Scenarios for Tourism in 2023: The Role of

TechnologyDr Graham Miller

Director of International Studies

Reader in Management

Tourism in 2023?

Significant

Not certainCertain

Not significant

Certain about...

• Climate Change• Drought and water scarcity• Growth in visitor numbers• Cost of resources• Ageing UK population• Political instability, regional conflict and terrorism

Less certain about...

• The way people view mobility and the environment• The extent and effect of legislation• How expensive energy might be• How strong the UK economy will be• Will new technologies be successful?• How active will older people be?• How will the new global economies develop?• How attractive and welcoming will destinations be?

The Scenarios

Overseas travel is attractive and easy

The Scenarios

Demand for overseas travel down as ethical issues to the fore

http://www.guardian.co.uk/travel/series/green-list-2010

With thanks to...

http://www.forumforthefuture.org