saace confidence index

SAACE MIS Survey July – December 2001

SAACE CONFIDENCE INDEX

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02

Survey period

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

CH

AN

GE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

IND

EX

(L

ine

)

% Change Index


Trend in REAL PRIME INTEREST RATEand Building plans passed

Based on 13 month moving average1983 - 2001

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

83

01

83

09

84

05

85

01

85

09

86

05

87

01

87

09

88

05

89

01

89

09

90

05

91

01

91

09

92

05

93

01

93

09

94

05

95

01

95

09

96

05

97

01

97

09

98

05

99

01

99

09

20

05

20

01

20

02

20

03

Year, Month

13 m

on

th a

vera

ge

(P

ER

CE

NT

AG

E)

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Bui

ldin

g P

lans

pas

sed

Real prime rate BPP % Change


SAACE CONFIDENCE INDEXAccording to size of company

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

> 500 100 - 499 50 - 99 10 - 49 < 10

Employment size

IND

EX

J UN-01 DEC-01


ProfitabilityAccording to size of company

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

> 500 100 - 499 50 - 99 10 - 49 < 10

Employment size

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jun-

95

Jun-

96

Jun-

97

Dec

-97

Jun-

98

Dec

-98

Jun-

99

Dec

-99

Jun-

00

Dec

-00

Jun-

01

Dec

-01

Jun-

02

Dec

-02

SA

CO

B In

dex

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

SA

AC

E In

dex

SACOB SAACE

Leading indicatorsSACOB vs SAACE


SAACE Fee income vs confidence

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jun-96 Jun-97 Jan-98 Jun-98 Jan-99 Jun-99 Jan-00 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02

CO

NF

IDE

NC

E IN

DE

X

2,000

2,300

2,600

2,900

3,200

3,500

3,800

4,100

4,400

4,700

5,000

Fee

inco

me

(con

stan

t pr

ices

)

Confidence Fee income Constant prices


SAACE Employment vs Real Value of Fee income

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

Jun-96 Jun-97 Jan-98 Jun-98 Jan-99 Jun-99 Jan-00 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 02-Jun 02-Dec

Em

ploy

men

t

2,000

2,300

2,600

2,900

3,200

3,500

3,800

4,100

4,400

4,700

5,000

Fee

inco

me

(con

stan

t pr

ices

)

Employment Fee income Constant prices


FEE INCOMEReal percentage change

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

Jun-97 Jan-98 Jun-98 Jan-99 Jun-99 Jan-00 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 02-Dec

Survey period

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE


Company Profile

100 - 49920%

50 - 9913%

10 - 4928%

<104%

>50035%

100 - 4994%

10 - 4947%

50 - 998%

>5002%

<1039%

Employment Number of companies


Profit Margins

Group Jun-00 Dec-00

Jun-01 Dec-01 Expected trend (Jan-Jun 2002)

A> 500

3% 5% 8% 8.5% All respondents expect margins to improve

B100 – 499

1% 8% 13% 7.8% 50% expect profit margins to remain

static and 35% expect a drop

C50 – 99

7% 8% 12% 10% Strong majority expect profit margins to

remain stable

D10 – 49

12% 13% 11% 11% Just over 50% expect stability, whilst 38%

expect a drop

E< 10

14.2% 14.9% 18% 12% Half expect stability, 30% a decline and 20% expect higher margins.


Sub-markets…/page 1 (New definition)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Civil Transport Structural Proj Man Electric Develop Facilities

% s

ha

re

Dec'99 Jun'00 Dec'00 Jun'01 Dec'01


Sub-markets…/page 2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Geotech Mech Industry Environ Build IT Mang Cons Mining

% s

ha

re



Sub-markets…/page 3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Proc eng Town plan Archit Disputeresol

Agric Marine Electron QS Chem Land Surv

% s

ha

re



Sub-marketsR mill, constant prices

Top five sub-markets (Based on old definitions)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99

