satellite ozone needs for climate...
TRANSCRIPT
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Satellite Ozone needs for Climate
Applications
Meteorological Observatory Hohenpeißenberg
German Weather Service
Thanks to many many colleagues!!1.Feb 2016 Ulf Köhler
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atmosphere = complex + beautiful
1 observation & 1 species are not going to do it
1.Feb 2016 Ulf Köhler
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International Workshop “Atmospheric Observations from the ISS”
06 – 08 February 2012
temperature
mixing ratio
• O3 heats stratosphere
• “lid” on troposphere
• absorbs & blocks UV radiation
• CO2 cools stratosphere
• O3,CO2 control temperature field and circulation
• O3 key for air-quality
• relatively easy to measure
ozone & climate
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anthropogenic changes
• CFCs, Halons, Cl & Br: fast increase until late
1990s, slow decrease after 2000; Vienna
Convention (1985), Montreal Protocol (1987 …)
• O3 declines until late 1990s, recovers since 2000?
• CO2 and other greenhouse gases increase, Kyoto
Protocol (1997, …, Paris 2015)
• N2O, NOx increase (fertilizers, traffic)
• CH4 increases (food production)
• climate, H2O change (CH4 oxidation)
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global ozone
• going up?
• because of chlorine?
WMO 2014
• going where?
• and why?
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global ozone - measurements
Weber et al., BAMS, 2016
• different answers for different data sets
• accuracy ≈2 to 5 DU
• need < 3 DU, > 20 years, < 1 DU / decade
• <1% + decades = challenging !!
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fingerprint of ozone depletion
8
1979 to 1997, SI2N, Harris et al., 2015 model simulated, WMO 2014
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fingerprint of ozone recovery
9
2000 to 2015/16, updated from WMO 2014 simulated
SBUV-based
SBUV-based
MLS-based
MLS-based OSIRIS-based
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fingerprint of ozone recovery
10
2000 to 2015/16, updated from WMO 2014 simulated
SBUV-based
SBUV-based
MLS-based
MLS-based OSIRIS-based
• currently only 3 instrument sets + stations
• ENVISAT died 4/2012
• SMR drifts
• GOME/2 nadir profiles drift, IASI ?
• OMI Harvard nadir profiles jump
• SBUV nadir 40+ years of experience
• MLS, OSIRIS well over lifetime
• SAGE III – ISS ?
• only OMPS continues!
• stations important!
• LIMB-gap after 201x !!!
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future ozone
11
ODS deplete O3
CO2 cools, increases O3
N2O depletes O3
CH4 increases O3
depending on altitude, latitude, seasonFleming ACP 2011, Portmann RoySoc 2012, WMO 2014
• going where?
• and why?
observations !!
Past: ODS world
Future: CO2, N2O,
CH4, ODS
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future ozone - dilemma
12
• complexity will increase
• strat. O3 / UV danger will likely decrease
• observing capabilities decrease• less redundancy
• fewer satellites & stations
• LIMB gap
• fewer ozone relevant trace gases
• lower accuracy• recovery / trends need <1% / decade
• blinder / less process understanding• Arctic ozone holes?
• tropical UTLS?
