SEPTEMBER 1964

survey of

CURRENTBUSINESS

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEOFFICE OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESSSEPTEMBER 1964 VOL. 44, NO. 9

ContentsTHE BUSINESS SITUATION PAGE

Summary 1

Capital Investment Continues Strong Rise 3

Manufacturers Expect Higher Inventories and Sales in SecondHalf of 1964 6

The Balance of Payments During the Second Quarter of1964 7

National Income and Corporate Profits . . . . , , , 18GNP by Major Industries, 1963 19

ARTICLEPatterns of Output Growth 21

REVISED STATISTICAL SERIESManufacturing and Trade Total and Retail Inventories... . . 28

* * *

MONTHLY BUSINESS STATISTICSGeneral S1-S24Industry . . . . S24-S40Subject Index Inside Back Cover

U.S. Department of CommerceLuther H. Hodges

Secretary

Richard H. HoltonAssistant Secretary for

Economic AffairsOffice of Business Economics

George JasziDirector

Louis J. ParadisoM. H. SchwartzAssociate Directors

Murray F. FossEditor

K. Celeste StokesStatistics Editor

Billy Jo HurGraphics

STAFF COiNTRIBUTORSTO THIS ISSUE

Business Review and Features:David R. Hull, Jr.Genevieve B. Wimsatt and StaffMarie P. Hertzberg and StaffJack J. GottsegenWalther Lederer

Marie T. BradshawMax Lechter

Article:Francis L. Hirt

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By the Office of Business Economics

uctuon

J_j CONOMIC conditions continue toimprove and businessmen continue toview prospects in a favorable light.The improvement in activity and pur-chasing power during August was evi-dent in further increases in retail trade,personal income, and industrial pro-duction. Expectations of improvedbusiness were apparent in the latestquarterly survey of plant and equip-ment expenditures, which is reportedon page 3. The August survey showednot only higher investment outlays forthe third and fourth quarters but alsoa small upward revision in spendingprograms. Manufacturing companies,moreover, anticipate a moderate step-up in inventory accumulation duringthe second half, as well as some furtherincrease in their sales.

Corporate profits upBusiness decisions to undertake new

investment have been influenced by thesustained rise in corporate earnings.The most recent figures for the secondquarter show that corporate profits be-fore taxes, including the inventoryvaluation adjustment, rose $1% billionto reach a record $58 billion.

By industry, the second quarter in-crease centered in nondurable goodsmanufacturing, mainly in the petro-leum, printing, textile, and tobaccoindustries. Among durable goods man-ufacturers, substantial gains over thepreceding quarter were scored by pro-ducers of motor vehicles and othertransportation equipment, primarymetals, and electrical machinery.These were partially offset by smalldeclines in lumber, fabricated metals,the stone, clay, and glass group, andfurniture and fixtures.

Revised second quarter data onprofits and national income appear onpage 18.

Personal income higher

Personal income rose in August to arecord $494 billion rate, an increase of$2% billion over the revised July total.More than $2 billion of the increase was

With strong increases programed for thesecond half, outlays this year are expected toexceed $44 billion, $5 billion more than 1963

Billion $50

40

30

20

10

20

10

20

10

20

ALL BUSINESS

u_ MANUFACTURING -

- COMMUNICATIONS AND COMMERCIAL-

J I

PUBLICOTHER

1957 58

nticipated

UTILITIES RAILROADS ANDTRANSPORTATION

159 60 61 62 63 64

Annual Totals

1 , , , 1 , , ,

1963 64Quarterly

Seasonally Adjustedat Annual Rates

Data: QBE - SEC

U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

in wages and salaries, almost half of itin government payrolls. Federal work-ers received larger paychecks last monthbecause of a pay raise, the effect ofwhich was accentuated by the paymentof retroactive increases to July 1, thestart of the new fiscal year. Privatewages and salaries moved moderatelyhigher, mainly as a result of some rise,after seasonal allowance, in averagehours per week and in rates of pay.

Employment in nonfarm establish-ments seemed to show little improve-ment in August. Although the un-adjusted rise over July was 240,000,the seasonally adjusted gain was only15,000, by far the smallest of the year,and attributable almost wholly to in-creased State and local governmentemployment. In the private sector adrop in manufacturing of about 50,000was offset by a similar increase in non-manufacturing. Much of the adjusteddecline in manufacturing last monthwas in the auto industry, which closeddown for model changeovers at anearlier-than-normal date. Because sea-sonal adjustments are especially hardto make in the summer months,a clearer assessment of employmentchanges must await developments inthe autumn.

In August the seasonally adjustedunemployment rate edged up to 5.1percent, the same as the average fromMay through July. Monthly move-ments in the rate are erratic; over theyear as a whole there has been a clearimprovement in the unemploymentsituation.Retail sales high

Consumer spending has been buoyantall year, and especially in the past fewmonths. According to the advancereport for August, retail sales were upalmost 1 percent over July, with most

1Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS September 1964

of the gain attributable to automobiles.With August retail sales nearly 2 per-cent above the average for the secondquarter, it is expected that thirdquarter consumption expenditures willshow a substantial increase.

Dealer sales of new automobiles wereexceptionally high in August. The570,000 domestically produced unitsthat were sold represented a seasonallyadjusted annual rate of about 8Kmillion, as compared with a rate ofsome 7K million in July. The August

Extensions have exceeded repaymentsI or three \ears . . .

Billion18

NET CHANGE

Illllli, .nil_1 i I I I I

1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964

Hut have shown little change relativeto income since 1962

Percent of Disposable Income18

NET CHANGE

Him- -2 . . > i I . ' > I < ' > I ' > > I > i i I i i i

1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964Seasonally Adjusted

Data: QBE - FRBU.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 64-9-2

performance undoubtedly was a re-action to the trucking strike, whichlasted 4 weeks, from late June to lateJuly. A combination of June, July,and August would yield a rate of about7% million units, not much differentfrom the first and second quarter rates.

At the end of August, dealers heldmore than 850,000 cars in inventory, ofwhich somewhat less than 700,000 were1964 models. Throughout the summerauto inventories have been high as amatter of policy on the part of pro-ducers. Late in the model years of1962 and 1963, sales were held downby low stocks.

Wholesale prices little changedThe continued rise in business ac-

tivity has had little effect on overallindustrial prices this summer. TheAugust index of wholesale prices ofcommodities other than farm and foodproducts was unchanged over themonth, and from the second quarteraverage. Mainly because of lowerprices for farm products, the totalindex fell fractionally in August to alevel slightly above the April-Juneaverage.

Among industrial prices, changesfrom July to August were again mixed.Gasoline, lumber, and automotive prod-uct prices fell, but quotations werehigher for beverages, hides, metals,textiles, and nonmetallic mineral prod-ucts. There w^as a sharp rise in theiron and steel group. Steel scrap pricesincreased on the average but were lowertoward the end of the month; basicsteel mill product prices continuedabout unchanged. Higher quotationsfor primary lead, certain fabricatedcopper products, and nonferrous scrapwere responsible for another largeadvance in the nonferrous metals, whichare now 6 percent above year-ago levels.Consumer prices up slightly

The consumer price index rose 0.3percent in July mainly because oflarger-than-seasonal gains in the pricesof meat, fruits, and vegetables. TheJuly index was somewhat more than 1percent above its year-ago levelanannual rate of increase about in linewith advances over the past few years.

Retail prices of beef and pork showedtheir largest increases of the year in

July, reflecting the stronger tone inwholesale markets for cattle and hogs.Despite the rise, meat prices are stillbelow the level of early 1964, if seasonalfactors are taken into account, andare also under year-ago figures. Therecent ir creases may be temporarysince overall supplies at the farm levelare comparatively high relative todemand at current prices.

Price changes of items other thanfood were mixed from June to July,but were unchanged on balance, andhave continued so since last autumn.Apparel and fuel costs declined a bitover the month, new car and householddurable goods prices held steady, andservice costs continued to edge up.Expansion in consumer credit

Consumer purchasing this year con-tinues to be bolstered by extensive useof consumer credit. Net additions tocreditinstallment and noninstall-mentaveraged close to $600 millionper month in the first quarter and $580million in the second quarter, afterseasonal adjustment. During July thenet increase totaled $675 million. Overthe first 7 months of the year, net addi-tions have exceeded an annual rate of$7 billion, as compared with the $6%billion record in 1963.

Installment debt, which accounts forabout three-fourths of total consumercredit outstanding, increased sharplyduring the first quarter, particularly inFebruary, when retail sales spurted.Apparently consumers took on newcommitments with the expectation thatthe passage of the tax-cut bill wouldease the repayment burden of the newdebt. Second quarter gains in install-ment credit were more moderate, wellbelow the first quarter average; addi-tions to noninstallment debt, however,were at a very high rate.

A comparison with the flow of incomeprovides a rough measure for gagingcredit use. In these terms credit usedoes not appear to be abnormally highin the recent period. For example, atthe end of June 1964, installment creditoutstanding amounted to 13 percent ofdisposable personal income. Althoughthis ratio is historically high, its riseover the past year is about in line withthe long-term trend over the past

(Continued on page 20)Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

September 1964 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

Capital Investment Continues Strong Rise

BUSINESSMEN expect to increasetheir expenditures for new plant andequipment throughout the second halfof 1964, according to the survey ofinvestment intentions conducted dur-ing August by the Department ofCommerce and the Securities and Ex-change Commission. After increasingin the second quarter capital outlaysare expected to rise about $1 billion inthe third quarter and another $1%billion in the fourth quarter, to reach aseasonally adjusted annual rate above$46 billion.

The $43K billion rate actually spentfor new plant and equipment duringthe spring quarter exceeded outlaysanticipated in the survey taken 3months ago. Current anticipations forthe second half also represent an upwardrevision. Expected expenditures forthe full year 1964 would total $44.2billion, a $5 billion or 13 percentadvance over 1963. Three monthsago the projected annual increase was12 percent and in the February surveyit was 10 percent.

While most lines of business haveTable 1.Carryover of Plant and Equip-

ment Projects, Manufacturing and PublicUtilities l

[Billions of dollars]

ManufacturingDurable goods 2

Primary metalsElectrical machinery.Machinery exclud-

ing; electrical ._T r a n s p o r t a t i o n

equipmentStone, clay and glass.

