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SCHOOL CHOICE DETERMINANTS, DECLINING ENROLMENT ISSUES AND STRATEGIES:

A Review of the Literature

Academic, Research & Information Services Toronto District School Board

February 2015 Report No. 14/15-09

TITLE: School Choice Determinants, Declining Enrolment Issues and Strategies: A Review of the Literature

AUTHOR: Sofya Malik Copyright © Toronto District School Board (February 2015)

Cite as: Malik, S. (2015). School choice determinants, declining enrolment issues and strategies:

A review of the literature. (Research Report No. 14/15-09). Toronto, Ontario, Canada: Toronto District School Board

Reproduction of this document for use in the schools of the Toronto District School Board is encouraged.

For any other purpose, permission must be requested and obtained in writing from: Academic, Research & Information Services Toronto District School Board 1 Civic Centre Court, Lower Level Etobicoke, ON M9C 2B3 Fax: 416-394-4946 Every reasonable precaution has been taken to trace the owners of copyrighted material and to make due acknowledgement. Any omission will gladly be rectified in future printings.

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SCHOOL CHOICE DETERMINANTS, DECLINING ENROLMENT ISSUES AND STRATEGIES: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This literature review was conducted in response to the Toronto District School Board’s (TDSB)

request to learn from research related to school choice determinants and declining enrolment.

This request indicates a need to gain insights from the evidence and experiences of national

and international school jurisdictions and how they address issues of declining enrolment and

school closures.

The following core research questions guide the literature review:

What are the determinants of school choice? What factors affect school choice for

parents and/or students?

How are jurisdictions addressing issues of declining enrolment?

Although the focus of the study is two-fold - school choice determinants and declining

enrolment, it includes literature on related issues that emerge as part of the larger debate.

This literature review consists of a background about school choice and declining enrolment, a

discussion about the types of school choice in Canada and Organisation for Economic Co-

operation and Development (OECD) countries, determinants of school choice, consequences of

declining enrolment and strategies used by different jurisdictions. The literature review

discusses the types of school choice available in Canada, with a focus on school choice options

relevant to the Ontario context.

School choice is an educational issue that has fueled countless, often polarized, debates in

North America (Feinberg & Lubienski, 2008). The heated nature of the issue is tied to underlying

concepts of democracy and educational equity. Scholars such as Musset (2012) state that the

main objective, of making school choice options available for every student is to “level the

playing field”, allowing more disadvantaged children to access high quality schools they would

otherwise not be able to attend (p. 8). Choice options are less available to parents who are

socio-economically disadvantaged, and greater awareness among policymakers is needed to

consider the needs of diverse families of all income levels (Bosetti, 2004).

Matters of school choice are tied closely to issues of declining enrolment - although, as the

literature suggests, the correlation is not always direct. With many Toronto schools operating at

low capacity and concerns raised about school closures, declining enrolment poses significant

challenges for school communities. According to People for Education (2014), 23 of Ontario’s

72 boards are under 65% the capacity benchmark set by the province. Moreover, current

2 SCHOOL CHOICE DETERMINANTS, DECLINING ENROLMENT ISSUES AND STRATEGIES:

A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

utilization rates in 10 Ontario school boards is less than 50%, compared to others in the Greater

Toronto Area (GTA) that operate with over 100% capacity (People for Education, 2012).

The literature reveals inconclusive and often contradictory findings about the effects of school

choice on student achievement and educational outcomes. On one hand, scholars (e.g.,

Forster, 2013; Card, Dooley & Payne, 2008; Bosetti, 2004) strongly correlate greater choice with

better student achievement. On the other hand, scholars weigh in on complex issues spanning

school choice around the world (e.g., Musset, 2012) and share inconclusive findings about the

impact of school choice on student achievement outcomes. There are widely held perceptions

among educators, parents and advocates that greater school choice levels the playing field and

improves academic achievement. However, based on increased school choice options, the

literature does not find a direct impact on increased school choice on student achievement and

school enrolment.

Despite contentious debates, school choice in Canada is stable (Holmes, 2008). Bosetti (2004)

aptly sums up the different perspectives on school choice: the pressure for more diversity in

schools, more efficiency in schools, greater parental freedom in choosing, and an interest in

providing equal opportunity to students of all socio-economic backgrounds. When it comes to

school choice in Ontario, however, we actually have a lot more school choice than often

perceived by the public. In general, families tend to value their neighbourhood community and

school (Bosetti, 2004) and feel they deserve the right to a variety of school choice options

(Betts, et al., 2006; Forster, 2013).

From the literature reviewed, we can conclude that there have been many periods of declining

enrolment in North America, with no “magic wand” solutions to address low enrolment in

schools. There is no consensus about strategies that address declining enrolment and no

obvious solutions. This may be largely due to the nature of schooling – for example, fixed costs

and neighbourhood attachments.

Lessons we can gain from a retrospective perspective on enrolment projects teach us to

exercise caution when looking at enrolment projections. We can understand that enrolment

patterns are more often a reflection of wider population-based trends rather than individual

school or school board-based practices.


3

INTRODUCTION

This literature review was conducted in response to the Toronto District School Board’s (TDSB)

request to learn from research related to school choice determinants and declining enrolment.

