sawasdee - thermal energy · presentation prepared by mr ransit hiangrat of the thai sugar ... as...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Sawasdee
Presentation prepared by Mr Ransit Hiangrat of the Thai Sugar Millers Corporation, Malcolm Wallis and Dr Pit Pruksathorn of Sutech Engineering.
Thai Sugar Millers Corporation Limited
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• Secretariat Office of 3 Thai Sugar Millers Associations
• Information center for Thai sugar millers
• Coordinate with Thai millers and other stakeholders on the development of Thai sugar industry
• Promote R&D to enhance the industry’s competitiveness
• Promote technical and business cooperation with foreign partners
• Support freer and fairer sugar trade in the global market
Sutech Engineering Limited
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• A member of the Sutech Group of Companies established in 1974
• To assist the development of the Thai Sugar Industry
• Sutech Engineering established in 1990
• Design and manufacture of equipment dedicated to sugar production
• Now a major supplier of equipment and complete sugar plants in Asia and developing outside of Asia
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“Thailand Sugar Industry”
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The Sugar Trading World
Net exporters
Net importers
Net ex/importers
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Sugar Exporting Countries
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Thailand: 2nd largest exporter after Brazil
Brazil +25
EU -2
Thailand +7-8
Australia +3
Asia: 8-10 mln.tons deficit
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THAILAND: THE ONLY NET SUGAR EXPORTER IN ASIA
Source: LMC Sugar and Sweeteners Market Report, 7
Thailand is the only net exporting country in the ASEAN region
Net
exporters
Self-
sufficient
countries
Net
importers
No local
production
Thailand Myanmar
Philippines
Vietnam
Indonesia
Cambodia
Laos
Malaysia
Brunei
Singapore
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4 Mills
20 Mills
19 Mills
9 Mills
Source: Ministry of Industry
Thai sugar mills
• No of mills : 52 Total capacity: 1 mln.tcd • Cane areas: 49 provinces 10 mln.rais (1.6 mln.ha)
• Rules for establishing a new mill: - No less than 50 kms between new
and existing mills - Cane crushed at least 50% of the
total capacity in the 1st year of operation
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Cane Zoning
area
• Areas within 50 km. radius
• Areas within 100 km. radius
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Cane areas
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105.96 11.30
1
3
5
7
9
11
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Cane production Sugar production
Cane(M.tons) Sugar(M.tons)
2014/15 Crop Year: record production
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Groups of Thai Mills (2015 crop year)
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2.30
1.60
0.99 0.91
0.64 0.64 0.56
0.53 0.44
0.40 0.33
0.25
1.70
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Cane Sugar
Cane(Mln.tons) Sugar(Mln.tons)
Cane areas by region
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2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Change
East 0.45 0.42 0.44 +0.02
North 2.03 2.17 2.19 +0.02
Central 2.71 2.62 2.69 +0.07
Northeast 3.65 4.02 4.09 +0.07
Total area 8.84 9.23 9.41 +0.39
Unit: Mln.rais (6.25 rais/ha.)
0.44
2.19
2.69
4.09
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15*
East North Central N.East
Major crops areas
Year 2014 Year 2015*
Rubber
In season rice
Off season rice
Cassava
Maize
60.54 mln.rais
15.06 mln.rais
8.43 mln.rais
7.29 mln.rais
18.22 mln.rais
55.95 mln.rais
8.49 mln.rais
8.96 mln.rais
7.24 mln.rais
18.85 mln.rais
- 7.58 %
-43.61 %
6.29 %
-0.70 %
3.41 %
Palm oil 4.15 mln.rais 4.40 mln.rais 6.09 %
Cane 8.77 mln.rais 9.08 mln.rais 3.53 %
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics
Remarks * Estimation (Nov 2015)
%
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• Generates > 6 bln. USD annually
• Create income and employment for > 300,000 families • >1 mln people are involved in sugar and related sectors
• 31 Cane Growers Associations
• 3 Sugar Millers Associations
Sugar Industry Contribution to Thailand’s Economy
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ที่มา : Accenture
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No. of Farmers (mln. families)
Rice
Rubber
Cassava
Corn
Sugarcane
Palm oil
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1,898,441
887,512
679,840
640,050 527,069
503,636
491,005
382,849
284,986
143,439
104,898
1,434,300
Thai sugar markets in 2015 (tons)
Indonesia
China
Myanmar
Japan
S.Korea
Malaysia
Cambodia
Vietnam
Taiwan
Singapore
Laos
Others
2015/16 crop • Long delay of monsoon (only one more month left) • Drought spread all over the country • 4 major dams with less than 20% of the available
water holding capacity filled • Govt. warning: Stop growing off-season rice
