schools after labor day

7/27/2019 Schools After Labor Day

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Cover photos courtesy o the Maryland Ofce o Tourism

I. Executive SummaryII. School Calendar Impact III. Direct Economic Impact

Tourism Impact Local Family Recreational Activities Impact

IV. Conclusion

V. Appendix: Methodology

Table of Contents


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A decision to extend the traditional summer vacation beyond the Labor Day holiday or all publiccounty school systems in Maryland would have a positive net economic and revenue impact or businesses

and governments across the state. It would de er the start o the new academic year by six to 14 days or schoolyear 2013-2014, depending upon the jurisdiction. In so doing, it would mitigate, or many Maryland amilies,the natural scheduling constraints that are created by the placement o the Labor Day holiday the longtime,traditional capstone to the summer tourist season within the con nes o the public school calendar. WhileLabor Day weekend in Maryland is more commonly associated with amily trips to resort destinations such asOcean City and Deep Creek Lake, and or good reason, the a orementioned time window also coincides withother major events occurring throughout the state. Tey include, but are not limited to, the Maryland State Fairin imonium, the Grand Prix o Baltimore and our weeknight home dates at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

By eliminating such constraints, an estimated 8.5% o the 514,680 a ected amilies--those with school agechildren--would take either a new day trip or a new overnight trip to one o Marylands three top destinations(Baltimore City, Deep Creek Lake, or Ocean City). Another 5.2% would take a new out-o -state day or overnighttrip, and the remaining amilies would devote at least one additional day to a amily recreational activity withintheir own jurisdiction. Te net e ect or Maryland is an additional $74.3 million in direct economic activity,including $3.7 million in new wages and a separate $7.7 million in state and local revenue. It should also beexpressly noted that this estimate only includes the direct economic and tax impacts. Incorporating the indirectand induced activity would result in a signi cant upward revision o the total impact.

Executive Summary


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Currently, all Maryland school districts begin the school year earlier than Labor Day. While the majority o Marylands twenty- our school districts begin one week prior to Labor Day, some begin even earlier. Afer

weighing the number o additional school days by a ected households, Maryland school districts would averagean additional 8.7 days o summer vacation i the next school year began on September 3, the day afer Labor Day.able 2, below, shows the 2013-2014 school starting dates and the additional number o summer vacation daysi school started the day afer Labor Day in each jurisdiction. Under Maryland law, schools are required to beopen or at least 180 actual school days and a minimum o 1,080 school hours. In order to adhere to the statute,this report assumes additional summer vacation days added to an individual school district would be accountedor during each school districts current school year calendar. Tus, the school calendar change would allow oran expansion in the number o summer vacation days, as opposed to a shif rom one part o the summer toanother.

School Calendar Impact


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Te mandate o a post-Labor Day school starting date or the 2013-2014 school year would result in$74.3 million in new direct economic activity and approximately $7.7 million in new state and local government

revenues. More detail about the composition o the impact is shown in able 3: net economic activity, exclusiveo new wages, would increase by $70.6 million, state revenue would increase by $5.2 million, local governmentrevenue would increase by $2.4 million, and $3.7 million in new wages would be realized. State and localrevenues include personal and corporate income taxes, sales taxes, accommodations taxes, admissions andamusement taxes, as well as certain ees.

Te increase in economic activity stems rom two components: tourism and amily recreational activities.Te tourism component accounts or new day and overnight trips to Ocean City, Deep Creek Lake, BaltimoreCity and out-o -state. Accounting or $22.2 million in economic activity, the tourism impact represents 30% o the total new economic activity. Further details regarding the impact or each destination are provided later inthis section.

Family recreational spending accounts or the remaining impact. Family recreational activities includeclose-to-home activities such as going to the movies, enjoying a dinner out, hosting a BBQ, attending theMaryland State Fair, attending a baseball game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards or at one o the states multipleminor-league venues and a myriad o other, similar activities. Tis impact is estimated at over $52.1 million, orapproximately 70% o new economic activity.

Direct Economic Impact


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While Maryland boasts many tourism destinations, Ocean City, Deep Creek Lake and Baltimore City are the State o Marylands largest tourism centers and the ocus or this component o the study. Using severalmulti-attribute models which incorporate actors such as income, geography and existing tourism statistics(more detail in methodology section), this report estimates the economic impact that a post-Labor Day startingdate or the upcoming school year would have on these three tourism destinations. Te aggregate economicactivity o these three destinations would account or the vast majority o the in-state tourism impact o astarting date change or the 2013-2014 school year.

