October 22, 2021

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Schlumberger Sees 'Exceptional' Upstream Growth

Oil-�eld services giant Schlumberger anticipates an “exceptional” cycle of multiyear growth in

spending and activity across all regions globally, adding to the bullish sentiment in the near and

medium terms for the upstream sector.

CEO Olivier Le Peuch said the growth in spending “will impact all basins, every operating

environment, short- and long-cycle activity and all customer groups.”

“The market fundamentals have improved steadily throughout 2021, especially over the last few

weeks with oil and gas price attaining recent highs, inventories at their lowest level in the recent

history, a rebound in demand and encouraging trends in the pandemic-containment efforts,” Le

Peuch told analysts on Schlumberger’s third-quarter earnings call on Friday.

“This strengthening in industry fundamentals, combined with the action of Opec-plus and continued

capital discipline in North America, have �rmly established a prospect of an exceptional multiyear

growth cycle ahead.”

The remarks matched — and possibly exceeded — the positive tone set by rival Halliburton earlier in

the week in what was the of�cial kickoff of the �nal earnings season of 2021. It also comes at a time

when the upstream sector begins �nalizing spending plans for the next �scal year.

Growth to Meet Demand

Le Peuch said he expects the upstream sector to buck the last �ve to seven years of

“underinvestment” and open wallets again to meet an anticipated spike in demand as economies

reemerge from the pandemic-induced slowdown.

But he said international oil companies (IOCs) are not likely to lead the charge this cycle. Those

�rms will instead focus activities around their “advantaged basins,” prioritizing cash �ow they can

then pour into their energy transition plans.

Rather, national oil companies (NOCs) and independents could be best positioned to grow supply

and increase capacity, Le Peuch said.

NOCs have already signaled plans to reinvest in expanding capacity, he said, while independents “have inherited some proli�c assets

and are redeveloping those assets” with a chance to participate in the coming demand cycle.

“This demand will have to be met with supply and this supply cannot come with inventory, cannot come with only releasing the Opec

spare capacity. More will have to be built. Hence, it will create activity growth in the coming years,” Le Peuch said.

Growth In�ection

Le Peuch said this “growth in�ection” has already begun in Latin America, where exploration has resumed and long-cycle development

campaigns are under way.

Activity in countries like Brazil, Argentina, Guyana and Ecuador has been growing this year and is expected to continue over the

coming years, Le Peuch said. Schlumberger revenues in Latin America are already at 2019 pre-pandemic levels, with growth at 30%

year to date, he said.

CONTENTS

Schlumberger Sees 'Exceptional' Upstream Growth

Biden Eyes Incentives on Clean Electricity Plan

Oil Ends Week on a Tear

Equinor, BP Seek More Time for US Wind Project

Bulls, Bears Tussle for Gas Market Control

In Brief

Shell May Restart US Gulf Output Early

Altus, BCP Tip Permian Pipeline Merger

ProFrac Buys FTS in Fracking Consolidation

US Rig Count Falls by One

US Oil Production and Drilling Indicators

Data Snapshot

Oil and Gas Prices, Oct. 22, 2021

Equity Markets, Oct. 22, 2021

Luke Johnson, Houston

Bridget DiCosmo, Washington

In the Middle East, where activity has been “more subdued” in 2021, Le Peuch sees market conditions “set for a material uptick in the

coming quarters.”

“The combination of short-cycle activity to meet supply commitments, strategic oil capacity expansion and the acceleration of gas

development projects will result in a signi�cant increase in investment throughout 2022 and beyond,” he said of the Mideast.

Global Spending

In North America, Schlumberger expects capital spending to increase by around 20%, a level similar to Halliburton’s projections.

International spending growth may be slightly slower but still strong, likely in the “low to mid-teens” percentages and driven by both

short-cycle activity and the onset of multiyear capacity expansion plans.

Spending growth will impact both onshore and offshore markets, Le Peuch said.

Offshore could see a “strong resurgence,” he said, noting that rig activity grew for the third sequential quarter internationally.