This request indicates a need to gain insights from the evidence and experiences of national

and international school jurisdictions and how they address issues of declining enrolment and

school closures.

School choice is an educational issue that has fueled countless - often polarized, debates in

North America (Feinberg & Lubienski, 2008). The heated nature of the issue is tied to underlying

concepts of democracy and educational equity. With many Toronto schools operating at low

capacity and concerns raised about school closures, declining enrolment poses significant

challenges for school communities.

In addition to school choice, concerns around school closures remain prevalent in large urban

centres. According to People for Education (2014), 23 of Ontario’s 72 boards are under 65% the

capacity benchmark set by the province. Matters of school choice are tied closely to issues of

declining enrolment - although the correlation is not always direct.

Throughout this review, aspects pertinent to the GTA and Ontario context are considered. The

review is framed by examining school choice types, determinants, and strategies used to

address declining enrolment. The following core research questions guide the literature review:

What are the determinants of school choice? What factors affect school choice by

parents and/or students?

How are jurisdictions addressing issues of declining enrolment?

Although the focus of the study is two-fold - school choice determinants and strategies, it

includes literature on related issues that emerge as part of the larger debate.

This literature review consists of a background about school choice and declining enrolment, a

discussion of the types of school choice in Canada and OECD countries, determinants of school

choice, consequences of declining enrolment, and strategies used by different jurisdictions.



METHODOLOGY The review was conducted using an Internet search strategy relying on search engines such as

Google, Google Scholar, and the University of Toronto (U of T) libraries. The researcher

developed a scoping template to record search strings, and reviewed relevant articles that met

the inclusion criteria. The following inclusion criteria were established in consultation with the

TDSB’s Academic, Research and Information Services department:

2004 -2014 inclusive, with relevant references to literature related to historical context.

predominantly scholarly academic articles (books, journals, etc.).

a focus on Canada and North America, with some international research.

The search and selection focused on North America, but includes Organisation for Economic

Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. The literature review provides a wide angle

perspective about school choice.

BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT OF THE STUDY

A recent OECD report by Musset (2012) calls school choice one of the mostly hotly debated

issues in education. Over the past 25 years, more than two-thirds of OECD countries have

increased school choice opportunities for parents (Musset, 2012). School choice programs are

considered to be among the most successful and well-known school reforms in the field of

education (Forster, 2013). According to Musset (2012), school choice in OECD countries is not

only prevalent, but on the rise.

Debates about school choice can be traced back to the 1950s, to the work of Milton Friedman

The Role of Government in Education that discusses school board solutions to attract students

to schools with low enrolment (Musset, 2012). The longest history of school choice in the U.S.

Parental Choice Program can be traced back to the 1990s in the city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin

(Chakrabarti, 2007).

Although available literature on the historical context of Ontario is limited, we can infer from a

Royal Ontario Commission on Learning (1994) report that little has changed on the issue of

declining enrolment in the province in the past 30 years. The Commission points to declining

birth rates accompanied a shift from the 1960s “baby-boom” as factors contributing to the

overall declining enrolment trend. McWilliams (2008) agrees that during the 1960s, Ontario

enjoyed a time of rapid expansion of schools, increasing birth rates, and teacher demand - an


5

era to which the 1970s stands in stark contrast. In fact, a group of researchers (see Hargreaves

et al., 1993) view the mid-1970s as ushering in an age of pessimism, fueled by decreased

education funding, an oversupply of teachers, school closures, and declining enrolment (as

cited in the Royal Ontario Commission on Learning Report, 1994). Moreover, the Final Report of

the Commission on Declining Enrolment (1978) by Robert Jackson notes implications of

declining enrolment as effecting the school organization, funding, and staffing (as cited in the

Royal Commission on Learning Report, 1994).

With a change to the Education Act in the late 1990s, Ontarians were offered school choice at

par with their British Columbian compatriots (Brown, 2004). However, recent literature

emphasizes that Alberta offers the most amount of school choice in Canada, with less emphasis

being placed on the availability of school choice in Ontario (Maguire, 2006; Clemens, et al.,

2014; Holmes, 2008; Davies & Aurini, 2011).

What is school choice?

From the literature reviewed, there are no clear and consistent definitions of the terms ‘school

choice’ and ‘enrolment.’ Feinberg and Lubienski (2008) provide lengthy discussions about

school choice. They frame school choice definitions around democratic principles and universal

programs of school choice.

Musset (2012) distinguishes between two kinds of school choice approaches: universal and

targeted programmes. Musset (2012) defines universal programmes (e.g., universal voucher,

open enrolment, etc.) as being based on democratic principles that parents have the right to

choose the school for their children. Targeted programs (e.g., vouchers for low income

students) assume that there is an embedded disadvantage for lower socio-economic status

(SES) students and that increased choice will allow them to attend higher performing schools.

This notion is based on beliefs that the “generalized introduction of market mechanisms can

make schooling systems more efficient” (p. 25).