Nondurable goods 2Food and beverage__TextilePaper.ChemicalPetroleum

Public utilities

1962

g fe

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS September 1964

and steel producers' investment is pro-gramed to increase more than one-fourth this year, with a fairly steadyquarterly pattern of spending. Bothelectrical machinery and nonautomotivetransportation equipment producers arereducing capital expenditures this yearas compared with 1963.

The downward revision in the invest-ment programs of the nondurable goodsproducers from plans of 3 months agohas centered in the petroleum andtextile industries. Still, current sched-ules call for increases of about one-sixth over 1963 outlays. Chemicaland paper firms have revised upwardcurrent year outlays with sizable in-creases programed for the second half.

Manufacturers' carryover of uncom-pleted projects rises

The increase in manufacturing invest-ment programs is apparent in the latestdata on the backlog of uncompletedprojects. Manufacturers estimatedthat as of the end of June, $11% billion

remained to be spent on investmentprojects already underway. This totalrepresented an increase of $2% billionover the corresponding total as of June1963; the March-to-March increase was$1% billion. The June 1964 carryoverwas 60 percent of expenditures expectedfor the second half of the year, ascompared with a corresponding ratioof 56 percent a year ago.

Of the $2% billion rise in cany overfrom June 1963, about two-thirds wasaccounted for by the nondurable goodsindustries and one-third by durablegoods producers. All of the nondurablegoods groups, except food, reportedsubstantial increases over the year inthe amounts yet to be expended onprojects already underway. Within thedurable goods group the bulk of therise in carryover was accounted for byiron and steel producers.

Estimates of the value of new proj-ects started during a quarter may bederived by adding the change in carry-over over the quarter to expendituresduring the quarter. "Starts" rose from

Table 2.Starts of New Plant and Equip-ment Projects Manufacturing and PublicUtilities x

[Billions of dollars]

ManufacturingDurable goods 2

Primary metalsElectrical machinery.Machinery excluding

electricalTransportation equip-

ment -_ _ _ -Stone, clay and glass -

Nondurable goods 2Food and beverage. __TextilePaperChemicalPetroleum _ __ _ __

Public utilities

Quarterly, unadjusted

1963

I

4.682.47.63.20

.59

.55

.14

2.20.30.14.30.34.89

2.10

II

4.302.27.51.17

.22

.70

.14.

2.03.25.17..21.39.78

1.67

III

4.132.06.64.14

.21

.39

.17

2 07201424497778

IV

4.422.12.46.18

.30

.45

.14

2.30.29.23.20.38.96

1.48

19

I

5.102,48.50.16

.55

.49

.19

2.61.26.20.19.59

1.101.92

64

II

5.412.65. 77.20

.36

.63

.22

2.76.24.19.40.60

1.031.54

1. Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover toexpenditures during the given period.

2. Includes industries not shown separately.Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Busi-

ness Economics, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

the first to the second quarter this year,whereas they declined in the corre-sponding period of 1963. This overallpattern characterized both the durableand nondurable goods groups.

Table 3.Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment by U.S. Business,1 1962-64

[Billions of dollars]

ALL INDUSTRIES

Manufacturing industries _ _ _ _

Durable goods industriesPrimary iron and steelPrimary nonferrous metalElectrical machinery and equip-

mentMachinery, except electricalMotor vehicles and partsTransportation equipment, exclud-

ing motor vehiclesStone, clay and glassOther durable goods 3 _

Nondurable goods industriesFood and beverageTextilePaperChemicalPetroleumRubberOther nondurable goods 4

Mining _ _ _

Railroads

Transportation, other than rail

Public utilities

Communication _ .

Commercial and other 5 _ _ __ _

Annual

1962

37.31

14.68

7.031.10.31

.681.27.83

.47

.581.79

7.65.99.61.72

1.562.88.23.66

1.08

.85

2.07

5.48

3.63

9.52

1963

39.22

15.697.851.24.41

.691.241.06

.53

.612.05

7.84.97.64.72

1.612.92.24.73

1.04

1.10

1.92

5.65

3.79

10.03

19642

44.21

18.27

9.191.59.46

.671.531.41

.48

.682.36

9.081.02.76.93

1.863.44.26.81

1.12

1.46

2.31

6.07

14.98

Quarterly, unadjusted

1962

I

8.02

3.14

1.44.22.06

.14

.27

.17

.09

.12

.38

1.69.22.13.15.37.62.05.14

.26

.16

.47

1.06

.88

2.06

II

9.50

3.69

1.77.28.07

.16

.33

.22

.11

.16

.44

1.92.26.16.18.40.69.06.18

.27

.26

.60

1.37

.93

2.37

III

9.62

3.72

1.79.29.08

.17

.32

.22

.13

.14

.44

1.93.24.15.18.37.76.06.16

.28

.24

.50

1.54

.87

2.48

IV

10.18

4.13

2.03.31.10

.21

.35

.22

.15

.16

.53

2.10.26.17.20.43.80.06.18

.27

.20

.50

1.52

.95

2.60

1963

I

8.25

3.27

1.62.23.09

.15

.27

.19

.12

.13

.44

1.65.22.15.14.36.59.05.15

.24

.21

.39

1.04

.85

2.26

II

9.74

3.92

1.96.30.10

.18

.30

.28

.13

.16

.51

1.95.26.18.18.40.70.06.19

.26

.28

.54

1.40

.95

2.41

III

10.14

3.951.96.33.12

.16

.28

.29

.13

.15

.51

1.99.25.15.19.39.76.07.18

.27

.29

.45

1.60

.93

2.64

IV

11.09

4.56

2.31.39.11

.20

.39

.30

.16

.17

.60

2.25.24.17.21.47.87.07

.28

.33

.54

1.61

1.06

2.72

1964

I

9.40

3.79

1.93.34.09

.14

.33

.25

.11

.14

.51

1.87.24.14.18.37.70.06.18

.26

.32

.51

1.18

.97

2.37

II

11.11

4.53

2.30.40.11

.16

.40

.37

.12

.1758

2.23.27.1822

!47.84.06.20

.29

.36

.63

1.58

1.10

2.61

III 2

11.28

4.64

2.31.40.12

.17

.35

.39

.12

.1858

2.33.26.21.25.45.89.07.20

.29

.34

.56

1.63

ls.81

IV 2

12.43

5.302.66.46.14

.20

.45

.40

.14

.1968

2.64.24.24.28.58

1.01.07.23

.28

.44

.61

1.69

4.11

Quarterly, seasonally adjusted at annual rates

1962

I

35.70

14.20

6.551.00.25

.701.15.80

.40

7.60.95.55.70

1.702.85

1.15

.70

2.05

5.15

3.70

8.75

II

36.95

14.456.951.10.30

.651.30.85

.40

7.501.00.60.70

1.552.70

1.05

.95

2.25

5.40

3.65

9.25

III

38.35

15.05

7.251.20.30

.651.30.80

.50

7.801.00.65.70

1.503.10

1.10

1.00

2.00

5.75

3.60

9.85

IV

37.95

15.007.301. 10.35

.701.25.85

.55

7.701.00.65.75

1.502.85

1.00

.80

1.90

5.45

3.60

10.20

1963

I

36.95

14.85

7.351.05.40

.751.20.90

.50

7.50.95.65.65

1.602.80

1.05

.90

1.70

5.20

3.55

9.65

II

38.05

15.307.651. 15.40

.751.151.05

.55

7.65.95.65.70

1.552.80

1.00

1.00

2.05

5.45

3.65

9.65

III

40.00

15.95

8.001.30.45

.651.201.10

.50

8.001.00.60.75

1.603.00

1.05

1.20

1.85

5.90

3.85

10.20

IV

41.20

16.45

8.301.40.40

.651.401.10

.55

8.15.95.65.80

1.653.05

1.05

1.35

2.10

5.80

4.05

10.45

1964

I

42.55

17.40

8.851.60.40

.701.451.25

.50

8.551.05.60.80

1.653.30

1.15

1.40

2.30

5.95

4.05

10.25

II

43.50

17.80

9.001.60.45

.651.551.35

.45

8.801.00.65.90

1.803.35

1.15

1.25

2.25

6.30

4.30

10.45

III 2

44.55

18.70

9.351.55.50

.701.501.50

.50

9.351.05.85

1.001.853.50

1.15

1.40

2.25

6.00

iis.io

IV 2

46.15

19.05

9.501.60.50

.701.601.50

.50

9.55.95.90

1.002.053.55

1.10

1.90

2.45

6.00

15.60

1. Data exclude expenditures of agricultural business and outlays charged to currentaccount.

2. Estimates are based on anticipated capital expenditures reported by business in August1964. The estimates for 1964 have been adjusted when necessary for systematic tendenciesin anticipatory data.

3. Includes fabricated metal, lumber, furniture, instrument, ordnance, and miscellaneousindustries.

4. Includes apparel, tobacco, leather, and printing-publishing.5. Includes trade, service, finance, and construction.NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Data for earlier years were pub-

lished in the June 1956, March 1958,1960,1961,1962, and 1963 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS.Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and Securities

and Exchange Commission.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

September 1964 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

Transportation outlays rise sharply

Transportation companies' expendi-tures for new plant and equipment,comprising a relatively ^mall part oftotal investment, are noteworthy fortheir sharp expansion this year. In-creases of one-third and one-fifth over1963 are now programed by the railand norirail groups, respectively.

Railroads spent somewhat less inthe second quarter than in the first,but are now projecting sharply risingexpenditures in the second half; fourthquarter outlays are expected to reach arecord $1.9 billion. The expansioncenters in equipment purchases.

Nonrail transportation firms are alsoprograming rising expenditures, to arecord $2% billion in the last quarterof this year. The second half ex-

pansionas well as the upward revisionin capital budgets for the group as awhole since the last surveystemsprimarily from the trucking industry.

Commercial investment high

Communications and commercialfirms are projecting a record expendi-ture of $15 billion for 1964, 8 percentabove 1963. Second half outlays areexpected to be well above those of thefirst half, with retail trade programsespecially strong.

Expenditures by public utilities arealso moving up to record levels afterseveral years of little change. Outlaysare expected to reach $6 billion thisyear7 percent above 1963with notmuch change anticipated from the firstto the second half.

