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sarCevi

qarTuli bankebi

uZravi qonebis

saagentoebs

hgavdnen gv. 33

MADE IN GEORGIAaxali gamowvevis

winaSe gv. 5gasuli wlis bolosevrokavSirmasaqarTvelosTan daiwyomolaparakebebi Rrma dayovlismomcveliTavisufali vaWrobis(DCFTA) SeTanxmebasTandakavSirebiT.

ratom moxvdnen smiti, marqsi da

linkolni respublikuri

saavadmyofos urgentul

ganyofilebaSi gigisTan erTad gv. 8

ra gvWirdeba Tavisufali

vaWrobis SeTanxmebis

gasaformeblad gv. 6

saqarTvelo SesaZloa

azia-evropasa da azia-amerikas

Soris savaWro centri gaxdes gv. 13saqarTvelos premier-ministris gancxadebiT,Tavisufal vaWrobaze molaparakebebisdawyeba umniSvnelovanesi iqnebasaqarTvelos ekonomikuri winsvlisTvis .

finansTa saministros

momsaxurebis saagentoSi gasuli

welis Seajames gv. 14

siRaribe msoflios utevs gv. 16dRevandeli msoflioserT-erT umTavresproblemad kvlavsiRaribe da ekonomikuriuTanasworoba rCeba.maTTan brZolamTavrobebs SeuZliaTqveyanaSi SesabamisisagadasaxadopolitikiTa damiznobrivi fuladi transferebiT.

mosaxleobis 56%-s

internetiT arasodes

usargeblia gv. 19socialur qselebSi mwvavediskusia gamoiwvia evraziisTanamSromlobis fondisangariSma, romlis Tanaxmadac,saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 56%-sinternetiT arasodes usargeblia.

EBRD-ma somxeTis da azerbaijanis

ekonomikuri prognozi gaauaresa,

saqarTvelosi ki gazarda gv. 22

rogor vicxovrebT 2012 wels

gv. 26yvela prognozismixedviT, msofliossakmaod rTuli welidaudga. saerTaSorisovaWrobis gafarToebamda komunikaciebisganviTarebam samyaroerT mTlian organizmadaqcia. dedamiwisnebismier wertilSi ganviTarebulimovlenebi adre Tu gvian yvela qveyanaSiasaxvas hpovebs .

xili gaiafda,

xorcproduqtebi

gaZvirda gv. 282012 wlis ianvarSi2011 wlis ianvarTanSedarebiT inflaciisdonem saqarTveloSi0,5 procenti Seadgina.

ratom aweven

bankebi saprocento

ganakveTebs gv. 32dReisaTvis qarTul ekonomi-kaSi yvelaze dinamiurad gan-viTarebad sferod kvlav sa-banko seqtori rCeba. eqspertTaSefasebiT, omis Semdgom Seqm-nil mZime viTarebas bankebmawarmatebiT gaarTves Tavi.

BBC-m evrokavSirisgan

milionobiT dolaris miReba

aRiara gv. 51

OPEC — THE DOMINANT PLAYER OF THEWORLD OIL MARKET P. 80

mTavrobam soflis mxardaWeris

programa daamtkica gv. 36saqarTvelos mTavrobam soflismxardaWeris programa daamtkica, romlisdasafinasebladac 2012 wlis biujetidan50 milioni lari gamoiyofa.

mosaxleobis 70%-sTvis

samedicino momsaxureba

xelmiuwvdomelia gv. 39saqarTveloSi janda-cvis sistemis decen-tralizaciis mima-rTulebiT pirvelinabijebi 2006 welsgadaidga, ris Sedega-dac samedicino dawese-bulebebis didi nawilikerZo seqtorSi gadavi-da, sadazRvevo ko-mpaniebma ki, saxelmwifo sadazRvevoprogramis farglebSi, biujetidanmasStaburi dafinanseba miiRes.

saidan elodebian finansebs

samSeneblo kompaniebi gv. 42

arareitinguli evropa gv. 45

sakredito reinting-Si safrangeTi,avstria da kidevSvidi qveyana, romel-Ta Sorisac italiada safrangeTimoxvdnen, Standard &Poor’s (S&P)-is 2012

wlis 13 ianvris SefasebiT, CamoqveiTdnen.

saberZneTis defolti

aucileblad moxdeba gv. 46

azias umuSevroba

emuqreba gv. 48

msoflios wamyvaniekonomistebi 2012wels msoflioSiekonomikur rece-sias prognozireben.britaneli ekono-mistebis varaudiT,recesia gardauval-ia, maTi SefasebiT,momaval welsevropaSi mosalod-nelia warmoebisvardna da zrdistempebis Semcireba.

zrdis bumi

ganadgurebas

udebs saTaves gv. 55

2011 wlis SedegebismixedviT, amerikisekonomikam mniSvnelo-van zRvars gadaabijada qveynis saxelmwifovalma II msoflioomis Semdgom pirve-lad gadaaWarbaqveynis mSp-s .

saqarTvelos savaWro

partniori qveynebis ricxvma

istoriul maqsimums miaRwia gv. 61

„saqstatis~ cnobiT, 2011wlis monacemebiT, saqa-rTvelos sagareo sa-vaWro brunvam (araor-ganizebuli vaWrobis

gareSe) 9247 mln aSSdolari Seadgina, racwina wlis maCvenebel-Tan SedarebiT, 36%-iTgaizarda.

2012 - ekonomikuri apokalifsi

evropaSi gv. 62

msoflioekonomistebisprognozebiT, 2012wels globaluriekonomika msofliofinansur krizisTanmebrZolis rolSidarCeba

aSS-is

ekonomikis

mTavari

draiveri _

kerZo

moxmareba isev

moqmedebaSia

gv. 68

transnacionaluri

kompaniebis zegavlena erovnul

ekonomikaze gv. 73

80-iani wlebis dasaw-y i s id a n t uri stulitransnacionaluri ko-mpaniis zemoqm edebisekonomikuri proble-ma mecnierebis yura-dRebis centrSia.

5

mTavari Tema

asuli wlis bolosevrokavSirma saqarT-

velosTan daiwyo molapar-akebebi Rrma da yovlismom-cveli Tavisufali vaWrobis(DCFTA) SeTanxmebasTan dakav-SirebiT. eqpertebis Sefase-biT, procesi daaxloebiT we-liwadnaxevars gastans. Tum-ca xelSekrulebis sabolo-od gaformebis vadebi, aramxolod qarTul mxareze,aramed evrogaerTianebisSigniT mimdinare procese-bzec aris damokidebuli.

evrokavSiri-saqarTve-los biznes-sabWos (EUG-BC) generaluri mdivani,konstantine zaldasta-

niSvili: `rogorc mogex-senebaT, saqarTvelos daevrokavSirs Soris Rrma dayovlismomcveli Tavisufa-li savaWro sivrcis (DCFTA)SeqmnasTan dakavSirebiT mo-laparakebebis gaxsnis Sesax-eb gadawyvetileba evrokav-Sirma 2011 wlis 5 dekembersmiiRo. am gadawyvetilebaswin xangrZlivi da daZabu-li mosamzadebeli periodiuZRvoda. am procesSi, evrokav-Siris rekomendaciebis Sesas-ruleblad, qarTul mxaresdidi samuSaos Sesrulebamouwia iseT sferoebSi ro-gorebicaa: konkurenciispolitika; sursaTis uvneb-loba; vaWrobasTan dakavSi-reuli teqnikuri barierebida inteleqtualuri sakuT-reba. ganxorcielebuliRonisZiebebidan aRsaniSna-via: Sesabamisi uflebebiT

MADE IN GEORGIAaxali gamowvevis winaSemaka

RaniaSvili

aRWurvili Tavisufali vaW-robisa da konkurenciissaagentos, rogorc damou-kidebeli struqturis Camoy-alibeba; konkurenciis Sesax-eb kanonproeqtis momzadeba;sursaTis uvneblobis stra-tegiis da am sferoSi evro-kavSiris kanonmdeblobasTandaaxloebis programis momza-deba; ̀ sursaTis uvneblobisSesaxeb~ kanonis SeCerebulimuxlebis amoqmedeba; sursa-Tis uvneblobis, veterinari-isa da mcenareTa dacvissaagentos instituciuri gaZ-liereba; mrewvelobis pri-oritetuli sferoebis teqni-kuri regulirebis evrokav-Siris kanonmdeblobasTandaaxloebis samTavrobo pro-gramis damtkiceba; teqnikuri

da mSeneblobis inspeqtire-bis saagentos Camoyalibeba;inteleqtualur sakuTrebas-Tan dakavSirebuli Sesabam-isi kanonmdeblobis miReba;saavtoro uflebebis dacvisxelSewyobis mizniT, saav-toro uflebebis dacvisuwyebaTaSorisi sakoordina-cio sabWos Camoyalibeba dasxva.

saqarTvelos xelisu-flebis mier es samuSaoebirom ar Sesrulebuliyo, mo-laparakebebis procesi ardaiwyeboda. bunebrivia, mo-laparakebebis procesSi ki-dev bevri Zalisxmeva iqnebasaWiro evrokavSiris vaWro-basTan dakavSirebuli reg-ulaciebTan da standartebT-an saqarTvelos kanomnmde-

g

6 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1

blobisa da struqturebisdaaxloebis mizniT. ase rom,win daZabuli, magram ZalzesaWiro procesia.

s.e. _ rodisTvis SeiZ-leba amoqmeddes es reJi-mi da ras moutans escvlileba qarTul ekono-mikas?

k.z. _ es, albaT, yvelazexSiri kiTxvaa, romelicsaqarTvelos da evrokavSirsSoris Rrma da yovlismom-cveli Tavisufali savaWrosivrcis Seqmnis Sesaxeb mo-laparakebebis gaxsnis Sem-deg ismeba. unda aRiniSnosrom molaparakebebis vadebi

formalurad ar aris gansaz-Rvruli, Sesabamisad, dResZalze Znelia imisi Tqma,ramden xans gastans es pro-cesi da rodis amoqmeddebaevrokavSirTan TavisufalivaWrobis reJimi. Tavisufa-li savaWro sivrcis Seqmnazemolaparakebebi martivi da

Cqari procesi ar iqneba.evrokavSiris kanonmdeblo-basTan daaxloebis mizniT,saqarTvelos xelisuflebaskidev mravali sakanonmdebloTu struqturuli reformaeqneba gasatarebeli, biznesski axal biznesgaremosTanSegueba mouwevs. rogorc ukve

vTqviT, am molaparakebebs winramdenime wliani intensi-uri mosamzadebeli periodiuZRvoda. misi warmateba kididwilad iqneba damokide-buli mxareebis politikurnebaze da maT mzaobaze Sea-srulon Sesabamisi valde-bulebebi. molaparakebis

procesi garkveulivaldebulebebisaRebas da evropu-li ̀ TamaSis weseb-is~ aRiarebas gu-lisxmobs. ara mgo-nia, rom molaparake-bis mxareebs es kar-gad ar hqondeTgaazrebuli. mjera,rom molaparakebe-bis procesi, mosa-mzadebeli proces-

is msgavsad intensiurad wa-rimarTeba da SenarCunebu-li iqneba qarTuli mxarispolitikuri neba sakanonm-deblo da struqturulireformebis gatarebasTandakavSirebiT, rac molapar-akebis process udaod daaC-qarebs.

evrokavSiris kanonmdeblobasTan daaxloebis mizniT, saqarTve-

los xelisuflebas kidev mravali sakanonmdeblo Tu struqturuli

reforma eqneba gasatarebeli, bizness ki axal biznesgaremosTan

Segueba mouwevs. rogorc ukve vTqviT, am molaparakebebs win ram-

denime wliani intensiuri mosamzadebeli periodi uZRvoda. misi

warmateba ki didwilad iqneba damokidebuli mxareebis politikur

nebaze da maT mzaobaze Seasrulon Sesabamisi valdebulebebi. mo-

laparakabis procesi garkveuli valdebulebebis aRebas da evropu-

li `TamaSis wesebis~ aRiarebas gulisxmobs. ara mgonia, rom mola-

parakebis mxareebs es kargad ar hqondeT gaazrebuli

`

`

amerikasTan Tavisufali vaWrobis SesaxebxelSekrulebebis gasaformeblad saqarTvelo-Si sursaTis uvneblobis kanonmdebloba saer-TaSoriso standartebs unda akmayofilebdes, _amis Sesaxeb sursaTis eqspertTa nawili sau-brobs.

rogorc cnobilia, amerikis prezidentmasaqarTvelos pirvel pirTan TeTr saxlSi gama-rTul Sexvedraze qarTuli mxarisadmi erT-erTgzavnilad or qveyanas Soris Tavisufali vaWro-bis perspeqtiva daasaxela.

„sasursaTo eqspertTa asociaciaSi~ acxade-ben, rom bolo wlebSi qveyanaSi sursaTis uvneblo-bis kuTxiT bevri gakeTda, Tumca saerTaSorisokanonmdeblobasTan harmonizaciamde jer kidevSorsaa. asociaciis prezidentis TqmiT, amerikasTanda evrokaSirTan Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSek-rulebis gasaformeblad moTxovnebi identuria,winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi SeTanxmeba vermoxdeba.

ra gvWirdeba Tavisufali vaWrobisSeTanxmebis gasaformeblad

7

mTavari TemaGSP-iT miniWebul upirate-sobebs. evrokavSirTan vaWro-bisas arasatarifo bariere-bis daZlevas namdvilad Seu-wyobs xels saqarTvelosa daevrokavSirs Soris Rrma dayovlismomcveli Tavisufa-li savaWro sivrcis Seqmna,risi didi mniSvnelobac sa-dao ar aris da amas naTladxedavs qarTuli biznesi. ev-rokavSirTan Tavisufali sa-vaWro reJimis drouli amoq-medeba swored kerZo seqto-ris interesebSia, radgan xse-nebuli evropis bazarTanmWidro integrirebas, Sesa-bamisad ki investiciebis davaWrobis zrdas uzrunvely-ofs. bunebrivia, rom evro-kavSiris standarTebTandaaxloeba saSualo da gr-Zelvadian perspeqtivaSi,

biznesisTvis da zogadad qa-rTuli ekonomikisTvis, da-debiT Sedegs gamoiRebs. arunda dagvaviwydes, rom ev-rokavSirTan Tavisufali sa-vaWro sivrcis Seqmnis Sede-gad, saqarTvelosTvis msof-lios erT-erTi yvelaze di-di da mdidari evrokavSirisbazari srulad ̀ gaixsneba~.es, ra sakvirvelia, ar niS-navs, rom iq qarTuli produ-qcia upirobod moxvdeba. bu-nebrivia, evropul bazarzedasamkvidreblad Cven produ-qcias mZime konkurenciis da-Zleva mouwevs, magram, racmTavaria, amgvar konkurencia-Si monawileobis misaRebadqarTuli produqciisTvis sa-tarifo da arasatarifo ba-

rierebi moixsneba. mokled,amxela bazris da amxela Se-saZleblobebis gaxsnam rog-or SeiZleba biznesis ganvi-Tareba daamuxruWos?

Tumca, yoveilve zemoTTqmulTan erTad, isic undaaRiniSnos, rom qarTul biz-ness axal biznes garemosTanSegueba mouwevs, rac martiviprocesi ar iqneba, miT umetes,rom es procesi biznesismxridan garkveul kapitald-abandebebs moiTxovs. aq kideverTi ram minda aRvniSno. im-isaTvis, rom qarTuli bizne-si SedarebiT martivad See-guos axal garemos, ukve ametapidan aqtiurad unda iyosCarTuli evrokavSirTan Ta-visufali savaWro sivrcis

evrokavSiris sakmaod regulirebad bazarze SesaRwevad satar-

ifo barierebis garda, iseTi arasatarifo barierebis daZlevaaa

ucilebeli, rogoricaa standartebi, sanitaruli da fitosanitaruli

moTxovnebi da a.S. es ki namdvilad ar aris martivi saqme. swored

arasatarifo barierebis daZlevis sirTule gaxlavT imis erT-

erTi ZiriTadi mizezi, rom GSP-s sqemiT mosargeble qveynebi, maT

Soris saqarTveloc, srulad ver iyeneben GSP-iT miniWebul upi-

ratesobebs

``

konstantine

zaldastaniSvili

s.e. _ evrokavSirs re-gulaciebi xom ar daa-muxruWebs qarTuli biz-nesis ganviTarebas?

k.z. _ modiT, am SekiTx-vaze pasuxis gacema saqarT-velosa da evrokavSirs So-ris Rrma da yovlismomcve-li Tavisufali savaWro siv-rcis Seqmnis mniSvnelobi-dan daviwyoT. rogorc cno-bilia, saqarTvelo evrokav-Siris savaWro SeRavaTebiT_ preferenciaTa generali-zebuli sistemiT (GSP) 1995wlidan sargeblobs. 2005 wl-isivlisidan ki, saqarTvelosmieniWa GSP-is axali sqemis,GSP+-is beneficiaris statu-si. am sqemis mixedviT, sa-qarTveloSi warmoebuli 7200dasaxelebis produqti ev-rokavSiris saimporto gada-saxadisgan Tavisu-fldeba. Tumca, aR-niSnuli satari-fo SeRavaTebisminiWebas, evrokav-SirSi qarTuliproduqciis eqspo-rtis saTanadozrda ar gamouwve-via. misi mTavarimizezi ki is gax-lavT, rom GSP+ satarifobarierebis daZlevaSi kigviwyobs xels, magram ev-rokavSirSi produqciis eqs-portisaTvis es sakmarisi araris. evrokavSiris sakmaodregulirebad bazarze Sesa-Rwevad satarifo bariereb-is garda iseTi arasatarifobarierebis daZlevaa auci-lebeli, rogoricaa standa-rtebi, sanitaruli da fito-sanitaruli moTxovnebi daa.S. es ki namdvilad ar arismartivi saqme. swored arasa-tarifo barierebis daZlev-is sirTule gaxlavT imiserT-erTi ZiriTadi mizezi,rom GSP-s sqemiT mosargebleqveynebi, maT Soris saqarTve-loc, srulad ver iyeneben

yovelTviuri saerTaSoriso

samecniero-analitikuri

Jurn ali

gamomcemlebi:

Tavisufali ekonomikisa da biznesis

instituti

Cveni partnioria

mTels msoflioSi

INTERNET SECURITIES,INC.www.internetsec.com

referirebulia:

AN AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATIONPUBLICATION (JOURNAL OF ECONOMICLITERATURE)

teqnikuri universitetis

akademiuri sabWos mier

Jurnali `saqarTvelos

ekonomika~ Setanilia

sadisertacio sabWos debulebiT

gansazRvrul samecniero

Jurnalebis C amonaTvalSi .

Jurnalis xelmowerisaTvis da

SesaZenad mimarTeT saagentoebs:

s/s `macne~

k. gamsaxurdias gamz. 39, 42.

Sps `planeta forte~

al. puSkinis q. 4, diRmis masivi 4,

kv, 27 korp.

Sps `saq.presa~

didgoris q. 2a, konstituciis q. 6.

Sps ìnfo-2007~

a. wereTlis gamz. 142a.

Sps `pres-eqspresi~

Zm. kakabaZeebis q. 7,

iv. javaxiSvilis 86.

Sps `jeo-media~

g. CubinaSvilis q. 50.

Sps èlva servisi~

iosebiZis q. 49.

Sps ùaid distribuSeni~

marSal gelovanis 2.

vrceldeba istabliSmentis

siiT :

biblioTekebSi;

aRmasrulebeli xelisuflebis

struqturebSi;

parlamentSi;

korporaciul biznes-wreebSi;

diplomatiur korpusSi

ISSN 1512-4606universaluri aTobiTi klasifikacia

uak 479,22

s-323

sakatalogo indeqsi

17022

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mTavari redaqtori:Tsu profesoriemzar jgerenaia

samecniero redkolegia:

saq. mecn. akademiiiswevr-korespondentebi:

prof. leo Ciqava

prof. avTandil silagaZe;

ek. mecn. doqtorebi:

prof. Teimuraz beriZe

stu prof. givi gamsaxurdia

prof. gedeon xelaia

prof. revaz kakulia

Tsu prof. iakob mesxia

stu prof. evgeni baraTaSvili

prof. merab kakulia

prof. nugzar paiWaZe

prof. giorgi papava

prof. mixeil jibuti

prof. giorgi sigua

prof. Temur xomeriki

prof. eduard raupi

prof. elsan polusovi

prof. anton filipenko

prof. vladimer verguni

prof. vinsent o’braini

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yoveli Tvis 4 ricxvSi

redaqtoris sveti

gavxseni, mindoda karg rameze mefiqra _ sul erTia iqiT ra xdeba,mTavaria, Cven, saqarTveloSi xom arasodes ̀ araferi gvexeba~.

werili Financial Times-dan iyo. martin volfi werda _ The shocks inflicted onthe world by the upheavals of the past few years make a thoroughgoing overhaul urgent . gulimomikvda – isev im saSinel kiTxvas svamda kapitalizmis momavlis Sesaxebda xmamaRla pasuxobda safinaso ekonomikuri krizisidan gamomdnarekiTxvebs imis Sesaxeb, rom krizisi ar ganmeoredeboda Tu ara, sustiregulireba; is disbalansi ar iqneboda mosaxleobis fenebs Soris Tu ara,momxmareblis interesebis meti dacva rom iyos; 21-e saukuneSi saaqciosazogadoebebSi menejerebis diqtati rom ar iyos da aqciis mflobelTauflebebi qaRaldze, formalurad rom ar iyos mxolod dawerili;gadasaxadebs da maT ganawilebas sxvadasxva fenebs Soris srulyofasWirdeba (Tumca, piradad eWvi mepareba, aman gadawyvitos ejuTrTis yuTisproblema. ix. Jurnali ̀ saqarTvelos ekonomika~ 3/2009) da rom finansebiunda gaimijnos ekonomikisgan, radgan, misi azriT, yvela ubedureba iqidanmodis da is mkacrad unda gakontroldes. bolos Happy End daskvnasakeTebs, rom xarvezebis miuxedavad, kapitalizms ar aqvs alternativa da isyvelaze kargia, rac kacobriobas Seuqmnia!

vaaa!... gavogndi, saxtad davrCi. axla mivxdi, ratom moitexa Tumotexes xeli smits da ratom iyo marqsi eqimi aibolitis rolSi anraze wuxda ase linkolni _ imdeni varegulireT da artaxebi vuWireTam msoflio bazars, rom saxelmwifo regulireba pirvel planzegadavida, politika da ekonomika srulad da nayofierad SeerwnenerTmaneTs da gaSiSvlda maTi intimuri urTierTobebi. ukve RiadvereviT ara marto makroekonomikis, aramed mikroekonomikis sakiTxebSipolitikuri qulebis dasawerad, viTom socialuri TanasworobisaTvisviRebT biujetidan uzarmazar sagareo Tu saSiano valebs da CixSiSegvyavs msoflios wamyvani qveynebis ekonomikebi – Tan, sul ufro daufro meti gvinda davbegroT, rom mTavrobebis kontrolqveS metiresursi aRmoCndes da meti vali gvinda aviRoT. ver gavarkvieT, CineTirogor unda gaxdes 2016 wels sabazro ekonomikis qveyana an ruseTi? ansaerTod, rogor moxda, Cinuri socializmis gareSe, dasavluri kapital-izmi rom ver arsebobs?!

gaqra Tavisufali bazari Tu vaqrobT amdeni ̀ bail auTebiT~,es yvelaferi kerZo biznesis gansaxelmwifoebas xom ar niSanvs?sawyali smiti, gamaxsenda Cemi sizmari, amitomac moatexes esuxilavi xeli mTavrobis sruliad xiluli xeliT. amitom ebur-dRuneboda marqsi, axia Senze da SfoTavda linkolni, radgan manTavisufali idebiiT Sepyrobili Tavisufal bazarze dafuZnebu-li qveyana datova sicocxlis fasad da is aseTive msofliosbazisad moiazra.

sad midis msoflio, ratom ar vikvlevT kanonzomierebebs daZveli TeoriebiT ratom gvinda avxsnaT axali movlenebi, romlebicraodenobrivi cvililebis, teqnologiuri da gonebrivi revoluciisSedgia? ratom gvgonia regulireba, gapolitizireba da mTeli qveyneb-is erTian finansTa saministroebad gadaqceva saSveli.

fanjaraSi gavixede, sudarasaviT Tovlgadafarebul TbilisSiisev siCume iyo, kvira dilis simSvides manqanebis sayviris xmac ararRvevda, televizorSi ekonomikur forums gadmoscemdnen davosSi,sadac aseve ido Tovili, magram duRda iqauroba. xmas avuwie, daviZabeda vifiqre, imaT ician, is, rac me ar vici da iqneb, momcemen CemskiTxvebze pasuxs-Tqo. vusmine, da _ ara, araferi axali, Tovlic ki.

gvapatie, smit, Seni xelis motexva Cvenc Zalian gvtkiva!

28/01/12

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SeqmnasTan dakavSirebulimolaparakebis procesSi. rasakvirvelia, biznesma undaicodes, rom igi uSualod mo-laparakebis magidasTan veraRmoCndeba, es saqarTvelos

xelisuflebis da evrostru-qturebis warmomadgenelTaprerogativaa, magram mola-parakebis procesi mxolodmolaparakebis magidiT arSemoifargleba da am pro-cesSi biznessa da xelisu-

flebas Soris aqtiuri dia-logi unda arsebobdes. bi-znesi srulad unda iyos in-formirebuli molaparakebe-bis mimdinareobis Sesaxeb,raTa droulad moemzadosaxali realobebisTvis daTavisi mosazrebebi da re-komendaciebi miawodos mo-laparakebis mxareebs. amis-

aTvis ki biznesma evrokav-Siris savaWro kanonmdeblo-bis Sesaxeb codna unda aim-aRlos, raSic bizness rog-orc samTavrobo struqture-bi, aseve biznes asociaciebi

da evrokav-Siris specia-luri progra-mebi unda dae-xmaron. am mi-marTulebiTevrokavSiri-saqarTvelosbiznes-sabWoukve didi xa-nia muSaobs.Cven regula-rulad gamov-cemT publika-ciebs evroka-vSiris sava-Wro regula-ciebis Sesax-eb da Sesabam-is seminareb-sac vatarebT.rac Seexeba

saqarTvelosa da evrokav-Sirs Soris Rrma da yovlis-momcveli Tavisufali sava-Wro sivrcis SeqmnasTan da-kavSirebuli molaparakebisprocesSi biznesis CarTulo-bis xelSewyobas, evrokavSi-

ri-saqarTvelos biznes-sab-Wo amJamad specialuri sam-uSao jgufis Seqmnaze muSa-obs. samuSao jgufis mTavarifunqcia saqarTvelo-evrokav-Siris Tavisufali savaWroreJimis problematikaze mu-Saoba, saqarTvelos xelisu-flebis da evrostruqture-bis Sesabamis samsaxurebTan

mWidro urTierToba da maT-Tvis biznesis mosazrebebismiwodeba iqneba. samuSaojgufSi monawileobis mis-aRebad saqarTveloSi moqme-di sxva biznes asociacieb-is warmomadgenlebic iqnebi-an miwveulni, ramac samuSaojgufi ufro warmomdgenlo-biTi unda gaxados.

s.e. _ romeli dargeb-isTvis aris evropis ba-zari gansakuTrebiT pri-oritetuli dRes saqar-TveloSi? romel dargsaqvs evropul bazarzedamkvidrebis meti poten-ciali?

k.z. _ vfiqrob, rom sof-lis meurneobis produqcias,gansakuTrebiT TavisufalisavaWro reJimis amuSavebisSemdeg da swori marketing-is pirobebSi, aqvs kargiSansebi evrokavSiris baz-arze SesaRwevad. Zaliansainteresoa organuli (bio)produqtebis Tema. evro-kavSiris bazarze aseT produ-qtebze moTxovna sul ufroizrdeba da qarTvelma me-warmeebma es unda gaiTval-iswinon. aseve didia moTxo-vna qimiuri mrewvelobisproduqciaze (sasuqebi) da fe-

roSenadnobebze. sa-qarTvelos teqsti-lis warmoebis ka-rgi tradiciebiaqvs da Sesabamisiteqnologiebis dan-ergvis pirobebSi, amsferos produq-ciasac kargi per-speqtivebi SeiZle-ba gamnouCndes.

s.e. _ arsebobspesimisturi prognozi,romlis mixedviTac, saqar-Tvelo didad ver ixeir-ebs evrokavSirTan Tavis-ufali vaWrobis reJimiT,radgan aq naklebad iwar-moeba evrokavSirisaTvissaintereso produqcia.ras ityviT am mosazre-basTan dakavSirebiT?

evrokavSirTan Tavisufali savaWro reJimis drouli amoqmedeba

swored kerZo seqtoris interesebSia, radgan xsenebuli evropis ba-

zarTan mWidro integrirebas, Sesabamisad ki investiciebis da vaWrobis

zrdas uzrunvelyofs. bunebrivia, rom evrokavSiris standarTebTan

daaxloeba saSualo da grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi biznesisTvis da

zogadad qarTuli ekonomikisTvis dadebiT Sedegs gamoiRebs. ar

unda dagvaviwydes, rom evrokavSirTan Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis

Seqmnis Sedegad saqarTvelosTvis msoflios erT-erTi yvelaze didi

da mdidari, evrokavSiris bazari srulad `gaixsneba~

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11

yvelas egona, rom qarTuli Rvino ver gadarCeboda rusuli

embargos Semdeg, magram is gadaCa da Tanac ise, rom qarTuli

Rvinis xarisxi mkveTrad gaumjobesda da axla is saerTaSoriso

bazrebze iwyebs adgilis damkvidrebas. Tundac Cveni magaliTi

aviToT. jer kidev 3-4 wlis win, qarTuli bazris 95% importire-

bul Cais ekava, magarm Cven am konkurenciis pirobebSi mainc Sev-

ZeliT maRali xarisxis produqciis warmoebiT bazarze adgilis

damkvidreba

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`

mTavari Temak.z. _ pirvel rigSi,

getyviT, rom am pesimisturpozicias ver daveTanxmebi.Sevecdebi avxsna Cemi mosazre-ba. jer erTi, unda gavixse-noT, rom evrokavSiri amJamadsaqarTvelos yvelaze didisavaWro partnioria. marTalia,evrokavSiris bazarzes a q a r T v e lo seqsporti mniS-vnelovnad CamorCe-ba evrokavSiridanimports, magramisic faqtia, romeqsportis mocu-loba zrdis ten-denciiT xasiaTde-ba. es ki niSnavs,rom saqarTveloSidResac iwarmoeba evropulibazrisTvis saintereso pro-duqcia. albaT dameTanxmebiT,rom mas Semdeg, rac saqarTve-lo evrokavSirTan TavisufalsavaWro sivrces Seqmnis, risSedegadac saqarTveloSi bi-znesis warmoebis ̀ evropuliwesebi~ dainergeba da saqarT-veloSi warmoebuli produ-qciisTvis evrokavSiris baz-ari ̀ gaixsneba~, Cveni qveyanabevrad ufro saintereso iqne-ba ucxoeli investorebisTvis.mowinave teqnologiebisa dakapitalis Semodineba ki qvey-anaSi konkurentunariani,evrokavSirisTvis (da ara mar-to evrokavSirisTvis) sain-tereso produqciis Seqmniswinapiroba iqneba.

s.e. _ ramdenad arismzad qarTuli warmoebagzardil konkurencia-sTan gasamklaveblad?

k.z. _ dRes ra, ar arisRia qarTuli bazari evropu-li produqciisTvis? rogorcmogexsenebaT, saqarTvelos sak-maod Ria ekonomika da lib-eraluri savaWro politikaaqvs. 2006 wlidan saqarTvelo-Si gauqmebulia saimporto ga-dasaxadebi. ase rom, Tavisufa-li savaWro reJimi saqarTve-

los evrokavSirisTvis ukveminiWebuli aqvs da evropu-li produqcia saqarTveloSiyovelgvari barierebis ga-reSe Semodis, rasac ver vi-tyviT saqarTvelos produq-ciaze, romlisTvisac evrokav-Siris arasatarifo bariere-bis gadalaxva, xSir SemTxve-

vaSi, SeuZlebeli xdeba. ro-gorc zemoT aRvniSne, evro-kavSirTan vaWrobisas arasa-tarifo barierebis daZlevismTavari xelSemwyobi fa-qtori saqarTvelosa da ev-rokavSirs Soris Rrma da yov-lismomcveli TavisufalisavaWro sivrcis Seqmna iqne-ba. ase rom, evrokavSirTanTavisufali savaWro reJi-mis amoqmedeba saqarTvelosbizness pirobebs mxolod ga-uumjobesebs. amasTan erTad,rogorc zemoT aRvniSne,evrokavSirTan TavisufalisavaWro reJimis amoqmedebaudaod Seuwyobs xels qveya-naSi axali teqnologiebisSemotanas, investiciebis moc-

ulobis zrdas da konkuren-tunariani produqciis war-moebas. konkurentunarianiproduqcia ki mxolod saeq-sportod ki ar iqneba gamiz-nuli, aramed, pirvel rigSi,saqarTvelos bazarze moi-kidebs fexs da Caanacvlebsimports.

biznesis TvaliT

evrokavSirTan Rrma dayovlismomcveli Tavisufa-li vaWrobis SeTanxmebisgaformeba qarTvel mewar-meebs SesaZleblobas miscemsevropul bazarze sakuTariproduqcia yovelgvari kvote-bis, damatebiTi barierebisada gadasaxadebis gareSegaitanon. sazRvrebis gaxs-nisaTvis sxvadasxva dargiswarmomadgenlebi ukve emza-debian. rogorc `Cais mwar-moebelTa asocoaciaSi~ acxa-deben, dargi gansakuTrebiTemzadeba, imisaTvis, rom sa-zRvrebis gaxsnas qarTveliCais warmoeblebi momzade-bulebi Sexvdnen da axal ga-

2012 wels saqarTvelos mTavroba msoflio bazrebze specialursareklamo kampanias ganaxorcielebs, romlis mizanic imis Cvenebaiqneba, riT gansxvavdeba saqarTvelo sxvebisgan. is, rom fraza ̀ riTgansxvavdeba saqarTvelo~ mimdinare wlis mTavar gzavnilad iqceva,jer kidev gasuli wlis bolos gaxda cnobili.

saqarTvelos mTavroba muSaobs imaze, rom am Sinaarsis informaciamoxvdes dasavlur tele da beWdur saSualebebSi, maT Soris _ CNN-ze.saqarTvelos premieris gancxadebiT, msoflio ekonomikuri krizisisfonze saqarTveloSi ekonomikuri zrda fiqsirdeba, qveynissareitingo maCveneblebi umjobesdeba da es ganasxvavebs sa-qarTvelos sxvebisgan.

riT gansxvavdeba saqarTvelo


evrokavSiri-saqarTvelos biznes-sabWo amJamad specialuri sa-

muSao jgufis Seqmnaze muSaobs. samuSao jgufis mTavari funqcia

saqarTvelo-evrokavSiris Tavisufali savaWro reJimis problema-

tikaze muSaoba, saqarTvelos xelisuflebis da evrostruqturebis

Sesabamis samsaxurebTan mWidro urTierToba da maTTvis biznesis

mosazrebebis miwodeba iqneba. samuSao jgufSi monawileobis mis-

aRebad saqarTveloSi moqmedi sxva biznes asociaciebis warmomad-

genlebic iqnebian miwveulni, ramac samuSao jgufi ufro warmomd-

genlobiTi unda gaxados

`

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mowvevebTan gamklaveba maT-Tvis rTuli ar iyos.

Cais mwarmoebeli kompa-nia ̀ geoplanti~ ZiriTadadeqsportzea orientirebuli,gasaRebis erT-erTi bazariki evrokavSiria. ̀ geoplan-

tis~ direqtori, miSa Wku-aseli : `pirvel rigSi,Zalian misasalmebelia isfaqti, rom saqarTvelo-evrokavSirs Soris amoqmed-deba Tavisufali vaWrobisreJimi. es qarTvel eqspor-

tiorebs erTi-orad gaui-olebs saqmes. pirvel rigSi,imitom, rom evropul bazarzeSeRwevadoba da iq damkvi-dreba ufro advili iqnebaCveni brendebisaTvis da me-orec, gaizrdeba qarTulinawarmis konkurentunariano-ba saerTaSoriso doneze.

rac Seexeba konkretul-ad Cveni kompaniis gegmebs, amreJmis amoqmedebis gareSec,bunebrivia, rom yvela mewarme,gansakuTrebiT eqsportzeorientirebuli, cdilobsucxouri bazrebis wilis

sul ufro didi masStabebiTaTvisebas, rac niSnavs dam-atebiT Semosavalsa da dam-atebiT samuSao adgilebs ko-mpaniisaTvis. eqsportis ma-Cveneblis gazrdisken swraf-va Cveulebrivi movlenaa. ga-

monaklisi arc Cven varT. miTumetes, rom Cven TavidanveaviReT orientiri evropulbazarze. miuxedavad imisa, romjer sul raRac weliwadnax-evaria, rac bazarze varT, Cve-ni Cai ukve iyideba litvaSi,latviaSi, estoneTSi, ital-iaSi, poloneTSi, germaniasa

da evropis sxva qveynebSi.bolo 30 wlis manZilzesaqarTvelodan pirvelad CvengavitaneT dafasoebuli CaievropaSi eqsportze. evropa-Si Cai gasuli wlis seqtem-bridan gagvqvs, am periodosganmavlobaSi gavitaneT 15tona dafasoebuli Cai, mim-dinare wlis ganmavlobaSiki, jamSi, 40 tona qarTuliCais gatanas vgegmavT.

s.e. _ mzard konkuren-ciaze ras ityviT?

m.W. _ mas, visac konku-renciis eSinia, ar aris mzadim gamowvevebisaTvis, romel-sac Tanamedrove bazari me-warmeebs uyenebs. pirvel rig-Si, unda aRvniSnoT, rom nebi-smieri ekonomika unda iyoskonkurentuli, unda arsebob-des mZafri konkurencia nebi-smieri saxeobis warmoebaSi,winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, esekonomika daiRupeba. meore sa-kiTxia, Tu ramdenad TanabarpirobebSi iqnebian qarTvelida ucxoeli, igive _ evrope-li mewarmeebi. arsebobs ar-gumenti imis sasargeblod,rom aucilebelia adgilo-brivi warmoebis dacva, Tun-dac imis gamo, rom aq sapro-cento ganakveTebi biznes sex-ebze maRalia, globalur ba-

zrebTan SedarebiT,rac imas niSnavs, romqarTveli mewarmee-bisTvis warmoebisprocesi met danax-arjebTan aris dakav-Sirebulio. magramme amis sapirispi-rod maqvs argumen-ti _ samagierod,CvenTan iafia muSax-eli, ganviTarebul

qveynebSi ki muSaxelis da-qiraveba Zalian did danax-arjebTan aris dakavSirebu-li. ase rom, Cveni warmoebi-saTvis konkurenciis gazrdaukeTesic iqneba, gaizrdebaCveni nawarmis xarisxic daqarTveli momxmareblebisuflebebi metad iqneba dacu-

13

mTavari Temali. yvelas egona, rom qarTu-li Rvino ver gadarCebodarusuli embargos Semdeg, ma-gram is gadaCa da Tanac ise,rom qarTuli Rvinis xarisximkveTrad gaumjobesda da axlais saerTaSoriso bazrebze iw-yebs adgilis damkvidrebas.Tundac Cveni magaliTi avi-ToT. jer kidev 3-4 wlis win,qarTuli bazris 95% im-portirebul Cais ekava, magarmCven am konkurenciis pirobeb-Si mainc SevZeliT maRalixarisxis produqciis warmoe-biT bazarze adgilis damkvi-dreba~.

kidev erTi dargi, romel-ic ZiriTadad eqsportzeaorientirebuli da evropuliqveynebis bazars saeqsportorukaze mniSvnelovani adgiliuWiravs, aris Rvinis indus-tria. Tamar metreveli,kompania `TbilRvinos~ eq-sportis menejeri: `Tavisu-fali vaWrobis reJimi, ra Tqmaunda, iqneba Zalian didi plu-si kompaniebsTvis. savaWroprocedurebis gamartivebaiseT did bazarze, rogoricaris evrokavSiri, mniSvnelo-vnad gazrdis Cveni gayidveb-is moculobas. amJamad ̀ Tbil-Rvino~ saqarTvelos erT-erTi umsxvlesi eqsportior-ia. Cven sazRvargareT yovel-wliurad gagvaqvs daaxloe-biT 2 milioni boTli. aqedanevropaze jer mcire nawilimodis, magram, ra Tqma unda,vgegmavT eqsportis gazrdas,miT umetes, mas Semdeg, racevrokavSirsa da saqarTvelosSoris vaWrobis TavisufalireJimi amoqmeddeba~.