Overall declining enrolment patterns

In Toronto, declining enrolment may be resulting from larger population trends such as

decreased fertility rates and high mobility (Brown, 2014; McWilliams, 2008). Declining enrolment

may also be the result of the high cost of living in the downtown core, where families seek more

affordable housing alternatives and “space” in suburban neighbourhoods within and outside of



the GTA. These larger population-based trends point to factors that are outside of the realm of

influence of schools and school boards.

A People for Education Declining Enrolment Report (2012) indicates a steady decline in fertility

rates over the past decade, with families not able to afford city and moving to the suburbs for

affordability, housing, more space, etc. Amidst an overall population decline predicted between

2012 and 2020, People for Education (2012) project an increased population growth in

suburban GTA.

People for Education (2012) note the following about elementary and secondary school

enrolment:

the rate and effects of enrolment change vary widely across the province;

enrolment has declined more rapidly at the elementary school level over the past

five years; and,

enrolment projections predict a decline in secondary school enrolment, as

elementary cohorts progress to secondary school over the next few years.

The literature shows a consistent trend of declining enrolment rates that are more prevalent at

the secondary school level across North America.

Apart from enrolment declines, more school choice options are available in secondary schools

rather than elementary schools. Musset (2012) agrees, pointing out that OECD countries offer

parental choice of schools in their local neighbourhoods.


7

ENROLMENT BY TYPE OF SCHOOL There are 72 public school boards across the province, comprised of 31 English Public, 29

English Catholic, 4 French Public, and 8 French Catholic boards (Ministry of Education, 2013).

Although there is an almost equal number of English Catholic school boards, school enrolment

in Ontario is dominated by the English Public system.

Musset (2012, p. 9) provides the most comprehensive definitions of public and private schools:

Public school: a school is classified as public if it is controlled and managed directly by a public education authority (“traditional public schools”), or controlled and managed by a governing body, whose members are either appointed by a public authority or elected by public franchise (“autonomous public schools”).

Private school: a school is classified as private if it is controlled and managed by a non-governmental organization or most of the members of its governing board are not appointed by a public authority.

o A government-dependent private school is an institution that receives more than 50 % of its funding from government agencies.

o A government-independent private school is an institution that receives less than 50 % of its funding from government agencies

These definitions are applicable to all OECD countries. However, this literature reviews remain

with public education.

Types of School Choice in Canada

School choice in Canada consists of the following options (Milke, 2010; Davies & Aurini, 2011;

Musset, 2012; Clemens, Palacios, Loyer & Fathers, 2014):

1. public schools by language (Anglophone, Francophone)

2. public separate or religious schools (predominantly Roman Catholic)

3. private/independent schools (only 6% of students in Canada: Davies & Aurini, 2011).

4. charter schools (only in Alberta)

5. home schooling (only 0.2 to 1 percent of the population in Canada: Davies & Aurini, 2011).

Only the province of Alberta has charter schools and provides subsidies for home schooling and

blended programs where students can take some courses at home and others at school (Milke,

2010). Alberta is also the only province providing direct funding to home schooling families

(Hepburn 2005).



Furthermore, Davies and Aurini (2011, p. 462) frame school choice in the following way:

publicly funded schools with curricular specialties or religious mandates, and schools that lie beyond catchment boundaries

family selection of residence - parents can exercise choice even while enrolling a child in a “regular” public school by choosing among those schools, which vary widely in their achievement levels and reputations

school performance indicators. Choice policies typically have provisions for posting information about aggregate student achievement on board or provincial websites, and for publicizing this information through the mass media.

Overall similarities exist in the types of schools across OECD countries. A vast majority of the

literature focused on charter schools and voucher programs. However, this study is concerned

with the Ontario context. Therefore, of particular interest are issues related to public schools,

private schools, and Catholic schools.

Public Schools vs. Private Schools. There are two kinds of school choice in OECD countries,

according to Musset (2012): those countries who are predominantly public and the other side of

that is countries where education is mostly private. Musset (2012) points to initiatives that aim to

expand school choice in the public sector, including: specialized schools, autonomous public

schools, and publicly-funded private schools. Furthermore, Musset (2012) shares trends across

OECD countries, such as:

85% of students are enrolled in public education, with enrolment in government -dependant private schools exceeding 10% of all students at the lower secondary school level in 12 countries (the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Chile, Australia, Korea, Spain, France, Denmark, Luxembourg, Hungary, and Sweden);

enrolment in government-independent schools exceeds 10% in Australia, Korea, Japan, and Mexico; and,

more than 50% of students in the Netherlands, Ireland, and Chile are enrolled in privately managed schools. In contrast, in Turkey, Iceland, and Norway, more than 98% of students attend schools that are managed publicly (p. 9).

Altogether, enrolment in private schools remains slight, compared to the vast majority of

students attending Ontario’s publically funded, non-denominational English schools. Clemens,

et al. (2014) find “enrolment in Anglophone public schools is 63.3% of students, with a higher

percentage of students in Ontario are enrolled in private schools (5.6%), compared to other

provinces like Alberta (4.6%)” (p.27). Holmes (2008) points out that although Alberta is an

economically prosperous province, compared to Ontario, fewer students are enrolled in

independent schools.


9

Empirical studies tend to focus on whether students who attend private schools have higher

achievement outcomes than students in public schools (Bosetti, 2004).