Table 2.Manufacturers' Evaluation of theCondition of Their Inventories 1

[Percentage distribution]

Manufacturers Expect Higher Inventories and Salesin Second Half of 1964

MANUFACTURERS look for contin-ued inventory accumulation and risingsales through the end of 1964, accord-ing to the regular quarterly survey ofmanufacturers' anticipations, conductedin August by the Office of Business

Economics. Factory stocks are ex-pected to rise over $1 billion in thesecond half of this year after increasingabout one-quarter billion dollars in thefirst half. Fourth quarter sales areexpected to be 2 percent above the

Table 1.Manufacturers' Inventories and Sales: Actual and Anticipated[Billions of dollars]

Inventories, end ofquarter

UnadjustedAll manufacturing

DurablesNondurables

Seasonally adjustedAll manufacturing

DurablesNondurables

Sales, total for quarterUnadjusted

l ) i i r a l . i ^Nu'i.l 'UMhles -.- _ -

nni< adjustedAll mar til u '

Durables.. _Nondurables .

I

53.731 921.8

53.531.fi21.9

87,943.244.8

M8.fi43.7it . 9

19

II

53.731 722.0

53.431.422.0

93.548.245.3

91.546.145.4

61

III

53.731 622.0

53.931.822.1

92.045.346.7

93.747.346.4

IV

54.83? 222.5

55.132.622.4

97.249.747.5

96.549.147.4

I

56.333 722.6

56.033.422.6

98.851.147.7

99.651.747.9

19

II

56.634 122.5

56.733.822.9

102. 554. 348.2

100.251.848.3

62

III

57.134 023.1

57.334.123.2

97.849.148.7

100.051.548.5

IV

57.433 923.5

57.834.323.4

100.651.749.0

99.951.148.7

I

58.434 923.5

58.134.623.5

101.051.949.1

101.952.649.3

19

II

59.035 523.5

58.735.223.6

107.057.050.0

104.454.250.1

63

III

58.835 423.5

59.135.523.6

102. 552.250.4

105.054.850.2

IV

59.735 624. 2

60. 136.024. 1

106.855.851.0

106.255.350.9

i

60.736 424.3

60.336.124.2

108.056.351.7

109.157.152.1

19(

II

60.736 823.9

60.436. 523.9

114. 260.653.6

111.157.553.6

34

III1

60. 536 623.9

60.836.824.0

110.355.954.4

113.158.954.2

IVi

61.336 824.5

61.537.224.3

113. 859.354.5

113.559.054.5

1959March 31June 30Sept 30Dec. 31

I960March 31June 30Sept. 30Dec. 31

1961March 31 -June 30Sept 30Dec. 31 . _ _

1962March 31June 30Sept. 30Dec. 31

1963March 31June 30Sept 30Dec. 31

1964March 31June 30

s

15201620

26292424

18141010

14141514

15151713

1613

Pota]

o

6Nondurable goods producers nowproject a 1 percent sales rise in thethird quarterless than the quarterlyincrease during the first half. Salesare then expected to increase one-halfof 1 percent in the closing 3 months of theyear to a new high of about $55 billion.

Actual sales in the first two quartersplus current projections for the thirdand fourth quarters yield a 1964 totalthat is 7 percent above 1963. Salesprojections by manufacturers reportedin the Plant and Equipment Expendi-tures Survey in February placed theexpected rise for the year at 6 percent.

SURVEY OF CURKEXT BUSINESS

Durable goods sales are about 1 percentabove the earlier expectations andnondurables about 2 percent.

Moderate inventory accumulationanticipated

Manufacturers plan to add $400million to their inventories in the thirdquarter and an additional $700 millionin the fourth quarter, after seasonaladjustment. The projected additionswould be substantially larger than theJanuary-June average quarterly in-crease of a little over $100 million. Byyearend manufacturers' inventories are

Inventories and sales expected to rise to Yearendicith little change in stock-sales ratios

DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERSBillion $ Billion $ Billion $ Billion $

1.5

1.0

-.5

-1.0

Ratio3.0

2.5

2.0

40 -.5

-1.0

Inventory Change(left scale)

Sales(right scale)

60

55

50

45

40

1959 61 62 63 64 ' 1959 60 61 62 63 64*

1.5

Inventory-Sales Ratio Inventory-Sales Ratio

Ratio2.5

2.0

1.5

1.01959 60 61 62 63 64" 1959 60 61 62 63 64*

Seasonally Adjusted

* 3d and 4th quarters are anticipated / Note: - Inventories, end of quarter; sales, 1U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

jtal for quarter

September 1964

expected to reach $61^ billion. The$1.4 billion rise for the year compareswith additions of about $2}, billion inboth 1962 and 1963.

Durable goods producers are pro-jecting inventory increases of almostequal magnitude in the third andfourth quarters$300 million and $400million, respectively; during the secondquarter durable goods stocks rose about$400 million. Yearend inventories of$37% billion would be equivalent to 1.9months of sales, a ratio that is some-what lower than the correspondingfigure a year ago.

Nondurable goods producers expectto add $100 million to their inventoriesbetween June and September and anadditional $300 million by yearend. Atmidyear nondurable goods inventorieswere a little lower than they were at theend of 1963. Thus, if current expecta-tions are realized, stocks at the endof 1964 will be only slightly higherthan they were a year earlier. Theexpected yearend stock-sales ratio isabout 1.35, compared to about 1.40 inDecember 1963.

Current inventory condition

Manufacturers considered their stocksat the end of June to be in somewhatbetter shape than they were at the endof March. The June figures showed asignificant drop from March in the pro-portion of inventories regarded as"high;" this proportion was the sameas was reported for the end of lastDecember.

Manufacturers holding 13 percent oftotal factory stocks classified theirJune inventories as "high" in relationto sales and unfilled orders. Firmsaccounting for 84 percent of stockscharacterized their inventories as"about right," while the remainderdesignated their inventories as "low."

Manufacturers holding 16 percent ofdurable goods inventories judged theirstocks as "high," slightly below theMarch ratio and close to the averageratio for 1963. Only 9 percent ofnondurable goods manufacturers' in-ventories were classified as "high," thelowest ratio since early 1962.

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

The Balance of Payments During the Second Quarter of 1964'USING the second quarter the

international reserves of the monetaryauthorities of the United States de-clined by $303 million. Gold reservesincreased by $73 millionthe firstrise during a quarterly period sincethe second quarter of 1961. Holdingsof convertible foreign currencies de-clined by $258 million, however, andthe gold tranche position of the UnitedStates in the International MonetaryFund was reduced by $118 million,mainly because of our drawings of$125 million. The gold tranche po-sition represents nearly automaticdrawing rights on the IMF for con-vertible foreign currencies. At theend of June these drawing rightsamounted to $786 million.

Liquid liabilities to foreigners, con-sisting of their deposits in U.S. banks,their holdings of marketable timedeposit certificates, marketable Govern-ment securities and privately issuedshort-term obligations, increased by$199 million (revised from $245 millionshown in the preliminary estimatereleased last month). Foreign hold-ings of nonmarketable medium-termGovernment securities convertible intocash at short notice rose by $122million.

Thus, the balance on our inter-national transactions during the secondquarter, measured by changes in U.S.official monetary reserves and in liquidliabilities to foreigners, was adverseby $624 million if foreign holdings ofconvertible medium-term Governmentsecurities are included among theliquid liabilities. If they are excluded? v n d considered long-term foreign invest-ments in the United States, the balance\vas $502 million (table I, lines Claand C2a).

Seasonal factors improved the balanceby about $110 million. Payments onimports, tourist expenditures, Govern-ment grants and capital outflows, and

private capital outflows are seasonallyhigh during the second quarter, but theseasonal effects on these transactionsare more than compensated by theseasonal rise in merchandise exports.After adjustment of the various typesof transactions for seasonal changesthe balance including the convertiblemedium-term Government securitieswas $733 million; excluding these se-curities it was $611 million (table I,lines Cl and C2). Both of these bal-ances correspond to a balance of $85million in the first quarter when foreignholdings of convertible nonmarketablemedium-term Government securitiesdid not change. For the full year 1963

Billion $28

MERCHANDISE TRADE

24

20

16

12

8

4

Exports

\Imports

NET MOVEMENT OF U.S. CAPITAL (Outflow -)

the corresponding balances were $2,644and $1,942 million respectively.

Special Government transactionsshift to net payment

A major factor in the increase of thenegative balance from the first to thesecond quarter was the change in"special" Government transactions(other than the convertible medium-term, nonmarketable securities), par-ticularly advance payments on militarysales.

During the first quarter, cash re-ceipts on military contracts exceededdeliveries by about $150 million; inthe second quarter cash receipts fell

Billion $7

Direct Investments

-4

Total

-81953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64

U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

-21963 1964

QuarterlySeasonally Adjusted,

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

8 SUKVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS September 1964

short of deliveries by about $75 million(table 1, line B2), (These figures arestill based on uncertain informationand are subject to revision.) As other"special" Government transactionswere offsetting in the first quarter andwere relatively small in the second(table 1, lines 1 and 3), the balance onall "special" transactions changed fromnet credits of $148 million in the firstquarter to net debits of $51 million inthe second, thus accounting for about$200 million of the shift in the over-allbalance.

Erratic movements

Apart from these special types ofGovernment transactions the seasonallyadjusted balance on the other ("reg-ular") types of transactions thuschanged from net debits of $230 millionin the first quarter to about $680million in the second.

To a large extent this was not un-expected. As had been pointed out inthe June issue of the Survey, the balancein the first quarter was favorablyaffected by transactions or conditionsof verv short run significance. Some

ExcludingIncluding

Net Receipts From Sales ofNonmarketable Medium-TermConvertible GovernmentSecurities

Table 1 Line ClTable 1 Line C2

Excluding Net Receipts From Other Special GovernmentTransactions (Table 1 Line A13)

Billion $2

TOTAL

Billion $.5

-2

-1.0

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 1963 1964Quarterly

Seasonally Adjusted,WITH WESTERN EUROPE WITH OTHER AREAS

-2

-4

-6

-.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2

-6

-.5

-1.0

-1.51960 61 62 63 1963 1964

Quarterly1960 61 62 63 1963 1964

Quarterly

*Except changes in U.S. reserves and in liquid liabilities

U.S. Department ot Commerce, Office of Business Economics

of these continued into the secondquarter, but their effect on the balancehad become smaller. Most importantwere the large shipments of foodstuffsto Western Europe and the Soviet blocin consequence of exceptionally bad1963 harvests.