`samtrestis~ market-ingisa da saerTaSorisourTierTobebis ganyofi-lebis xelmZRvaneli xa-

tia beniZe : `2011 wlismonacemebis mixedviT, ev-rokavSiris mimarTulebiTeqsportirebul iqna 2998323boTli Rvino. mimdinare

saqarTvelos premier-ministris gancxadebiT, Tavisu-fal vaWrobaze molaparakebebis dawyeba umniSvnelovane-si iqneba saqarTvelos ekonomikuri winsvlisTvis. misiTqmiT, dRes saqarTvelo-evrokavSirs Soris TavisufalvaWrobaze molaparakebebis pirveli raundi daiwyo daperspeqtivaSi saqarTvelo SeiZleba gaxdes savaWro cen-tri, romelic azia-evropas da azia-amerikas Soris Camoy-alibdeba. aq bevr kompanias SeeZleba investiciebi ganaxo-rcielos, radgan vaWroba damatebiTi barierebisgangaTavisuflebuli iqneba.

saqarTvelo SesaZloaazia-evropasa

da azia-amerikas SorissavaWro centri gaxdes

wels mosalodnelia ammaCveneblis zrda. 2010 we-lTan SedarebiT, 2011-Si aR-iniSneba eqsportis 19%-ianizrda. 2012 wels mTeli rigiRonisZiebebia dagegmiliqarTuli Rvinis popular-izaciis mizniT, rac Cveniproduqciis cnobadobisa daeqsportirebuli raodenobiszrdas gamoi-wvevs. rac Se-exeba adgilo-briv bazarzegazrdil kon-kurencias, sa-qarTvelos ba-zarze ucxourimwarmoeblebisSemosvlis Se-saZleblobadidad ar Secv-lis zogad su-raTs, vinaidansaq arTvelomwarmoebeli qveyanaa da, Se-sabamisad, ZiriTadad, adgilo-brivi Rvino moixmareba. im-portirebuli Rvinos raode-noba adgilobriv bazarzeZalzed mcire procents Se-adgens~.

zogadi SefasebiT, evro-pis bazris aTvisebis gansa-kuTrebiT didi perspeqtiva

saqarTvelos soflis meur-neobis seqtors aqvs. savaWroreJimebis gamartiveba xelsa-yrel pirobebs Seqmnis ise-Ti produqciis eqsportis-Tvis, rogoricaa xilisa dabostneulis wvenebi, xil-fafebi, jemebi, xilis koncen-tratebi, dakonservebulinayofi da Rvino. amasTanave,

sawarmoebSi sawarmoo proce-sebSi saerTaSoriso standa-rtebis danergvas ramdenimeweli da seriozuli inves-ticiis moZieba dasWirdeba.ramdenime weli da didi fu-ladi saxsrebia saWiro sa-reklamo kampaniis warmoebi-sa da bazarze adgilis mop-ovebisTvisac.


011 wlis Tebervlid-an saxelmwifo stru-

qturebi, kerZo da fizikuripirebi, uZrav da moZrav qonebaswww.eauction.ge-s meSveobiTyidian. saqarTvelos finans-Ta saministros momsaxureb-is saagentos xelmZRvanelmagrigol baiburTma 10 ianvarssazogadoebas saagentos mu-Saobis 2011 wlis angariSi da2012 wlis samoqmedo gegmawarudgina.

angariSis mixedviT, sax-elmwifo qonebis realiza-ciis Sedegad miRebulmaTanxam gasuli wlis ganmav-lobaSi 6 667 000 lari Sead-gina. saxelmwifo biujetSi,miqceuli qonebis gankargvisSedegad, gadairicxa 3 099 000lari. 2011 wels momsaxureb-is saagentom gaxsna sami ax-ali savaWro obieqti: samtre-diaSi, axalcixesa da Tbi-lisSi, navaWrma Tanxam mxo-lod am sam maRaziaSi 203400 lari Seadgina.

ssip `saqarTvelos fin-ansTa saministros momsaxure-bis saagento~ momxmarebelssTavazobs saxelmwifosakuTrebaSi arsebuli qoneb-is SeZenis moxerxebul siste-

finansTa saministrosmomsaxurebis saagentoSi

gasuli welis Seajames

mas internet auqcionsa dainternet maRaziis saxiT. gar-da amisa, 2011 wlis ianvridanmomsaxurebis saagentom kerZopirebisa da kompaniebis qoneb-is realizaciac daiwyo.

dainteresebulma pireb-ma gasayidi qonebis Sesaxebinformacia momsaxurebissaagentos ofisSi undawaradginon da Semdgom Ta-vad saagento uzrunvelyofsinformaciis saitze gan-Tavsebas. rogorc saagento-Si aRniSnaven, saagentos pro-gramistebi ukve muSaoben spe-cialuri programis dawer-aze, romelis mixedviTac uax-loes xanebSi kerZo pirs ansubieqts sakuTari e.w. in-terfeisi eqneba da gasayidiqonebis Sesaxeb informaciasveb-gverdze Tavadve ganaTa-vsebs. momsaxureobis saagen-tos moTxovnis Tanaxmad, in-formaciis ganTavsebidanerTi Tvis vadaSi interne-tauqcioni unda dainiSnos.gasayidi qonebis fass Ta-vad mflobeli adgens da ara

eqspertizis erovnuli biuro,rogorc es saxelmwifoqonebis Sefasebisas xdeba.

momsaxurebis saagentoseleqtronul portalzewww.eauction.ge _ dReisaTvisdaregistrirebulia 16 189rezidenti fizikuri piri,997 rezidenti iuridiulipiri, 934 ararezidenti fiz-ikuri piri da 62 ararezi-denti iuridiuli piri. mom-saxurebis saagentos part-niori gaxda 390 iuridiulida 90 fizikuri piri. 2011wels www.eauction.ge-ze gay-iduli lotebis raodenoba15000 gadascda, veb-gverdzebrunvam 240 000 000 Seadgina,xolo vizitorTa raode-nobam 1 802 000-s gadaaWarba.

saagentos warmomad-genelTa gancxadebiT, saitisvizitorebis yvelaze didiraodenoba, saqarTvelos Sem-deg ruseTze modis. saitsyovedRiurad saSualod 7000damTvalierebeli hyavs, agvis-tos TveSi saits stumrobdasaqarTvelodan _ 176 704,

2

van

baiburTi

http://www.eauction.ge



15

ruseTidan _ 1 487, saberZ-neTidan _ 565, iordaniidan_ 510, aSS-dan _ 498, germani-idan _ 310, espaneTidan _ 280,poloneTidan _ 237, brit-aneTidan _ 221, azerbaijan-idan _ 197, somx-eTidan _ 142 dasxva qveynebidan _13 910 mnaxveli.

SegaxsenebT,rom noembris Tvi-dan, momsaxurebissaagentom daiwyosaxelwifo sakuT-rebaSi moqceuliqonebis gankargvis axaliformis _ lizingis gamoy-eneba. momxmareblebi, rom-lebic ver axerxebdnen Zvi-radRirebuli teqnikisa damanqana-danadgarebis SeZenas,dReisaTvis eZlevaT saSuale-ba, gamoiyenon gankargvis axa-li forma _ lizingi. proeq-tis avtorTa SefasebiT, aRniS-nuli gankargvis forma metadxelsayreli iqneba mcire da

saSualo biznesis warmomad-genelTaTvis. Tumca, rogorcwlis Semajamabel SexvedrazebaiburTma aRniSna: ̀ proeqtisamoqmedebis Semdeg sul oTxiloti gavaketeT da, simarTle

giTxraT, daintereseba aryofila. magram es CvenimuSaobis axali mimarTule-baa da velodebiT, rom uax-loes periodSi dainterese-ba investorebis mxridan ammimarTulebiT gaizrdeba.~

2011 wlidan nebismiermsurvels mieca saitidan sa-banko plastikuri baraTisSekveTis SesaZlebloba, veb-gverdidan aseve SesaZlebe-

li gaxda liberTi bankisganvadebis miReba. sagaran-tio Tanxis gadaxda 2011wlidan mxolod sabankoplastikuri baraTis meSve-obiT xorcieldeba, aseve

SesaZlebeli gaxda eleqt-ronuli sabanko garantiisgaaqtiureba. 2012 wlidansaagentos mTavar priorite-tebs warmoadgens eleqtro-nuli servisebis moderniza-cia/ganviTareba da dainter-esebuli fizikuri da iurid-iuli pirebis qonebis ele-qtronuli auqcioniT gan-kargvis procesis gamartive-ba.

momsaxurebis saagentom daiwyo saxelwifo sakuTrebaSi moqceu-

li qonebis gankargvis axali formis _ lizingis gamoyeneba. momx-

mareblebi, romlebic ver axerxebdnen ZviradRirebuli teqnikisa

da manqana-danadgarebis SeZenas, dReisaTvis eZlevaT saSualeba, gam-

oiyenon gankargvis axali forma _ lizingi. proeqtis avtorTa

SefasebiT, aRniSnuli gankargvis forma metad xelsayreli iqneba

mcire da saSualo biznesis warmomadgenelTaTvis

`

`

ekonomikuri politika

yazaxma investorebma likaniskompleqsis wili daTmes

sastumro kompleqsi, romelic erT-erT yvelaze cnobildasasvenebel kurort likanSi yazax investorebs unda ae-SenebinaT, nawilobriv saqarTvelos mTavrobis mier dafuZneb-uli sapartnioro fondis sakuTrebaSi gadavida. gavrcele-buli informaciiT, saubaria sanatorium likanis 50 procen-tian wilze. Tumca, qarTuli mxare ar akonkretebs, ra Tanxagadauxada ̀ sapartnioro fondma~ yazax investorebs istori-uli kurortis dasabruneblad an saerTod gadauxada Tuara.

borjomis gamgebeli radio ̀ komersantTan~ mxolod imisSesaxeb saubrobs, rom yazaxi investorebi likanSi 4-varskv-laviani sastumros mSeneblobas 2012 wlis oqtomberSi daas-ruleben. yazaxebi sastumrosTan dakavSirebiT aRebul valde-bulebas asruleben da mSeneblobas 24-saaTian reJimSi awar-moeben.

rogorc cnobilia: likanis sanatoriumi yazaxebs 2006wels gadaecaT. Tumca, mas Semdeg kurortis ganaxleba vermoxerxda, ris gamoc saqarTvelos prezidentis kritika in-vestorebma ramdenjerme daimsaxures. gakeTda mini-Snebac, rom Tu yazaxebi droulad ar warmoadgen-dnen kurortis gegmas, obieqti CamoerTmeodaT.


Revandeli msofl-ios erT-erT umTav-

res problemad kvlav siR-aribe da ekonomikuri uTana-sworoba rCeba. maTTan brZo-la mTavrobebs SeuZliaTqveyanaSi Sesabamisi sagada-saxado politikiTa da miz-nobrivi fuladi transfer-ebiT. bolo 2 aTwleulisganmavlobaSi am kuTxiT war-matebuli reformebi ganax-orcieles samxreT amerikis,gansakuTrebiT ki, Cilesa dabraziliis mTavrobebma. Tu-mca ganviTarebul qveynebT-an SedarebiT laTinuri ame-rikis qveynebSi ekonomikuriuTanasworoba mainc didia.OECD-is axali angariSis mi-xedviT, CileSi OECD-is qvey-nebs Soris, ekonomikuri uTa-nasworobis maCvenebeli yve-laze maRalia. rac SeexebasiRaribes, maCveneblis mixed-viT, romelic zomavs mosax-leobis im wils, romelsacsaSualo Semosavalze nakle-bi Semosavali aqvs (brazil-

ias kidev ufro uaresi maC-veneblebi aqvs, magram isOECD-is wevri ar aris, amit-om ver moxvda am reitingSi),Cile aris bolodan mesame,

siRaribemsoflios utevslevan

asaTiani

meqsikisa da israelis win.da es miuxedavad imisa, rombolo wlebSi ganxorciele-buli jandacvis, ganaTlebi-sa da socialuri dacvis pro-gramebi Cilesa da brazil-iaSi warmatebulad aris Se-fasebuli.

es imas niSnavs, rom sam-xreT amerikis qveynebSi siR-aribisa da ekonomikuri uTa-nasworobis maCvenebeli ram-denime wlis win kidev ufro

sagangaSo niSnulebze iyo.laTinuri amerikisa da kari-bis zRvis auzis qveynebisgaerTianebuli erebis ko-misiis mier 2011 wlis bo-

los gamoqveynebuli monace-mebis mixedviT, 2010 welsregionis mosaxleobis 31.4%siRaribis zRvars qvemoT cx-ovrobda. 2008 wels es ma-Cvenebeli 33%, xolo 2009wels 33.1% iyo. 1990-ian wleb-Si siRaribis maCvenebeli48.4%-s Seadgenda. radikalu-ri nabijebis gadadgma re-gionis qveynebma siRaribisSesamcireblad 1999 wlidandaiwyes. mniSvnelovani cv-

lilebebi moxda2000 wlidan, rocaqveynebis saTaveSimemarcxene mTa-vrobebi movidnen.am droisaTvis gan-skuTrebiT rTulviTarebaSi iyvenenCile da brazilia.

dRes am oriqveynis gamocdil-eba siRaribesa da

ekonomikur uTanasworobas-Tan brZolaSi samagaliToa.bolo wlebSi maT reforme-bis warmatebas orma mniSv-nelovanma faqtormac Seuw-

bolo wlebSi ganxorcielebuli jandacvis, ganaTlebisa da

socialuri dacvis programebi Cilesa da braziliaSi warmatebu-

lad aris Sefasebuli. es imas niSnavs, rom samxreT amerikis qvey-

nebSi siRaribisa da ekonomikuri uTanasworobis maCvenebeli ram-

denime wlis win kidev ufro sagangaSo niSnulebze iyo. laTi-

nuri amerikisa da karibis zRvis auzis qveynebis gaerTianebuli

erebis komisiis mier 2011 wlis bolos gamoqveynebuli monaceme-

bis mixedviT, 2010 wels regionis msaxleobis 31.4% siRaribis zR-

vars qvemoT cxovrobda

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`d

17

yo xeli: 2010 wels laTinu-ri amerikis mSp 5.9%-iT gai-zarda, rac imis maniSnebe-lia, rom 2008 wlis finan-surma recesiam regionzemcire gavlena moaxdina. 2009wels ki regionis mSp mxo-lod 1.9%-iT Semcirda. udi-desi mniSvneloba hqonda Ra-ribebisaTvis gankuTvnil mi-znobriv programebs. zogi-erTma qveyanam, braziliisada kolumbiis CaTvliT, ukvemoaxdina uRaribesi mosaxle-obisTvis gamiznuli axaliprogramebis prezentacia.Tumca, eqspertTa SefasebiT,miznis miRweva mxolod sax-elmwifo biujetidan dafi-nansebuli socialuri pro-gramebiT SeuZlebelia. amisparalelurad aucilebelia,qveynis mwarmoeblurobiszrda da ganaTlebis xar-isxis amaRleba. regionismosaxleobis 13% kvlavac

ukidures siRaribeSi cx-ovrobs.

uTanasworobasa da siR-

aribesTan brZola sxvadasx-va qveynebs sxvadasxvagavariwarmatebiT gamosdis. zogi-

erTma qveyanam maCveneblebibevrad gaaumjobesa sxvebT-an SedarebiT. jinis indeq-

si, romelic ama Tu im qvey-anaSi uTanasworobis maCve-nebels zomavs, qveynebismdgomareobas 0-dan 1-mdekoeficientiT afasebs. uru-gvais jinis koeficienti 2009wels iyo 0.433, venesuelasiki 0.412, maSin, roca aSS-Sies maCvenebeli 0.468 iyo. pe-ruSi jinis koeficienti amdroisaTvis iyo 0.469, sal-vadorSi – 0.478, ekvadorSi _0.500 da kosta-rikaSi _ 0.501.amasTanave, 2009 wels siR-aribis maCvenebeli argen-tinas, Cilesa da urugvaisnaklebi hqonda, vidre aSS-s.marTalia, siRaribis Semcir-ebaSi regionis saerTo ek-onomikurma zrdam didi wv-lili Seitana, Tumca, mecni-erTa azriT, aranaklebimniSvnelobisaa is, rom Semo-savlebis gadanawilebis drosuzarmazari ufskruli, romel-ic maRalanazRaurebad da da-balanazRaurebad dasaqme-bulebs Soris arsebobda, amqveynebSi nel-nela mcirde-ba. amas ki qveynebma ganaTleb-is xarisxis gaumjobesebiT mi-aRwies, aseve, im programebiT,


FAO sakvebi produqtebis fasebis indeqsi

ian.

Teb.

mar.

apr.

mai.

ivn.

ivl

.

agv.

seq.

oqt.

noe.

dek.


romlebic dabalkvalifici-uri kadrebis gadamzdebasa damaTTvis fuladi transfere-bis saxelmwifo biujetebidangamoyofas isaxavda miznad. ammxriv, gansakuTrebiT aRsani-Snavia braziliisa da CilesmagaliTebi.

braziliuri

progresi

brazilia istoriuladxasiaTdeba ekonomikuri uTa-nasworobisa da siRaribismaRali doniT. 2001 welsbraziliis jinis indeqsi

0.558 iyo. marTalia, 2009 wl-isaTvis es maCvenebeli 0.537-mde Semcirda, magram didadsaxarbielo mdgomareobazearc es cifri metyvelebs. 2001wels braziliis mosaxleo-bis 37.5% siRaribeSi, maTganukidures siRaribeSi ki 13.2%cxovrobda. 2009 wlisaTvissiRaribe Semcirda 24.9%-mde,ukidures siRaribeSi mcx-ovrebTa maCvenebeli ki _ 7%-mde. braziliis mTavrobisumTavresi mizani 2015 wlam-de ukidures siRaribeSi mcx-ovrebi mosaxleobis raode-nobis ganaxevrebaa. 2001-2009wlebSi braziliaSi siRa-ribe 54%-iT Semcirda, eko-nomikurma zrdam ki 46% Sead-gina. 2001-2007 wlebSi Ra-ribi mosaxleobis Semosava-

li yovelwliurad7%-iT izrdeboda.maSin, roca mTli-anad SemosavlebiqveyanaSi saSualod2.5%-iT, mdidrebisSemosavali ki mxo-lod 1.1%-iT izr-deboda.

FAO sakvebi produqtebis fasebis indeqsi

nominaluri

realuri

saqarTvelos kanonmdeblobaSi Sesuli cv-lilebis Tanaxmad, 112-ze darekva fasiani iqneba.mTavrobis dadgenilebiT, satelefono nomersyovelTviurad daericxeba „112" momsaxurebis safa-suri, rac iuridiuli piris SemTxvevaSi 50 TeTri,xolo indmewarmis da fizikuri piris SemTxvevaSi_ 20 TeTria.

fiqsirebuli qselidan 112-ze darekvis SemTx-vevaSi, momxmarebeli gadasaxads yoveli Tvis bo-los, saabonentosTan erTad gadaixdis, xolo mo-bilur operatorebs nomris momsaxurebis Rire-buleba angariSidan CamoeWrebaT. 112-is saSualebiTSesaZlebeli iqneba saswrafo samedicino daxmare-bis, saxanZro da samaSvelo samsaxurebis gamoZaxe-ba.

Tbilisis sakrebulos umciresobis nawiliaRniSnul dadgenilebas socialurad gaumarTlebel iniciativas uwodebs da acxadeben, rom gadaude-beli daxmarebis gamoZaxebaze fasis dadeba mis Sinaarss ewinaaRmdegeba. 112 amerikuli 911-isanalogis Seqmnas iTvaliswinebs, Tumca, 911-ze wvdoma qarTuli 112-sgan gansxvavebiT yvelana-iri dabrkolebis gareSe xdeba.

moqalaqeebi gadaudebel daxmarebasufasod ver gamoiZaxeben

umwvavesi problemaa isic, rom umuSevarTa socialur dacvis

muxli saqarTvelos socialuri dacvis funqcionalur ganawileba-

Si saerTod ar aris Cadebuli. qveyanaSi umuSevarTa raodenoba ar

iklebs, arc dasaqmebis politika atarebs aqtiur xasiaTs. maSin,

roca specialistebi umZimesi socialuri fonis mogvarebis erT-

erT gzad saqarTveloSic samuSao kadrebis gadamzadebasa da bi-

znes-unarebis gamomuSavebaSi xedaven

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19

braziliis mTavrobam Se-sabamisi saganmanaTlebloprogramebisa da umaRlesi ga-naTlebis xarisxis amaR-lebiT SeZlo mosaxleobisSemosavlebs Soris uzarmaz-ari ufskrulis Semcireba.amasTanave, saxelmwifo so-cialuri programebis xarj-ze Semosavlebi gaezardaT so-cialurd daucvel fenebsada umuSevvrebs. magram prob-lemaa is, rom sax-elmwifo transfe-rebis wili, mosa-xleobis mTlianSemosavlebSi Zal-ian maRalia, daax-loebiT 80%. racimas niSnavs, rombraziliaSi, ekono-mikuri uTanaswo-robis SemcirebaSilomis wvliliswored saxelmwifo socia-lur programebs uWiravs. msx-vili investiciebia Cadebu-li ̀ adamianuri ganviTareb-is~ programebSi. 2004-2006wlebSi programebSi CarTu-li ojaxebisTvis gamoyofili

saprogramo Tanxebi 6.5 mil-ionidan 11 milionamde gaizr-da. programam moicva 12 mil-ionze meti ojaxis warmomad-geneli. 2011 wels amoqmeddakidev erTi axali programa,romlis mTavari mizani arisRaribi ojaxebis xelmisawv-domobis gazrda xarisxianjandacvasa da ganaTlebaze.gasul wels programaSi dam-atebiT CaerTo 1.3 milioni

bavSvi. ganaTlebis xelmis-awvdomobis maCvenebeli qvey-anaSi mniSvnelovnad gaizr-da. 2000-2008 wlebSi saSua-lo skolis kursdamTavre-bulTa raodenoba 68.5%-dan81.5%-mde gaizarda.

Cile _ samxreT

amerikis OECDbraziliisa da laTi-

nuri amerikis sxva qveynebT-an SedarebiT Cile istori-ulad xasiaTdeba siRaribisada ekonomiuri uTanasworo-bis naklebi doniT. XX-XXIsaukuneebis mijnaze Cilemdidi ekonomikuri zrda gan-icada, ramac gadamwyveti

roli Seasrula siRaribisSemcirebaSi. siRaribeSi mcx-ovrebi mosaxleobis raode-noba CileSi 2000-2009 wleb-Si 20-dan 11%-mde Semcirda.SedarebisaTvis _ 2009 welsaSS-is siRaribis maCvenebe-


braziliis mTavrobam Sesabamisi saganmanaTleblo programebi-

sa da umaRlesi ganaTlebis xarisxis amaRlebiT SeZlo mosaxleo-

bis Semosavlebs Soris uzarmazari ufskrulis Semcireba. amasTanave,

saxelmwifo socialuri programebis xarjze Semosavlebi gaezard-

aT socialurd daucvel fenebsa da umuSevvrebs. magram problemaa

is, rom saxelmwifo transferebis wili, mosaxleobis mTlian Semo-

savlebSi Zalian maRalia, daaxloebiT 80%. rac imas niSnavs, rom

braziliaSi, ekonomikuri uTanasworobis SemcirebaSi lomis wv-

lili swored saxelmwifo socialur programebs uWiravs

`

`socialur qselebSi mwvave diskusia gamoiwvia evraziis Tanam-

Sromlobis fondis angariSma, romlis Tanaxmadac, saqarTvelos mo-saxleobis 56%-s internetiT arasodes usargeblia. igive angariSismixedviT, informaciis miRebis mTavari wyaro saqarTveloSi televi-ziaa. yvelaze xSirad mosaxleoba informacias `rusTavi2~-isa da`imedisgan~ igebs, sazogadoebrivi mauwyebeli ki ierarqiaSi mesameadgilzea.

socialuri qselebis momxmareblebis erTi nawilis SefasebiT,angariSi ararealisturia, radgan, maTi azriT, internetiT mosaxleo-bis gacilebiT meti procenti sargeblobs.

realisturad afasebs evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis angariSs`gruzia onlaini~ _ im 56% procentSi, romelsac interneti arasdrosgamouyenebia, regionebis mosaxleoba (radgan iq jer kidev dgas inter-netizaciis problema), agreTve diasaxlisebi igulisxmeba. garda amisa,saqarTveloSi 50-55 wels gadacilebuli adamianebi naklebad sarge-bloben internetiT da maTi mxolod 5% Tu iyenebs globalur qsels. rogorc kvlevam aCvena,internetiT mosargeble 45%-dan, 70% internets mxolod socialuri qselebiT sargeblo-bisTvis iyenebs da ara informaciis misaRebad.

mosaxleobis 56%-s internetiTarasodes usargeblia


siRaribis maCvenebeli Cvens qveyanaSi erT-erT mTavar prob-

lemad rCeba. 2012 wels saqarTvelos mTvarobis mier prioritetu-

lad deklarirebul sam ZiriTad mimarTulebas Soris, ganaTlebasa

da soflis meurneobasTan erTad, jandacva da socialuri sferoc

Sedis. magram, sainteresoa, ramdenad Tanmimdevrulia saqarTvelos

mTavrobis socialuri politika?

`

`li 14.3% iyo.

iseve rogorc brazil-iaSi, socialuri programeb-is danaxarjebi CileSicmniSvnelovnad gaizrda. dan-axarji 1 sul mosaxleze 1998wels iyo 686 aSS dolari,2009 wels ki _ es maCvenebe-li 945 aSS dolaramdegaizarda. gaizarda ga-

naTlebis sistemis dafin-ansebac. Tu 1998 wels ga-naTlebaze mSp-is 3.6% ixar-jeboda, 2009 wels es maCevne-beli 4.3%-mde gaizrda. ga-naTlebis xarisxis gazrdamki xeli Seuwyo maRal kval-ificiur da dabal kvali-fiuciur muSaxelis xel-fasebs Soris gansxvavebisSemcirebas.

eqspertTa SefasebiT, esimas ar niSnavs, rom region-is qveynebma jandacvisa da

socialuri sferos re-formebs didi yuradRebaaRar miaqcion da/an arsebu-li programebi Seamciron da/an sxva alternatiuli pro-gramebis ganxorcielebazear ifiqron. radgan, miuxeda-vad warmatebuli statis-tikisa, siRaribe regioniskvlavac mTavar gamowvevad

rCeba. ganviTarebul qvey-nebTan SedarebiT CilesmTavrobis socialuri dan-axarjebi mcirea _ mSp-is 16%,maSin, roca OECD-is saSua-lo maCvenebeli 27%-ia.eqspertTa SefasebiT, so-cialuri programebis pa-ralelurad, ufro efeqtianisagadasaxado politikis ga-tarebaa aucilebeli imis-aTvis, rom ufro metad Sem-cirdes ekonomikuri uTanas-woroba da siRaribe. ukeTe-

si samuSao pirobebi da ma-Rali xarisxis umaRlesi ga-naTleba aris samuSao Zalisstimulirebisa da ekono-mikuri zrdis winapiroba.korporaciebisa da indi-videbis mier gadasaxadebi-saTvis Tavis arideba mSp-s2.5%-iT amcirebs. Ciles eko-nomika gasul wels 6.6%-iTgaizarda, magram wels nava-raudevia mxolod 4%-ianizrda.

CineTSi dRe-Ramis

minimaluri

saarsebo minimumi

1 dolaramde

izrdeba

CineTi gegmavs, sofleb-Si sasicocxlo minimumisoficialuri done dRe-Rame-Si erT dolaramde gazar-dos. amis Sesaxeb saagento„sinhua~ ityobineba. amasTan,wliuri saarsebo minimumi200 dolaridan 360 dolaram-de moimatebs.

axali maCvenebeli 92%-iT aRemateba CineTis xe-lisuflebis mier dadgenilzRvars, romelic amJamad mo-qmedebs, Tumca mainc ver ew-

eva msoflio bank-is standartebs (1,25dolari dReSi) daaSS-is maCvenebels,sadac wliuri saa-rsebo minimumi sam-suliani ojaxisT-vis 17,347 dolar-ia.

saarsebo minimumis TiT-qmis gaormageba CineTSi Ra-ribebis oficialur maCvene-bels 100 milion adamianam-de gazrdis. Sesabamisad,saWiro iqneba centralurimTavrobisgan axali finan-suri daxmareba. pekiniserT-erTi universitetisprofesoris li Sinis prog-noziT, wliuri saarsebo min-imumis 310 dolaramde gazr-dis SemTxvevaSi, CineTSiRaribebis ricxvi 130 mil-

21

ionamde moimatebs. calkeu-li eqspertebi aRniSnaven,rom CineTi xelovnurad am-cirebs wliuri saarsebominimumis maCvenebels, raTasazogadoebis yuradRebasiRaribesTan brZolaSimiRweul warmatebebs miapy-ros.

CineTis swrafma ekonomi-kurma zrdam bolo sami aT-wleulis ganmavlobaSi mil-ionobiT adamians siRaribis-gan Tavis daRwevis saSuale-ba misca, magram amavdrouladRaribebsa da mdidrebs Sor-is qonebrivi gansxvaveba kidevufro gaizarda.

ra xdeba

saqarTveloSi

amJamad, saqarTvelos ji-nis koeficienti 40.8%-s ud-ris. aRsaniSnavia,rom saqarTvelosindikatori laT-inuri amerikisqveynebis indika-torebis msgavsia(venesuela 43.4, ur-ugvai 47.1, kolumb-ia 58.5). am qveynebi-saTvis damaxasia-Tebeli niSani sa-Sualo klasis ararseboba anda mcirericxo-vani saSualo klasia. saqar-Tvelos jinis koeficientigacilebiT maRalia ganvi-Tarebuli qveynebis Sesabam-is koeficientebze, rac qvey-anaSi seriozuli socia-luri da ekonomikuri pro-blemis arsebobaze metyve-lebs.

siRaribis maCvenebeliCvens qveyanaSi erT-erT mTa-var problemad rCeba. 2012wels saqarTvelos mTvaro-bis mier prioritetulad de-klarirebul sam ZiriTadmimarTulebas Soris, gana-Tlebasa da soflis meurneo-basTan erTad, jandacva da

socialuri sferoc Sedis.magram, sainteresoa, ramdenadTanmimdevrulia saqarTve-los mTavrobis socialuripolitika?

socialur sferoSi mTa-vrobam arsebiTi xasiaTiscvlilebebis ganxorciele-ba 2005 wlidan daiwyo, rode-sac ukiduresad Raribi mo-saxleobisTvis socialuridacvis axali sistemis dan-ergvis iniciativiT gamovi-da da, Sesabamisad, strate-giul dokumentebSic pri-oritetul mimarTulebadsiRaribis daZleva iqna aRi-arebuli. dRemde mTavrobisumTavres saSualovadian mi-zans, siRaribis Semcireba damosaxleobaSi socialuraddaucveli fenis keTildRe-obis dacva warmoadgens.Tumca, pesimisturi statis-

tika aCvenebs, rom es sferogamarTuli da mdgradi araa.is, rom saqarTvelos mosax-leobis 50-55% siRaribiszRvars dabla, 15% ki _ uki-duresi siRaribis pirobeb-Si cxovrobs, reformebis ga-tarebis dauyovnebliv saWi-roebaze metyvelebs.

mTavrobam pensiebisa damiznobrivi socialuri dax-marebis programebis meSveo-biT, romlebic 2006 wlismeore naxevarSi waradgina,mniSvnelovani nabiji gada-dga win. 2003-2007 wlebSisocialurad daucveli ojax-ebis wliuri Semosavaligaizarda, Tumca am zrdaSi,

iseve rogorc Cilesa dabraziliis SemTxvevaSi, mniS-vnelovani komponenti so-cialuri daxmareba iyo daara dasaqmebisa da, Sesabam-isad, Semosavlebis gazrdilimaCvenebeli.

miuxedavad imisa, rom2003-2007 wlis periodSi sa-Sualo Semosavlebi gaiza-rda, qveyanaSi siRaribe arSemcirebula, rasac bevrimizezi ganapirobebda. pirv-el rigSi ki, is faqti, romekonomikuri da sajaro seq-toris yovlismomcvelma re-formebma am periodSi ufrometi adamiani datova samsax-uris gareSe, vidre daasaqma;amasTanave, is seqtorebi, sa-dac Semosavlebis zrdadafiqsirda (mSenebloba, fi-nansuri momsaxureba, samTomrewveloba, sajaro samsax-

uri), mTliani dasaqmebis Za-lian mcire nawils warmoad-genen.

2006-2008 wlebSi saqarT-velos ekonomika yovelwli-urad, saSualod, 1.8 miliar-di lariT izrdeboda. Sesa-bamisad, izrdeboda social-uri dacvis xarjic, 2009 wlisCaTvliT, yovelwliurad, sa-Sualod, 181.6 milioni lar-iT. 2006-2010 wlebSi social-ur dacvaze sul 5.1 miliar-di lari daixarja. Tumca2010 wels socialuri dacvisxarji 40 milioni lariTSemcirda. klebaze gavlenaglobalurma ekonomikurmakrizisma moaxdina: 2009 wels

saarsebo minimumis TiTqmis gaormageba CineTSi Raribebis ofi-

cialur maCvenebels 100 milion adamianamde gazrdis. Sesabamisad,

saWiro iqneba centraluri mTavrobisgan axali finansuri daxmare-

ba. pekinis erT-erTi universitetis profesoris li Sinis prog-

noziT, wliuri saarsebo minimumis 310 dolaramde gazrdis SemTx-

vevaSi, CineTSi Raribebis ricxvi 130 milionamde moimatebs. calkeuli

eqspertebi aRniSnaven, rom CineTi xelovnurad amcirebs wliuri

saarsebo minimumis maCvenebels, raTa sazogadoebis yuradReba siR-

aribesTan brZolaSi miRweul warmatebebs miapyros

``



miuxedavad imisa, rom 2003-2007 wlis periodSi saqarTveloSi saSu-

alo Semosavlebi gaizarda, qveyanaSi siRaribe ar Semcirebula, rasac

bevri mizezi ganapirobebda. pirvel rigSi ki, is faqti, rom ekonomikuri

da sajaro seqtoris yovlismomcvelma reformebma am periodSi ufro

meti adamiani datova samsaxuris gareSe, vidre daasaqma; amasTanave,

is seqtorebi, sadac Semosavlebis zrda dafiqsirda (mSenebloba, fin-

ansuri momsaxureba, samTo mrewveloba, sajaro samsaxuri), mTliani

dasaqmebis Zalian mcire nawils warmoadgenen

`

`

Cveni ekonomika 3.9%-iT Sem-cirda.

2011 wels socialuridacvis xarji daaxloebiT201 milioni lariT gaizar-da da, saerTo jamSi, 1.5 mil-iardi lari Seadgina. aqedan

yvelaze naklebi – mTlianisocialuri dacvis 0.7% –SezRuduli SesaZleblobe-bis mqone adamianebs xmarde-baT, 16% – socialurad daucv-

el ojaxebsa da bavSvebs, 66.4%_ xandazmulTa socialurdacvas. 2011 wels, araklas-ificirebul saqmianobaze ga-weuli danaxarjebi socia-lur sferoSi 251 milionlars Seadgens.

gamokvlevebi aCvenebs,rom siRaribis Semcirebazeyvelaze ukeT moqmedebs pen-siebi da miznobrivi social-uri daxmarebebi. pensiebis

gareSe, siRaribismaCvenebeli gaizr-deboda 23.6%-dan32.9%-mde, xolomiznobrivi socia-luri daxmarebebida sxva socialuriservisebi siRari-bes 2%-iT amcirebs.miznobrivi socia-

luri daxmareba kargad aRw-evs Rarib moqalaqeebamde. ms-gavsi programebi Raribi oja-xebis Semosavlebs 72%-iTzrdis, xolo ukiduresad Ra-ribi mosaxleobis Semosav-

lebs _ 105%-iT.Tumca saqarTvelo-Si misi dafarvisareali mcirea. 2007wlis monacemebiT,arsebuli programe-bi Raribi mosaxle-obis mxolod 19%-s da ukiduresad Ra-ribi mosaxleobis30%-s faravda. am

monacemebidan gamomdinare,msoflio banki miiCnevs, romTu miznobrivi socialuridaxmareba gaswvdeba mTelsRarib da ukiduresad Rarib

EBRD-is prognoziT, 2012 wels saqarTvelos ekonomika 5%-iT gaizrdeba.gasuli wlis oqtombris prognozis mixedviT, zrda mxolod 4%-s Seadgenda.

`miuxedavad saerTaSoriso donori organizaciebis mxridan dax-marebis Semcirebisa, saqarTvelos mTavrobam SeZlo dafinansebis kerZowyaroebis moZieba, aseve miiRo Sesabamisi sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebi~– aRniSnulia EBRD-is angariSSi.

rac Seexeba saqarTvelos mezobel qveynebs, 2012 wels azerbaijanSiekonomikuri zrda 3,5%-s (prognozi Semcirda 0,5%-iT), xolo somxeTSi3%-s (-0,5) Seadgens. EBRD-ma TurqeTisa da ruseTis prognozi ucvlelad_ 2,5%-isa da 4,2%-is doneze datova.

zogadad, evrozonis savalo krizisis fonze, EBRD-i ganviTarebadqveynebSi zogadad ekonomikuri zrdis Senelebas prognozirebs, evro-zonis krizisis damZimebis pirobebSi, misi gauaresebis perspeqtiviT.monacemebi EBRD-is 2012 wlis ianvris angariSSi _ ̀ regionuli ekonomikuriperspeqtiva EBRD-is saoperacio qveynebSi~ (Regional EconomicProspects in EBRD Countries of Operations: January 2012) aris mo-cemuli.

