local market trends The Real Estate Report

NORTH COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY

Ryan Mathys & Tracie Kersten

Ryan Mathys & Tracie Kersten | ryan@profundrealestate.com | (858) 405-4004

ProFund Financial & Real Estate 7777 Fay Avenue, Suite G4 La Jolla, CA 92037 (858) 405-4004 ryan@profundrealestate.com http://www.profundrealestate.com CA DRE #01361941

Inside This Issue

> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1

> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2

> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2

> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3

> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3

> CHARTS: SP/LP & SALES YTD .......... 4

Jan 12 Dec 11 Jan 11

Median Price: 335,000$ 345,500$ 355,000$

Av erage Price: 440,360$ 451,054$ 448,190$

Home Sales: 1,440 1,974 1,244

Pending Sales: 3,389 3,084 3,016

Inv entory : 8,175 7,850 9,754

Median Price: 205,000$ 205,000$ 215,650$

Av erage Price: 256,570$ 259,943$ 238,369$

Condo Sales: 634 891 713

Pending Sales: 1,447 1,339 1,558

Inv entory : 3,546 3,460 4,900

(Single-family Homes)

(Condos/Town Homes)

Trends at a Glance

FEBRUARY/MARCH 2012

If you’ve been considering a short sale, it’s time to get off the stick. Short sales are notorious for taking a long time, like six months or more.

If you are upside down and are having problems making your payments, it’s time to do something. It’s going to take a long time before an upside down property becomes positive.

MARKET STATISTICS Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 15.8% year-over-year in January. This is the sev-enth month in a row home sales have been higher than the year before.

Condo sales were down 6.1% year-over-year.

The median price for homes was down 5.6% year-over-year. This is the twelfth month in a row the median price has been lower than the year before.

The median price for condos rose 1.5% year-over-year.

Inventory of both homes and condos continues to be weak. Home inventory was down 16.1% com-pared to last January.

Once upon a time, when a homeowner did a short sale, the IRS counted the difference between what the bank took and what the homeowner owed as income. Not much incentive there.

In 2007, the federal government enacted the MDRA that allows qualified taxpayers to exclude that “income”.

The law will end December 31st.

You must close the short sale by then.

Other qualifications include:

• Good for up to $2,000,000 in forgiven debt

• Only works for principal homes

• The tax rule can be applied to debt used to refinance your home, provided the principal balance of the old mortgage, immediately before the refinancing, would have qualified.

See “The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation” for additional information. Use this link: http://tinyurl.com/5pe43f .

Mortgage Debt Relief Act to Expire

Condo inventory was down 28% year-over-year.

Pending home sales grew by 12.4% year-over-year. That’s fourteen months in a row pending sales have been higher than the year before.

Pending condo sales were down 16.4% year-over-year.

Sales momentum moved into positive territory in January for the first time since August 2010: 0.4. Pricing momentum continues to deteriorate and is now at –5.1. Pricing momentum has been negative since July 2011.

Please remember, while statistics are nice, they will not determine the price you pay or get for a proper-ty. That will come down to you and the buyer or seller.

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San Diego County Homes: Sales Momentum

Sales Pendings Median © 2012 rereport.com

Page 2 Page 2

The Real Estate Report

Mortgage Rate Outlook

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30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

The chart above shows the Nation-al monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by HSH.com. The average includes mortgages of all sizes, including conforming, "expanded conform-ing," and jumbo.

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San Diego County — Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales

(3-month moving average — price in $000's)

Ave Med Sales © 2012 rereport.com

Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend Inven

County 335,000$ 440,360$ 1,440 3,389 8,175 170 96.6% -5.6% -1.7% 15.8% 12.4% -16.2%N. County Coast 400,000$ 680,403$ 308 813 2,284 222 96.3% -22.6% 1.3% 7.7% 21.0% -14.0%

Cardiff by the Sea 645,000$ 619,300$ 5 9 34 150 97.1% -11.0% -16.9% 25.0% 12.5% -15.0%Carlsbad 570,000$ 606,048$ 52 117 441 187 96.6% -12.3% -10.4% -3.7% -0.8% 32.8%

Carmel Valley 779,750$ 816,383$ 18 56 190 223 94.7% -17.5% -13.5% -21.7% 21.7% 11.1%Del Mar 2,280,000$ 2,391,900$ 7 30 130 429 95.6% 78.8% 34.2% 40.0% 25.0% 0.0%

Encinitas 840,000$ 1,094,370$ 21 60 220 229 95.4% 1.9% 26.0% 0.0% 50.0% 20.9%Fallbrook 287,500$ 340,888$ 26 102 377 317 97.5% -13.4% -11.2% -39.5% 34.2% 15.6%La Jolla 1,413,180$ 1,448,600$ 14 55 236 388 88.9% 6.7% 0.5% -17.6% 77.4% 7.3%

Oceanside 306,000$ 303,105$ 86 201 729 184 97.4% -8.5% -7.6% 22.9% 21.1% 23.6%Rancho Santa Fe 2,475,000$ 2,793,670$ 15 28 236 416 91.8% 61.8% 47.2% 15.4% -20.0% -2.9%

San Marcos 288,250$ 299,444$ 68 137 467 146 96.5% -20.5% -10.8% 36.0% 21.2% 26.6%Solana Beach 880,000$ 970,833$ 6 12 49 185 94.9% -7.4% -8.1% 50.0% 50.0% 14.0%

Vista 295,000$ 303,323$ 58 143 455 161 97.8% -3.4% -10.7% 81.3% 19.2% 20.1%

North San Diego County Coastal - January 2012

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES % Change from Year BeforePrices Prices

Feb. 3, 2012 -- Expectations for a continuing period of weak economic growth continue to be con-founded by stronger economic data. A flare higher in rates last week -- fostered by that warmer data -- was cut off at the knees by soft-er-than-expected fourth quarter GDP growth and a Federal Reserve who not only moved their expectations of increasing interest rates further down the road, but also increased expectations that more mortgage or bond-buying programs might come in 2012.