Other developments or transactionswith an erratic effect on the movementof the over-all balance appear to havebeen relatively small in the secondquarter, and partly offsetting. Majoroutflows of corporate funds duringApril for short-term investment abroad(not included in direct investments),which contributed to a relatively largeadverse balance in that month, ap-parently were followed by reductionsin such investments during the follow-ing 2 months. The outstandingamounts of such investmentsafterseasonal adjustmentdid not changesignificantly during the quarter as awhole.

Short-term capital outflows reportedby banks for June included a majorincrease in dollar and foreign currencydeposits abroad, a large part of whichappear to have been repatriated inJuly. Direct investments were alsoaffected by several unique or temporarytransactions, but largely with an off-setting effect.

A rough estimate of these erratictypes of capital movements, to theextent that they are known, wouldsuggest that they may have worsenedthe balance during the second quarterby perhaps $100 to $150 million. Thiswould in part have been compensated,however, by the extraordinary exportscontinued from the first quarter. Thenet adverse effect of these very shortterm or erratic influences on the balancemay not have been more than $50million. This would compare withfavorable net effects of such develop-ments in the first quarter in the generalmagnitude of $200 to $300 million, sothat their quarter to quarter changemay account for as much as $300 millionof the decline in the balance.Changes in foreign and domestic

economiesPerhaps a smaller, but in the longer

run more significant, part of the changeof the balance from the first to thesecond quarter may be attributed to

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

September 1964 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 9

the economic developments in theUnited States and in the major foreigncountries. In the United States, finaldemandparticularly for durablegoodscontinued to expand and in-ventory accumulations exceeded thosein the first quarter. Orders for ma-chinery and equipment accelerated, andwith new orders exceeding shipments,delivery periods have lengthened. Atthe same time financial resources ofcorporations as well as of the bankingsystem remained high.

In contrast, in many of the majorcountries in Western Europe, and inCanada and Japan, the rise in businessactivity during the second quarterappears to have been slower than earlierin the year or in 1963. In WesternEurope and Japan this change was theresult of various measures curtailingbusiness liquidity in order to dampeninflationary pressures and to preventdeteriorations in the balance of pay-ments. The changes in foreign businessactivity do not have to be interpretedas a major cyclical change, however, butrather as attempts to avoid distortionsin continuing economic expansions.

The combination of these domesticand foreign business developments, ascould be expected on the basis of pastexperience, had a dampening effect onU.S. exports and stimulated imports.At least in the early stages of suchdevelopmentsas long as investmentopportunities abroad are not seriouslyaffected by a decline in the utilizationof foreign productive capacity and ininvestment incomesthey also couldbe expected to stimulate capital out-flows, as foreign demand for capital isdiverted from internal to foreign sources.

Merchandise exports

The $70 million decline during theApril-June period in merchandise ex-ports after seasonal adjustment inter-rupted a continuous quarter-by-quarterrise which had begun early in 1963.The decline, however, was due mainlyto a temporary dip in exports duringJune. Exports moved up in July by amargin wide enough to offset the Junedip. Averaging the June and Julyfigures, the monthly trend in exportshas been almost flat since December1963. Exports financed by Govern-

ment grants and capital outflows in-creased during the second quarter byabout $100 million.

Major developments in exports dur-ing the second quarter included (1) areduction in shipments of agricultural

Table 1.Analysis of U.S. Balance of Payments, Seasonally Adjusted, Excluding MilitaryGrant Aid

[Millions of dollars]

Transactions other than changes in official monetary assetsand in liquid liabilities (including nonmarketablemedium- term convertible Government securities)

I. U.S. PAYMENTS (DEBITS) RECORDED1. Imports of goods and services2. Merchandise.3. Military expenditures4. Other services5. Remittances and pensions6. Government grants and capital outflows7. (Transactions involving no direct dollar outflowsfrom the United States)8. (Dollar payments to foreign countries and inter-

national institutions)9. U.S. private capital

10. Direct investments _ . _ _11 Long-term portfolio12. Short-term

II. U.S. RECEIPTS (CREDITS) RECORDED1. Exports of goods and services2 Merchandise3. (Financedby Government grants and capital) ...4. Military sales.. - _ _ - _ -5. Income on investments, private6. Income on investments, Government _7. Other services... .8. Repayments on U.S. Government loans, scheduled.9. Repayments and selloffs, nonscheduled

10. Foreign private capital other than liquid funds11 Government liabilities

SELECTED BALANCES (NET CREDITS + ,DEBITS -)

A. Regular types of transactions, seasonally adjusted:1. Merchandise trade, excluding military _ _ _ _2 Military sales and expenditures3 Incomes on investments _4 . Other services _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _5 Goods and services6. (Excluding exports of goods and services financed

by Government grants and capital outflows)7 Remittances and pensions- _8. Government grants and capital outflows, less

changes in associated liabilities, less scheduledloan repayments _ _ . _ _

Domestic and foreign private capital:9 Direct and long-term portfolio _

10. Short-term ._ _ _11. Miscellaneous Government non-liquid liabilities.-.12. Errors and unrecorded transactions.. _ _13. Balance on regular types of transactions (seasonally

adjusted) _ - _ _14 Less' Net seasonal adjustments15. Balance on regular types of transactions before

adjustmentB. Special Government transactions (not seasonally ad-justed.

1 Non-scheduled receipts on Government loans2 Advances on military exports3. Sales of non-marketable, medium-term, non-con-

vertible securities4 Dollar securities l5 Foreign currency securities6. Sales of non-marketable, medium-term, convertible

securities7 Dollar securities8 Foreign currency securities

C.I. Balance A+B excluding net receipts from sales ofnonmarketable, medium-term, convertible Govern-ment securities (including seasonal adjustment ofitems in A) _ _

la. Excluding seasonal adjustment (equals line 52,table 3 ) _ _ _ _ _ _ _

2. Balance A+B including net receipts from sales ofnon-marketable, medium-term, convertible Gov-ernment securities (including seasonal adjust-ment of items in A)

2a. Excluding seasonal adjustment (equals line 52a,table 3) _ . _ _

D. Increase in short-term official and banking liabilitiesand in foreign holdings of marketable U.S. Govern-ment bonds and notes (decrease)

1. Foreign holders other than official (lines II-2, 3, 4;table 6)

2 Foreign official holders (line II-l table 6)E. Decrease in U.S. monetary reserve assets (increase ) _ _ _

1 IMF gold tranche position2 Convertible currencies3 Gold

Calendar year1962

33,48625, 02116, 1343,0445,843

7384,2933,2201,0733,4341,6541,227

55332,39430, 08420, 5762,863

6563,850

4714,531

599681166864

4,442-2, 388

3,326-3175,0632,155-738

-3, 547-2, 609

-659-4

-1,111

-3, 605

-3, 605

681470

251

251

-2,203

-2, 203

-2,203

-2, 203

670

213457

1,533626

17890

1963

35,99026, 33516, 9962,8976,442

8264,522

3,635887

4,3071,8881,685

73433,68532, 02021, 9892,720

6593,969

4984,905

643326310386

4,993-2, 238

3,273-3435,6852,347-826

-3, 785-3, 244

-7531

-339

-3,261

-3,261

326334

-4331

-74702150552

-2, 644-2, 644

-1,942-1,942

1,56459497037830

-113461

1963'

i | ii

8,7246,3274,037

7471,543

2091,060

809251

1,128618546

-367,7807,5354,990

595181

1,036123

1,20514125

-24103

953-566

884-63

1,208

462-209

-899

-1, 1597

(*)-118

-1,170-357

-813

2520

6358

5

350125225

-1,062-705

-712

-355

323

397-74

32-46-33111

9,7136,5314,212

7311,588

2091,3361,081

2551,637

477598562

8,4297,9775,472

827206969124

1,20615634

266-4

1,260-525

814-1031,446

441-209

-1,170

-876-495

1-11

-1,314-102

-1,212

34-5

-1019

-29

152

152

-1,295-1, 193

-1,143-1,041

917144773124

26

116

III

8,4826,7334,368

7111,654

2061,009

815194534235303-4

8,5968,0375,610

627117963125

1,222183241113

22

1,242-594

780-1241,304

543-206

-791

-442212

-267

-379441

-820

24180

-95-45-50175

150

-153-594

22

-419

19247

14522759

-28196

IV

9,0716,7444,379

7081,657

2021,117

930187

1.003558238212

8,8808,4715,917

671155

1,001126

1,27216326

-45265

1,538-553

795-53

1,727

901-202

-925

-767-286

-257

-39818

-416

26239

-1 1

25

25

-134

-152

-109

-127

132

6126-515

-5838

1964

I "