EBRD-ma somxeTis da azerbaijanisekonomikuri prognozi gaauaresa,

saqarTvelosi ki gazarda

siRaribis Semcirebaze yvelaze ukeT moqmedebs pensiebi da

miznobrivi socialuri daxmarebebi. pensiebis gareSe, siRaribis

maCvenebeli gaizrdeboda 23.6%-dan 32.9%-mde, xolo miznobrivi

socialuri daxmarebebi da sxva socialuri servisebi siRaribes

2%-iT amcirebs. miznobrivi socialuri daxmareba kargad aRwevs

Rarib moqalaqeebamde. msgavsi programebi Raribi ojaxebis Semo-

savlebs 72%-iT zrdis, xolo ukiduresad Raribi mosaxleobis Se-

mosavlebs _ 105%-iT

`

`

23

mosaxleobas, siRaribe Ti-Tqmis orjer _ 23.6%-dan12%-mde Semcirdeba, xoloukiduresi siRaribe TiTq-mis samjer _ 9.3%-dan 2.9%-mde. yvela ukiduresad Rari-bi moqalaqis dafarvis Sem-TxvevaSi, xarjebis gaizr-deba, mSp-is 0.4%-iT, xoloRaribi moqalaqeebis dafa-rvis SemTxvevaSi _ mSp-is1.1%-iT.

garda amisa, `gaeros~bavSvTa fondis angariSismixedviT, romelic gasuliwlis noembris bolos gamo-qveynda, siRaribe saqarTve-los erT-erT umTavres ga-mowvevad rCeba. rogorc fon-dis angariSSia aRniSnuli,„ekonomikur zrdas saqarTve-loSi, siRaribis farTomas-Stabiani Semcireba ar mohy-olia~.

„xSirad, siRaribe maTimTeli cxovrebis manZilzegrZeldeba. adreul asakSisiRaribem, SesaZloa, gamoi-wvios xangrZlivi gonebrivida fizikuri darRvevebi. ze-moaRniSnuli garemoebebi ki,TavisTavad, ganapirobebs siR-aribis momdevno Taobebi-sTvis gadacemiscikls. amdenad,bavSvTa keTild-ReobaSi investi-reba umniSvnelo-vanesia kacobrio-bis Tanaswori daTanamimdevruliganviTarebis uz-runvelsayofad~, –naTqvamia gaeros bavSvTafondis angariSSi saqarT-velos Sesaxeb.

oficialuri monacemiT,2011 wlis aprilisTvissaqarTveloSi 145 665 ojaxi(mTliani mosaxleobis 12,4 %)yovelTviuri daxmarebebissaxiT fulad saarsebo mini-mums iRebda. yvelaze Ratakimosaxleobis umravlesoba ki,gaeros bavSvTa fondis axa-

li angariSis mixedviT, amJa-mad miznobriv socialur dax-marebas ar iRebs. imis miuxe-davad, rom 2008 wels mTavrobamdaamtkica programa „erTianisaqarTvelo siRaribis gareSe~,2008 wels siRaribis zRvarsmiRma myofi ojaxebisTvis

Seiqmna samedicino dazRvevada miznobrivi socialuridaxmarebebi, „bavSvis ufleba-Ta komiteti kvlav SeSfoTe-bulia qveyanaSi farTod gavr-celebuli siRaribiTa dasiduxWiriT da aRniSnavs, rombevri bavSvis cxovrebis doneZalze dabalia.

umwvavesi problemaa isic,rom umuSevarTa socialurdacvis muxli saqarTvelos

socialuri dacvis funqcio-nalur ganawilebaSi saer-Tod ar aris Cadebuli. qvey-anaSi umuSevarTa raodeno-ba ar iklebs, arc dasaqmebispolitika atarebs aqtiurxasiaTs. maSin, roca special-istebi umZimesi socialuri

fonis mogvarebis erT-erTgzad saqarTveloSic samu-Sao kadrebis gadamzadebasada biznes-unarebis gamomu-SavebaSi xedaven.

1998 wlis Semdeg, umuSe-vrobis done saqarTveloSigaizarda 12.4%-dan 16.3%-mde.Tumca, es oficialuri mo-nacemebiT. araoficialurimaCveneblebi ki gacilebiTsagangaSoa. erovnul-demokra-


saqarTvelos mTavrobam pensiebisa da miznobrivi socialuri

daxmarebis programebis meSveobiT, romlebic 2006 wlis meore nax-

evarSi waradgina, mniSvnelovani nabiji gadadga win. 2003-2007 wlebSi

socialurad daucveli ojaxebis wliuri Semosavali gaizarda, Tumca

am zrdaSi, iseve rogorc Cilesa da braziliis SemTxvevaSi, mniS-

vnelovani komponenti socialuri daxmareba iyo da ara dasaqme-

bisa da, Sesabamisad, Semosavlebis gazrdili maCvenebeli

`

`


mniSvnelovania ara mxolod dasaqmebuli da umuSevari adamianeb-

is raodenoba, aramed im adamianebis Semosavlebic, romelTa xelfa-

sic saSualo minimumze dabalia. saqarTveloSi dasaqmebulTa 17.4%-i

dReSi 1.25 aSS dolarze nakleb TanxiT cxovrobs. ganviTarebul qvey-

nebSi Sesabamisi procentuli maCvenebeli nulis tolia, xolo post-

sabWoTa qveynebSi iseve, rogorc sxva ganviTarebad da naklebganvi-

Tarebul qveynebSi, es mniSvnelovan problemas warmoadgens

``

laTinuri amerika

(siRaribeSi mcxorvebi mosaxleobis procentuli maCvenebeli)

paragvai

ekvadori

meqsika

laTinuriamerika

peru

venesuela

brazilia

C ile

urugvai

wyaro: ECLAC

bolivi a

kolumbia

tiuli institutis (NDI) mi-er Catarebuli kvlevis Tana-xmad, 16,161 gamokiTxulidan67% respondenti Tavs umu-Sevrad Tvlis. 2011 wlis seq-temberSi gamovlenili Sede-gebis mixedviT, mosaxleobis62%-s umuSevroba qveynis no-mer pirvel problemad miaC-nia.

kidev erTi sakiTxi, ro-melsac ekonomistebi gan-sakuTrebul yuradRebasaqceven, Sromisunarian umuSe-varTa ganaTlebis donea.rogorc braziliisa daCiles magaliTebis ganxil-vam gvaCvena, kadrebis gada-mzadeba da ganaTlebisxarisxis gaumjobeseba, siR-aribesa da umuSevrobasTanbrZolis erT-erTi umniSvne-lovanesi meTodia. saqarTve-loSi umuSevarTa 81%-s sa-Sualo an umaRlesi ga-naTleba aqvs miRebuli. rac

imas imas, rom ga-naTlebuli sam-uSao Zala gamou-yenebelia da masqveynis ekonomikisfunqcionirebaSiwvlili ver Seaqvs.amave dros, msof-lio konkurentu-lobis angariSis

mixedviT (2011-2012 wlebi),qveyanaSi biznesis keTebismTavari xelisSemSlelifaqtori araadeqvaturi gana-Tlebis mqone samuSao Za-laa. es arcaa gasakviri, gar-damavali ekonomikis mqoneqveynebis umetesoba, egreTwodebul, „struqturulumuSevrobas~ ganicdis. amtipis umuSevroba grZelva-diani umuSevrobaa, rac, Zi-riTadad, gamowveulia muSax-elis unar-Cvevebis Seusabam-obiT bazarze arsebul sa-muSaosTan. anu arsebobs di-di „Seusabamoba~ damsaqmeb-lebis saWiroebebsa da imunar-Cvevebs Soris, romleb-sac potenciuri muSaxelisTavazobs.

msoflios erT-erTiumsxvilesi auditorulikompania saqarTveloSioficialurad SemovidasaqarTveloSi msoflios erT-erTi umsxvilesi auditoruli kompa-

nia oficialurad Semovida. saubaria inglisur „er es em-interneiSe-nalze~. auditoruli kompaniebis msoflio aTeulis wevri saqarTveloSi„kapto-jgufis~ partniori gaxda.

„er es emi~ bazarze gasuli saukunis 60-iani wlebidan moRvaweobs.kompaniis Stab-bina londonSia. dReisTvis „er es emi~ 83-ze metqveyanaSi 714 auditorul da konsaltingur kompanias aerTianebs. orga-nizaciaSi 32 aTasze meti specialisti, maT Soris, 3113 partniorimuSaobs.

rac Seexeba „kapto-jgufs~, igi 2008 Seiqmna da dReisTvis qarTuliauditoruli kompaniebis reitingis aTeulSia. rogorc kompaniaSi acx-adeben, momdevno Tvidan rebrendings iwyeben da saerTaSorisoauditis bazarze aqtiurad gasvlas gegmaven.

25

1998 wlis Semdeg, umuSevrobis done saqarTveloSi gaizarda

12.4%-dan 16.3%-mde. Tumca, es oficialuri monacemebiT. araofi-

cialuri maCveneblebi ki gacilebiT sagangaSoa . erovnul-

demokratiuli institutis (NDI) mier Catarebuli kvlevis Tanax-

mad, 16,161 gamokiTxulidan 67% respondenti Tavs umuSevrad Tv-

lis. 2011 wlis seqtemberSi gamovlenili Sedegebis mixedviT,

mosaxleobis 62%-s umuSevroba qveynis nomer pirvel problemad

miaCnia

`

`ekonomikuri politika

mosaxleoba, romelic cxovrobs saSualoSemosavlis 50%-ze naklebi SemosavlebiT,2009 w.

siRaribe, uTanasworoba da gadanawilebagadasaxadebsa

da fulad

transferebamde

gadasaxadebisa

da fuladi

transferebis

Semdeg

jinis indeqsi : 0=sruli Tanasworoba da1=sruli uTanasworoba, 2009.

brazilia*

meqsika

C ile

aSS

ia poni a

samx. korea

avstralia

espaneTi

kanada

britaneTi

saberZneTi

germania

SvedeTi

safrangeTi

wyaroebi: OECD; United Nations ECLAC gadasaxadebisa da fuladitransferebis ganxorcielebamdemonacemebi miuwvdomelia

amasTanave, mniSvnelova-nia ara mxolod dasaqmebu-li da umuSevari adamianeb-is raodenoba, aramed im ad-amianebis Semosavlebic, ro-melTa xelfasic saSualominimumze dabalia. saqarTve-loSi dasaqmebulTa 17.4%-idReSi 1.25 aSS dolarze na-kleb TanxiT cxovrobs. gan-viTarebul qveynebSi Sesabam-isi procentuli maCvenebe-li nulis tolia, xolopost-sabWoTa qveynebSi iseve,rogorc sxva ga-nviTarebad da na-klebganviTareb-ul qveynebSi, esmniSvnelovan pro-blemas warmoadg-ens.

SeiZleba dava-skvnaT, rom saqar-TveloSi biznesis

keTebis erT-erTi ZiriTadi xelisSemSleli faqtori, fi-nansebis xelmisawvdomobisa da inflaciis paralelurad,araadeqvaturi ganaTlebis mqone muSaxelia. amitom sa-qarTvelos mTavrobam da sxva Sesabamisma uwyebebma undascadon am SezRudvebis aRmofxvra, raTa mewarmeoba swra-fad ganviTardes. gansakuTrebul yuradRebas moiTxovsganaTlebis sferos ganviTareba. saWiroa iseTi refo-rmebis gatareba ganaTlebis seqtorSi, rogorebicaa ganaT-lebis standartebis modernizacia, dawyebiTi da saSua-lo ganaTlebis sayovelTao uzrunvelyofa, umaRlesiganaTlebis xarisxis gaumjobeseba da organizacie-bisTvis daxmarebis gaweva maTi TanamSromlebis gad-amzadebaSi, raTa isini axlandeli bazris moTxovnebsukeT Seesabamebodnen.


vela prognozis mi-xedviT, msoflios sak-

maod rTuli weli daudga.saerTaSoriso vaWrobis ga-farToebam da komunikacieb-is ganviTarebam samyaro erTmTlian organizmad aqcia.dedamiwis nebismier wertil-Si ganviTarebuli movlene-bi adre Tu gvian yvela qvey-anaSi asaxvas hpovebs. evro-zonis krizisis, wamyvaniekonomikis mqone qveynebisdakarguli reitingebis, to-taluri sabiujeto xarjeb-is Semcirebis pirobebSicxovrebis Sedegebi CvenssazRvrebamdec moaRwevs. amisgamo mniSvnelovania vico-deT, romel valutaSi Sevi-naxoT danazogi, rogoriamaTi kursebis prognozi, raelis sanedleulo bazrebs,rogori iqneba sasursaTofasebi da saerTod, rogorvicxovrebT 2012 wels.

evrokavSiris savalokrizisma valutebis Tema gan-sakuTrebiT aqtualuri gax-da. evro, romelic bolo

wlebSi stabilurad imyareb-da poziciebs msoflioSi,bolo periodSi saerTodgauqmebis safrTxis winaSea.dRes msoflios ekonomikurda politikur wreebSi yve-laze aqtualuri kiTxvebievrokavSirsa da mis valu-tas ukavSirdeba. gaiyofa Tuara evrokavSiri or nawilad_ mdidar CrdiloeTad da

rogor vicxovrebT2012 wels

Rarib samxreTad? ra bedi elis evros?evropaSi ganviTarebuli movlenebis gamo, 6 Tvis ganmav-

lobaSi evros TviTRirebuleba 10%-iT Semcirda. eqsperte-bi fiqroben, rom am qveynebSi sabiujeto deficitis Sesam-cireblad saukeTeso gamosavali, evrozonis farglebs miR-ma eqsportis moculobis zrdaa. logikuria, rom, rac ufroswrafad gagrZeldeba evros gaiafeba, miT ufro swrafad

iqneba SesaZlebeliiseTi qveynebisekonomikuri vi-Tarebis gamoswore-ba, rogoric ital-ia, espaneTi da sa-frangeTia. rac imasniSnavs, rom evro

`msxverplad~ unda Seewiros msxvili ekonomikebis gadarCe-nis saqmes.

saberZneTi isev defoltis zRvarzea. 2011 wlis dekemberSiqveyana defolts ukve gadaurCa, evrokavSirisa da savalutofondis 8-miliardiani daxmarebis saSualebiT. Tumca essakmarisi ar aRmoCnda da morigi tranSisTvis aTens kvla-vac mkacri ekonomikuri politikis gatarebas sTxoven. prob-lemebia belgiaSi da espaneTSi, sadac umuSevroba Sromisu-nariani mosaxleobis 22%-s aWarbebs, italia mSp-is 0,5%-iTSemcirebas elodeba. jerjerobiT, myaria germaniis ekono-mika, qveyanaSi dasaqmebis done rekordul maCvenebels aRwevs,

eqspertTa nawilis metad aqtualur kiTxvaze, romel valutaSi

jobs fulis Senaxva _ standartuli pasuxi aqvs _ moklevadian

periodSi, adamianma danazogi unda Seinaxos im valutaSi, romel-

Sic mis daxarjvas apirebs. ufro didi xniT Tu apirebs fulis

Senaxvas, yvelaze stabiluri Sveicaruli frankia

` `y

27

gansakuTrebiT saintereso da mniSvnelovani ki, cxadia, navTo-

bis fasis cvlilebasTan dakavSirebuli prognozebia. am mxriv,

analitikosTa mosazrebebi faqtobrivad erTmaneTs emTxveva. maTi

umravlesoba miiCnevs, rom 2012 wlis pirvel naxevarSi `Savi oqro~

cotaTi gaiafdeba. amis mizezi kvlavindeburad moTxovnilebis

kleba iqneba. SemdgomSi ki, iranTan dakavSirebuli problemebis

gamo navTobi gaZvirdeba, Tumca, savaraudod, 130 dolari/barels ar

ascdeba

`

`

Tumca wleuls eqspertebi si-rTuleebs germaniaSic elian.

amis fonze britanelieqspertebi, romlebic evro-zonas Tavidanve skeptikuraduyurebdnen, miiCneven, rom misidaSla gardauvalia. gavle-niani britanuli ekonomiku-ri da analitikuri centrisprognoziT, mimdinare welievrozonisTvis ukiduresadmZime iqneba da misi daSlistendencia kidev ufro daC-qardeba, aTi wlis Semdegevro aRar iarsebebs, 2012weli ki am procesis dasawy-isi iqneba, mas Semdeg, racevrozonas saberZneTi daitalia datoveben.

evrozonis SesaZlo daS-la daasaxela 2012 wlismTavar geopolitikur riskadiaponurma sainvesticio ba-nkma `nomuram~. magram eqs-pertTa umravlesobis Sefase-biT, evro politikuri poreq-tia da mis gauqmebas evrope-li liderebi arafriT dauS-veben. germania da safrange-Ti cdiloben, evrokavSirisqveynebi maT mier SeTavaze-bul sabiujeto discipli-naze daiyolion da evrozo-na gadaarCinon.

ra gavlena Se-iZleba iqonios ev-rozonaSi mimdi-nare krizisma sa-qarTveloze dalaris kursze? ro-desac evros Se-saZlo gauqmebaze,an gaufasurebazekeTdeba gancxade-bebi, cxadia, bevrs aintere-sebs, Rirs Tu ara danazoge-bis evroSi Senaxva.

saqarTveloSi `popula-ruli~ ucxouri valuta yo-velTvis dolari iyo, maSinacki, roca evro myardebodadolaris mimarT. aseT pi-robebSi ki, roca evros bedibewvze hkidia, momxmareblebisdanazogebis evroSi Senaxvas

moeridebian. CvenTan yvela operacia dolarSi xorcieldebada evro ZiriTadi valuta ar aris, Tumca Tu evrozonaSi cudiviTareba iqneba, es niSnavs, rom Cven eqsport-importis Tvalsaz-risiT problemebi Segveqneba. Cveni eqsportis 25% evropaSigadis da Tu `beber kontinentze~ problemebi gagrZeldeba,Cveni eqsporti bunebrivad Semcirdeba. es ki Cvens mTlianSida produqtsSeamcirebs. saqar-Tvelodan eqspor-ti TiTqmis samj-er CamouvardebaqveyanaSi impor-tirebuli produ-qtis odenobas.amis gamo CvenqveyanaSi mudmivisavaWro defici-tia. 2011 wlis mo-nacemebiT, uary-ofiTma savaWrosaldom TiTqmisoTxi miliardiaSS dolari Sead-gina. es deficitisxva dafinansebiswyaroebTan erTad,ucxoeTidan, sam-uSaod wasuli qarTvelebis fuladi gzavnilebiT ifareba,romelic, saerTo jamSi, miliards utoldeba. yovelive aqedangamomdinare, Zalian logikurad JRers kiTxva _ aisaxeba Tuara evrozonis krizisi qarTul larze?

saqarTvelos bankebis asociaciis prezidentis, zurabgvasalias prognoziT, evrozonis krizisi larze ar ai-

saxeba da mosaxleobas urCevs, danazogebi larSi gaakeTon,vinaidan savaluto riskebs ase ufro aicileben Tavidan.gvasalias SefasebiT, savaluto riskebis Tavidan acilebisgaranti erovnuli bankis rezervebi da is politikaa, romelsacqveynis centraluri banki atarebs. `saqarTveloSi dRessakmaod maRalia dolarizaciis maCvenebeli. es erTgvariproblemac ki aris qveynisTvis. rodesac Semosavlebi lar-Si gaqvs, angariSsworebas larSi axden da gadasaxadebsaclarSi ixdi, jobs, rom danazogebic larSi Seinaxo~, _ acxa-debs gvasalia.

eqspertTa nawilis metad aqtualur kiTxvaze, romel

zurab gvasalia:

jobs, romdanazogebilarSi Seinaxo

bazris mimoxilva


valutaSi jobsfulis Senaxva _standartuli pa-suxi aqvs _ mok-levadian peri-odSi, adamianmadanazogi undaSeinaxos im va-lutaSi, romel-Sic mis daxarj-vas apirebs. uf-ro didi xniTTu apirebs fu-lis Senaxvas, yve-laze stabiluriSveicaruli fra-nkia.

meore nawi-li ki msurvel-ebs danazogis ga-keTebasa da fu-lis dabandebasdolarSi urCevs.maTi SefasebiT,

evrozonis krizisis fonze, rodesac evrokavSiris wevriqveynebi evros SenarCunebasa da stabilizaciisTvis ibr-Zvian, evropuli valuta danazogisTvis saukeTeso arCevaniar aris. dagegmili saparlamento da saprezidento arCevnebisfonze arc larSi dabandebebia mizanSewonili, radgan, poli-tikurad aqtiur periods yovelTvis Tan axlavs savalutokursis mcire ryevebi mainc. aqedan gamomdinare, eqsperteTanawilis SefasebiT, 2012 wels yvelaze saimedo valutisstatuss amerikuli dolari miiRebs.

sursaTis fasebi

valutebis meryeobis ga-rda, kidev erTi mniSvne-lovani Temaa nedleulisada produqciis fasebi. mi-mdinare wels Zalian mni-Svnelovani iqneba nedleu-lis bazrebze arsebuli vi-Tareba. eqspertTa SefasebiT,poziciaTa umravlesobazefasis klebaa mosalodneli,risi mizezic evropuli kri-zisis gamo nedleulze moTx-ovnilebis Semcirebaa. evro-peli momxmareblis miersxvadasxva saqonelze mo-Txovnilebis kleba, mniS-vnelovan gavlenas axdensiseTi eqsportiorebis aqti-urobaze, rogoric CineTia.am ukanasknelis warmoebistempis Semcireba 2012 wlisglobaluri ekonomikis erT-erTi problema iqneba, iseverogorc sxva ganviTarebadi,eqsportze orientirebuliqveynebis.

2012 wels analitikose-bi bazrebze arabunebrivgadaxrebs varaudoben. jer-jerobiT, Zneli saTqmelia,romeli nedleuli gaZvird-eba da romeli ara. am Tval-

Joze graciano

da silva

2012 wlis ianvarSi 2011 wlis ianvarTan Sedare-biT inflaciis donem saqarTveloSi 0,5 procentiSeadgina. fasebis mniSvnelovani mateba dafiqsirdasatransporto momsaxurebis qvejgufze (21,2 procen-ti), piradi satransporto saSualebebis eqsploat-aciis qvejgufze (9,1 procenti).

sacxovrebelze, wyalze, eleqtroenergiasa da airzefasebi gaizarda 2.7 procentiT. sursaTisa da ualko-holo sasmelebze mocemul periodSi fasebi Semcir-da 1,6 procentiT. fasebis klebis maRali maCveneble-bi dafiqsirda Semdeg qvejgufebze: xili da yurZeni(29 procenti), bostneuli, baRCeuli, kartofili dasxva bolqvovanebi (16,5 procenti), Saqari da sxvatkbileuli (7,2 procenti).

fasebi gaizarda xorcis da xorcproduqtebisqvejgufze (23,9 procenti), rZe, yveli da kvercxisqvejgufze (6,8 procenti). 2012 wlis ianvarSi 2011wlis ianvarTan SedarebiT fasebis 7,7 procentianikleba dafiqsirda kavSirgabmulobisjgufze.

xili gaiafda, xorcproduqtebi gaZvirda

29

gaeros soflis meurneobis da sursaTis organizaciis xelmZRv-

anelis Joze graciano da silvas gancxadebiT, sasursaTo bazrebze

ryeva gagrZeldeba da ekonomikuri arastabilurobis gamo sul

ufro meti adamiani dadgeba SimSilis safrTxis winaSe. gaeros

maRalCinosnis ganmartebiT, fasebi ise mkveTrad aRar gaizrdeba,

rogorc bolo ori weli xdeba, Tumca arc daiklebs. SesaZlebelia

mxolod umniSvnelo, moklevadiani Semcireba saqonlis calkeul

jgufebze

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`

sazrisiT, mosazrebebi Zal-ian mravalferovania. magal-iTad, analitikosTa didnawili miiCnevs, rom spi-lenZi gaZvirdeba, aluminiki gaiafdeba.

gansakuTrebiT saintere-so da mniSvnelovani ki, cxa-dia, navTobis fasis cvlile-basTan dakavSirebuli prog-nozebia. am mxriv,analitikosTa mo-sazrebebi faqto-brivad erTmaneTsemTxveva. maTi um-ravlesoba miiC-nevs, rom 2012 wlispirvel naxevarSi`Savi oqro~ co-taTi gaiafdeba.amis mizezi kvla-vindeburad moTxovnilebiskleba iqneba. SemdgomSi ki,iranTan dakavSirebuliproblemebis gamo navTobigaZvirdeba, Tumca, savaraudod,130 dolari/barels ar as-cdeba.

eqspertTa SefasebiT,evrozonis krizisi produ-qciis fasebze saqarTvelo-Sic aucileblad aisaxeba.jerjerobiT, evrozonis kri-zisis gamo evropuli produ-qciis saeqsporto fasebi arSemcirebula, Tumca unda vi-varaudoT, rom wlis ganmav-lobaSi es aucileblad mox-deba. bolo 10 wlis ganmav-lobaSi, evropis eqsporti,evros maRali kursis gamo,dolaris saeqsporto qvey-nebTan SedarebiT, ara-konkurentuli iyo. TumcaviTareba Seicvala. is produ-qti, romlis eqsporti evrop-idan evroSi xorcieldeba,evros kursis cvlilebasTanerTad, ra Tqma unda, gaiafde-ba da ufro konkurentunar-iani gaxdeba. aRsaniSnavia,isic, rom evropis qveynebsaqvT umZlavresi da sakmaodmdgradi ekonomika da Sidamoxmarebis Zalian maRali

kultura. ris gamoc, Sidamoxmarebaze evropaSi mim-dinare procesebi mtkivneu-lad jer ar asaxula. magal-iTad, evrozonis davalia-nebis krizisis miuxedavad,germaniis samomxmarebloganwyobebi gacilebiT uke-Tesia, vidre gasul wels iyo.rogorc samomxmareblo

moTxovnis kvlevis sazoga-doebis (GfK) monacemebSianaTqvami, ianvarSi Sesabami-si jamuri indeqsi 0,2 pun-qtiT, 5,9 niSnulamde gaizar-da.

ukeTesi samomxmarebloklimati qveyanaSi bolos2011 wlis martSi dafiqsir-da. GfK-s eqspertis ralf

biurklis gancxadebiT, ger-maneli momxmarebeli jiutadewinaaRmdegeba koniunqturu-li riskebis zrdas da evro-paSi mzard kriziss. special-isti yuradRebas amaxvilebsimaze, rom adamianebs msxviliSenaZenebisken aqvT midre-kileba da sakuTari Semosav-lebis zrdis perspeqtivebs

optimisturad uyureben. zr-dis mTavar mizezad eqsper-ti Sromis bazarze gamokve-Til dadebiT tendenciebsda samsaxuris dakargvis Si-Sis Sesustebas asaxelebs.gasaTvaliswinebelia saban-ko procentis rekorduladdabali maCvenebeli da fin-ansuri bazrebis mimarT mo-

bazris mimoxilva

saqarTveloSi 2011 wels 89,8milioni dolaris RirebulebisSaqris importi ganxorcielda, rac21%-iT aRemateba gasuli wlis mo-nacemebs. gazrdil RirebulebaSi2011 da 2010 wels msoflio bazarzegazrdilma fasebmac moaxdina gav-lena.

saqarTveloSi Saqris imports mx-olod erTi kompania, Turqul-azer-baijanuli ̀ qualiTi Sugari~ axor-cielebs. adgilobrivi Saqris erTa-derTi mwarmoebeli, agaris qarxanaki 2008 wlis Semdeg gaCerebulia.saqarTveloSi Saqris importi, Ziri-Tadad, braziliidan da azer-baijanidan xorcieldeba.

2011 wels Saqris importi21%-iT gaizarda


mxmareblis undobloba. amfaqtorebis gamo adamianebsfulis bankSi Setanas Zvi-radRirebuli nivTebis SeZe-na urCevniaT.

amitomac, eqspertTa Se-

fasebiT, fasebis kleba armoxdeba dReebis da arc kvi-rebis ganmavlobaSi, magramzafxulisaTvis fasebi evro-pul produqciaze aucileb-lad gadaixedeba. saqarTve-loSi pirvel rigSi, escvlileba evropidan Semo-

suli avtomobilebis faszeaisaxeba.

saqarTvelos xelisuf-leba mimdinare wels 6%-ianinflacias varaudobs. gasu-li wlis inflacia ofi-cialuri statistikis mixed-viT, 8,5% iyo. 2011 wlis mar-tidan fasebis zrda jer sa-sursaTo produqtebidan dai-wyo, Semdeg transportzeaisaxa. inflaciis maCvenebl-

ma piks _ 14.5%-s maisSi mi-aRwia. Tumca, „saqstatis~ mo-nacemebiT, ukve maisidan kle-badi tendencia dafiqsirda.mTlianobaSi weli erTniS-na inflaciiT dasrulda.

2011 wlis dekemberSinoemberTan SedarebiT inf-laciis donem 0,6% Seadgina.statistikis erovnuli sam-saxuris informaciiT, aRniS-nul periodSi sursaTisa daualkoholo sasmelebisjgufis fasebi 1 ,5%-iT

gaizarda da dekembris in-flaciaSi misma wvlilma0,66% Seadgina. erTi TvisganmavlobaSi fasebis mniS-vnelovani zrda bostneulze,baRCeulze, kartofilisa dasxva bolqvovanebze (9,6%),Tevzeulze (2,8%), rZeze, yv-elsa da kvercxze (2%) aR-iricxa. 2011 wlis dekember-Si, noemberTan SedarebiT,fasebi mniSvnelovnad Sem-

cirda Saqarsa da tkbile-ulze (4,3%) da pursa da pur-produqtebze (0,9%). qarTulbazarze purproduqtebis ga-iafeba 2012 welsacaa mos-alodneli. pur-produqtebisasociaciis warmomadgenel-Ta gancxadebiT, mimdinarewels qarTul bazarze pur-produqtebis fasebi Semcir-deba. amis Tqmis safuZvelsasociacias wlis dasawy-isidan fqvilis fasis kle-ba aZlevs. erTi tomara fqvi-lis Rirebuleba 40-dan 31laramde Semcirda. gasulwelTan SedarebiT mosavlismxrivac ukeTesi prognoze-bi keTdeba, rac, purprodu-qtebis TviTRirebulebazecaisaxeba.

rac Seexeba 2012 wlisinflaciis 6%-ian prognozs,igi saqarTveloSi keTdebaim fonze, rodesac gaero 2012wels kvebis produqtebisumniSvnelo gaiafebas varau-dobs. gaeros soflis meur-neobis da sursaTis orga-nizaciis xelmZRvanelisJoze graciano da silvasgancxadebiT, sasursaTo ba-zrebze ryeva gagrZeldeba daekonomikuri arastabiluro-bis gamo sul ufro meti ada-

miani dadgeba Sim-Silis safrTxiswinaSe.

gaeros maRal-Cinosnis ganmarte-biT, fasebi isemkveTrad aRar ga-izrdeba, rogorcbolo ori welixdeba, Tumca arc

daiklebs. SesaZlebelia mx-olod umniSvnelo, mokleva-diani Semcireba saqonliscalkeul jgufebze. Segax-senebT, rom sursaTze msof-lio fasebi 2011 wlis Teber-valSi mkveTrad gaizarda,ramac inflaciis stimulire-ba gamoiwvia. Sedegad, Seqmnaidealuri klimati sazoga-doebis ukmayofilebis da „ar-abuli gazafxulisTvis~.

bolo 10 wlis ganmavlobaSi, evropis eqsporti, evros maRali kur-

sis gamo, dolaris saeqsporto qveynebTan SedarebiT, arakonkurentu-

li iyo. Tumca viTareba Seicvala. is produqti, romlis eqsporti

evropidan evroSi xorcieldeba, evros kursis cvlilebasTan erTad,

ra Tqma unda, gaiafdeba da ufro konkurentunariani gaxdeba. aRsani-

Snavia, isic, rom evropis qveynebs aqvT umZlavresi da sakmaod mdgra-

di ekonomika da Sida moxmarebis Zalian maRali kultura

`

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31

2011 wlis dasawyisSi sursaTze fasebma istoriul maqsimums mi-

aRwia, ramac saerTaSoriso eqspertTa gancxadebiT, 2008 wlis „sa-

sursaTo krizisis~ ganmeorebis safrTxe Seqmna. msoflioSi bur-

Rulze fasebi gasuli wlis aprilis bolosTvis saSualod 71%-iT

gaizarda, rac samjer metia 10 wlis winandel fasebze. popularul

britanul gamocema The uardian-sTan interviuSi gaeros sasursa-

To saagentos ufrosi ekonomisti acxadebda, rom Tuki uaxloes

periodSi evropaSi naleqi ar movida, mimdinare wlis ivnisSi

sakveb produqtebze fasebi agresiulad gaizrdeba

`

`

zafxulSi tailandis xe-lisuflebam, romelic msof-lio bazris brinjiT erT-erTi mTavari mommaragebe-lia, ganacxada, rom wlis bo-lomde, am produqtis fasiSesaZloa 56%-iT gaizardos.tailandis pirveli qali-prezidentis, iinglak Cina-vatis arCevis Semdeg, baz-arze meore jgufis tailan-duri brinjis fasma 7,3%-iT moimata da erT tonaze519 dolari Seadgina. tai-landuri brinji msoflioeqsportis 30%-s Seadgens.msoflio bankis mier gakeTe-buli angariSis Tanaxmad,2011 wels, sursaTis msof-lio fasebma 36%-iT moima-ta. simindis fasi 74%-iTgaizarda, xolo marcvleu-lis _ 69%-iT.

2011 wlis dasawyisSi sur-saTze fasebma istoriul maqsi-mums miaRwia, ramac saerTa-Soriso eqspertTa gancxadeb-iT, 2008 wlis „sasursaTokrizisis~ ganmeorebis sa-frTxe Seqmna. msoflioSi bur-Rulze fasebigasuli wlis ap-rilis bolosTvissaSualod 71%-iTgaizarda, racsamjer metia 10wlis winandelfasebze. popula-rul britanulgamocema The Guard-ian-sTan interviu-Si gaeros sasur-saTo saagentos ufrosi ekon-omisti acxadebda, rom Tukiuaxloes periodSi evropaSinaleqi ar movida, mimdinarewlis ivnisSi sakveb produ-qtebze fasebi agresiuladgaizrdeba. misi ganmartebiT,gansakuTrebuli safrTxe emu-qreboda ganviTarebad qveynebs,sadac sasursaTo inflaciasSesaZloa aRSfoTebuli mo-qalaqeebis masobrivi protes-ti gamoewvia.

es ̀ naleqi~ evrozonis da Semdeg ukve mTeli msoliosekonomikuri krizisi aRmoCnda. evropuli valebis krizismamsoflio ekonomikis zrdisa da sursaTis fasebis zrdisdamuxruWeba ganapiroba.

msoflioSi sakvebis fasi gasuli wlis dekemberSi 2.4%-

iT Semcirda. gaeros sursaTisa da soflis meurneobis orga-nizaciis angariSis mixedviT, fasebis Semcireba marcvleulismaRalma mosavlianobam da masze SedarebiT naklebma moTx-ovnam gamoiwvia, aseve, erT-erTi mizezia Saqrisa da zeTisRirebulebis Semcirebac.

evropuli krizisi msoflioSi kakaos fasebzec aisaxa.fasi produqtze 42%-iT Semcirda, rac 2008 wlis dekembrisSemdeg minamluri maCvenebelia. Sokoladis umsxvilesma mwar-moebleba evropaSi nedleulis Sesyidva minimumamde Seamcir-es, rac, Tavis mxriv, gayidvebis mosalodnel Semcirebas ukav-Sirdeba. kakaos marcvalze fasebis dacemas afrikaSi maRalmamosavlmac Seuwyo xeli.

gaerTianebuli erebis sursaTisa da soflis meurneo-bis organizaciis eqspertTa gancxadebiT, globalur ekonomi-kaSi mimdinare cvlilebebis, bazarze fulis arasaxarbie-lo moZraobisa da energiis gamoyenebis Sedegebis gaTval-iswinebiT, samomavlod msoflioSi sakvebis fasis gansazRvrarTulia.

bazris mimoxilva


ReisaTvis qarTulekonomikaSi yvela-

ze dinamiurad ganviTarebadsferod kvlav sabanko seq-tori rCeba. eqspertTa Se-fasebiT, omis Semdgom Seqm-nil mZime viTarebas bankeb-ma warmatebiT gaarTves Tavida ar aris gamoricxuli,momdevno ramdenime weliwa-di sabanko sfero kvlavliderad darCes qarTulekonomikaSi. am droisTvisseqtoris momgebianoba daax-loebiT 300 milionia. risxarjze aRweven bankebi ammaCvenebels?

eqspertTa nawilis Se-fasebiT, maRali saprocentoganakveTebi qarTuli banke-bis Semosavlebis umTavresiwyaroa. magaliTad, ipoTeku-ri sesxebi saqarTveloSi po-stsabWoTa sivrceSi erT-erTi yvelaze Zviria. ruseT-Si komerciuli bankebi ip-oTekuri sesxebs wliur 11-12.5%-Si gascemen, ukrainaSi17-20%-ad, somxeTSi ipoTekurikreditebis saprocento ga-

nakveTi 12%-dan iwyeba da26%-mde adis, azerbaijanSiki 11-13%-s Seadgens. racSeexeba saqarTvelos, aq moq-medi 19 bankidan ipoTekursesxebs 9 banki gascems, wli-

ratom aweven bankebisaprocento ganakveTebsmaka

RaniaSvili

uri saprocento ganakveTi 12%-dan 22%-mde meryeobs. rogorcam cifrebidan Cans, saqarTveloSi ipoTekur kreditebzedawesebuli saprocento ganakveTi arc ise dabalia.

garda amisa, 2011 wels bankebma gaamkacres biznesTanurTierTobis wesebi. Tu ar CavTvliT ramdenime prior-

itetul sferos, ba-nkebi TiTqmis arakrediteben biznes-saqmianobis iseTsaxeebs, romelicmaRali riskis mata-rebelni arian (ma-galiTad, soflismeurneoba). Sedegad,naRdi fulis moZra-

oba bazarze Semcirebulia, rasac logikurad mivyavarTbiznesis moculobis Semcirebamde.