Public Schools vs. Catholic Schools. Since 1841, the provincial government has funded both

public and separate schools in Ontario, providing a per-student funding basis since 1998 (Card,

Dooley & Payne, 2008).

Card, Dooley, and Payne (2008) of the C.D. Howe Institute observe that “The key constraint on

school choice is that only children with Catholic backgrounds can readily choose between public

and separate schools” (p. 2). They assert that Catholic parents in Ontario, Manitoba,

Saskatchewan and Alberta have the greatest degree of school choice because they can

exercise the right to choose between the two publicly funded systems. However, a recent

Toronto Star article (Louise Brown, August 29, 2014) refutes this claim, indicating that many

Catholic boards across the province are opening the doors to students of non-Catholic

backgrounds.

Guillemette (2007) suggests that competition for Catholic students between the public and

Catholic systems in Ontario leads to slightly better student outcomes than if only one system

were in place. Guillemette (2007) observes that students “are willing to shift between the

systems and that there is a modest effect on student achievement (as measured by test scores)

from the potential competition between the two publicly funded education systems” (p. 7).

Milke (2010) alludes to apparent academic and cultural advantage of Catholic schools that he

claims may be offset by trends in Canada that are moving toward increasing secularization.

Charter Schools. A significant amount of the North American literature on school choice

provides research on charter schools, with numerous case examples. Charter schools are

gaining growing interest and attention within the United States. Clemens et al. (2012) define

charter schools, an option only available in Alberta within Canada, as “autonomous, not-for-

profit schools within the public system that provide alternative education programs to

complement the public system and generally have greater discretion in selecting curriculum,

teaching, and learning styles than public schools” (p. 2). However, charter schools are not

pertinent to this discussion on school choice. For a more detailed analysis and references to

charter schools, see, for example, Froese-Germain (2010) and Maguire (2006).



Voucher Programs. There is a considerable amount of literature about voucher programs,

especially in the United States. Musset (2012) explains that in these programs, parents are

given the option of using a voucher to pay for tuition at their chosen school, or tuition tax credits

to cover the cost of a private school. The literature describes many examples of voucher

systems. One such example is found in Sweden, where a voucher system reform introduced in

1992, eventually led to a rapid growth in the number of private schools (Musset, 2012). Another

example is Chile, where the country began financing public and most private schools with

vouchers in 1981 with equal weights for all students combined with unrestricted school choice

(Musset, 2012). Some effects of voucher programs include increased segregation between

schools. Funding follows students when they leave for another public or private school. Voucher

programs are based on the assumption that students of a lower socio-economic status

background can benefit from the opportunity to attend higher performing schools, and thereby

improve their educational outcomes. However, as voucher programs are not the focus of this

review, anyone interested in a more detailed analysis may see other literature; for example,

Chakrabarti (2007) and Musset (2012).

Within Canada, Alberta is widely touted as offering the most school choice in the country.

Edmonton is considered among the cities in North America that offers the greatest degree of

school choice (Maguire, 2006; Clemens, et al., 2014; Holmes, 2008; Davies & Aurini, 2011). A

disproportionate amount of the literature on the subject of school choice focused on Alberta as a

case example.

Alberta provides families with a wide range of educational options that support this claim (Milke,

2010):

International test results have placed Alberta students among the world’s top performers.

Immigrant children have scored equal to or better than non-immigrant children - a result that was contrary to national and international trends.

The province directly encourages schools and school boards to respect school choice, for instance through mandates that school authorities who work with homeschooling parents must send only teachers for home visits who believe in and understand homeschooling.

Parents in Alberta have a wide variety of educational options for how to educate their children.

Altogether, there is a general consensus in the literature, highlighting Alberta as a model of

school choice in North America.


11

DETERMINANTS OF SCHOOL CHOICE

In this section, we address the following key questions: (1) What are the determinants of school

choice? and, (2) What factors affect school choice by parents and/or students?.

Davies and Aurini (2011) identify three areas of public interest regarding school choice in

Canada:

School choice and academic performance - There is little consensus that increased school choice leads to improved academic outcomes.

School responses to market competition - Market forces can trigger greater diversity of curricular and pedagogical offerings, but do not necessarily drive schools to prioritize student achievement.

Educational preferences and behaviours of parents - Advocates of choice assume that most parents desire more school variety, are primarily motivated to seek academic quality, and will use available information on achievement when selecting schools.

The third area of concern is one that some parents may be “more interested in a school’s

exclusivity rather than its pedagogical quality, and that parents use criteria other than test

scores when selecting schools” (Davies & Aurini, 2011, p. 461).

From various studies (Musset, 2012; Bosetti, 2004; Bosetti & Pyryt, 2007; Davies & Aurini,

2011), factors having an impact on school choice may be distilled down to the following:

Geography. Musset (2012) points out that “In 27 out of the 33 OECD countries, the location of

the family’s residence and its proximity to the school is the principal criteria for assigning

schools to students for both primary and lower secondary schools” (p.12). Proximity has

traditionally been the predominant factor influencing school choice because of access, safety,

convenience, and perceived strengthening of community relations. Bosetti and Pyryt (2007)

agree, citing proximity as the primary factor affecting choice in rank order of importance and

parent opinions.