R m

ill,

Co

nst

an

t 19

95 p

rice

s

Civil Transport Structural Proj Mang Electric


Sub-marketsR mill, constant prices

Top five sub-markets

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000


R m

ill,

Co

nst

an

t 19

95 p

rice

s



Sub-marketsMarket Share:Top five sub-markets

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%


R m

ill,

Co

nst

an

t 19

95 p

rice

s


Combined these sectors represent 75% of the market


Sub-marketsChange Dec’01 / Dec’00

-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

AcoustAgric

ArchitectureBuild Sev

ChemCivil

DevelopDisputeElectirc

ElectronEnviron

FacilitiesGeotech

IndustrialIT

Land SurvMarine

MechMining

Mngt ConsProc EngProj Man

QSStructural

Town planTransport


Provincial Market ShareJuly - December 2001

Fee income

E-CAPE7%

MPU4%

African9%

Int'l2%

KWA-NAT9%

GAUT32%

N-PROV8%

N-W9%

FS3%

W-CAPE13%

N-CAPE4%


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

E-CAPE W-CAPE N-CAPE FS N-W N-PROV GAUT MPU KZN Africa Int'l

% S

ha

re (

ba

r)

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

% p

oin

ts c

hang

e (

line

)

% Share% Change

Provincial Market ShareAs at Dec’01

and % Change on Jun’01


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

E-CAPE W-CAPE N-CAPE FS N-W N-PROV GAUT MPU KZN

% S

ha

re (

ba

r)

Building construction

Civil construction

SAACE Fee income

Provincial Market Share: ConstructionAs AT Dec’01

Based on contract awards: July – December 2001


Income per provinceR mill, constant prices

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec'00 Jun'01 Dec'01

R m

ill,

Co

nst

an

t 19

95 p

rice

s

E-CAPE W-CAPE N-CAPE FS N-W N-PROV GAUT MPU KWA-NAT


Income generated in Africa and across borders

R mill, constant prices

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun'01 Dec'01

R m

ill,

Co

nst

an

t 19

95 p

rice

s

African Int'l


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Central Provincial Local Parastatals Private

% S

hare

Jan - Jun 97

Jan - Jun 98

Jul - Dec 98

Jan - Jun 99

Jul - Dec 99

Jan- Jun 00

Jul- Dec 00

Jan - Jun 01

Jul - Dec 01

Client distribution


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01

R m

ill, C

on

stan

t 19

95 p

rice

s

Private

Parastatals

Local

Provincial

Central

Client distributionR mill, Constant 1995 prices


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Enquiries Prefeas Pre-plan Detail Adjudication Construction

Net

% s

how

ing

impr

ovem

ent

Dec'96

Dec'97

Jun'98

Dec'98

Jun'99

Dec'99

Jun'00

Dec'00

Jun'01

Dec'01

Economic Product Cycle Indicators


-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Work in Work out

Ne

t %

sh

ow

ing

imp

rov

em

en

t

Dec'96

Dec'97

Jun'98

Dec'98

Jun'99

Dec'99

Jun'00

Dec'00

Jun'01

Dec'01


Summary

Work in: Enquiries, Pre-feasibility, Pre-planWork out: Detail plan, Adjudication, Construction



ENQUIRIES

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ne

tt %

of

imp

rov

em

en

ts

Enquiries Prefeasibility



WORK FLOWING IN

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200


Ne

tt %

of

imp

rov

em

en

ts


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Eng O Tech Support staff

Dec'97

Jun'98

Dec'98

Jun'99

Dec'99

Jun'00

Dec'00

Jun'01

Dec'01

% of Firms wanting to increase staff


% of Firms wanting to increase staff

Engineers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ju

n-9

7

De

c-9

7

Ju

n-9

8

De

c-9

8

Ju

n-9

9

De

c-9

9

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Eng O Tech Other PDI Eng PDI Tech