Tumca im mosazrebas, rom bankebi mogebas maRali pro-centebis xarjze aRweven, ar iziarebs eqspertTa nawili.isini miiCneven, rom, marTalia, saprocento ganakveTebi sesx-ebze jer kidev maRalia, magram es imas ar niSnavs, rom

qarTuli bankebi akrediteben im dargebs, romelic ase Tu ise

muSaoben. es aris vaWroba, msubuqi da gadamamuSavebeli mrewvelo-

ba da sxva. uzarmazari potencialia soflis meurneobaSi, romel-

ic, jerjerobiT, aTvisebuli ar aris da es ar aris marto bankebis

problema, aramed mTlianad qarTuli ekonomikis problema. sof-

lis meurneobis seqtorisaTvis unda Seiqmnas specialuri pro-

gramebi

`

`d

33

seqtoris mogebas mxolodmaRali saprocento ganakveT-ebi ganapirobebs da rombankebi ekonomikis sxva dar-gebs ar akrediteben. maTiSefasebiT, sabanko sistemisSemosavlebi gaizarda ro-gorc saprocento, asevearasaprocento Semosavleb-is zrdis Sedegad. magali-Tad, sabanko seqtoris moge-bis sarekordo maCvenebelzegasvlaSi aranakleb mniS-vnelovani roli iTamaSavadagadacilebuli sesxebisxvedriTi wilis Semcirebam.bankebis sakredito port-felSi mTeli wlis manZilzemcirdeboda vadagadacilebu-li sesxebis xvedriTi wili,am etapisTvis es maCvenebe-li daaxloebiT 2%-ia, gasu-li wlis analogiur peri-odSi es maCvenebeli 3,5% iyo.bolo 1 wlis ganmavlobaSifizikur pirebze gacemulisesxebidan Semosavali 24-25%-iT aris gazrdili, xoloiuridiul pirebze gacemu-

li sesxebidan SemosavlebiTiTqmis 30%-iT, yvelasakredito produqtis mixed-viT. es exeba rogorc samomx-mareblo da biznes sesxebs,aseve ipoTekur sesxebs daganvadebebs.

Tbilisis saxelmwi-fo universitetis sruliprofesori irakli kov-

zanaZe: saqarTvelos saban-ko sistemam 2010 wlis bo-losTvis TiTqmis mTlianaddaZlia 2008-2009 wlebSi war-moqmnili problemebi, rom-lebic, Tavis mxriv, sxva sub-ieqtur (calkeuli bankebi-saTvis sxvadasxva) mizezebT-an erTad, gamowveuli iyoruseT-saqarTvelos 2008wlis agvistos omiT damsoflio safinanso krizi-siT. mogexsenebaT, sabankosistemam 2008 weli daamTavraaqtivebis 1-miliardianivardniT da 215 mln lariszaraliT, aseve 2009 welidasrulda 65 mln lariszaraliT. maSindeli prob-

lemebis daZleva SesaZlebe-li gaxda donorebis mxri-dan gamoyofili farTomas-Stabiani daxmarebiT.

2011 weli sabanko sis-temisTvis dinamiuri zrdisperiodia. bolo araaudire-buli monacemebiT, wlis ga-nmavlobaSi aqtivebi TiTq-mis 20%-iT gaizarda da 12miliard 679 milioni lar-ia, wminda mogeba _ 323 mil-ioni. kargi zrdaa rogorcfizikuri, aseve iuridiulipirebis depozitebSi, gac-ilebiT winmswrebi qveynisekonomikur zrdasTan Sedar-ebiT. sabanko sistema ametapisTvis akmayofilebsmdgradobis da saimedoobisnormativebsa da koeficien-tebs.

s.e. _ `Tibisi bank-is~ generalurma direq-torma, vaxtang bucxri-

kiZem ganacxada, rom uax-loes periodSi mosalod-nelia sabanko sistemaSiSerw y m a - g a erTi an e b i s

sabanko-safinanso seqtori

bankebis da mikrosafinanso organizaciebis mxridan val-Si waRebuli qonebis Taobaze gancxadebebi Tavad biznesismxridan ismis. sajaro reestris cnobiT, 2011 wels 2010-TanSedarebiT uZravi qonebis bazarze tranzaqciebi 26%-iT gaizar-da, realurad ki, rogorc radio „komersantma~ gaarkvia, tran-zaqciebis zrda mosaxleobisTvis safinanso institutebismxridan qonebis CamorTmevis xarjze gaizarda.

am faqtis realurobas adastureben rogorc uZravi qoneb-is bazris moTamaSeebi, aseve eqspertebi. dRes ki ukve mcireda saSualo biznesis asociaciis prezidenti radio „komer-santis~ eTerSi acxadebs, rom bankebis mxridan uZravi qonebisuzrunvelyofiT warmoudgeneli raodenobiT sesxi gaicemo-da. Sedegad, giorgi isakaZis TqmiT, qonebis 99% swored valeb-Si wavida. misive TqmiT, qarTuli bankebi uZravi qonebissaagentoebs hgavdnen, radgan am mimarTulebiT aqtivebi Zaliandidi raodenobiT dagrovda.

erT-erTi wamyvani sainvesticio kompania „jiaiji pliusis~xelmZRvanelis daviT aslaniSvilis gancxadebiTac, uZ-ravi qonebis bazarze bevri tranzaqcia xdeba, radgangiraoSi Cadebuli binebis brunva gaizarda.

qarTuli bankebi uZraviqonebis saagentoebs hgavdnen


procesi. ramdenad eT-anxmebiT am mosazrebasda Tu ase moxdeba, riTiqneba igi ganpirobebu-li?

i.k. _ me ar vici rissafuZvelze saubrobs bato-

ni bucxrikiZe, Tumca ar gam-ovricxav msgavs movlenebs.aRsaniSnavia, rom sistemaSem-qmneli bankebi qmnian saban-ko sistemis aqtivebis 80%-s,danarCeni bankebi SedarebiTmcire zomisaa, magram yvelaam mcire bankSi warmodge-nilia ucxouri safinansoinstituti. amitom ar gam-ovricxav iyos gaerTianebistendenciebi, romelsaczogadad iwvevs sabanko seq-toris konkurenciis zrda.yvela es banki akmayofilebsmdgradobis da saimedoobisim normativebsa da koefi-cients, rac dawesebuli aqvscentralur banks.

s.e. _ qonebis daya-daRebisas adre primatieniWeboda banks, axla es

norma Seicvala. ra gax-da am sakanonmdeblo cv-lilebebis mizezi darogor aisaxeba es banke-bze?

i.k. _ zustad ver get-yviT ram gamoiwvia es cvli-

leba. Tumca max-sovs sabankoasociacia erTiwlis win sak-maod aqtiurob-da, roca ganix-ileboda sak-iTxi proble-muri giraosSemTxvevaSi visunda miniWebodaprimati _ saga-dasaxados Tubanks da gark-veuli kompro-misebi maSin mi-Rweul iqna. bu-nebrivia, es cv-lileba metnak-lebad yvela ba-nkze moaxdensgavlenas, gamom-dinare iqidan,Tu sad gaCnde-ba giraosTandakavSirebuliproblemebi.

s.e. _ 2011weli sabanko seqtormadaaxloebiT 300 milio-niani mogebiT daasrula,ris xarjze aRweven ban-kebi mogebis amxela maC-venebels?

i.k. _ es maCvenebelimiRweulia aqtivebis zrdisda, pirvel rigSi, sakreditoportfelis zrdis xarjze.sakmaod maRalia saprocen-to ganakveTebi sesxebze daes ar aris gamowveuli mx-olod resursis siZviriT.mniSvnelovan rols Tama-Sobs inflaciac, wlis pirv-el naxevarSi CvenTan TiTq-mis 14%-iani inflacia iyo.izrdeba samomxmareblo sesx-ebis moculobac (Tu davey-rdnobiT gazeT ̀ rezonansis~mier gavrcelebul informa-

cias, yoveli 100 momxmarebl-idan, SeTavazebis SemTxveva-Si, asivem aiRo samomxmareb-lo sesxi). garda amisa, bankebsmaRali aqvT sakomisio mar-Jebi savaluto operaciebze,salaros operaciebze, plas-tikur baraTebze da a. S. mevfiqrob, rom es sakomisioe-bi aris Sesamcirebeli, Tum-ca am ganakveTebs sabazroekonomika, konkurencia undaaregulirebdes.

s.e. _ jerovnad akred-iteben Tu ara qarTulibankebi dRes ekonomikas?migaCniaT Tu ara, romdRes bankebs ar SeuZli-aT meti riskis gaweva bi-znesis gansaviTarebladqveyanaSi?

i.k. _ qarTuli bankebiakrediteben im dargebs, ro-melic ase Tu ise muSaoben.es aris vaWroba, msubuqi dagadamamuSavebeli mrewvelobada sxva. uzarmazari poten-cialia soflis meurneoba-Si, romelic jerjerobiTaTvisebuli ar aris da esar aris marto bankebis prob-lema, aramed mTlianad qarTu-li ekonomikis problema.soflis meurneobis seqtori-saTvis unda Seiqmnas spe-cialuri programebi. amTvalsazrisiT, kargi progra-mis ganxorcieleba daiwyoevropis rekonstruqciisa daganviTarebis bankma, romel-mac agroseqtoris dakredite-bisTvis garkveuli moculo-bis Tanxebi gamouyo qarTulbankebs.

s.e. _ evrozonis kriz-isi ramdenad aisaxeba sa-qarTveloze? mosalodne-lia Tu ara saprocentoganakveTebis zrda mimdi-nare wels?

i.k. _ bunebrivia, gavle-nas moaxdens. Cveni ekonomi-ka da sabanko seqtori sak-maod aris integrirebuliSesabamis globalur pro-cesebsa da institutebSi.evrozonis savalo krizisi

irakli

kovzanaZe

35

negatiurad aisaxeba pirvelrigSi im qarTul kompanie-bze, romlebic eqsports ax-orcieleben evrokavSirSi.krizisis pirobebSi, evrozo-naSi (da mTlianad, evrokav-SirSi) isini mi-iReben nakleb Sek-v eTebs, kon -traqtebs da, cxa-dia, eqsportis mo-culoba Semcird-eba. Tumca, isicaRsaniSnavia, romsaqarTvelos eqs-portSi evrozo-nis wili 1/6–zenaklebia.

gasaTvaliswi-nebelia isic, Tura gavlenas moaxdens eskrizisi ruseTze. am qvey-nis biujetis Semosavlebis40% da mSp-is 40-45% for-mirdeba gazis da navTobisgayidvidan, romlis didinawili modis evrokavSirze.problemaa isic, rom ruseT-Si mcxovrebi Cveni Taname-mamuleebidan maTi ojaxiswevrebi saqarTveloSidaxmarebebs fuladi trans-ferebis saxiT Reb-uloben. jamurad,marto 2011 welsmsofliodan aseTmaS e m o sulo b e b m asaqarTveloSi 1268mln. aSS dolariSeadgina, romlis Ti-Tqmis 55% ruseTzemodis. krizisis gav-lena am mxriv iqn-eba aseTi Semosu-lobebis Semcirebarogorc ruseTSi,aseve evrokavSirSi(mag., saberZneTi, ita-lia, espaneTi) mcx-ovrebi Cveni Taname-mamuleebidan.

saq arT velosbankebis ucxoursafinanso insti-tutebze damokide-

bulebis xarisxi sakmaod maRalia. 19 bankidan 18-Si ucx-ouri institutia warmodgenili, xolo sistemaSemqnelibankebis xuTeulSi damokidebulebis xarisxi, pirvel rigSi,saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebze, kidev ufro maRa-lia. am institutebis SesaZleblobebi ki, dReisTvis sak-maod SezRudulia. evrozonis savalo krizisis didi xniT

gagrZeleba saqarTvelos safinanso bazarze safinansoresursebs Seamcirebs. maRali riskebisa da saprocentoganakveTebis gamo gaizrdeba bankebisTvis sakreditoresursebis fasi. xolo safinanso resursebis wyaroebzexelmiuwvdomloba sakredito organizaciebs aiZulebs, metidepoziti moizidon Sida bazarze, rasac saprocentoganakveTebis zrda mohyveba. zogadad, ar iqneba sakmarisilikviduri resursebi seqtoris zrdis gasagrZelebladda sabanko sistemam SeiZleba daiwyos zrdis damuxruWe-ba.

Tumca, meore mxriv, gasulma 2-3 welma saqarTvelossabanko sistemas krizisTan brZolis garkveuli gamoc-

gasaTvaliswinebelia isic, Tu ra gavlenas moaxdens es krizisi

ruseTze. am qveynis biujetis Semosavlebis 40% da mSp-is 40-45%

formirdeba gazis da navTobis gayidvidan, romlis didi nawili

modis evrokavSirze. problemaa isic, rom ruseTSi mcxovrebi Cve-

ni Tanamemamuleebidan maTi ojaxis wevrebi saqarTveloSi dax-

marebebs fuladi transferebis saxiT Rebuloben. jamurad, marto

2011 wels msofliodan aseTma Semosulobebma saqarTveloSi 1268

mln. aSS dolari Seadgina, romlis TiTqmis 55% ruseTze modis.

krizisis gavlena am mxriv iqneba aseTi Semosulobebis Semcireba

rogorc ruseTSi, aseve evrokavSirSi (mag., saberZneTi, italia, es-

paneTi) mcxovrebi Cveni Tanamemamuleebidan

`

`



dileba daugrova da, xatov-nad rom vTqvaT, ̀ instituci-uri imunitetic~ ki gamou-muSava. dReisTvis bankebssakredito portfelic ukvegawmendili aqvT wlebis gan-mavlobaSi dagrovili prob-lemuri aqtivebisagan.

sabanko seqtoris

finansuri

maCveneblebi2011 wlis 1 dekembris

mdgomareobiT, saqarTvelos

sabanko seqtori 19 komerci-uli bankiTaa warmodgenili.maT Soris, 16 sawesdebo kap-italSi ucxouri kapitalismonawileobiT da 2 ucxouribankis filialiT. wina Tves-Tan SedarebiT, saqarTveloskomerciuli bankebis mTli-ani aqtivebi 44.9 mln lar-iT, anu 0.4%-iT gaizarda da11.9 mlrd lari Seadgina.sabanko seqtoris sakuTarisaxsrebi 2 mlrd lars Sead-gens, rac komerciuli banke-

bis mTliani aq-tivebis 17%-ia. ucx-ouri kapitalismonawileobam banke-bis mTlian ga-naRdebul sawesde-bo kapitalSi 81.8%Seadgina. 2011 wlisnoemberi, iseverogorc wina Tve, sa-banko seqtormamogebiT daamTavra.wminda mogebam TvisSedegebiT 55.5 mln

lari, xolo wlis da-sawyisidan 290.3 mln lariSeadgina. xuTi umsxvilesiaqtivebis mqone bankis wilisabanko seqtoris mTlian aq-tivebSi wina TvesTan Sedar-ebiT 0.6 procentuli pun-qtiT gaizarda da 80%-s mi-aRwia.

komerciuli bankebissakredito dabandebis moc-uloba (ararezidentebze ga-cemuli sesxebis CaTvliT)2011 wlis noemberSi, winaTvesTan SedarebiT, 0.5%-iT,

sistemaSemqneli bankebis xuTeulSi damokidebulebis xarisxi,

pirvel rigSi, saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebze, kidev ufro

maRalia. am institutebis SesaZleblobebi ki, dReisTvis sakmaod

SezRudulia. evrozonis savalo krizisis didi xniT gagrZeleba

saqarTvelos safinanso bazarze safinanso resursebs Seamcirebs.

maRali riskebisa da saprocento ganakveTebis gamo gaizrdeba

bankebisTvis sakredito resursebis fasi. xolo safinanso resurse-

bis wyaroebze xelmiuwvdomloba sakredito organizaciebs aiZu-

lebs, meti depoziti moizidon Sida bazarze, rasac saprocento

ganakveTebis zrda mohyveba. zogadad, ar iqneba sakmarisi likvi-

duri resursebi seqtoris zrdis gasagrZeleblad da sabanko sistemam

SeiZleba daiwyos zrdis damuxruWeba

`

`

saqarTvelos mTavrobam soflis mxardaWeris pro-grama daamtkica, romlis dasafinasebladac 2012 wlisbiujetidan 50 milioni lari gamoiyofa.

mTavrobis dadgenilebiT, aRniSnuli Tanxa Sem-degnairad nawildeba: araumetes 50-suliani sofli-saTvis – 2 000 lari; 51-dan 200 sulamde soflisaTvis– 4 000 lari; 201-dan 400 sulamde soflisaTvis – 5000 lari; 401-dan 1 000 sulamde soflisaTvis – 8 000lari; 1 000-ze metsuliani soflisaTvis – 12 000lari.

aRniSnuli programis ZiriTad miznebad, soflispirveli rigis socialur-ekonomikur saWiroebaTa da-finanseba – adgilobrivi infrastruqturis obieqte-bis aRdgena-reabilitacia da keTilmowyobis samuSaoe-bis ganxorcieleba saxeldeba.

dadgenilebis Tanaxmad, programis farglebSi gan-saxorcielebeli proeqtebi SesaZlebelia, damatebiTsaerTaSoriso da donori organizaciebis an adgilo-brivi TviTmmarTveli erTeulis saxsrebiT dafinans-des. Tanxis gamoyenebis miznobriobis gansaz-Rvra ki, soflis mosaxleobasTan mxolodwinaswari konsultaciis Semdeg moxdeba.

mTavrobam soflis mxardaWerisprograma daamtkica

37

anu 41 mln lariT gaizar-da da gasuli wlis pirvelidekembrisaTvis 7.5 mlrdlars gadaaWarba. amave peri-odSi, erovnuli valutiTgacemuli sesxebis moculo-ba 3%-iT, anu 69.5 mln lar-iT gaizarda, xolo ucxourivalutiT gacemuli sesxeb-is moculoba 0.5%-iT, anu 28.5mln lariT Semcirda.

rezidenti iuridiulipirebisaTvis 2011 wlis noem-bris bolos komerciulbankebs erovnuli valutiTgacemuli hqondaT 825.6 mlnlaris (wina TvesTan Sedar-ebiT 6%-iT anu 46.8 mlnlariT meti), xolo ucxourivalutiT – 3.4 mlrd laris(Sesabamisad, 1.2%-iT anu 39.5mln lariT naklebi) mocu-lobis sesxi.

iuridiuli pirebis dak-reditebis mTlian moculo-baSi yvelaze didi xvedriTiwili – 48.9% vaWrobis sfe-

roze modis. 2011 wlis oq-tomberTan SedarebiT, noem-berSi vaWrobis sferozegacemuli sesxebis moculo-ba 0.6%-iT anu 12.1 mln lar-iT Semcirda da 2.1 mlrd

lari Seadgina.mrewvelobaze gacemuli

sesxebis wilma iuridiulpirebze gacemuli vadianisesxebis saerTo moculoba-Si 19.8% Seadgina, rac 2011


saqarTveloSiluqs-sastumroebi

Semodiandavosis ekonomikur forumze saqar-

Tvelos premieris da investorebis Sex-vedraze cnobili gaxda, rom „Serato-nis~ brendis mflobeli saerTaSorisosastumroebis qseli „starvudi~ saqar-TveloSi gafarToebas gegmavs. „holi-dei inis~ Tbilisur sastumroSi acxa-deben, rom saqarTveloSi luqs-klasissastumroebze moTxovna maRalia.

maTive TqmiT, aseT sastumroebSi ma-Rali fasi swored bazarze luqs-kla-sis servisis deficitiT aris gamowveu-li. menejmentis gancxadebiTve, bazarzekonkurenciis gazrda fasebs daaregu-lirebs da momxmarebeli momgebian pozi-ciaSi aRmoCndeba. Tumca, „holidei inis~gancxadebiTve, am etapze qarTul baza-rze maRali klasis sastumroebTanSedarebiT moTxovna 2-3 varskvla-vian sastumroebze fiqsirdeba.

`pegasusi~ evropismimarTulebebze axalikompaniebis SemosvlissaWiroebas ver xedavsinduri avia-gigantis „jet earveisis~ saqarTveloTi

dainteresebas gamoxmaurebebi mohyva. qarTul aviabazriserT-erTi moTamaSis „pegasusis~ gancxadebiT, evropis mi-marTulebiT bazari gajerebulia da damatebiT axaliaviakompaniebis Semoyvanas ar saWiroebs. Tumca, kompaniisqarTuli warmomadgenlobis gancxadebiT, igives Tqma arSeiZleba aziis mimarTulebaze.

maTive ganmartebiT, qarTuli bazari dabalbiujetianiaviakompaniebisTvis ufro mimzidvelia. informaciisa-Tvis _ aviakopania ̀ jet earveisi~ erT dReSi 64 sxva-dasxva aeroportidan 400 reiss axorcielebs.

cxrili #1. bankebis pirveli xuTeuli aqtivebis mixedviT

(01 dekemberi 2011; milioni lari)

wyaro: www.nbg.gov.ge

http://www.nbg.gov.ge


evrozonis savalo krizisi negatiurad aisaxeba pirvel rigSi

im qarTul kompaniebze, romlebic eqsports axorcieleben evrokav-

SirSi. krizisis pirobebSi evrozonaSi (da mTlianad, evrokavSir-

Si) isini miiReben nakleb SekveTebs, kontraqtebs da, cxadia, eqspor-

tis moculoba Semcirdeba. Tumca, isic aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTve-

los eqsportSi evrozonis wili 1/6–ze naklebia

``

wlis pirveli dekembrisaT-vis 833.2 mln lariT ganisa-zRvra (1.2%-iT anu 10.0 mlnlariT meti wina TvesTanSedarebiT); 11.4% modis mSe-neblobaze, rac 482.6 mlnlaria (3.2%-iT, anu 15.7 mlnlariT naklebi, Sesabamisad).amdenad, iuridiuli pirebisdakreditebis saerTo mocu-lobis 80.1% mxolod sam darg-ze – mrewvelobaze, mSeneblo-basa da vaWrobaze modis.

2011 wlis noembris gan-mavlobaSi 1.3%-iT anu 40.6 mlnlariT gaizarda rezidentifizikuri pirebis dakredite-bis moculoba da gasuliwlis pirveli dekembrisaTvis3.1 mlrd lars miaRwia.

sabanko seqtorSi ganTa-vsebuli arasabanko depo-zitebis moculobam 2011 wlispirveli dekembrisaTvis 5.3

mlrd lars miaRw-ia, rac 155.5 mln la-riT anu 3%-iT nak-lebia gasuli wlispirveli noembri-saTvis arsebulmaCvenebelze. noem-berSi, wina TvesTanSedarebiT, adgili

hqonda samewarmeo da Siname-urneobebis seqtorebis mimdi-nare angariSebis klebas 119.1mln lariT (5.8%-iT) da va-diani depozitebis klebas 37.1mln lariT, anu 1.2%-iT. de-pozitebis dolarizaciiskoeficientma mimdinare wlispirveli noembrisaTvis 66.3%Seadgina _ 0.6 procentulipunqtiT naklebi pirvelinoembris mdgomareobasTan Se-darebiT. vadian depozitebzesaSualo wliurma Sewonil-ma saprocento ganakveTma 8.8%Seadgena, maT Soris erovnu-li valutiT ganTavsebul de-pozitebze – 12%, xolo ucx-ouri valutiT ganTavsebuldepozitebze – 8.4%. ucx-ouri valutiT ganTavsebuldepozitebSi aSS dolariswilma 74.2%, xolo evroswilma 20.6% Seadgena.

cxrili #3. rezident iuridiul pirebze gacemuli

vadiani sesxebis saprocento ganakveTebi

saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT, larebSi da dolarebSi)

(2011 wlis noemberi)


cxrili #2. rezident iuridiul pirebze gacemuli vadiani

sesxebis moculoba saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT, larebSi

da dolarebSi) (2011 wlis noemberi)




39


aqarTveloSi janda-cvis sistemis decen-

tralizaciis mimarTulebiTpirveli nabijebi 2006 welsgadaidga, ris Sedegadac sa-medicino dawesebulebebisdidi nawili kerZo seqtor-Si gadavida, sadazRvevo ko-mpaniebma ki, saxelmwifosadazRvevo programis far-glebSi, biujetidan masSta-buri dafinanseba miiRes. am-Jamad programa biujetidandaaxloebiT 140 milionilariT finansdeba, Tumca, amismiuxedavad, janmrTelobisdazRvevis sistema bolomdegamarTulad mainc ver muSa-obs da saxelmwifo sadazR-vevo programaSi CarTulisocialurad daucveli mo-qalaqeebi bevrproblemas awyde-bian.

mTavari ga-mowveva jandacvissferoSi isaa, rommosaxleobis 70%-s xeli jer isevar miuwvdeba ele-mentarul samedi-cino momsaxureba-ze. es gansakuTrebiT exebasoflad mcxovreb mosaxle-obas, romlebic arc umweoTapaketebiT arian dazRveul-ebi da verc asakis gamo mox-vdnen dazRveulTa arealSi.imis gamo, rom mosaxleobis

mosaxleobis 70%-sTvissamedicino momsaxureba

xelmiuwvdomeliaaleqsandra

laliaSvili

udidesi nawili TviTdasaqmebulia da mciredi Semosavlebiaqvs, maTi perspeqtiva uaxloes momavalSi mainc iqnan dazRveuli,mizerulia.

garda amisa, dazRveuli moqalaqeebis mniSvnelovaninawili ver iRebs jerovan samedicino momsaxurebas, risimizezic, xSir SemTxvevaSi, informirebis dabali donea.eqspertTa nawilis SefasebiT, amis erT-erTi mizezi sadazRve-

mTavari gamowveva jandacvis sferoSi isaa, rom mosaxleobis

70%-s xeli jer isev ar miuwvdeba elementarul samedicino mom-

saxurebaze. es gansakuTrebiT exeba soflad mcxovreb mosaxleobas,

romlebic arc umweoTa paketebiT arian dazRveulebi da verc

asakis gamo moxvdnen dazRveulTa arealSi. imis gamo, rom mosax-

leobis udidesi nawili TviTdasaqmebulia da mciredi Semosav-

lebi aqvs, maTi perspeqtiva uaxloes momavalSi mainc iqnan dazRveu-

li, mizerulia

`

`s


vo kompaniebis mxridan aras-rulyofili momsaxureba daxelSekrulebebSi orazro-vani muxlebis Cadebacaa. kri-tikas nawilobriv iziareben

sadazRvevo kompaniebis war-momadgenlebi, romlebic acx-adeben, rom mTavari proble-ma dRes saqarTveloSidazRvevis kulturis uqon-loba da sakiTxisadmi zer-ele damokidebulebaa. maTigancxadebiT, isini garantiasyidian, romelic fizikuradararealizebuli produqtiada amitom Zalian mniSvnelo-vania, Tu ra weria xelSek-rulebis pirobebSi. ̀ samwux-arod, amas mosaxleobis naw-ili dazRvevisas yuradRebasar aqcevs da, rodesac adami-ani dazRvevis pakets mxolodfasis mixedviT irCevs, buneb-rivia, rom rac ufro iafiaproduqti, miT uaresia piro-bebi~ _ miiCneven kompanie-bis warmomadgenlebi.

saqarTvelos sadaz-Rvevo asociaciaciis gam-geobis Tavmjdomare, devixeCinaSvili: `2006 wels,sadazRvevo industriis saer-To sapremio Semosavali 70milioni lari iyo, aqedandaaxloebiT 20%-ze nakebimodioda janmrTelobis daz-Rvevaze, dazRveuli iyo daax-

loebiT 80 000 adamiani. ammonacemebidan Cans, romdazRvevis ekonomikuri mniS-vneloba saqarTveloSi 4-5wlis win Zalian mcire iyo.

sadazRvevokompaniebicSesabamisadiyvnen patarazomis, mima-rTuli kli-entis yvelasurv ilisd a k m a y -ofilebaze,standartu-li programe-bi cota iyo,anderrait-ingi Zlieri,gayidvebi pa-tara da pro-fesiuli, Si-da auditiiyo Sedareb-

iT susti, sakmaod dabalidone iyo IT-is mxrivac. 2007wlis bolodan, rodesacdidi siaxle moxda da sax-elmwifo jandacviTi pro-gramebis gadmotana daiwyosadazRvevo programebze, ukvesxva gamowvevis winaSe dad-ga industria. naTeli gaxda,rom kompaniebis ZiriTadi bi-znesi iqneboda standartu-li produqtis SeTavazeba, Za-lian mniSvnelovani gaxda IT,standartizeba, angariSgeba,mniSvnelovani gaxda Sidakontrolis sistemebis awy-oba. 2007 wlidan zedamxed-veloba dargze Zalian aq-tiurdeba. iwyeba gacilebiTufro gamWvirvale da infor-matiuli angariSgebebissistemis danergva. 2008-2009wlebSi ukve principuli cv-lilebebi xdeba. dargi an-gariSgasawevi da mniSv-nelovani struqtura xdeba.im cifrebiT, romelic dResukve yovelTviurad qveynde-ba, SeiZleba dargis ganvi-TarebisaTvis Tvalyurisdevneba da tendenciebisdanaxva. Sedegad, 2009 wlis

bolos ukve milionamde ad-amiania saxvadasxva donissaxelmwifo programebiTdazRveuli. mniSvnelovnadaris gazrdili arasaxelm-wifo programebiT dazRveu-lTa raodenobac, daaxloe-biT 250 000.

s.e. _ ra ZiriTadi ga-mowvevebis winaSe dgasdRes jandacvis dazRve-vis sistema saqarTvelo-Si?

d.x. _ 2010 wlis bolos,mniSvnelovani optimizaciaxdeba arsebuli sadazRvevoporgramebis _ sadazRvevoprogramebs emateba wamliskomponenti. manamde saxelm-wifo sadazRvevo programe-bis ZiriTadi problema swo-red wamlis komponentis ararseboba iyo. es komponentisadazRvevo programebSi 2mniSvnelovani aspeqtiT Se-modis: esencialuri wam-lebis CamonaTvali da re-cepti. rac ase Zalian akl-da Cven sistemas. amave dros,esenciuri wamlebis Camona-Tvali aris generikebze day-rdnobiT.

garda amisa, Cemi azriT,jandacvis dafinansebis um-niSvnelovanesi problemaTanxebis simwirea. marTalia,jandacvis dafinansebazeCven mSp-is 10%-s vxarjavT,magram TviTon mSp gvaqvs pa-tara da amitom dafinanseb-is Tanxac mcire gamodis.10%-ze bevrad zemoT vercwaxval, es aris saSualomaCvenebeli, romelsac qvey-nebi jandacvis programebzexarjaven. amitom aucilebe-lia ekonomika ganviTardesda mSp gaizardos. rac imasniSavs, rom imedi imisa, romCven male gveqneba meti fu-li jandacvis sistemis dasa-finanseblad, ar arsebobs.faqtia, rom jandacvis dafi-nansebis jamuri Tanxa arisZalian mcire da, ufro met-ic, am Tanxis 40-50% aris wam-lis danaxarji, rac sruli-

devi

xeCinaSvili:

xalxi CvenTandazRveviTcdilobsdRevandeliproblemismogvarebas, rac,faqtobrivad,SeuZlebelia

41

Cveni bazari mTlianad gajerebulia brendebiT, romlebic gen-

eriul formebze 3-4-jer Zviri Rirs. eqimebis 90%-ze meti mainc

brendebs niSnaven. ratom iqcevian eqimebi ase? amis ramdenime

mizezi arsebobs _ pirveli _ dRes eqimebi arian `Tavisufal fre-

naSi~, rasac undaT imas niSnaven. ar arsebobs gawerili wesebi Tu

rogor unda ikurnebodes esa Tu is daavadeba. es aris cnobili

gaidlain protokolebis Tema da maTi ar arseboba Zalian didi

problemaa

``

ad dauSvebelia.es aris, erTi mxriv, miwo-

debis sakiTxi da bazarzearsebuli maRali fasebi,razec, sxvaTa Soris, didi gav-lena moaxdina 2009 welswamlis importis liberal-izaciam. iq, sadac konkuren-cia arsebobs, magaliTad,TbilisSi, fasebi wamlebzenel-nela mcirdeba. magramraionebSi, sadac konkuren-cia ar aris da dominirebendidi komapniebi, fasebi isevmaRalia. magram eqskluziurfasebze zewola nel-nelaxorcieldeba. garda amisa,Cveni bazari mTlianad ga-jerebulia brendebiT, rom-lebic generiul formebze3-4-jer Zviri Rirs. eqimebis90%-ze meti mainc brendebsniSnaven. ratom iqcevianeqimebi ase? amisramdenime mizeziarsebobs _ pirve-li _ dRes eqime-bi arian `Tavisu-fal frenaSi~,rasac undaT imasniSnaven. ar arse-bobs gawerili we-sebi Tu rogor

unda ikurnebodes esa Tu is daavadeba. es aris cnobiligaidlain protokolebis Tema da maTi ar arseboba Zaliandidi problemaa. aravin ukontrolebs eqimebs wesebis dac-


Sss-s sainformacio-analitikuri departamentisinformaciiT, saqarTveloSi 2011 wels 2820185 viz-itori dafiqsirda. departamenti saqarTvelos sazR-varze 2006-2012 wlebSi gadaadgilebul vizitorTastatistikur monacemebs aqveynebs, sadac aRniSnulia,rom 2006 wlidan dRemde saqarTveloSi SemosulvizitorTa raodenoba yovel wels izrdeba.

amave monacemebiT, Tu 2006 wlis ianvarSisaqarTveloSi 34761 vizitori Semovida, 2012 wlisianvarSi am ricxvma 227. 006 Seadgina. 2006 welsqveyanaSi sul 763231 ucxo qveynis vizitori dafiq-sirda, 2011 wels ki 2820185.

statistikis Tanaxmad, saqarTveloSi yvela-ze meti TurqeTis moqalaqe, Semdeg azerbaijanis,somxeTisa da ruseTis moqalaqeebi Se-modian.

saqarTveloSi 2011 wels2820185 vizitori dafiqsirda


vas. mniSvnelovani faqtoriaisic, rom eqimebs aqvT pirda-piri urTierToba far-macevtul kompaniebTan damaTi politikiT niSnavenwamlebs. anu wamlebis maRa-li fasi ganpirobebuliabevri faqtoriT. es umniS-vnelovanesi problemaa, miT

umetes, rom axali hospitleb-is gaxsnis fonze, servisismoxmareba sul ufro izrde-ba.

aqamde sadazRvevo ko-mpaniebi kapitacias rom ux-didnen pirvelad jandacvasraionebSi, gamodiodneniqidan, Tu ra servisis mi-wodeba SeeZlo am sistemas,magaliTad, lagodexis raion-Si exo ar keTdeboda, Sesa-bamisad, kapitacias roca ix-

didnen, iTvaliswinebdnenimas, rom SezRuduli iyoservisebi, romelzedac miu-wvdeboda xeli pirvelad jan-dacvas. axla miwodebis ser-visebi izrdeba, gansakuTre-biT regionebSi. izrdeba mo-xmarebac da amas sWirdebameti fuli. zemoT ki vTqviT,

rom meti fuli, jerjerobiT,faqtobrivad, ver gveqneba, am-itom aucilebelia wamliskolosaluri RirebulebisSemcireba da am Tanxis xar-jze momsaxurebis sxva ser-visebiT uzrunvelyofis ga-zrda.

jandacvis dazRvevissistemis meore didi prob-lema aris TviTdasaqmebuliadamianebis dazRveva. CemiazriT, iafi dazRvevis pro-

grama iyo am gamowvevaze pa-suxi. Tu daakvirdebiT, am po-lisebze pidapir ewera, romformalurad dasaqmebulebiamas ver gamoiyeneben. esprograma gankuTvnili iyo,ara Raribi, TviTdasaqmebu-li adamianebisaTvis. es undayofiliyo maTTvis biZgis

mimcemi, imisaTvis,rom SesuliyvnensadazRvevo sistema-Si da Semdeg feximoekidebinaT iq. amprogramiT 120 000kaci daezRva .molodini bevradmeti iyo, magram mo-saxleoba am pro-gramas Zalian

frTxilad Sexvda, bevrma vergaigo misi arsi, programashqonda cudi piari, Zalianiyo mibmuli politikur Te-mebs da a.S.

