scenarios, decision support and communications greg kiker agricultural and biological engineering...
TRANSCRIPT
Scenarios, Decision Support and Communications
Greg Kiker
Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.P.O. Box 110570
Gainesville, FL 32611-0570
Phone: (352) 392-1864 ext 291Email: [email protected]
GECAFS Caribbean Meeting, 02 Sept 05
Overview of the talk
GECAFS: An Integrated View of Food Systems
Decision Support Systems
Scenarios/DSS/Communication with GECAFS
Source: Paul Raskin
Cau
salit
y
Uncertainty (data availability)
Projection
Scenarios, predictions & projections?
What if?
Scenarios
The probability that …
PredictionF
acts
low high
unknown
known
Source: modified after R. Leemans 2003
Cau
salit
y
Uncertainty (data availability)
Projection
Scenarios, predictions & projections?
What if?
Scenarios
The probability that …
Prediction
The probability that …
PredictionF
acts
low high
unknown
known
Source: modified after R. Leemans 2003
Decision Support
Traditional Decision Support Systems
Many definitions, many visions, many versions…
DSS Integrate Tools and Methodologies Method Descriptions and Tools Information Storage and Databases Models Visualization (examples: GIS, graphics,
charts…) Decision analysis (examples: Adaptive
management, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Trade-off analysis, Linear Programming)
Spatial Maps of Ecosystem Indicators
User-Defined “Slow and Fast”
Time Steps Management Options
“Warning Lights”
Tabbed panes with several time series charts
Mouse-driven Chart and Text
Display
Reset Button
Example Supporting Tool: QnD System
Challenges in Building DSS
DSS almost always focus on one sector’s (or discipline’s) tools and concepts
Model integration is difficult and technically challenging
Not helpful in unearthing assumptions Transparency versus Ease of Use Integration with scenario planning and
communication - “More gaps than links” (Brklacich, (happy hour) 2005)
Questions to Ask
Who will use this DSS? The decision-maker? Their assistants? Consultants/University/Government types? Teachers? NGO’s? Citizens? School Kids?
How do they currently make decisions? What new techniques are they willing to
explore? What are their information, support and
communication needs?
• Talk about the system, goals, desires
• Explore current management options
• Gather initial maps/data
• Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities
Genesis Session
Prototype QnD Game View and Simulation Engine
• Rough estimate of components, processes and data
• Simple information
• Deployed in limited circulation for calibration/reality checks
Iterative Sessions 1…n
• Refine goals, objectives• Explore current and possible management options• Calibrate/Validate engine performance• Revise Game View for relevant management information • Make changes concerning management options, relevant information and socio-economic factors
Deployed QnD Model
• Player/Developer reviewed components, processes and data
• More relevant information
• Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities
DSS Development Methodology: QnD as an example
CARSEA Scenarios • Neo-Plantation Economy• Quantity Over Quality• Growing Asymmetries• Diversify Together
Tourist visits, foreign investment, external prices, etc.
Climate Scenarios • Precipitation• Hurricane Intensity/ Frequency• Sea Level Rise
QnD:Jamaica Version 0.0
• Stochastic relationships• Time series values• Incremental change
Socio-Economic Drivers
Climatic Drivers QnD Scenarios
• Neo-Plantation with mild Climate Change• Neo-Plantation with intense Climate Change• Etc…
Scenario Integration with Models: QnD as an example
Questions for You
Who will use this GECAFS DSS? How do you or your constituents currently
make decisions? What new techniques are you willing to
explore? What are your information, support and
communication needs? Training/Workshops? Reports? Web Tools?
What does transparency in decisions mean to you? What does it look like? What level of transparency is appropriate?
And remember…you can always change your mind…