While weaker growth may yet emerge, whether from deepening troubles in the Eurozone or some yet-unseen issue, the fact is that the econ-omy is showing signs of increasing expansion, at least for the moment. Certain of the interest rates which mortgages track moved measurably higher on Friday, with the 10-year Treasury fin-ishing the week well above the week's low.

HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages declined by ten basis points (.10%) from last week, sliding to an average 4.18%, a new record low. The FRMI's

15-year companion shed nine basis points (.09%) to finish the weekly survey at an average 3.46%, also a new bottom. Important to home-buyers and low-equity-stake refinancers, FHA-backed 30-year mortgages declined by just three hundredths of a percentage point to 3.84%, while the overall average for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs decreased by seven basis points to crack the 3% mark and end the week at 2.99%. Con-forming 30-year FRMs matched their previous low of 4.01%, but jumbo 30-year FRMs marched into new record low territory with an eleven ba-sis point drop to 4.49%.

We expect to see mortgage rates rise a little next week. The better economic tenor this week (especially the ISM service and employment reports on Friday) pulled money out of bonds and into stocks, as safe-haven funds seek some opportunity for better gains. Figure on a rise of 4-5 basis points, perhaps.

Table Definitions _______________

Median Price The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50%were lower.

Average Price Add all prices and divide by the

number of sales.

SP/LP Sales price to list price ratio or the

price paid for the property divided by the asking price.

DOI Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the

property for sale at the current rate of sales.

Pend Property under contract to sell that

hasn’t closed escrow.

Inven Number of properties actively for

sale as of the last day of the month.

Page 3

Table Definitions _______________

Median Price The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50%were lower.

Average Price Add all prices and divide by the

number of sales.

SP/LP Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property divided

by the asking price.

DOI Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the

property for sale at the current rate of sales.

Pend Property under contract to sell that

hasn’t closed escrow.

Inven Number of properties actively for

sale as of the last day of the month.

Page 3

In December, cancellations were down 17.7% from November, and were down 1.3% year-over-year.

Properties going back to the bank were down 0.4% from November, and were down 8.4% compared to December 2010.

The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed declined by 25% in December compared to December 2010.

The total number of properties scheduled for sale declined by 33.1%, year-over-year. Both of these are very positive signs.

The total number of properties owned by banks dropped by 13.9% year-over-year.

Foreclosure statistics provided by: http://foreclosureradar.com.

Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in San Diego County declined 18.7% in December from the year before, and were down 24% from November.

Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, jumped 14.2% from November, but were down 14.8% year-over-year.

After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements.

Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory.

FORECLOSURE STATISTICS

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San Diego County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change

© 2010 rereport.com

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San Diego County — Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales

(3-month moving average — price in $000's)

Ave Med Sales © 2012 rereport.com

Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend Inven

County 205,000$ 256,570$ 634 1,447 3,546 168 97.4% 1.5% 3.0% -6.1% -16.4% -28.0%N. County Coast 255,000$ 310,882$ 148 314 865 175 97.1% -9.7% -3.9% 13.8% -12.0% -20.7%

Cardiff by the Sea 360,000$ 360,000$ 1 6 24 540 93.5% -17.7% -17.7% -50.0% 0.0% 71.4%Carlsbad 289,950$ 300,299$ 36 63 229 138 98.0% -17.5% -11.6% 125.0% 21.2% 18.0%

Carmel Valley 385,000$ 384,888$ 16 25 91 124 98.7% 1.9% 3.2% 23.1% -10.7% 7.1%Del Mar 372,000$ 499,500$ 5 6 41 210 95.7% -8.7% 15.0% 0.0% -40.0% -16.3%

Encinitas 248,000$ 330,333$ 9 28 91 210 96.0% -20.0% -20.4% 0.0% -9.7% 46.8%La Jolla 520,000$ 581,318$ 11 40 197 428 94.8% -11.6% -0.4% -21.4% 11.1% 4.8%

Oceanside 157,250$ 203,239$ 54 103 341 132 97.1% -14.4% 4.8% -6.9% 1.0% -0.9%Rancho Santa Fe 650,000$ 650,000$ 1 4 15 330 97.9% -1.7% -1.7% 0.0% 200.0% 63.6%

San Marcos 230,000$ 221,617$ 29 50 143 96 97.9% 0.4% -3.5% 20.8% 8.7% 0.0%Solana Beach 512,500$ 513,112$ 8 17 65 180 96.3% -10.1% -10.0% 300.0% 21.4% 41.3%

Vista 153,000$ 150,360$ 5 19 73 324 97.2% -13.1% -18.1% -61.5% -34.5% 19.7%

North San Diego County Coastal - January 2012

CONDOS % Change from Year BeforePrices Prices

The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.

THE REAL ESTATE REPORT N. Coast San Diego County

http://www.profundrealestate.com

ProFund Financial & Real Estate 7777 Fay Avenue, Suite G4 La Jolla, CA 92037

Ryan Mathys & Tracie Kersten

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This Real Estate Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com. Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given.

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San Diego County: Single-family HomesSales Price/Listing Price Ratio

© 2012 rereport.com

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San Diego County Homes - Sales, Pending & Days of Inventory(3-month moving average)

© 2012 rereport.com