saturation, maturation and consolidation: tbr's computing devices benchmark webinar

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TBR T E C H N O L O G Y B U S IN E SS R E SE A R C H , IN C. TBR’s Computing Business Quarterly SM Webinar Computing Devices: Saturation, Maturation, Consolidation July 22, 2014

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The astounding growth rate of smartphone and tablet sales has plummeted from low double digits to high single digits, as is customary in maturing markets. Mobile device growth hit the wall at an alarming rate because adoption of the device grew so fast. At the same time, new products are met with an increasing level of boredom. Smartphones and tablets are good products, but they are only getting slightly better. Increasing sales and boredom with products are making customers change their approach to these devices, and vendors that recognize and address the changes can continue to progress in an increasingly challenging product category. On July 22, Principal Analyst Ezra Gottheil and Analyst Jack Narcotta discussed the causes and effects of this sudden slowdown in growth and made recommendations on what vendors can do in the changed marketplace. Questions for discussion included: • What are the winning configurations, and what form factors do they displace? • Which markets fit these configurations? • What are buyers looking for, and how will buyer expectations change?

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Page 1: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.

TBR’s Computing Business QuarterlySM WebinarComputing Devices: Saturation, Maturation, Consolidation

July 22, 2014

Page 2: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Ezra GottheilPrincipal Analyst, Devices

Email: [email protected]: @egottheil

Jack NarcottaAnalyst, Devices

Email: [email protected]: @JackN_TBR

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Page 3: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

PCs and mobile devices settle in for the long term

Breaking news – Microsoft, Apple/IBM

Two industriesPCs return to modest growthMobile device growth slowsNew customer behaviorsLooking for profits & growth

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Page 4: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Recent events

Microsoft memo & layoffsIBM/Apple Announcement

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Page 5: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

A tale of two businesses

Few vendors serve bothSome market overlapMobile devices slowing, PCs recoveringCommon issues

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PCs Mobile Devices

Page 6: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Commercial PCs bounce back

PCs are a productivity necessityLonger lifecycleNew form factorsIncludes Windows tablets

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Page 7: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Modest PC Recovery

Includes ChromeOSConsumers will followModest growthStable marginsConsolidationASP declines

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Page 8: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Slowing growth in mobile devices

Not a decline, at least not yetSaturation – replacement in mature marketsHigh end purchasers are gone – average prices will fallEmerging markets limited by data plan cost

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Page 9: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Maturation - products grow up, often very fast

Fewer breakthroughsGood enough is good enoughLittle differentiationIncreasing specialization

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Page 10: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Implications for vendors

Lower ASPsLengthening lifecyclesThe “land rush” is overMargin pressure

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Page 11: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

NowThen

Saturation and maturation are changing buying behavior

Customersseek performance Customers assume performance

Price is less important Price is more important

Service is secondary Service is primary

New features excite customers New features bore customers

Customers want to do new things Customers want less trouble

Design matters Design matters even more

Durability doesn’t matter much Durability matters a lot

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Page 12: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

NowThen

Vendor strategies must change

Win new customers Take customers from competition

Satisfy network providers Delight network providers

Be an attractive choice Pull customers to network providers

Add many new features Add killer features

Promote new features Explain value of new feature

Build “hero” devices Build specialized devices

Emphasize performance Emphasize reliability and durability

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Page 13: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Profits and growth

Beyond the deviceNot just “Device as a Service:”• “Service as a Service,” • or just “Service”Closer relationships with customersThings

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Page 14: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Things

Already hereGrowing and will growIndustry reactionWinnersChallenges

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Page 15: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Winning strategy

Upside for buyerDownside for buyerA clear pathA good storyLuck

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Page 16: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Ezra GottheilPrincipal Analyst, Devices

Email: [email protected]: @egottheilTelephone: 603.758.1853

Jack NarcottaAnalyst, Devices

Email: [email protected]: @JackN_TBRTelephone: 603.758.1818

TBR Devices Webinar — Webinar Contact Information

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For additional information on TBR’s research capabilities, please contact:

John Spooner James McIlroyDirector — Computing Business Practice Vice President of SalesEmail: [email protected] Email: [email protected]:603.929.1166 Telephone:603.929.1166

Twitter: @TBRincSlideShare: www.slideshare.net/TBR_Market_InsightYouTube: www.youtube.com/user/TBRIChannelLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/technology-business-research

Page 17: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

PC vendors

Handset vendors

Tablet vendors

Computing Devices Benchmark: Portfolio

The Computing Devices Benchmark provides ongoing coverage of PC, tablet and smartphone vendors and their strategies

Benchmarked Device Vendors

• Amazon• Samsung• ASUS• Motorola• LG• RIM• HTC• Huawei• Nokia• ZTE

• HP• Dell• Apple• Toshiba• Panasonic• Acer• Lenovo• Fujitsu Devices• Sony• Microsoft

Nonbenchmarked Influencers• Microsoft• Google• Intel• AMD

• ARM• Qualcomm• NVIDIA• Broadcom

TBR will rank and score the top brand-name device companies and chronicle their interactions with key ecosystem partners that influence the devices business

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Partner Ecosystem

Content Ecosystem

Platform

Ecosystem

Page 18: Saturation, Maturation and Consolidation: TBR's Computing Devices Benchmark Webinar

TBR

TBR Quarterly Webinar Series |7.22.14 | www.tbri.com | ©2014 Technology Business Research Inc.

Computing practice syndicated research coverage

Device Benchmark Vendors(Benchmark XLS data is also available)

Data Center Benchmark Vendors (Benchmark XLS data is also available) Computing Vendor Coverage

• Acer*• Amazon• Apple• Asus*• BlackBerry• Dell• Fujitsu• HP• HTC• Huawei• Lenovo

• LG• Motorola*• Nokia*• Panasonic*• Samsung*• Sony• Toshiba• ZTE

• Brocade• Bull• Cisco• Dell• EMC• Fujitsu• HDS• HP

• Huawei• IBM• Juniper• NEC• NetApp• Oracle• Quantum• Unisys

• Acer*• Apple• Asus*• Dell• EMC• Fujitsu• Google• HP• IBM• Intel• Lenovo• Microsoft• NetApp• Samsung*• Sony• Toshiba Corporate IT Buying Behavior & Customer Satisfaction Studies

• Desktops• Notebooks• Services and Support

• x86-Based Servers• Apple Enterprise PCs*• Cisco UCS*

TBR Computing Practice Syndicated Coverage

*Semiannual publication

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TBR

TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.

About TBR

Technology Business Research, Inc. is a leading independent technology market research and consulting firm specializing in the business and financial analyses of hardware, software, professional services, telecom and enterprise network vendors, and operators.

Serving a global clientele, TBR provides timely and actionable market research and business intelligence in formats that are tailored to clients’ needs. Our analysts are available to further address client-specific issues or information needs on an inquiry or proprietary consulting basis.

TBR has been empowering corporate decision makers since 1996.

To learn how our analysts can address your unique business needs, please visit our website or contact us today.

Contact Us

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This report is based on information made available to the public by the vendor and other public sources. No representation is made that this information is accurate or complete. Technology Business Research will not be held liable or responsible for any decisions that are made based on this information. The information contained in this report and all other TBR products is not and should not be construed to be investment advice. TBR does not make any recommendations or provide any advice regarding the value, purchase, sale or retention of securities. This report is copyright-protected and supplied for the sole use of the recipient. Contact ©Technology Business Research, Inc. for permission to reproduce.