A steady pipeline of �nal investment decisions should keep activity growth pointing up, as new technologies will allow operators to

“reinvest with con�dence in this cycle.”

“A broad offshore resurgence will result from IOCs building on their advantaged hubs, independents fast-tracking development on

their recently acquired assets and NOCs unlocking their gas and oil reserve recovery potential,” Le Peuch said.

Biden Eyes Incentives on Clean Electricity Plan

US President Joe Biden underscored that tax incentives, rather than penalties for failing to hit clean electricity generation targets, will

be the focus of Democrats’ climate plans in the budget reconciliation bill.

Speaking at a CNN Town Hall late Thursday, Biden outlined an alternative to a previously proposed clean electricity payment program,

which US Sen. Joe Manchin is presently blocking.

That program, which had been the fulcrum of Biden’s climate agenda, would have paid utilities that ratchet their clean electricity

generation by 4% each year and charged fees to those that failed to meet targets.

Manchin objected to the original proposal on the grounds that it wasn’t fuel-neutral and incentivized private companies to “do things

they’re already doing.”

Still, Biden was emphatic that the idea might not be completely off the table, saying “nothing has been formally agreed to.”

Biden said the $150 billion lawmakers had set aside in the reconciliation bill for the payment program can be added to funding for tax

incentives.

"I'm going to add it to be able to do other things ... that don't directly affect the electric grid in the way that there's a penalty, but allow

me to spend the money to set new technologies in place,” he said.

Policy Planning

Tax incentives for clean energy were already a major part of Democrats’ reconciliation agenda. But it wasn't immediately clear whether

Biden envisions potentially establishing a power-speci�c grant program.

Also during the town hall Thursday, Biden suggested that releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to alleviate

current surging US fuel prices might not be in the cards, noting that gasoline would remain over $3 per gallon.

“I could go in the petroleum reserve and take out and probably reduce the price of gasoline maybe 18¢ or so a gallon," he said. "It’s still

going to be above three bucks.”

Last week, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm previously has said releases from the US SPR remain a “tool that’s on the table,”

although her remarks were later walked back.

Frans Koster, New York

Oil Ends Week on a Tear

Oil futures surged on Friday, ending the week near seven-year highs and poised to make further gains amid an ongoing energy supply

crunch.

In London, Brent crude for December delivery settled 92¢ higher at $85.53.

In New York, December West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Nymex rose $1.26 to close at $83.76.

Rising prices have prompted concerns of headwinds to further economic growth, juxtaposed with in�ation.

But market players say both the fundamental and technical underpinning exists for crude to climb even higher.

“Bears can argue that we have a completed structure up from the August lows. Bulls can argue that this structure is not yet complete.

Bears are the ones that must prove their case. To do that support must be broken,” said Brian LaRose of Icap.

He said Brent would need to drop below roughly $78 to suggest a de�nitive end to oil’s ongoing rally.

Supportive Factors

The market faces a shortage of key heating fuels as winter approaches, including diesel and propane as well as natural gas.

A colder-than-anticipated winter could send Brent to $100, argued commodities analysts with investment bank Bank of America.

Both major benchmarks’ forward curves speak to a tight market as well.

WTI is in steep backwardation, with December trading $1.26 higher than January and almost $3 above its three-month counterpart.

Brent’s backwardation is somewhat shallower but still hefty, with December trading 89¢ above January.

This structure typically signals a market in need of more oil.

Meanwhile, WTI’s discount to Brent is shrinking. December Brent trades less than $2 above the same WTI contract, well below the

level experts say justi�es exports.

That means more US crude is likely to stay at home as re�ners exit seasonal maintenance. Traders added that low inventories at the

Nymex pricing point of Cushing, Oklahoma, are helping to bolster WTI against Brent.

Oil also drew support from a weakening dollar, which tends to be supportive for crude as it makes the commodity less expensive.

