Sacred & SecularReligion and Politics Worldwide

Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart

StructureI. Theories of secularization

Religiosity & existential security

II. Research designIII. Evidence

Comparisons by type of society Failure of religious market theory in post-Communist

nations Demographic patterns & religiosity

IV. Conclusions Advanced industrial societies have become steadily more

secular during the last 50 years Yet the world as a whole has more people with traditional

religious beliefs than ever before

Book Contents List of Tables and Figures

Preface and Acknowledgments

PART I: UNDERSTANDING SECULARIZATION

1. The Debate About Secularization and Religion

2. Measuring Secularization

3. Comparing Secularization Worldwide

PART II: CASE STUDIES OF RELIGION AND POLITICS

4. The Puzzle of Religiosity in the United States and Western Europe

5. Religion and Politics in the Muslim World

6. A Religious Revival in Post-Communist Europe?

PART III: THE CONSEQUENCES OF SECULARIZATION

7. Religion, the Protestant Ethic, and Moral Values

8. Religious Organizations and Social Capital

9. Religious Parties and Electoral Behavior

CONCLUSIONS

10. Secularization and its Consequences

Select Bibliography

I:Theories of secularization

Max Weber – Enlightenment Rationality

The loss of faith

Emile Durkheim - Functionalism

The loss of purpose

Stark and Finke - Religious market theory

“After nearly three centuries of utterly failed prophesies and misrepresentations of both present and past, it seems time to carry the secularization doctrine to the graveyard of failed theories, and there to whisper ‘requiescat in pace’” Stark and Finke. 2000. Acts of Faith.

Public ‘demand’ for religion is constant Supply-side competition among clergy energizes religiosity Religious participation explained by religious pluralism and freedom of religion

Theory of secularization & security

A#1Societies differ in

levels of basic human

security

A#2Societies

differ in theirpredominant

religious culture

Religious values

EgImportance of religion

Importance of God ReligiousParticipation

EgAttend religious servicesDaily prayer or meditation

Religious Political Activism

Eg Member religious groups

Support religious party

Religious beliefs

EgWithin each religion

Moral attitudes

Demographic trends

H1

H2

H3

H4

H5

II. Research design?

World Values Survey 1981-2001

Included in the WVS

Included (76)Not yet included (112)

Classification of societiesCatholic

(28)

Protestant

(20)

Orthodox

(12)

Muslim

(13)

Eastern

(6)

Post

industrial

Eg Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Italy

Eg Australia, Britain, Finland, Germany, US

Industrial Eg Argentina, Croatia, Mexico, Poland

Eg Estonia, Latvia

Eg Belarus, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania

Eg Turkey, Bosnia-Herzegovina

Eg South Korea, Taiwan

Agrarian Eg Dominican Rep, El Salvador, Peru

Eg South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda

Eg Armenia, Moldova

Eg Algeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria

Eg China, India, Viet Nam

Sources:Type of predominant religion: CIA World Factbook; Type of society: HDI UNDP

Measures

INDIVIDUAL RELIGIOUS PARTICIPATION

Apart from weddings, funerals and christenings, how often do you attend religious services?

How often do you pray to God outside of religious services?

COLLECTIVE RELIGIOUS PARTICIPATION

Do you belong to any religious or church organizations?

Do you do any unpaid voluntary work for religious or church organizations?

Do you spend time with people at your church, mosque or synagogue?

RELIGIOUS VALUES

Irrespective of whether you go to church or not, would you say you are a religious person?

Do you belong to a religious denomination?

Do you get comfort and strength from religion?

How important is God in your life?

How important is religion in your life?

RELIGIOUS BELIEFS

Do you believe in heaven?

Do you believe in hell?

Do you believe in life after death?

Do you believe people have a soul?

