sailing throug h rough seas: a cambodia investor’s perspective

31
Asia Economic Forum April 7, 2009 confidential Sailing Through Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

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Sailing Throug h Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective. Asia Economic Forum April 7, 2009. confidential. Global Investment Backdrop. Risk Aversion Darwinism / Upheaval Worst or best of times Opportunities in Crisis. 2. Leopard Capital, LP. confidential. The World Economy. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

Asia Economic Forum April 7, 2009

confidential

Sailing Through Rough Seas:

A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

Page 2: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Global Investment Backdrop

2Leopard Capital, LP

• Risk Aversion

• Darwinism / Upheaval

• Worst or best of times

• Opportunities in Crisis

Page 3: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

The World Economy

3

• Building on fire

• Most developed – top floors

• Least developed – bottom floors

Leopard Capital, LP

Page 4: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Asia’s Situation

4Leopard Capital, LP

Cambodia Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia South Korea Japan Singapore0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1,900 2,600 3,200 3,600

8,000

14,500

25,000

33,500

49,900

GDP per capita - PPP basis (USD) 2007 (source: CIA)

Page 5: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Coping with the Credit Crunch

5

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%180%Domestic Credit to GDP (2007) Source: ADB

Korea Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Cambodia

Leopard Capital, LP

Page 6: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

The Situation

6

Catch-up opportunity for LDCs – to take bigger slice of smaller pie• Improve internal policies• Reduce inefficiencies, barriers, and unofficial costs• Bypass export sectors that are overinvested

Leopard Capital, LP

Page 7: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Investment Backdrop

7Leopard Capital, LP

Next Cycle’s Winners:• Unused Resources vs. Population size• .• .• .• .

Page 8: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Cambodia’s Commodities Endowment

8Leopard Capital, LP

• Crops: Rice, Cassava, Corn, Soybeans, Sugar• Trees: Rubber, Palm, Fruit, Teak, Acacia, Cashew• Energy: Oil, Gas, Coal• Mining: Gold, Bauxite, Nickel, Zinc, Copper, Lead, Iron• Water: Irrigation, Hydropower• Meat potential• Aquaculture potential

Page 9: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Investment Backdrop

9Leopard Capital, LP

Cambodia Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Philippines Japan South Korea0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Population Density

ADB Population density per km2

Page 10: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Investment Backdrop

10Leopard Capital, LP

Next Cycle’s Winners:• Unused resources vs. Population size• Sustainable energy policy• .• .• .

Page 11: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Investment Backdrop

11Leopard Capital, LP

Next Cycle’s Winners:• Unused resources vs. Population size• Sustainable energy policy• .• .• .

Page 12: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Electrification

12Leopard Capital, LP

Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Japan Thailand0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

77

487

653

1,826

1,9782,048

Power usage per capita (kwh) 2007 (source: ADB)

Page 13: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Investment Backdrop

13Leopard Capital, LP

Next Cycle’s Winners:• Significant resources vs. Population size• Sustainable energy policy• Favorable Demographics• .

Page 14: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Differing Challenges Ahead

14

Population Age Pyramid Comparison

Cambodia: Investing in Modernization

Page 15: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Investment Backdrop

15Leopard Capital, LP

Next Cycle’s Winners:• Significant resources vs. Population size• Sustainable energy policy• Favorable Demographics• Political and Policy Stability

Page 16: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Assessing Risks Now

16

India

Thail

and

Malaysi

a

Indon

esia

Philip

pines

Cambo

diaChin

a

Vietna

m012345678

2007-20082008-2009

2007 and 2008 (Source: Political & Economic Risk Consultancy Ltd.)

Cambodia: Investing in Modernization

Page 17: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Investment Backdrop

17Leopard Capital, LP

Next Cycle’s Winners:• Significant resources vs. Population size• Sustainable energy policy• Favorable Demographics• Political and Policy Stability• Sufficient Infrastructure

Page 18: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Cambodia’s Improving Infrastructure

• Sea Port upgraded, new ports coming

• International Airports (3)

• Roads and bridges

• Railroads

• Electricity

• Wireless Network

• Internet fiber backbone

18Leopard Capital, LP

Page 19: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Investment Backdrop

19Leopard Capital, LP

Next Cycle’s Winners:• Significant resources vs. Population size• Sustainable energy policy• Favorable Demographics• Political and Policy Stability• Sufficient Infrastructure• Pro-investment policies and low taxes

Page 20: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Tax Comparison

20Leopard Capital, LP

Cambodia Singapore Philippines Malaysia South Korea Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Japan0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

20 20

2527 27.4 28

30 30

40.7

Corporate tax rate (% of GDP) 2006 (source: ADB)

Page 21: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Countercyclical Investment Opportunities

21Leopard Capital, LP

• Tourism Development (beyond Siem Reap)• .• .• .• .

Page 22: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Tourism Development Opportunity

22Leopard Capital, LP

Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Singapore Thailand Malaysia0

5

10

15

20

25

2.13.1

4.2

5.5

10.3

14.5

21

Tourist arrivals (mn) 2007 (sources: various)

Page 23: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Countercyclical Investment Opportunities

23Leopard Capital, LP

• Tourism Development (beyond Siem Reap)• Rural Banking• .• .• .

Page 24: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

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Banking Opportunity

24

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%180%Bank loans to GDP (2007) Source: ADB

Korea Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Cambodia

Leopard Capital, LP

Page 25: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Countercyclical Investment Opportunities

25Leopard Capital, LP

• Tourism Development (beyond Siem Reap)• Rural Banking• Wireless Communications for the poor• .• .

Page 26: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Communications Opportunity

26Leopard Capital, LP

Cambodia Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Thailand Japan South Korea Malaysia Singapore0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

13

3033

56

7176

85 86

116

Mobile phone penetration (%) 2007 (source: Asia Mobile Communications & Mobile Data report)

Page 27: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Countercyclical Investment Opportunities

27Leopard Capital, LP

• Tourism Development (beyond Siem Reap)• Rural Banking• Wireless Communications for the poor• “Off-grid” Renewable Power• .

Page 28: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Electrification Opportunity

28Leopard Capital, LP

Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Japan Thailand0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

77

487

653

1,826

1,9782,048

Power usage per capita (kwh) 2007 (source: ADB)

Page 29: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Countercyclical Investment Opportunities

29Leopard Capital, LP

• Tourism Development (beyond Siem Reap)• Rural Banking• Wireless Communications for the poor• “Off-grid” Renewable Power• Affordable Housing

Page 30: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Property Development Opportunity

30Leopard Capital, LP

Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Japan South Korea Singapore0

20

40

60

80

100

120

17.8

27.432.9

43.1

63.466

80.8

100

Urban population (% total pop.) (source: ADB)

Page 31: Sailing Throug h  Rough Seas: A Cambodia Investor’s Perspective

confidential

Opportunity for Cambodia

31

• Retool the Economy• Create Tourism Paradise• Add Value to Natural Resources• Champion emerging global themes:

• Renewable / Sustainable• Safe / Organic • Fair / Equitable

• Import Substitution

Leopard Capital, LP