saf cluster meeting, 13-14 october 2009, copenhagen ssa 13 : thau lagoon “managing the...
Post on 20-Jan-2016
213 views
TRANSCRIPT
SAF Cluster Meeting, 13-14 October 2009, Copenhagen
SSA 13 : Thau Lagoon
“Managing the microbiological contamination of the
Thau Lagoon”
Science and Policy Integration for COastal System Assessment
José A. Pérez Agúndez, Annie Fiandrino, Johanna Béganton, Rémi Mongruel , Thierry Laugier, Valérie Derolez, Ludovic Cesmat, Ophélie Serais
Hélène Rey-Valette, Sébastien Roussel,François Valette
Gilles Brocard
(NB: GEYSER, in charge of mediation with stakeholders, has retired from SPICOSA)(NB: GEYSER, in charge of mediation with stakeholders, has retired from SPICOSA)
SAF cluster meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessaloniki
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
Introduction : policy issue, scenarios, socio-economic dimensions and structure of the system to be modelled
Building the model with Extend (modular use, connections)
Watersheds and the Water treatment system
Microbiological contamination: monitoring and law enforcement
Economic assessment Conclusion : state of work ; interactions with stakeholders
Content
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
A coastal zone close to thecities of Montpellier and Sète
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The detailed structure of the Thau watershed
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
An overview of the policy issue
The general problem : because of rapid local demographic growth and also the importance of tourism, the watersheds of the Thau lagoon are subject to pollution. In particular, events of microbiological contamination may affect the lagoon, with direct consequences on human activities in the Lagoon and also feedbacks to the overall development pattern of the region.
The microbiological contamination raises four basic questions:1) What are the impacts of microbiological contamination on shellfish farming and other human activities in the lagoon ?2) What are the main contamination sources ?3) What is the efficiency of the current water treatment system as regards microbiological contamination ?4) Which management options would reduce the impacts of MC in a way which would be coherent with the more global local policy objectives ?
Another research project, OMEGATHAU (to be completed by the end of 2010), which has been conducted jointly with the local public organisation in charge of Thau Lagoon water management (SMBT), has addressed the 2 first questions. Our approach for the SPICOSA SSA work in the Thau Lagoon is to rely on OMEGATHAU results in order to explore questions 3 and 4.
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
A shared diagnosis
SCOT
The territorialmanagement plan,whose perimeter iscoherent with theone defined forthe water policy
SAGEThe local water management plan,which defines the water policyfor the Lagoon and its watersheds
Policy context : two corresponding management plans
Coherence of- perimeters- diagnosis- objectives
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The current policy debate and theexpectations from the SPICOSA experiment
The local policy framework, which has been set up during the preparation of the Territorial Management Plan (SCoT) gives the general objectives:- economic development, including tourism and thermal industry- environment preservation, including water quality and ecosystems protection- maintaining of the cultural patrimony, including traditional activities (shellfish farming, professional fisheries in the lagoon, recreational activities, etc.)NB: of course, these objectives generate internal conflicts The local water management plan (SAGE) defines several specific objectives related to the environment policy. One specific objective is the reduction of the water microbiological contamination. The current political debate focuses the ways of translating these objectives into operational management options.
In this context, the main purpose of our SPICOSA experiment is twofold:- to assess the efficiency and the costs of new water treatment systems
Cost-effectiveness analysis (1: restricted)- to estimate the impacts of various operational management options on the traditional activities and the local economy
Multi-criteria analysis (2: extended)
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The definition of scenarios and the assessment of the resulting states of the system will contribute to the local political debate in three different ways.
Designing the Water Policy the objective of the MC reduction has to be translated into operational objectives, in particular as regards the sanitary classification of the Lagoon (A or B) and the occurrence of commercial bans for the shellfish farming industry, according to the trends of the system (forcings)
definition of scenarios = trends, operational objectives, technical options
Searching for the more efficient water treatment systemsthe assessment of possible new water treatment systems (technical options), as regards their costs and their ability to reach one particular operational objectives
costs/effectiveness analysis of simple management options
Assessing the impacts of one operational policy objectives- on the regional economy, through the financial analysis of impacted sectors and the induced effects on the other industries and activities- on the broader development concerns (as set up by the SCOT), considering eventually additional management options for traditional activities
selection of indicatorsmulti-criteria analysis of more complex management options
Scenarios definition and system assessment
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
Economic dimension 1: cost-effectiveness analysis of the water treatment systems, according to different technical options.
