scaling up maize production through weather …...scaling up maize production through weather...
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Scaling up Maize Production through Weather Resilient Processes
Examples from Sub-Saharan Africa
Rodney Witman Lunduka, (PhD).
Africa Food Security Conference and Agro-ExhibitionOctober 12 – 13, Crowne Plaza Hotel
Nairobi, Kenya
Climate Change
Impact is Here
The Genetic
Response
The Agronomic Response
Scaling Up and Out
+ Crop
Insurance
Sample Success
Story
Increase in temperature in maize mega environments: The Double-edged sword!
Maize yield losses double under drought stress when temperatures exceed 30°C
Cairns et. al., 2013
Survey Question to Farmers:
List the three most importantvariety characteristics you consider
when selecting maize seed
60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
High yielding
Drought escape
Storage pest resistance
Pest and disease resistant
Grain colour
Quality and taste
Input requirements
Marketability of grain
male
female
60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Drought escape
High yielding
Storage pest resistance
Grain to flour ratio
Pest and disease resistant
Quality and taste
Input requirements
Uniform maturity
Stover yield
Male
Female
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
High yielding
Drought escape
Storage pest resistance
Quality and taste
Input requirements
Pest and disease resistant
Grain to flour ratio
Marketability of grain
Uniform maturity
No lodgingMale
Female
60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Drought escape
High yielding
Input requirements
Pest and disease resistant
Storage pest resistance
Quality and taste
Marketability of grain
male
female
60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
High yielding
Drought escape
Pest and disease resistant
Marketability of grain
Input requirements
Storage pest resistance
Quality and taste
Grain colour
Grain to flour ratio
male
female
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
High yieldingDrought escape
Taste and quality of foodStorage pest resistance
Input requirementsPest and disease resistance
Stover yieldMarketability of grain
Grain to flour ratio
Male
Female
The Genetic Response: New Maize Varieties
DROUGHT TOLERANT VARIETIES
Varieties that can survive at least 6 weeks during flowering period with little or no rain.
CountryNumber of Varieties Varieties with additional traits
Hybrid OPV Total Striga tolerant NUE QPM
Zambia 20 7 27 0 5 2Nigeria 11 14 25 18 4 3Benin 1 24 25 19 7 2Ghana 16 7 23 16 2 5Zimbabwe 19 3 22 0 0 1Tanzania 17 3 20 0 0 2Malawi 15 3 18 0 0 1Kenya 12 5 17 0 0 0Uganda 14 1 15 0 1 0Ethiopia 6 5 11 0 0 4Angola 3 8 11 0 0 0Mali 8 2 10 8 4 0Mozambique 5 4 9 0 0 0Total 147 86 233 61 23 20Percentages 63.1 36.9 100.0 26.2 9.9 8.6
Performance of new DT varieties
Heat stress performance of new varieties
Magorokosho in prep.
Mean
New Experimental hybrids
1 2
Commercial hybrids
Grain yield (t/ha-1)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
CZH
1243
CZH
1257
CZH
1242
CZH
1262
CZH
1272
SC403
CZH
1261
ZM521
SC513
ZM309
CZH
1110
CZH
126
CZH
123
PAN53
CZH
128
CZH
113
CZH
1269
SC627
Farmer's Variety
ZM627
Farmers’ grain quality preferences: New vs. Commercial Maize Varieties
EARLY Maturing varieties LATE Maturing varieties
BOTH EARLY and LATE MATURING DT VARIETIES PREFERRED BY FARMERS
Nutritional preferences:Pro-Vitamin A Maize vs. White Maize Sadza (Ugali)
0102030405060708090
PreferorangeSadza
Better tasteand flavour
Better smell Bettertexture
Female 80.47 81.25 17.19 8.59Male 83.78 81.08 26.13 3.6
% F
arm
ers
Impact of DT varieties on maize production. (Case of Zimbabwe, household survey)
A change from non-DT maize varieties to DT maize varieties can increase total maize production by 270kg/acre
(670kg/ha).
0.00
05.00
1
Densi
ty
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500(kg)
Kernel density estimate None DT maizeKenrnel density estimate DT maize
Kernel Density Estimates of DT and non-DT maize production at household level
Reasons for low adoption of DT varieties
• Public agriculture input subsidy programs (Malawi)
Government Policies affecting Supply/ Demand
• “Cash cows”
Market Penetration: Old and Big vs. New and Small Producers
• Zambia, Zimbabwe and Kenya.• Local varieties OPV Hybrids
Step-wise Adoption Patterns
• The “good” evil?
Increasing Frequency of Drought
d dd d d
c cc c
a
cbc bc bc
a
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
DK
C 8
0-53
, con
trol
ZM 5
23
MH
31
PAN
53
SC 7
19
DK
C 8
0-53
, con
trol
ZM 5
23
MH
31
PAN
53
SC 7
19
DK
C 8
0-53
, con
trol
ZM 5
23
MH
31
PAN
53
SC 7
19
Control CA +maize CA+maize/leg
Gra
in y
ield
(t h
a-1 )
Treatments
Performance of DT Maize + Conservation Agriculture
(2005-2015, Malawi)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Ridge & furrowMaize continuous
Dibble stick Maizecontinuous
Dibble stick-Maize/Cowpea intercrop
Dibble stick-Maize -Cowpea rot
low
rain
fall
& m
ediu
m e
leva
tion
2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
Net benefits (in USD)
Manual Sustainable Intensification Practices: Net Benefits (2012-2016), Eastern Zambia
Mutenje et al. 2016
Scaling up uptake of DT maize varieties
and good agronomic practices.
CIMMYT Current Approaches to Reducing Risk in Maize Production
1. Scaling up production and supply of new varieties• Support to public and private producers • Training of producers and agro-dealers
2. Inducing and increasing demand of the new varieties by smallholder farmers
• Mounting extensive demonstration plots• Providing information on the benefits of DT maize varieties• Direct-to-farmer information (Fliers, posters, SMS, etc.)
CIMMYT Current Approaches to Reducing Risk in Maize Production
3. Adding good agronomic management to varieties• Training producers, dealers and extension agents• Direct-to-farmer information (fliers, posters, SMS,
e.t.c)
4. Bundling the DT maize varieties with weather index insurance (pilot: 2015-18)• Mozambique • Tanzania
3 Prong approach
Improved Genes+
Good agronomic practices
Improved Genes (DT)
+Good Agronomic
practices
Crop Insurance??
Mrs. Miriam Phiri of Chifwiti Village, Chief Nyampande, Petauke, Zambia with her full granary Drought Tolerant Maize (Pan 53).
A bumper harvest even in a drought year 2015/16 season.
Thank you for your interest!