scenario thinking to solve complex environmental problems talk for isss meeting steve carpenter...
TRANSCRIPT
Scenario Thinking to SolveComplex Environmental Problems
Talk for ISSS Meeting
Steve CarpenterCenter for Limnology, University of Wisconsin
Topics:
Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions
Scenarios
Summary, Gaps, Needs
Topics:
Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions
Scenarios
Summary, Gaps, Needs
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/apr/14/research.science2See also Martin Rees, Our Final Century (Europe) or Our Final Hour (U.S.)
Evaluations of World-Ending Disasters:
DisasterDanger Score
(1=low, 10=high)Probability
Terrorism 2 Very High
Viral Pandemic 3 Very High
Radiation from Supernova 4 Once per 150M years
Meteorite Impact 5 Medium
Climate Change 6 High
Super Volcanoes 7 0.15% per Century
Global Nuclear War 8 Low
Telomere Erosion 8 Low
Super-Robots Take Over 8Low (high probability of having the robots)
Earth Swallowed by Black Hole 10 Very Low
Overall chance of humanity making it to 2100: ~ 50:50
1 2 5 10 20
Deviation (Std. Devs.)
1e-2
051e
-162
1e-1
191e
-76
1e-3
3T
ail
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Distributions
NormalStudent t, 1 dfStudent t, 10 dfStudent t, 30 df
Effect of Knowledge on Probability of Extreme Events
1 2 5 10 20
Deviation (Std. Devs.)
1e-2
051e
-162
1e-1
191e
-76
1e-3
3T
ail
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Distributions
NormalStudent t, 1 dfStudent t, 10 dfStudent t, 30 df
5 10 15 201e
-20
1e
-10
1e
+0
0
Focus on Student-t TailsP
rob
abili
ty
Deviation
Effect of Knowledge on Probability of Extreme Events
Dry, Windy
Soil erosion
Dust storms
Dust Bowl – North America, 1930s
Cultivation of Marginal Land
Peters, D. P. C., R. A. Pielke, Sr, B. T. Bestelmeyer, C. D. Allen, S. Munson-McGee, and K. M. Havstad. 2004. Cross scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events. Proceedings National Academy Sciences 101:15130-15135.
All Possible Futures
Recognized Uncertainties
Based on Carpenter, Bennett, & Peterson., 2006, Ecology & Society http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29/
Unasked Questions
Models & Observations
All Possible Futures
Recognized Uncertainties
Based on Carpenter, Bennett, & Peterson., 2006, Ecology & Society http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29/
Unasked Questions
Models & Observations
Imaginable Outcomes
Topics:
Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions
Scenarios
Summary, Gaps, Needs
Cor
k, S
. J.
, G
. D
. P
ete
rson
, E
. M
. B
enne
tt,
G.
Pet
sche
l-Hel
d, a
nd M
. Z
ure
k. 2
006.
S
ynth
esis
of
the
stor
ylin
es.
Eco
log
y an
d S
oci
ety
11(
2):
11.
[onl
ine
] U
RL:
htt
p://
ww
w.e
colo
gya
nds
ocie
ty.o
rg/v
ol11
/iss2
/art
11/
(Art by Pille Bunnellfor theM.A.)
Topics:
Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions
Scenarios
Summary, Gaps, Needs
Summary
Scenario processes provide:
Playful, inventive thinking about the future
Positive stories
Blunt warnings
Shadow networks
Diverse people thinking together