scenario building creating and considering stories about equally plausible futures
TRANSCRIPT
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Scenario building
Creating and considering stories about equally plausible futures
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Scenarios
Narratives (stories) that express what your information institution might look like in the future
Used in planning for the future Create various narratives to express
various possibilities Narratives should include you as an
actor—what will your role be
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Scenario building considerations
What are the givens? Hawai‘i will continue to have children
that need an education Old, deteriorating buildings will
continue to need work What are the uncertainties?
Change to smaller school boards? Larger or smaller student population? “Education governor” who budgets
adequate funds for education? A legislature that releases those funds?
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The Steps
Divide into groups
Discuss the environmental forces at work that will influence the future
Discuss possible futures
Create 2 or 3 scenarios
Share at least one of your stories with the rest of the class
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Step One: Organizing
Divide into groups according to information institution type:
Public library
Academic library
School library
Archive
Special (including knowledge management officer for corporation)
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Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Social forces
Changing demographics
Will population of Hawai`i continue to grow?
What about the school-age population?
Ethnic and linguistic diversity
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Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Technology
Information retrieval software
Virtual reference
Provide more resources electronically
e-Books
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Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Economics
Downward or upward economy (U.S. and local)
What would that mean in terms of funding for your institution?
If government funding drops are there other resources available?
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Step Two: Discuss forces at work - Politics
Laws relating to libraries
Political instability
Political support for libraries and other information institutions
Concern for national security
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Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Physical Environment
Cost of paper affected by growing pressure to restrict logging practices
Global warming
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Step Three: Discuss possible futures
What will my library or other information institution look like ten years from now?
What will my role be in that library?
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Step Four: Create 2 or 3 scenarios
Pool knowledge of group
Effect of varied directions for factors examined
Include worst-case scenario
Be sure to include yourselves in your narratives—What will you be doing in this story?
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Step Five: Share a scenario with the class
What type of information institution are you looking at?
What might happen in the socio-economic and political spheres that might produce your scenario?
What will your institution look like?
What will your role be?
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Planning for the future
Don't bet future on single scenario
Make decisions that will be sound for a variety of plausible futures
How will we influence our stories?