ruvento ventures - investing in hardware guide 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Investing in hardwareDecember 2015
What is hardware?
Techno trends
Investing in hardware
Unicorns in HW
Venture model & business model
Role of crowdfunding
Hardware startup
What is consumer hardware product?Hardware product is a connected device with a
set of features. Hardware is a platform.
Software does not exist without hardware.
PCB + Industrial Design + Algorithm + Cloud
Hardware device components
Sensors Connectivity Brains
blood, air, etc. ZigBee, Bluetooth, WiFi
Microcontrollers Microprocessors
Source: http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/outlook/internet-of-things/iot-report.pdf
New hardware startups on Angelist
3500 - 6000 HW startups
globally
200-400 HW startups
in Russia
Drivers of growth - IoT, Moore’s Law & beyond
3D printing & prototyping technology
open hardware
connectivity of devices - IoT,
sensors
Nanotechnology
Cheap sensors, Cheap bandwidth, Cheap processing
Semiconductors’ price falling
100x times decrease
Components price
decrease
100x times decrease2015 vs. 2012
Microcontrollers' market growth
CAGR 11%
Drivers of growth - IoT, Moore’s Law & beyond
crowdfunding 10,000,000 backers
1.5 billion smartphones as
controllers(IDC)
Pipes & apps
Techno trends
Internet of Things: Technology Roadmap
2000 2010 2020 Time
RFID tags (routing, inventorying, loss
prevention)
Surveillance, security, healthcare, transport ,
document management
Locating people & everyday objects
Teleoperation & Telepresence
Advanced sensor fusion
Miniaturisation, power-efficient
electronics
Indoor communication
Tech
nolo
gy re
ach
we are here
CES trends 2016
CES, also known as the Consumer Electronics Show, is an internationally renowned electronics and technology
trade show, attracting major companies and industry professionals worldwide. Inaugurated in 1967, it hosts 140 000 attendees & nearly 1000 companies.
New products & technologies are often debuted on CES.
CES Innovation Awards (large companies)Diet sensor based on SCIO Smart fish finder Vehicle intelligence by Ford
360 degree camera Ricoh Theta S
OURA - Smart ring with biosignal tracking Video headphones
Lily drone Musical seaboard RIDE Robotic bartender
Source: CES (2015)
Gartner: Which technologies will get adopted at scale?
Smart robots Human augmentation
Connected home Autonomous vehicles
Smart workplace Quantified self
IoT Wearables 3D printing
3D printing innovation - new materials, incl.
advanced nickel alloys, carbon fiber, glass,
conductive ink, electronics,
pharmaceuticals and biological materials
Connected things - Digital Mesh
AI: autonomous learning (DNN) &
agentsSource: Gartner (2016)
User need & demand
USER NEEDTechnology Push Market Pull
push through R&D, production & sales
function
response to an identified market
need
x
AR Smart watches
need to test market & user needs
can be validated via crowdfunding
Source: Ruvento analysis
Investing in Hardware - Facts
Investment in HW rocketed in 2012-2013Hardware startups by the year of funding
Source: O’Reilly «Hardware by the numbers» (2015)
Hardware is boomingChances to find/build unicorn hardware startup is 2x times higher than
pure software startup. There are still few: 6000 hardware startups - 11+ unicorns
investment hardware startups is booming
Source: TechCrunch, Bolt
$3.5 bln
IoT investments soar
Source: http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/05/vcs-look-to-the-future-as-iot-investments-soar/
Share of HW investment in total investment?
US data
$48 billion
$3.5 billion
4,356 deals
200+ deals
$19.8 billion 1,799 deals
100%
4.6%
41%
100%
7.3%
41%
Global VC funding vs. HW VC funding
Total VC
HW VC
Soft VC
Source: PWC MoneyTree (2015), bolt.io (2015)
Hardware ecosystem growthCommunity Accelerators Fablabs
over 1000 hackerspaces
worldwide
Source: Haxlr8r
Physical things are great. They just haven't been as great a way
to start a rapidly growing business as software.