2010 wlis meore naxevri-dan didi siaxleebi aRar yo-fila. mTavari siaxle iyois, rom 1,5-2 weliwadSi hos-pitaluri infrastruqturisjer mSenebloba unda das-rulebuliyo, mere kadrebiTaRWurva da kvalificiuri

jandacvis dafinansebis umniSvnelovanesi problema Tanxebis sim-

wirea. marTalia, jandacvis dafinansebaze Cven mSp-is 10%-s vxar-

javT, magram TviTon mSp gvaqvs patara da amitom dafinansebis

Tanxac mcire gamodis. 10%-ze bevrad zemoT verc waxval, es aris

saSualo maCvenebeli, romelsac qveynebi jandacvis programebze

xarjaven. amitom aucilebelia ekonomika ganviTardes da mSp gaizar-

dos. rac imas niSavs, rom imedi imisa, rom Cven male gveqneba meti

fuli jandacvis sistemis dasafinanseblad, ar arsebobs

`

`kompania „olimpiuri varskvlavi~ yofili saburTalos bazris

teritoriaze mSeneblobas mimdinare TveSi ganaaxlebs. menejmen-tis informaciiT, kviris bolomde damtkicdeba sesxi „saqarTve-los bankSi~ da Tanxis gamoyofis Semdeg ganaxldeba samSeneblosamuSaoebi.

olimpiur varskvlavSi~ ganmartaven, rom am droisTvis kompleq-sis 80% ukve aSenebulia, xolo srulad proeqti 2013 wlis zafx-ulisTvis dasruldeba. menejmentis ganmartebiT, sesxis damtkice-bidan 1 weliwadSi kompleqsSi ganTavsebuli sacxovrebeli farTe-bi srulad mzad iqneba. sabanko sesxis moculoba saSualod 5-6mln dolari iqneba. finansuri problemebis gamo „olimpiuri var-skvlavis~ mSenebloba 18 Tvea SeCerebulia.

developeruli kompania „kid arqiteqtura~ ki axal proeqtebzeucxoel investorebTan erTad muSaobs. kompaniis direqtoris in-formaciiT, saubaria didubeSi mravalfunqciuri kompleqsis daorTaWalaSi sastumros mSeneblobaze. TiToeuli proeqti6 milioni dolaris investicias moicavs da SeTanxmebisSemTxvevaSi mSeneblobebi mimdinare wels daiwyeba.

saidan elodebian finansebssamSeneblo kompaniebi

43

sabanko-safinanso seqtoriservisis miwodebis uzrun-velyofa. Cemi warmodgeniT,sadazRvevo industriam up-recendento ram gaakeTa. qvey-anaSi amis ganxorcielebisbolomde aravis sjeroda. 1,5weliwadSi 50-mde sruliadaxali hospitalis aSenebawarmoudgenlad rTuli iyo.

s.e. _ sadazRvevo kul-tura ramdenad maRaliamosaxleobaSi?

d.x. _ namdvili sadaz-Rvevo kultura niSnavs imas,rom Sen xvalindel dRezezrunav, magram Cveni sadazRve-vo sferos problema is aris,rom xSirad xalxi CvenTandazRveviT cdilobs dRevan-deli problemis mogvarebas,rac, faqtobrivad, SeuZlebe-lia.

s.e. _ sacalo gayid-vebTan dakavSirebiT ratendenciebia?

d.x. _ sadazRvevo kompanie-bma nel-nela daiwyes yura-dRebis miqceva sacalo gay-idvebisTvisac. Cven dRes daax-loebiT gvyavs milion naxe-vari dazRveuli. aqedan sad-Rac 400 000-mde aris e.w. kor-poratiuli, anu dasaqmebis-mieri dazRveuli.milionze metiasaxelmwifo prog-ramebiT dazRveul-Ta raodenoba, xo-lo sacalo seqto-rSi dazRveulebisraodenobam daax-loebiT 40 000-s mi-aRwia.

sacalo bazrsZalian bevri sa-frTxe axlavs Tan_ pirveli, es aris antiseleq-cia, anu dasazRvevad modismarto is, visac ukve prob-lema aqvs. meorec, formalurSromaSi CaurTveli adamian-isgan Tviuri premiis miRebaZalian didi problemaa sa-qarTveloSi. praqtikac anax-ebs amas, rom sadazRvevo

premiis gadaxda yve-laze xSirad ̀ aviw-ydebaT~. amas Sex-seneba unda, Sexsene-ba ki sadazRvevokompaniebis mxridan,did danaxarjebT-anaa dakavSirebuli.xSirad wydeba kon-traqtebi amis gamo.es nawili arismniSvnelovnad da-saregulirebeli.amas emateba isic,rom samoqalaqokanonmdeblobiT, im-isaTvis, rom sa-dazRvevo kompaniamgauwyvitos kontraq-ti im dazRveulebs,romlebic sadazRve-vo premias ar ixi-dan, daaxloebiTTvenaxevari mainc arissaWiro. am periodis ganmav-lobaSi ki sadazRvevo ko-mpania mainc valdebulia mi-awodos momsaxureba dazRve-uls. es sadazRvevo kompanie-bisaTvis seriozuli prob-lemaa.

s.e. _ eqspertTa naw-ili aRniSnavs, rom gan-

sakuTrebiT saxelmwifoprogramiT dazRveul ben-eficiarTa mxolod 20%iRebs kvalificiur momsa-xurebas.

d.x. _ araviTar SemTx-vevaSi ar viziareb am Sexed-ulebas da amis gadamowmebacifrebis naxviT sul martiv-

ia. dRes jandacvis sistemiszaralianoba asulia 83%-ze,anu fulis 80%-ze meti ixde-ba zaralianobis dafarvaze.Semosuli fulis minimum 75%ixdeba sadazRvevo zaralis da-farvaze. es naTelia. piriqiT,problema aqvT sadazRvevo ko-mpaniebs. zaralianobis amxe-la maCveneblis gaTval-

iswinebiT aRar aris gasakvi-ri, Tu ratom aris sadazRvevosferos finansuri maCveneblebiuaryofiTi. es bunebrivia, rad-gan biznesis momgebianobamcirdeba da xarjebi izrde-ba. Tundac es hospitalurimSenebloba. 200 milionze metiinvesticiaa gakeTebuli. es in-

Cemi azriT, iafi dazRvevis programa iyo am gamowvevaze pa-

suxi. Tu daakvirdebiT, am polisebze pidapir ewera, rom formalu-

rad dasaqmebulebi amas ver gamoiyeneben. es programa gankuTvni-

li iyo, ara Raribi, TviTdasaqmebuli adamianebisaTvis. es unda

yofiliyo maTTvis biZgis mimcemi, imisaTvis, rom Sesuliyvnen

sadazRvevo sistemaSi da Semdeg fexi moekidebinaT iq. am pro-

gramiT 120 000 kaci daezRva. molodini bevrad meti iyo. magram

mosaxleoba am programas Zalian frTxilad Sexvda, bevrma ver

gaigo misi arsi, programas hqonda cudi piari, Zalian iyo mibmuli

politikur Temebs da a.S.

`

`


vesticiebi aisaxeba aqtivebSic, pasivebSic, mogeba-zaralSic da ase Semdeg.

sadazRvevo seqtoris zaralianobas gana-pirobebs isic, rom aqamde dabali iyo sa-dazRvevo premiebi. es ori mizeziTaa gan-pirobebuli _ momsaxurebis servisi iyo ufroiafi da moxmarebac iyo ufro dabali, samedi-cino momsaxurebaze wvdomis sxvadasxva barie-

rebis gamo. es mdgomareoba, rogorc zemoTaRvniSneT, nel-nela icvleba. dargs ZaliangauWirdeba im sadazRvevo premiebiT arseboba,romelic dRes aris. axla mTeli imedi,sadazRvevo SemTxvevebis ufro efeqtur mar-Tvazea. Zalian serizulad dgas kvalifici-uri kadrebis problemac. adgilebze kvalif-

dRes jandacvis sistemis zaralianoba asulia 83%-ze, anu fulis

80%-ze meti ixdeba zaralianobis dafarvaze. Semosuli fulis min-

imum 75% ixdeba sadazRvevo zaralis dafarvaze. es naTelia. piri-

qiT, problema aqvT sadazRvevo kompaniebs. zaralianobis amxela

maCveneblis gaTvaliswinebiT aRar aris gasakviri, Tu ratom aris

sadazRvevo sferos finansuri maCveneblebi uaryofiTi. es bune-

brivia, radgan biznesis momgebianoba mcirdeba da xarjebi izrde-

ba. Tundac es hospitaluri mSenebloba. 200 milionze meti inves-

ticiaa gakeTebuli. es investiciebi aisaxeba aqtivebSic, pasiveb-

Sic, mogeba-zaralSic da ase Semdeg

`

`

iciuri samedicino kadrebis moZieba ZalianWirs.

sadazRvevo

seqtoris cifrebi2011 wlis 9 Tvis monacemebis mixedviT,

moziduli premiis Tanxam 263 143 801 milionlari Seadgina.saidanac yvelazedidi wili, 168 153522 milioni lar-iTa da 64%-iT mo-dis jandacvis da-zRvevaze, Semdeg mo-dis qonebis daz-Rveva mozidul pre-miaSi 12.25%-iani wi-liT (32 243 137 mi-lioni lari), mesa-me adgilze ki sax-

meleTo satransporto saSualebaTa dazR-vevaa 8%-iani wiliT (21 227 204 milionilari). 2010 wlis bolosaTvis sadazRvevoseqtoris mier moziduli premia 361 457 160milion lars Seadgenda. saidanac janmrTe-lobis dazRvevaze modioda 245 796 219 mil-ioni lari (moziduli premiis 68%).

saqarTvelos savaWro-samrewvelo pala-tis prezidentis kaxa bainduraSvilis gancx-adebiT, aSS-sTan Tavisufali vaWroba in-estorebis mosazidad umniSvnelovanesi in-strumentia da qyveynis ekonomikuri zrdis-Tvis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi instru-menti.

„aSS-i bolo sami wlis ganmavlobaSisaqarTvelosTvis mTavar savaWro partnio-rad gadaiqca. kerZod, 2010 wels daaxloebiT180 mln dolaris eqsporti iyo ganxorciele-buli. amasTan, aSS msoflioSi yvelaze ufrostabiluri, gadaxdis maRali unaris saeqspor-to bazaria. bunebrivia, es xels Seuwyobseqsportis ganviTarebas da investiciebis imseqtorebSi mozidvas, saidanac eqsportis war-moeba SeiZleba~, – ganacxada bainduraSvil-ma. misive TqmiT, aSS-is pirveli piris miergakeTebuli gancxadeba nebismieri kerZoinvestorisTvis didi rwmenaa daSesabamisad, isini investiciebsufro Tamamad ganaxorcieleben.

aSS-sTan Tavisufali vaWroba inestorebismosazidad umniSvnelovanesi instrumentia

45

reitingebi

akredito reintingSisafrangeTi, avstria

da kidev Svidi qveyana, romel-Ta Sorisac italia da safra-ngeTi moxvdnen, Standard &Poor’s (S&P)-is 2012 wlis 13ianvris SefasebiT, Camo-qveiTdnen. aq ̀ Tars~ ricxvsdanaSauli ar miuZRvis daarc es informaciaa moulod-neli. safrangeTisa da sxvadanarCeni qveynebisaTvis sak-redito reitingis Semcire-ba logikuri nabijia.

axla evrozonis saxelm-wifoebs Soris urTierTobaaxal safexurze gadadis.cxrili gviCvenebs Standard& Poor’s (S&P)-is reitingebsevro-zonisaTvis 1995 wlidan5-wliani intervaliT. cxri-li naTlad mogviTxrobsmzardi progresis Sesaxeb,romelic gasuli dekadis Suaperiodamde grZeldeba, rode-sac erTiani valutis yvela17 wevri A da ufro maRaliSefasebiT sargeblobs. raTqma unda, msoflios yvelamdidari qveyana im drois-aTvis aSkarad karg ekonomikurgaremos qmnida, reitingma evrosivrcis qveynebis kreditunar-ianobis uaryofiTisaldos Semcirebaasaxa. es, egreT wo-debuli, ̀ konvergen-ciuli TamaSis~ na-wili iyo.

davalianebiskrizisis dawyebisSemdeg wevri qvey-nebi kvlav daib-nen, TiTqos maTSoris saberZneTigamoirCeoda, magram aSkaradCanda, rom mas arc sxva qvey-nebi CamorCebodnen. Standard& Poor’s (S&P)-is dabalmaSefasebam qveynebis reaqciaufro gaamwvava.

arareitinguli evropa

mTavari sakiTxia, Turogor ganviTardeba es mod-eli. krizisis adreul fa-zaSi miiCnevdnen, rom evro-zonis momavali azrTa sxva-dasxvaobiT daxasiaTdeboda,wevr qveynebs SeiZleba saer-To valuta hqonodaT, magrammaT aRar eqnebodaT sesxis

Sesabamisi danaxarjebi. sa-frangeTis msgavsi qveynebinaklebs gadaixdidnen, por-tugaliis msgavsi qveynebi kibevrad mets.

evrozonis miswrafeba

fiskalur politikaSi saer-To wesebis damkvidrebisad-mi, rac misi strategiismixedviT, momavali krizise-bis Tavidan acilebiskenaris gamiznuli, savsebiTSesaZlebelia valebis gaer-Tianebad `gadaiTargmnos~.Tu evrozona gaerTianebad

darCeba, misi logikuri Sede-gi SesaZlebelia iyos `ko-nvergenciuli TamaSis~ sxvanairsaxeoba. warsulisgangansxvavebiT, arsebul mdgo-mareobas ver uwodebT kon-

aSS-Si acxadeben, rom axali bazrebi _ CineTi, brazilia, samxreT

korea da taivani 2012 wels investorTa yuradRebis Rirsni gaxde-

bian, radgan es ekonomikebi ganagrZoben maTi monetaruli poli-

tikis princi pebis Serbilebas, 2012 wels investorebisTvis mniS-

vnelovani iqneba saimedo ekonomika da bazris xarisxi, ufro

didi yuradreba daeTmoba zrdaze orientebul globalur ekonomikas,

radgan axal bazrebs naklebi sabiujeto deficiti aqvT dasavle-

Tis qveynebTan SedarebiT da aucilebel saxrsrebs floben saer-

TaSoriso sisustis Casanacvelblad

`

`s


evrozonis miswrafeba fiskalur politikaSi saerTo wesebis

damkvidrebisadmi, rac misi strategiis mixedviT, momavali kriz-

isebis Tavidan acilebisken aris gamiznuli, savsebiT SesaZlebe-

lia valebis gaerTianebad `gadaiTargmnos~

` `

vergenciuls, sadac yvela mi-iswrafvis yvelaze kredi-tunariani wevrobis safex-urisken. konvergenciuli,

mimarTuli unda iyos saSu-alo da ara mowinave safex-urisken, oqros qveynebsudidesi pasuxismgebloba

aqvT axali wevrebis mimarT,reitingebi ki yuradRebasaqceven valebis gadanawile-bas.

safrangeTisa da avstra-liis mimarT Standard &Poor’s (S&P)-is verdiqti,romelic sxva wevr qveyneb-

sac exeba, or Zalian gansx-vavebul dinamikas moicavs.erTi aris gangrZobadi dab-neuloba evrozonis saxelm-wifoebs Soris, romelsac er-Tiani valutis danawevrebaiwvevs qveynebSi. meore _konvergenciuli azris xe-laxali kalibrizacia kon-figuraciaSecvlil evrozo-naSi, sadac AAA qveynebs ufroemuqrebaT mdgomareobisgauareseba sxva qveynebisgan,vidre sxva qveynebs AAA qvey-nebis mier daxmarebis miRe-ba da reitingis gaumjobese-ba.

Tu asea, safrangeTis re-itingis kleba ufro mniS-vnelovania, vidre germaniisreitingis SenarCuneba. iqneb,germanias imaze adre unda

ganecada reitingiskleba, sanam evrosproeqts usafrTx-od gamoacxadebd-nen?

Standard &Poor’s (S&P)-is Tanaxmad,evropis kavSiris lidereb-ma evrozonis kriziss aras-wori diagnozi dausves da

saerTaSoriso sareitingo saagento Fitch-ma evrozonis

5 saxelmwifos – italiis, espaneTis, belgiis, sloveniisada kviprosis reitingebi Seamcira. sareitingo „sasjelis~Tavidan acileba mxolod irlandiam SeZlo, romlis reit-ingic ВВВ+ doneze damtkicda prognoziT „negatiuri.~

saagentos pres-relizSi naTqvamia, rom italiis gr-Zelvadiani sakredito reitingi А+ dan А- mde Semcirda,belgiis АА+dan АА mde, espaneTis da sloveniis АА- danА mde, kviprosis ki BBB dan BBB- mde prognoziT „negati-uri.~

amgvarad, Fitch-ma Tavisi sityva Seasrula: jer kidev2011 wlis dekemberSi yvela am qveynis reitingi SesaZloSemcirebis gadaxedvis siaSi iqna gadayvanili. saagentosspecialistebma ganacxades, rom savaluto blokSi daval-ianebis krizisis mogvarebaSi progress ver xedaven. gardaamisa, Fitch-i acxadebs, rom saberZneTis defolti aucile-blad moxdeba da es siurprizi ar unda iyos. saagentosvaraudiT, saubari iqneba kontrolirebad defoltze. Seg-axsenebT: mimdinare wlis 13 ianvars kidev erTma gavle-nianma saagentom Standard & Poor’s-ma evrozonis9 saxelmwios reitingebi Seamcira.

saberZneTis defolti aucileblad moxdeba

* 13 ianvris gancxadebis Semdegwyaro: Standard & Poor’s

47

orientacia aiRes sabiujeto mzardi prob-lebis mogvarebaze, romelic mTliani prob-lemis mxolod erT nawils Seadgenda dasakmarisi yuradReba ar dauTmes krizisisgamomwvev siRrmiseul mizezebs: gansxvave-buli konkurentunarianoba evrozonisbirTvis Semadgenel Zlier ekonomikebsada periferiebs Soris, aseve uzarmazarisaerTaSoriso valebi, rac am ufsklul-idan iyo amoCrili. reformebi mxolod damxolod fiskaluri simkacrisken iyo mima-rTuli, rac TviT-damarcxebis iar-aRad gadaiqca.

e v rozo n i sbankebi ki kapita-lis gazrdas gaS-magebiT cdilobd-nen, sagadasaxadobalansis Sesam-cireblad tri-lionebs aqtivebSi flangavdnen, aSS-isinvestorebi axali problemis winaSe aR-moCndnen: iafad moepovebinaT evropuli va-li an sxvagan ganexorcielebinaT investi-cia. ̀ morgan stenlis~ analitikosebis gaTv-liT, evropis safinanso institutebi mo-mavali 18 Tvis ganmavlobaSi aqtivebidandaaxloebiT 3 trilion dolars amoiReben,rom gamoimuSavon 115 mlrd dolari axalkapitalSi, evropis bankis xelmZRvanelobamaTgan moiTxovs defoltisgan dacvis ber-ketis aspeqtSi ivnisisaTvis koleqtiur zr-das. amisaTvis, bankebi aqtivebs potenciurimyidvelebis misazidad dabal SefasebasaZleven.

evropaSi aSS-is investorebs optimis-turad uyureben. 2011 wlis mesame kvartal-Si aSS-is pretenziebi evropelebis mima-rT 135 mlrd dolariT gaizarda gasulkvartalTan SedarebiT. amerikis safinan-so firmebi da korporaciebi evropulvalebs nTqaven da maT amoRebas sulmouT-menlad elian.

myidvelebi ki frTxiloben! investore-bi acxadeben, rom Tu hej-fondis menejerixar, umjobesia Seni fuli evropul valebisbazars moarido, radgan awmyos RirebulebasgverdiT recesiis aCrdili udgas. espaneTi,italia, saberZneTi da portugalia, aravinicis rodis dadgeba maTi defoltis dRe daarc is icis vinmem, rogor moiqceva am faq-tis sapasuxod evropis kavSiris xelmZRv-aneloba, es ori komponenti saxeucnobijokris rols TamaSobs.

bazari imaze didxans

SeiZleba darCes iracionaluri,

vidre Tqven SeiZleba

warmoidginoT

hej-fondebi riskebs ar uSindebian, Tum-ca bevrma maTganma 2011 wels seriozulidartyma miiRo. amis miuxedavad, bevr hej-fonds damatebiTi riskis ar eSinia, rogorcwesi, hejirebis fondi sakmaod likviduriada marJas SeuZlia klientis fuli xangr-

Zlivad Caketos, bazris arastabilurobasdaelodos aqtivis Sefasebamde. swored aseiqceva bevri hej-fondi da bazris arastabi-lurobas potenciur upiratesobad miiCnevs.magram, usafrTxo, riskis dabali doniT gamor-Ceuli investicia ar aris aucilebladsaWiro iaraRi 2012 wels fulis saSovnelad.

aSS-Si acxadeben, rom axali bazrebi _CineTi, brazilia, samxreT korea da taivani2012 wels investorTa yuradRebis Rirsnigaxdebian, radgan es ekonomikebi ganagrZobenmaTi monetaruli politikis principebisSerbilebas, 2012 wels investorebisTvis mniS-vnelovani iqneba saimedo ekonomika da ba-zris xarisxi, ufro didi yuradreba daeTmobazrdaze orientebul globalur ekonomikas,radgan axal bazrebs naklebi sabiujeto def-iciti aqvT dasavleTis qveynebTan SedarebiTda aucilebel saxrsrebs floben saerTa-Soriso sisustis Casanacvleblad.

investorebi acxadeben, rom Tu hej-fondis menejeri xar, um-

jobesia Seni fuli evropul valebis bazars moarido, radgan awmy-

os Rirebulebas gverdiT recesiis aCrdili udgas. espaneTi, ital-

ia, saberZneTi da portugalia, aravin icis rodis dadgeba maTi

defoltis dRe da arc is icis vinmem, rogor moiqceva am faqtis

sapasuxod evropis kavSiris xelmZRvaneloba, es ori komponenti

saxeucnobi jokris rols TamaSobs

`

`

reitingebi

biznes-subieqtTaricxvi izrdeba

2012 wlis ianvarSi saqarTveloSi 4196 biznes-sub-ieqti daregistrirda.

es maCvenebeli 2011 wlis imave Tvis monacems 7.7%-iTaRemateba, xolo wina TvesTan SedarebiT 22.7%-iT naklebia,rac sezonur faqtors ukavSirdeba: biznesis registraciisaspeqtiT ianvari minimaluri aqtiurobiT gamoirCeva.

mimdinare wlis ianvarSi biznes-subieqtTa umetesobaindividualuri mewarmis da SezRuduli pasuxism-geblobis sazogadoebis saxiT daregistrirda.


soflios wamyvani ek-onomistebi 2012 wels

msoflioSi ekonomikur re-cesias prognozireben. bri-taneli ekonomistebis varau-diT, recesia gardauvalia,maTi SefasebiT, momavalwels evropaSi mosalodne-lia warmoebis vardna da zr-dis tempebis Semcireba. 2011wlis Sedegebidan gamom-dinare, msgavsi prognozigasakviri ar aris. saagentoBloomberg-is cnobiT, gasuliwlis ganmavlobaSi investo-rebma msoflio safondo bir-Jebze 6,3 trilioni dolaridakarges, msoflio biznesiskapitalizacia ki 12,1%-iTSemcirda da 45,7 triliondolaramde daeca. evropiscentraluri bankis erT-erTixelmZRvanelis, evald novot-nis gancxadebiT, evrozona`rbili recesiis~ riskis qve-Saa.

ekonomikuri krizisma ev-rozona evros gauqmebis sa-frTxis winaSe daayena. se-riozuli saSiSroeba emuqre-ba germaniasac. TNS Emnid-ismier jer kidev seqtemberSi

Catarebuli gamokiTxvebisTanaxmad, germanelTa naxe-varze mets evros gauqmebada erovnul valutaze dabru-neba surda. evropis erTianivalutis gauqmebis safrTxemevropis liderebi seriozu-lad daafiqra.

germaniis kancleris gan-cxadebiT, germania ar dauS-vebs evros gauqmebas, misiTqmiT, Tu romelime qveyanaevros brunvidan amoiRebs,amiT evrozonas seriozulsafrTxes miayenebs. germane-li eqspertTa nawili evros

gauqmebas mxars uWers, nawi-lis gancxadebiT ki evrosgadasarCenad evropul banksproblemuri obligaciebisyidva unda daevalos, Semdegevrozonis problemuri qvey-nebis biujetis xarjviT naw-ilze evrokomisiis kontro-

li dawesdes da cvlilebe-bi Sevides evrokavSiriskanonmdeblobaSic. germane-li politikosisa da bunde-sTagis wevris, Teo vaigelisTqmiT ki, evros seriozulisafrTxe, pirvel rigSi, sa-berZneTSi elis.

marTalia, evro-zonam 2011 wlisivlissa da seqtem-berSi 0,2%-ianizrda ganicada, ma-gram bolo ramden-ime Tvea evropaSiekonomikuri zrdaar SeiniSneba, rac

msoflio wamyvan ekonomis-tebs saimedo prognozebisgakeTebis saSualebas araZlevs. sareitingo saagen-tom 9 evropul qveyanas Se-umcira reitingebi. Standard& Poor’s-ma safrangeTis gr-Zelvadiani sakredito reit-

azias umuSevrobaemuqreba

saagento Bloomberg-is cnobiT, gasuli wlis ganmavlobaSi inves-

torebma msoflio safondo birJebze 6,3 trilioni dolari dakarges,

msoflio biznesis kapitalizacia ki 12,1%-iT Semcirda da 45,7

trilion dolaramde daeca. evropis centraluri bankis erT-erTi

xelmZRvanelis, evald novotnis gancxadebiT, evrozona `rbili

recesiis~ riskis qveSaa

`

`m

49

evrozonis krizisiingi erTi safexuriT, ААА-dan АА+-mde Seamcira. aseveSemcirda avstriis reitin-gi, italiis reitingma А-danВВВ+ mde daiwia, espaneTisamki AA- dan А-mde negatiuriprognoziT, rac imas niSnavs,rom uaxloes momavalSi amqveynebis maCveneblebi kidevgadaixedeba. erTi safexuriTgauuaresdaT reitingi mal-tas, slovenias da slovakeTs,ori punqtiT kvipross daportugalias. igive darCagermaniis, niderlandebis,fineTis, luqsemburgis, bel-giis da irlandiis reitinge-bi, Tumca negatiuri prog-noziT.

saagentos eqspertTa Se-fasebiT, evrozonis qveynebiarasakmaris nabijebs dgamenregionSi krizisis mosag-vareblad. evropeli lide-rebi amerikul saagentosSefasebebs arc amJamadiziareben (iseve rogorcevropis stabilurobis fon-dis reitingis gansazRvrsSemTxvevaSi) da acxadeben,rom evropam damoukidebelisareitingo saagentoebi undaSeqmnas da ar unda daeyrd-nos amerikul saagentoebs.Standard Poor’s-is gadawyveti-lebas evrozonis 15 qveynidan9-sTvis reitingis Semcire-bis Sesaxeb mc-dari uwoda ev-rokomisiamac. sa-pasuxod, S&P-ispres-mdivanma mar-tin uinma uaryomosazreba, imisSesaxeb, rom saagen-tos gadawyveti-leba, SesaZloa, politikurimotivebiT iyos nakarnaxevida sakuTari organizaciissaerTaSoriso reputaciasgausva xazi. mis TqmiT, saagen-tos gadawyvetileba gamox-atavs misi eqspertebis mo-sazrebas imis Sesaxeb, romevrozonis qveynebis xelmZR-

vanelTa iniciativebi araris sakmarisi krizisisnegatiuri Sedegebis ko-mpensaciisTvis. reitingebisSemcirebis ZiriTadi faq-torebi dakreditebis pirobe-bis gauareseba, evrozonissul ufro bevri qveynisTvisriskebis gazrda, ekonomikurizrdis prognozis Sem-cireba da evrokav-Siris liderebsSoris krizisis gada-laxvis saerTo xedvisararsebobaa.

magram, SeiZlebaiTqvas, rom evrozonisliderebis sapasuxogamosvlebma TavisSedegi gamoiRo. Stan-dard & Poor’s-is mierevrozonis qveynebi-sTvis reitingebis Sem-cireba bazrebisTvisTiTqmis SeumCnevelidarCa. investorebi,romlebic am movlenasukve ramdenime kviraaelodebodnen, kmay-ofilni darCnen poli-tikosebis gancxadebiTimis Sesaxeb, rom situaciamaTi kontrolis qveSaa. re-itingebis SokismomgvrelSemcirebebs safondo bazre-bze panika ar gamouwvevia.piriqiT _ ZiriTadma evrop-

ulma indeqsebma vaWrobamwvane zonaSi daasrules dasaSualod 0 ,5 -0 , 6%-iTmoimates. investorebi daamS-vida evropeli politikose-bis gancxadebebma imis Sesax-eb, rom qveynebis reitingeb-is es Semcireba aranairadar aisaxeba finansuri sta-

bilizaciis evropuli fon-dis EFSF-is poziciebze.

parizma investorebs sak-uTari poziciebis simyaresaqmiT daumtkica: qveynis fi-nansTa saministrom reitin-gebis Semcirebidan ramden-ime dReSi moklevadiani sax-elmwifo valdebulebebi gay-

ida. 8,6 miliardi dolarissaerTo moculobis instru-mentebi vaWrobis monawileeb-ma ramdenime wuTis ganmav-lobaSi SeiZines. Sedegad,wliurma ganakveTma 0,406%

Seadgina, rac wina emisiazemcire maCvenebelia, rodesacsafrangeTi umaRles reit-ings flobda. safrangeTisada avstriis mier reitingisdakargva ar asaxula maTiobligaciebis dinamikazemeorad bazarze. safrangeT-is aTwlianma qaRaldebma

amerikeli finansisti evros kraxs prognozirebs. sorosi miiC-

nevs, rom es msoflio finansuri sistemisTvis katastrofa iqneba.

misive SefasebiT, evros krizisi msofliosTvis ufro seriozulia,

vidre 2008 wlis ekonomikuri krizisi iyo, radgan arsebobs Zalian

didi albaToba imisa, rom evros krizisi jaWvuri reaqciiT gavr-

celdeba mTel msoflioSi

`

`evald novotni:evrozona `rbilirecesiis~ riskisqveSaa


saprocento ganakveTi reit-ingis Semcirebamde periodisdoneze (3,07%) SeinarCunes.avstriis obligaciebis mo-mgebianoba ki mxolod erTisabaziso punqtiT, 3,17%-mdegaizarda.

miuxedavad amisa, beberikontinentis finansuri mdgo-mareoba kvlav Zalian sax-ifaToa. rTuli ekonomikurisituaciis gamo evropuliqveynebis xelisuflebebimkacrad gaakritika amerikel-ma finansistma jorj soros-mac. evrozonaSi arsebulikrizisis gaRrmavebaSi bra-li man piradad germaniiskancler, angela merkelsacdasdo. amerikeli finansis-ti evros kraxs prognozir-ebs. sorosi miiCnevs, rom esmsoflio finansuri siste-misTvis katastrofa iqneba.

misive SefasebiT, evros kriz-isi msofliosTvis ufro se-riozulia, vidre 2008 wlisekonomikuri krizisi iyo, ra-dgan arsebobs Zalian didialbaToba imisa, rom evroskrizisi jaWvuri reaqciiTgavrceldeba mTel msofli-oSi.

magaliTad, aziis regi-nosaTvis umTavres riskaddRes evrozonis krizisimiiCneva, romelic bankebsa daevropis monetaruli siste-mis erTianobas safrTxesuqmnis. mimdinare krizisiaris mTavari dabrkolebaaziaSi warmoebis ganviTare-bisTvis. globalur bazre-bze msgavsi sistemuri Sokiiwvevs Sida zrdis meqanizme-bis moSlas iseT qveynebSi,rogoricaa indoeTi da Cine-Ti.

garda amisa,finansur organiza-ciebSi personalisSemcirebis glo-baluri tendenciaaziasac miswvda,romelic jer kidevaxlaxans bevri ba-nkisTvis ganviTare-

bis prioritetuli mima-rTuleba iyo. saqmiani aq-tivobis Semcireba da ko-mpaniebis mogebis klebabankebis xelmZRvanelobebsaiZulebs, ara mxolod xar-jebi Seamciron, aramed mTe-li ganyofilebebi daxuronda axlaxans ayvanili Tan-amSromlebi gaaTavisuflon.umsxvilesi evropuli daamerikuli bankebi aziaSixarjebis Semcirebis gzebseZeben. saubaria rogorc war-momadgenlobiTi xarjebisSekvecaze, ise TanamSromleb-is masStabur Semcirebaze,rasac aqamde dasavluri ko-mpaniebi warmatebiT arideb-dnen Tavs. Bank of America,Merrill Lynch-i mimdinare kva-rtalSi regionSi mmarTve-li direqtorebis 20%-iTSemcirebas apireben.

finansur organizaciebSi personalis Semcirebis globaluri

tendencia aziasac miswvda, romelic jer kidev axlaxans bevri

bankisTvis ganviTarebis prioritetuli mimarTuleba iyo. saqmi-

ani aqtivobis Semcireba da kompaniebis mogebis kleba bankebis

xelmZRvanelobebs aiZulebs, ara mxolod xarjebi Seamciron, aramed

mTeli ganyofilebebi daxuron da axlaxans ayvanili TanamSrom-

lebi gaaTavisuflon

`

`

msoflio ekonomikaSi arsebuli krizisisfonze, saqarTvelos premier-ministri darwmuneb-ulia, rom 2012 saqarTveloSi investiciis gansax-orcieleblad saukeTeso iqneba. nika gilaurisganmartebiT, amas ramdenime faqtori ganapirobebs.

premieris TqmiT, upirvelesad, saqarTveloregionis lojistikur, turistul, energetikulcentrad Camoyalibda, aqvs Ria ekonomika, qveyana-Si korufciis dabali donea da saqarTveloSimakroekonomikuri stabilurobaa.

gilauris gancxadebiT, rac unda proble-muri iyos msoflioSi arsebuli viTareba, am 4parametris arsebobis SemTxvevaSi, stabiluro-bis SenarCuneba SesaZlebelia. premier-ministr-ma 2011 weli gaixsena da aRniSna, rom is dasav-leT-aRmosavleT evropisaTvis Zalian rTuliiyo, xolo saqarTvelom stabilurobaSeinarCuna.

2012 weli saqarTveloSiinvestirebisTvis saukeTeso iqneba

51

evrozonis krizisimanamde erT-erTi aziuri

ganyofilebis daxurvis Sesa-xeb Credit Suisse-ma ganacxada.gamonaklisi arc avstrali-uri Macquarie Group-i gaxda,romelmac TanamSromlebisnawili daiTxova. analogiurzomebs mimarTa Morgan Stan-ley-m da espanurma BBVA-m, rom-lebic gasuli wlis Sua xa-nebamde regionSi sakuTar re-surss aqtiurad zrdidnen.Dealogic-is monace-mebiT, azia-wynariokeanis regionSiaqciebis pirvela-di ganTavsebis mo-culoba gasulwels 169 miliar-di dolaridan 84miliard dola-ramde Semcirda.

Standard & Poor’s-is mierevrozonis 9 qveynisTvis rei-tingebis Semcirebis fonze,aziis sabirJo indeqsebic da-eca. kerZod, iaponuri Nikkei1,6%-iT gaufasurda. taiva-nuri indeqsi ki 0,8%-iT Sem-cirda, miuxedavad moqmediprezidentis meore vadiT

arCevisa, rac, analitikoseb-is azriT, dadebiTad undaasaxuliyo ekonomikis mdgo-mareobaze.

gamomdinare iqidan, romevrozonis krizisi aziidaneqsportis Semcirebas gamoi-wvevs, aziuri valutebi erT-maneTis miyolebiT ufasurd-ebian. saTaveSi ki tailan-duri batia. ianvris SuaricxvebisaTvis Bloomberg-

JPMorgan Asia Dollar indeqsidaeca da tailanduri batibolo 17 Tvis manZilze yve-laze metad gaufasurda. dae-ca MSCI azia wynari-okeanissaaqcio indeqsi.

`evropis valebis kriz-isis gamo SeSfoTeba inves-torTa Soris sul ufroZlierdeba, isini riskis gaw-

evas eridebian, es undoblo-ba ki uaryofiTad aisaxebaaziuri eqsportisa da azi-uri valutebis perspeqti-vaze~ _ ambobs hideki haiaSi,tokioSi iaponiis ekonomikiskvleviTi centris eqsperti.mimdinare wlis dasawyisSierTmaneTis miyolebiT gaufa-surda tailandis, bankogis,filipinebis da samxreT ko-reis valutebi.

`win aris mniSvnelovanimovlenebi, gansakuTrebulcvlilebebs veliT itali-isa da espaneTisagan, asevesxva qveynebis centraluribankebis qmedebebisgan, amit-omac valutiT movaWreebs argvsurs zedmet riskze was-la~ _ acxadebs seulSi ar-sebuli koreis samrewvelo

gamomdinare iqidan, rom evrozonis krizisi aziidan eqspor-

tis Semcirebas gamoiwvevs, aziuri valutebi erTmaneTis miyolebiT

ufasurdebian. saTaveSi ki tailanduri batia. ianvris Sua ricxve-

bisaTvis Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar indeqsi daeca da tailanduri

bati bolo 17 Tvis manZilze yvelaze metad gaufasurda. daeca

MSCI azia-wynari okeanis saaqcio indeqsi

`

`teleradiokorporacia BBC-m aRiara, rom bolo 4 wlis

ganmavlobaSi evrokavSirisgan TiTqmis 5 milioni dolarisgranti miiRo. garda amisa, 2003 wlidan kompanias evropissainvesticio bankma 223 milioni dolaris kreditebi gadasca.

did britaneTSi SiSoben, rom evropul dafinansebas,SesaZloa, telekompaniis mier evropaSi mimdinare movle-nebis gaSuqebaze gavlena moexdina. britaneli deputatisdominik raabis TqmiT, kompaniis mier evrokavSirisganfulis miReba eWvqveS ayenebs BBC-is saredaqcio poli-tikis damoukideblobas.

korporaciis oficialurma warmomadgenelma ki ga-nacxada, rom evrokavSirisgan miRebuli fuli kvleviTiproeqtebis dafinansebisTvis iyo gankuTvnili da isinimiRebuli grantebis mcire wils Seadgenen. rac Seexebaevropuli bankis kreditebs, misi TqmiT, am Tanxebis miRe-bas mxolod komerciuli safuZveli hqonda da es faqtiaranair gavlenas ar axdens saredaqcio poli-tikaze.

BBC-m evrokavSirisganmilionobiT dolaris miReba aRiara


bankis savaluto dileri liiang hiuni.

aziuri ekonomika

2011-2012 wlebis mijnaze,aziis qveynebi ekonomikebiganviTarebis sxvadasxva ten-denciebiT xasiaTdebian.malaiziis eqsporti da war-

moeba noembris bolosTvisbolo oTxi Tvis ganmavlo-baSi izrdeboda neli tempe-biT, filipinebis eqsporti

ki bolo 7 Tvis ganmavlo-baSi mcirdeboda. singapurismTavrobis mier gamoTqmulivaraudis Tanaxmad, 2011 wlis5%-iani zrdisa da recesiisSemdgomi 2010 wlis 14.5%-ianimniSvnelovani winsvlis mi-uxedavad, 2012 wels ekono-mikuri zrda 1%-dan 3%-mdeSemcirdeba.

iaponiam, SesaZloa, evro-zonis bedi gaiziaros, Tukifinansuri sistemis gajansa-Rebaze droulad ar izru-nebs. aseTi gancxadebiT qvey-nis finansTa ministri ZiunaZumi gamovida. miuxedavadimisa, rom iaponur bankebSievropis fasiani qaRaldeb-is wili SedarebiT mcirea

da evropis ramdenime qvey-nis reitingis Semcirebisnegatiuri gavlena iaponiisekonomikaze mosalodneli

ar aris. analitikosebis um-ravlesoba qveynis finansurmdgomareobas kritikulad arafasebs. Tumca mTavrobaamzadebs zomebs, romlebicsamomxmareblo gadasaxadisgaormagebas da socialuridazRvevisa da sapensio re-formis ganxorcielebas iT-valiswinebs.

indoeTis rupia boloperiodSi myardeba. warmoe-ba indoeTSi 2011 wlis noem-berSi gasuli wlis noem-berTan SedarebiT 5.9%-iTgaizrda, maSin, roca oqtomb-erSi 5.1%-iani kleba iyodafiqsirebuli. eqspertTaSefasebiT, noembris warmate-buli Sedegebi ganapirobaindoeTis sarezervo bankisqmedebam, romelmac noembrisdasawyisSi 2.92 miliardiaSS dolaris ucxouri va-luta gayida. maSin rocarupia mkveTrad ecemoda. oq-tomberSi es maCvenebelimxolod 943 milioni aSSdolari iyo.

CineTis valuta nel-nela ufasurdeba. dekembri-dan moyolebuli iuani do-laris mimarT 0.38 procen-tuli punqtiT gaiufasurda.SegaxsenebT, rom 1994 wlismere, iuanis yvelaze didiTviuri gaufasureba dafiq-sirda 2010 wlis agvistoSi,0.48 procentuli punqtiT. sa-momxmareblo fasebis indeq-si CineTSi 2011 wlis deke-mberSi 2010 wlis analogiurperiodTan SedarebiT 4.1%-iT gaizrda.

miuxedavad am tendencie-bisa, iuani poziciebis msof-

lioSi nel-nelaimyarebs. london-ma mniSvnelovaninabiji gadadga iu-aniT vaWrobis ums-xviles centrad ga-daqcevisken. aseTmatransformaciambritaneTis dedaqa-laqi, SesaZloa, ev-rozonisgan nakle-

bad damokidebuli gaxadosadgilobriv bankebSi tanza-qciebis gazrdisa da aTaso-biT axali samuSao adgilisSeqmnis gziT. specialuriSeTanxmeba am Temaze 18 ian-vars, hongkongSi iqna miRweu-li didi britaneTis finan-sTa ministr jorj osbornsada hongkongis mTavar finan-

londonma mniSvnelovani nabiji gadadga iuaniT vaWrobis um-

sxviles centrad gadaqcevisken. aseTma transformaciam britane-

Tis dedaqalaqi, SesaZloa, evrozonisgan naklebad damokidebuli

gaxados adgilobriv bankebSi tanzaqciebis gazrdisa da aTasobiT

axali samuSao adgilis Seqmnis gziT. specialuri SeTanxmeba am

Temaze 18 ianvars, hongkongSi iqna miRweuli didi britaneTis

finansTa ministr jorj osbornsa da hongkongis mTavar finansur

maregulirebels norman Cans Soris

`

`jorj sorosma

krizisisgaRrmavebaSi

brali angelamerkels dasdo

53

evrozonis krizisisur maregulirebels normanCans Soris. mxareebma moil-aparakes specialuri brit-anul-Cinuri forumis Seqm-naze, romlis mizanicaa sak-liringo sistemebis SeqmnissaukeTeso gzebis moZebna,iuanSi nominirebuli finan-suri instrumentebis Se-muSaveba da am bazarze likvi-durobis gazrda. savaraudod,„mrgvali magida~ weliwad-Si orjer Sekrebs finansuriseqtoris iseT msxvil wa-rmomadgenlebs, rogorebicaaHSBC, Standard Chartered, Bankof China, Deutsche Bank da Bar-clays. CineTSi osbornis viz-iti pekinsa da londonsSoris seqtemberSi miRweu-li SeTanxmebis gagrZele-baa.