($/b

bl)

ICE BRENT VS. NYMEX WTI FUTURES

Front Month Contracts

Nymex Light Sweet ICE Brent

11. Oct 12. Oct 13. Oct 14. Oct 15. Oct 16. Oct 17. Oct 18. Oct 19. Oct 20. Oct 21. Oct 22. Oct80

82

84

86

88

Noah Brenner, London and Jason Eden, London

Equinor, BP Seek More Time for US Wind Project

Equinor and BP have asked for more time to bring the �rst phase of their Empire Wind project online, saying the timeline stipulated is

not realistic, given the size and complexity of the project.

Under the terms of their lease, the pair were supposed to start delivering power from the offshore wind farm into the New York State

grid by June 2025.

The project is central to both companies' renewable energy strategies, which include leveraging their offshore expertise to create

pro�table offshore wind businesses.

In a �ling with the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), attorneys for the Empire Wind joint venture asked to push the

start date for the 816 megawatt �rst phase back to December 2026.

The initial in-service date is not feasible, given the expected timelines for receiving key permits and approvals, as well as "the inherent

complexities of constructing and commissioning New York State's �rst large-scale offshore wind generating facility," the �ling states.

Equinor said the request does not represent a delay from the company's overall timeline for the project.

"Equinor's request for a waiver from FERC was needed to stay in legal compliance with current regulations," a spokesman said.

A BP representative declined to comment.

No Strangers to Offshore Delays

The Empire Wind partners say they are working with regulators to set more realistic timelines in the bidding documents for future

offshore wind lease rounds.

Their request for more time echoes some of the stumbles that companies including BP and Equinor have experienced with complex

offshore oil and gas developments.

In those cases, permitting as well as engineering and construction hiccups have led to delays in �rst production and eroded returns.

"This is another of many delays across the US offshore wind industry," analysts at JPMorgan said, noting that other companies may also

have to push back project start-up dates.

Equinor won rights to develop the Empire Wind lease area in 2016 and believes that both phases of the project could generate up to 2

gigawatts of power.

BP paid Equinor $1.1 billion for 50% interests in Empire Wind and the nearby Beacon Wind project. The two projects will have a

combined capacity of up to 4.4 GW.

Earlier this month, Empire Wind awarded a contract to Vestas to use the manufacturer's 15 MW wind turbines after initially

committing to buy 12 MW turbines from GE.

Bulls, Bears Tussle for Gas Market Control

Bulls and bears are wrestling for control of the US gas market, with strong tailwinds for both leading to volatility not seen in years.

November gas futures plunged just under the $5 per million Btu threshold of psychological support last Monday, culminating a two-

session, 69.8¢ swan dive. But lingering upside risk gave prices plenty of room to run higher this week even if they lacked fundamental

support.

For instance, the contract climbed 16.5¢ Friday to settle at $5.28/MMBtu despite an extremely bearish National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) winter forecast calling for a warmer-than-average winter for much of the eastern US.

Storage inventories are heading into the winter heating season not too far shy of seasonal norms around 3.6 trillion cubic feet.

Tom Haywood, Houston

Weather is not the only fundamental driver that is growing less bullish by the week.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a net storage increase of 92 billion cubic feet bringing working gas

stockpiles to 3,461 Bcf.

The data was 29 Bcf higher than the �ve-year average, narrowing the seasonal de�cit to 151 Bcf, or 4.2%. Next week's report is

expected to continue narrowing the de�cit.

This undercuts one of the pillars of the bullish narrative that inventories are inadequate entering winter, which has helped propel the

prompt month contract as much as $2.60 higher in intraday trading since the market posted a low of $3.828 on Aug. 19.

And last week it helped cut short a technically driven two-session rally.

Still, NOAA forecasts are not gospel, and the market would do well to keep its guard up.

"NOAA models frequently can't get a two-week forecast right, so I have very little faith in their long-range winter forecasts," a

meteorologist who specializes in energy analysis told Energy Intelligence.

According to the models he's studied, the eastern third of the US could see much colder weather late this month and into early

November, followed by colder conditions from Thanksgiving until New Year's.

