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© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. This presentation is provided for the recipient only and cannot be reproduced or shared without Fair Isaac Corporation’s express consent. Lessons Learned using Alternative Data A Path to Inclusion for Over 1 Billion Sally Taylor-Shoff Scores Vice President, FICO

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Page 1: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. This presentation is provided for the recipient only and cannot be reproduced or shared without Fair Isaac Corporation’s express consent.

Lessons Learned using Alternative Data

A Path to Inclusion for Over 1 Billion

Sally Taylor-ShoffScores Vice President, FICO

Page 2: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 2© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 2

The Challenge:

Facilitate credit access for the more than 3 billion consumers globally that are

financially excluded.

Page 3: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 3

The Opportunity

• Source: http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/globalfindex

• http://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3681/An_emerging_middle_class.html

• FICO CRO APAC Survey: http://www.fico.com/en/newsroom/fico-survey-77-percent-of-apac-banks-say-inability-to-rate-the-risk-of-unbanked-consumers-constrains-their-business-growth-06-21-2017

• Accenture & Care International

3 billion consumer are unscorable today.

billion more consumers will enter the middle class by 2030.3

“Banks could generate about $380 billion in annual revenues targeting unbanked consumers in emerging markets.”380

% of APAC banks have customer growth targets of 20% or more for 2017

41 39 % of respondents’ credit assessment process is still mostly manual

Page 4: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 4

FICO® Scores Global Coverage and Experience + Alternative Data Projects

As of 4/2/18

Page 5: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 5© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 5

Challenge: How do you navigate the proliferation of

alternative data options?

Page 6: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 6

New Paradigm of Alternative Data

Consumer Reporting

Agency

Monetized Consumer Data

Sources

Consumer Contributed

Data

Page 7: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 7

Hierarchy of Data in Credit Risk Prediction

Financial Account Data

Bill Payment Data

Non-financial Data

1 2 3

Page 8: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 8

FICO® Score for India

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Cum

. % B

ads

Cum. % Goods

Trade-Off Curve: Credit Card New Accounts 2013-15

FICO® Score India Other National CB Score Random

Score K-S

FICO® Score 28.34

Other National CB Score 18.59

Page 9: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 9

FICO’s Six Point Data Test

6 Point Test

Regulatory

Depth & Breadth

Additive Value

Accuracy

Predictiveness

Scope &Consistency

Page 10: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 10

FICO ® Score X Data for India Rank Orders Risk

10.92%

8.15%

5.51%

3.86%

1.53%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

1-130 131-140 141-151 152-164 165-299

Bad

Rat

e

Score Range

Bad Rate by Score Quintile *

*Personal Loan Portfolio April – Sep 2016

Page 11: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 11© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 11

Challenge: How do you overcome data limitations?

Page 12: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 12

FICO® Score XD

Public Record and Property Data

Most inclusive of datasets studied with high coverage rates

Telco and Utility Data

Payment information has similar characteristics to traditional credit file data

Page 13: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 13

The Key Segments of the Unscorable Population Universe

25mNo traditional credit file on

record

New to credit14%

Derogatory information in file

59%

Voluntary inactive27%

28mSparse or inactive

credit files

Page 14: Sally Taylor-Shoff, FICO · FICO®Score for India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cum. % Bads Cum. % Goods Trade -Off Curve:

© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 14© 2018 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. This presentation is provided for the recipient only and cannot be reproduced or shared without Fair Isaac Corporation’s express consent.

A path for over 1 billion to financial empowerment

Thank youSally Taylor-Shoff