III: Evidence

Measures of religious participation

Frequency of prayer

7654321

Fre

quen

cy o

f rel

igio

us p

artic

ipat

ion

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Religious culture

Other

Eastern

Muslim

Orthodox

Protestant

Roman catholic

Rsq = 0.7904

Zim

Yug

Viet

Ven

US

GB

Ukr

Uga

Sp

SAfr

Slovk

Rus

Por

Pol

Phil

Neth

Mex

Lux

LithJor

Jap

Ita

Ire

Iran

IceHung

Greece

Ger

Fr

FinEst

Egy

DenCzech

Cro

ChilCan

BulBela

Bng

AusArg

2333344455556

778891010111111

1313141415

17171818

202020202122

2425

2627272828

303131

3537373738

4243444444

464647

4950

5358

6060

6565

7377

7983

8990

0 20 40 60 80 100

ChinaRussia Iceland

DenmarkJapan

EstoniaViet Nam

FinlandSwedenNorwayBelarus

LatviaAzerbaijan

BulgariaArmenia

YugoslaviaCzech Rep

FranceGeorgiaUkraine

Moldova Macedonia

TaiwanHungaryUruguayGreeceBritain

LithuaniaNew Zealand

GermanyAlbania

Korea, Rep Australia

LuxembourgSwitzerland

NetherlandsSloveniaRomania

AustriaBelgiumCroatia

ArgentinaIran

CanadaChile

SpainVenezuela

Bosnia &Brazil

TurkeySlovakia

ItalyPortugal

EgyptPeru

JordanUnited States

DominicanColombiaMorocco

AlgeriaIndia

MexicoSouth AfricaEl Salvador

PolandBangladesh

IndonesiaPhilippinesZimbabwe

IrelandUganda

MaltaNigeria

Tanzania

Note: Religious participation: Q185 “Apart from weddings, funerals and christenings, about how often do you attend religious services these days? More than once a week, once a week, once a month, only on special hold days, once a year, less often, never or practically never.” The proportion who attended ‘Once a week or more.’Source: World Values Survey (pooled surveys, 1981-2001)

Religiosity by type of society

44

52

64

25

34 34

20

26

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Attend religious service atleast weekly (%)

Pray daily (%) Religion ‘very important’(%)

Agrarian Industrial Postindustrial

Religiosity & Development Religious

participation Frequency of prayer

Nations

SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT R Sig R Sig N. Human Development Index 1998 (UNDP 2001) -.521 *** -.506 *** 73 GINI coefficient for income inequality, latest year (WDI 2002)

.426 ** .530 ** 59

Logged per capita GDP (in $US PPP), 2000 (WDI 2002) -.469 *** -.512 *** 67 % Urban population, as % of total, 2000 (WDI 2002) -.451 ** -.490 ** 65 % Rural population, as % of total, 2000 (WDI 2002) .452 ** .493 ** 65 Agricultural production (as % of GDP), 1997 (UNDP 2001)

.270 * 57

EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATIONS % Adult illiteracy rate, 1998 (UNDP 2000) .406 ** .522 ** 73 Education (Gross enrollment ratio) 1998 -.487 *** -.435 *** 73 Access to mass communications -.533 *** -.468 *** 59 HEALTH CARE AIDS cases (per 100,000 people), 1997 . 403 *** .375 *** 67 Infant mortality rate, under 12 months per 1000 live births 2000 (WDI 2002)

.600 *** 562 *** 62

Child mortality rate, under-5 years, per 1000 live births 2000 (WDI 2002)

.604 *** .608 *** 64

Access to an improved water source (% pop) (WDI 2002)

-.481 ** -.507 * 43

Immunization (against measles, % of children under 12 months) (WDI 2002)

-.583 ** -.455 ** 64

Doctors (per 100,000 people), 1993 (UNDP 2001) -.582 *** .708 *** 66 DEMOGRAPHICS Population growth (annual %) (WDI 2002) .548 *** .742 *** 65 Life expectancy at birth, total years, 2000 (WDI 2002) -.535 *** -.454 *** 64 Population ages 0-14 (% of total) (WDI 2002) .607 *** .722 *** 64 Population ages 65 and above (% of total) (WDI 2002) -.557 *** -.743 *** 64

Trends in belief in God 1947-2001Ref Gallup polls & WVS

Nation 1947 1968 1975 1981 1990 1995 2001 Change b. Sig. (P)