CineTisTvis finansurpartniorad londonis daara, magaliTad, niu-iorkisSerCeva, SemTxveviTi ar aris:britanuli bankebis pozi-ciebi aziaSi tradiciuladZlieria. 2010 wels StandardChartered-ma istoriaSi pirve-lad, iuanSi nominirebuli,ucxouri kompaniis obliga-

Ziun aZumi:iaponiam, SesaZloa,evrozonis bedigaiziaros, Tukifinansuri sistemisgajansaRebazedroulad ar izrunebs

ciebis emisia ganaxorciela.maSin McDonalds-ma wliuri3%-is ganakveTiT 30 milio-ni dolaris miReba SeZlo.

londonis aRmosavlur-

ma orientaciam, SesaZloa,arsebiTad gaamyaros misipoziciebi planetis umsx-vilesi finansuri centreb-is siaSi. es gansakuTrebiTmniSvnelovania evrokavSir-

Si didi britaneTis finan-suri izolaciis safrTxisfonze, risi mizezic arislondonis uari, SemoiRosgadasaxadi finansur tran-

zaqciebze. „hongkongTansaqmiani urTierTobebi lon-dons SesaZleblobas miscems,gaafarTovos horizontebi danawilobriv mainc gaTavisu-fldes evrozonaze damokide-

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis direqtori, kris-

tin lagardi miiCnevs, rom evrokavSiris saxelmwifoebidavalianebis krizisTan brZolis procesSi swor gza-ze dganan. es mosazreba man davosSi mimdinare msoflioekonomikur forumze gamosvlisas gamoTqva. „krizisisdaZlevisTvis didi samuSao tardeba. Cven progresismowmeni varT~, – xazi gausva fondis xelmZRvanelma.amasTan, lagardi aucileblad miiCnevs stabilurobisqmediTi meqanizmis Seqmnas.

manamde davosSi gamosvlisas germaniis kanclermaangela merkelma ganacxada, rom germania gamodis savalu-to fodis moTxovnis winaaRmdeg evropis stabilizaci-is meqanizmis sakredito potencialis gazrdis Sesaxeb.„Cven vapirebT evros mxardaWeras, Tumca ver mogcemTimis garantias, rac Cvens ZalebSi ar aris. germanias arsurs carieli dapirebebis micema, radganac maTi arSes-ruleba iqneba Zlieri dartyma evropuli bazrebisTvis~,– ganacxada merkelma da aRniSna, rom evropi-sadmi ndoba Seirya.

evropa swor gzaze dgas


bulebisgan. amas, SesaZloa,Taviseburi diversifikaciavuwodoT. aq bevri ram Cinurmxarezea damokidebuli,

romelic, rogorc Cans, Zalianpozitiuradaa ganwyobiliaseTi proeqtisadmi da mza-daa am wamowyebaSi londonsmaqsimaluri mxardaWera aR-mouCinos~, _ acxadebs SocieteGenerale-is ufrosi ekonomis-ti, braian hilardi.

CineTis saxalxo bankis

monacemebiT, iuanSi saerTa-Soriso savaWro brunvayovelwliurad daaxloebiT330 miliard dolars Sead-

gens. kidev 17,5 miliardiCinur valutaSi nominire-bul pirdapir ucxour in-vesticiebze modis. ChathamHouse-is SefasebiT ki, ukve2020 wlisTvis iuanSi saer-TaSoriso savaWro brunvatrilion dolars miaRwevs.

rac Seexeba 2012 wlis

prognozs, msoflio bankmaglobaluri ekonomikis zrdisprognozi Seamcira. bankiseqspertTa SeafsebiT, glo-baluri ekonomika 2012 wels2,5%-iT gaizrdeba. manamde mso-flio banki varaudobda, rommsoflio ekonomika wels 3,6%-iT gaizrdeboda. bankma 2013wlis prognozic Seamcira _3,6-dan 3,1%-mde. ganviTarebadiqveynebis mSp 5,4%-iT gaizrde-ba da ara 6,2-iT, rogorc msof-lio banki manamde prog-nozirebda. ganviTarebul qvey-nebSi ki ekonomikis zrda mx-olod 2,4%-iani iqneba.

msoflio vaWrobis moc-uloba 2012 wels 4,7%-iTmoimatebs, manamde ki banki6,6%-ian zrdas varaudobda.globaluri ekonomikisTvisZiriTad safrTxeebad ki ba-nki evrozonis krizissa damsoflio finansuri siste-mis mowyvladobas asaxelebs.evropis savalo krizisi pir-velad 2010 wels gamoikveTa,rodesac defoltis zRvarzesaberZneTi aRmoCnda. qveynissaxelmwifo vali mSp-is 130%-s Seadgenda. miuxedavadevrokavSiris mier miRebulizomebisa, male dartymis qveSsxva evropuli qveynebi aR-moCndnen.

amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis prezidentibarak obama saerTaSoriso RonisZieba National PrayerBreakfast-ze sityviT gamovida, romlis drosacqristianul Rirebulebebze isaubra.

misi TqmiT, is erTgulia qristianuli prin-cipisa, romelic susti da upovari adamianebisdaxmarebas gulisxmobs. amasTan, obamam gamoTqvamzadyofna, uqoneli adamianebis dasaxmarebladuari Tqvas sikeTeebis nawilze – iseTebze,rogoricaa sagadasaxado SeRavaTebi. preziden-tis TqmiT, ekonomikis kuTxiT, es gonivrulinabiji iqneba.

obamam kidev erT qristianul principzegaamaxvila yuradReba, romlis mixedviTad, racufro uzrunvelyofilia adamiani, miT ufro xSir-

obamam sakuTari ekonomikuri xedvebiqristianuli principebiT axsna

ad unda gaunawilos man simdidre garSemo myo-febs.

Statebis prezidentis sityva mis mimarT re-spublikuri partiis kritikis fonze gaisma. amukanasknelT ar moswonT prezidentis mcdeloba,uzrunvelyofili amerikelebis xarjze sagada-saxado Semosavlebi gazardos. es punqti erT-erTi sadavo momentia, ris gamoc respublikelebida demokratebi didi xnis ganmavlobaSi ver ax-erxebdnen SeTanxmebas saxelmwifo xarjebis Sem-cirebaze. Sedegad amerikis SeerTebuli Statebisabiujeto krizisis zRvarze aRmoCnda. obamasgamosvla aseve daemTxva winasaarCevno saprezi-dento kampanias.

55

msoflio ekonomika

011 wlis SedegebismixedviT, amerikis

ekonomikam mniSvnelovanzRvars gadaabija da qveyn-is saxelmwifo valma II msof-lio omis Semdgom pirveladgadaaWarba qveynis mSp-s. 2012wlis dasawyisisTvis aSS-isvali 15,23 trilion dola-ramde gaizarda. qveyana meva-le-rekordsmeni qveynebisklubSi Sevida, vali ekono-mikis moculobas aRemateba.bolo periodSi mSp-is 100%-ze maRali vali hqondaT mx-olod iaponias, italias, por-tugaliasa da saberZneTs.

aSS-is ekonomika (rogorcbritaneTisa da kapitaliz-mis msgavsi modelis mqonesxva qveynebs) aqamde ganic-dis Zlieri riskebis zriTgamowveul kriziss. cno-bilma amerikelma ekonomist-ma, haimen minskma 1986 welsgamoaqveyna wigni`arastabiluri ek-onomikebis sta-bilzacia~, sadacman SemogvTavazasafinanso arasta-bilurobis hi-poTeza. misi az-riT, valebis done udrisekonomikis sisustes da aseveganisazRvreba ekonomikuriciklebiT. ekonomikuri ke-TildReobis xangrZlivobaekonomikis simyifes zrdis:adamianebi, romlebic inves-ticiebisa da danazogebisSesaxeb gadawyvetilebebs

zrdis bumiganadgurebasudebs saTaves

iReben, safrTxeebs srulad ver afaseben da TavianT Sesa-Zleblobebs gadaWarbebiT uyureben. ase rom, zrdis bumiganadgurebas udebs saTaves.

2008-2009 wlis winandeli dekada kerZo kreditis gafar-Toebis periodi gaxda. es exeba rogorc kompaniebs, aseveSinameurneobebs, gansakuTrebiT aSS-Si, did britaneTSi,irlandiasa da xmelTaSua zRvis qveynebSi. sakredito bumiefuZneboda uZrav qonebaze fasebis zrdas, igi ganviTarebu-li qveynebis mosaxleobas aZlevda ufro meti simdidris

ekonomikuri keTildReobis xangrZlivoba ekonomikis simyifes

zrdis: adamianebi, romlebic investiciebisa da danazogebis Sesax-

eb gadawyvetilebebs iReben, safrTxeebs srulad ver afaseben da

TavianT SesaZleblobebs gadaWarbebiT uyureben. ase rom, zrdis

bumi ganadgurebas udebs saTaves

` `yvelaze cudi scenariT

2


SegrZnebas, rac ufro didi sesxis aRebis SesaZleblobasiZleoda. rogorc ki uZravi qonebis bazarze buSti CaifuSa,aman fiskaluri deficitis mkveTri zrda gamoiwvia _ faq-tiurad avtomaturad.

sabiujeto deficitebis mkveTri zrda im sami meqani-zmidan erT-erTi gaxda, romelmac xeli SeuSala dasavlurekonomikebs ganmeorebiT did depresiaSi gadaSvebuliyvnen,safinanso intervenciebTan da saprocento ganakveTebis

mkveTr SemcirebasTan kombi-naciaSi. roca fulis Rire-buleba nulTan axlos aris(realur gamoxatulebaSiuaryofiTic ki) gadamxdelu-narian saxelmwifoebs sabi-ujeti deficiti daexmaraerToblivi moTxovnis Senar-CunebaSi, aseve kerZo daval-ianebis Semcirebis procesisstimulirebaSi da kerZo aq-tivebis xarisxis gaumjobese-baSi.

kerZo seqtori Tavs axlabevrad ukeT grZnobs. ase ma-

galiTad, 2011 wlisbolsoTvis safin-anso seqtoris va-lis mimaTeba mSp-sTan aSS-Si dab-runda 2001 wlisdoneze. xolo Si-nameurneobebis va-lis done _ 2003wlis maCvenebels

miuaxlovda.garda amisa, aSS-is uZravi

qonebis bazarma stabilize-bis niSnebi aCvena: axaliproeqtebis ricxvis Semcir-eba Sewyda, xolo fasebisvardna, prognozebis mixed-viT, 2012 wlisTvis unda das-

aSS-is uZravi qonebis bazarma stabilizebis niSnebi aCvena:

axali proeqtebis ricxvis Semcireba Sewyda, xolo fasebis vardna,

prognozebis mixedviT, 2012 wlisTvis unda dasruldes. es niSnavs,

rom aSS-is ekonomika SeZlebs zrdas daubrundes. Tumca, SezRudu-

lad. amis damabrkolebel faqtorebad SeiZleba iqces saxelmwifo

xarjebis Semcireba, sakredito pauzis gagrZeleba, evrozonis kolaf-

sis riskebi da savaraudod, situacia navTobis bazarze

`

`saberZneTma Tavidan unda aicilos is mZ-

ime krizisi, romelic uaxloes momavalSi elisda safrTxe, rom saberZneTi evrozonas da-tovebs, aRar unda arseobobdes. winaaRmdegSemTxvevaSi, evropa saberZneTis ar daexmareba.amis Sesaxeb germaniis finansTa ministrmavolfgan Soiblem davosis forumze gamosv-lisas ganacxada.

finansTa ministris am gancxadebas dadeb-iTi reaqciebi mohyva italiis, espaneTisa dasafrangeTis mxridan. maTi warmomadgenlebisTqmiT, isini saberZneTis kreditorebTan aq-tiur molaparakebebs daiwyeben, raTa qveyanaWaobidan amoiyvanon. safrangeTis finansTaministris gancxadebiT, evropas yovelTvis mzadunda hqondes samaSvelo meqanizmirigi qveynebis, am SemTxvevaSi kisaberZneTis dasaxmareblad.

germanias saberZneTis evrozonisgareT xilva ar surs

devid kameroni:

qveynis saxelmwifo valisSemcireba imaze rTuliaRmoCnda, vidre Cems gundSivinmes SeeZlo warmoedgina

57

msoflio ekonomikaruldes. es niSnavs, rom aSS-is ekonomika SeZlebs zrdasdaubrundes. Tumca, SezRudulad. amis damabrkolebel fa-qtorebad SeiZleba iqces saxelmwifo xarjebis Semcireba,sakredito pauzis gagrZeleba, evrozonis kolafsis riskebida savaraudod, situacia navTobis bazarze.

amerika elodeba

eqspertebi fiqroben, rom yvela SemTxvevaSi, am zrdis-gan ar SeiZleba mdgradobas velodoT, radgan es zrdadaubalansebel ekonomikaSi moxdeba, romelic advilad Sei-Zleba axal recesiaSi gadaeSvas. saqme mxolod sagareoSokebs ar exeba, iseTs, rogoric aris evrozonis krizisi,romelsac xelewifeba aSS-is safinanso sistemis parali-zeba da eqsportis Semcireba. narCundeba mniSvnelovaniSida riskebic. aSS-is federaluri sarezevro sistemis ekon-omistis, jeremi nalivekis am cota xnis win gamoqveynebuligamokvleva aCvenebs, rom qveynis ekonomika 2012 welSi ̀ gaC-erebis siswrafiT~ Sevida. mkvlevarma aRmoaCina, rom aSS-Sibolo 60 wlis manZilze 70%-is SemTxvevaSi, roca mSp-isrealuri zrda wina welTan SedarebiT 2%-ze dabla eSve-boda, Semdeg weliwads recesia xdeboda. amis ZiriTadimizezi is aris,rom 2%-s qvemoTekonomikuri zr-dis pirobebSi qve-yanaSi izrdeba um-uSevroba, xolobiznesi investi-rebas wyvets, racqmnis TviTdamWernegatiur trends(Tavidan fsiqo-logiuri, xolo Se-mdgom ekonomikuri). 2011 wlis I naxevarSi aSS-is mSp-isrealuri zrda 2%-s qvemoT iyo. Tumca, III kvartalSi mSp-msaSiS niSnulamde aiwia, es SeiZleba arasakmarisi aRmoCndes,rom ekonomika sarisko zonidan gamovides. davalianebismaRali donis SenarCuneba tempebis aRdgenas daabrkolebs.aSS-is mSp-s zrdis konsesus-prognozi 2013-2016 wlebisTvismxolod 2,2%-s Seadgens weliwadSi (swored im saSiS zo-nasTan axlos). es mniSvnelovnad dabalia ara mxolod1990-iani wlebis saSualo tempebTan SedarebiT (3,2% weli-wadSi), aramed winakrisizul aTwleulSi (2,7%). zrdis aRmd-gen fazaSi tempi, rogorc wesi, Cveulebrivze maRalia, radgankompaniebs SeuZliaT gamoiyenon adre dautvirTavi simZlavree-bi, SedarebiT iafad aiyvanon mravalricxovani umuSevariadamianebi, aseve, gamoiyenon kapitali, romlis investireba arxdeboda krizisis periodSi.

aSS-is ekonomikis fundamentaluri mdgomareoba sak-maod urTierTsawinaaRmdegoa. erTi mxriv, saxelmwifo fin-ansebi amazrzen mdgomareobaSia da savsebiT gaugebaria,masTan mimarTebaSi ra SeiZleba moxerxdes. ekonomikis zrdisarc Tu maRali tempebi TiTqmis SeuZlebels xdis sabiuje-to deficitis kuTxiT gacxadebuli gegmebis Sesrulebas.saxelmwifos mouwevs rTuli arCevanis gakeTeba: Seamciros

aSS-Si ekonomikis zrdis arc Tu maRali tempebi TiTqmis Seu-

Zlebels xdis sabiujeto deficitis kuTxiT gacxadebuli gegmebis

Sesrulebas. saxelmwifos mouwevs rTuli arCevanis gakeTeba: Seam-

ciros saxelmwifo xarjebi an aswios gadasaxadebi. aq gasaTval-

iswinebelia didi britaneTis sul axali gamocdileba. saxelm-

wifo xarjebis Semcireba iqamde, vidre ekonomikuri zrda ar daubrun-

deba mdgrad traeqtorias, saSiSia _ amiT mxolod umuSevroba

izrdeba da mcirdeba erToblivi moTxovna. balansirebis sirTu-

leebi ukve britaneTis xelisuflebamac aRiara

`̀wyaro: aSS-is federalurisarezervo sistema (fss)

ukanasknel wlebSi aSS-is biujetis

deficiti Seadgens mSp-is 8-10%-s.

aSS-m faqtobrivad dakarga

kontroli Tavis valze. zrdis

SenarCuneba xerxdeba mxolod

ekonomikis fuliT gajerebis xarjze

aSS-is saxelmwifo vali

%, mSp

wyaro: aSS-is fss

aSS-is finansuri seqtori da

Sinameurneobebi amcireben

TavianT valebs, didwilad imis

xarjze, rom mTavroba _ zrdis

%, mSp

finansuriseqtori

mTavroba arafinansuri seqtori

Sinameurneobebi


saxelmwifo xarjebi anaswios gadasaxadebi. aqgasaTvaliswinebelia didibritaneTis sul axali ga-mocdileba. saxelmwifo xar-jebis Semcireba iqamde, vi-dre ekonomikuri zrda ardaubrundeba mdgrad traeq-torias, saSiSia _ amiT mx-olod umuSevroba izrdeba

da mcirdeba erToblivimoTxovna. balansirebissirTuleebi ukve britaneTisxelisuflebamac aRiara.nomebris bolos didi bri-taneTis premier-ministrma,devid kameronma ganacxada,`qveynis saxelmwifo valisSemcireba imaze rTuli aR-moCnda, vidre Cems gundSivinmes SeeZlo warmoedgina~.ase rom, amocanas, romelicaSS-is winaSe dgas, rTuligadasawyvetia.

meore mxriv ki, amerikisfulad-savaluto politika

savsebiT adeqvaturia. fed-eralurma sarezervo sistemamekonomika fuliT zedmetadgaajera da es kerZo seqtorsSesaZleblobas aZlevs Seam-ciros vali, xolo saxelm-wifos _ sesxis RirebulebaSeamciros da moemsaxurossaxelmwifo vals. aseTi midg-oma ekonomikas zedapirze

tivtivis saSualebas aZlevs,magram ekonomikuri zrdis ax-ali talRis agorebis garan-tias ver iZleva, rogorc esiaponiis gamocdilebam aCve-na _ iaponelebi aTwleulzemetia, rac nulovani ga-nakveTiT cxovroben. amerikisekonomikaSi fulis moZrao-bis siCqare istoriul mini-mumamde daeca, es ki niSnavs,rom ZiriTadi moTamaSeebijerjerobiT molodinisreJimSi arian, radgan koni-unqturis ramdenadme gaum-jobesebas ganixilaven, ro-gorc Zalianaramdgrads imi-sTvis, rom ̀ brZo-laSi gadaeSvan~.eqspertebi amboben,rom zrdis axalitalRis inicire-ba mxolod biz-ness SeuZlia,roca is ganvi-Tarebis axalstrategias Seimu-Savebs, magram aqam-de, rogorc eqs-pertebs miaCniaT,jer Sors aris.

biznesis dax-mareba dasuste-bul erovnulvalutasac Seu-Zlia. dolaris ga-

myarebis mravalwliani ten-dencia misi savaWro partnio-ri qveynebis valutebis mim-arT, dairRva. es ki SesaZle-blobas iZleva amerikis ter-itoriaze samuSao adgilebidabrundes. ganviTarebad qve-ynebSi warmoebis ganTavsebaukve arc ise rentabeluria,rogorc ramdenime wlis win.

am qveynebSi keTi-ldReobis zrdam,pirvel rigSi, Ci-neTSi, iq warmo-ebuli produqciisTviTRirebulebiszrda gamoiwvia.dolaris dasuste-ba mxolod amyarebsamerikuli sawar-

moebis konkurentunarianobistendencias. garda amisa,politikuri amocana _ sam-uSao adgilebis ̀ reimporti~ukve dRis wesrigSi dadga.kompaniebs, romlebic aSS-SisamuSao adgilebs qmnian, ukvearc Tu urigo sagadasaxadoSeRavaTebi eZlevaT. prezi-dent barak obamas mierinicirebuli gegmis Rire-buleba fasdeba naxevartrilion dolarad. xoloianvris dasawyisSi obamaxalxs dahpirda, rom daas-abuTebda aSS-Si investire-

aSS-Si bolo 60 wlis manZilze 70%-is SemTxvevaSi, roca mSp-is

realuri zrda wina welTan SedarebiT 2%-ze dabla eSveboda, Sem-

deg weliwads recesia xdeboda. amis ZiriTadi mizezi is aris, rom

2%-s qvemoT ekonomikuri zrdis pirobebSi qveyanaSi izrdeba

umuSevroba, xolo biznesi investirebas wyvets, rac qmnis TviT-

damWer negatiur trends (Tavidan fsiqologiuri, xolo Semdgom

ekonomikuri)

`

`fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris mkveTri

Semcireba mianiSnebs imaze, rom

aSS-is ekonomikuri eqspansiis

periodi finansuri teqnologiebis

ganviTarebis bazaze dasrulda

fulis mimoqcevis siCqare (M2)

nominaluri kvartaluri mSp-ismimarTeba saSualokvartalur M2-Tan

wyaro: aSS-is fss

pirvelad ramdenime aTwleulis

ganmavlobaSi dolaris realurma

kursma Sewyvita zrda

aSS dolaris kursi, gaangariSebuliurTierTvaWrobis gaTvaliswinebiT

mlrd dol.

yvela savaWro partniori qveynis valutasTan

garda im qveynebis valutebisa, romlebsacaqvT farTo moxmareba sazRvargareT

wyaro: aSS-is fss

59

msoflio ekonomikabis upiratesobebze da biz-ness arwmunebda samuSao adg-ilebis Seqmnis upirateso-baze auTsorsingis strate-giis sawinaaRmdegod. ara my-isierad, magram aseTi strate-gia ramdenime wlis SemdegTvalnaTel Sedegs moitans.aRsaniSnia, rom bolo wleb-Si aSS-is sagadamxdelo bal-ansis deficiti mniSvnelo-vanad Semcirda. aSS-is nawi-lobrivi reindustrialiaz-acia SeiZleba ekonomikurizrdis axali talRis erT-erTi Semadgeneli gaxdes.

yvelaze cudi

scenariT

a m e r i k i sfonze, evrokavSir-Si situacia bev-rad SemaSfoTe-blad gamoiyureba.miuxedavad imisa,rom liderebiyvelanairad cdi-loben, erTianievropuli valutaS e i n a r C u n o n ,

amerikis fulad-savaluto politika savsebiT adeqvaturia. fed-

eralurma sarezervo sistemam ekonomika fuliT zedmetad gaajera

da es kerZo seqtors SesaZleblobas aZlevs Seamciros vali, xolo

saxelmwifos _ sesxis Rirebuleba Seamciros da moemsaxuros sax-

elmwifo vals. aseTi midgoma ekonomikas zedapirze tivtivis

saSualebas aZlevs, magram ekonomikuri zrdis axali talRis ago-

rebis garantias ver iZleva, rogorc es iaponiis gamocdilebam

aCvena _ iaponelebi aTwleulze metia, rac nulovani ganakveTiT

cxovroben

``

didi britaneTis xelisuflebam, SesaZloa, vestmisteris sasax-le rus an Cinel investorebs mihyidos. aseTi moulodneligadawyvetileba SeiZleba miRebul iqnas imis gamo, rom Senoba,romelSic britanuli parlamentia ganTavsebuli, ingreva da tem-zaSi iZireba. rekonstruqcia ki gadamxdelebs miliardi girvanqasterlingi daujdebodaT.

The Telegraph-is informaciiT, istoriul nagebobas safrTxeemuqreba. imis gamo, rom mas wyali faravs, big-beni 18 diumiTgadaixara. Senobis gadarCenis gegmebs Soris ganixileba misirusi an Cineli investorebisTvis miyidvis SesaZlebloba. aseTSemTxvevaSi, parlamenti saxelmwifo sakuTrebaSi myof rome-lime SenobaSi an sulac axal nagebobaSi gadava. im SemTxvevaSiki, Tu misi rekonstruqcia gadawydeba, specialistebis TqmiT,amisTvis ramdenime weli iqneba saWiro.

vestmisteris sasaxle meTerTmete saukuneSia aSenebuli. 1834wlis xanZris Semdeg is xelaxla aages. nageboba TandaTanobiTwyalSi Cadis, risi mizezic metropolitenis xazisgagrZeleba da miwisqveSa parkingis mowyobaa.

inglisis parlamentis Senoba SesaZloarusma an Cinelma investorma iyidos

barak obama


damoukidebeli ekonomiste-bi miiCneven, rom evrozonisdaSlis SesaZlebloba sak-maod dasaSvebia. EconomistIntelligence Unit (EIU)-is kv-leviTi centri miiCnevs, rom40%-iani albaTobiT uaxloe-si ori wlis ganmavlobaSievrozona daiSleba. misi daS-lis SemTxvevaSi (gaerTiane-bidan calkeuli wevrebisgasvlisasac), evrozonisekonomikaSi moxdeba mSp-is10-dan 25%-mde Semcireba. amasgamoiwvevs sabanko sistemiskolafsi da seriozuli ko-rporatiuli gakotrebebi _msgavsi araferi momxdara2008 wels investbank Leh-man Brothers-is kraxis Sem-

amerikis fonze, evrokavSirSi situacia bevrad SemaSfoTeblad

gamoiyureba. miuxedavad imisa, rom liderebi yvelanairad cdi-

loben, erTiani evropuli valuta SeinarCunon, damoukidebeli

ekonomistebi miiCneven, rom evrozonis daSlis SesaZlebloba sak-

maod dasaSvebia. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)-is kvleviTi centri mi-

iCnevs, rom 40%-iani albaTobiT uaxloesi ori wlis ganmavlobaSi

evrozona daiSleba

``

movaleTa reestrSi Canawerebis raodenoba isev mzardia. aRsrulebisbiuros oficialuri monacemebiT, dReisTvis reestrSi 59 aTasze meti Canaw-eri fiqsirdeba, rac wlis bolos arsebul maCvenebelze 3 aTasiT metia.

gasul wels movaleTa reestrSi Canawerebis raodenoba rekorduli40 aTasiT gaizarda. reestri 2010 wlis ianvridan amoqmedda. igi mo-nacemTa erTiani bazaa, romelSic davalianebis mqone yvela fizikurida iuridiuli piri xvdeba. aRsrulebis biuro movales sasamar-Tlos gadawyvetilebis Semdeg valis dasafarad 7 dRes aZlevs.winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi uZrav-moZrav qonebas uyadaRebs.

movaleTa reestrisCanawerebi isev izrdeba

maqsimumTan SedarebiT amerikis

mimdinare sagadasaxdelo balansis

deficiti TiTqmis orjer Semcirda.

miuxedavad uzarmazari

absoluturi sididisa, igi Seadgens

aSS-is mSp-s mxolod 3%-s

mlrd dol. prognozi

wyaro: aSS-is fss

deg. evrozonis qveynebsa dakompaniebs Soris bevri ko-merciuli kontraqti iurid-iul gaurkvevlobaSi aRmoCn-deba. evropis mniSvnelovannawilSi da, savaraudod,mTlianad msoflio ekonomi-kaSi dairRveva teqnolo-giuri jaWvi (ufro masSta-buri, vidre es iyo iaponuriavtokoncernisTvis 2011 wlismiwisZvris Sedegebi). evro-zonis SedarebiT metad da-zaralebul qveynebSi Se-saZlebelia samrewvelo war-moeba saerTod Sewydes.mTavrobis Semosavlebi ga-dasaxadebidan mniSvnelovnadSemcirdeba, radganac ko-mpaniebis Semosavlebi gaqre-

ba da milionobiTTanamSromels ga-aTavisufleben sam-saxuridan. evrozo-nis yvela qveyana-Si savale tvirTimk veTrad gai -zrdeba. umuSevrobaSeiZleba 20%-mdegaizardos evrozo-

nis yofili wevri qveynebisumetesobaSi, xolo zogierTmaTganSi (saberZneTi, portu-galia, espaneTi) _ 50%-mde.SedarebiT sust qveynebSiSemoiReben SezRudvas kapi-talis moZraobaze fulisgaqcevis SesaCereblad (Se-darebiT Zlier qveynebSicSesaZloa igive moxdes imi-sTvis, rom mkveTri revalva-cia aicilon Tavidan). evro-pis centraluri banki, TukimomavalSic iarsebebs, iZule-buli iqneba ufro da ufroaqtiurad beWdos fuli, romsaxlemwifo xarjebi daafi-nansos da daicvas sakvanZosaxelmwifo seqtorebi (armia,policia, saxelmwifo mmar-Tveloba) kolafsisagan. dro-Ta ganmavlobaSi situaciagamosworebas daiwyebs, magramevropis qveynebs wlebi das-WirdebaT, rom cxovrebis wi-nakrizisul dones daub-rundnen. saxelmwifoebi iZu-

61

msoflio ekonomikalebulni iqnebian ekonomika-Si ufro mniSvnelovaniroli iTamaSon _ bevri msx-vili kompania da bankidaeqvemdebareba nacional-izacias.

evropis mniSvnelovaninawili iZulebiT daubrun-deba erovnul valutebs,romelic mimoqcevaSi 1999wels iyo. savaluto kurseb-is konkretuli dinamikawinaswar Zneli saTqmelia,radgan masze gavlenas sax-elmwifo SezRudvebi iqonie-bs. Tuki warmovidgenT, romvalutebi Tavisufal mimo-qcevaSi iqnebian, maSin evro-zonis sxvadasxva qveynisvalutebi diametraluradurTierTsawinaaRmdego mima-rTulebebiT imoZraveben. ma-galiTad, axali berZnulivaluta savaraudod dakargavsTavisi pirvandeli Rire-bulebis 60-70%-s. portugalia-Si mosalodnelia 40-50%-ianidevalvacia, espaneTi _ 30-40%,irlandia da italia _ daax-loebiT 20-30%. amasTan, ger-maniis, niderlandebis, fine-Tisa da avstriis valutebigaizrdeba. germaniis SemTx-vevaSi revalvaciam SeiZlebaSeadginos 10-20%, rac eqspor-tze orientirebuli qveynis-Tvis dartyma aRmoCndeba.

ase gamoiyureba EconomistIntelligence Unit (EIU)-is mierwarmodgenili evrozonis daS-lis scenari. ramdenad yurad-saRebia igi unda miviRoT Tuara seriozulad? eqsperteb-is mosazrebiT, evrokavSirSipolitikuri gaugebrobebi mov-lenebis aseT ganviTarebassavsebiT realurs xdis. sabi-ujeto ekonomias, romelsac ad-gili aqvs TiTqmis yvela qvey-anaSi, SeuZlia mxolod Sidae-vropuli daZabuloba gaamwva-vos. is ufro evros gamyare-bas iwvevs, romelic amis gare-Sec Zalian Zlieria evrokav-Siris problemuri qveynebi-

„saqstatis~ cnobiT, 2011 wlis monacemebiT, saqarTvelos sagareosavaWro brunvam (araorganizebuli vaWrobis gareSe) 9247 mln aSSdolari Seadgina, rac wina wlis maCvenebelTan SedarebiT, 36%-iTgaizarda. aqedan eqsporti 2 189 mln aSS dolari iyo, 39%-iT meti 2010welTan SedarebiT, xolo importi 7058 mln aSS dolari, 34%-iT metiwina welTan SedarebiT.

savaWro deficitis absoluturi maCveneblis zrdis miuxedavad,misi wili mTlian sagareo savaWro brunvaSi 2007 wlis Semdeg ten-denciurad klebadia. am maCvenebelma yvelaze dabal niSnuls 2011wels miaRwia da 52.7 %-i Seadgina.

saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis geografiuli areali yovelwli-urad farTovdeba. 2011 wlisTvis savaWro partniori qveynebis ricxvmaistoriul maqsimums miaRwia da 147 qveyana Seadgina, rac 6.5%-iTmetia wina wlis monacemebTan SedarebiT.

saqarTvelos savaWropartniori qveynebis ricxvmaistoriul maqsimums miaRwia

sTvis. `sameu-lis~ mier SeT-avazebuli re-formebi (evro-komisia, saerTa-Soriso sava-luto fondi daevropis cen-traluri banki)evrokavSirisbevr qveyanaSicxovrebis do-nis seriozulvardnas gamoi-wvevs. es ki cen-tridanul Zal-ebs aamoqmedebs,romelic isedacZlierdeba bri-useliTa da ber-liniT gamow-veuli dagrovili gaRizianebis gamo.

mTavari ki is aris, rom evropeli politikosebi arafersakeTeben da arc amboben axali samuSao adgilebis Seqm-nisa da warmoebis ganviTarebis aucileblobis Sesaxeb.wmindad finansuri RonisZiebebiT aseTi krizisi dauZlev-elia. jerjerobiT yvelaferi keTdeba im mimarTulebiT,rom evropelebis cxovrebis done Seesabamebodes warmoeb-is dones, magram, eqspertebis azriT, es aris gza gaxangrZli-vebul vardnisa da stagnaciisken. yovelive es ki evrokav-Sirisa da evrozonis perspeqtivebs arc ise sasixarulosxdis.


2012 – ekonomikuriapokalifsi evropaSi

soflio ekonomiste-bis prognozebiT, 2012

wels globaluri ekonomikamsoflio finansur krizis-Tan mebrZolis rolSi dar-Ceba, dinamiurobas dakargavs,magram swori mimarTulebiTsvlas ganagrZobs. analiti-

kosebi acxadeben, rom kriz-isisgan dauZlurebuli evro-pa globaluri ekonomikissvlisTvis seriozuli mux-ruWi iqneba. msoflio ekono-mikis gaZlierebaSi mimdinarewels sakuTar wvlils Sei-tanen aziuri qveynebis eko-

nomikebi, magram azia namd-vilad ar iqneba mowodebissimaRleze. aSS gaagrZelebsmisi ekonomikis mokrZale-bul zrdas, brazilia kiwlis orTqmavlis funqciasSeasrulebs da laTinuriamerikis, meqsikisa da argen-

tinis uRels SeuerTdeba.Tumca, rogor moaxerxebs

uRaribesi mosaxleobis mqo-ne brazilia msoflio ekon-omikis zrdaSi lomis wvli-lis Setanas mimdinare mim-dinare weli gvaCvenebs, rad-gan am ekonomikas naklebad

gaaCnia Sida moxmarebis zr-dis perspeqtiva. ufro met-ic, braziliaSi jer kidevmkveTrad dgas Savkanianimosaxleobis problema, isi-ni dRemde SezRudulni ari-an Semosavlis, ganaTlebisda jandacvis xelmisawvdo-mobis kuTxiT. CineTi ki, dRe-mde braziliis uZlieres me-toqed rCeba. CineTi ganagr-Zobs saSualo fenis Seqmnasmis qveyanaSi, izrdeba dasaqme-bulTa xelfasebi, rac Sidamoxmarebis dones mniSvnelo-vnad zrdis.

cxadia, rom analitikosebs,nebiT Tu uneblied, surTCineTis ekonomikis daCrdil-va sxva ganviTarebadi ekono-mikebis zrdis fonze, magramfaqtebisa da cifrebis mixed-viT, CineTi msoflios meoreumsxvilesi ekonomikaa, 2012wels ki is seriozul Tav-satexs gauCens msoflios,romelic evrozonis ekonomi-kur problemebzea gadarTu-li. 2007 wlidan CineTisekonomikis zrda aSS-is zr-das uswrebs, mniSvnelovaniamisi TanamSromloba da eqs-portis moculoba ganviTare-bad ekonomikebSi, sadac Cine-

Ti pirvelobas ara-vis uTmobs. didmaCineTma yvela fonimoimzada imisaTvis,rom 2012 wels mso-flio ekonomikaSimTavari roli Seas-rulos. globaluriekonomikis modelis

cvlileba CineTis mTavarirolis gareSe ki, arc erTekonomists ar warmoudgenia.msoflio ekonomikis zrda Ci-neTis ekonomikis ganviTare-bis interesebSi Sedis da masyvelaze metad aSinebs recesi-is aCrdili. Tumca, mimdinare

msoflio ekonomikis gaZlierebaSi mimdinare wels sakuTar

wvlils Seitanen aziuri qveynebis ekonomikebi, magram azia namd-

vilad ar iqneba mowodebis simaRleze. aSS gaagrZelebs misi

ekonomikis mokrZalebul zrdas, brazilia ki wlis orTqmavlis

funqcias Seasrulebs da laTinuri amerikis, meqsikisa da argenti-

nis uRels SeuerTdeba

`

`

m

63

deflaciis WaobSi Caf-lul iaponia ki, romelicmiwisZvriTa da cunamis Sed-egad gamowveuli ekonomi-kuri Sokis daZlevas cdi-lobs, iolad Camoitovebs

evropas da mis ekonomikas1.8%-iT gazrdis.

saerTaSoriso savalutofondi SiSobs, rom evropissaxelmwifo davalianebiskrizisi mTlianad msoflioekonomikas recesiis qarcecx-lSi dabrunebas upirebs.

cxadia, rom 2012 welsmsoflio ekonomikuri mi-wisZvris saSiSroebis epicen-tri evropa iqneba, rac glo-

msoflio ekonomikawels, saerTaSoriso savalu-to fondma CineTis ekonomi-kas prognozi Seumcira da 9%-is nacvlad 8.2%-iani zrdauwinaswarmetyvela, Tumca iqvedasZens, rom qveynis ekonomi-ka 2013 wels 8.8%-iT gaizrdeba.

roiteris ga-mokiTxva, romelicexeba yvela 20 gan-viTarebul da ax-ali bazrebis mqo-ne ekonomikas, maTSoris, azias, cxadyofs glo-baluri ekonomikis Senele-bas 3.3%-ze 2012 wlisaTvisda CamorCeba 2011 wlis 3.7%-ian zrdas.

roiteris prognozi mso-flio bankis prognozTan Se-darebiT optimisturia, rad-gan am ukanasknelis Tanaxm-ad, 2012 wels msoflio eko-nomika mxolod 2.5%-iT gai-zrdeba. miuxedavad evro zo-nis uzarmazari saxelmwifovalebisa, rac seriozulrisks qmnis msoflio eko-nomikuri janmrTelobisaT-vis, imedismomcemi niSnebiCndeba aSS-is ekonomikaSi.

roiteris gamokiTxvisTanaxmad, msoflio ekono-mikis zrdis cxrilSi Cine-Ti kvlav liderobs da msof-lio ekonomikas 8.4%-ian zr-das hpirdeba. yuradRebismiRma ar unda darCes indo-eTis ekonomika, romelisprognozebis Tanaxmad, 2012wels msoflios 7.0%-ianzrdas moutans, miuxedavad imfaqtisa, rom qveynis ekono-mikis zrda bolo ori wlisganmavlobaSi monetarulipolitikis gamkacrebisa dapolitikurad Cixuri mdgo-mareobis fonze yvelazedabal maCveneblebs aqveynebs.braziliis maRali Sida mo-Txovna da kreditebis zrdaqveynis ekonomikas 3.3%-iT ga-zrdis mimdinare wels da4.5%-iT 2013 wels.

rTuli droeba

mimdire wels yvelazemetad mdidar, ganviTarebulekonomikebs gauWirdebaT,msoflios umsxvilesi aSS-is ekonomika 2012 wels mx-

olod 2.2%-iT gaizrdeba.2012 wels evropis mTa-

vari amocanaa, rogorme Sein-arCunos eleganturoba, sa-berZneTidan agorebuli sax-elmwifo valebis defoltimTlianad evropis finansursistemas miayenebs zarals.aTenelebi sargebels naxu-loben fasiani qaRaldebissvopis garigebidan mis ker-Zo kreditorebTan erTad.

evro zonispolitikosebismoCvenebiTi uu-naroba, rom maTar SeuZliaTsaxelmwifo da-valianebis kri-zisTan gamkla-veba, sagangaSorisks uqmnis ek-onomikur zrd-as, rac namdvi-lad ar exebaregionis peri-feriul ekono-mikebs.

erTaderTimTavari evrop-uli ekonomika,romelic 2012wlis apokali-fsur stagna-cias Tavs daa-Rwevs, germaniaiqneba, Tumca mi-si ekonomika mi-mdinare welsmxolod 0.5%-iT gaizrdeba.

cxadia, rom analitikosebs, nebiT Tu uneblied, surT CineTis

ekonomikis daCrdilva sxva ganviTarebadi ekonomikebis zrdis fonze,

magram faqtebisa da cifrebis mixedviT, CineTi msoflios meore umsx-

vilesi ekonomikaa, 2012 wels ki is seriozul Tavsatexs gauCens msof-

lios, romelic evro zonis ekonomikur problemebzea gadarTuli

` `


balur ekonomikas metismetaddaazaralebs. analitikose-bi SiSoben, rom evropis kri-ziss SeuZlia imdenad moik-ribos Zalebi, rom msofliomeore recesiis klanWebSi mo-aqcios, amitom gadamwyveti dasaswrafo nabijebis gadadgma2012 wels aucilebeli dasaWiro iqneba.

ukanasknel msoflio eko-nomikis mimoxilvis moxsene-baSi Cawerilia, rom 2012wlis yvelaze didi gamowve-va evro zonis krizisis da-Zleva, ndobis aRdgena, ber-ketebis amuSaveba, masTan er-Tad likvidurobisa da ful-ad-dakreditebis donis zrda.axla, evropisTvis aucilebe-lia gadarCenis fondebi gaa-Zlieros, rom am gziT aRadg-inos bazris ndoba da saxel-mwifo qaRaldebis fasi undadaswios, raTa italiisa daespaneTis msgavsma qveynebmaxelmisawvdomi ganakveTiT ai-Ron sesxebi.

simwvaves ar kargavs sa-berZneTis krizisi, misi de-

folti qveyanas, da ara martomas, kvlav miaTrevs krizisisufskrulisaken, analitikose-bi 1930-iani wlebis depresi-is msgavs saSiSroebaze saub-roben, amitom aucileblad mi-iCneven evros garadCenis fon-dis 500 miliardamde gazr-das da am fondis moqnilo-bis donis amaRleba.

