scenario planning at tfl: quantifying uncertainty
TRANSCRIPT
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Simon Nielsen Head of Strategic AnalysisTransport for London
Scenario Planning at TfL: Quantifying Uncertainty
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Strategic Analysis
Strategic Analysis
Spatial Planning
Projects
Partnerships
Transport Strategy
City PlanningTfL
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Past trends
Future forecasts
Strategic Analysis – analysing past trends to inform future forecasts
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Tomorrow, another yesterday?
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The wellbeing of a turkey
Days50 100 1500
Source: Nicholas Taleb / Bertrand Russell
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The wellbeing of a turkey
Days50 100 1500
Source: Nicholas Taleb / Bertrand Russell
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The wellbeing of a turkey
Days50 100 1500
Source: Nicholas Taleb / Bertrand Russell
Christmas
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The past doesn’t always predict the future
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‐
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1801 1851 1901 1951 2001 2051Inner London Outer London Greater London
Lond
on’s po
pulatio
n
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WW2
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2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1801 1851 1901 1951 2001 2051Inner London Outer London Greater London
Lond
on’s po
pulatio
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‐
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1801 1851 1901 1951 2001 2051Inner London Outer London Greater London
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Closure of the docks
Lond
on’s po
pulatio
n
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2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1801 1851 1901 1951 2001 2051Inner London Outer London Greater London
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City deregulation
Lond
on’s po
pulatio
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‐
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1801 1851 1901 1951 2001 2051Inner London Outer London Greater London
‐
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1801 1851 1901 1951 2001 2051Inner London Outer London Greater London
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Lond
on’s po
pulatio
n
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There are signs of change...
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95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130In
dex:
200
0 =
100
All trips made in London London daytime population
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Economic uncertainty
Travel behaviour change
New business models
A ‘perfect storm’
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In the past, we have used sensitivity tests
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2011: 25 million trips
2031: 30 million trips
‘Low car’
‘High car’
‘High car’ and ‘low car’ scenarios
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A. Spatial radical changeLand use patterns change
C. Global economic slowdownFall in population and employment & changing
nature of growth
D. Technology radical changeAutonomous vehicles, behavioural change, maximising network
B. Economic radical changeStructural change in the economy
Core reference Case (GLA central case &standard economic
assumptions)
Sensitivity 2 Low growth
Low population, employment and economic
growth
Sensitivity 4 Reduction in discretionary
travel
Sensitivity 1 High population, employment &
economic growth
Sensitivity 3aNo decline in car ownership
Sensitivity 3bFuel price increases
Radical Change
Sensitivity
Core Ref Case
The ‘wheel of uncertainty’
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A Scenario Planning approach takes into account multiple intersecting uncertainties
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Aim: Challenge our assumptions about the future and help us to embrace uncertainty in our plans
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Scoping
Factor research
Interviews
Workshops
Quantification
Scenario planning approach
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Scoping
Factor research
Interviews
Workshops
Quantification
Scenario planning approach
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Contextual Environment
Transactional Environment
GLA Group
DfT
Boroughs
Network Rail
Residents
Data users
Private transport operatorsSuppliers
Developers
Emergency services
Freightoperators
Unions
Geopolitics
Other European
Cities
MPs/ Councillors
Academics
Lobby/ Interest groupsInternational
finance
Aviation
Demographics
Health
Climate Legalisation
EnvironmentSocial values
Tourism
Landowners
Technology
Immigration Macroeconomics
EnergyTrade
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TfL’s wider context
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Scoping
Factor research
Interviews
Workshops
Quantification
Scenario planning approach
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Freight & servicing
Disposable income
Attitudesto
environment
London’s place in
the world
Ways of working
Living in London
Emerging Business models
London’s place in the UK
Culture and
values
The Environment
DevolutionRegional funding
Domestic migration
National inequalities
Perceptions of safety and crime
Connectivity
24/7 City
London’s workforce
Gig economy
Employment sectors
Skills
Redistributive policy
Taxation
Flexible working
Daytimepopulation
Transportcosts
Employment agglomeration
Employment rate
Artificial intelligence
Greenhousegas
emissions
Climate change
Air quality
Majorcatastrophe Extreme
weather
Water security
Energy resources
Agriculture
Electrification
Biodiversity
Environmental regulation
Waste
National borders
Productivity
Economic growth
Geopoliticaltensions
Balance of Trade Trade
warsCyber security
Global financial
crisis
Global City
status
Air travel
Immigration
Attitudesto automation
Sharing culture
Attitudesto tech
Data protection
Foodculture
Shoppingculture
Online deliveries
Leisuretime
IdentitySocial
interaction
Social concerns
Internet of things
Demandresponsive
transit
Customerinformation
Automation
High Speed
rail
Privatisation
Open data
UnmannedArial
Vehicles
Micro mobility
Regulation
Ride hailing
Population growth
Ageing society
Accessibility
Physical activity
Age mix
Cost of living
Family structure
Quality of life
Social inequality
City structure
Frequency of travel
Mental health
Social disorder
Congestion
Crowding Health
Planning framework
Housingsupply
Household tenure
Emerging trends
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Scoping
Factor research
Interviews
Workshops
Quantification
Scenario planning approach
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Interviewing decision makers
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'Automation increases the utility of the city for its citizens
because it’s not so congested anymore. There’s more space for business to be done and it’s also a more pleasant space to be in'
'While public transport authorities have been somewhat stuck in their thinking, private operators have begun to fill in the gaps'
Interviewing decision makers
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Scoping
Factor research
Interviews
Workshops
Quantification
Scenario Planning approach
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Workshops
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Scoping
Factor research
Interviews
Workshops
Quantification
Scenario Planning approach
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New modelling approaches
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Outcome: 3 stories about the future of travel in London
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Innovating London:
The story of London re‐inventing itself as a young, urban innovator, where technology changes how people live and work, but leaves some behind
Rebalancing London:
The story of a more equal but ageing society with lower economic growth, that focuses on self‐sufficiency and liveability as world power moves East
Accelerating London:
The story of an ever‐growing, expanding London which acts as the beating heart of the world financial system, but struggles to deliver high quality of life for all
3 Stories about the future
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Each scenario has distinct implications for travel in London
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Travel Implications
Innovating London
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Less crowding and congestion
Rebalancing London
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Travel Implications
Shorter trips in local area
walking and cycling more attractive
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Travel Implications
High density living increases potential for
public transport
High pressure on radial links into central London
Accelerating London
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Our plans must be robust to a range of different futures
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Major infrastructure projects
Corporate strategy
Mayor’s Transport Strategy policies
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Using the scenarios
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Using the scenarios
a. Reconsider This scheme only meets our objective in our assumed future. Look at other options that meet our objectives in an uncertain future.
c. ProceedThis strategy meets our objective in the majority of scenarios. Proceed but keep scenarios in mind in strategy development.
b. AdjustThis policy doesn’t meet our objective in some of our scenarios. Change the policy to make it work in more scenarios.
• Major Scheme• Transport policy• Corporate strategy
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Plans Scenario test
Outcome Action
Innovating London
Assumedfuture
Rebalancing London
Accelerating London
Objective