9,2196,7454,366

7171,662

197923

776147

1,354517227610

9,3268,9976,112

632210

1,227128

1,320164522291

1,746-5071,040-27

2,252

1,496-197

-768

-731-601

4-192

-233-302

69

52151

-55-5

-50

-85

217

-85

217

-166

233-399-51131

-22846

UP

9,7427,0094,576

7311,702

2081,130

929

2011,395

513261621

9,0408,7986,042

733142

1,190129

1,29515533

103-49

1,466-5891,005-93

1,789

911-208

-940

-696-596

-31

-682-109

-573

33-76

-8-8

(*)122

~~~~~m

-733

-624

-611

-502

199

114' 85303118258

-73

r Revised. * Preliminary. * Less than $500.000.1. Includes certificates sold abroad by Export-Import Bank.

741-612 O - 64 - 2Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

10 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS September 1964

products from the record rate of theJanuary-March period, and (2) atapering off of the rise in exports ofnonagricultural goods.

About $60 million of the $100 millionseasonally adjusted decrease in agricul-tural products during the secondquarter was due to the decline in specialgrain shipments to the Soviet Bloc asdeliveries under existing contracts withthe Soviet Union were virtually com-pleted in May. Excluding the ex-traordinary sales to the Soviet Bloc,agricultural exports during the secondquarter were at a seasonally adjustedannual rate of $5.9 billion. In view of

the substantial increases anticipated inforeign crops which compete with U.S.exports, it is somewhat questionablethat this rate can be sustained duringthe remainder of the year.

The gain in exports of nonagriculturalproducts during the April-June periodwas only a very minor one, especiallywhen compared to the substantial in-creases occurring in the two precedingquarters. Although exports to Mexico,Venezuela, the Philippines, Australia,the Union of South Africa, and someaid-recipient co an tries such as Indiaand Pakistan, moved significantly high-er, sales to the major industrial

U.S. Agricultural Exports,1 by Quarters[Millions of dollars]

Table 2.U.S. Balance of Payments by Major Components,1 Seasonally Adjusted[Millions of dollars]

Goods and Services, Government Assistance and Long-TermCapital Accounts 2

A. 1. Nonmilitary merchandise exports- _ _2. Less: Those financed by Government grants and

capitaL3. Merchandise exports, other than those financed by

Government grants and capital __4. Nonmilitary merchandise imports _ ._5. Balance on trade excluding exports financed by Govern-

ment grants and capital - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ . .6. Nonmilitary service exports. _ _ . - _ -7. Less: Those financed by Government grants and

capital -8. Service exports other than those financed by Govern-

ment grants and capital9. Nonmilitary service imports ._ _ _ _ . _ _

10. Balance on services other than those rendered underGovernment grants and capital

11 BalanceB. Other major transactions:

1 Military expenditures2. Military cash receipts3. Government grants and capital-dollar payments to

foreign countries and international institutions4. Repayments on U.S. Government loans excluding

fundings by new loans and repayments on militarycredits

5. U.S. direct and long-term portfolio investments abroad,6. Foreign direct and long-term portfolio investments in

the United States7. Remittances and pensions. _8. Sales of nonmarketable, medium-term, nonconvertible

securities 3 _ ._ - _ .9. Miscellaneous Government nonliquid liabilities

10. BalanceC. Balance on Goods and Services, Government

Assistance and Long-Term Capital AccountsD. Recorded U.S. private short-term capital outflow

less foreign short-term credits to the United States(excluding foreign liquid dollar holdings) .__E. Unrecorded transactions -F. Sales of nonmarketable, medium-term, convertible

Government securitiesG. Balance C+D+E . _H. Balance C-f-D+E+FMemorandum item: Reconciliation of "Military cash re-

ceipts" (line B-2) with Table l.n Lbs.

- FIBERS, MILL CONSUMPTIONTotal ^

:>%,,,, ^^^^^^^^y*Natural _

September 1964 SUEVEY OF CUREENT BUSINESS 23

as compared with about 10 percent forthe older items.

Practically all of the products withinthe moderately-growing group are wellestablished, and they represent a highproportion of U.S. industrial output.

For a relatively large number ofproducts, a reduction in output isrevealed, despite the substantial ex-pansion in total production since theearly postwar period. Most of theproducts in the declining group are stillbeing produced in large volume, andfor some the decreases in output werefrom abnormally high production levelsin 1948. This is particularly true ofitems where output was earlier dis-continued or sharply curtailed becauseof conversion to war productionsuchas refrigerators, washing machines,men's suits and overcoats, and sometypes of farm machinery. But thedevelopment of substitutes has alsoadversely affected production of manyproducts such as wool, coal, soap, andbutter, to mention a few.

The growth of supplies from foreignsources has affected domestic output forsome products. Thus, although domes-tic consumption of iron ore has increasedsubstantially, the importation of largequantities of this raw material is as-sociated with a declining trend indomestic iron ore output.Impact of new products on estab-

lished linesMost "new" products are substitutes

for older, established lines. The rapidgrowth of output of many of the prod-Table 2. Distribution of Average Annual

Growth Rates for 339 Products, 1948-57Compared with 1957-63

Fast:7.5 percent and

over

Moderate:3.5 to 7.4 percent-0 to 3.4 percent. ..

Declining

Total

Percent of total

1948-57

Num-berof

prod-ucts

81

7197

90

339

Per-cent

oftotal

24

2129

26

100

100

1957-63

Fast

7.5per-centandover

Moderate

3.5to7.4

per-cent

0to3.4per-cent

De-clin-ing

Number of products

35

93

3

50

15

26

2825

12

91

27

9

2347

21

100

29

11

1122

54

98

29

ucts introduced into the market in thepast two decades or so has frequentlybeen accompanied by a decline inproducts that have been on the marketfor a long time. The chart on page 22provides some examples of thesecontrasting trends.

The net expansion of the new andold products together is frequentlysmall. For the six combinations shownin the chart, average annual growthrates ranged from 0.8 percent forfibers (0.9 for natural fibers and 5.6percent for synthetics) to 3.4 percentfor rubber (2.1 percent for naturalrubber and 7.5 percent for syntheticrubber). It is important to keepin mind that these combined ratesare unweighted. When average unitvalues of old and new products arewidely different (as with manual andelectric typewriters, for example), thecombined output change computed withunit value weights may show a markeddeparture from the unweighted change.Rates have varied over time

Within the 15-year span from 1948to 1963 growth rates of individualcommodities and services have, for anumber of reasons, varied considerably.The decline in the growth of realGNP, from an average of 3.8 percentper year from 1948 to 1957 to 3.2percent from 1957 to 1963, was re-flected in a general lowering of ratesfor individual products. Moreover,final demand patterns shifted, causingshifts in the production of final productsand materials used in their manufac-ture. Growth of many new productsthat had found very wide acceptancein the earlier years diminished. Someof these shifts are summarized intable 2, which provides a cross-tabu-lation of growth rates for 339 itemsfor the period 1948-57 and for 1957-63.

The proportion of items classifiedas fast growing drops from 24 percentin the 1948-57 period to 15 percentin the period from 1957 to 1963.The group showing declines, whichwas 26 percent in the early period,was 29 percent in the later period.Although it is not shown in the table,55 percent of the 339 items grewmore slowly or declined more rapidlyfrom 1957 to 1963 than in the post-war and Korean periods.

Of the 81 items classified as fastgrowing in the 1948-57 period, only 35remained in this group in the morerecent period, and of this number, only12 exceeded earlier output rates.Among the latter were oxygen, helium,toluene, formaldehyde, plastic and resinmaterials, electric blankets, blenders,and air freight transportation. Therewere 46 items earlier classified as fastgrowing, based on 1948-57 change,that do not appear in this category onthe basis of 1957-63 performance. Ofthese, 35 had lower positive rates and11 products had negative rates. Il-lustrations of these shifts are given inthe chart on page 21.

On the other hand, of the 90 itemsshowing 1948-57 declines, only 54 con-tinued to show negative rates for thelater period. The remainder in thiscategory had positive growth ratesfrom 1957 to 1963, with a few shiftingto the fast-growing group.

Acceleration in rates since 1960

Because the national growth rate hasshown an acceleration since 1960, itis of some interest to divide the 6-yearspan from 1957 to 1963 into two sub-periods: 1957-60 and 1960-63. A 3-year span, of course, is very short forgrowth rate calculations. Moreover,under these circumstances the use of1960 as a dividing point is not entirelysatisfactory, since the entire secondhalf of 1960 was a period of decliningoutput, and some cyclical elements areundoubtedly present in the comparisons

