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Scenario Analysis of Mega Earthquake and Tsunami in Central Japan

IRDR International Conference, Beijing1 Nov, 2011

Naoki FujiwaraCTI 　 Engineering Co., Ltd. Japan

ICHARM 　 International Centre for Water Hazard Risk Management under the auspices of UNESCO

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Forensic Investigation onGreat East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (GEJET)

Meta & Longitudinal Analysis Characteristics of tsunami fatalities and

losses Comparison with historical events

Critical Cause Analysis Analysis of critical causes for human

loss expansion caused by delayed evacuation

Preparation of a question list for human loss vulnerability evaluation

Scenario Analysis Estimation of damages and losses

caused by tsunami of a similar magnitude to GEJET in central Japan.

Identification of issues and proposal of measures to tsunami of an unexpected magnitude

Proposals to FORIN Template and Questionnaire

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Backgrounds and Objectives Backgrounds◦ In Japan, one single force (hazard level) has been selected as the

design level to be considered in disaster prevension plans and to design/implement structural and non-structural measures.

◦ On the other hand, estimation of damages in case of hazard level exceeding the design level has rarely been conducted.

Objectives◦ Evaluate and analyze the risks of unexpected events.◦ Identify issues of disaster management and risk management in Japan◦ Propose a new approach for “unexpected disasters”.

1. Characteristics of GEJET2. Current estimation of damage by large scale earthquake in central Japan region3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake4. Findings5. Proposal for Future Disaster Prevention

Outline

Iwate

Miyagi

Fukushima

Hirono(0)

Kuji(4)Noda(38)

Fudai(1)Tanohata(31)

Iwaizumi(7)Tarou(180)

Miyako(362)

Yamada(823)Otsuchi(1,397)Kamaishi(1,091)

Ofunato(452)Rikuzentakata(1,951)

Kesennuma(1,405)

Minamisanriku(901)Ishinomaki(3,959)Onagawa(963)

Higashimatsushima(1,145)Matsushima(2)

Rifu(50)Shiogama(21)Tagajou(189) Shichigahama(71)

Miyagino-ku, Sendai(293)

Wakabayashi-ku, Sendai(332)Taihaku-ku, Sendai(53) Natori(984)

Iwanuma(184)Watari(270)Yamamoto(691)Shinchi(110)Soma(459)

Minamisoma(663)Namie(184)Futaba(35)Okuma(81)Tomioka(25)Naraha(13)Hirono(3)

Iwaki(347)

Fire and Disaster Management Agency (As of Sept 9, 2011)

　 Dead or Missing

1～9　

10～99　

100～499　

500～999　

1000～　

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Death cause: More than 90% of people lost their lives du to tsunami

Population in inundated area by tsunami: 540,000

Number of dead and missing: 20,000 (About 3.6% of total population in inundated area)

1. Characteristics of GEJET

Death causes in GEJET(Iwate, Miyagi & Fukushima)

Source: 2011 White paper on disaster management

Tsunami92.4 ％

Fire 1.1%

Crushed by buildings, etc

4.4%Unknown

2%

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Tsunami height exceeded twice the height of coastal levees

1. Characteristics of GEJET

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0 5 10 15 20 25

Hirono(0.0)Kuji(0.1)Noda(1.2)Fudai(0.1)

Tanohata(2.0)Iwaizumi(0.6)Tarou(13.5)Miyako(2.4)Yamada(7.2)Otsuchi(11.7)Kamaishi(8.3)Ofunato(2.4)

Rikuzentakata(11.7)Kesennuma(3.5)

Minamisanriku(6.3)Ishinomaki(3.5)Onagawa(12.0)

Higashimatsushima(3.4)Matsushima(0.0)Shiogama(0.1)

Shichigahama(0.8)Sendai(2.4)Natori(8.1)

Iwanuma(2.3)Watari(1.9)

Yamamoto(7.7)Shinchi(2.4)Soma(4.4)

Minamisoma(5.0)Namie(5.5)Futaba(2.7)Okuma(7.2)Tomioka(1.8)Naraha(0.7)Hirono(0.2)Iwaki(1.1)

(m)

design　levee　heightcurrent　levee　heighttsunam

i　trace　height

(Number of fatalities & missing) / (population in inundated area)

% of people died or missing in inundated area

Iwate

Miyagi

Fukushima

Fire and Disaster Management Agency (As of Sept 9, 2011)

　 0～1　％　

1～3　％　

3～5　％　

5～10　％　

10　％　 <　

1. Characteristics of GEJET

Enormous damage was caused by GEJET. Much of Japan’s population, properties and

industries are concentrate in central Japan region.