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2015/16 Daily Crushing Capacity (TCD) As of 24 Jan 2016 (61 days)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
12000001 6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101
106
111
116
121
126
131
136
141
146
151
156
161
166
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
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Cane and Sugar Production as of 24 Jan 2016 (60 days)
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Cane crushed
(mln.t) 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 % change
North 9.77 12.20 9.91 -18.79
Central 11.86 13.47 10.15 -24.60
East 1.41 2.54 2.22 -12.30
N. East 16.92 21.15 19.86 - 6.10
Total 39.96 49.35 42.14 -14.60
Sugar
production
(mln.t)
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 % change
North 0.90 1.14 0.85 -25.07
Central 1.13 1.21 0.86 -28.80
East 0.14 0.24 0.19 -19.93
N. East 1.72 2.19 1.95 -10.84
Total 3.89 4.78 3.86 -19.23
Cane and Sugar Act B.E. 2527 (A.D.1984)
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Sugar Cane: Natural and more than just sugar
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Thai Cane and Sugar Industry
Cane : 106 mln.t
Sugar : 11.3 mln.t
51 mills
Ethanol
Cane and Sugar Act B.E. 2527 (1984)
Revenue sharing Growers/Millers
70:30
Cane and Sugar Fund
Local consumption: 2.45 mln.t
Gasohol (E10, 20, 85)
Revenue: 190,000 Mln.B Molasses 4.7 mln.t
2014/15
Growers : 300,000 families
Export 8 mln.t
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Cane for sugar
Ethanol Not governed by the Law
Cane and Sugar Act B.E. 2527 (A.D. 1984)
Cane and Sugar Board
Administrative Committee
Cane Committee Sugar Committee
Grower: 9
Millers: 7
Govt.: 5
Growers: 5
Millers: 4
Govt: 3
Person: 1
Cane and Sugar Fund
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Grower: 3
Millers: 3
Govt.: 6
Grower: 5
Millers: 5
Govt.: 5
Grower: 6
Millers: 4
Govt.: 4
Thailand Sugar Industry
Cane and Sugar Act B.E. 2527 (1984)
Cornerstones of the current policy
• Revenue sharing between growers/millers: 70:30 - Sugar and molasses included in the share - Ethanol and other by-products not governed by the Law
• Secure supply of sugar for local consumption
• Stability of local prices
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Thailand Sugar Industry
Cane and Sugar Act B.E. 2527 (1984)
Cornerstones of the current policy
• Production quota allocation for each mill
Quota A: Whites and refined for local consumption
Ex-mill price determined by growers and millers
Retail ceiling prices set by Ministry of Commerce
Quota B: Raws for export by TCSC (800,000 tons)
to set reference export prices for revenue calculation
Quota C: Raws, whites and refined for freely export by mills
(Total production - Quota A - Quota B = Quota C)
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Revenue Sharing System
Sugar
Quota B Quota A Quota C
Cane...
Net proceed
Cane and Sugar Fund
Growers
70%
Millers
30%
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Challenges: Retail prices in Thailand: the lowest in Asia
Retail prices/kg
Thailand 23.50 Baht ($US 0.65)
Laos
27 to 40 Baht.
Cambodia
Vietnam
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
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Challenges
• Climate change • Less than 20% of cane areas irrigated • Low farm productivity • El Nino effect until 2016/17
Unsustainable cane supply Mills’ undercapacity
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Farm productivity • Short ratoon cycle
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Crop yr Cane Production Cane Area Cane yield Sugar yield
(Mln.t) (Mln.ha) (t/ha) (Kg./ton cane
2007/08 73.308 1.00 73.57 105.57
2008/09 66.463 1.03 64.65 108.12
2009/10 68.480 1.08 63.49 101.10
2010/11 95.360 1.30 73.36 101.33
2011/12 97.979 1.33 73.72 104.63
2012/13 100.000 1.41 70.69 100.27
2013/14 103.660 1.48 70.16 108.95
2014/15 105.956 1.53 68.9 106.66
Cane and sugar
Cane Sugar Sugar yield CCS
Ave. cane prices
Mln.ton Mln.ton Kg/ton cane Baht/ton
2003/04 64.48 7.01 108.71 12.09 567.82
2004/05 47.81 5.11 106.94 12.17 744.69
2005/06 46.69 4.78 102.48 11.61 929.43
2006/07 63.80 6.72 105.33 11.91 782.93
2007/08 73.31 7.74 105.57 12.09 756.61
2008/09 66.46 7.19 108.12 12.28 1,043.47
2009/10 68.48 6.92 101.10 11.58 1,094.31
2010/11 95.36 9.66 101.33 11.78 1,152.88
2011/12 97.98 10.25 104.63 12.04 1,206.44
2012/13 100.00 10.03 100.27 11.65 1,098.33
2013/14 103.66 11.29 108.95 12.56 1,105.20
2014/15 105.96 11.31 106.66 12.23 968.26
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Climate change
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ความเสี่ยงหมายเลข 1 ของโลกคือ “Water crises” 33
Thailand: most affected by extreme weather
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Thailand water situation
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
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ปรมิาณน า้ไหลเขา้ (ลา้น ลบ
.ม
.)
