satellite analysis branch 2008 year in review
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Satellite Analysis Branch 2008 Year in Review. Michael Turk (SAB) NOAA Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 2009. Milestones. Dec 2007 – SSD Management affirms findings of ATET—ADT unsuitable replacement for SAB subjective estimates - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Satellite Analysis Branch Satellite Analysis Branch 2008 Year in Review2008 Year in Review
Michael Turk (SAB)
NOAA Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
March 2009
Milestones• Dec 2007 – SSD Management affirms findings of
ATET—ADT unsuitable replacement for SAB subjective estimates
• Dec 2007 – Bulletin format changed to reflect that of JTWC and CPHC
• Summer 2008 – SAB disseminates near RT microwave (MW) fixes as experimental product
• Fall 2008 – SAB incorporates MW fixes in text bulletins for Eastern and Southern Hemispheres
• Jan 2009 – SAB offers MW analysis on case-by-case basis to JTWC, TCWCs and RSMCs by request
• Feb 2009 – SAB provides Dvorak and MW fixes in ATCF format pending testing at TPC
Milestones: Microwave FixesMilestones: Microwave Fixeshttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/2008/midata/archive.html
Sample MW History FileSample MW History File
Milestones: New Bulletin FormatMilestones: New Bulletin Format
WWPN20 KNES 160945 A. 25W (HAISHEN) B. 16/0857Z C. 27.5N D. 153.5E E. THREE/MTSAT F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS/WINDSAT H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 4/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF
2.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 3.0. FT BASED ON MET...ADT CI OF 2.9 AND 0739Z WINDSAT IMAGE DEPICTING A PARTIAL EYEWALL. ~TURK
I. ADDL POSITIONS 16/0324Z 26.9N 151.3E AMSU 16/0654Z 27.4N 152.4E SSMIS 16/0739Z 27.5N 153.2E WINDSAT
695
6
459
147
449
229
652
612
37
597
147
650
270
781
515
15
481
123
440
192
843
507
146
514
129
518
183
854
659
12
580
109
648
226
815
673
6
527
173
530
137
1054
912
76
463
200
535
247
799
511
112
716
186
544
273
992
594
60
443
281
707
290
832
756
63
624
236
714
177
812
643
53
540
173
574
222
843
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Nu
mb
er o
f C
lass
ifca
tio
ns
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 10-yrAvg
SAB Dvorak Classifications
Atlantic CPAC EPAC NIO SIO SPAC WPACG.Galllina SAB 01/01/09
3207
3382
2637
3094
2609
2851
30493100
32323334
3050
2008 Atlantic Intensity ErrorsBased on Recon
3
16
4241
20
0 00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Differences (SAB-Recon) in T-number
Nu
mb
er o
f O
ccu
rren
ces
N=122M. Turk SAB 11/10/2008
SAB 1995-2007 Mean35% within 1/4 T-no 80% within 3/4 T-no
SAB34% within 1/4 T-no 84% within 3/4 T-no
SAB Underestimated Intensity SAB Overestimated Intensity
SAB Performance 1995-2008 As Compared to Recon
35
54
40 26
35
21
46
44
30 33
42
33
22
33
8481
74
8987
6983
86
74
77
68
80
87
78
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Year
Per
cen
tag
e
Within 1/4 T-no Within 3/4 T-no
1995-2007 Average: 35% within 1/4 T-no; 80% within 3/4 T-no
M Turk SAB 9/20/08
Hanna (08L): “A plague o’ both your houses...”