What happens if the earthquake of GEJET scale occurs in central Japan region?

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Central Japan regionCentral Japan region

GEJETGEJET

Scenario Analysis in central Japan region１） Estimation of affected population

using elevation data２） Estimation of tsunami inundation area

using computational simulation model３） Estimation of economic damage by

tsunami

Scenario Analysis in central Japan region１） Estimation of affected population

using elevation data２） Estimation of tsunami inundation area

using computational simulation model３） Estimation of economic damage by

tsunami

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Distribution of seismic intensity （ Tokai/tonankai/Nankai earthquake, Expert Committee of Cabinet Office ）

2. Current estimation of damage by large scale earthquake in central Japan region

Scale of the earthquake (Tokai/Tonankai/Nankai) is M8.7. Number of fatalities by the earthquake is 25,000. Of these,

number of fatalities by the tsunami is 9,100. Current estimation of tsunami damage is much smaller than

GEJET.

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Yui area(Tomei Expressway)

Hasmanako Bay area(Tokaido Super Expre

ss Shinkansen)Tokyo

Nagoya

Osaka

3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake in Central Japan

70 percent of the Japan’s land is mountainous. Population and properties are concentrated in the coastal area.

Main roads and railways connecting main cities are located in the coastal area. They have possibilities to be damaged by tsunami.

Traffic of Tomei Expressway: 64,000 cars / day Users of Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen: 370,000 people / day

Numerous large-scale manufacturing centers exist along the coast .(ex.TOYOTA)

Population of inundation area: 5M, Death: 0.2M

（ Aichi, Shizuoka, Gifu and Mie Pref. ）

3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake

Based on the experience of GEJET, the assumed tsunami height was set to be 10 m (5 m in the inner-bay area). It was also assumed that number of fatalities equals to 3.6 % of the population in the inundated area.

Population of the inundated area is about 13,000,000. It is about 10% of the entire population in Japan.

Estimated number of fatalities is about 450,000. 20 times of the current damage assumption.

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Modeling conditions

Computational area

From wave source to coastal areaComputational grid size is gradually reduced as it gets closer to the coast

Tsunami propagation

Linear long wave theory (grid areas of 1350m, 450m, 150m)Non-linear long wave theory (50m grid area)

Land inundation calculation

Two-dimensional unsteady flow analysis

Initial water level〔 =deformation 〕

Deformation is set so that the tsunami height in the coastal area of Tokai/Tonankai/Nankai earthquake deformation becomes twice the current expected height.

Tide level Mean spring level of high tide

3. Expected impact of GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake

Tsunami inundation area was analyzed using a tsunami simulation model. The magnitude of hazard level was set so that the tsunami level becomes about

twice the height of the current expected height. (about 10m).

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Estimated height of tsunami

Yui area12 minutes after the earthquake

Yui area

Numazu

Fuji

Shizuoka

mHamanako Bay area:

20 minutes after the earthquake

IwataHamamatsu

LakeHamanak

o

m

3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake Result of tsunami simulation

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Result of tsunami run up simulation (Yui area)

Tomoe River

MEIDENSHA

Nippon Paper IndustriesAsahi

kasei

Oji Paper

Nippon Light Metal

AJINOMOTO PHARMACEUTICA

LSShizuoka

Yui area

Nippon Light Metal

Fuji

東海道新幹線

Nippon Paper

Industries

ShimizuWard Office

Numazu City Hall

Tokaido Line

Tomei Expressway

Route 1

Fuji City Hall

Fuji River

3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake

Numazu

Depth　m

In Shizuoka City with 230,000 populations, the tsunami arrives about 10 minutes after the earthquake