Approach = investment and running costs of water treatment settlements, considering local public budget constraints
Economic dimension 2: economic dynamics in the shellfish farming industry.
Approach = financial analysis and the vulnerability of businesses to the closures of the shellfish farming area (period during which sales are forbiden)
Additional management options to be tested in complex scenarios = re-allocation of the production capacity of the farms which stop their activity
Economic dimension 3: a regional economy matrix will be used so as to provide macro-economic drivers and indicators at the site scale.
Approach = incorporating direct (pressure and impacts) and indirect (induced effects) relationships between the environment and the macro-economic dynamics of the Thau Lagoon territory (economic feedback loops)
The economic dimensions
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The system and its components
Upstream Uses
Water treatment
Water qualityin the Lagoon
Microbiologicalcontamination
Governance system
Indicators : expectedstate of the system
- Short term :closures- Long term :classification
Recreative uses & amenitiesEcosystem preservation ?Economic developmentTraditional activities
Ecosystem status
Managingthemicrobiologicalcontamination oftheThau Lagoon
Public investmentsRules: sanitary normsAccess regulation ?Settlement: space allocationEconomic incentives (taxes)
Drivers
Pressures
Responses
State
Impacts
Multi-objectiveslocal policiesunderpublic budget constraint
Downstream Uses
Boundaries of the systemfor the formulation step and the defi nition of scenarios
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The structure of the Extend Model
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The watershed ecological modules
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
1. Every day permanent (and/or seasonal) populations & activities produce E.coli pollutions2. These E.coli loads can be reduced (or not) by specific treatments3. These reduced (or not) E.coli loads discharge into the lagoon via local streams
The watershed ecological modules
What we need to achieve this goal in extend model ?
To identify Main types of E.coli source on watershed
To formulate (in an analytic way) E.coli daily load for each type of source
First results of OMEGA-THAU project Investigations to :1. Identify main E.coli sources (on watershed
& onto the lagoon)
2. Estimate for each source (on watershed) E.coli daily load
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
In Extend model (in order to be as well generic as possible) we distinguish these 3 steps 3 different modules
E.coli pollutions production blocks
E.coli pollutions treatment blocks
E.coli pollutions transfer blocks
The watershed ecological modules
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
E.coli pollutions production blocks
living in houses connected to WWTP SRC1
living in houses with their own septic tanks SRC2
Seasonal population living in campings with their own WWT systems SRC3
For each town on watershed
Nb. of Perm. Inh.Nb. of tourists
Parameters read in Database
% of pop. connected to WWTPNb. of house with ind. WWT System
Nb. of tourists in campings during summer
Farming (poultry, horse,…) SRC4 Nb. of farms & Nb. of animals in each farm
Permanent population /seasonal population.
Dysfunctioning of sewage network system SRC6
… During rainfall eventsStorm sewers SRC5
For each type of SRC
1 Eq. Inh = 5,7x10 10 E.coli/d.
State variable saved in Database
Daily Produced E.coli load (Cell/d)
.
The watershed modules
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
E.coli pollutions treatment blocks
SRC1 Daily E.coli load produced by pop. connected to WWTP
For each SRC on watershed
Parameters and state variables read in
Database
Parameters for treatment method
Empirical values forabatement in each WWTP depends on :
.