Choice mechanisms. The degree and extent to which choice mechanisms and the freedom for

parents to choose within a given system has an impact on choice. In the majority (23 out of 33)

of OECD countries, parents are allowed to choose another public school if there are places

available at the primary school level (Musset, 2012, p. 14). Musset (2012) details various factors

affecting school choice, stating that the availability of choice mechanisms encourages parents to

exercise their right to choose.



Reputation/neighbourhood. Parental perceptions of school reputation and quality play an

important role in school choice. Closely connected to reputation, are decisions based on

neighbourhood. Davies and Aurini (2011) observe that family selection of residence is an

indirect form of school choice. Known by economists as a form of “choice by mortgage,” where

families can select their residence with local school quality in mind. School and neighbourhood

reputation can also be influenced by perceptions of student achievement about a given school.

Davies and Aruini (2011) suggest that parents are “primarily motivated to seek academic

quality, and will use available information on achievement when selecting schools” (p. 4). Yet,

despite these notions of school choice based on reputation and neighbourhood, a CEA Canada

report (Froese-Germain, 2010) contends that few parents actually choose to switch their kids

out of the neighbourhood school.

Family demographics. Bosetti and Pyryt (2007) argue that middle class parents exercise more

school choice, particularly parents with post-secondary education (Bosetti, 2004). Bosetti (2004)

claims that mothers influence school choice as they are “the key decision makers” in a family (p.

388). Other related factors include, according to Bosetti (2004), “parental involvement in their

child’s learning, time spent with their children in school-related activities, and their values and

beliefs about the goals and purpose of schooling” (p. 388). Moreover, Bosetti (2004) points out

that parents are influenced by social and professional networks to collect information.

Furthermore, Froese-Germain (2010), states that parents who are generally more affluent, have

higher levels of education and are more involved in their children’s schooling tend to exercise a

greater degree of choice. Findings by the Davies and Aruini (2011) study suggest that parents

with higher education and incomes were generally more likely to choose. Conversely, Davies

and Aruini (2011) assert that “less educated parents were more likely to express pro-choice and

pro-accountability attitudes, as were non-dominant ethnic groups, controlling for other

demographic and regional characteristics” (p.15). The most consistent was that parents with

higher levels of participation in their children’s schooling tended to do more choosing (Davies

and Aruini, 2011; Bosetti, 2004).


13

Musset (2012, p.15) expounds upon the issue of socio-economic status (SES) and school

choice:

For 60% of students on average across OECD countries, parents have a choice of two or more schools for their children.

In some countries, the percentage of students for whom school choice is available is even higher, such as Australia, Japan, the Slovak Republic, and Belgium.

In other countries, choice available for students is more limited: in Norway, and Switzerland, more than 70 % of principals responded that they felt no competition from other schools, while less than 3 % responded that way in the Netherlands.

Scholars such as Musset (2012) state that the main objective, of making school choice options

available for every student is to “level the playing field”, allowing more disadvantaged children to

access high quality schools they would otherwise not be able to attend (p. 8). Similarly, Bosetti,

(2004) agrees that choice options are less available to parents who are socio-economically

disadvantaged, and calls upon greater awareness among policymakers to consider the needs of

diverse families of all income levels.

Additionally, many scholars (Betts, Rice, Zau, Tang & Koedel, 2006; Forster, 2013; Musset,

2012) have framed the matter of choice as a question of democracy. Bosetti (2004) asserts that

"Proponents of school choice argue that, in a liberal democratic society, parents have the right

to raise their children in a manner consistent with their lifestyle and their religious, philosophical,

and political values and beliefs" (p. 394).

Since 2002, the British Columbia government legislated permission for students to attend

schools outside their local catchment area, provided space is available. Guillemette’s (2007)

study indicates that the province has seen “increased student achievement, increased

accountability for results, greater school board authority and more involvement by parents” (p.

7). They also cite an increase in graduation rates from 75% in 2000 to 79% in 2005 for all

students and 42% to 47% for Aboriginals.

On one hand, scholars (e.g., Forster, 2013; Card, Dooley & Payne, 2008; Bosetti, 2004)

strongly correlate greater choice with better student achievement. On the other hand, scholars

weigh in on complex issues spanning school choice around the world (e.g., Musset, 2012) and

share inconclusive findings about the impact of school choice on student achievement

outcomes. There are widely held perceptions among educators, parents, and advocates that

greater school choice levels the playing field and improves academic achievement. However,



the literature does not find that there is an impact on student achievement and school

enrolment.

CONSEQUENCES AND IMPACTS OF DECLINING ENROLMENT

Impact of declining enrolment in the GTA. A People for Education Report on Declining

Enrolment (2012) identifies potential risks resulting from declining enrolment, pointing out that

the current utilization rates in 10 Ontario school boards is less than 50%, compared to others in

the GTA that operate with over 100% capacity.

Furthermore, People for Education (2012, p.1) observe the following areas for concern:

Across the province, 95 schools are closing, and 30 have been recommended to close without a final board decision. A further 142 are undergoing review by Accommodation Review Committees (ARCs) to decide whether they should stay open.