Tourism Impact

Ocean City

As Marylands top amily destination, Ocean City visitors experience a classic beach vacation. Families can enjoy over ten miles o beach, where shing and water sports are bounti ul.With just under three miles o boardwalk, amilies can play at arcades, shop at boutiques, rideamusement rides and dine at restaurants. Additionally, Ocean City boasts several world class gol courses. Lastly, the extension o summer vacation would allow more visitors to enjoy Ocean CitysLabor Day Weekend Arts and Crafs Festival.

A post-Labor Day school starting date would produce over 21,000 new trips to OceanCity. As shown in able 5, Ocean Citys economic activity would increase by nearly $15 million,accounting or 20.1% o the total new economic activity. Due to this increase in economicactivity, over $930,000 in new wages would be generated. Ocean City would see a signi cantamount o new wages because o its large number o seasonal employees. Tis wage increase isnot necessarily correlated with new jobs because it is likely that seasonal employment would beextended to accommodate the longer summer vacation period.


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Boasting the Inner Harbor, the National Aquarium, numerous museums, shops andrestaurants, Baltimore City welcomed over 22 million visitors in 2011. Such a diverse range o optionsand Baltimores geographic location, generally bordering or very close to the states population

centers, make it a popular destination or resident day trips. In addition to these general tourismactivities, a large component o Baltimore Citys popularity originates with the citys sports teams andsporting events. A particularly signi cant occurrence in this analysis is the timing o the Grand Prixo Baltimore. Te Grand Prix includes many amily- riendly activities and the race event takes placeover the Labor-Day weekend.

A post-Labor Day school starting date would bring more than 20,000 new amily visitorsto Baltimore City--17,670 or day trips and 2,962 or overnight stays. As shown in able 6, below,Baltimore Citys economic activity would increase by over $16 million, constituting 22.8% o thetotal new economic activity. We estimate approximately $650,000 o new wages would be generatedrom this increase in economic activity. It is important to note that Baltimore Citys wage impact issmaller as a share o new economic activity relative to the other tourist destinations. Tis is largely attributable to the year-round nature o Baltimores tourism industry relative to the other twodestinations.

As the largest reshwater lake in Maryland, Deep Creek Lake welcomes an estimated 1.1million annual visitors. Families visiting Deep Creek Lake can participate in a wide variety o outdooractivities including gol ng, boating, hiking, kayaking and shing. Families also can enjoy the beauty o Deep Creek Lake by simply relaxing by the re or taking in the breathtaking scenery.

A post-Labor Day school starting date would produce nearly 2,000 new amily visitors toDeep Creek Lake. As shown in able 7, below, Deep Creek Lakes economic activity would increase by over $2.3 million or 3.3% o the total new economic activity. Additionally, approximately $155,000 o new wages would be generated. Similar to Ocean Citys new wages, these do not necessarily accountor new jobs, since it is likely that seasonal employment would be extended to accommodate thelonger summer vacation period. Due to the proximity o Deep Creek Lake to Marylands populationcenters and visitor statistics, the model predicts ewer trips to this destination relative to the othertwo destinations.

Baltimore City

Deep Creek Lake


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Out of State and Baseline In State Offsets

Although the change to a post-Labor Day school starting date would have a gross positivedirect economic impact o over $33.5 million or the tourist destinations, approximately $11.3

million in economic activity must be subtracted to account or resident spending that would occurout o state due to a new vacation and or spending that would have occurred in the absence o thein-state trips. We estimate that 26,703 Maryland amilies would travel outside o the state as a resulto the longer summer vacation--13,926 or an overnight trip and 12,777 or a day trip. Te loss o the economic activity or those residents totals $3.5 million. A larger impact stems rom the in statesubstitution e ect: the $7.8 million in oregone spending that would have occurred had the residentsnot taken an in-state day or overnight trip. For both instances, the counteracting spending is relatedto daily spending or items that would not be purchased in the wake o a new trip, generally non-durable types o expenditures. Te $11.3 million lost is more than o set by the tourism and non-tourism related gains, making every jurisdiction a net positive.

