School-to-work Transitions in a Liberal Economy

Alison WolfKing’s College London

The Modern Economy

• Free Trade• Free Movement in some regions (notably most of the

EU), though heavy restrictions in global context• Non-directed labour• Minimal industrial policy• Shift, in developed world, from fast growth in class 1

and 2 occupations to slow growth/steady state• Decline in skilled manual trades – move to the

hourglass economy

The modern education system

• Increased average length: completion of upper secondary normal in all developed countries

• Rapid rise in higher education numbers• Delayed specialisation• High returns to formal qualifications, absolutely and

relatively• Wide variations in nature and status of

apprenticeship. Full-time ‘vocational’ pathways generally common and rarely high-status pre-18

University enrolments at either end of the twentieth century

Modern labour markets

• European countries and Japan marked by dual labour markets: core of full-time jobs with security and high benefits and periphery of low-security, low-paid, short-term jobs

• North America: more fluid labour market, much less job security, high levels of churn, greater movement in numbers of jobs year on year

The specific case of the UK

• Very low apprenticeship numbers for under-18s: apprenticeship almost destroyed in 1980s, very partial return to health in 2000s

• Very high levels of regional inequality• General stability in upper secondary academic

route and constant reform of upper secondary vocational route

• Open access for EU accession state nationals as well as longer-standing EU members

Employers’ view of where the formally qualified are to be found: 1950

Low ability High ability

Graduates

Employers’ view of where the formally qualified are to be found: 2000

Low ability High ability

Graduates

Employers’ perceptions of the labour market: 2050?

Low quality High quality

Graduates

Overall figures conceal huge variations

Between and within regions and counties or cities

August 2012:16-24 years: % claiming

Northumberland

County Durham

Caerphilly

Derry

Sandwell

Mid Suffolk

Wiltshire

South Oxfordshire

8.4

8.2

10

13

12.1

4.7

3.7

2.2

% 16-24 claiming: London area 8.12

Thurrock 6.2

Ashford 5.2

Reigate 3.1

Lewisham 7.5

Brent 6.5

Newham 7.5

Camden 3

Greenwich 6.4

Returns to vocational awards

• Poor to specific occupational awards obtained in fulltime training/education

• Middling to ‘quasi-vocational’ (eg BTEC)• Good to ‘proper’ apprenticeships: - reflects

return to work experience, demonstrated persistence as much as to specific skills –

• Change in trade/occupation the rule rather than the exception

The challenge

• Improve apprenticeships• Increase value of FT-based vocational• Recognise reality of modern labour market –

need to retrain/move between sectors• Address disappearance of youth labour

market – can decline be reversed?