January through mid-February also looks to be potentially colder than normal, although a deep freeze like that seen last February may

not "occur again in our lifetimes," he said.

IN BRIEF

Shell May Restart US Gulf Output Early

Royal Dutch Shell said on Friday it expects an offshore transfer facility, shut due to damage from Hurricane Ida, to be operational in the

�rst half of November.

That could mean restarting production of a popular Gulf of Mexico crude grade earlier than expected.

The oil major was the hardest-hit producer from Ida, which tore through the Gulf of Mexico in August and removed 28 million barrels

from the market.

Shell previously said it expected its West Delta-143 offshore facility, which transfers oil and gas from three major �elds for processing

at onshore terminals, to be off line for repairs until the end of 2021.

($/M

MB

tu)

NYMEX NATURAL GAS FUTURES

Natural Gas Futures

11. Oct 12. Oct 13. Oct 14. Oct 15. Oct 16. Oct 17. Oct 18. Oct 19. Oct 20. Oct 21. Oct 22. Oct4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

Energy Intelligence

Luke Johnson, Houston

The �elds are a key source of Mars sour crude, a grade prized by oil re�ners in the US and Asia. The disruptions hampered exports and

raised crude prices, as buyers searched for substitutes.

Once the WD-143 facility is operational, the Mars oil pipeline expects to resume normal services as producers ramp up production,

Shell said. The pipeline was expected to be off line until early 2022.

About 200,000 to 250,000 barrels per day of oil supply from the Gulf of Mexico was expected to be affected due to damage to the

facilities from Ida, research �rm Rystad Energy had said. (Reuters)

Altus, BCP Tip Permian Pipeline Merger

Altus Midstream said on Thursday it would merge with BCP Raptor, a holding company for pipeline assets in the Permian Basin owned

by investment �rms. The combined entity is to be valued at $9 billion inclusive of debt.

The transaction is a so-called reverse merger which will allow privately owned BCP to become a public company. It will hand control of

Altus to BCP's backers: Private equity �rm Blackstone and infrastructure-focused investor I Squared Capital.

In exchange, Altus gains greater scale in the Permian, the US shale industry's heart. The resultant company will be the largest

integrated midstream operator in the Delaware part of the formation, according to Altus' statement.

APA (formerly Apache), the oil and gas producer from which Altus was carved out in 2018 and merged with a blank-check �rm, will slim

its holding to 20% from 79%. The remaining 5% will belong to Altus' other investors.

BCP owns EagleClaw Midstream, Caprock Midstream and Pinnacle Midstream. It also holds part of the Permian Highway Pipeline, and

once joined with Altus' interest, they will be the majority owner of the 430 mile (700 km) natural gas pipeline.

The tie-up comes as commodity prices hit multiyear highs, offering con�dence to energy companies on M&A. Altus, with a market

value of $1.4 billion, aims to close the deal in the �rst quarter of 2022. (Reuters)

ProFrac Buys FTS in Fracking Consolidation

Fracking contractor FTS International said it has agreed to sell itself to privately held rival ProFrac in an all-cash deal that values the

New York-listed player at around $407.5 million.

The valuation represents a 14% premium to FTS’ 60-day volume-weighted average stock price through Oct. 21.

The deal is the latest sign of consolidation in the pressure-pumping sector, where a glut of equipment had kept margins for services low

even before the Covid-19 pandemic gutted demand last year.

The downturn forced several pressure pumpers and service �rms, including FTS, into bankruptcy.

As demand comes back in a high-price environment, operators are showing a clear preference for newer, higher-spec fracking

equipment, pushing tons of aging legacy kit to the scrap heap and boosting prices for operators.

FTS said the deal with ProFrac will create “one of the largest completions-focused service companies in the US oil and gas industry.”

The deal, which has been unanimously approved by FTS’ board, includes a 45-day “go-shop” period that will allow the company to

solicit alternative acquisition proposals from third parties.

The current deal is expected to close in the �rst quarter of 2022.

Kathrine Schmidt, Houston

US Rig Count Falls by One

The US rig count dropped by one this week, breaking a nearly two-month streak of operators adding to the tally, Baker Hughes data

showed.

