scatter workshop, brussels, november 9th 2004 kari lautso / lt consultants scatter sprawling cities...
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SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
SCATTERSPRAWLING CITIES AND TRANSPORT:
FROM EVALUATION TO RECOMMENDATIONS
Lic. Sc. Kari Lautso/LT Consultants:
The Helsinki case
SCATTER WORKSHOP
Brussels, November 9th, 2004
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Contents
1. Methodology: City sprawl assessment/sustainability assessment
2. Helsinki – background3. Examples of tested policies and
their effects on city sprawl and urban sustainability
4. Overall conclusions
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
1. Methodology: City sprawl assessment/sustainability assessment
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Two methods for describing urban sprawl:
• Urban sprawl variables
• Sustainability indicators and indeces
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Urban sprawl variablesOverall mobility• Average travel time (all modes) minutes/tripPublic transport• Modal share of public modes %• Passenger-km by public modes km/household/aRoad traffic• Private vehicle-km km/household/a• Greenhouse gases from transport eq.ton/household/a• Average road traffic speed km/hLand use• Inhabitants in urbanised zones #• Employees in urbanised zones #Accessibilities• Average home-work travel distance kilometres• Accessibility to city centre minutes/trip• Accessibility to services minutes/trip• Productivity gain from land use %
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Why sustainability evaluation?
• The phenomenon of city sprawl is illustrated and can be understood through the city sprawl variables.
• The aim of sustainability evaluation is to answer the following questions:– Is city sprawl sustainable or not?– Is one alternative to fight city sprawl better
than another one?
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
What is sustainability in urban planning context?
Institutional frameworkEnvironmental sustainability
Economic efficiency
Socialsustainability
sustainabilityComprehensive
For a city to be sustainable it needs to use resources in an efficient and equitable way within the carrying capacities of the environmental and social systems it is dependent on.
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Environmental indicators
Global climate changeGreenhouse gases from transport
Air pollution Acidifying gases from transport Volatile organic compounds from transport
Consumption of natural sources Consumption of mineral oil products, transportLand coverageNeed for additional new construction
Environmental quality Fragmentation of open spaceQuality of open space
Environmental Index
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Social indicators…Health
Exposure to particulate matter from transport in the living environment
Exposure to nitrogen dioxide from transport in the living environment
Exposure to traffic noise
Traffic deaths
Traffic injuries
Equity Justice of distribution of economic benefitsJustice of exposure to particulatesJustice of exposure to nitrogen dioxidesJustice of exposure to noiseSegregation
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
…Social indicators
Opportunities Housing standardVitality of city centreVitality of surrounding regionProductivity gain from land use
Accessibility Total time spent in trafficLevel of service of public transport and slow modesAccessibility to city centreAccessibility to servicesAccessibility to open space
Social Index
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Economic indicators
Transport investment costsTransport user benefitsTransport operator benefitsGovernment benefits from transportTransport investment costsTransport external accidents costsTransport external emissions costsTransport external greenhouse gasesTransport external noise costs
Economic index: total savings €/inhabitant (NPV)
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
TOOLS for calculating the indicator values ( from PROPOLIS)
Ecomic calculationsGIS
IllustrationLand use and transport models
0 20 40
kilom etres
0 5 10
kilom etres
Absolute changePP 214
5000 ...
2500 ... 5000500 ... 2500
-2500 ... -500-5000 ... -2500
... -5000
Relative changePP 214
5 ...2 ,5 ... 50,5 ... 2 ,5
-0 ,5 ... 0 ,5-2 ,5 ... -0 ,5-5 ... -2 ,5... -5
0 20 40
kilom etres
0 5 10
kilom etres
Absolute changeEM 214
5000 ...