Dec'97

Jun'98

Dec'98

Jun'99

Dec'99

Jun'00

Dec'00

Jun'01

Dec'01

Recruitment problems


Employment BreakdownWorkforce Analysis

July – December 2000

11%

6%

5%

6%

5%1%

3%

15%5%6%

6%

26%

5%

Part

Assoc

Pr.Eng

Other

Eng

Grad

Technolo

Technicians

Tech Ass

Draught

Laboratory

Admin

Site

Disabled = 0,6%


Employment BreakdownWorkforce Analysis


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White

Asian

Coloured

Black


Employment BreakdownWorkforce AnalysisJanuary – June 2001

11.33%

7.79%

5.75%

18.02%

6.13%

28.11%

2.44%5.49%

3.91%

2.13%

1.53%

6.16%

Part

Assoc

Pr.Eng

Prof Other

Engineers

Technologists

Technicians

Technical Assistants

Draughtspersons

Lab

Admin

Site

Disabled = 0,2%


Employment BreakdownWorkforce AnalysisJanuary – June 2001

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White

Asian

Coloured

Black


Employment ProfileJuly – December 2001

Full time85%

Part time15%


Employment trends1999 - 2001

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

DEC-99 JUN-00 DEC-00 JUN-01

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

Black

Coloured

Asian

White


Bursaries% of Salary / Wage bill

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%D

ec

-96

De

c-9

7

Ju

n-9

8

De

c-9

8

Ju

n-9

9

De

c-9

9

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1


Bursaries

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

De

c-9

6

De

c-9

7

Ju

n-9

8

De

c-9

8

Ju

n-9

9

De

c-9

9

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1


Training% of Salary / Wage bill

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%D

ec

-97

Ju

n-9

8

De

c-9

8

Ju

n-9

9

De

c-9

9

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1


Training

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

De

c-9

7

Ju

n-9

8

De

c-9

8

Ju

n-9

9

De

c-9

9

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1


PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


Survey period

R m

ill

con

sta

nt

2000

pri

ces

(lin

e)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

% o

f to

tal

inco

me

(b

ar)

% of income R mill constant prices


0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

Jun-98 Jan-99 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01

Uti

lisa

tio

n

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ne

t %

ch

ang

e e

xpe

ctin

g im

pro

ve

me

nt

Net % Change Utilisation

INDUSTRY CAPACITY


Total fee income outstanding as percentage of

total potential fee income By type of client

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ou

tsta

nd

ing

as

% o

f to

tal

fee

in

com

e

Jul'97

Dec'98

Jun'99

Dec'99

Jun'00

Dec'00

Jun'01


Fee income outstanding for longer than 90 days as percentage of total potential fee income

By type of client

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

% o

utst

andi

ng fo

r lon

ger t

han

90 d

ays

Dec'99

Jun'00

Dec'00

Jun'01

Dec'01

Possible distortions in Dec01 due to changes in questionnaire


Approximately R358 million in real terms, are outstanding for longer than 90 days as at

December 2001

Client % Share R mill 2000 prices

Central governmen

t

29% R105

Provincial 10% R36

Local 14% R50

Parastatal 7% R26

Private sector

39% R141

Total 1005 R358


Total fee income outstandingFor longer than 90 days

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200J

un

-99

De

c-9

9

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1



Central

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16D

ec

-99

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1



Provincial

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14D

ec

-99

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1



Local

0

2

4

6

8

10

12D

ec

-99

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1



Private

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18D

ec

-99

Ju

n-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ju

n-0

1

De

c-0

1


Comparison of total fees outstanding

90 Days or moreAs percentage of total potential fee income

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1998 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01

Fe

e in

com

e o

utst

and

ing

(b

ar)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

% o

f to

tal f

ee

inco

me

out

stan

din

g (

line

)