Table 3Distribution of Average AnnualGrowth Rates for 339 Products, 1957-60Compared With 1960-63

Fast:75 percent and

over

Moderate:3.5 to 7.4 percent.0 to 3.4 percent. --

Declining _ _ -

Total

Percent of total

1957-60

Num-berof

prod-ucts

54

7289

124

339

Per-cent

oftotal

16

2126

37

100

100

1960-63

Fast

7.5per-centandover

Moderate

3.5to7.4

per-cent

0 to3.4per-cent

De-clin-ing

Number of products

31

1012

17

70

21

13

3725

25

100

29

4

2235

37

98

29

6

317

45

71

21

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24 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS September 1964

Table A.Production of Selected Products and Services, 1948, and 1960-63, and Average Annual Rates of Growth for Specified Time Periodsl

Product or service Unit of measureProduction

1948 1960 1961 1962 1963

Average annual rates of growth

1948-63 1948-53 1953-57 1957-60 1960-63 1948-57 1957-63

Fast growing Increases at an average annual rate of 7^ percent or more, 1948-63

Titanium sponge. _ _ - - _.PolyethyleneFrozen fruit juices, concentrateHelium _.ArgonFrozen foods, prepared _ _ _ _Air conditioners, roomTextile glass fiber, productionAntibiotics for human consumptionNoncellulosic fibers, productionDryers - --Frozen meatsAirconditioning systems, totalIcemaking nivachines.- _ _ _ _ _ _Frozen poultryRubber or latex core mattressesCoffee makers, automatic... _ _ _ _ .Lawn mowers, powerStyrene plastics and resins . _ _DDTPolyvinyls resins, plasticsPenicillin salts..Blankets electricOxygen, high purityTelevision sets, black and white _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _MagnesiumAir revenue passenger-miles flown _

XylenePicture tubes, salesPhosphoric acid. _ _ _ _ _ _Adding machines, electric and nonelectricDetergents, syntheticA i r ton -miles f l o w n . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Disposals, foodPlastics and resin materials, totalPlasticizers _ _Helicopters, nonmilitaryFrozen foods, totalGas-fired boilers -. _ _Petroleum cokeVitaminsDouglas fir (softwood plywood)Floor polishersTolueneAmmonia, synthetic anhydrousPerchloroethyleneShavers _ _. _Transparent film for packagingBlenders . _Effervescent wines _Liquified petroleum gasesFormaldehyde .Ethylene glycol .Dishwashers, motor-drivenNitric acidAluminum primary ingotsFrozen vegetables except potatoesBenzene chemical and motor gradeUrea and melamine resinsButadieneSkirtsPentaerythritol _ _Hydrogen _ _ _ __ _ _ _ .Rubber synthetic, all typesChlorine gas ..Gasoline engines, except outboard, automobile,

and aircraft.Phthalic anhydridePhenol synthetic and by productsElectric power totalMotor ton-miles truck transportation

Tons _ _Millions of pounds

doMillions of cubic feet.,

doMillions of poundsThousandsMillions of poundsThousands of pounds-Millions of poundsThousandsMillions of poundsThousandsUnitsMillions of poundsThousands

dodo

Millions of poundsdodo

Thousands of pounds-ThousandsBillions of cubic feet. _ThousandsThous. of short tons__Millions of passenger

miles.Millions of gallonsThousandsThousands of short tons.ThousandsMillions of poundsMillions of ton-miles. .ThousandsMillions of pounds

._ doUnitsMillions of poundsThousands-Thousands of short tons .Thousands of pounds-Millions of square feetThousandsMillions of gallonsThousands of short tons _Millions of poundsThousands-Millions of poundsThousandsThous. of wine gallons..Millions of barrelsMillions of poundsThousands of pounds..ThousandsThous. of short tons

doMillions of poundsMillions of gallonsMillions of poundsMillions of gallonsMillionsMillions of poundsBillions of cubic feet.Thous. of long tonsThous. of short tons...Thousands _

Millions of poundsdo

Billions of KWHBillions of tons and mi.

101924513040749

24366922538

5,900150>>3460039716520

218162675

16975

106,000

611,309

432&343

636223175

1,48514871

1,34731

2,8992,6101,871&185

841,375

681,650

205215

1,14067

617367225

1,133623446184149661352128

4881,640

* 2, 140

159297337116

5,3111,3371,033

642570810

1,580177

2,969677

1,260350350

55, 5001,267

6084,6953,8001,062

1641,203

8593,335

585,708

4033, 958

2829,0142,087

3483,646

778760

6,143602217

6,437142

12, 00211,0637,8161,024

2744,818

2095,950

706455

4,019230

1,8721,297

5553,3152,0141,408

457399

1,883100

6465

1,4364,6376,022

401774842298

6,7271,6061,055

727662905

1,500149

3,311751

1,236330366

61, 0001,732

4234,6003,5001,145

1711,2601,1024,300

796,178

4134, 599

2579,3072,254

3453,774

895800

6,709630291

7,163155

15, 06712, 5608,5191,029

2605,207

2256,500

786515

4,114238

1,7521,183

6203,3801,9041,537

545440

1,911976266

1,4044,6015,968

374779879313

6,7302,0161,321

713817960

1,580190

3,965970

1,420340468

71, 7001,626

4525,6004,0001,274

1671,5661,2894,725

1046,471

6937, 491

3549,0702,447

3094,0001,182

8907,942

781306

7,524162

15, 74512, 3559,3611,014

3615,810

3206,700

850780

4,414256

2,3981,434

7203,3702,1181,503

546489

2,145946276

1,5745,1437,125

427826943332

7,4002,270(*)2,2301,009

a 1, 0651,945 192

4, 180 1, 156

1,590360

582(*)1,733

4506,5003,9001,490

1791,7601,0175,500

1297,130

7643, 000

4228,9552,901(*)' 4, 120

1,4101,0908,959"830

411 7, 051

17716, 13514, 8749,9231,045

4196,646

326(*)

910920

4,807274

2,5521,453

8804,1972,313

1,451651520

2,301119

7095

1,6085,448(*)

474896

1,008346

55.337.533.128.626.425.524.422.722.121.020.920.520.019.517.717.517.216.516.015.715.315.015.014.814.214.114.0

13.813.713.513.413.413.113.012.812.612.412.412.312.112.011. 811.411.311.111.010.510.410.210.19.99.99.69.59.19.19.18.88.78.78.58.48.48.38.38.37.67.67.67.6

195.248.093.425.442.349.669.840.946.330.251.646.727.336.725.756.443.826.325.233.218.836.07.09.3

49.256.223.813.149.617.340.127.213.113.213.314.69.2

21.118.48.3

12.314.48.1

13.210.717.616.213.67.64.6

12.812.611.2

-4.49.3

15.018.38.1

11.511.815.921.7

-2.111.711.35.77.45.28.8

13.3

66.651.39.3

16.622.725.711.022.19.8

20.215.123.914.32.17.63.74.3

26.811.210.214.5

-2.023.46.8

-3.0-3.412.7

3.0-.313.1

-1.211.38.5

14.111.810.829.69.69.9

11.616.510.419.26.3

13.06.5

17.411.010.116.88.84.8

17.821.312.77.12.75.18.07.65.3.4

12.57.29.0

13.311.99.88.64.0

-32.523.63.7

30.012.82.6-.116.87.89.5-.9

-4.417.322.026.21.82.54.8

11.09.8

10.77.4

14.920.8

-3.7-21.0

6.5

30.52 4

io!o.9

3.910.811.412.310.8

-11.28.4

10.621.58.9

12.719.811.28.92.0

-3.66.2.0

14.810.511.52.6

12.55.36.97.1

11.24.66.93.83.9

16.88.75.56.94.0

11.75.65.5

11.719.113.151.421.09.67.22.8

12.119.28.1.9

18.513.711.0

-9.511.5

.912.73.0

13.55.8

18.130.67.7

24.08.2

14.4t 2

1L6-5.8

4.221.912.813.611.323.73.17.6

10.410.48.3.7

15.211.316.06.18.8

26.56.16.1

10.93.9

16.68.24.71.0

12.59.26.95.93.0

13.23.85.58.85.75.06.25.1

128.949.550.121.433.238.540.632.228.825.734.136.121.420.117.332.724.726.518.822.516.917.514.08.2

23.326. 218.7

8.524.915.421.819.911.013.612.712.917.815.814.59.7

14.112.612.410.111.712.516.812.58.79.8

11.09.1

14.16.3

10.811.411.16.89.99.9

11.011.74.29.6

10.38.79.47.28.79.1

-13.221.37.3

40.316.86.03.59.89.9

14.33.5

-1.717.918.618.4

-4.16.92.8

11.96.3

12.16.6

16.525.61.8

-1.17.3

22.2-1.310.8

-1.84.4

16.212.112.911.14.85.79.1

15.89.6

10.59.8

13.210.18.8.1

7.512.510.48.2

11.23.2

14.56.75.84.0

11.96.96.94.83.5

15.06.25.57.7

4.98.35.95.3

Moderately growing Increases at an average annual rate of 0 to 7.4 percent, 1948-63

Natural gas, marketed... _ _.Knit cloth for sale _ _. _Aviation gasolineAcetyleneMilling machinesBook publicationsFloor & wall tile, glazed and unglazedCoats separate, men'sAluminum mill productsSand and gravel _Merchant Ship construction deliveriesAcetylsaliyclic (aspirin)Acetic acidGarden tractorsCouinarone indene and petroleum polymers. _Potash deliverips (Ka0 content)Sodium hydroxide, liquid _. -Galvanized sheetsNewsprint productionMethanol, syntheticWoodpulp _Hydrochloric AcidPhosphate Rock table production __

Billions of cubic feet _ _Millions of poundsMillions of barrelsMillions of cubic feetThousandsNumber of editionsMillions of square feetThousandsMillions of poundsMillions of short tons..Thous. of gross tons___Thousands of pounds _Millions of poundsThousandsMillions of poundsThous of short tons

dododo

Millions of gallonsThous. of short tons...

doThous. of long tons

5,1486110

465,144

69,897

1024,8651,640

319164

11,016422185135

1,1202,3771,643

87G149

12, 872458

2,790

12, 771248114

12, 14314

15, 012233

10, 2373,049

710404

23, 553765408265

2, 1704,9723,0572,004

29625, 316

9705,443

13, 254281118

11,61813

18, 060228

9,7113,345

752369

22, 668784370281

2,0794,9143,3302,054

30726, 523

9115,804

13, 877298122

13, 23915

21, 904253

11. 3003, 811

111385

27, 194986424348

2,3595,4433,5332,098

33627, 9081, 0526,004

14, 515(*)124

13, 770(*)

25, 784266

12, 6534,264

831422

28, 4001,047"418

3442,7235,6973,9222,086

35229, 4351,047(*)

7.26.96.86.86.86.66.66.66.66.66.56.56.26.16.16.16.06.06.05.95.75.75.6

10.36.9

14.45.6