The Toronto District School Board, is an example of one of the urban boards with a number of schools that are under capacity. It has over 70,000 so-called “empty” spaces and an average utilization rate of 76% for elementary schools and 78% for secondary schools. To get its utilization rate closer to 100% would mean closing as many as 140 schools.

The province is also reducing the Declining Enrolment Grant and phasing out the Supported Schools Allocation, which covered the higher costs of schools spread far apart. This will result in a $6.6 million cut in 2012.

The province is adjusting the funding formula to “encourage” boards to close more of their underutilized or small schools. The changes are meant to affect mainly urban boards, which may have several schools in the same neighbourhood operating below capacity. The proposed cut is $44 million in 2013, plus $72 million in 2014 for a total of $116 million.

People for Education (2012) predict that the subsequent decline in school boards revenue may

result in:

a reduction in the number of specialized programs and extracurricular activities;

a reduction in the number specialist teachers, library and guidance staff, vice-principals and secretarial staff;

an increase in the number of multi-grade classes;

the costs of maintaining underutilized school space can divert significant resources from programs and services for students; and

challenges in providing special education supports because the majority of special education funding is based on numbers of students, rather than level of need.

Although offering more school choice is often perceived as enhancing equitable and democratic

processes in education, the literature also cautions about drawbacks and consequences that

may emerge. One such drawback identified is the effect of racial and economic segregation.


15

However, the literature presents conflicting evidence around racial and economic segregation

occurring. On the topic of segregation and inequity resulting from increased school choice,

Musset (2012) presents some opposing perspectives on debates:

school choice critics suggest that school choice can exacerbate inequities, as it increases sorting of students between schools based on their socio-economic status, their ethnicity and their ability, and quality can become increasingly unequal between schools (p.1).

advocates argue that when school choice is not available for more disadvantaged students, they are trapped in low performing schools, while the most affluent ones have to option to move or to send their children to a private school (p. 8).

"Since school choice has always been available for well-off families through residential mobility and through enrolment in private schools, advocates suggest that expanding school choice to all, including low-income and minority students, will increase equity. Choice programmes can be perceived as leading to a general improvement in the quality of education, and fostering efficiency and innovation” (p.4).

Market Mechanisms and School Competition. From the literature, school competition and

market mechanisms emerged as factors having an impact on school choice and enrolment

(Musset, 2012). The increasing body of research available on the effects of school choice and

competition indicates widely held perceptions that education is broadly improved when parents

have choice and schools are forced to compete (Clemens et al., 2014).

Scholars explore the premise that increased competition creates better schools and leads to

better student achievement outcomes. For example, Reback (2005) suggests that debates over

school choice programs have typically revolved around whether (1) increased competition

improves the productivity of public schools; and, (2) the impact of school choice on streaming

students and the subsequent potential influence on student outcomes.

Bosetti (2004) points to market theory, where there is a generally held belief that competition

results in improved school effectiveness, productivity, and service, leading to higher quality

education. Davies and Aruini (2011) argue that while market forces can lead to diverse

curricular options, they do not necessarily influence schools to prioritize student achievement.

Musset (2012) states that “school choice introduces market mechanisms in education, such as

consumer choice and competition between schools. In this scheme, parents are seen as

‘consumers’ in a market economy” (p.6).

In their study, Card, Dooley and Payne (2008) provide an extensive discussion on the effects of

competition between public and Catholic schools in Ontario. They detail the effects in both



systems of school openings and closings on total elementary school enrolment. The study’s

overall findings are summarized as follows:

In neighbourhoods with a small population influx and low share of Catholics, a public school opening has little effect on enrolments (p. 6).

In neighbourhoods with a high population growth and high share of Catholics, Catholic school enrolments decline 3.9 percent when a new public school opens nearby (p.6).

School choice does have an effect on student performance, indicating slightly higher achievement outcomes for students in Catholic schools (p. 7).

Card, Dooley, and Payne (2008) propose providing greater mobility for all families to be able to

move between public and separate school systems, claiming that stronger incentives for quality

education and higher student achievement outcomes. The researchers envision a system that

offers students options to move freely between both systems, and encourage incentives for

school administrators to improve their schools to attract students.

Davies and Aurini (2011) suggest that schools are like any organization, and as such are “more

productive when subject to competitive market pressures” (p.3). From this perspective, the

presence of market competition can serve as incentives for schools to raise their performance.

They describe a “competition for parent-clients” as way of schools to “improve their pedagogies,

devise entrepreneurial strategies to eliminate unnecessary costs, and differentiate their

curricular offerings.

Davies and Aurini (2011) explore a perception that many families are “stuck” in standard public

schools assigned to them by local boards (p. 3):

Supporters of choice believe many students’ needs are unmet by these “one size fits all” schools, that there is substantial but untapped demand for school alternatives, and that policies should facilitate choice from an expanded menu of alternatives. This position is implicitly grounded in a market ideal that treats families as clients to be served by a wide variety of schooling options. Supporters hail choice policies not only as long-overdue acknowledgements of vital family rights and freedoms, but also as a stimulus for school improvement.

Much of the literature raises questions about whether having more school choice improve

educational outcomes for students. From 22 out of 23 empirical studies, Forster (2013) finds

that choice improves public schools.

