santorum path to victory memo - 3.11

8/2/2019 Santorum Path to Victory Memo - 3.11

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To: MikeBiundo

From: JohnPatrickYob

Date: March11th,2012

Re: SantorumPathtoDelegateVictory

RickSantorumisverywellpositionedtoearnthedelegatesnecessarytowinthe

nationalconventiondespitewhattheRomneycampaignandtheirofficial/unofficial

surrogatesfuzzymathmayclaim.

AsaresultoftheirinabilitytoinspiretheGOPbasedonmessage,theRomney

campaignmadethecuriousdecisiontoleadtheirpost-SuperTuesdaycampaign

withtheargumentthattheraceisover,ratherthantoutinghispositivequalitiesas

acandidate.

Theefforttotalkaboutthemathwasadefensivesmokescreenintendedtodistract

fromthemajorproblemstheRomneycampaignfacesincounty,district,andstateconventionsacrossthecountrywhennationalconventiondelegatesareactually

elected.

Therealityissimple:theRomneymathdoesntaddupandhewillhaveavery

difficulttimeevergettingtoamajorityofthedelegates.

ThesituationisonlygoingtogetworseforthemandbetterforRickSantorumastimepasses.Simplyput,timeisonourside.

StrengthofCandidacy

Romneyhasbeenforcedtooutspendthefielddramaticallyinordertobarelywinin

statesheshouldhavewonhandily(MichiganandOhio),andlosingotherstatesby

widemargins(TennesseeandOklahoma).

RickSantorumcontinuestowincontestsandgainnationalconventiondelegates

becausehehasemergedasthefavoriteoftheconservativegrassrootsbaseofthe

RepublicanParty.Asaresulthehaswinsinmostcaucuses.Healsohaswonthe

majorityofcountieseveninRomneystatesexcludingmoderateurbanareas.


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SupportfromConservativeBase

Romneyhasprovenincapableofinspiringgrassrootsconservativesupportincaucusesashehaslostmosteverycaucuscontestdespiteoutspendingtheother

candidatesbymanymultiples.

Similarly,thereareseriouscracksintheRomneyfinanceoperationasthecampaignfinancereportsshowthatheisincapableofinspiringgrassrootsdonorsacrossthecountrytodonatetohiscampaign.Insteadhiscampaignsarefundedby

contributorswhohavealreadymaxedoutandareincapableofdonatingagaininthe

primary.ThisexplainswhytheSuperPACisforcedtopayforsuchalarge

proportionoftheirpaidmedia.

Thelackofgrassrootssupportthatplaguedhiscaucusstatesoperation,andplagued

hissmalldonoroperation,willnowplaguehisnationaldelegateelectionoperation.

RickSantorumhasexcelledincaucusesandsmalldollarcontributionsandtherefore

willalsoexcelatstateconventionswhereactivistsaremoreconservativethantheaverageprimaryvoter.

LongerProportionalProcessFavorsMoreConservativeCandidates

IservedinasimilarroleforJohnMcCain2008.Atthispointoftheprocessthere

wasaveryrealconcernaboutthepossibilityofamoreconservativecandidate

stayingintheraceandfightingusatstateconventionsacrossthecountrywheremoreconservativeactivistsdeterminetheelectionofNationalConvention

Delegates.AlthoughJohnMcCainwaswinningprimariesinafracturedconservativefield,hewasnotthefavoriteofgrassrootsconservativeactivistsintheparty.

Similarly,inthisrace,adrawnoutprocessfavorsconservativecandidatessuchas

RickSantorum.ThisisamajorproblemforMittRomney,themoderateinthisrace.

Evenmoreimportantly,theproportionalprocessthatRomneysupporterspushed

throughtheRepublicanNationalCommitteehasturnedouttobeamajorproblem

forthecampaign.Suddenlytheelectionoftheactualdelegatesatcounty,state,and

districtcaucusesisnowmoreimportantthantheprimariesregardlessofwhatthe

mediacoversasdeterminative.Itisdifficultforanycandidatetoclinchthe

nominationinaproportionalcalendarwithoutover-performinginthestate

conventionsthatelectthedelegates.Asaresult,thestateconventionswill

ultimatelydeterminetheoutcomeofthisrace.

RomneyFrontloadedFriendlyStatesRomneysupportersontheRepublicanNationalCommitteemanipulatedthe

calendartofront-loadseveralofthestatesthatwerefavorabletowardshim.Thatwasbeneficialtohisearlyleadinthedelegatecount,howeveritisproblematicfor

himastheracecontinuesandmovestowardslessfriendlystates.Thisisoneofthe

reasonsthattheyemphasizedfuzzymathafterSuperTuesday.


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RaceMovestowardsSantorumsStrengths

TheraceforthenominationwillsoonstarttomovetowardsprimariesandcaucusesthataremorefavorableterrainforRickSantorum.Moreimportantly,theracewill

eventuallymovefromprimariesandcaucusesthatareoftenbeautyconteststoreal

countyandstateconventioncontestswhereactualdelegatestothenational

conventionareelected.Anyonewhoknowsanythingaboutstateconventionsknowsthatthemost

conservativecandidatehasabigadvantageoveramoderatecandidate.Inmany

cases,thisadvantageisoverwhelming.