State variable saved in Database
Daily Produced E.coli loadDaily Produced E.coli load
E.coli Abatement techniques (or not)
Daily Treated E.coli load </=
Daily Produced E.coli load
For instance
• Season (treatment is more efficient in summer)
• Meteorological condition (by-pass during rainfall events)
The watershed modules
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
E.coli pollutions transfer blocks
For each SRC on watershed
Parameters and state variables read in
Database
Abatement in local stream depends on :
.State variable saved
in Database
Daily Treated E.coli loadDaily Treated E.coli load
E.coli Abatement due to natural processes during transfer in the local stream (from point source to the lagoon)
Daily Transferred E.coli load </=
Daily Treated E.coli load
• Distance from point source to the lagoon
• Season (T90 in stream is higher in summer)
• Meteorological condition (speed of stream higher during rainfall event)
The watershed modules
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
E.coli pollutions transfer blocks
In Watershed Database Number of tables (containing fields associated
to Daily Produced,Treated and Transferred E.coli load)
= numbers of SRC on the watershed
Custom blockRe-arrange daily E.coli load & create one Dynamic_Database per outlet that contains
Total Daily E.coli load (sum of all E.coli load of all SRC on this watershed) and each component of this total load
The watershed modules
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
There are infinite technical ways for reaching the objectives
fixed by stakeholders
creating new water treatment structures
modifying existing structures (size, technology)
improving the collection nets
management of punctual treatment under-capacity
(storms)
But the aim of the model is to explore
prospective scenarios, not to optimize a
public policy
The water treatment module
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
v
The cost – efficient analysis
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The water treatment module, associated with the hydrologic component, is integrated in the model following two complementary steps
1st → Restrictive model : comparative assessment of water treatment options (several runs)
Selection of best possibilities considering general constraints : total budget (operational and investment costs), land
availability, opportunity costs, etc. Comparative assessment of water treatment options Hierarchical classification of each option by considering
costs and abatement efficiency
2nd → Global model: integration of the selected water treatment options in the prospective model
Strategic planning at long run in terms of investments Estimation on global impacts in the model depending of
selected scenarios
Operational use of the water treatment module by Extend
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
INTO THE LAGOON
9 monitoring stationsare sampling every first Monday of the month
National monitoring network (REMI) controls
microbiological quality of oysters and mussels to determine category of
shellfish production areas.
20 local streams on the watershed
?j=1
20
What is the impact of daily E.coli load discharges by each local
stream on lagoon water quality ?
[E.coli] i = Fctn ( Daily E.coli load,
Meteorological conditions)
At each time step, at each REMI station (i = 1,9)
First step : Simulate impact of E.coli discharge into the lagoon
If E.coli concentration in shellfish passes a legal level, administration can
decide to temporarily forbid shellfish harvesting
Second step : Simulate surveillance procedure and regulation rules
Lagoon contamination module
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
Lagoon contamination simulation using 3D model
First step : Simulate impact of E.coli load discharge into the lagoon by each local streamsusing results of 3D-hydrodynamics model coupled to a biological module that simulate transport, dispersion, mortality of E.coli cells in water lagoon
100 m x 100 m grid10 level along vertical direction
Calibration and validation of this 3D model achieve in the framework of OMEGA-THAU project
Vent faible de secteur S-SE
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
Sensitivity studies with 3D- model shown
Lagoon contamination simulation using 3D model
1) [E.coli] in water can be summed
[E.coli]c1 + [E.coli]c1 = [E.coli]c1 load 1 load 2 load 1 & 2
Load 1
Load 2
2) High impact of wind conditions on [E.coli] in water
No wind
Wind conditions O-NO, 36 km/h
Daily E.coli load = 13 Log
5 characteristics wind conditions are retained : 315N, 330N, 90N, 150N / 10m/s, No wind)
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
Sensitivity studies with 3D- model shown
Lagoon contamination simulation using 3D model
3) High impact of temporal distribution of stream flow on [E.coli] in water
E.coli discharge during dry weather
Daily E.coli load = Stream flow x [E.coli]stream
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Pal
las
stre
am f
low
(m
3/s
)
hours
[E.coli] x Stream Flow = [E.coli] x StreamHigh x Low Low x High
E.coli discharge during rainfall eventDaily E.coli load = 13 Log
Wind conditions N-NO, 36 km/h
2 characteristics meteorological conditions are retained :dry period, rainfall event : 70 mm in one day
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
Lagoon contamination module
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The governance module : regulation of sanitary risks due to the microbiologic water charge
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The governance module : monitoring and regulation
MONITORING
J = 1er Monday of the month
9 sampling (REMI)
If all values < Threshold (9/9)
If 1 value > Threshold (1/9)
ALERTLevel 1
MONITORING J+2
J = J+ 2
9 sampling (REMI)
Risk of contamination(rainfall, incident, etc..) ?