The total count fell to 542 even as US benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed above $83. Operators cut two oil rigs for a total of

443 and added one gas rig for a total of 99.

By state, the count ticked up by two rigs in New Mexico and one each in California and Louisiana. The tally fell by three units in

Wyoming, with Texas and Utah shedding one each.

The Gulf of Mexico added one unit for a total of 13.

Week Ended October 22, 2021

Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count

Region Current Wk. Prev. Wk. Year Ago

Total US 542 543 287

Land 529 531 274

Inland Waters 0 0 0

Offshore 13 12 13

Gulf of Mexico 13 12 13

Total Canada 164 168 83

US Rigs Exploring for: Current Wk. Prev. Wk. Year Ago

Oil 443 445 211

Gas 99 98 73

Unspeci�ed 0 0 3

Basins Current Wk. Prev. Wk. Year Ago

Cana Woodford 22 22 7

DJ Niobrara 11 12 3

Eagle Ford 40 40 16

Haynesville 46 46 37

Marcellus 27 27 26

Permian 268 267 133

Williston (Bakken) 23 23 12

Source: Baker Hughes

BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT

Oil Gas

Nov '20 Jan '21 Mar '21 May '21 Jul '21 Sep '210

100

200

300

400

500

Source: Baker Hughes

US Oil Production and Drilling Indicators

US Oil Production(million b/d) Oct.15'21 Oct.8'21 Oct.1'21 Oct.16'20

Weekly* 11.300 11.400 11.300 9.900

Monthly Jul.'21 Jun'21 May.'21 Jul.'20

US Crude Oil Production 11.307 11.276 11.334 10.956

  Texas 4.810 4.782 4.806 4.741

  North Dakota 1.055 1.064 1.061 1.032

  New Mexico 1.295 1.267 1.234 0.985

  Gulf of Mexico 1.845 1.789 1.814 1.618

US NGL Production 5.455 5.474 5.461 5.368

Annual 2022 2021 2020 2019

EIA US crude oil forecast 11.72 11.08 11.28 12.29

Previous forecast 11.77 11.12 11.28 12.29

Rigs, Permits and CompletionsWeekly Oil Rig Count* Oct.22'21 Oct.15'21 Oct.8'21 Oct.23'20

US 443 445 433 211

  Permian Basin 267 266 265 132

  Eagle Ford 38 38 36 16

  Cana Woodford 22 22 20 7

  Williston Basin (Bakken) 23 23 23 12

Drilling Permits Sep.'21 Aug.'21 Jul.'21 Sep.'20

Texas 799 681 778 437

North Dakota 69 79 40 51

Completions Sep.'21 Aug.'21 Jul.'21 Sep.'20

Texas (new drill oil only) 495 541 406 835

North Dakota †34 47 53 76

* New data † Provisional data. Source: Energy Information Administration, Baker Hughes, state agencies.

DATA SNAPSHOT

Oil and Gas Prices, Oct. 22, 2021

All data are produced by Energy Intelligence in cooperation with Reuters.

CRUDE OIL FUTURES($/bbl) Chg. 1st Mth. 2nd Mth.

ICE Brent +0.92 85.53 84.64

Nymex Light Sweet +1.26 83.76 82.50

DME Oman +0.75 83.65 82.84

ICE Murban +0.97 84.76 83.79

INTERNATIONAL SPOT CRUDES($/bbl) Chg. Price Prior Close

Brent (Dated) +0.86 85.43 84.57

Dubai -0.55 82.55 83.10

Forties 1.14 85.38 84.24

Bonny Light 1.34 85.38 84.04

Urals 1.34 82.93 81.59

Opec Basket* 83.36

*Opec price assessed.