R mill, Constant prices % of total potential fee income


Comparison of total fees outstanding

90 Days or more, by type of clientAs percentage of total potential fee income

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

>500 100 - 499 50 - 99 10 - 49 <10 Average

CEN

PROV

LOC

PARAST

PRIV

TOTAL


Payments outstanding for longer than 90 days as % of gross fee income,

by type of clientJanuary – June 2001

CATEGORY Total CLIENT

CEN PROV LOC PARAS PRIV

> 500 7.86 8.28 9.73 8.26 8.62 6.91

Between 100 and

499

5.90 1.11 2.08 4.97 1.95 12.98

Between 50 and 99

6.45 0.60 6.40 3.84 5.92 10.80

Between 10 and 49

4.65 3.77 3.62 7.31 5.35 3.92

Less than 10

8.34 0.76 6.05 13.67 0 12.07

Average 6.77 6.07 6.05 6.84 6.18 7.44


Payments outstanding for longer than 90 days as % of gross fee income,

by type of clientJuly – December 2001



> 500 12.4 19.01 2.23 9.47 18.37 11.59

Between 100 and

499

7.86 9.74 24.03 8.24 23.68 3.46

Between 50 and 99

8.69 8.70 5.51 3.48 4.09 12.63

Between 10 and 49

7.75 6.92 4.45 5.32 3.82 13.61

Less than 10

9.21 6.59 15.53 10.85 4.87 10.12

Average 9.46 14.29 8.23 7.47 12.74 8.58


Client market shareby type of client and firm size




> 500 100.0 32.35 16.15 9.35 3.44 38.72

Between 100 and

499

100.0 12.22 7.39 24.66 4.48 51.25

Between 50 and 99

100.0 12.48 7.73 16.58 5.17 58.03

Between 10 and 49

100.0 16.40 14.69 21.99 11.20 35.72

Less than 10

100.0 13.25 14.33 19.90 9.14 43.38

TOTAL 100.0 19.82 11.89 18.18 5.56 44.55


Public Private Partnerships(PPP’s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Advising PublicSector

AdvisingPrivate sector

Equity partner

Dec'99

Jun'00

Dec'00

Jun'01

Dec'01


0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

>500 100 - 499 50 - 99 10 - 49 <10

Company profile

PP

P %

of

gro

ss i

nco

me

01-Jun Average 01-Dec

PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPSCompany involvement by size of company

Average


Escalation trendsYear-on-Year % Change

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

CPI 8.7 6.9 5.8 5.3 6.5 5.5 5 4.8

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Based on headline consumer inflation (CPI)

Upward pressures likely


Client distribution by size of company

Category

Size according to employment

> 500 More than 500 people

Between 100 and

499

Between 100 and 499

Between 50 and

99

Between 50 – 99

Between 10 and

49

Between 10 and 49

Less than 10

Less than 10 people


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

A B C D E

Size categories of companies

% S

hare

of c

lient

inco

me

PRIV

PARAST

LOC

PROV

CEN

Client distribution by size of companyJanuary – June 2000



CATEGORY CLIENT


A 32.09

10.88 16.4 4.2 36.43

B 20.68

14.02 36.5 1.65 27.15

C 5.94 4.83 12.57 7.45 69.21

D 7.82 9.15 27.79 6.01 49.23

E 5.75 11.82 18.72 4.27 59.43


Client distribution by size of companyJuly – December 2000

CATEGORY CLIENT


A 25.8 9.91 13.39 3.78 47.12

B 19.84

20.66 39.76 1.19 18.56

C 19.26

5.03 10.54 3.19 61.98

D 8.95 17.36 22.88 0.69 50.13

E 11.44

8.34 24.20 11.52 44.50


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

A B C D E


% S

hare

of c

lient

inco

me

PRIV

PARAST

LOC

PROV

CEN




CATEGORY CLIENT


A 25.27

12.17 16.57 3.08 42.90

B 23.74

24.36 28.37 1.07 22.47

C 18.25

10.44 32.50 0.25 38.56

D 9.26 10.73 21.38 4.46 54.18

E 17.44

17.49 15.19 3.75 46.12


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

A B C D E


% S

hare

of c

lient

inco

me

PRIV

PARAST

LOC

PROV

CEN




CATEGORY CLIENT


A 32.35

16.15 9.35 3.44 38.72

B 12.22

7.39 24.66 4.48 51.25

C 12.48

7.73 16.58 5.17 58.03

D 16.40

14.69 21.99 11.20 35.72

E 13.25

14.33 19.90 9.14 43.38


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

A B C D E


% S

hare

of c

lient

inco

me

PRIV

PARAST

LOC

PROV

CEN


saace confidence index

Documents