scaling up sustainable commodity supplay chain€¦ · director agribusiness master university of...
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SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE COMMODITY SUPPLY CHAINS
SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE
COMMODITY SUPPLAY
CHAIN
KATOOMBA XIX – Iguazu Falls, Brazil – March 2014
KATOOMBA XIX IGUAZU FALLS, Brazil, March 2014.
Agr. Ing. Mag. Sebastian Senesi
Director Agribusiness Master
University of Buenos Aires
1
Mercosur as a big supplier
Content
• XXXX Argentina: Soybean
Argentina: Milk
Argentina: Beef
Conclusion
2
The growth rates of the uses of the grain is significantly higher than the production
Crecimiento anual promedio 2013 - 2022.
Fuente: En base a Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook.
7,9%
PBI/Cápita
3,5%
Meat
5,1%
Bio-fuels
2,5%
Soybean
2,6%
Corn
3
It is projected that 48% of the growth in production of vegetable protein in the world will take place in the MERCOSUR
Percentage growth of vegetable protein production 2013-2022
.
1
48% of the
total growth
Fuente: En base a Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook.
Projected growth
3
4
23
21
6 15
14 13
Only 3% of the world is
suitable for agriculture
without irrigation
Increasing urbanization
Water Scarcity
Desertification and land
degradation
Stable institutional
framework for generating
rules
4
Argentina: The most optimistic projections indicate that annual soybean crop will not exceed 61 million tons in 2020
Millons of tons. Millons of hectares
Fuente: Elaboración propia en base a Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook.
54,3
2014
52,2
2016
57,8
2012 2020
+2%
61,8
2019
59,6
2017
56,2
2015 2018
47,8
42,9
2010
48,0
53,5
2011
49,9
2013
Proyección de producción de soja a 2020
CAGR*
Planted
Area 19,9 20,8 19,7 21,4 21,6 21,7 21,9 22,1 22,3 22,4 22,6
5
Argentina tends to export most of its production of soybeans, while Brazil consumes a large part of it
29,6
7,4 38%
Local 17%
16,5
Exportado
83%
94%
6%
62%
86%
14%
Grain Oil Meal Total
53,5
2014e, Millons of tons, Soybean and Subproducts inclustocks.
Brasil Argentina
100% 31% 55% 14%
Fuente: Programa de Agronegocios de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (PAA-UBA) y Associação Brasileira das Indústrias de Óleos Vegetais (ABIOVE).
• Argentina exports most of its processed into meal and oil production,
however ...
Brazil ... tend to consume more of, such as grain and soybean exports and
consume processed either as flour or oil
The role of biodiesel is crucial to raise domestic oil consumption
Grain
67%
83,2
Total
48,0
33%
86%
14%
53%
81%
Meal
28,0
47%
Oil
19%
Exportado
7,1
Local
100% 58% 34% 8%
Share of total
production
6
In a scenario with idle capacity bargaining power of the oil industry, there will be a strong tension between actors.
Fuente: Programa de Agronegocios de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (PAA-UBA)
4,7
Nidera Terminal 6 Noble Cargill
+50%
Otros
3,5
LDC Vicentin
8,6
(16%)
3,3
55,3
2,9
7,0
(13%)
3,1
2,3
Destiny
Meal
Molinos Bunge Total
Capacity
6,6
36,9 6,6
Oleag. San
Lorenzo
AGD
6,6
Cosecha disponible para molienda vs. capacidad instalada y utilización aparente de la industria aceitera
43 Number of
Industries
2014e, Millones de Toneladas.
4 1 2 1 4 2 1 1 2 1 24
The TOP5 concentrates 60% of
installed capacity
7
The bulk of potentially exportable products are consumed domestically (83%) and import targets are atomized
2013, Millons tons.
Production of exportables*
Fuente: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) y Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook.
Exports Volume
USA 7,4
(18%)
European Union 15,3
37%)
Total 41,4
OthersOtros 4,5
Egipt 0,8
Australia 0,9
Argentina 0,9
(2%)
Russia 1,0
Brazil 1,5
China 1,7
4%)
New Zeland 2,7
(7%)
India 4,8
12%)
Otros** 0,70
Chile 0,03
Turkey 0,04
Canadá 0,05
Uckrain 0,07
Uruguay 0,13
Argentina 0,41
(6%)
Australia 0,47
(7%)
USA 0,87
(12%)
European Union 1,94
(27%)
New Zeland 2,52
(35%)
Total 7,23
*
**
***
Leche en polvo entera y descremada, queso, manteca y suero en polvo.
