sablefish recruitment off sitka island and mesoscale circulation
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Sablefish recruitment off Sitka Island and Mesoscale Circulation. by A. Smith , K. Shotwell (NOAA), M. Stachura (UW) and E. Di Lorenzo. Preface: Sablefish Early Life History. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Sablefish recruitment off Sitka
Island and Mesoscale Circulation
by A. Smith, K. Shotwell (NOAA), M. Stachura (UW) and E.
Di Lorenzo
Sablefish Recruitment
Preface: Sablefish Early Life
HistoryRecruitment is the abundance of the youngest fish entering a population that can be estimated successfully
(Myers 1998, Maunder and Watters 2003)
Very noisy timeseries
Mean Circulation in the Gulf of Alaska
Sablefish Recruitment
Sitka IslandSSH Mean
Satellite(Niiler et al. 2005)
Alaskan Stream A
laska Current
Sablefish Recruitment
Mean Circulation in the Gulf of Alaska
SSH Mean
Satellite(Niiler et al. 2005)
Sitka Island
Sablefish Recruitment
1998/02/13
Sitka IslandSSH Anomaly
Satellite(AVISO)
strong downwelling events in the high sea level along the
coast
February 1998
Sablefish Recruitment
1998/02/13
Sitka IslandSSH Anomaly
Satellite(AVISO)
strong downwelling events in the high sea level along the
coast
February 1998
stronger mesoscale Anticyclonic Eddies
9
Sablefish Recruitment
1998/03/05
Sitka IslandSSH Anomaly
Satellite(AVISO)
strong downwelling events in the high sea level along the
coast
stronger mesoscale Anticyclonic Eddies
March 1998
10
Sablefish Recruitment
1998/03/05
Sitka IslandSSH Anomaly
Satellite(AVISO)
strong downwelling events in the high sea level along the
coast
stronger mesoscale Anticyclonic Eddies
March 1998
Haida Eddies
Sitka Eddy
11
Sablefish Recruitment
1998/03/05
Sitka IslandSSH Anomaly
Satellite(AVISO)
March 1998
Haida Eddies
Sitka Eddy
Observation: Young sablefish have been found in large anticyclonic eddies in the Gulf of Alaska.Atwood et al. 2010
12
Sablefish Recruitment
1998/03/05
Sitka IslandSSH Anomaly
Satellite(AVISO)
March 1998
Haida Eddies
Sitka Eddy
Hypothesis: Higher sablefish recruit years are linked to years when large anticyclonic eddies are stronger.
Observation: Young sablefish have been found in large anticyclonic eddies in the Gulf of Alaska.Atwood et al. 2010
13
Sablefish Recruitment
1998/03/05
Sitka Island
March 1998
Sitka Eddy
Observation: Young sablefish have been found in large anticyclonic eddies in the Gulf of Alaska.
Hypothesis: Higher sablefish recruit years are linked to years when large anticyclonic eddies are stronger (e.g. Sitka Eddy).
SSH AnomalySatellite
(AVISO)
Atwood et al. 2010
14
Sablefish Recruitment
1998/03/05
Sitka Island
March 1998
Sitka Eddy
Testing the Hypothesis: Use a regional eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast (ROMS) to generate an index of Sitka Eddy strength to use as a diagnostic for predicting sablefish recruitment timeseries
SSH AnomalySatellite
(AVISO)
Sablefish RecruitmentTesting the Hypothesis: Use a regional eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast (ROMS) to generate an index of Sitka Eddy strength to use as a diagnostic for predicting sablefish recruitment timeseries
SSH Anomalies ROMS
Model
QUESTION:How does the model capture eddy events like the winter of 1998?
SSH Anomalies ROMS
Model Jan 1998
ROMS eddy-resolving model hindcast from 1950-2008Di Lorenzo et al. 2005; Combes et al., 2007; 2009;
Feb 1998
Strong downwelling eventhigh sea level anomaly
Strong downwelling eventhigh sea level anomaly
ROMS eddy-resolving model hindcast from 1950-2008Di Lorenzo et al. 2005; Combes et al., 2007; 2009;
Mar 1998
Development of Sitka and Haida Eddies
Development of Sitka and Haida Eddies
ROMS eddy-resolving model hindcast from 1950-2008Di Lorenzo et al. 2005; Combes et al., 2007; 2009;
Apr 1998
Sitka and Haida Eddies
fully developed
Sitka and Haida Eddies
fully developed
ROMS eddy-resolving model hindcast from 1950-2008Di Lorenzo et al. 2005; Combes et al., 2007; 2009;
May 1998
Sitka and Haida Eddies
Sitka and Haida Eddies
ROMS eddy-resolving model hindcast from 1950-2008Di Lorenzo et al. 2005; Combes et al., 2007; 2009;
Jun 1998
Sitka and Haida Eddies
Sitka and Haida Eddies
ROMS eddy-resolving model hindcast from 1950-2008Di Lorenzo et al. 2005; Combes et al., 2007; 2009;
Jul 1998
Sitka and Haida Eddies
Sitka and Haida Eddies
ROMS eddy-resolving model hindcast from 1950-2008Di Lorenzo et al. 2005; Combes et al., 2007; 2009;
Aug 1998
Sitka and Haida Eddies
Sitka and Haida Eddies
ROMS eddy-resolving model hindcast from 1950-2008Di Lorenzo et al. 2005; Combes et al., 2007; 2009;
Development of Sitka and Haida Eddies
Development of Sitka and Haida Eddies
ROMS eddy-resolving model hindcast from 1950-2008Di Lorenzo et al. 2005; Combes et al., 2007; 2009;
WINTER 1998
Sitka Eddy and Haida Eddies form in the WINTER
WINTER 1998
Sitka EddySitka Eddy
Sitka Eddy Index: average winter SSHa in formation region of Sitka Eddy
Correlation MapSitka Eddy Index vs. winter
SSHa
Sitka EddySitka Eddy
Sitka Eddy Index: average winter SSHa in formation region of Sitka Eddy
Correlation MapSitka Eddy Index vs. winter
SSHa
Sitka EddySitka Eddy
Sitka Eddy Index: average winter SSHa in formation region of Sitka Eddy
Sitka Eddy Index
Correlation MapSitka Eddy Index vs. winter
SSHa
Sablefish RecruitmentSitka Eddy Index
Sitka Eddy Index: average winter SSHa in formation region of Sitka Eddy
Sitka EddySitka Eddy
Correlation MapSitka Eddy Index vs. winter
SSHa
Sablefish RecruitmentSitka Eddy Index Correlation Significance
TestR=0.45
Sitka Eddy Index: average winter SSHa in formation region of Sitka Eddy
Sitka EddySitka Eddy
Sablefish RecruitmentSitka Eddy Index Correlation Significance
TestR=0.45
Sablefish recruitment off Sitka
Island and Mesoscale CirculationHypothesis: Higher sablefish recruit years are linked to years when Sitka eddies are stronger.This is an example of using an eddy-resolving model to generate a regional physical index to diagnose and (perhaps) predict recruitment data.