24.64 05.69.16.96.6

28.34.53.45.98.99.06.56.94.12.46.4

11.17.5

6.24.35.6

11.8-1.4

2.211.54.74.09.5

13.47.12.2

-7.88.42.97.41.1

13.98.15.65.22.2

6.18.5.6

4.8-6.3

4.54.04.34.44.08.19.3

12.031.8-2.5

4.04.78.53.78.95.1.8

7.7

4.49.62.84.33.5

19.84.57.3

11.85.41.56.3

11.0.8

7.67.94.68.71.35.95.22.65.0

8.45.8

10.48.3

12.33.28.27.15.67.97.75.62.9-.48.76.26.94.38.34.96.08.45.1

5.29.01.74.6

-2.511.94.35.88.14.74.77.8

11.515.32.45.94.78.62.57.45.11.76.6

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

September 1964 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 25Table A.Production of Selected Products and Services, 1948, and 1960-63, and Average Annual Rates of Growth for Specified

Time Periods lContinued

Product or service Unit of measureProduction

1948 1960 1961 1962 1963

Average annual rates of growth

1948-63 1948-53 1953-57 1957-60 1960-63 1948-57 1957-63

Moderately growingIncreases at an average annual rate of 0 to 7.4 percent 1948-63Continued

PotashMarketable ProductionMixers, food, std. and portableMan-made fibers, totalSpecial industrial and absorbent paperPulp wood consumptionAsphaltEthyl alcoholSanitary and tissue paperWaists, blouses, and shirtsPhonographs including radio and phonograph

combinations.Shipping containersFluorescent lamps.. - .. .Aluminum castings_ - ...Carbon dioxide.. ._Trucks, electric, rider-type.Oil pipeline transportationDistillate fuel oilPassenger cars.Heating pad..Oleomargarine.Paper-hoard, including \\et machine boardTrailers truck ..Industrial explosives ..Frozen f ru i t sClosures, commercialFine piperDresses, all si/e- Girls , children's, infants'Bag piperGla^s containers\\ arm air furn icesPassenger e ir * iresLamps, hulbs, tnd tubessaltSulphuric acid.BeefPaper md bo ird, total. ..F t h j l a ce t a t if oncrete reinforcing bars.Motor tuel excluding aviation( ement, port landF ms, ill KpesW i t < r hea'tirs, gas .Tungsten, mine shipments..Gvpsur i \\ dlboard, 'iitluding lathI rmtmg paperSuit i druizs_Chipping sack paper.. .\ml-mYr ul. r coaches, mobile home type.Kubln r consumption, nat. and sjn., total.Rei t i \mg tubes.v\ iUr t-losi tsDungarees and \vaistbarul overalls, men'sInsulating board md hardboardAcetic anhvdride.Sup< r phosphate._P < rt ili/ers, commercial..A m r t f t , civilian, airframe weight _( ah mm orbide, commercial.Stei i sheets and strip.Frt * 71 rs, farm arid homeCarbon black. .Crude runs to stills. . . _ . _ _ . . . ... .La\ itones, total.. . .. ... -Flush tanks , vitreous china _ _ ...->ug t r , K lined . . .. ..Hiesel md semuliestl engines,.( H \ ( erme, ref ined.DisUih (l spirits consumption __ .. _ .F ibr.c i fed s t ruc tu r d b t e e l _ . .. _Shirts, dress, sport, business utility _ .Cans, tmplate ^expressed in terms of metal con-

sumed).Canned fruitsCinned \egetables (commercial pack). . .Cheese .. .. .Newsprint consumption. __ . .. ..Cilcmed gypsum.. ...Work pants _ ... . . .....Still wines, production __ . __ . __ . .\Va\petroleum _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . . _ - _ .Copper, mine _ . _ _ _ _ _. ...Copper, r i fmiry (primary) ... . . . ...Cist iron pressure pipe md fittings ... .Common clay, sold or used by producers _ ..Cig irettes, production __ _ _Meats, tot i l . . . _ .Oil burners, residential .Coarse paper _ ... ... . ._ __ _ ...If aid \\ood dooisCast 11011 soil pipe and f i t t ingsP u n t , \anush, md lacquerSodium biuomaU md chromate("rude [ ) ( i t ro l t u rn( o n s t r u c t i o n paper and board .k< lost neMi l l \\ im s, \\ i t h d i m ilsDoi'u stu \ \a t ( r svstems .( oi ts , pi l ls ' , children's & mfints '

Thous. of short tons..Thousands.Millions of pounds, _.Thous. of short tons..Thousands of cords__Millions of barrels.._Millions of gallonsThous. of short tons..Millions _ .Thousan dsMillions of square feet. |Millions.._ |Million pounds _ _ jThousand short tons _|I nits iBillions of ton-milesMillion barrelsThousands '

do .Million pounds jThousand short tons iThousands iMillion pounds ,

diMillions .Thousand short tonsMillionsThousand short tons iMi l l ion grossThmsand. |Millions |

.do ]Thousand short tonsMillion ])ounds_ ,1 hous ot short ton15 iMillions of pounds j1 hous of -,[ ort tons iMillions of barrels .

do IThousands.. i

d(j . IFhous. of poundsMillions of squnn. feet i1 hous of short tons |Thousands of pounds 'Thous of short ton-* . iMillions of pounds . IThousands1 hous of long tonsMillions . !Thousands.Thousands ot dozens iThous of short tons

iMillions of pounds jrl hous of short tons |Millions dt poundsPhoiib of short toj isr[ hous-mds ,1 hous of short tons .Millions of barn Is1 hou-> iiuis

doi hous oi si ort tons .Fhoubdii'l1.\1 illions of poundsMillions of \vine *i Js! hous of -hort tons _Thousands of dozens

rl hous ot short tonsMillions of pounds __ _ _ do

. ._ do. ..rhoiib of short tons.

.... do . .Thousands of dozensM illions of \\ me gals _Thousands of barrelsThous. of short tons.... . do .

. do. . . ..... doBillionsMillions of poundsThousands.rl hous of short tonsThousandsI"hous of short tonsMillions ol g illonsThous. of short tons.Millions of bands'[ hous of short tonsMil l ion* or b t i n IsM illions of \\ine colsi liousinds .

do

1.5-.27.36.04.44.54.71.51.6

4.7b 64 0\ 4b 01.52 3

J, >

i 4

i s

4 a4 ^i

3 1-4 h 25 \5.74.0i *

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26 SUKVEY OF CUREENT BUSINESS September 1964Table A.Production of Selected Products and Services, 1948, and 1960-63, and Average Annual Rates of Growth for Specified

Time Periods 1Continued

Product or service Unit of measureProduction

1948 1960 1961 1962 1963

Average annual rates of growth

1948-631

1948-53 1953-57 1957-60 1980-63 1948-57 1957-63

Moderately growing Increases at an average annual rate of 0 to 7.4 percent 1948-63 Continued

Exterior frames _ _ _ _ _Nickel consumption _ _.Bathtubs, totalInnerspring mattresses, other than for cribs _..Bed springs, totalSlab zinc, consumptionAsphalt shingles.- _ _ . _ _Bauxite, shipments from mines and processing

plants to consumers.Sodium sulfates. _ _ __ __ _ __Kitchen sinks, totalBrick, common and faceGlass, sheet (window)- _ ._ __ _ _Ice creamAutomotive replacement batteriesVacuum cleanersFolding paper boxesMill consumption of rayon and acetateHosiery, shipments, total _ __ __ _ -Pork, excluding lardIrons - _ _ _ _Confectionery salesShoes and slippersLubricantsSteel ingots and steel for castingsClay sewer pipe and fittings vitrifiedDrinking fountainsFrozen seafoodBarbiturates __Cigars productionSteel line pipe _ _Sulphur native (Frasch) and recoveredShower stallsPig iron _ _ _ _ -Rayon and acetate, productionCopper, consumption _ _.Truck and bus tiresDresses, women's . _ _ __ _Ranges electric including built-inFinished steel products, totalFacing tile, glazed and unglazed (hollow)Fermented malt liquor (beer)Slab zinc, primaryWaste paper consumption __BicyclesMill consumption of all fibers - -- - -Radios including automobileTypewriters standard, including portablesCalculating machines, electric and nonelectricClocksToasters automaticTrucks and busesLardReclaimed rubber, productionDyesPipe and tubing - -Sheep and lamb skins - _Sodium silicateSodium carbonate (soda ash) - _ ._ _ _ _Lamb and muttonFloor and wall furnacesMalleable iron castingsOak flooringPick-up hay balersLead, consumption, primary and secondary

Thous.__Thous. of short tons...Thousands

_. do _ .. . .do

Thous. of short tons...Thousands of squares -Thous. of long tonsThous. of short tons..ThousandsMil. of standard brick.Thous. of boxes 50 sq ft.Millions of poundsThousands _ _ _

do1947-49100Millions of poundsMillions of doz pairs ._Millions of poundsThousands. - _ __Millions of poundsMillions of pairs . _Thousands of barrelsMillions of short tons.Thous. of short tonsThousandsMillions of pounds.Thousands of pounds.MillionsThous. of short tons...Thous. of long tonsThousandsThous. of short tons...Millions of poundsThous. of short tons...ThousandsMillionsThousandsThous. of short tons...Millions of brick.. -Thousands of barrels. _Thous. of short tons...

_. doThousandsMillions of poundsThousands

dododododo

Millions of poundsThous. of long tons...Millions of poundsThous. of short tons...Thousands of skinsThous. of short tons...

doMillions of poundsThousandsThous. of short tons...Millions of board feet-.ThousandsThous. of short tons...

4,31794

1,948b 6, 226

b 5, 605818

30, 0261,329

9192,7115,707

6 18, 947

2,72125, 0753,361

991,149

14410, 0557,3602,673

4805189

1,43382

292680

5,7341,8884,914

14860, 055

1,1241,214

14, 576227

1,60065, 973

32288, 125

7887, 5852,7506,409

16, 5001,173

1239,9953,6501,3762,321

267201

6,88233, 492

4864,575

74753094183248

1,134

5,345108

2,1118,6927,375

87838, 205

1,654

1,0732,1316,502

20, 7383,348

26,3293,313

1241,055

15111,6056,4103.004

6005999

1,854114329852

6,9172,6905,710

19666, 481

1,0291,148

14, 483254

1,49571, 149

40793, 415

8009,0322,5936,492

17, 1271,180

1228,3003,3451,1942,563

293156

7,05230, 478

4974,558

768475821879

491,021

6,053118

2,0738,2157,378

93140, 3371,123

1,1352,7336,428

20, 8363,346

28, 3113,283

1241,127

16811,4127,4153,112