2500 ... 5000500 ... 2500
-2500 ... -500-5000 ... -2500
... -5000
Relative change (%)EM 214
5 ...2,5 ... 50,5 ... 2 ,5
-0,5 ... 0 ,5-2,5 ... -0 ,5-5 ... -2 ,5... -5 Evaluation
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
The evaluation process
Weights of the themes
Weights of the indicators
Alternative scenarios
The environmental index
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
2. Helsinki – background
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Surrounding region• Rural• Urban
Metropolitan area• outer parts (suburbs)• inner parts• central parts• city centre
Land use superzones
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Intercity comparisons
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Projects included in the reference solution
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Population and densities in the base forecast
Polpulation and employment:
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
HelCentre
InnerHMA
OuterHMA
HMASuburbs
Oth Urban Rural
Hou
seho
lds
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
HelCentre
InnerHMA
OuterHMA
HMASuburbs
Oth Urban Rural
Em
ploy
ees
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA
HMASuburbs
Oth Urban Rural
Rel
. ch
ange
in H
ouse
hold
s/sq
-km
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA
HMASuburbs
Oth Urban Rural
Rel
. ch
ange
in E
mpl
oyee
s/sq
-km
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Relative densities vs 1990:
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
3. Examples of tested policies and their effects on city sprawl and urban
sustainability
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Increase speed of current rail services 25%?
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
In general (big/radial) rail enhancements contribute to sprawl…
113 H – Decrease current rail travel times 30%
-5000
0
5000
10000
Hou
seho
lds
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-10000
-5000
0
5000
Em
ploy
ees
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hou
seho
lds
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Em
ploy
ees
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
…like the reduction of public transport fares512 H – Decrease public transport fares by 20 %
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HMA
Outer H
MA
HMA Suburb
s
Oth U
rban
Rural
Hou
seho
lds
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5000
0
5000
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HMA
Outer H
MA
HMA Suburb
s
Oth U
rban
Rural
Em
ploy
ees
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HMA
Outer H
MA
HMA Suburb
s
Oth U
rban
Rural
Hou
seho
lds
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HMA
Outer H
MA
HMA S
uburbs
Oth U
rban
Rural
Em
ploy
ees
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
Relocation from HMA
From suburban areas towards centre and from rural areas to urban
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Planned Metropolitan Area Rail Investments…
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
…do not, however, seem to contribute to sprawl
-5000
0
5000
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HM
A
Outer H
MA
HMA S
uburbs
Oth U
rban
Rural
Hou
seho
lds
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5000
0
5000
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HM
A
Outer H
MA
HMA S
uburbs
Oth U
rban
Rural
Em
ploy
ees
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HM
A
Outer H
MA
HMA S
uburbs
Oth U
rban
Rural
Hou
seho
lds
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HM
A
Outer H
MA
HMA S
uburbs
Oth U
rban
Rural
Em
ploy
ees
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
112 H – HMA plan-public transport rail investments, compare with do-nothing :
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Land use measures
A-type land-use zones
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Pricing land-use seems (also) efficient 311 H – Annual tax (development impact fee) in non urban zones + fiscal incentive (tax reduction) in urban zones
-10000
-5000
0
5000
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HM
A
Outer H
MA
HMA S
uburbs
Oth U
rban
Rural
Hou
seho
lds
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5000
0
5000
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HM
A
Outer H
MA
HMA S
uburbs
Oth U
rban
Rural
Em
ploy
ees
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HM
A
Outer H
MA
HMA S
uburbs
Oth U
rban
Rural
Hou
seho
lds
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HM
A
Outer H
MA
HMA S
uburbs
Oth U
rban
Rural
Em
ploy
ees
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Policies tested and
their sustainability
evaluation0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0 ,8
1