เฉลีย่
ปี ปี 2556
ปี 2555
ปี 2557
ปี 2553
ปี 2558
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Water resources
Outflow plan
Actual outflow
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Cubic meters
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Challenges: World Economy
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เกษตรบริบทใหม่ ก้าวไกลด้วยนวัตกรรม
ทีม่า: World Economic Outlook, October 2015, IMF
%
World US Europe China Japan ASEAN
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Brazil
Australia
ไทย
ส่วนเกนิ ++
World sugar balance
World prices
Funds + Speculation
+ Distorted markets
India
Thailand
Challenges: Low world prices
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Challenges: Cane logistics
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Challenges: sugar logistics
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Challenges: Aging population Shortage of labor
40
Thailand population structure
41
Changing structure of Thailand population
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
% Growth No of population
% Growth Millions
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• Rising cane input cost
• Lack of labor
• Small scale farm size:
unsuitable for mechanization
Challenges
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Challenges: Small scale farms unsuitable for mechanization
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Promote the use of farm mechanization
• Soft loans for cane harvesters and farm machinery
(2010-2015: 6.0 bln.baht/600 cane harvesters)
Financial sources:
- Bank of Agriculture & Cooperatives
- Cane and Sugar Fund
45
Farm productivity • Short ratoon cycle
46
Crop yr Cane Production Cane Area Cane yield Sugar yield
(Mln.t) (Mln.ha) (t/ha) (Kg./ton cane
2007/08 73.308 1.00 73.57 105.57
2008/09 66.463 1.03 64.65 108.12
2009/10 68.480 1.08 63.49 101.10
2010/11 95.360 1.30 73.36 101.33
2011/12 97.979 1.33 73.72 104.63
2012/13 100.000 1.41 70.69 100.27
2013/14 103.660 1.48 70.16 108.95
2014/15 105.956 1.53 68.9 106.66
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Diversification
Challenges
Existing Companies Installed cap.
(Liters/day) Raw mat.
1. Thai Ethanol 100,000- Molasses 2. Thai Alcohol 200,000- Molasses 3. Thai Agro Energy 150,000- Molasses 4. Thai Ethanol Power 130,000- Cassava 5. Khon Khan Alcohol 150,000- Molasses 6. Mitrphol Biofuel (Chaiyabhum) 500,000- Molasses 7. E 85 250,000- Molasses 8. KI Ethanol 100,000- Molasses 9. Mitrphol Biofuel (Kalasin) 230,000- Molasses 10. Akarat Pattana* 230,000- Molasses 11.Thai Roong Ruang Energy 120,000- Molasses 12. Ratburi Ethanol Co., Ltd. 150,000- Cassava 13. ES Power Co., Ltd.* 150,000- Molasses 14. Mae sord Co., Ltd.* 230,000- Cane 15. Sapthip Co., Ltd. 200,000- Cassava 16. Tai ping Ethanol Co., Ltd. 150,000- Cassava 17. P.S.C. Starch Product Plc. 150,000- Cassava 18. Mitrphol Biofuel (Danchang) 200,000- Molasses 19. Khonkaen Alcohol (Bo Ploy) 200,000- Molasses
20. Thai Agro Energy 2 200,000- Molasses
21. Ubol Bio Ethanol 400,000- Cassava
21 plants 4,190,000
21 Existing projects (4.19 ML/D) 14 molasses-based 1 cane-based 6 cassava-based
Ethanol Plants
48
Ethanol in 2015
Target ethanol demand (MLPD)
2.96 6.2 9.0
51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Start E20 Sell Gasohol
E10 nationwide
Ban on 91 (1 Jan 2013)
Related policy
49
85 10
Ethanol Policy
• No mandate on blending
• Ban on ULG 91
• Regional biofuel hub
Regular ULG 95
Target year
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Daily Ethanol Consumption (Mln.L/D)
• Ban on ULG 91 in Jan 2013
• Rising demand of E20 and E85
• Current demand rises above 3.5 mln./D
Challenges: Low oil prices
50
ASEAN Thailand
Population 598 mln. 67 mln.
Sugar production
17 mln.tons 10 mln.tons
Sugar imports 5-6 mln.tons 0.0 mln.tons
Sugar balance Net
importers Net exporter
Challenges: ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)
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• Economic linkage: business and trade cooperation
• Land link under Greater Mekong Sub-region
Challenges for the Thai sugar industry
52
ASEAN-GMS connectivity Great Mekong Sub-region
East West Economic Corridor
53
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“Thank you”
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“Khorp khun khrap”