RomneysDelegateProblem

Romneyhasadelegateprobleminthathewillhaveaveryhardtimegettinghis

moderatesupporterselectedasdelegatesintheseconventionsystems.Thiswas

evidentinIowathisweekendwheretheRomneyoperationcollapsed,andSantorum

andPaulgained.

TheRealCalendar

TheRealCalendar(TRC)officiallykickedoffthisweekendinIowawhereactivists

gatheredtobegintheprocessofelectingnationalconventiondelegates.Itisclearto

anyonewhounderstandsthisprocessthatamoderatecandidatelikeMittRomneyis

goingtohaveadifficulttimewinningasmanydelegatestothenationalconvention

inanIowaCountyandStateConventionsystemasthemediacalculatedbasedontheOpenCaucussystemthattookplaceinJanuary.Thissystemwillplayoutin

stateafterstate,andalthoughtherewillbehiccupsincertainstates,onaverageRickSantorumwillgainfarmoredelegatesthanMittRomneythroughthisdelegate

electionprocess.

TheRealCount

ThecountlargelydependsonhowyoucalculatethedelegatesinstatessuchasIowa

thathavenotyetelectedtheirNationalConventionDelegates.Forexample,theRNC

currentlygivesSantorum0delegatesforIowaandthemediagiveshim7.We

believehewillendupwithmorethan7delegatesastheprocessplaysout.Wealso

believethatRomneywillreceiveless.

Mostofthepubliclyavailabledelegatecountsarefundamentallyflawedbecause

noneofthemhavetakenintoaccountthatconservativegrassrootsactivistsat

countyandstateconventionswillelectmoreSantorumdelegatesthanaprimaryor

evencaucusbeautycontestinthesamerespectivestatewouldallocate.Therefore,theRealCountsarefarbetterthantheprojectedcountsandwillcontinueto

improveastheNationalConventionapproachesandstateselecttheiractualconventiondelegates.TheSantorumcampaignwillkeepatallycalledtheReal

Countmovingforward.ItwillbebasedontheresultsofboththeRealCalendarand

theTraditionalCalendar.


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TraditionalCalendar

ThereisunlikelytobeverymuchchangeinthedelegatetotalsbasedontheresultsofTuesdayscontests.Regardlessoftheresults,weanticipatethisfinallybecoming

anelectionbetweenthemoderateestablishmentcandidateandtheconservative

grassrootscandidateaswemovetowardsMissouriandbeyond.

March15th24thMissouriRickSantorumwilldoverywellinMissouri,winanumberofdelegates,andhave

momentumheadingintoIllinoisandLouisiana.

March18thPuertoRico

PuertoRicoPrimaryisdifficulttomeasurebutisntlikelytoresultinmomentumfor

anycandidate.

March20thIllinoisMittRomneymighthaveanedgeinIllinoisbutwefeelverygoodaboutourabilityto

onceagainwinthemoreconservativeareasofthestate,earnaconsiderablenumberofdelegates,andmaintainmomentumheadingintoLouisiana.

March24thLouisianaPrimaryLouisianaisgoingtoallocateapproximatelyhalfofitsdelegatesinthePrimaryon

March24thandhalfofthemlaterinacaucusprocess.ItislikelythatSantorumpicks

upconsiderabledelegatesinbothofthesecontests.

WeassumethatNewtGingrichwillbecomelessofafactorintermsofvotetotalsin

racesaftertheLouisianaPrimary,ifnotbefore.

April3rdWisconsin,Maryland,andDCTheseprimariesarewinnertakeall.Theycouldbethefirstconteststhatareaone-

on-onebetweenaconservativeandamoderate.Theemphasisthatdayislikelyto

beonWisconsin.MostrecentpollinghasshownSantorumtobedoingquitewellin

thestateanditisexpectedtobeaveryclosecontest.Notbeingontheballotwas

notaproblemforusinDCbecauseDCRepublicanswouldalmostsurelyvoteforthe

mostmoderatecandidateanyway.

April24thNewYork,Pennsylvania,Connecticut,RhodeIsland,andDelawareRickSantorumwillwinaverylargenumberofdelegatesonApril24thincludinghis

homestateofPennsylvania.SomeanalystsinthemediahavearguedthatRomney

willdowellintheNortheastbecauseheisthemoderateintheracehoweverthatisnotnecessarilyconsistentwithrecenthistoryincontestedprimariesinthesefive

states.April24thcouldbeagooddayforRickSantorum.


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May8thNorthCarolina,Indiana,andWestVirginia

WebelievethatMay8thisthedatethatputsRickSantorumonapathtothenominationwithapositivemonth.RickSantorumwillhavethemomentumcoming

outofthesecontests.Ourresearchshowsusthateventheuncommitteddelegates

inWestVirginiafavorSantorum.

May15th-NebraskaandOregonRickSantorumwilldowellonMay15thinNebraskaandholdhisowninOregon.

May22ndKentuckyandArkansasRickSantorumwilllikelywinamajorityofthedelegatesonMay22ndandgain

significantmomentumheadingintoTexas.