2012 wlis davosis foru-mzec dafiqsirda azri, rom mi-mdinare weli, marTalia, azi-isTvis mZime iqneba, magram msof-lio ekonomikisTvis azia maincekonomikur katalizatorad mo-gvevlineba, CineTis winamZRo-lobiT iondoeTi da indoneziamsoflio ekonomikis zrdaSimniSvnelovan rols iTamaSe-ben. evropis finansurma kriz-isma azias seriozuli zianimoutana: evropulma bankebma dasafinanso institutebma azi-is kreditebi ukan gamoitanesda vaWrobis moculobis kle-ba, rac udidesi dartymaa Cine-TisaTvis, romlisTvisac evro-pa eqsportis umsxvilesi baz-aria.

eqspertebi msoflio bazarze navTobis gaZvirebas prognozireben.Teirani mzadaa, mkacri pasuxi gasces evrokavSiris gadawyvetilebas,

1 ivlisidan iranuli navTobis importis akrZalvis Sesaxeb. kvirisbolomde iranis parlamenti apirebs daamtkicos kanonproeqti evrokav-Siris qveynebSi navTobis miwodebis sruli akrZalvis Sesaxeb man-amde, vidre evropeli momxmareblebi mis SeZenas Sewyveten.

eqspertebi acxadeben, rom Tuki iranuli mejlisis muqara Ses-ruldeba, es seriozul dartymas miayenebs evropuli qveynebisekonomikas, romlebic iZulebulni gaxdebian saswrafod daiwyoniranuli navTobis Sesyidvebi alternatiuli wyaroebidan ufromaRal fasad.

1 ivlisidan iranuli navTobis importze embargos etapobriviamoqmedebis gadawyvetileba briuselSi, evrokavSiris sagareo saqmeTaministrebis Sexvedraze iqna miRebuli. amas ar SeuSinebia Teiranida ufro metic, iranuli mejlisis energetikuli komitetis gancx-adebiT, ukve sruldeba muSaoba kanonproeqtze evropaSi navTobiseqsportis Sewyvetis Sesaxeb. analitikosebis SefasebiT, konfron-tacia izrdeba da aSkaraa, rom arc erTi da arc meore mxare arapirebs poziciebis daTmobas. Sedegad, evropis qveynebsSoris yvelaze metad saberZneTi, espaneTi da italiadazaraldebian.

krizisSi Caflul evropas iraninavTobis deficitiT emuqreba

65

msoflio ekonomika

statistika cifrebSiSS-is Sromis saminis-tros monacemebiT, 2011

wlis dekemberSi wina Tves-Tan SedarebiT samomxmareb-lo fasebi ar Secvlila. ana-litikosebi prognozirebdnen,rom es maCvenebeli 0,1%-iTgaizrdeboda. gasuli wlisanalogiur periodTan Sedar-ebiT samomxmareblo fasebi3,0%-iT gaizarda. kvebis pro-duqtebisa da energomatare-blebis fasebis gamoklebiT,samomxmareblo fasebi 2011wlis dekemberSi Tviur ga-moxatulebaSi 0,1%-iT gaizar-da, xolo wliuri gaangariSe-biT _ 2,2%-iT. 2011 wlis no-emberSi wina TvesTan Sedar-ebiT es maCvenebeli 0,2%-iTgaizarda.

aSS-is Sromis saminis-tros monacemebiT, qveyanaSisamrewvelo fasebi 2011 wlisdekemberSi wina TvesTan Se-darebiT Semcirda 0,1%-iT.2011 wlis noemberSi aSS-Simwarmoeblebis indeqsi Tvi-ur gamoxatulebaSi gaizar-da 0,3%-iT, wliur gamoxat-ulebaSi ki _ 4,8%-iT. kveb-is produqtebisa da energo-matareblebis fasebis gamok-lebiT, qveyanaSi mwarmoebel-Ta indeqsma wliur gaan-gariSebaSi moimata 3,0%-iT,es maCvenebeli igive procen-tuli punqtiT gaizardaTviur gamoxatulebaSic.

aSS-is federaluri sa-rezervo sistemis monaceme-biT, qveyanaSi samrewvelowarmoebis moculobam 2011wlis dekemberSi wina Tve-sTan SedarebiT moimata 0,4%-iT . analitikosebi ammaCveneblis zrdas 0,5%-isdoneze elodnen. wliurgamoxatulebaSi ki samrewve-lo warmoebis moculobagaizarda 2,9%-iT. aSS-Si sam-

rewvelo simZlavreebis ga-moyenebis koeficientma 2011wlis dekemberSi wina Tve-sTan SedarebiT 0,3 procen-tuli punqtiT moimata daSeadgina 78,1%. erTi wliTadre es maCvenebeli Sead-genda 76,8%-s. 2011 wlis noem-berSi aSS-Si samrewvelo wa-rmoebis moculoba, gadasin-juli monacemebiT, TviurgamoxatulebaSi Semcirda0,3%-iT (adre iuwyebodnen,rom maCvenebeli Semcirda0,2%-iT).

aSS-is finansTa saminis-tros monacemebiT, 2011 wlisnoemberSi qveyanaSi kapital-is wminda modinebam Seadgi-na 48,6 miliardi dolari.erTi TviT adre kapitaliswminda modinebam Seadgina39,6 miliardi dolari. 2011wlis noemberSi ucxoeleb-is mier amerikuli grZelva-diani fasiani qaRaldebis Se-syidvebis moculobam Sead-gina 44,4 miliardi dolari

(2011 wlis oqtomberSi dafiq-sirda gayidvebis moculoba5,2 miliardi dolaris ode-nobiT). amerikuli mokleva-diani fasiani qaRaldebisada sxva fuladi valdebule-bebis Sesyidvam ucxoelebismier Seadgina 38,0 miliardidolari (erTi TviT adredafiqsirda gayidva 41,0 mil-iardi dolaris doneze),xolo kapitalis gadinebam,amerikuli da ucxouri banke-bis kuTvnili fulad valde-bulebebs Soris gansxvave-biT warmoSobilma, 2011 wlisnoembris SedegebiT Seadgi-na 33,8 miliardi dolari.

aSS-is vaWrobis saminis-tros monacemebiT, qveyanaSiaxali saxlebis mSeneblo-bis moculoba 2011 wlis de-kemberSi wina TvesTan Se-darebiT Semcirda 4,1%-iT daSeadgina 657 aTasi erTeu-li. eqspertebi varaudobd-nen, rom es maCvenebeli iqne-boda 685 aTasi saxli. wli-

a


ur gamoxatulebaSi es maCvenebeli gazrdilia 24,9%-iT.gadasinjuli monacemebiT, 2011 wlis noemberSi aSS-Si axa-li mSeneblobebis moculoba gaizarda 9,1%-iT (adre 9,3%-ian zrdas prognozirebdnen) da Seadgina 685 aTasi erTeu-li.

axali saxlebis mSeneblobisTvis gacemuli nebarTvebisraodenoba 2011 wlis dekemberSi wina Tvis gadasinjul mo-nacemebTan SedarebiT Semcirda 0,1%-iT 681 aTas erTeulamde.es maCvenebeli erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi 7,8%-iT gaizarda.

aSS-is Sromis saministros monacemebiT, qveyanaSiumuSevrobis SemweobisTvis pirveladi saxelmwifo mima-rTvebis raodenoba kviris ganmavlobaSi, romelic dasrul-da 2012 wlis 14 ianvars, Semcirda 352 aTas adamianamde.analitikosebi elodnen, rom es maCvenebeli 383 aTas moTx-ovnas Seadgenda. dazustebuli monacemebiT, pirveladi mi-marTvebis raodenobam kviris ganmavlobaSi, romelic das-rulda 7 ianvars, Seadgina 402 aTasi da ara 399 aTasi,rogorc adre varaudobdnen.

germaniis ekonomikis sa-ministrom 2012 wlis mSp-isprognozi isev SemcirebiskenSecvala. gamoqveynebulimonacemebis Tanaxmad, axaliwlis monacemebis mixedviT,ekonomikis zrdam unda Seadg-inos 0,7%. germaniis mTavro-bis axali Sefaseba mcired-iT Camouvardeba adrindels:ekonomikis saministro 2012wlis SedegebiT ekonomikiszrdas 1%-iT varaudobda.eqspertebis azriT, mimdinarewels eqsporti ver uzrun-

germaniis 2012 wlis mSp-isprognozi Semcirebisken Seicvala

velyofs qveynis mSp-is zr-das. germaniis ekonomikurizrdis Sesustebis mizezimisi savaWro partniorebiarian. specialistebi miiCn-even, rom saerTaSoriso vaWro-bis wili mSp-is cvlileba-Si uaryofiTi iqneba (-0,3%),maSin, rodesac erTi wliswin am dargs SeeZlo maCveneb-lis 0,8%-iT zrda. gardaamisa, germaniis ekonomikissaministro elis, rom impor-tisa da eqsportis tempiszrda 2012 wlis SedegebiT

mkveTrad Sem-cirdeba 2011welTan Sedar-ebiT: 3% da 2%,7,2% da 8,2%-issapirispirodSesabamisad .amavdroulad,saministrosspecialistebiprognozireben,rom 2012 welsgermaniis mSp-is zrda isevdaCqardeba daSeadgens 1,6%-s.

germaniisfederaluri

statistikuri samsaxurisinformaciiT, gasuli wlisdekemberSi wina TvesTan Se-darebiT germaniis samrewve-lo fasebi 0,4%-iT Semcir-da. analitikosebi maCveneb-lis zrdas 0,1%-is fargleb-Si elodnen. gasuli wlisdekemberSi wina wlis igiveperiodTan SedarebiT esmaCvenebeli momatebulia 4%-iT. 2011 wlis noemberSi sam-rewvelo fasebi Tviur ga-moxatulebaSi gaizarda 0,1%-iT, xolo wliuriT _ 5,2%-iT.

germaniis ekonomikurikvlevis centris monaceme-biT (ZEW), qveyanaSi saqmianimolodinis indeqsma mim-dinare wlis ianvarSi Sead-gina minus 21,6 punqti winaTvis minus 53,8 punqtTanSedarebiT. analitikosebivaraudobdnen, rom es indika-tori minus 49,2 punqti iqne-boda. germaniis mimdinareekonomikuri pirobebis ind-eqsi 2012 wlis ianvarSi 28,4punqtamde gaizarda erTiTvis winandeli 26,8 pun-qtidan, roca prognozi 24,0punqti iyo.

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did britaneTSi inflaciis Senelebayvelaze mniSvnelovani movlena gaxda

didi britaneTis statis-tikuri samsaxuris monaceme-biT, gasuli wlis dekember-Si 2010 wlis dekemberTan Se-darebiT qveynis samomxmareb-lo fasebi 4,2%-iT gaizarda.aRsaniSnavia, rom 2011 wlisdekemberSi wina TvesTan Se-darebiT inflaciis Senele-ba yvelaze mniSvnelovanimovlena gaxda 2,5 wlis gan-mavlobaSi, anu 2009 wlis apri-

lis Semdeg. TviurgamoxatulebaSi ga-suli wlis dekember-Si samomxmareblo fa-sebi gaizarda 0,4%-iT. noemberSi ki winaTvesTan SedarebiT ammaCvenebelma moimata0,2%-iT. samomxmareb-lo fasebis sabazisoindeqsi (energomata-reblebis, kvebis pro-duqtebis, alkohol-isa da Tambaqos fase-bis gamoklebiT)wliuri gaangariSe-biT dekemberSi gai-zarda 3%-iT, xoloTviuri gaTvlebiT0,5%-iT.

umuSevrobis maC-venebeli gasuliwlis dekemberSi winaTvis gadasinjul mo-nacemebTan SedarebiT

ar Secvlila da Seadgina5,0%. saxelmwifosTvisumuSevrobis Semweobis mis-aRebad mimarTvebis raodeno-ba 2011 wlis dekemberSi winaTvesTan SedarebiT gaizar-da 1,2 aTasiT da miaRwia 1milion 597 aTasamde _ Se-darebiT maRali maCvenebeliTiTqmis 2 wlis manZilze.analitikosebi elodnen, romzrda 10 aTasi iqneboda. ga-

dasinjuli monacemebisTanaxmad, 2011 wlis noember-Si es maCvenebeli winaTvesTan SedarebiT gaizar-da 200 da ara 3 aTasiT,rogorc adre varaudobdnen.didi britaneTis umuSevro-ba, gamoTvlili Sromis saer-TaSoriso organizaciis mier(ILO), sami Tvis manZilze (2011wlis seqtemberidan noem-bramde) gaizarda 0,3 procen-tuli punqtiT imave wlisivnis-agvistosTan SedarebiTda Seadgina 8,4%. es arisyvelaze maRali maCvenebeli1995 wlis noembris Semdeg.

did britaneTSi sacalogayidvebis moculoba 2011wlis dekemberSi wina TvesTanSedarebiT gaizarda 0,6%-iT.analitikosebi elodnen, romes maCvenebeli Tviur gamoxat-ulebaSi gaizrdeboda 0,7%-iT.2011 wlis dekemberSi winawlis analogiur periodTanSedarebiT es maCvenebeligaizarda 2,6%-iT. 2011 wlisnoemberSi ki, sacalo gayidve-bis moculoba, dazustebulimonacemebiT, Tviur gamoxat-ulebaSi Semcirda 0,5%-iT(adre 0,4%-iani Semcirebasvaraudobdnen), xolo wliurgamoxatulebaSi _ 0,4%-iT(adre 0,7%-ian zrdas varau-dobdnen).

Eurostat-is saboloo monacemebiT, evro-zonis samomxmareblo fasebi, gasuli wlisdekemberSi wliur gamoxatulebaSi gaizarda2,7%-iT, analitikosebi ki inflacias 2,8%-isdoneze elodnen. wina TvesTan SedarebiT2011 wlis dekemberSi samomxmareblo fasebigaizarda 0,3%-iT. wliur gamoxatulebaSi 2011wlis noemberSi evrozonis samomxmareblo

dekemberSi yvelaze dabali inflaciaSvedeTSi dafiqsirda

fasebis indeqsi 3,0%-iT gaizarda. gasuliwlis dekemberSi samomxmareblo fasebievrokavSiris 27 qveyanaSi wliuri gamoxat-ulebiT gaizarda 3.0%-iT, xolo Tviur gamo-saxulebiT 0,3%-iT. 2011 wlis dekemberSi yve-laze dabali inflacia dafiqsirda SvedeT-Si (0,4%), maltaSi (1,3%), yvelaze maRali ki _slovakeTSi (4,6%) da kviprosze (4,2%).

msoflio ekonomika


aSS-is ekonomikis mTavari draiveri_ kerZo moxmareba isev moqmedebaSia

aSS-is ekonomika aRdgensganagrZobs, igi gamodis imSeokidan, romelic 2011 welsmiiRo navTobis fasebisswrafi awevisa da iaponiismiwisZvrisagan. axal, 2012wels msoflioSi nomer pirve-li ekonomika bevrad damajere-blad Sevida, vidre 2011 wlismiwuruls prognozirebdnen.2011 wlis IV kvartalSi mSp-is 3,0%-iani zrda dafiqsir-da, roca wina kvartalSi esmaCvenebeli 1,8%-s Seadgenda.eqspertebis azriT, aSS-isekonomikis aRdgenis tempisdaCqareba ganapiroba, pirvelrigSi, kerZo moxmarebis zr-dis aRdgenam da sasaqonlomaragebis brunvis gazrdam.kerZo moxmareba, rogorc cno-bilia, paralizebuli iyo 2011wlis dasawyisSi mkveTradgazrdili sanavTobe koti-rebebisa da iaponiis miwisZ-vris Semdeg avtomobilebisgayidvebis vardnis fonze.Tumca wlis meore naxevarSi

navTobproduqtebze fasebisSemcirebiT amerikelebis re-aluri Semosavlebi gaizar-da. garda amisa, iaponiis mi-wisZvris Semdeg dazaralebu-li aSS-is saavtomobilo in-

dustria, romelic qveynis erT-erTi wamyvani dargia, asevewlis meore naxevarSi aRdga.ase rom, aSS-is ekonomikis mTa-vari draiveri _ kerZo mox-mareba isev moqmedebaSia da,bevri eqspertis azriT, undaSeZlos zrdis stimulireba.yvelaze mokrZalebuli Se-fasebebiT, qveyanaSi zrdam 2012wlisTvis unda Seadginos2,5%. eqspertebs optimistur

talRaze ayenebs bolos gamo-qveynebuli aSS-is makroeko-nomikuri maCveneblebic. sam-rewvelo warmoebam gasuliwlis dekemberSi isev aCvenazrda noembris CavardnisSemdgom. federaluri sarez-ervo sistemis monacemebiT, sam-rewvelo warmoebis moculo-ba 2011 wlis dekemberSi noem-berTan SedarebiT gaizarda0,4%-iT, noemberSi vardnam 0,3%Seadgina. monacemebma aCvena,rom aSS-Si gaizarda moTxov-na sawarmoo teqnikaze, avto-mobilebze da samSeneblomasalebze. garda amisa, war-moeba damamuSavebeli dargSi,romelzedac aSS-is ekono-mikis 12% modis, gaizarda 0,9%-iT, noembris 0,4%-iani kleb-is Semdeg. saavtomobilomrewvelobaSi warmoebis moc-uloba 0,6%-iT da 0,8%-iT _sawarmoo teqnikis moculo-ba. Tumca, amave dros, TviTm-frinavebisa da sxva satrans-porto saSualebebis mowyo-bilobebis warmoeba Semcir-da. dekemberSi 1%-iT gaizar-

da samSeneblo masalebis war-moeba. es aris aqtiurobiszrdis yvelaze maRali maC-venebeli bolo 5 Tvis man-Zilze. mompovebelma dargma,maT Soris, navTobmopovebam,2011 wlis dekemberSi awar-moa 0,3%-iT meti produqcia,vidre wina TveSi. aq aqtivo-ba ramdenadme Semcirda, rad-gan noemberSi warmoebis Tvi-urma zrdam mompovebel darg-

aSS-is mSp-is zrdis tempi

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Si Seadgina 0,5%. aSS-Si mkve-Trad Semcirda eleqtroen-ergiis warmoeba, ramac eleq-troenergetikaSi warmoebis2,7%-iani Semcireba gamoiwvia.es yvelaze dabali maCvenebe-lia 2011 wlis oqtombris Sem-deg.

gaZlierebuli samomxma-reblo moTxovna da korpo-ratiuli investirebis moc-ulobis zrda materialur-teqnikuri maragebis Sevseb-is aucileblobasTan erTad,amerikel mrewvelebs aiZu-lebs, ara mxolod SeavsonTanamSromelTa Statebi fab-rika-qarxnebSi, aramed gazar-don samuSao kviris xangrZli-vobac. Tumca, miuxedavad amisa,evropuli qveynebis umeteso-baSi mZvinvare savale kriz-isi didi xnis manZilze Caax-Sobs amerikuli warmoebissaqonelze moTxovnas ̀ beberkontinentze~. aSS-is vaWrobissaministros monacemebiT,evropaSi eqsportma gasuliwlis noemberSi ukve miaRwiaminimalur niSnuls bolooTxi Tvis manZilze. Tumca,rogorc 2008 wels, situaciasasworeben ganviTarebadi qvey-nebis importiorebi, pirvelrigSi ki, CineTidan. ganviTare-bad qveynebSi amerikuliwarmoebis saqonelze moTx-ovna kvlavindeburad maRalia.swored amitomac amerikelimanqanaTmSeneblebi simZlav-res zrdian. maT SorisMaumee _ avtomobilebis sa-Rebavebis mwarmoebeli gasu-

iaponiis mTavrobis ekonomikuri da so-cialuri kvleviTi institutis monaceme-biT, qveynis samrewvelo warmoebis moculo-ba 2011 wlis noemberSi wina TvesTan Sedar-ebiT, dazustebuli informaciiT, Semcirda2,7%-iT. iaponiis samomxmareblo ndobisindeqsi 2011 wlis dekemberSi wina TvesTanSedarebiT da Seadgina 38,9 punqti. noember-Si es maCvenebeli Seadgenda 38,1 punqts.

iaponiaSi samomxmareblo ndoba gaizarda

msoflio ekonomika

li wlis SedegebiT damateb-iT mogebas elodeba 1,952,05dolariT aqciaze. xololuqs klasis avtomobilebismwarmoebeli msoflio lide-ri Bayerische Motoren Werke AGsawarmoo simZlavreebis ga-sazrdelad da axali model-is warmoebis mosamzadebladapirebs 900 milioni dolar-is investirebas samxreT karo-linas Statis qarxanaSi.

imaze, rom aSS-is realurekonomikaSi aqtivoba izrdeba,metyvelebs aSS-is Sromis de-partamentis monacemebic. 2011wlis dekemberSi mrewvelebma23 aTasi axali samuSao adgi-

li Seqmnes. es yvelaze maRa-li maCvenebelia bolo 5 TvisganmavlobaSi. 2010 wlis mai-sis Semdeg, gasuli wlis de-kemberSi samuSao kviris xan-grZlivobam pirvelad miaRwia41,5 saaTs. mrewvelobis dama-muSavebel dargebSi aqtivobiszrdas oficialuri vaSington-ic adasturebs. Beige Book-isbolo gamoSvebaSi, romelic2012 wlis 11 ianvars gamoqvey-nda, naTqvamia, rom damamuSave-bel mrewvelobaSi aqtiurobaizrdeba, Tumca calkeul seqto-rebSi, magaliTad, rogoricaateqnologiuri zrdis tempi _neldeba.

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evropaSi inflacia mcirdeba

`beber kontinentze~ fa-sebis zrda neldeba _ aseTiaevrozonisa da didi brit-aneTis statistikis gasuliwlis dekembris maCveneblebi.luqsembrugSi statistikuribiuros mier gavrcelebulimonacemebiT, 2011 wlis de-kemberSi evrozonis wliuriinflacia noemberTan Sedar-ebiT Semcirda 3,0%-dan 2,7%-mde. Tumca, Tveebis mixedviTfasebis zrdis tempi daCqare-bulia 0,1% noemberSi da 0,3%dekemberSi. garda amisa, samomx-mareblo fasebis sakvanZoindeqsi (Core CPI), romelicgamoTvleba energomatare-blebisa da kvebis produqte-bis fasebis gareSe, jer araCvenebs zrdis Senelebis niS-nebs. maCvenebeli meoTxe Tveazedized wliur gamoxatule-baSi izrdeba 1,6%-iT.

evrokavSiris 21qveyanaSi samomxmareb-lo fasebis zrdaSenelda, maSin, roca2 qveyanaSi daCqarda.slovakeTSi, poloneT-sa da kviprosze ismaqsimalur maCvene-belzea, xolo mal-tasa da SvedeTSifasebis zrda mini-maluria. mTlianoba-Si evrozonaSi eleq-troenergiaze fasebma9,7%-iT moimata wli-ur gamoxatulebaSi,uZrav qonebaze 4,9%-iT, xolo Tambaqosnawarmisa da alko-holis fasma weliwad-Si 3,8%-iT moimates.

evropis centra-lurma bankma ukve or-jer daswia sabazisosaprocento ganakveTi0,25%-iT da daiyvana1,0%-mde. centralurbanks ukve SeuZliacota xani ar gadaxe-dos Tavis fulad-

sakredito politikas dadaelodos, Tu ra Sedegebsmoitans ukve gadagmulinabijebi. inflaciam Senele-

ba daiwyo da gamoCnda imispirveli niSnebi, rom post-krizisuli inflacia ukvewarsuls Cabarda. gaxdeba Tuara inflaciuri zewolis Se-susteba tendencia Tu es mx-olod droebiTi Semcirebaa,amas Semdgomi statistikagvaCvenebs. evropis monetaru-li xelisufleba cxadad av-lens, rom dRes maTi prior-itetuli amocana ekonomikismxardaWeraa. 12 ianvars gama-rTuli evropis centraluribankis monetaruli poli-tikis komitetis sxdomisSemdeg, bankis prezidenti, mar-io dragi, Tavis komentareb-Si acxadebda, rom inflaci-uri riskebi ZiriTadad da-balansebulia. imdenad, ram-denadac ekonomikuri zrdisperspeqtivebi sakmaod gaur-kvevelia, evropis centra-luri bankis meTauri moelis,rom inflacia ramdenime Tvesamizne 2%-ian bariers gada-aWarbebs.

maSin, rodesac evropuliekonomika recesiis zRvarzea,xolo saxelmwifo xarjebiradikalurad mcirdeba, evro-peli mrewvelebi cdilobenSeinarCunon konkurentunar-

mario dragi:

inflaciuririskebi ZiriTadaddabalansebulia

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ianoba da iZulebulni ari-an TavianT produqciaze fase-bi daswion. jer kidev gasu-li wlis seqtemberSi mwar-moebelTa fasebma Senelebadaiwyes 5,8% oqtomberSi, ro-melic jer 5,5%-ze Camovida,xolo noemberSi 5,3%-ze.garda amisa, evropel mwar-moeblebze did zewolasaxdens navToproduqtebze ma-Rali fasebi. mxolod gasu-li sami Tvis ganmavlobaSisanavTobe kotirebeba 15%-iTmoimates. am yvelaferTan er-Tad dolaris mimarT dasus-tebuli evro evropaSi impo-rtirebuli saqonlis Rire-bulebas ufro maRals xdis,ramac unda ganapirobos evro-pul saqonelze maRali moTx-ovna.

londonidan miRebuliukansakneli statistika mow-mobs, rom inflaciuri ze-wola did britaneTSicmcirdeba. londonis erovnu-lis statistikuri biurosmonacemebiT, samomxmareblofasebi gasuli wlis de-kemberSi noemberTan Sedar-ebiT Semcirebulia, sxvaTaSoris, sakmaod sagrZnobadwliuri 4,8%-dan 4,2%-mde.amasTan, Tviur gamoxatule-baSi CPI indeqsi dekemberSiaiwia 0,4%-iT noembris 0,2%-dan. garda amisa, samomxmare-blo fasebis indeqsi, gaw-mendili energomatarebleb-is, kvebis produqtebis, alko-holosa da Tambaqos fasebi-sgan (Core CPI), gasuli wlisdekemberSi wliur gamoxat-ulebaSi aiwia 3,0%-iT noem-bris 3,2%-iani zrdis Sem-deg. londonis statis-tikuri biuro sacalo fase-bis zrdis SenelebazecakeTebs gancxadebas. wliurgamoxatulebaSi 5,2%-dannoemberSi 4,8%-mde. TviurgamoxatulebaSi inflaciadaCqarda 0,2%-dan noemberSi0,4%-mde. ase rom, nislian al-

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bionze inflaciam daiwyo Semcireba winasaaxalwlo gayid-vebisa da benzinze fasebis Semcirebis fonze. bolo naxe-vari wlis manZilze inflacia minimaluri gaxda. ingli-sis bankis SefasebiT, mimdinare wels inflacia sakmaodmniSvnelovnad Senelda, rac didi britaneTis mosaxleobasdid samsaxurs gauwevs, romlebic sakuTar Tavze ganicdianara marto biujetis deficitis radikaluri SemcirebistvirTs, aramed savale krizisis virusis negatiur efeqts,romelmac mezobel qveynebSi ifeTqa. naTelia, rom didibritaneTis monetaruli xelisuflebisTvisac sakuTariekonomikis mxardaWeris amocana nomer pirveli mniSvnelobissaqmea.


1. mTliani statia avtorma unda warmoadgi-nos rogorc qarTulad, ise inglisurad. sxva SemTx-vevaSi saerTaSoriso doneze referirebulad arCaiTvleba;

2. yvela statiis recenzirebisTvis gansazR-vrulia erTkviriani vada;

3. statiaSi unda iyos miTiTebuli, Tu umuSa-via vinmes am Temaze da masze Tu arsebobs serio-zuli gamokvlevebi;

4. avtorma samecniero statias unda daurTosoTxmocsityviani lidi;

5. avtorTan SeTanxmebiT statias SeiZlebaSeecvalos saTauri;

6. statiaSi ar unda iyos gamoyenebuli statis-tikidan amoRebuli cxrili, romelsac ar eqnebadarTuli avtoris analizi;

7. statias unda erTvodes mxolod sqolioeb-Si miTiTebuli literatura;

8. statiis qarTuli teqsti akrefili undaiyos AcadNusx-iT, inglisuri – Times New Roman – iT,daculi unda iyos 12-iani Srifti da xazebs Soris1,5-iani daSoreba;

9. statia warmodgenili unda iyos A4 forma-tiT, 6 _ 8 gverdiani moculobiT. saTauri undaSeadgebodes araumetes 8 sityvisagan;

10. statiis saTauris Semdeg miTiTebuli undaiyos avtoris (an avtorebis) sruli saxeli, gvari

JurnalSi `saqarTvelosekonomika~ samecniero

statiebis gamoqveynebis wesi(wodeba Tu gaCnia); avtoris telefoni da eleqtronu-li misamarTi;

11. Tu statia moicavs meTodologias, unda gam-oiyos calke qvesaTauriT. saTaurebi unda iyosmokle, gansazRvruli da daunomravi. cxrilebi,diagramebi – minimumamde dayvanili, maqsimum – 4,Sav-TeTri, arabuli cifrebis gamoyenebiT. teqst-Si aucileblad miuTiTeT: ̀ ix. cxrili #...~;samec-niero statiaSi cxrilebis, naxazebis da sqemebisraodenoba ar unda aRematebodes 4-s.

12. statiebi warmodgenli unda iyos eleqtronu-li da qaRaldze amobeWdili formiT (2 egzem-plarad);

13. statia avtors ar ubrundeba;14. saredaqcio kolegia uzrunvelyofs stati-

is farul recenzirebas. ibeWdeba dadebiTi recen-ziis mimRebi statia;

15. uaryofiTi recenziis SemTxvevaSi, sadao sa-kiTxi saredaqcio kolegiis sxdomaze ganixileba;

16. moTxovnebis darRveviT warmodgenili masa-la JurnalSi ar daibeWdeba;

17. Jurnalis ,,saqarTvelos ekonomika~ redaq-cia pasuxs ar agebs samecniero statiebSi warmod-genili monacemebis sisworeze;

18. Jurnali ,,saqarTvelos ekonomika~ SesabamisklasifikatorSi dafiqsirebuli referirebad-re-cenzirebadi Jurnalia.

stat

iebi

rec

enzir

deb

a!