NORTH AMERICAN SPOT CRUDES($/bbl) Chg. Price Prior Close

WTI (Cushing) +1.89 84.53 82.64

WTS (Midland) +0.99 82.83 81.84

LLS +1.52 84.63 83.12

Mars +0.49 81.08 80.59

Bakken +1.89 85.13 83.24

($/b

bl)

ICE BRENT CRUDE FUTURES

May '20 Jul '20 Sep '20 Nov '20 Jan '21 Mar '21 May '21 Jul '21 Sep '21$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$/b

bl

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE FUTURES

Nymex Light crude Futures

May '20 Jul '20 Sep '20 Nov '20 Jan '21 Mar '21 May '21 Jul '21 Sep '21$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

Energy Intelligence

REFINED PRODUCT FUTURESNymex Chg. 1st Mth. 2nd Mth.

Gasoline (¢/gal) +0.20 248.21 241.56

ULSD Diesel (¢/gal) -1.02 253.89 253.12

ICE

Gasoil ($/ton) +9.75 732.25 725.25

Gasoil (¢/gal) +3.11 233.71 231.47

($/t

on

)

ICE GASOIL FUTURES

ICE Gasoil

May '20 Jul '20 Sep '20 Nov '20 Jan '21 Mar '21 May '21 Jul '21 Sep '21$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

(¢/g

allo

n)

NYMEX GASOLINE FUTURES

May '20 Jul '20 Sep '20 Nov '20 Jan '21 Mar '21 May '21 Jul '21 Sep '210

50

100

150

200

250

300

US SPOT REFINED PRODUCTSNew York (¢/gal) Chg. Price Prior Close

Regular Gasoline +2.71 257.13 254.42

No.2 Heating Oil -0.28 241.40 241.68

No.2 ULSD Diesel -0.08 255.75 255.83

No.6 Oil 0.3% * 99.80

No.6 Oil 1% * 83.80

No.6 Oil 3% * 78.20

Gulf Coast (¢/gal)

Regular Gasoline +0.71 248.13 247.42

No.2 ULSD Diesel -0.50 249.03 249.53

No.6 Oil 0.7% * 85.90

No.6 Oil 1% * 85.90

No.6 Oil 3% * 73.30

*Price in $/bbl. Percentages refer to sulfur content.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT REFINED PRODUCTSRotterdam ($/ton) Chg. Price Prior Close

Regular Gasoline +5.20 813.50 808.30

ULSD Diesel +0.50 732.25 731.75

Singapore ($/bbl)

Gasoil -0.49 94.55 95.04

Jet/Kerosene -0.36 94.59 94.95

VLSFO Fuel Oil ($/ton) -2.02 609.34 611.36

HSFO Fuel Oil 180 ($/ton) -11.01 473.33 484.34

($/M

MB

tu)

NYMEX NATURAL GAS FUTURES

Natural Gas Futures

May '20 Jul '20 Sep '20 Nov '20 Jan '21 Mar '21 May '21 Jul '21 Sep '21$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

Re�nitiv

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NATURAL GAS PRICES($/MMBtu) Chg. Price

Henry Hub, Nymex +0.17 5.28

Henry Hub, Spot +0.18 5.09

Transco Zone 6 - NY NA 4.48

Chicago Citygate +0.04 4.96

Rockies (Opal) -0.05 5.09

Southern Calif. Citygate +0.03 5.69

AECO Hub (Canada) -0.09 3.80

Dutch TTF (euro/MWh) +0.73 86.93

UK NBP Spot (p/th) +2.00 205.00

US/Canada spot prices from Natural Gas Week

Equity Markets, Oct. 22, 2021

All data are produced by Energy Intelligence in cooperation with Reuters.

EQUITY MARKET INDEXESChg. Index YTD %Chg.

EIF Global* -5.10 305.86 +34.39

S&P 500 -4.88 4,544.90 +21.94

FTSE All-World* +0.69 876.59 +16.28

*Index for previous day

EIF

Ind

exF

TSE

All-W

orld

EIF INDEX

EIF Index FT All World

Jul '20 Jan '21 Jul '21Oct '20 Apr '21 Oct '21160

200

240

280

320

500

600

700

800

900

EIF Global Oil and Gas Index of 21 traded equities