Science Advances Our Understanding of Headwater Systems

Trim the Tribs Research

Les Stanfield Ecohealth Solutions

Nottawasaga Inn, November 16th, 2015

Background

“The only effects that matter are cumulative effects”

(Merriam pers. Comm)

Background: 2000 – 2014

• Input variables: – Fish (species and community); benthos;

temperature; baseflow; peak flows; habitat • Built predictive models based on:

– Land use – Catchment variables (geology, climate, area, etc.) – Barriers – Instream habitat – Biological interactions

Results: Lots of Models

Other Stressors: Fragmentation

• Dendritic Connectivity Index: – Mahlum et al. 2014 - Lake Ontario Tribs, – Stanfield - Lake Simcoe – Edge et al. - TRCA Conclusion:

Fragmentation reduces resiliency & recolonization

For fish But is less important than

land use

Proximity an Riparian Condition Analysis

• Upland area land use similar predictive power as Riparian areas….. I.e. Headwaters are critical

Headwaters are the missing link

Trim the Tribs1

• Workshop 2013 Questions:

– Which tribs are most important to ecosystem integrity

– Which and How many tribs can be “pruned” • Developed Study Design and

proposal • Funding NSERC 2014

1. Cumulative effects from alteration of headwater drainage features and the loss of ecosystem integrity of river networks : http://www.trca.on.ca/dotAsset/190979.pdf

Cumulative Effects in a Riverscape Across Scales

• John Richardson UBC (lead) Lenka Kuglerova, Brian Kielstra

• Dan Moore - UBC

• Jim Buttle – Trent Ibrahim Rashid

• Antoine Morin (UofO) • Bernadette Charpentier • Laura Del Giudice (TRCA) • Les Stanfield

Headwater/forest specialist riparian health and processes Spatial patterns, nesting, benthics Hydrologic changes (processes) Predictive changes in flows SWAT predictive modeling Understanding variance in fish and benthos Integration with Policy P.I.A.

Nested Analysis Approach Study Scale Measurable

indicator/protocol Predictor Variables

Headwater Segment (fishless)

Headwater condition - protocol sediment/flows/connectivity

Segment Condition - GIS measured &/or supplemented with rare features (GWU, etc.)

Mid-reach Segment Biological indicators (Fish/benthos) and possible diagnostic indicators (e.g., water quality, substrate etc..)

Weighted condition to a point on the network e.g., f( C)= f(A1) + f(A2)+ f(A3) +I f= HDF, C= mainstream, I= local conditions

Watershed Summary statistic for mainstem (e.g., flows)

Weighted condition to a downstream point on the network (i.e., outlet)

Understanding Hierarchical Structure HDF Sites

Brian Kielstra

Valued Ecosystem Components

Fish, benthos and others….

Understanding longitudinal Sources of Variance

• Riparian soil biochemistry, more process data

• Expand in 2016

Brian Kielstra, Lenka Kuglerova

• WSC-hydata data to validate mainstem

• OSAP headwater & baseflow spot discharges

• Flashiness • Beta version

Soil and Water Assessment Tool

Ibrahim Rashid, Jim Buttle

Variances in biota • Antoine Morin, Élysabeth Théberge, Marie-

Ève André • SMARTER datasets

• benthics & fish

Road Density=1.25 km/km2 % Intense Ag=60% Predicted %EPT deviation-12.4%

Define Threshold at, say, α=0.10 for Fail status

-18.8%

In Reference conditions, 10% of observations are below -18.8% from expected

Estimate risk of “Fail” if catchment is developed

(60% intense Ag and Road Density of 1.25 km/km2= -12.4% EPT deviation)

Reference Condition Sites

Sites Developed causing a 12.4% reduction of %EPT

Estimate risk of “Fail” if catchment is developed

(60% intense Ag and Road Density of 1.25 km/km2= -12.4% EPT deviation)

-18.8%

If developed at this intensity the risk of Fail would be 49.9%

Current Work:

• Expanding analysis to the rest of southern Ontario

• Testing multiple metrics • Better understand temporal and spatial

variability influence on measures of states

Linkages and Partnerships • Bruce McVicar et al (UofW)

– understanding sediment transport in urban systems in a changing climate

• Andrea Kirkwood, Brian Kilstra – Understanding decomposition processes

• Don Jackson, Chris Edge, Marie Jose-Fortin, Cindy Chu, et al., – Fish assemblage and climate change

Etc.. Etc.., Etc.

Next Steps: Implementation • Preliminary analysis of spatial patterns

– Part of gap analysis • Continue to analyze indicators (VECs) • Field Work 2016 • Build the integrated models that

– Incorporate scale effects – Processes (eg hydrology, sediment transport – Support with process based research

Final Vision • Build/enhance a Decision Support System • Incorporate LID & wetland restoration • Incorporate Ecohealth metrics • Implement within municipally based user

pays software

Thank you

Contact me at Les.Stanfield@outlook.com

Check out:

Headwater papers http://www.trca.on.ca/the-living-city/water-flood-

management/headwater-study.dot Modeling papers at:

http://www.trca.on.ca/the-living-city/monitoring/southern-ontario-stream-monitoring-research-team.dot