4 m inundation depth in Tomei Expressway which is the arterial highway connecting east and west Japan

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Route 150

Kiku River

SUZUKISagara factory

Hamaoka Nuclear

Power Station

Tomei-Expressway

Makinohara

Omaezaki

Kikugawa

JASDF Omaezaki Sub Base

SekisuihouseShizuoka factory

BRIDGESTONE ELASTECH

Kakegawa

GYABAN Shizuoka factory

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry

MARUEI CONCRETE INDUSTRY

MARUEI CONCRETE INDUSTRY

Daito Chemix

Omaezaki City Hall

Makinohara

City Hall

Depth　m

3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake

Result of tsunami run up simulation (Hamaoka nuclear power plant)

About 3 m inundation depth at Hamaoka nuclear power plant

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Tenryu River

Depth　m

Kawai Musical

Instruments Mfg

JT

YAMAHA

Iwata

LakeHamanak

o

Hamamatsu

Fukuroi

SUZUKI MOTOR

Hamamatsu StationJR Tokaihamamatsu

factory

SUZUKI MOTOR

Hamamatsu City Hall

IwataCity Hall

FukuroiCity Hall

Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen

Tokaido Line

Tomei Expressway

Route 1

3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake

JT Hamamatsu factory

Result of tsunami run up simulation (Hamanako Bay area)

5 m inundation depth of Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen

4 m inundation depth at Hamamatsu station of the Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen

Many disaster prevention facilities and large scale factories are inundated

3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake

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Iwata

Hamamatsu

LakeHamanako

m

Hamanako Bay area

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Estimated damage and losses◦ Losses caused by transportation interruption at Yui area

Economic loss incurred by interruption of the highway at Yui area is 12.57 billion yen / day *1

Total economic loss is 150 billion yen, assuming a recovery period of four months *2

◦ Losses caused by operation interruption of Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen Economic losses of canceled trips are about 50 billion yen / day, if the

Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen operation is stopped *3

About 2 trillion yen in economic losses, assuming a recovery period of one year *4

This only accounts for reduction of consumption activities by travelers. The losses will be enormous if considering their consequential economic impacts.

*1 “Basic study on impact assessment by blocking road traffic”*2 Took four months to recover highway, GEJET *3 “Functional evaluation study of alternative of Tokaido Super Express

Shinkansen by Hokuriku Shinkansen”*4 Affected coastal railways still has not recovered after 7 months after GEJET

3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake

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Estimated impacts (qualitative estimation)◦ Inundation damages of major factories and offices

Direct damage of office supplies, office equipment and machinery building plant

Suspension and stagnant of sales and businesses Impact on the entire supply chain including non-affected areas

◦ Impacts of inundation of the nuclear power plant Direct damage by collapsed buildings Evacuation of residents if there is the possibility of radiation

leakage (200,000 residents within a 20km radius of the plant) Influence of power outage (supplying about 15% of the Central

Region of Japan)

3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake

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Magnitude of damages is well over the current estimation level Casualties (dead or missing) Economic damage Paralyzed urban functions (=> loss of living environment) Paralyzed production functions (=> loss of working environm

ent) Potential impacts currently not assumed in damage estimates

became evident Influence of long-term unavailability of arterial transportation

lines Spreading of impacts to non-affected areas (economic

losses) Delays in emergency activities because of damages to

disaster prevention facilities Inundation of nuclear power plants which were considered to

be located in a safe location

4. Findings

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Countermeasures against unexpected large-scale disasters Robust structures in order to prevent damage Measures to minimize damage (secure shelter, anti-floodin

g, etc) Enhancement of preparedness and training to promote

correct understanding and appropriate actions for disasters (prevention of human suffering)

Measures to break the chain of damage expansion (concatenation) Ensure redundancy to suppress the spreading of damages

(life-lines, supply chains) Planning assistance from non-affected areas for early recov

ery and reconstruction (base of operations and coordination)

5. Proposal for Future Disaster Prevention

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Thank you for your attention.