May29thTexas

RickSantorumwillwintheTexasPrimaryanddramaticallyclosethepublic

delegategapwithMittRomneyonMay29th.

June5thCalifornia,NewJersey,SouthDakota,Montana,andNewMexicoThecandidatewhowinsthemostdelegatesonJune5thwillleadthepublicdelegate

countgoingintothenationalconvention.RickSantorumwillalsoleadtheReal

Countbythispoint.

June26thUtah WewillgooutonalimbandpredictthatRomneywillwinUtah.

ConservativeMajorityofDelegates:Publicvs.ActualDelegateCounts

ThereisaConservativeMajorityofdelegatesemergingascountyandstate

conventionselecttheiractualNationalConventiondelegates.ThisConservativeMajoritywillsupportRickSantorumoveramoderate-establishmentRomney.

TherearethreereasonswhythecountsthatareputoutbytheRNCandmedia

organizationsarenotreflectiveoftherealnumbers:

UnboundandUncommittedDelegateselectedbygrassrootsactivistsaremorelikelytofavorSantorumthanthoseelectedbydirectprimaryelection.

ThisrepresentsamovementofdelegatesintoSantorumstally.

BounddelegateselectedbygrassrootsactivistswillfavorSantorumasrulesallow.

GingrichdelegatesaremorelikelytofavorSantorum.

RuleBreakingstatessuchasFloridaandArizona.


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UnboundDelegates

Ashasbeendescribedpreviously,unbounddelegatesaremuchmorelikelytofavorRickSantorumthanMittRomneybecausetheyarelargelyelectedbymore

conservativecaucusandconventionsystems.Therefore,thisraceismuch,much

closerthanwhatthecurrentmediaandRNCcountsportray.

BoundDelegates

Bounddelegatesarelargelyelectedatstateconventionsacrossthecountryand

thereforearemoreconservativethananaverageprimaryvoter.Iftheconvention

goesmultipleballots,itislikelythataconservativecandidatelikeRickSantorum

willgainvotesonthe2ndand3rdballotswhereasamoderatecandidatelikeMitt

Romneywilllosevotes.

GingrichDelegates

WeobviouslydonotknowhowNewtGingrichwillmoveforwardwithhiscampaign

butweareconfidentthatwhetherbeforetheconventionorontheconventionfloor

thatwhenthetimecomesNewtGingrichdelegatesarefarmorelikelytovoteforRickSantorumthantheyareforMittRomney.

MajorityNeededforRomney,NotforSantorum

MittRomneymusthaveamajorityonthefirstballotinordertowinthenomination

becausehewillperformworseonsubsequentballotsasgrassrootsconservative

delegatesdecidetobackthemoreconservativecandidate.Subsequently,Santorumonlyneedstoberelativelycloseontheinitialballotinordertowinonalaterballot

asRomneyssupporterodes.

RomneyDifficultyingetting50%ofRemainingDelegates

EvenRomneysowncountersadmitthatheneedstoearnalmost50%oftheremainingdelegatesinordertowinthenomination.Webelievethisnumberis

higherthan50%forthereasonsdescribedinthismemo.Regardless,thisisgoingto

beverydifficultinathreeorfourpersonrace,especiallyashelosesdelegatesat

stateconventionssuchasIowa.

FloridaandArizona

FloridaandArizonabrokeRNCrulesbothwhentheymovedforwardandalsowhen

theychosetoallocatedelegates.Theirdelegationswillbechallengedifseatedas

winner-take-all.

ConclusionTimeisonRickSantorum'sside.Hewillgaindelegatesasthisprocessplaysoutand

conservativesareelectedasNationalConventionDelegates.DespitetheRomneycampaignssmokescreen,theycannotchangethefactthathecantinspirethebase

oftheparty,hasadelegateproblem,andhasaverydifficulttimegettingtoa

majority.


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Thedelegateraceiscurrentlymuchcloserthansomewouldlikepeopletobelieve.It

willgetevencloserasactualnationalconventiondelegatesareelectedatcounty,district,andstateconventionsacrossthecountry.TheyrepresenttheConservative

MajorityoftheRepublicanParty,andthatisahugeproblemforamoderate

candidatelikeMittRomney.

Furthermore,RickSantorumwillgainthemomentuminlateMaybywinningKentucky,Arkansas,andTexasandheadintoCaliforniaandNewJerseywith

significantmomentum.

AtthatpointtherewillbeaConservativeMajorityofthedelegatestotheNational

ConventionandRickSantorumwillbecomethepresumedRepublicannomineefor

PresidentoftheUnitedStates.

__

Please also read:

RomneysFuzzyMathforaFuzzyCampaign

http://www.newsmax.com/Ruddy/mitt-romney-santorum-

gingrich/2012/03/08/id/431848

RomneysCuriousClaimofMathematicalInevitability

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/romneys-curious-claim-mathematical-

inevitability_633326.html

TwointheBush:IsRomneyCountingHisIowaDelegatesTooSoon?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/09/two-in-the-bush-is-romney-

counting-his-iowa-delegates-too-soon.html

santorum path to victory memo - 3.11

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