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Global climate change
Air PollutionConsumption of natural sourcesEnvironmental quality
HealthEquity
Opportunity
Accessibility
813 C
omb. 41
1+51
2+311
+331
000 B
ase 2001
000 B
ase 2011
000 B
ase 2021
001 D
o not in
vest
002 O
nly car in
vestm
ents
003 O
nly PT inves
tment
s
121 D
evelop
orbita
l connec
tions o
f PT
211 Vuosa
ari
212 M
arja-V
antaa
213 K
eski-Pasi
la
214 E
spoon
kesku
s
215 M
atinkyl
ä
311 DIF 670
euro/a
312 D
IF 340 e
uro/a
313 D
IF 1000
euro/a
321 A
BC land u
se regul
ation for
busine
sses
331 A
BC land u
se pri
cing for
busine
sses
411 Car
operatin
g cost +
50%
412 C
ordon
(pea
k) prici
ng 2.55 e
uro
512 P
T fare
- 20%
811 Com
b. 411+5
12+311
812 C
omb. 41
1+51
2+33
1
Environmental index
Economic index €/inhabitant
Social index
Investment policies New town alternatives Land use (pricing) policies Transport pricing CombinationsBase
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Land use (pricing) policies
000 Base 2001
000 Base 2011
000 Base 2021
Base
0 0, 2 0, 4 0, 6 0, 8 10 0, 2 0, 4 0, 6 0, 8 1 -500 0 500 1500 2500
Global climate change
Air PollutionConsumption of natural sourcesEnvironmental quality
HealthEquity
Opportunity
Accessibility
Environmental index Economic index €/inhabitantSocial index
311 DIF 670 euro/a
312 DIF 340 euro/a
313 DIF 1000 euro/a
321 ABC land use regulation for businesses
331 ABC land use pricing for businesses
Land use (pricing) policies
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Conclusions – land use (pricing) policies
• The changes of the environmental, social and economic sustainability indeces are small
• The effects of land pricing policies on– overall mobility– city sprawl– CO2 emissions and– accessibilities
are positive
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Transport pricing
000 Base 2001
000 Base 2011
000 Base 2021
Base
0 0, 2 0, 4 0, 6 0, 8 10 0, 2 0, 4 0, 6 0, 8 1 -500 0 500 1500 2500
Global climate change
Air PollutionConsumption of natural sourcesEnvironmental quality
HealthEquity
Opportunity
Accessibility
Environmental index Economic index €/inhabitantSocial index
Transport pricing
411 Car operating cost +50%
412 Cordon (peak) pricing 2.55 euro
512 PT fare - 20%
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Road pricing is efficient in reducing (population) sprawl
411 H – Car operating costs +50%
-10000
-5000
0
5000
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HMA
Outer H
MA
HMA Suburb
s
Oth U
rban
Rural
Hou
seho
lds
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5000
0
5000
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HMA
Outer H
MA
HMA Suburb
s
Oth U
rban
Rural
Em
ploy
ees
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HMA
Outer H
MA
HMA Suburb
s
Oth U
rban
Rural
Hou
seho
lds
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hel Cent
re
Inner
HMA
Outer H
MA
HMA S
uburbs
Oth U
rban
Rural
Em
ploy
ees
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
Relocation to HMA
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Conclusions - transport pricing• The transport pricing policies perform well
environmentally, socially and economically– However, lowering PT fares, increasing speed
and service have a negative impact on city sprawl indicators
– Car pricing policies work efficiently against the city sprawl effect
• Combination of car pricing and PT policies have positive effects while also the city sprawl remains at reasonable level
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Combinations (car pricing, PT, land use)
000 Base 2001
000 Base 2011
000 Base 2021
Base
0 0, 2 0, 4 0, 6 0, 8 10 0, 2 0, 4 0, 6 0, 8 1 -500 0 500 1500 2500
Global climate change
Air PollutionConsumption of natural sourcesEnvironmental quality
HealthEquity
OpportunityAccessibility
Environmental index Economic index €/inhabitantSocial index
813 Comb. 411+512+311+331
811 Comb. 411+512+311
812 Comb. 411+512+331
Combinations
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Policy combination 2
812 H = 411 (VOC+50%) + 512 (fares –20%) + 331 (LU pricing)
-5000
0
5000
10000
Hou
seho
lds
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5000
0
5000
Em
ploy
ees
Diff2005
Diff2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Hou
seho
lds
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Em
ploy
ees
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Conclusions - combinations
• The combination policies are able to simultaneously improve all dimensions of sustainability (compared with the base scenario)
• In some cases they also maintain or improve the current level of sustainability
• The combinations work efficiently against city sprawl but the overall effect remains small compared with the base trends: population and welfare growth.
