Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s

Status of San Francisco’s Recovery: Autumn 2010

Ted Egan, Chief Economist Office of Economic Analysis

October, 2010

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s National GDP Has Seen Four Quarters of Growth, but Growth is Slowing

2

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s National Employment Was Showing a Perfect “V”...But Now Flat for 3 Months

3

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s Local and State Job Recoveries Have Stopped: July the Worst Month Yet Locally

4

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s Where Are We Headed?

•  Despite the depth of the recession, it has followed a fairly typical pattern: –  Sharp drop in output and employment –  Leveling-off and then growth in output –  Leveling off but no growth yet in jobs.

•  But this recession/crisis continues to feature unusual linkage between regulation and economic output.

•  When the Federal government and Federal Reserve have tried to normalize policies in recent months, the recovery has weakened.

•  Are we headed for a double-dip...or is it just one big dip? •  Positive Signs: Investment Spending •  Worrying Signs: Housing

5

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s Although Unemployment is at Historic Highs, San Francisco Escaped the Worst

6

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s Up in a Down Market: Growth in IT, Green, Biotech, and Others

7

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s Bay Area Venture Capital Has Returned to Pre-Recession Levels

8

Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers, National Venture Capital Association

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s Green Tech, Software, and Biotech Drive the Vast Majority of VC Investment Today

9

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s Projections: Private Non-Farm Employment

10

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s Projections: Median Housing Price

11

Cit

y an

d C

ount

y of

San

Fra

ncis

co

Off

ice

of t

he C

ontr

olle

r –

Off

ice

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysi

s Projections: Housing Permits

12