Local Family Recreational Activies Impact

While a signi cant impact would be elt within the tourism destinations, the larger and broader e ect isattributable to amilies engaging in at-home activities which they could not have otherwise enjoyed, or amily recreational activities. We assume amilies that do not take a signi cant day or overnight trip would eachintroduce one new amily recreational activity per week o additional summer vacation time. Examples o suchactivities include a trip to the movie theater, a dinner out, hosting a BBQ, attending the Maryland State Fair or a

myriad o other such activities.

able 8, below, highlights an economic non-tourism bene t o over $52 million across all regions o Maryland, accounting or roughly 70% o the new economic activity. Tere ore, extending the summer seasonby a weighted average o 8.7 days would result in a net increase in economic activity across all jurisdictions inMaryland.


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1Eastern MD: Cecil, Kent, Queen Annes, albot, Caroline, Dorchester, Wicomico, Worcester, Somerset; Central MD: Har ord, Carroll,Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Howard, Anne Arundel; Southern MD: St. Marys, Charles, Calvert; Capitol MD: Frederick, Mont-gomery, Prince Georges; Western MD: Garrett, Allegany, Washington

Te extension o the traditional summer vacation beyond the Labor Day holiday or all public county school systems in Maryland would have a substantial positive impact on both the state and local governmentseconomies. Tis extension would generate $74.3 million in new direct economic activity, including $3.7 millionin additional wages, and boost state and local government revenues by $7.7 million. Perhaps most importantly,every jurisdiction in the state stands to gain an economic bene t rom this change.

Additionally, it must be stressed that the actual impact o a change to a post-Labor Day school start date islikely to be higher than the estimates in this report. Our model does not take into account any multiplier e ectrom the direct increase in economic activity, or this reason alone, the estimates risk is entirely to the upside.Also, or any given year, the date on which Labor Day alls would alter the number o days in which summer vacations would be impacted. For this estimate, the 2013-2014 school year served as the basis, with Labor Day alling on the second day o the month; in any given year Labor Day could be on the rst or the seventh, leavingroom, more ofen than not, or more available summer vacation days and more economic activity. Overall, itis likely that the increase in economic activity estimated by the model is conservative and the actual economicimpact would be higher.

Conclusion


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Te number o amilies a ected by the proposed school year calendar change was calculated using USBureau o the Census data and student data rom the National Center or Education Statistics. A ected amiliesby jurisdiction served as the basis or each o the models, allowing the introduction o varying income levelsand geographical attributes. Afer determining the number o amilies impacted, assumptions were made todetermine the number o amilies taking a new summer vacation as a result o the additional summer vacationdays. Although most amilies did not take another summer vacation, it was assumed that their average spendinghabits would be altered by the newly available summer vacation time.

Several multi-attribute models incorporating income, geography and pre erence (based on visitorin ormation) were developed to determine the destination or new summer vacations. Destinations includedin the models were Baltimore City, Deep Creek Lake, Ocean City and out-o -state. Te out-o -state actor wasassumed to be directly related to income and pre erence. Income was weighed higher because, on average, travel

expenses are greater when traveling out o state. Both a day trip model and an overnight model were developed.Te day-trip model weighed both income and geography equally, while the overnight model weighed incomemore heavily.

Data was collected on tourism spending in Baltimore City, Deep Creek Lake and Ocean City. Te data,collected rom Marylands Department o Business and Economic Development, the City o Ocean CitysComprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR), Garrett County Chamber o Commerce and Visit Baltimore,allowed assumptions to be made regarding average spending per amily in each destination.

Using data rom the Bureau o Labor Statistics, United States Annual Consumer Expenditure database,we calculated an average spending at home basis or amily recreational activities (entertainment, ood away rom home, etc.). Tis allowed or a new variable to be calculated or marginal spending on amily recreationalactivities. For the tourism o setting expenditures, similar data was used. Te model estimated that every regionin Maryland would bene t rom a net increase in economic activity due to the change in the school calendar.

Te actual impact o a change to a post Labor Day school start date is likely to di er rom the estimatesin this report. Te model does not take into account any multiplier e ect rom the direct increase in economicactivity. Additionally, or any given year, the date on which Labor Day alls would alter the number o days inwhich summer vacations would be impacted. Overall, it is likely that the increase in economic activity estimatedby the model is conservative and the actual economic impact may be higher.

Appendix: Methodology


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