Sweden 80 60 52 38 48 46 -33.6

-.675 .009

Netherlands 80 79 64 61 58 -22.0

-.463 .020

Australia 95 80 79 75 75 -19.9

-.379 .007

Norway 84 73 68 58 65 -18.9

-.473 .018

Denmark 80 53 59 62 -17.9

-.387 .023

Britain 77 76 73 72 61 -16.5

-.461 .021

Greece 96 84 -12.3

-.364 -

West Germany 81 72 68 63 71 69 -12.0

-.305 .169

Belgium 78 76 65 67 -11.2

-.487 .145

Finland 83 83 61 73 72 -10.8

-.296 .167

France 66 73 72 59 57 56 -10.1

-.263 .162

Canada 95 89 91 85 88 -7.2

-.387 .075

Switzerland 84 77 77 -7.2

-.277 .111

India 98 93 94 -4.0

-.231 .275

Japan 38 39 37 44 35 -3.0

-.016 .935

Austria 85 78 83 -1.9

-.097 .700

Italy 88 82 82 88 -0.1

.039 .873

United States 94 98 94 96 93 94 94 0.4 -.027 .533

Brazil 96 98 99 3.0

.056 .152

ALL 10 1947-2001 85 72 -13.5

-.315 .003

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

Belgium Den France GB

Germany Greece Ire Italy

Lux Neth NI Portugal

Spain

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

1970 1980 1990

year

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

Trends in European church attendance, 1970-2000Source: Eurobarometer annual surveys

Religious participation by cohort

Cohort of birth

1977-19841967-19761957-19661947-19561937-19461927-19361917-1926

Me

an

fre

qu

en

cy o

f a

tte

nd

ing

re

ligio

us

serv

ice

s

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

Type of Society

Postindustrial

Industrial

Agrarian

Postindustrial

Industrial

Agrarian

% Of pop with low income, Mid-1990s (OECD)

1816141210864

Rel

igio

us p

artic

ipat

ion

6

5

4

3

2

1

Religious culture

Orthodox

Protestant

Roman catholic

Rsq = 0.3158

US

GB

Swi

Swe

Nor

Neth

Ita

Ire

Hung

Greece

Ger

Fr

Fin

Den

Can

Belg

Aus

Austl

Religion & economic inequality

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Lowes

t 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Highes

t

Pray daily Religion 'very' important

Religiosity & household income, postindustrial societiesSource: WVS 1981-2001

Annual population growth rate (%), 1975-1997

543210-1

Impo

rtanc

e of

relig

ion

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

Type of Society

Agrarian

Industrial

Postindustrial

Rsq = 0.5882

Zim

Viet

Ven

Uru

US

Uga

Slovk

Rus

PolPeru

NZ

Mol

Malta

SKor

Jor

Jap

ItaIre

Iran

Indonesi

India

Ice

Ger

Geo

Fr

ElSal

Egy

Den

Czech

Cro

China

Chil

Can

Bul

Braz

Belg

Bng

Aze

AusAustl

Arm

Alg

Alb

Religion & demographic trends

(Source: World Bank 2003)

IV: Conclusions

Conclusions

1. Virtually all advanced industrial societies are moving towards more secular orientations.

2. Yet the world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious beliefs than ever before

3. The religion gap becomes increasingly salient on the global agenda, yet the consequences for international conflict remain unclear.

Further details/chapters: www.pippanorris.com

Importance of God

9876543

Re

ligio

us

part

icip

atio

n

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

Religious culture

Eastern

Protestant

Roman catholic

Rsq = 0.7537

US

GB

Sw i

Sw e

Sp

NorNZ

Neth

LuxJap

Ita

Ire

Ice

Ger

Fr

Fin

Den

Can

Belg

Aus

Austl

Religiosity among

postindustrial nations

Failure of market theoryPost-communist societies

Human Development Index 1998

.9.8.7.6

Impo

rtan

ce o

f God

sca

le

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Religious culture

Muslim

Orthodox

Protestant

Roman catholic

Rsq = 0.4264

Ukr

SlovSlovk

Rus

Rom

Pol

Mol

Mac

Lith

Lat

Hung

Geo

EstCzech

Cro

Bul

Bela

Aze

Arm

Alb

Low -- Religious pluralism -- high

.7.6.5.4.3.2.1

Impo

rtan

ce o

f God

sca

le

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

Religious culture

Muslim

Orthodox

Protestant

Roman catholic

Rsq = 0.0133

Ukr

SlovSlovk

Rus

Rom

Pol

Mol

Mac

Lith

Lat

Hung

Geo

EstCzech

Cro

Bul

Bos

Bela

Aze

Arm

Alb