Earth-Society Systems Research Group

Science-based Participatory Modeling for Common Pool ResourcesSuzanne A. PierceResearch Assistant Professor Assistant DirectorCenter for International Energy & Environmental Policy Digital Media CollaboratoryJackson School of Geosciences Center for Agile TechnologyThe University of Texas at Austin The University of Texas at Austin

KEY WORDSIntegrated Assessment, Decision Support, Scientific Uncertainty, Groundwater Management, Participatory ModelingPolicies that guide management of energy and earth resources are enmeshed in complex, dynamic conditions that involve understanding from across multiple disciplines or practices. Most often the knowledge that scientists and engineers have developed through years of research, is not communicated to the communities and policymakers who need it. People involved in making decisions about natural resource management problems need information to help them understand possible implications of the possible choices. Simultaneously, a social process that enables the stakeholder groups who are affected by decisions about the use and management of resources to address tensions and differences are needed to improve the outcomes and avoid conflict once a decision has been implemented.

Sustainability Science is use-inspired and oriented toward decision-making of all kinds (Matson, 2009; Miller, 2013) with the goal of informing choices about resource management. Balancing the choices requires searching for and finally building consensus about both the scientifically observed behaviors of systems and value judgments that frame the preferences of affected stakeholders. 1Common Pool Resources Come into Conflict

Texas Fires Shot in Water War ABQ Journal, 01/09/13

There is a need to convert our information to knowledgeAnd find engagement approaches that lead to informed decisions

As we define the term, common-pool resources (CPRs), where excluding potential appropriators or limiting appropriation rights of existing users is non-trivial and the yield of the resource is subtractable. (Ostrom et al, 1994)

2At the Boundary

KEY WORDSIntegrated Assessment, Decision Support, Scientific Uncertainty, Groundwater Management, Participatory ModelingWork sponsored by The Fulbright Nexus program of the US Department of State, the Mecesup program of the Chilean Government, the Jackson School Geology Foundation and The Longhorn Innovation Fund for Technology of The University of Texas at Austin.

3Policy (patterns)Science(uncertainty)Society

Network Analysis & Topical MapsSemantic AnalyticsCategories , Keywords & ObjectivesPlans , Policies, Regulations, Media, and Reports Data in text

GIS

Narrative & videoModelsObjectives

Solution Set

DataDecision support System

ScholarPractitioner

Socio-technical Systems are the People and Technology DyadMacroscope WorkflowEpisodic change . . . El Tatio eventsImages from TVN and open image sites online (need to incorporate references to them for technical presentations)News Article from http://www.rechargenews.com/energy/geothermal/article204662.eceAccessed on March 19, 2010

Socio-technical Systems are the People and Technology DyadPlanned ChangeEpisodicExecutive LeadPlannedAcute ResponsePrescriptive

A great deal of attention is now on the impacts and response to the large earthquake near ConcepcionYet, the aftershocks have affected the II Region as well. While politics may protect the geysers today there are other influences on the system.

March 4, 2010

6.3 magnitude earthquake Epicenter ~33 km west of El Tatio Geysers, Chile

And so, . . . The story continues.When research is properly organized every mans work is an aid to every other mans John Wesley Powell (per Dupree, 1940)Research and applications need to meld broad-based and detailed influences in participatory decision, or planning, processes are needed. Methods that aid the conversion of an amorphous problem into a more structured format are needed.Why transdisciplinary socio-technical tools are necessary to address natural resource managementSolutions are likely to be:Transdisciplinary requires domain experts look at a problem in a way that melds other disciplinary insight into their perspective. Socio-technical adapts disciplinary methodologies, viewing the broader issue interactivelyBecause UT-Austin began exploring Tatio in 2002There was a unique opportunity to Juxtaposing scientific observationswithsocial response and use of information.

Using Campaigns in March 2008October 2009December 2009UT-Austin has an existing dataset of observed data geochemical trendsAllowing for comparisons pre/post eventInterviews with stakeholders provide a rich description of perceived impacts from the event

How do these perceptions frame possible consequences and/or solutions?

Often labeled the Yellowstone of South America, this beautiful geyser basin is a rare natural resource that sees heavy visitation by Chilean and international tourists, and it is an important economic resource for the local towns and indigenous peoples. The springs have a unique chemistry and microbiological community of arsenic and UV tolerant organisms, and each spring feature has a dynamic microbial ecosystem very similar to Yellowstone. Unlike YNP however it has essentially no protection from the Chilean government, and is open to economic development. This includes geothermal power development, and the Chilean government issued leases an international consortium to develop a 100mw power plant 4 km from the geysers, a plan vehemently opposed by the local indigenous population. Drilling started early in 2009, and in June when we visited substantial progress had been made on the initial production well, and on retrofitting a set of old test wells from the 1970s for use as reinjection wells. But this region also has a rich cultural heritage, allure for tourism to the unique setting, and intrinsic scientific value due to the extreme environmental conditions for microbial life. This creates conditions for intense conflict over use and management

4

Tools*Groundwater Decision Support SystemSystems Dynamics models (Forio, Powesim, Netlogo)MODFLOW, GIS , Logical Decisions, etc.

*Heatseeker / MCSDSS*AquiferiumLogical DecisionsSci2LeximancerMacroscopic AnalysisDecision Support

Participatory Dialogue & Assessment

This research thrust explores group processes of informed dialog and deliberation to aid:Evaluations of scientific uncertainty and its relevance to policy/management decisionsConflict resolution and consensus solutionsEngage children and adults with earth resources

6Technology that connects relevant scientific information

Visual Analytics to Inspire Learning and Dialogue7Tools & Services:Case build toolsFile format conversionSatellite data classificationText miningAutomate parameter ID

Brown DogResources to Share:In prep or planned relaseGWDSS codePython scripts for semantic analysisHeatseeker version 1 on GitHub w/Software NoteVersion 2 simple case build functionality for JSON and GeoJSON in progress

Centro de Economa de los Recursos Naturales y el Medio Ambiente Centro de Excelencia en Geotermia de Los Andes (CEGA)

From this point forward Encompass is being developed to be:Shift the use of science to make it an informative tool by increasing access and interaction with relevant informationEstablish sustained dialogue to encourage deliberation about the future energy alternativesContinue remote sensing analysis by adding images, attempting to quantify volume, and addressing uncertainty.

Further analysis of meteorological, hydrochemical, and pumping data from El Abra records and lab results.

Integrate into cyberinfrastructure for science-based resource management in Chile.

8Collaborators:Universidad Catolica del NorteUniversidad de ChileGrupo Etnico-Cientifico AllyuIntl Institute for Sustained Dialogue, Kettering FoundationNatl Center for Groundwater Research & Training

Sponsors:Fulbright Nexus, US Department of StateGeology Foundation, Jackson School of Geosciences, Longhorn Fund for InnovationStart-Up Chile, CorfoPrograma de Visitantes, MecesupICE WaRM, Council of Exchange AustraliaNational Centre for Groundwater Research and TrainingThank You!

Centro de Economa de los Recursos Naturales y el Medio Ambiente Centro de Excelencia en Geotermia de Los Andes (CEGA)

From this point forward Encompass is being developed to be:Shift the use of science to make it an informative tool by increasing access and interaction with relevant informationEstablish sustained dialogue to encourage deliberation about the future energy alternativesContinue remote sensing analysis by adding images, attempting to quantify volume, and addressing uncertainty.

Further analysis of meteorological, hydrochemical, and pumping data from El Abra records and lab results.

Integrate into cyberinfrastructure for science-based resource management in Chile.

9