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Conclusions - combinations• Results of the combination policies in
Helsinki:– car-km reduction - 14 –18%– PT-km increase +16 -17%– CO2 reduction - 11 – 12%– accident reduction - 12 – 14%– less exposure to noise and pollutants– improved accessibilities– less sprawl– economic benefits (NPV) +1900€/inh
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
4. Overall conclusions
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Overall conclusions
• The sustainability evaluation showed that mosts of the tested policies reducing sprawl also improved the three dimensions of sustainability, i.e.
• Reduced sprawl means increased sustainability (exception: PT improvements may sustainable but may add to city sprawl)
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Conclusions
• The best policies were the combinations of car pricing, PT fare reductions and land use policies
• They had positive impacts on most of the city sprawl variables and simultaneously improved all the three dimensions of sustainability
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Thank you for your attention!
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Base trends vs. policy combination 813
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Less cars
better accessibilities
Less sprawl
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
The Economic index in different car pricing policies
The Economic index in different public transport pricing policies
Pricing policies:There is an optimum for car pricing and PT fares
Economic Index- Car Pricing Policies
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
+25% +50 % +75 % +100 % +150% +200%
NP
Veu
ro/c
aoit
a
Increase of car operating costs
Base
Economic Index- Public Transport Policies
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
+20% ± 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100%
NP
Veu
ro/c
aoit
a
Increase/decrease of public transport fares
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
New town alternatives
000 Base 2001
000 Base 2011
Base
0 0, 2 0, 4 0, 6 0, 8 10 0, 2 0, 4 0, 6 0, 8 1 -500 0 500 1500 2500
Global climate change
Air PollutionConsumption of natural sourcesEnvironmental quality
HealthEquity
Opportunity
Accessibility
Environmental index Economic index €/inhabitantSocial index
New town alternatives
211 Vuosaari
212 Marja-Vantaa
213 Keski-Pasila
214 Espoon keskus
215 Matinkylä
000 Base 2021
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Conclusions – New town alternatives
• The overall differences are environmentally, socially and economically small between the alternative locations
• Pasila, the most central alternative, with best PT and road connections has also the highest increase in overall mobility
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Objectives: What are the current trends - what do we try to achieve?
Sustainability
2000 2020
Goal
Continuation of existing policiesDo nothing
Time
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
CO2
-16 ,0 %
-12 ,0 %
-8 ,0 %
-4 ,0 %
0 ,0 %
2 ,0 %
1 2 3 4 5 6
Car m ile age
-2 5,0 %
-2 0 ,0 %
-15,0 %
-10 ,0 %
-5,0 %
0 ,0 %
5,0 %
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 Do Nothing
2 P T oriented land us e
3 Car c os t + 75 %
4 P T s peed + 5% , fare -20%
5 Com bination 3 and 4
6 Com bination 2, 3 and 4
M odal s har e - PT
-5,0 %
0 ,0 %
5,0 %
10 ,0 %
15,0 %
2 0 ,0 %
2 5,0 %
1 2 3 4 5 6
Inh ab itan ts in ur banz one s
-1,5%
-1,0 %
-0 ,5%
0 ,0 %
0 ,5%
1,0 %
1,5%
1 2 3 4 5 6
M odal s hare - car
-16 ,0 %
-12 ,0 %
-8 ,0 %
-4 ,0 %