Moreover, Feinberg and Lubienski (2008) offer a cautious view on market competition,

suggesting that it does not guarantee the fulfillment of democratic ideals such as freedom,

equality, achievement and community. Conversely, Feinberg and Lubienski (2008) state that


17

school choice policies must be deliberately directed toward meeting these goals rather than

simply fostering greater competition among schools.

STRATEGIES USED AND ISSUES ENCOUNTERED BY DIFFERENT JURISDICTIONS

McWilliams (2008) looks to the 1970s for examples of strategies used during the first

significant period of declining enrolment across the province. These strategies resulted in large

numbers of school closures, introduction of early retirement incentives, seniority-based teacher

lay-offs, hiring freezes, increased class sizes, service and other budgetary reductions

(McWilliams, 2008, p. 3). However, given the current social and political climate of schooling in

Ontario, such strategies are less feasible and relevant today.

From the literature, it is evident that there are no clear cut strategies to deal with declining

enrolment issues. Scholars acknowledge that there are factors outside of the control of school

jurisdictions: fertility rates, mobility and the cost of living in urban centres. However, we provide

some points about various strategies and related issues as came about in the literature.

While throughout much of the school choice literature, Alberta as a province, and Edmonton as

a city, have been upheld as a model of school choice, it may be more helpful for us to look to

other jurisdictions bearing greater similarity to Toronto. One such example is San Francisco, a

geographically defined peninsula, that has been grappling with issues of declining enrolment

and increasing mobility out of its downtown core to neighbouring suburbs (Rob Brown, personal

communication, August 29, 2014). Raging housing prices, resulting from a burgeoning dot com

industry and gentrification, largely drive the outward mobility trend in San Francisco.

Over the past 60 years, Fowler and Shaw (2012) state that the San Francisco Unified School

District (SFUSD) has been experiencing declining enrolment of school age children. The decline

in enrolment has raised significant financial concerns as loss of students correlates with loss of

revenue (Fowler & Shaw, 2012). The researchers attribute the declining enrolment to factors

such as decreased birth rate, an out-migration of middle-income families, and avoidance (e.g.,

choosing private schools over the SFUSD schools). They conclude by recommending “magnet

schools” as an option to address SFUSD enrolment declines. Magnet Schools of America

(2013) define magnet schools as free public elementary and secondary schools of choice that

are operated by school districts or a consortium of districts. Musset (2012) gives an early



example of magnet schools introduced in Cincinnati and Milwaukee in 1973 with “innovative

curricula and instructional approaches” (p. 18).

Programming (e.g., special programs). Special programs may contribute to school choice

and enrolment programs. Some examples of these programs include regional arts programs,

special education, alternative programs, French Immersion, and Gifted programs. However,

literature was limited on the correlation between diversified curricular offerings and enrolment

increases.

The Canadian Council on Learning (2006) explains the effects on schools with declining

enrolment and programming: “When student numbers decline, there are often too few students

to justify the expense of offering courses with low enrolments” (p.5). The Canadian Council on

Learning suggests that this is often a problem encountered more often in smaller sized schools

that are unable to have specialist teachers to offer the same range of courses available at larger

schools.

The Peel District School Board (Peel Board) has also added more non-mandated programs,

such as French Immersion sites, International Baccalaureate (IB) programs, Arts and

Technology centres, and created new course offerings like Bramalea Secondary School’s Truck

and Coach program and Royal Orchard Middle School’s Actively In Motion (AIM) program,

which focuses on physical fitness and wellness, to broaden the choices available to parents and

their kids (Brampton Guardian, 2013).

School leadership. Although school leadership may be an aspect associated with school

choice and enrolment, there was limited research available on this subject.

Guillemette (2007, p. 10) provides the following observations about school leadership and

choice:

At the school board level, it is important to have mission statements and boards of trustees that are supportive of choice. Hostile boards can stifle choice through admission policies that make effective choice de facto impossible. In contrast, supportive boards can work with provincial governments to educate parents about the benefits of school choice. They can teach parents that there is no “best school” for all children and that “best” is different for each child. They can help parents find what is likely to be the best option for their child.


19

Guillemette (2007) places the onus on school boards and school administrators to enhance

professional development learning to respond to school choice complexities. Some scholars

raise questions around whether school administrators attempt to create a common school

culture in spite of differently mandated programs, or allow programs to operate as separate

entities sharing a physical space (Ball & Lund, 2010; Milke 2010).

Enrolment balancing. Enrolment balancing is the process of moving students from one school

to another in order to address overcrowding or low enrolment so that all schools have

appropriate population sizes and all students can access a strong academic program (Portland

Public Schools, 2014). The Portland Public School District is one example of a jurisdiction

implementing this strategy. There is little empirical evidence from the literature suggesting the

effectiveness of this strategy for declining enrolment.

In some cases, boards may revise boundary policies to accommodate enrolment declines. The

Peel Board, for example, recently revised its boundary policy to allow parents to apply for

“flexible boundary access for a school outside their designated school boundary if that school is

closer to their daycare provider or offers a program they desire for their child” (Brampton

Guardian, 2013, paragraph 10).