Paul Graham
Source: http://www.paulgraham.com/hw.html
Most funded hardware startups & exits
Features of hardware unicorns• Software is a key: there is (almost) no hardware without software
• Exit: mostly M&A, only 1 IPO
• Most companies are B2C. Robotics are mostly B2B
• Wearables and smartwatches are a smaller percentage
• Crowdfunding is becoming a platform for top hardware startups
• Hardware unicorns are growing faster
• Unicorns ship productsSource: http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/17/lean-hardware-breeding-hardware-unicorns/
Business Model in Hardware
Other business models - unlock Venture Model & stable cash flows
Jawbone
Portfolio model
Pebble
Hardware-as-a-Platform
Kindle Dropcam
Hardware-enabled servicesSoftware
$46 m$818 m $48 m
HESHaaP
Source: Ruvento research, TechCrunch
Raised:
Other business models - unlock Venture Model & stable cash flows
CreoPop Petnet
Consumables Ecosystem
Makerbotnot disclosed $10mRaised: $4m
Economies of scale in HWBO
M m
ark-
up p
rice
1
1,25
1,5
1,75
2
1 10 100 1000 1000000Units
depends on product demand
Source: https://presentate.com/noupside/talks/hardware-trends-hardware-by-the-numbers#slide-52
2015 2020
7,1
2,7
IoT Market Challenge: «Things» is a small slice…Internet of Things Total Market
(in USD billion)Hardware vs. Software IoT Sales in
B2B by 2020
Hardware 10 %
Software 90 %
Source: IDC, 2014 Source: Business Insider (BI), 2014
• 23 billion active IoT devices is expected by the year 2019, which is expected to push down device pricing.
• Most of the spending will go to software & services, while hardware sales will account for a very small slice.
• Barriers to entry are high cost & time associated with setting up IoT systems.
Software is key!
Crowdfunding: funding or validation?
Top hardware startups & crowdfunding
Source: http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/17/lean-hardware-breeding-hardware-unicorns/
Top hardware startups & crowdfunding
Source: http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/17/lean-hardware-breeding-hardware-unicorns/
- top crowdfunded
Crowdfunding is becoming a systematic
validation method for hardware
startups
VC funding or Crowdfunding first?
Crowdfunding campaigns are launched after the VC round
Source: O’Reilly «Hardware by the numbers» (2015)
Case-study: Canary
http://www.fastcolabs.com/3035852/how-vcs-use-crowdfunding-to-make-sure-their-hardware-startups-pay-out
The all-in-one home security system you
control from your phone. It’s built to learn and sends intelligent alerts
with HD video and audio directly to
your phone.
2013 $1.2 million seed
2013 $2 million on Indiegogo with a goal of $100,000
2014 $10 million from Khosla
2015 $30 million from Walden
Crowdfunding - Unlocking Venture Model
0
4
8
12
16
Pre-seed Seed Pre-Round A Round A
Company value growth 4-10x after
crowdfunding
Product validation
Marketing
Valuation growth
1
2
3
Valuation, $m
Crowdfunding - findings by CB Insights• $321 million – Total VC financing to-date to crowdfunded hardware projects • 9.5% – The percentage of crowdfunded hardware campaigns that have gone
onto raise VC • 2013 – The momentum has been building as might be expected and 2013 was a
big year for funding. 2014, if the current run-rate continues, we will see a new deal high for crowdfunded hardware campaigns.
• Misfit, Formlabs and SmartThings – The top 3 most well-funded crowdfunded hardware startups (un-exited)
• Unrelated – Surprisingly, there doesn’t appear to be a relationship between the amount a campaign raises on a crowdfunding platform and the amount it raises from VCs.
Source: Crunch Base (2015)
Unrelated crowdfunding vs. VC funding size
Key takeaways• Crowdfunding is a model of validation & value growth
• Hardware unicorns - software+hardware monetization model
• Crowdfunding is launched after seed funding
• Hardware startups & investment boomed after 2012
• Key hardware market drivers - cheap components, technology shifts, crowdfunding, smartphones
Checklist of a successful hardware startup• Business model - recurring revenue
• CEO is proven leader
• Domain expertise
• Speed of execution
• Product ecosystem change for roadmap of future products
• Product economics
• Market & dynamics
• Innovation