0 ,0 %
2 ,0 %
1 2 3 4 5 6
Em ploye e s in ur banz one s
-0 ,1%
0 ,0 %
0 ,1%
0 ,2 %
0 ,3 %
0 ,4 %
0 ,5%
0 ,6 %
1 2 3 4 5 6
Ave r age tr ave l tim e
-5,0 %
-4 ,0 %
-3 ,0 %
-2 ,0 %
-1,0 %
0 ,0 %
1,0 %
2 ,0 %
1 2 3 4 5 6
Urban sprawl assessment
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
SH
SE
SO
SA
- 500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
EG
EA
EQ
EQ
1B S- 0 1
2B S- 2 1
3 4 5 6 1B S- 0 1
2B S- 2 1
3 4 5 6 1B S- 0 1
2B S- 2 1
3 4 5 66 2, 3
Sustainability evaluationEnvironmental index Social index Economic index
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Investment policies
000 Base 2001
000 Base 2011
000 Base 2021
001 Do not invest
002 Only car investments
003 Only PT investments
121 Develop orbital connections of PT
Investment policies
Base
0 0, 2 0, 4 0, 6 0, 8 10 0, 2 0, 4 0, 6 0, 8 1 -500 0 500 1500 2500
Global climate change
Air PollutionConsumption of natural sourcesEnvironmental quality
HealthEquity
Opportunity
Accessibility
Environmental index Economic index €/inhabitantSocial index
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Conclusions – Investment policies
• The effect on environmental and social sustainability is small
• Transport investments (both PT and road) tend to, in many cases:– increase kilometres travelled – increase the average travel time– increase CO2 emissions– decrease accessibilities
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Car costs +75% - Land use changes
0 20 40
kilom etres
0 5 10
kilom etres
Absolute changePP 214
5000 ...
2500 ... 5000500 ... 2500
-2500 ... -500-5000 ... -2500
... -5000
Relative changePP 214
5 ...2 ,5 ... 50,5 ... 2 ,5
-0 ,5 ... 0 ,5-2 ,5 ... -0 ,5-5 ... -2 ,5... -5
0 20 40
kilom etres
0 5 10
kilom etres
Absolute changeEM 214
5000 ...
2500 ... 5000500 ... 2500
-2500 ... -500-5000 ... -2500
... -5000
Relative change (%)EM 214
5 ...2,5 ... 50,5 ... 2 ,5
-0,5 ... 0 ,5-2,5 ... -0 ,5-5 ... -2 ,5... -5
Population Employment
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Indicators are defined to measure each dimension of sustainability (PROPOLIS). The indicator themes are:
Health EquityOpportunities
Accessibility and traffic
ENVIRONMENTALGlobal climate change Air pollution Consumption of natural sources Environmental quality
Total net benefit from transport
SOCIAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Example: Noise levels and exposure to noise
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
PT-fares –60% - Land use changes
0 20 40
kilom etres
0 5 10
kilom etres
Absolute changeEM 123
5000 ...
2500 ... 5000500 ... 2500
-2500 ... -500-5000 ... -2500
... -5000
Relative change (%)EM 123
5 ...2 ,5 ... 50 ,5 ... 2 ,5
-0 ,5 ... 0 ,5-2 ,5 ... -0 ,5-5 ... -2 ,5... -5
0 20 40
kilom etres
0 5 10
kilom etres
Absolute changePP 123
5000 ...
2500 ... 5000500 ... 2500
-2500 ... -500-5000 ... -2500
... -5000
Relative change (%)PP 123
5 ...2,5 ... 50,5 ... 2,5
-0,5 ... 0,5-2,5 ... -0,5-5 ... -2,5... -5
Population Employment
SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, November 9th 2004 D G R esearc h
KARI LAUTSO / LT CONSULTANTS
Car costs +75%, PT speed/service +5%, PT fare –20%
0 20 40
kilom etres
Absolute changePP 717
5000 ...
2500 ... 5000500 ... 2500
-2500 ... -500-5000 ... -2500
... -5000
Relative change (% )PP 717
5 ...2 ,5 ... 50,5 ... 2 ,5
-0,5 ... 0 ,5-2,5 ... -0 ,5-5 ... -2 ,5... -5
0 20 40
kilom etres
Absolute changeEM 717
5000 ...
2500 ... 5000500 ... 2500
-2500 ... -500-5000 ... -2500
... -5000
Relative change (%)EM 717
5 ...2,5 ... 50,5 ... 2 ,5
-0,5 ... 0 ,5-2,5 ... -0 ,5-5 ... -2 ,5... -5
Population Employment