En orden de importancia: Turquía, Rusia, Filipinas, Malasia e India y más de 20 países.
En orden de importancia: Brasil, Unión Europea, Tailandia, Australia y más de 26 países.
Imports Volume
Otros*** 3,08
(43%)
Philipins 0,20
(3%)
Indonesia 0,24
USA 0,27
Egypt 0,28
Argelia 0,32
JapónJapan 0,32
México 0,38
Saudi Arabia 0,43
(6%)
Russia 0,62
(9%)
China 1,07
(15%)
Total 7,23 1,9%
Average annual growth projected for 2022
3,5%
1,7%
-0,5%
1,8%
-1,1%
0,5%
4,7%
1,2%
2,3%
1,9%
1,2%
1,9%
1,5%
1,5%
4,5%
1,0%
2,2%
1,5%
1,6%
-0,6%
1,6%
-1,0%
2,5%
1,4%
0,7%
1,7%
2,7%
1,2%
1,9%
1,4%
1,8%
0,6%
0,8%
1,8%
1,5%
8
Argentina: The main growth of dairy fresh products will outpace and globally in the past decade, but low global impact
Índice base 1999, Millones de toneladas.
Growth projected milk products
2022
Fuente: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) y Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook.
* CAGR: Compound Average Growth Rate, muestra el crecimiento promedio anual punta a punta para un período.
1999 2005 2010 2015 2022
40
60
80
100
120
140
Manteca
Descremada
en polvo
Productos
frescos
Queso
Entera
en polvo
0,6%
0,9%
-1,7%
1,4%
-0,8%
1,2%
1,1%
-0,1%
1,5%
0,9%
0,7%
-3,2%
CAGR* Millons ton projected a 2022
0,6
0,3
2,0
0,06
0,04
9
Argentina's participation in the world market for beef is not relevant, if the Brazilian
2013; Millons tons..
Fuente: Elaboración propia en base a Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook.
Producción global
Percentage of meat for export
Total
ResoOthers 16,7 (25%)
Russia 1,7 (3%)
México 1,8 (3%)
Australia 2,2 (3%)
Argentina 2,7 (4%)
India 3,4 (5%)
Subsahrian Africa 3,8 (6%)
China 6,5 (10%)
European Union 7,8 (12%)
Brazil 10,0 (15%)
USA 10,6 (16%)
67,2 14%
12%
15%
4%
1%
41%
7%
4%
68%
24%
0%
16%
10
Argentina: The beef production levels will be similar to last years, mainly by institutional arrangements
Millones de toneladas.
Fuente: Elaboración propia en base a Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook.
83%
10%
90%
7%
85%
7%
2,6
+2%
17% 17% 17%
83%
3,2 3,1 3,1
Exportación
83% 83%
17%
-26%
Consumo
local
2017 2016
3,0
2015
2,8
2013
2,7
2012 2011
2,9
2014
2,8 2,6
3,4
3,1
2009
2,5
2010 2008 2007
3,2
2018
83%
14%
80%
2019
17% 20%
12%
93% 93%
14%
86%
15%
83%
2020
88%
17%
86%
Projection to 2020 beef production
CAGR*
Massive liquidation of
stocks due to drought and
price controls Increased export volumes
due to lower economic
activity
11
Conclusions
Argentina will remain a major player as a producer of vegetable
proteins. The increase in volume is going to be mainly generated
by productivity.
However, the increase of 1 million hectares of soybeans will be on
new areas, which must comply with the relevant laws.
The pressure to produce more milk and beef will be global and not
local.
Argentina is one of the few countries in the world able to provide
acceptable foods in quantity and quality. This tradition has a
strong predisposition towards technological innovation, and also
availability of large areas of arable land that can be incorporated.
The challenge is to use this opportunity available, without generating
social and environmental drama.
Una visión
desde
Argentina