If all values < Threshold (9/9)
If 1 value > Threshold (1/9)
Alert Level 2
MONITORING
J = every monday
9 sampling (REMI)
If 1 value > Threshold (1/9)
All values (9/9), Must have 2 values
< threshold (9/9)
AlertMONITORING J+1
9 sampling (REMI)
J = J détection du risque
ALERTLevel 0
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The Shellfish farming module (1/3)
- Figuring the shellfish farming sector
Thau lagoon is the principal shellfish farming production area of the French
Mediterranean
There are globally 540 companies that represent locally a source of direct
employment for 2,000 workers (fulltime equivalent estimates). The global
production can be estimated slightly higher than 20,000 tons by year and
distributed into 60% of oysters and 40% of mussels
Companies are segmented into three categories depending on their production
capacity. This capacity is directly linked to the number of concessions they own:
- Small companies (owning until 4 tables)
- Medium companies (owning 4-8 tables)
- Big companies (owning more than 8 tables)
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The Shellfish farming module (2/3)
- Rationale of the approach
. No bioeconomic model (such as in SSA10)
. Each commercial ban potential economic losses
. Linking the production capacity by type of company, their representative market
distribution structure and the selling prices practiced, it is possible to estimate
the global revenue obtained by class of company in a “normal” year.
. A normal year can be considered as an annual economic period with no
sanitary closure events. Consequently, it translates the maximum revenue which
can be obtained by shellfish companies in the absence of sanitary events.
Growth : dWij/dt = F° (Wij, T, Phyto, Gij) …Population : dNij/dt = - k x Nij - Hrij ± N( purchases/sales to other farmers)Production : dPij/dt = Hij x Wij
W
t
Cohort 13
Cohort 12
Cohort 11
Cohort 23Cohort 22
Cohort 21
OysterWeigh
Cohort 33
Cohort 32
Cohort 31
0 1 32
Biomass dynamic model (structured by cohorts and sub-cohorts)
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The Shellfish farming module (3/3)
- Expected output of the shellfish farming module
. The shellfish farming box of the model evaluates the economic
impacts directly supported by companies due to microbiological water
overcharge
. Estimation of the economic losses associated to commercial bans
due to microbiologic peaks
. Effects at short-run: determined by intra-annual economic
dynamics and sanitary rules in the governance box
. Effects at mid and long-un: image impacts, economic
sensibility of companies
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
SOL et ROUTES LOCAUX et CONSTRUCTIONS etc…
Noms PS. NON CONST.
PS.CONSTR AMNGT.SOL RES.ROUTES AMNGT.RTES HABIT CONC HABIT LOT. P.HAB.ISOL
Unités 100HA 100HA 100HA 100KM 100KM 100LGT 100LGT 100LGT
1Us.SOL.CONSTR. 100HA 1.00 1.00 -0.010 -0.020 -0.060
2Us.SOL NON CONSTR. 100HA 1.00 -1.00 -0.46 -0.46 0.00 0.00
3HAB.CONC. LOGT 100.00 0.00
4HAB.LOTISST. LOGT 100.00
5HAB.DISPERS. LOGT 0.00 100.00
6RESID.SEC LOGT 0.00 0.00
7SEJ.TOUR. KJTRS 0.00 0.00
8LOC.PROF. 1000M2 0.00 0.00
9LOC.TECH. 1000M2 0.00 0.00
10Us.MACH.AGR. KHUSM -1.20 -2.00 -0.55 -0.55 0.00 0.00
11Us.RES.ROUTES 100KM 0.00 1.00 1.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01
12RES.EAU.POT. 100KM
13RES.EAU.NON POT. 100KM
14RES.COL.EAU.US 100KM
etc
The macro-economic module
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
The tourism industry
There are two ways to integrate the tourism industry in the model
(this question is actually under discusion)
- Endogenously (feed back): the site attractiveness generates a tourism
demand
. The objective is to calibrate a function comparing data series of tourism
frequentation and an indicator of water quality (sanitary closures as a
proxy)
. Problem : in water quality other environmental components are included.
Separability question
- Exogenously : if problems to assess an attractiveness function, the
dynamics of the sector can be forced in the scenarios box
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
Conclusion: state of work
The modeling activities are going on
The model is not complete at the whole but some associated blocks are
starting to run
Some modules of the model need to be quickly developed
High efforts have been made in restructuring the model, programming
and integrating
We have some incertitude about additional information required for some
processes but globally the structure of the model seems enough robust
Interaction with local stakeholders will be assured by our Spicosa
colleagues participating to the expertise requirements of “Scot” and “Sage”
SAF Cluster Meeting, 20-21 October 2009, Thessalonique
Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention