School of Earth & EnvironmentSUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Application of a decision theatre concept to the development of an agent-based modelCatherine Bale, Ruth Bush, Katy Roelich, Jonathan Busch and Mark Powell

Policy Modelling in Practice, CRESS Workshop

8th December 2014

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Outline

1. Context – policy relevant research questions

2. Decision theatre methodology

• 1st Workshop• 2nd Workshop

3. Insights from methodology

4. Discussion

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District heating

• 38 per cent of all CO2 emissions are from heat-related activities

• We spend around £33 billion annually on heat

• Fuel poverty is a key concern

• Around 80% of our demand for heat is supplied by natural gas

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Agents in the heat system

• Local authorities have a key role to play, but host of other agents involved.

• What policies could enable local authorities to develop district heating?

DECCEnergy

companies

LAs LEPs

Other public sector

Commercial

Network operators

Households

Commercial

Communities

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Decision theatre

• Originally developed in Arizona State University, and used by Newcastle University to look at flood risk management.

• Prototypes for making decisions in the face of uncertainty.

• Actively engages researchers and leaders to visualise solutions to complex problems.

• Uses data visualisation, modelling and simulation

References:

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY, Decision theatre network, https://dt.asu.edu/home.

WALSH, C. L., GLENDINNING, S., DAWSON, R. J., ENGLAND, K., MARTIN, M., WATKINS, C. L., WILSON, R., MCLOUGHLIN, A., GLENIS, V. & PARKER, D. 2013. Collaborative platform to facilitate engineering decision-making. Proceedings of the ICE-Engineering Sustainability, 166, 98-107.

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Decision theatre

Workshop 1 – Oct 2014

• ‘Pre-decision’ theatre – to identify actors, decision process for model development.

Workshop 2 – Spring 2015

• Decision theatre – to use the model with stakeholders.

Used to explore the district heating development process

Pre-planning and heat mapping

phase

Feasibility studies and stakeholder negotiations

Business model

development and finance

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Workshop 1 - Aims

For participants:

• Sharing and learning across different perspectives

• Opportunity to reflect on their organisation’s work with district heating

For us:

• Contribute to research and development of ABM

• Analysis of policy and development processes for district heating

Chatham house rules

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Workshop 1 - Participants

Local authority

Hospital energy manager

University energy manager

Community energy group representative

Energy company

Energy from waste plant manager

Local authority

Local authority

Local stakeholders:

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Workshop 1 - Participants

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Workshop 1 - Activities

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Workshop 1 - Feedback

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Workshop 2 - Plans

• New decision theatre suit as part of Newcastle University’s Science Central.

• Participants will use ABM and other decision-support tools to explore policy interventions.

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Insights

• Value to participants as well as researchers – space to step back from day-to-day.

• Early engagement in model development – test framework.

• Participants on board for next workshop:• More faith in the model having been through process?

• Pre-decision theatre as useful (more so?) as final decision theatre?

• Decision theatre concept has clear benefits for policy-relevant social simulation -> incorporating participatory modelling.

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Discussion

• Use of decision theatre methods in policy-making context?

School of Earth & EnvironmentSUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Thank you for your attention!

Contact: c.s.e.bale@leeds.ac.uk

Twitter: @EnergyFrinWebsite: http://sure-infrastructure.leeds.ac.uk