73

mecnieruli xedva

0-iani wlebis dasaw-yisidan turistuli

transnacionaluri kompani-is zemoqmedebis ekonomikuriproblema mecnierebis yura-dRebis centrSia. dasavleT-Si gamoqveynebul iqna mrava-li Sroma, romelic mas yo-velmxriv aRwerda. ukeTaa Se-swavlili turistuli tran-snacionaluri kompaniis ze-moqmedeba mimRebi qveynis eko-nomikaze. specialistebi ga-moyofen xuT ZiriTad sak-iTxs:

• turistuli transna-cionaluri kompaniis kon-troli turistuli bazris

transnacionalurikompaniebis zegavlenaerovnul ekonomikaze

goris saswavlo universitetis sruliprofesori, xaTuna kakauriZe.

studentebi: nino tramakiZe;

TaTia gugutiSvili, bakalavri ssi p gsu

struqturaze, turizmisa damisi calkeuli seqtorebisganviTarebaze mimReb qveya-naSi;

• kontroli turistulnakadebze;

• turistul produq-ciaze faswarmoqmna;

• saerTaSoriso tur-izmidan sazRvargareT Semo-savlebis gadinebis proble-ma;

• turistuli transna-cionaluri kompaniis te-qnologiuri zegavlena qvey-ana – importiorebis ekonomi-kaze.

turistuli transnacio-

naluri kompaniis misazidadiniciativa Zalian xSiradmodis mimRebi qveynidan, sa-dac adgilobrivi kompanie-bi an saerTod ar arian, anmaT ar gaaCniaT sakmarisiresursebi. filipinebis, in-doneziis, pakistanis, Sri-lankas mTavrobebi ucxoelinvestorebs ara marto sa-gadasaxado SeRavaTebs aZlev-en, aramed zogjer aTavisu-fleben begarisgan danad-garebis, meqanizmebisa damasalebis importze. turis-tul seqtorSi, gansakuTre-biT ki sustad ganviTarebulqveynebSi, turistuli tran-snacionaluri kompaniisgamoCena iwvevs garedan kon-trols adgilobrivi tur-istuli bazris struqtur-isa da turizmis industri-is gamoCenaze. ucxoeTis avi-akompanias, romelic emsaxure-ba patara qveynis sahaeromimosvlis saerTaSorisoxazebs, SeuZlia, winaaRmdego-ba gauwios am bazarze sxvaaviagadazidvebis gamosvlas,rogorc sazRvargareTuls,ise erovnulsac da daadgi-nos axali monopolia, ro-melic yovelTvis ar pasux-obs mimRebi qveynis intere-sebs. zogierTma saxelmwi-fom, romelmac gaaforma kon-traqtebi turistul korpo-raciebTan: ,,xmelTaSua zRvisklubi~ (safrangeTi) an ame-rikul sastumros jgufebTan_ ara mxolod SezRudeskonkurencia, aramed dakarg-

8


es ekonomikuri ganviTareb-is SerCevis Tavisufleba.daamkvidra ra Tavisi monop-oliuri mdgomareoba mimRe-bi qveynis ekonomikaSi, tur-istul transnacionalurkompanias Sewevs unari, ze-wola moaxdinos mTavroba-ze imisaTvis, rom man gazar-dos xarjebi infrastruq-turaze. arc Tu iSviaTiaSemTxvevebi, rodesac tran-snacionaluri kompaniebisaWiroeben axali aeropor-tis mSeneblobas, miwiszedatransportis Camoyalibebu-li sistemis Secvlas an mi-waTsargeblobis struqtur-is gadasinjvas. turistulitransnacionaluri kompanie-bi iswrafvian, gansazRvronpolitika turizmis sfero-Si Tavisi sakuTari mizneb-is ganxorcielebisaTvis. eskargad Cans espaneTis magal-iTze, sadac sargebels in-frastruqturis ganviTareb-isgan iReben ucxoeli tur-istebi, xolo adgilobrivimosaxleoba ki iZulebulia,gaiRos xarjebi mis Sesaqm-nelad.

senegalSi ganviTarebisIV nacionaluri gegmis far-glebSi turistuli infras-truqturis mSeneblobazegamoyofili iyo 23 mlrd.seneg. franki e. i. saxelm-wifo biujetis 12%. Sesa-dareblad: danaxarjebma jan-dacvaze imave periodSi Sead-gina mxolod 3.4 mlrd, ga-naTlebaze _ 7.4 mlrd., sof-lis meurneobaze _ 24 mlrd.seneg. frankiani turistuliobieqtebis didi kapitalte-vadobis gamo ganviTarebadiqveynebi iZulebuli arian,aiRon sesxebi da kreditebituristuli transnaciona-luri kompaniis moTxovneb-is Sesabamisad infrastruq-turis Sesaqmnelad. zemoT-CamoTvlili problemebismiuxedavad, zogierTi qveya-na Zveleburad xsnis turis-tul bazrebs turistuli

transnacionaluri kompani-isTvis, ukavSirebs ra maTukanasknel imeds CamorCeni-lobis dasaZlevad. amasTanerTad, mTavrobebi xdebianufro diplomatiurebi tran-snacionalur kompaniebTanmolaparakebebis Casatare-blad. saerTaSoriso turiz-mis ganviTarebasTan erTadizrdeba turistuli tran-snacionaluri kompaniisraodenobac, romlebic cdi-loben gazardon TavianTizegavlenis sfero da mimRe-bi mxare sul ufro met Za-lauflebas iZens maTTanSeTanxmebis gaformebisas.turistuli transnaciona-luri kompania kontrolisSedegad zegavlenas axdensqveyana-recipientis ekonomi-kaze, turistul nakadebze.turizmis sferoSi transna-cionaluri kompaniebissaqmianobam ganapiroba Zvre-bi turistuli moTxovnebisgeografiaSi, Secvala mimos-vlaTa nakadebis mimarTule-ba. aiZules ra xelisufle-bebi, gadaexedaT fiskaluripolitika da gaezardaT xar-jebi turistul infrastru-qturaze, maT gamoiwvies saer-TaSoriso turizmis aRmasv-la mraval raionSi.amasTan erTad, turistulitransnacionaluri kompani-is Zalisxmeva destinaciaSituristebis misazidad, arcTu iSviaTad ewinaaRmdegebaerovnuli turistuli admin-istraciebis interesebs. esukanasknelni miznobrivisaxiT xSirad irCeven eli-taruli turistebis viwrosabazro segments, imedi aqvTra, rom eqnebaT maRali Se-mosavali maTi momsaxurebisSedegad. magram transnacio-naluri kompaniisTvis,romelic xelmZRvanelobsmogebis maqsimizaciis prin-cipiT, SesaZlebelia, ufroxelsayreli iyos masobrivturizmTan muSaoba. mis mierorganizebuli da marTuli

farTo turistuli nakadebisaSiSroebas Seicavs adgilo-brivi kulturisa da buneb-is garemosTvis. adgenen rakontrols turistul nakade-bze, turistuli transnacio-naluri kompaniebi iyenebenam berkets mimReb qveyanazezemoqmedebisTvis dawesebu-li sagadasaxado da sxvasaxis SeRavaTebis gafarToe-bis mizniT. 70-iani wlebisbolos tunisis mTavrobismoqmedebis sapasuxod, romel-ic winaaRmdegobas uwevdaerT-erTi dasavleT german-uli turistuli korporaci-is isedac uzarmazari moge-bis zrdas, firmam mkveTradSeamcira germaneli turiste-bis Seyvana (60 aTasidan 12aTasamde) qveyanaSi, riTacmniSvnelovani ziani miaye-na tunisis ekonomikas. amg-varad, yalibdeba axalgazr-da saxelmwifoebis ucxourkapitalze damokidebuleba.Tanamedrove transnaciona-luri kompaniebi gamoirCe-vian qcevis globaluristrategiiT mogzaurobebismsoflio bazarze. isiniTavis gamoxatulebas hpove-ben transfertuli faswar-moqmnis meqanizmSi. axdenenra turistuli produqciiskomponentebis fasebiT ma-nipulirebas, erT SemTxveva-Si maTi gazrdiT, sxva SemTx-vevaSi, piriqiT, SemcirebiT,transnacionaluri kompanie-bi zrdian korporaciulmogebas. fasebis donis cvale-badoba ar aris transnacio-naluri kompaniis gamogone-ba. is Cveulebriv komerciu-li praqtikaa. kontragentebsSoris SeTanxmebis SemTxveva-Si xdeba sabazo fasis gazr-da an Semcireba. mravalisaqonlisa da momsaxurebismimarT moqmedebs Camofasebabrunvaze, romelic gamoiyene-ba sabiTumo Sesyidvebisdros. turizmSi aseve far-Tod gamoiyeneba sezonuriCamofasebebi produqciis

75

mecnieruli xedvaSeZenisas ara sezonis mixed-viT, ris Sedegadac Tanabar-zomieri xdeba moTxovna dawinadadeba. turoperatorebida turagentebi, rogorc Sua-mavlebi turistuli momsax-urebis mimwodeblisganiReben fasdaklebas gasaRe-baze, rac maT saSualebasaZlevT, gauZlon fasobrivkonkurencias bazarze. magal-iTad, germaneli da britane-li turoperatorebi cno-bilni arian espanuri daberZnuli otelebis momsax-urebiTa da iq garTobisZalian dabali fasebiT. fase-bis done yovel konkretulSemTxvevaSi yalibdeba sxva-dasxva garigebis monawi-leebs Soris SeTanxmebisSedegad. es principi mo-qmedebs transnacionalurikompaniis produqtebzefaswarmoqmnis drosac. tran-snacionaluri kompania mo-laparakebebis mxolodgarkveul formas da Sigasa-firmo xasiaTs aniWebs. erT-erTi yvelze mZafri prob-lema, rac dakavSirebulia

transnacionaluri kompani-is sazRvargareT saqmi-anobasTan, es aris saerTa-Soriso turizmidan miRebu-li Semosavlis gadineba mim-Rebi qveynidan. is iSlebaor Semadgenel nawilad:importirebuli saqonlis(momsaxurebis) anazRaurebada sawarmoo resursebismflobelTaTvis jildosgadaxda. Catarebuli kvlevebigviCveneben, rom transnacio-naluri kompaniis sazRvarg-areTul filialebs mi-drekileba aqvT, iseve moax-dinon saqonlis (momsaxure-bis) importireba, rogorcadgilobrivma kompaniebma.ufro metic, mravali tran-snacionaluri kompania cdi-lobs, ra rom Seiqmnas daSeinarCunos Tavisi dadebi-Ti imiji mimReb qveynebSi,winaswarganzraxulad iy-enebs adgilobriv resursebsiq, sadac ki es SesaZlebe-lia. magram amasTan erTad,transnacionaluri kompanie-bi, gansakuTrebiT ki tur-izmSi, mtkice kavSirs inar-

Cuneben Tavisi warmoSobisqveyanasTan. isini orienta-cias akeTeben ,,mSobliuri~mnaxvelebis miRebaze. magal-iTad, aSS-is msxvilma sas-tumros kompaniebma daiwyesgasvla erovnul sazRvrebsgareT, sawarmoTa jaWvis Se-qmna da amerikuli stumarT-moyvareobis standartebisgavrceleba gasvliTi tur-istuli nakadebis gafarToe-biT. dRes mTels msoflio-Si gafantuli otelebi, rom-lebic gaerTianebulia ,,ai-ti-ti Seratonisa~ Tu ,,hil-ton houtelz korporeiSnis~tipis sastumroebis jaWveb-Si, TavianTi Tanamemamulee-bis gemovnebis gaTval-iswinebiT ewevian ludisada sigaretebis imports aSS-dan. iaponuri transnacio-naluri kompaniebis fil-ialebs sarestorno meur-neobaSi iaponiidan SeaqvTkvebis produqtebi da aveji.meore xazi, rac aiZulebsfilialebs moaxdinon saqon-lisa da momsaxurebis impor-ti, dakavSirebulia standar-

19 ianvars energetikisa da bunebrivi resursebis min-istri aleqsandre xeTaguri ruseTis akademiuri wreebis,sxvadasxva tipis uflebadacviTi da media organizacie-bis warmomadgenlebs Sexvda da saqarTvelos energoseq-torSi ganxorcielebul reformebs gaacno.

ministrTan Sexvedra proeqtis ̀ qarTvel da rus ax-algazrda profesionalTa dialogis~ farglebSi moewyo,romelsac ̀ kulturul urTierTobaTa centri-kavkasiurisaxli~ cnobili rusi Jurnalistis oleg panfilovisxelmZRvanelobiT axorcielebs. proeqtis mizania, ormxriviurTierTobebis gaZlierebiT, xeli Seuwyos ndobismSeneblobasa da grZelvadian mSvidobas qarTul darusul sazogadoebebs Soris.

aRniSnuli proeqtis farglebSi saqarTveloSi stum-rad Camosuli ruseTis samoqalaqo sazogadoebis warmo-madgenlebi qarTvel kolegebTan erTad, SexvedrebssaqarTvelos saxelmwifo struqturebis, arasa-mTavrobo seqtoris warmomadgenlebsa da da-moukidebel eqspertebTan marTaven.

aleqsandre xeTagurma qarTul energetikulreformebi ruseTis akademiur wreebs gaacno


tizaciis globalur proces-ebTan da ,,mSobliuri~ qvey-nis saxis SeqmnasTan. mag.,aviakompania ,,er fransi~ winwevs Tavis frangul markas,xolo kompania ,,roial vi-king laini~ yvelaferSixazs usvams Tavis skandinavi-ur warmoSobas. saqonlisa damomsaxurebis importi saer-TaSoriso turistul baz-arze xarjebis sakmaod Sesa-mCnevi statiaa mravali gan-viTarebadi qveynis saxelm-wifo biujetebSi. es opera-ciebi Tumca ganapirobebenvalutis gadinebas sazRvarg-areT, magram arc ise dids,rogorc es iqneboda imSemTxvevaSi, Tu ki transna-cionaluri kompania mimRebqveyanas dauTmobda garkveu-li anazRaurebis safasuradturistuli produqciis war-moebis faqtors. Cadebulkapitalze transnaciona-luri kompania iRebs Semo-savals procentis saxiT,romelsac is ricxavs ,,sam-SobloSi~. mis filialebSidakavebuli muSa-xelis Zir-iTadi nawili, gansakuTrebiTki umaRlesi da saSualo

zonis menejerebi _ es arissazRvargareTidan mowveulikvalificiuri kadri. Tavi-si SromisTvis isini iRebenZalian maRal anazRaurebas,rasac ricxaven mudmiv sacx-ovrebel adgilze.

aRsaniSnavia, rom mimRe-bi qveyana saerTaSorisoturizmidan Semosavlebisdid nawils kargavs tran-snacionaluri kompaniebismier TavianTi mogebis ga-zidvis Sedegad. miuxedavadimisa, aris Tu ara transna-cionaluri kompania sawar-mos mepatrone, Tu kontra-qtiT marTavs mas, mas maincaqvs samewarmeo Semosavalianu mogeba. transfertulifaswarmoqmnis meqanizmis sa-SualebiT mogeba SeiZlebagadatanil iqnas erTi qvey-nidan meoreSi yovelgvarixiluli gadinebis gareSe.aqedan gamomdinare, mimRebiqveynis ekonomikaSi saerTa-Soriso turizmis CarTva Se-saZlebelia adgilobrivimuSa Zalis mozidvis Sede-gad (saubaria samuSaoebisiseT saxeobebze, romlebicar moiTxovs maRal kvali-

fikacias da specialur mo-mzadebas), adgilobrivimasalebis gamoyenebisasturistuli kompleqsis aR-Wurvisas, agreTve sasof-losameurneo produqtebisgamoyenebis Sedegad ucxoe-li vizitorebis gamosakve-bad. am SemTxvevaSi saerTa-Soriso turizmi zrdis qvey-anarecipientis mSp-s, xelsuwyobs mis ekonomikur gan-viTarebas. erovnul ekonomi-kaze transnacionaluri ko-mpaniis zemoqmedebis Sefase-ba ar iqneba sruli, Tu yura-dRebas ar mivaqcevT tran-snacionaluri kompaniebisrols codnis, gamocdileb-is, teqnologiuri saidum-loebebis (imis, rasac dasav-leTSi ,,nou-haus~ uwodeben)gadacemis kuTxiT. teqnol-ogiebis transferti Sein-iSneba, ara marto restorneb-is meurneobaSi, aramed sas-tumroebis, turoperatoreb-is da turistuli industri-is sxva seqtorebSi. ganaTa-vseben ra sazRvargareTsawarmoebs, xSirad inovaci-ursac, transnacionalurikompaniebi uaxlesi teqni-

saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris aviamimosvla faqtobrivadaRdgenilia. marTalia, avia-xelisuflebebi moskovi-Tbilisisreisebs Carters uwodeben, rusuli „sibiri~ da qarTuli „airze-na~ TavianT saitebze bileTebs Riad hyidian.

amis Sesaxeb rusuli gazeTi Rbcdaily wers. Tumca, gamocemisinformaciiT, pirdapiri aviareisebiT mgzavroba TiTqmis or-jer Zviri jdeba, vidre mesame qveynis gavliT frena. magaliTad,martSi „sibiris~ aRniSnul reisebze bileTi 15,5 aTasi rublieRireba. aseTive fasi aqvs „airzenasac~. kievis gavliT mosk-ovidan TbilisSi an piriqiT mgzavroba ki TiTqmis orjernaklebi jdeba. Rbcdaily-is SefasebiT, Tbilissa da ruseTs Sorisaviareisebze maRali moTxovnaa, Tumca turistuli nakadi poli-tikuri mizezebis gamo TiTqmis ar aris. Rbcdaily rusul bazarzeqarTuli produqciis SesaZlo dabrunebazec wers daaRniSnavs, rom ruseTSi „borjomis~ miwodeba sava-raudod uaxloes TveebSi ganaxldeba.

saqarTvelosTan aviamimosvlaaRdgenilia, `borjomi~ ki ruseTSi

ramdenime TveSi dabrundeba

77

mecnieruli xedvakisa da srulyofili te-qnologiis gamoyenebiTdemonstrirebas ukeTebenTavianT upiratesobebs na-cionalur kompaniebTan Se-darebiT. am ukanasknelebsgadmoaqvT mmarTvelobiTida samewamreo gamocdileba,zrdian ra amiT TavianTkonkurentunarioanobas.iseT qveynebSi, rogorebicaatailandi da tunisi, sadacturizmSi mowinave sazRvarg-areTuli gamocdileba gan-sakuTrebiT swrafad vr-celdeba, SeiniSneba mogeb-is aCqarebuli zrda mogza-urobis industriis adgilo-briv sawarmoebSi. zogier-Ti mTavroba calke gamoy-ofs teqnologiis trans-ferts, rogorc transnacio-naluri kompaniis saqmiano-bis pirobas maTi saxelmwi-fos teritoriaze. transna-cionaluri kompaniebi eko-nomikur zegavlenas axdenenara marto mimReb, aramed,,mSobliur~ qveyanaSic. es,internacionalizaciis me-ore mxare Seswavlilia gac-

ilebiT cudad. turistultransnacionalur kompanie-bs SeuZliaT Secvalon mog-zaurobebis Siga bazrisstruqtura da turistuliproduqtis warmoebis rent-abeloba. jer erTi, pataraqveyanaSi, sadac turizmisbazris tevadoba ar arissakmarisi warmoebis masSta-

bidan ekonomiis misaRebad,singapuris aviaxazebis ti-pis korporaciebi orien-tirebas iReben ekonomikuristrategiis ,,saeqsporto va-riantze~. msoflio eko-nomikaSi integraciis gareSeisini ver SeZlebdnen arse-bobas. meore, transnaciona-luri kompaniebi investicie-

Semosavlebis samsaxuri limonaTis damineraluri wylebis markirebis Sesaxeb kanon-proeqts amzadebs. samsaxuris ufrosis gan-martebiT, gadawyvetileba ukavSirdeba imas,rom qveyanaSi limonaTis warmoebasTan dakav-SirebiT sakmaod didi riskebia.

jaba ebanoiZis TqmiT, markirebis axalisistemis danergviT SesaZlebeli xdeba aq-cizur da araaqcizur saqonelze qaRaldurida uSualo markirebis ganxorcieleba; mo-nacemTa marTvis erTiani centralizebulisistemis Seqmna; adgilobrivi da importire-buli produqciis markirebis Sesaxeb infor-maciis realur droSi floba; samomxmareb-lo bazarze markirebuli saqonlis moZrao-bis kontroli da momxmareblisdacva falsificirebuli saqonlismoxmarebisgan.

limonaTis da mineraluri wylebismarkirebis Sesaxeb kanonproeqti mzaddeba


bs mimarTaven im destina-ciebSi, romlebic uzrunve-lyofen zRvrulad maRalSemosavlebs da amiT xelsuwyoben turizmis erovnulindustriaSi Cadebul kapi-talze saSualo Semosavliszrdas. mesame, nakadSi gasv-liTi turizmis produqteb-is warmoebaSi CaSvebiT, isi-ni agdeben fasebis donesSiga bazarze. meoTxe, gasv-liTi turizmze daxelovneb-uli transnacionaluri ko-mpaniebi Rebuloben bazire-bis qveynis bazarze monop-olistur sargeblobas.Tuki mas aqvs oligopoli-uri struqtura, korporacie-bi erTiandebian blokebSiTavianTi sabazro pozi-

ciebis dasacavad. da bolos,transnacionaluri kompanie-bi erovnul ekonomikaze Su-aledur zegavlenas axdenenturistuli nakadebis saSu-alebiT. mogzaurobebis ba-zarze maTi yofna, gansakuTre-biT ki iseTi Zlierebis,rogorebic evropuli tur-operatorebi arian, xSiradxdeba gasvliTi turizmisaqtivizaciis erT-erTi mize-zi. sazRvargareT gasvlaTaraodenobis gazrdiTa da mas-Tan dakavSirebuli qveynidanvalutis gadinebiT, iqmnebaturistuli sagadamxdelobalansis uaryofiTi saldo.amasTan erTad, swored tran-snacionaluri kompaniebissaqmianobis Sedegad SesaZle-

beli xdeba turistebis gata-nili valutis nawilis sam-SobloSi dabruneba.

transnacionlizaciisprocesebi maTi gamovlenisTanamedrove formebSi Za-lian urTierTsawinaaRmde-goa. cxeli diskusiebi tran-snacionaluri kompaniebisSesaxeb, romelTac safuZvladudevT RirebulebiTi, ideo-logiuri da politikuriuTanxmoebebi socialur-eko-nomikuri ganviTarebis bune-basa da wyaroebze, agreTvenacionaluri usafrTxoebissaSiSroebaze, izrdeba, tran-snacionaluri firmebiszrdisa da maTi ekonomikurieqspansiis gafarToebis Se-sabamisad.

gamoyenebuli literatura:

1. metreveli m. “turizmis Tanamedrove mdgomareoba da misi ganviTarebis perspeqtivebisaqarTveloSi~ sadisertacio naSromi Tb., 2001.

2. saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2006; Tb. 2007. gv. 703. SublaZe v. “saqarTveloSi turizmis ganviTarebis makroekonomikuri regulirebis

meqanizmi (siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi) sadisertacio naSromi. Tb., 2004.4. CikvaiZe T. ekonomikuri globalizaciisa da integraciis axali paradigma: arsi,

problemebi, perspeqtivebi. – J., “komersanti~, 2 20075. Александрова А.Ю. Международный туризм. М., 2003.

79

CONTENT

IRAKLI TEDORADZE.OPEC — THE DOMINANT PLAYER OF THE WORLD OIL MARKET--- 80

ADJARA TOURISM DEPARTMENT‘S ANNUAL REPORT ---------------- 80

LAZIKA PROJECT SCARES RUSSIANS -------------------------------------- 85

OPIC TRANSFERS 5 MLN TO TELLIANI VALLEY --------------------------- 86


he aim of the article isto clarify the System

of OPEC, how does it works,how OPEC does monopolize oilproduction and pricing. Also wewill highlight the historical con-ditions that caused such kindof monopoly and changes of theworld demand conditions.

Oil, due to its specific nature,is a key product and a strategiccommodity in today’s internation-al society. All over the world in-dustry is depending on it to sur-vive and its cost will always af-fect the price of the finished prod-uct, thereby its control is a pow-erful tool in today’s internationalmarket. According to the EIA1

(U.S. Energy Information Admin-istration), the world currentlyconsumes 85.64 million barrels ofcrude oil daily – roughly equiva-lent to every single person on theplanet using 2 liters of oil a day.With the current market prices ofa barrel of oil being $113.05, glo-bal consumption of oil costs $8.7billion every single day or $1.25for every person. Of course, theglobal distribution of oil con-sumption is not evenly spread outand developed and oil-rich statesconsume far more oil than lessdeveloped states. Also, all of thisoil is not simply consumed withan end product. Oil is involved inthe manufacture of a large num-ber of everyday items, such as

OPEC — THE DOMINANTPLAYER OF THE WORLD

OIL MARKET

plastics, asphalt, or fertilizers.All the above leads to the fact

that oil prices fluctuate around $110 whereas the cost of produc-ing is approximately 20 times less.Despite this, there is no sharp in-crease in the supply and it has last-ed for decades, since 1973. Thereis monopoly pricing and produc-tion - which is dictated by OPEC(Organization of Petroleum Ex-porting Countries).

The first move towards theestablishment of the Organizationof the Petroleum Exporting Coun-tries (OPEC) took place in 1949,when Venezuela approached Iran,Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia andsuggested that they should ex-change views and explore reve-nues for regular and closer com-munications between them.

The need for closer cooper-

ation became more apparentwhen, in 1959, the oil companiesinexplicable reduced the postedprice for Venezuelan crude be-tween 5¢ to 25¢ per barrel and thatfor the Middle East by 18¢/b. Thisprompted the convening of theFirst Arab Petroleum Congresswhich took place in Cairo, Egypt.The Congress adopted a resolu-tion calling on oil companies toconsult with the governments ofthe producing countries beforetaking any decision on oil prices.It also set up the general agreementon the establishment of an `OilConsultation Commission’.

In August 1960, the oil com-panies further reduced MiddleEast posted prices for crude bybetween 10¢ and 14¢/b. The fol-lowing month, the Government ofIraq invited Iran, Kuwait, Saudi

1 EIA official dates.

IRAKLI TEDORADZE

ADJARA TOURISMDEPARTMENT‘S ANNUAL REPORT

Tourism Department of the Adjara Region summed up the year 2011at the briefing today. Department‘s authorities say the year was verysuccessful from the point of view of the tourist attraction, as the numberof visitors to the region increased with 39%.

In 2012, the department offers five novelties to the visitors in 2012.Within the infrastructure development project, the department foreseesopening of new hotels, new tourist info-centers, holding agriculture exhi-bitions, development of cycle racing in Batumi and skiing-tourism in moun-tainous regions of Adjara.

The head of the Adjara Tourism Department Vazha Diasamidze saidthe international prize given to Batumi as the best resort city and therecord number of visitors in winter proved that the region was develop-ing. He said the results were satisfactory, however, the depart-ment would intensify its efforts to improve these results.

T

81

Scientific ViewArabia and Venezuela have to meet in Baghdad, to discuss the inexplicable reduction in prices of crude’sproduced by their respective countries.

As a result, from 10–14 September 1960, a conference was held in Baghdad, attended by representa-tives of the Governments of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. It was this First Conferencewhich established OPEC as a permanent intergovernmental organization of oil-exporting developing nationsthat coordinates and unifies the petroleum policies of its Member Countries. OPEC seeks to ensure thestabilization of oil prices in international oil markets, with a view to eliminate harmful and unnecessaryfluctuations, due to being given at any time to the interests of oil-producing nations and to the necessity ofsecuring a steady income for them. Equally important is OPEC’s role in overseeing an efficient, economic andregular supply of petroleum to consuming nations, and a fair return on capital to those investing in thepetroleum industry.

OPEC member courtiers2:

OPEC’s monopoly position in the world oil market is determined by the several factors. Let discussthem in chronological order:

The First Oil Shock (1973 – 1975). The 1973 oil crisis started in October 1973, when the members ofOrganization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries or the OPEC (consisting of the Arab members ofOPEC, plus Egypt, Syria and Tunisia) proclaimed an oil embargo “in response to the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military~ during the Yom Kippur war; it lasted until March 1974.4 With the US actions seenas initiating the oil embargo and the long term possibility of high oil prices, disrupted supply and recession,a strong rift was created within NATO. Additionally, some European nations and Japan sought to avoidthemselves from the US Middle East policy. Arab oil producers had also linked the end of the embargo withsuccessful US efforts to create peace in the Middle East, which complicated the situation. Independently,the OPEC members agreed to use their leverage over the world price setting mechanism for oil to stabilize

2 Ecuador suspended its Membership in December 1992 and reactivated it in December 2007. Gabon, which became a FullMember in 1975, terminated its Membership with effect from 1 January 1995. Indonesia, which became a Full Member in 1962,suspended its Membership in December 2008.3 Ecuador suspended its Membership in December 1992 and reactivated it in December 2007. Gabon, which became a FullMember in 1975, terminated its Membership with effect from 1 January 1995. Indonesia, which became a Full Member in 1962,suspended its Membership in December 2008.4Hubbert, Marion King (June 1956). “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels `Drilling and Production Practice’~ (PDF). SpringMeeting of the Southern District. Division of Production. American Petroleum Institute. San Antonio, Texas: Shell Develop-ment Company. pp. 22–27.


their real incomes by raising world oil prices. Thisaction followed several years of steep income de-clines after the recent failure of negotiations withthe major Western oil companies earlier in the month.

Impact of the 1973-1975 oil shock on the worldeconomy5:

• The growth rate fell to 2.1% in 1974 and to1.4% in 1975.

• The impact on worldwide trade also wastremendous: after a growth rate of 12% in 1973,growth was negative in the following two years -5.4% and -7.3% in 1975.

• Another factor which has changed signifi-cantly was the flow of Foreign Direct Investment.While the annual Foreign Direct Investment Growthreached 40% in 1973, the rate fell by half in 1974.

• The oil shock of 1973-1974 had had a bigeffect on the US economy; however its GDP growthfell from more than 5.7% in 1973 to -0.5% and -0.19% in 1974 and 1975.

• Another factor which was significantly af-fected by this oil shock is inflation, which was morethan tripled from 1972 to 1974, from 3.3% to 11.1%.

• These changes also impacted upon the unem-ployment rate, which rose from 4.9% in 1973 to ap-proximately 8.5% in 1975.6

The Second Oil Shock (1979 – 1980). The 1979(or second) oil crisis in the world occurred in the wakeof the Iranian Revolution. This crisis has an impact onthe world economy which was emphasized in:

1. Worldwide economy growth slightly de-creased from 4.7% in 1978 to 4% in 1979 to reach0.8% in 1982.

2. greater fluctuation in the international trade,from 5.2% to -3.1% in 1982.

3. US GDP growth fell by 0.23% in 1980 andunemployment in the US rose from 5.8% in 1979 to7.6% in 1981 and 9.7% in 1982. also US inflationrose from 7.6% in 1978 to 13.5% in 1980.

From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the in-flation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil onNYMEX was generally under $25/barrel. During 2003,the price rose above $30, reached $60 by August 11,2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008. annalistswere attributed these price increasing to many fac-tors, including reports from the United States Depart-ment of Energy and others showing a decline in pe-

troleum reserves,7 worries over peak oil,8 Middle Easttension, and oil price speculation. But the most im-portant in the dominant role of OPEC is the oil re-serves which this organization has9 Alternative sourc-es of energy are not so efficient as an oil or the busi-ness risks are higher. All mentioned above makesOPEC a dominant player in the world oil market.

The natural strength of OPEC arises from the dis-tribution of oil production capacity among members.Countries with large populations and considerable de-velopment require to be tended to smaller oil reserves.10

When we are talking about OPEC we have tounderline that OPEC is a non typical cartel. It has itsown distinctive features, which makes it possible tooperate efficiently and do not decompose, whichcontradicts the traditional theory of international car-tels. So what has caused such a stability of OPEC?Certainly this is the specific nature of oil, the men-tality of the participants, special flexible rules of quot-ing and the allocation. OPEC is a Cartel but the maindifference is that it’s a cartel of countries of mostlyone, Muslim ideology; the natural wealth of OPECis not the case of one day. It has to save resourcesfor the next generations even to the account of to-day’s profit. OPEC is a cartel which monopoliesspecific product – oil on the world market.

The success of OPEC is defined not only bythe monopolization of oil but also by the Arabianmentalities of member countries and the overall ideaswhere the West is existed in the role of enemy. Inspite of a profit it draws more attention to the unityof their Arabian originality.

OPEC Member Countries respond to market fun-damentals and forecast developments by coordinat-ing their petroleum policies.

Production quotas are one possible response.If demand grows, or some producers supply lessoil, OPEC can increase its oil production to prevent asudden rise in prices or shortfall in supply. OPECmight also reduce its oil production in response tomarket conditions, as a means of countering fallingprices or a glut on the market.

The impact of OPEC output decisions on crude oilprices must be considered separately from the issue ofchanges in the prices of oil products, such as gasolineor heating oil. There are many factors that influence theprices paid by end-consumers for oil products. So even

5 The conclusions are based on IMF statistical annual publications.6 Licklider, Roy (1988), “The Power of Oil: The Arab Oil Weapon and the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan,and the United States~, International Studies Quarterly 32 (2): 205–226 [p. 206].7 “Record oil price sets the scene for $200 next year~. AME. July 6, 2006.. Retrieved 2007-11-29.8 “Peak Oil News Clearinghouse~. EnergyBulletin.net.9 OPEC official site.10 H. Houthakker. The world price of oil: A medium-term analysis p.13.

83

Scientific View

a major change in the price of crudemight have only a minor impact onconsumer prices.

In general most membershave always produced within theirquotas but there have been manycases when members cheat11. Intheir settlement among the OPECcountries Saudi Arabia is the mostinfluential Member. Other mem-ber nations can produce as with-in their Quota limit (which is al-most close to their maximum ca-pacity) but Saudi Arabia works asa swing producer meaning that incase any fluctuation in oil produc-tion Saudi Arabia will cover anyloss or gain in production. Thisway the overall production will beat stable limit. Nations can pro-duce other hydrocarbon gradesnot within OPEC quota limits.

OPEC doesn’t have specificregulations of voting and allocationprocess. Neither OPEC statue, norother standing orders contain thedescription of this issue. That’s

why we will have to summarizethe OPEC’s reports of final meet-ing. OPEC consumes the simplemajority system. It will be ex-tremely simple to explain only withthis words the system of voting ifwe go through the issue deeper itwill be found out that is very com-plicated and inexhaustible.

With in taking decision OPECbased on two backwards:

• On the one hand maximi-zation goal of profit and

• Other hand interests of eachmember countries

It’s too complicated to reachbalance between of these two sides.Saudi Arabia as a core producer andexporter which has main role to takethe responsibility for itself.

Absence of voting rules andproblems connected with it clearlyrevealed in OPEC’s quota systemdecision, where OPEC prefers to“close eye~ to the cheating in or-der to avoid the official precedentof quoting changes.

In the picture 1 we see theworld oil price curve which illus-trate the rising of price

The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) and the In-ternational Energy Agency (IEA)should make official statementsabout declining world oil produc-tion now to renew the focus onoil conservation and alternativerenewable energy sources12.

As it is already known theformation of prices depends ontwo factors: demand and supply.So to make a prediction about thefuture of oil prices we must takeinto account two aspects - thepolicy of OPEC as the major sup-plier, and the demand of oil con-sumer countries: where UnitedStates with 19,150,000 millionbbl/day consumption is the first,China is the world’s second larg-est oil consuming countrywith 9.1 million bbl/day. Japanranked third word’s oil consum-ing country with oil consumptionof 4.6 million bbl/day. India is thefifth largest oil consuming coun-try with 3.1 million bbl/day.

Over the past decade, Chi-na’s oil consumption has doubled

11 Emma, Ukpana: “OPEC as a Cartel:Can US antitrust laws are applied ex-traterritorially?~ 12 EIA dates.


to more than 9.1 million barrels aday. And many believes that thenext decade could be seen as evenlarger increase, as the country’sdemand has been growing at a20%. It has even become theworld’s second biggest importerof oil, relying on outside sourcesfor about 5 million out of the 9.1million barrels of oil a day it uses.In January 2010, China’s oil de-mand increased by 28% year byyear, prompting the InternationalEnergy Agency to call it “aston-ishing.~ That stems from not onlythe country’s rapid industrializa-tion, but also its growing middleclass and their growing needs.

China’s recently announced12th Five Year Plan for the period2011–2015 includes a focus uponincreasing energy efficiency, de-creasing carbon intensities, reduc-ing the share of fossil fuels in theenergy mix, pushing battery celltechnology development, as wellas sustaining economic growth atan average of 7% p.a. over thenext five years. The Plan containsan energy consumption target nomore than 2,800 million tones ofoil equivalent p.a. by 2015. Thisis a challenging target consider-ing that it is only 8.5% above 2010

levels. In the previous five-yearperiod, China’s energy consump-tion actually increased by around39%. A new carbon intensity re-duction concept is also included;in terms of CO emissions per unitof gross domestic product, thePlan states that the country willlook to reduce this by 17% by2015 compared to 2010 levels.

Chinese oil demand is expect-ed to grow the most world-widedespite of the government effortsto curb energy use within thecountry. Chinese oil demand isexpected to inch up by 5.1% y-o-y. Along with China, the Mid-dle East, India, Brazil, and the restof the non- OECD countries willboost world oil demand by 1.2mb/d or 1.4 % in 2012.

Based on the OPEC’s long-termstrategy paper13 it seems that OPECwill reduce the production but thedemand will grow up. So, it will in-evitably increase the price of oil.

Oil prices are important forGeorgia because it is an oil im-porter. Georgia’s oil consuming is13,000 bbl/day when its produc-es about 984 bbl/day. Accordingto this data we can make a simpleconclusion – Georgia is a passive

player in the world of oil marketand totally depends on pricing ofoil exporting countries.

CONCLUSIONAs it’s already mentioned

OPEC mostly consists from themember countries with one Arabi-an mentality and they are acting asa non traditional cartel which cre-ates their main strength. The rightpolicy, tactical decisions and thedominant place by the world oil re-serves puts OPEC into the unbreak-able and invincible position. Withintaking decision OPEC based on twobackwards: 1) On the one handmaximization goal of profit and 2)take into account national interestsof each member countries. It’s toocomplicated to reach balance be-tween of these two sides. SaudiArabia as a core producer and ex-porter which has main role to takethe responsibility for itself.

Absence of voting rules andproblems connected with it clearlyrevealed in OPEC’s quota systemdecision, where OPEC prefers to“close eye~ to the cheating in or-der to avoid the official precedentof quoting changes.

The global financial crisis of2008 and the ensuing Great Reces-

Pic. 1.

13 Official document of OPEC.

85

Scientific View

sion had enormous implications fordemand projections in both theshort- and medium-term. For ex-ample, the WTO14 2009 document-ed how dramatically GDP fore-casts for 2009 were revised: while

in July 2008 expected economicgrowth in OECD regions for thisyear was in the range of 1.3–1.6%,OECD economies actually shrunkby an average of 3.4%. This, inturn, had consequences for oil de-mand, which in OECD countries

contracted by 1.4 million barrelsper day (mb/d) in 2009. Moreover,the WTO 2009 foresaw recoveryfrom the recession as being onlygradual, and this affected mediumterm oil demand prospects, whichreached just 90.2 mb/d in 201514 World trade Organization.

The project of a new resort city, the construction of which begins this year inSamegrelo Region, Georgia, has scared Russians. Political analysts and media be-lieves that Russia`s investments made in the development of Olympic Villages inthe seaside resort of Sochi, will be just a waste of funds and time, as Lazika will bethe project which will attract tourists in the region.

The author of an analytical article published on Russianrealty.ru website, Al-bert Akopyan says he sees no chances of the development of Sochi; the invest-ments will not be profitable as the business sector has already confirmed this.

According to experts, teh hotels in Sochi will lack visitors after the WinterOlympics 2014, as the development of the seaside resort needs not only hotels, butdevelopment of tourism, shopping tours, food and wine tours, which do not work inSochi currently.

Akopyan says Lazika will be the second success of Georgian tourism afterMestia, adding the new airport in Zugdidi grew the prospects of the resort develop-ment.

The journalist emphasizes the speed, sort and the low prices of constructionbusiness, which finally is reflected on the price of product. Akopyan says thepresident of the neighbor country will organize to bring internationalfestivals to the new city of Lazika from Europe and the Black Sea states,which diminishes the prospect of Sochi development as a resort.

LAZIKA PROJECT SCARES RUSSIANS


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15 WOO official paper of OPEC.16 For now its 94$.

compared to the 96.1 mb/d expect-ed in the WTO 2008. This had al-ready been factored into the WTO2010, with increased mediumterm demand expectations. Thisprocess of re-evaluation has con-tinued with global economicgrowth for 2010 at an average of4.7%. As a result, the medium-term outlook for oil demand re-flects an upward revision fromlast year’s assessment. Howev-er, it is worth stressing that risksappear skewed towards the down-side, especially since the sover-eign debt crisis in some EU coun-tries seems to be spreading andthe world economy slowing downfurther, with potential conse-quences for the global financialsystem.

The world economic outlookhas been worsening due to thechallenges facing to the OECDeconomies. The forecast forworld GDP next year has beenrevised further down reflectingthese uncertainties. Next year’soil demand growth is expected tocome from the non-OECD, main-ly China, India, the Middle Eastand Latin America. By sector, in-dustrial – particularly, petro-chemical – and transport sectorswill contribute the most expec-tations oil demand growth. US oildemand is expected to return toits normal growth mode; how-ever, it will remain the wild cardfor 2012. Furthermore, petro-leum product retail prices willplay a major role in oil demand

next years, mainly in the trans-port sector. The EU oil demandwill continue to contact nextyears resulting not only fromweak economic growth but alsofrom maintaining its efficiencytrend. OECD Pacific oil demandwill be in better shape than Eu-rope’s Japan’s oil consumptionwill reflect rebuilding projects.World oil demand is forecast togrow by 1.2 mb/d in 2012 to av-erage 89.0 mb/d.

Based on World oil outlookpaper15 and having consideredthe supply and demand perspec-tives made by OPEC oil basketprice will be risen to $106 by203016.

OPIC TRANSFERS 5 MLNTO TELLIANI VALLEY

The first outcome of the meeting between Georgian andUS presidents came a day after the meeting in the Oval Of-fice of the White House in Washington on Monday - Inter-national governmental organization has transferred the fivemillion dollar tranche to the account of the Telliani ValleyCompany.

The funds will be spent on the popularization and de-velopment of the Georgian wine business, including explor-ing new markets for Georgian wine, development of winetourism in Georgia, making new products and growth of wineexport.

OPIC - Overseas Private Investment Corporation -is theU.S. Government’s development finance institution. It mo-bilizes private capital to help solve critical world challengesand in doing so, advances U.S. foreign policy. Because OPICworks with the U.S. private sector, it helps U.S. businessesgain footholds in emerging markets catalyzing revenues, jobsand growth opportunities both at home and abroad. OPICachieves its mission by providing investors with financing,guarantees, political risk insurance, and support for privateequity investment funds.

Negotiations between the OPIC and the Telliani Valleywere underway for the past two years, but the direct transac-tion was made only right after the meeting of the two presi-dents. U.S. president Barack Obama said at the meetingwith Mikheil Saakashvili on Monday that OPIC wasactively involved in the development of private busi-ness in Georgia.

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