scottmcleod.net(click on Workshops)

dangerouslyirrelevant.org

The Law of Accelerating Returns

Technological change is exponential (contrary to the common-sense "intuitive” linear view).

9

Internet Hosts(computers or machines with IP

addresses)

Year

Hos

ts

`

Linear Plot

Internet Hosts(computers or machines with IP

addresses)

Year

Hos

ts

Logarithmic Plot

10

1E+09

1E+16

VP2600/10SX-3/44CM-5/1024Num. Wind Tun.

Num. Wind Tun.SR2201/1024CP-PACS/2048

ASCI RedASCI RedASCI White

ASCI WhiteEarth SimulatorSX-8

Blue Gene /L

Blue Gene /L

Blue Gene /LBlue Gene /LRoadrunner

Pleiades,Blue Waters, or RIKEN (announced)

First Exaflop Super-computer (forecast)

Year

Flop

s (F

loat

ing-

poin

t Ope

ratio

ns p

er

Seco

nd)

Growth in Supercomputer Power

40048008

8080 8086286 386

486Pentium

Pentium IIPentium III

Pentium 4 (1700)Pentium 4 (3066)

Pentium D 830

Core 2 Extreme QX6700 C2E QX9770

Processor Performance (MIPS)

Year

`

Doubling time: x years

MIPS

Logarithmic Plot

Logarithmic Plot

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010400480088080

8086286

386486 DX Pentium

Pentium IIPentium III

Pentium 4Itanium 2 Itanium 2 (2003)Itanium 2 (2004)Xeon MP

Dual-Core Itanium 2Itanium 'Tukwila'

Transistors Per Chip (Intel processors)

YearTran

sisto

rs p

er c

hip

Logarithmic Plot

11

Random Access Memory Bits per Dollar (1950-2008)

Year

Bits

per

Dol

lar

(in y

ear 2

000

dolla

rs)

`

Doubling time: x years

Logarithmic Plot

12

Cost Per Transistor Cycle

Year $

/Tra

nsis

tor/

Hz

Doubling time: x years

Doubling time: x years

Doubling time: x years

Doubling time: x years

1.00E-081.00E-071.00E-061.00E-051.00E-041.00E-031.00E-021.00E-01

1.00E+00Average Transistor Price

Year

Dolla

rs

Logarithmic Plot

Microprocessor Clock Speed

Year

(Hz)

`

Doubling time: x years

`

Doubling time: x years

`

Doubling time: x years

Logarithmic Plot

Logarithmic Plot

13

Magnetic Data Storage Bits Per Dollar

Year

Bits

/$

Logarithmic Plot

14

Total Bits Shipped

Year

Total Bits Shipped

Sou rc e: I TR S

`

`

Doubl ing time: x years

`

Doubl ing time: x years

Logarithmic Plot

15

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20080

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000Internet Data Traffic (U.S.)

Year

Peta

byte

s/Yea

r

.1

.01

Logarithmic Plot

16

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20041

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

Price-performance of wireless data devices

YearBi

ts p

er s

econ

d/$

19651970

19751980

19851990

19952000

20052010

1E+04

1E+06

1E+08

1E+10

Internet Backbone Bandwidth (Bits per Second)

Year

Bits

per

Sec

ond

Logarithmic Plot

Logarithmic Plot

17

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS) DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH)

EVERY YEAR

18

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

U.S. Patent Applications

Year

Pate

nt A

pplic

atio

ns

Logarithmic Plot

19

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000World Annual Photovoltaic Pro-

duction

Year

Megawatts

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101

10

100

1,000

10,000World Annual Photovoltaic Production

Year

Megawatts

Logarithmic PlotLinear Plot

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000World Cumulative Photovoltaic

Production

Year

Meg

awat

ts

Logarithmic PlotLinear Plot

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

5,000

10,000

15,000World Cumulative Photovoltaic

Production

Year

Meg

awat

ts

20

0.000000.000010.000100.001000.010000.100001.00000

10.00000100.00000

1,000.0000010,000.00000

DNA Seqencing Cost

Year

Cost

in D

olla

rs

19801985

19901995

20002005

2010

1E+02

1E+04

1E+06

1E+08

1E+10

Growth in Genbank DNA Sequence DataBase Pairs

Year

Base P

airs and Sequences

Logarithmic Plot

Logarithmic Plot

21

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

2

4

6

8

10

IT's Share of the Economy

Year

% o

f GD

P

`

Doubling time: x years

Logarithmic Plot

22

10

100

1,000

Manufacturing Output Per Hour

Year

Out

put

per H

our

Logarithmic Plot

23

We won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century. It will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).

24

25

Every year learning will be more …

open

accessible

transparent

free

real-time

convenient

networked

connected

global

collaborative

shared

crowdsourced

flexible

adaptive

individualized

personalized

mutimodal

technological

multimedia

self-directed

open

accessible

transparent

free

real-time

convenient

networked

connected

global

collaborative

shared

crowdsourced

flexible

adaptive

individualized

personalized

EMPOWERING

mutimodal

technological

multimedia

self-directed

Are youmoving

fast enough?