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summary = Vienna convention (1985)
Annex I: Research and systematic observations
1. … major scientific issues … modification:
a. …ozone layer… change in … UV-B … mankind;
b. …vertical distribution of ozone, … temperature structure …weather/climate
2. … Parties … shall co-operate in … research and systematic observations …
a. Research into the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere …
b. Research into health, biological and photodegradation effects …
c. Research on effects on climate …
d. Systematic observations on:
i. The status of the ozone layer (… total column content and vertical
distribution) … integration of satellite and ground-based systems …
ii. The tropospheric and stratospheric concentrations of source gases for the HOx,
NOx, ClOx and carbon families;
iii. The temperature from the ground to the mesosphere, utilizing both ground-
based and satellite systems;
13
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summary = Vienna convention (1985)
Annex I: Research and systematic observations
1. … major scientific issues … modification:
a. …ozone layer… change in … UV-B … mankind;
b. …vertical distribution of ozone, … temperature structure …weather/climate
2. … Parties … shall co-operate in … research and systematic observations …
a. Research into the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere …
b. Research into health, biological and photodegradation effects …
c. Research on effects on climate …
d. Systematic observations on:
i. The status of the ozone layer (… total column content and vertical
distribution) … integration of satellite and ground-based systems …
ii. The tropospheric and stratospheric concentrations of source gases for the HOx,
NOx, ClOx and carbon families;
iii. The temperature from the ground to the mesosphere, utilizing both ground-
based and satellite systems;
14
NECESSARY in 21st century as well
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Thank you!!
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BACKUP SLIDES
FEHP – 10/2015 16
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Future ozone changes N2O, CH4
more N2O → less ozone
N2O, CH4: RCP8.5 – RCP2.6 in 2090 CO2, other: SRESA1B ODS: WMO 2007 Revell et al., ACP, 2012
0
DU
-15
CH4 + NOx → O3 ↑ (smog)
CH4→ H2O ↑ → T↓ → O3 ↑
CH4+Cl → HCl → O3 ↑
CH4→ HOx → O3 ↓
more CH4 → more ozone
28
DU
8
N2O → NOx → O3 ↓R-CH3 + NOx → O3 ↑ (smog)
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Brewer Dobson Circulation
18
Models simulate increasing BDC on 50 to 100 year time-scale
upwelling
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drivers of future ozone changes
O3(2100) – O3(2000)ODS CO2 cooling
trop. warming FULL
Less ODS → more O3
more CO2 → strat. cools →
more O3
more GHG → troposphere
warms → enhanced ascent in
tropics → enhanced waves →
enhanced BDC
larger ozone columns at higher
latitudes
smaller ozone columns in
tropics?
Zubov et al. 2012
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1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
ozo
ne
an
om
aly
[%
]
19 km / 70 hpa
20°S to 20°N
SAGE V7.0, GOZCARDS, HARMOZUmkehr, Lidar, mWave, Sonde
CCMVal-2 ±2
Tropical ozone – no ODS, but climate
20
Models simulate increasing BDC – declining ozone in tropical LS
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Tropical ozone – no ODS, but climate
21
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
ozo
ne
an
om
aly
[%
]
19 km / 70 hpa
20°S to 20°N
SAGE V7.0, GOZCARDS, HARMOZUmkehr, Lidar, mWave, Sonde
CCMVal-2 ±2
Models simulate increasing BDC – declining ozone in tropical LS
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trend profile, Northern mid-latitudes
22
1998 to 2012, SI2N, Harris et al., 2015 2000 to 2015/6 updated from WMO 2014
SBUV-NASA
SBUV-NOAA
GOZCARDS
SWOOSH
SAGE-OSIRIS
SAGE-GOMOS
Umkehr
Sondes
SBUV-NASA, -NOAA, GOZCARDS, SWOOSHSAGE-OSIRIS, NDACC 3lidar, 2µwave, 1FTIR,CCMVAL2
-5 0 5 10ozone trend 2000 to 2015 [%/decade]
0
10
20
30
40
50
altitude [
km
]
1000
100
10
1
pre
ssure
[h
Pa]
35°N to 60°N
Harris et al., 2015
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changes in ozone profiles
observed & CCM simulated trends agree
simulations: ½ ODS decline + ½ cooling by increasing CO2
-4 -2 0 2 4 6ozone trend 2000 to 2013 [%/decade]
100
10
1
pre
ssure
[h
Pa]
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0ozone trend 1979 to 1997 [%/decade]
20
30
40
50
altitude [
km
]
Ozone Trend 35°N to 60°N
Observed (±2)
Modelled (±2ODS, GHG