• Both subjective and objective techniques performed poorly
• Cloud pattern did not correlate well with pressures measured by recon
• “...at times Hanna has resembled a subtropical cyclone.” TPC discussion 04/03Z
ADT: T1.9; SAB: T2.5; Recon: T3.9
Hanna (08L) Current Intensity Time Series
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1545
Z17
45Z
1515
Z17
15Z
1845
Z19
15Z
1945
Z17
45Z
1915
Z21
15Z
2315
Z06
45Z
0745
Z08
45Z
0945
Z11
15Z
1745
Z19
45Z
2115
Z23
15Z
0645
Z07
45Z
0845
Z10
45Z
1745
Z19
15Z
2115
Z06
45Z
0715
Z09
15Z
1115
Z14
45Z
1645
Z18
45Z
2015
Z01
15Z
0315
Z23
45Z
0645
Z
3131 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6
ADT CI Recon CI SAB CI
Product System Development & Implementation (PSDI) Program
• Global Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product
• AMSU-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation from Aqua and MetOp
• GOES-Based Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Product
• Operational Implementation of an Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Technique (eTRaP)
• Operational Implementation of the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique
Update on CIRA GOES-PSDI Project Extension5.2bFY03 Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) Product
Collection of developmental datasets needed toexpand current product to global domain has begun
Satellite water vapor imagery for IndianOcean & S. Hemisphere collected from • Meteosat 5 & 7 (centered at 63 E)
Nov 2005 – present• Meteosat 9 (centered at 0 E):
June 2007 – present
Starting collection and quality control of best tracks for Indian Ocean and Southern Hemisphere
Global GFS analyses already archived at CIRA back to 1982
Update on CIRA POES-PSDI Project( Request FY99-38) FY08 AMSU-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity
and Structure Estimation from Aqua and MetOp
• Retrieval codes for Aqua and MetOp AMSUs were obtained from SMCD
• Operational code has been modified to incorporate retrieval subroutines.
• The operational scripts are being modified by CIRA with coordination with NCO and TPC. Once completed the BUFR scripts will be modified by NCO
• Operational code will be finalized and tested once the operational data stream is finalized.
Project recently funded; will enjoy 24/7 support in 2 yrs:•May 2008: Development Phase Underway•May 2009: Pre-Operational Phase•June 2010: Operational Phase Begins
Multiplatform Surface WindMultiplatform Surface Wind
Experimental Production in Spring 2009
Deterministic and Probabilistic e-TRaPs for Rita landfall
≥100 mm ≥150 mm ≥200 mm
≥50 mm
ADT (v7.2.3) vs SAB A Homogeneous Comparison of CI Numbers
Against Recon for 2008 Atlantic Systems
4
12
20
3234
14
6
1 003
18
41 41
20
0 0 00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Difference in T-number
Nu
mb
er
of
Oc
cu
rre
nc
es
ADT-Recon SAB-Recon
Underestimates in Intensity Overestimates in Intensity
N=123M Turk SAB 11/13/08
ADT28% within 1/4 T-no 65% within 3/4 T-no
SAB33% within 1/4 T-no 83% within 3/4 T-no
ADT Entering New Developmental Phase:ADT Entering New Developmental Phase:
Incorporation of MW SignalIncorporation of MW Signal
Ike (09L): ADT Unable to Resolve Small EyeIke (09L): ADT Unable to Resolve Small Eye
• Small eye barely discernible in conventional and microwave imagery
• ADT used CDO cloud scene, resulting in falling T-numbers and underestimates in intensity
Ike (09L) Current Intensity Time Series
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1715
Z18
45Z
0645
Z14
15Z
1715
Z19
15Z
2115
Z23
15Z
0645
Z07
45Z
0945
Z11
15Z
1815
Z20
15Z
1815
Z20
15Z
2115
Z23
15Z
0645
Z07
15Z
0745
Z08
45Z
0945
Z11
15Z
1145
Z19
45Z
2115
Z23
15Z
0315
Z06
45Z
0715
Z08
15Z
0945
Z11
45Z
1345
Z17
15Z
1915
Z21
15Z
2315
Z02
15Z
0645
Z07
15Z
0915
Z11
15Z
1445
Z17
15Z
1915
Z20
45Z
2315
Z02
15Z
0345
Z06
45Z
0715
Z08
15Z
1145
Z13
15Z
1515
Z17
15Z
2045
Z22
15Z
2315
Z00
45Z
0145
Z02
45Z
0345
Z06
45Z
55666666777777888899999999991010101010101010101010111111111111111111111212121212121212121212121313131313
ADT CI Recon CI SAB CI
ADT Position EstimatesADT Position Estimates
Average ADT Position Error by Fix Method 2008 Atlantic Basin
10
16
17
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
COMBO FCST SPRL EXTRP TOTAL
Err
or
(nm
i)
M Turk SAB 11/16/08
N=34 N=204 N=96 N=0 N=334
Max: 36 Max: 62 Max: 64