5935998

1,749109320700

6,6132,5446,244

18464, 631

1,0951,237

13, 346252

1,53066, 126

42495, 030

8479,0182,5796,571

17, 3741,118

1198,9553,9251,1342,517

264167

7,06731, 891

5254,516

83244772478645

1,027

5,986119

2,3428,8088,0181,032

41,4161,534

1,2313,0976,913

23, 2633,368

30, 4863,712

1241,264

17211,8418,4103,175

5986198

1,71496

344817

6,7582,4735,884

18265, 722

1,2721,352

15, 758251

1,67570, 552

41396, 832

8799,0752,9547,055

19, 1621,294

1339,8283,7951,2402,480

281189

7,10330, 321

5534,607

80948986878043

1,110

5,835125

2,6008,4737,6041,081

39, 521a 1, 545

1,2083,4677,398

24, 9683,461

31, 8404,246

1261,440

1800 12, 439

9,0003,280

59163

1091,750

100352

"9236,9342,2605,881

17871, 908

1,3491,423

16, 890263

1,87075, 555

366100, 631

8998,7383,1187,269

18, 2811,296(*)

10, 7903, 9551,463

0 2, 473

281210

7.04334, 374

5024,682

77052693383248

1,136

2.01.91.91.91.91.91.81.8

1.81.71.71.71.61.61.61.61.51.51.41.41.41.41.41.41.31.31.31.31.31.21.21.21.21.21.11.01.01.0.9.9.9.9.9.8.8.7.7.5.5.5.4.4.3.3.2.2.2.2.2.1.1.0.0.0

3.32.4

-.22.04.33.81.15.92.6

-4.4.2

*

1.3-1.2-3.7

4.11.32.1.1.1.3

2.1.4

4.71.85.9

-1.2-1.4

.813.22.34.24.51.33.4.2

2.7-4.8

4.06.6.9

3.12.4

-6.2.2

-4.11.9

-3.4-5.3-5.0-2.6

.32.1

-3.87.5

-3.34.71.3-.5

.8

.62.8

10.21.2

1.03.6-.73.4-.9

-1.3.3.0

.0-2.8

*2'2

1.82.43.51.2

-1.0-2.1

1.0.8.4

3.01.5.2

1.03.33.44.5.1

4.72.23.11.1

-1.2-3.6-2.3-.32.2.1

-.2-.71.9

-1.3-1.0

3.66.15.52.47.3

-2.12.0

-1.9-3.7

2.5-2.5

.1-1.1-.8

-4.0-2.9-1.3-3.4-1.4

.5-4.0

4.12.71.9

-2.16.1

-2.2

.93.31.0

-.52.3.5

1.30

-3'. 6.9

3.6-5.6

2.9.1

2.2-4.1

4.4-2.8

1.64.15.1

-13.9-1.6-1.6-5.3-3.3-2.5

2.7-.33.1

-3.8-2.6

1.5-6.7

2.110.91.33.5

-10.3-.5

-3.' 72.6.2

2.32.9

-13.46.0

-6.5-.72.8.4

-1.6-1.1

-10.33. 6

3.05.07.2

-.81.07.21.1

-2.3

4.017.64.46.41.16.58.6.5

10.96.02.1

12.03.0

52.03.2

-1.9-4.3

2.3-2.7

.1-5.6

1.0-3.2

2.79.47.45.31.27.72.0

-3.52.54.0

-1.16.33.82.23.24.49.15.77.0

-1.5-1.410.4

.04.1.3.9.1

3.54.4

-1.8-.73. 6

2.22.9

-.42.62.21.53.' 2

1.4-3.7

1.11.11.5.4

-.62.8.3.2.4.4.4

2.5.9

2.71.44.7.8

1.2A

9.' 32.23.73.0.1.2

-.91.3

-1.72.23.6.2

2.51.3

-4.0-.3-.73.8.1

-1.9.3

-2.41.0.3

-3.75.2

-3.02.5.2

-.61.3

-1.01.03.9.0

1.7.4

5.6.9

1.42.43.6

-2.3

2.410.22.72.91.73.54.9-.13.43.42.92.82.9-.22.1-.51.2

-3.51.93.42.6

-9.9-.3

-2.4-1.4

2.92.34.0.5

5.4Q

-s'.i2.0

-1.5.5

8.62.62.9

-3.81.44.3.9

4.8-.6

.46.6

-7.05.1

-3.2.1

1.41.91.3

-1.5-5.6

.0

Showing declining trends, 1948-63

Railroad revenue freight ton-miles _Lead, refined, production (domesitic and foreign

ores) .Gray iron castingsWashing machines electric and gasCoats, trirnrnpid and nntrimmprl, woman'sCreamery, butterCrownsFlour wheatSilver, mine productionLumber, total ..Suits men'sGloves and mittens; all typesBus transportationCotton broad woven goods _ .Water heaters, electricRaw cotton consumption _ _Silk consumption ._Tin consumption, primary and secondaryRefrigerators, electricCast iron boilers (round and square)Steel castings __Steel barrels and drums, heavy typeCanned fruit juicesFine clay, sold or used by producers.. _ _ _ _ _Cattle hides and side kipZinc, mine__Work shirts, man'sAsphalt roll roofingRayon tire cord _ . _Wool consumption, carpet class ... ...Cooking stoves, gas domesticOpen sashBituminous coal _Tractor implement tires

Billion ton-milesThousand short tons.,

doThousandsThousandsMillion poundsMillion gross..Million barrelsThousands of fine oz. _Billions of board feet..ThousandsMillion pairMil. of pass, miles.... .Million linear yards. . .ThousandsMillion poundsThousand poundsThousand long tons...ThousandsMillion poundsThousand short tons..MillionsM illion pound.Thousand short tons...Thous. hides and skins.Thousand short tons..Thousands of dozensThousands of squares.Million pounds

do...Thousands

doMillions of short tons.Thousands

641407

13, 2074,196

25, 5741,504

333142

37, 66037

23, 412346

24, 0009,6401,0404,4647,400

914,766

2631,779

27, 0702,4589,930

26, 070630

4,64829, 913

251208

2,75011,820

6005,160

575382

11, 5943,364

23, 5441,435

280130

30, 76633

21,316323

19, 8969,366

7154,1916,900

813,475

1891,392

21,0552,1609,915

21, 969435

3,69621, 754

240165

1,8147,958

4163.235

566450

10, 8243,444

24, 2941,536

305133

34, 79432

18, 797314

19, 7039,168

7854,0826,700

783,480

1891,217

22, 0102,0848,689

22, 736464

3,62021, 469

213149

1,8308,814

4033.520

596378

11, 5533,795

24, 0291,579

309134

36, 79833

20, 218325

21, 2799,248

9004,1886,500

793,775(*)1,423

23, 3652,2068,070

22, 523505

3,63522, 959

208149

1,9639,022

4223.773

628398

12, 7634,029

24, 558 1, 453

316135

35,44435

21, 587a 330

22,0008,778

9504,0416,600

784,125

2221,504

23, 0632,0468,300

21, 653527

3,75923, 610

196161

2, 0788,927

4523,817

-.1-.1

-.2.3

-.3-.3-.3-.3-.4-.4-.5-.5-.6-.6-.6

n

-.8-1.0-1.0-1.1-1.1-1.1-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.4-1.6-1.6-1.7-1.8-1.9-1.9-2.0

-1.02.8.7

-3.1-1.2

1.3-.5

-4.3.0.1

-1.5-1.4

.01.1

-5.6.0

1.1-1.1-5.2-4.6

.6-2.7-4.8

.9-1.6-2.8

2.3-3.511.38.1

-4.6-.7

-5.3-6.2

.53.4

-2.01.4.6

-1.2-.51.7.8

-2.7-2.0

.8-3.3-1.7

.6-2.3

1.6-1.2-2.1-.4-.91.64.61.01.5

-.7-5.6-4.0-7.6-1.5-2.5-3.5

1.9-3.1

-2.6-10.6-2.9-3.9-1.5-2.2-4.2

2.1-7.5

.02.2-.4

-1.6-.6

-3.71.1

-6.0-.41.2

-2.7-7.6-5.7-2.1-2.8-4.9-6.5-3.6

.7-8.5

8.8-2.7-7.0-5.5-.8

3.01.4

3.36.21.4.1

4.11.34.81.7.4.7

3.2-2.1

9.9-1.3-1.5-1.3

5.95.52.63.1

-1.8-5.8-.56.6.6

2.8-6.2-.84.73.92.85.7

-.33.1

-.5-1.1-.4

.2-,5

-1.7.3

-1.2-1.8-.6

-1.5-.1

-2.9-1.0

1.3-1.2-3.8-2.7

.1-.8-.7

.9-.2

-1.9-1.3-3.7

2.5-5.3-3.6-2.0-2.2-4.8

.2-4.8

.11.0.0

-1.1-.11.7

-1.5.8

1.3.1.8

-1.42.9-.1

-3.7-.83.51.3

-2.6-1.4-2.0-4.3-2.7-.2

-1.51.7

-7.33.9.9

-1.7-1.4

2.4Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1964 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 27Table A.Production of Selected Products and Services, 1948, and 1960-63, and Average Annual Rates of Growth for Specified

Time Periods 1-Continued

Product or service Unit of measureProduction

1948 1960 1961 1962 1963

Average annual rates of growth

1948-63 1948-53 1953-57 1957-60 1960-63 1948-57 1957-63

Showing declining trends Continued

Wire and wire products _Coke, by-product arid beehiveOutboard motorsIron oreGold, mine productionCreosote oil _Manufactured tobaccoSuits, women'sVeal....Lead, mineOvercoats and topcoats, men'sCondensed and evaporated milkWhiskv, productionResidual fuel oilLathesWool consumption, apparel and carpetGas-fired direct heating equipmentWoolen and worsted woven goods .Calf and kid skinsMethanol, natural ...Milking machines. _Wool consumption, apparel classCarpets and rugs, wool typePonderosa Pine doorsRailroad Revenue passenger milesMaple, beach and birch flooring..Power sprayers and dustersFeature movies. __Local transit, passengers carriedRailroad freight carsSoap, naturalHeating stoves, domesticGoat and kid skinsWire nails and staplesAnthracite _ .. . _ _Insulated siding, all typesRails and accessoriesLocomotives, diesel-electric.Structural clay tilePump jacksCorn pickers, fieldCombines (harvester-threshers)Hand and windmill pumpsAsphalt sidingTractor moldboard plows .Railroad passenger carsRadiators and con vectors.. .Windmill towersCotton tirecord . . ...Black blasting powder

Thous. of short tons.. .do

ThousandsMillions of long tons. .Thousands of fine oz_ .Millions of gallonsMillions of pounds

Millions of poundsThous. of short tons...ThousandsMillions of poundsMillions of tax gallons-Millions of barrelsThousan d sMillions of poundsThousand5*Millions of linear yds..Thousands of skinsThousands of gallonsThousands..Millions of poundsMillions of sq ydsThousandsM 11 . of passenger-mi _ .. .Million^ of board feet .ThousandsNumberMillionsThousandsMillions of poundsThousandsThousands of skinsThousands of short fons.Millions of short tons..Thousands of squares..Millions of short tons.NumberThous. of short tons...Thousands. _ _

dododo

Thousands of squares-ThousandsNumberMillions of square feet-UnitsMillions of poundsThousands of pounds.

4, 30174,862

499101

2,010145245

14,9631,423

3906,1933,755

17146629

6932,C84

49810,4802,366

62485

904, 091

41, 20075

131366

17, 312115

3,1805, 227

37. 97086057

2, 5603,5172, 2541,271

427991

4573,280

30994660

19,115285

33, 200

2,97557, 229

46889

1,66793

1739,4191,108

2475, 2932, 666

149332

18411

1,211286

6,3322,162

2824654

1,94821, 300

3674

1547,521

571,2931, 856

18, 835320

191,1311, 266

376488

10273098

87294

23721

4, 10230

1, 537

3, 03551,711

34371

1,54888

1739,2711,045

2624, 6952, 631

146316

16412

1,099287

6, 3911,604

3026344

1,98820, 300

3752

1317,242

321,2311,749

14,865332

171,015

839256476

10212399

85476

20114

2, 72919

1,521

3,10951,910

36072

1,54091

1699,6761,015

2374,8112, 407

113296

18429

1,127310

5, 9811,195

2928043

1,98719, 800

3360

1477, 122

371,2301,884

14,213322

17926

1,029736423

9

2510579979

27812

2,43519

1,222

3,13854,236

362"74

1,42799

1689,941927

2513,948

"2,365105

(*)(*)

412"1,218

2845,5961,235