Marketing campaigns. Although marketing campaigns are a strategy being implemented by

some jurisdictions to address enrolment declines, scholarly literature available on the use and

effectiveness of marketing campaigns is limited. Media reports discuss the use of marketing,

such as radio broadcasts, newspaper advertisements, and word-of-mouth to address declining

enrolment. A 2005 Toronto Catholic District School Board (TCDSB) campaign to address

enrolment declines was met with much controversy among Trustees, who expressed concerns

over the use of $925,000 towards consultancy and advertising fees that they believed may be

instead allocated towards resources for students (Town Crier, 2005 paragraph 4). Within the

GTA, the Peel Board recently launched its Take 3 campaign that “encourages board staff to

take three minutes to tell three people in the community three good things about the school

board” to address enrolment declines (Brampton Guardian, 2013, paragraph 3). As part of the

Take 3 campaign, administrators are being instructed to play a video for employees during their

first staff meetings that include a video on declining enrolment and attracting students

(Brampton Guardian, 2013, paragraph 3).



In addition to marketing locally, certain jurisdictions, particularly large urban areas, market

overseas to international students. In most cases, fees are collected from international students

as a means for potentially offsetting declining enrolment costs. Froese-Germain (2010) cautions

about this approach as he claims that it creates inequalities within the education system and

budgetary complications with unpredictable sways in international student enrolment.

Infrastructure, Funding, and Staffing. Another aspect to consider is the persisting problem of

elasticity and the economics of schooling. Inelasticity is an economic concept that refers to cost

versus revenue. Applying this concept to school enrolment allows us to look at the number of

students per school and the overall operating costs of a school. Even when a school loses

students, the costs to operate the school remain static. Froese-Germain, B. (2010) puts it this

way:

As headcounts decrease, per-student costs increase. Although funding formulas differ across the provinces, kindergarten to Grade 12 funding is typically allocated on a dollars-per-student basis. When fewer students enrol, schools receive less funding but they do not incur proportionately lower costs (p.5).

Froese-Germain (2010) explains that this occurs because school boards are unable to reduce

their costs in proportion to the decline in student numbers. The operational and administrative

costs to operate a school remain static despite the number of students. Froese-Germain (2010)

warns about reductions in student numbers as a means to justify the cancellation of classes or

the subsequent elimination of administrative and school support staff positions.

CONCLUSION

Based on the literature reviewed, we can conclude that there have been many periods of

declining enrolment with no “magic wand” solutions. There is no consensus about strategies

that address declining enrolment and no obvious solutions. This may be largely due to the

nature of schooling – for example, fixed costs and neighbourhood attachments.

An important point is the perceived link between school choice, student academic achievement,

and enrolment. The literature does not establish conclusive evidence between school choice,

stronger student achievement outcomes and increasing enrolment. The impact of various

strategies is not clear, there remains a disconnect between strategies and measures of impact.

Lessons we can gain from a retrospective perspective on enrolment projects teach us to

exercise caution when looking at enrolment projections. Today, we can see that the same


21

school board is facing enrolment declines across its jurisdiction. We can also understand that

enrolment patterns are more often a reflection of wider population-based trends (i.e., decreased

birth rates, high cost of living in urban centres, and increasing mobility, etc.) rather than

individual school or school board-based practices.

However, the literature reveals drastically polarized and often contradictory findings about the

effects of school choice on student achievement and educational outcomes. On one hand,

scholars (e.g., Forster, 2013; Card, Dooley & Payne, 2008; Bosetti, 2004) strongly correlate

greater choice with better student achievement. On the other hand, scholars weigh in on

complex issues spanning school choice around the world and share inconclusive findings about

the impact of school choice on student achievement outcomes.

Despite contentious debates, school choice in Canada is stable (Holmes, 2008). Holmes

explains that Canadian parents are less likely than American parents to make school choice

decisions based on their school district, because education funding is provincially regulated and

there are fewer socioeconomic differences between school districts. Additionally, Holmes

(2008) argues that “socioeconomic factors are usually closely related to perceived quality

reputationally 'good' school usually serves a 'nice' neighbourhood” (p. 203).

Furthermore, Bosetti (2004) aptly sums up the different perspectives on school choice: the

pressure for more diversity in schools, more efficiency in schools, greater parental freedom in

choosing, and an interest in providing equal opportunity to students of all socio-economic

backgrounds. When it comes to school choice in Ontario, however, we actually have a lot more

school choice than often perceived by the public. In general, families tend to value their

neighbourhood community and school (Bosetti, 2004) and feel they deserve the right to a

variety of school choice options (Betts, et al., 2006; Forster, 2013).

The challenge in reviewing evidence is that the literature is often inconclusive and it is essential

to consider the relevance and applicability to the local context. The political importance of this

research at times results in high-profile attention given to individual studies rather than

systemically understanding findings from a wider empirical base (Musset, 2012).

In conclusion, for policy makers, decision-makers and educational leaders, it is important to

consider the contentious school choice issues and the sensitive nature of declining enrolment in

schools. As part of this, one must make explicit the goals and objectives of these schemes and



to ensure that there are sufficient supports and services in place for administrators, parents,

students and the wider school community.


23

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