russian oil and gas reserves
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RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS RESERVES. Ray Leonard YUKOS Uppsala, May 22, 2001. Factors to consider. Existing Reserves Production Capability Export Capability Future Discoveries. New o utlook for o il r eserves in Russia and Middle East: r eality or political numbers game ?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS RESERVES
Ray LeonardYUKOS
Uppsala, May 22, 2001
Factors to consider
• Existing Reserves• Production Capability• Export Capability• Future Discoveries
New outlook for oil reserves in Russia and Middle East: reality or political
numbers game?
360
634
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
World Energ
y
Council (1
998)
Prove
d (inter
nat.
audite
d 99- 0
0 )
reserv
es of T
op 4*
46.5 40.2
81.893
0102030405060708090
100
Russia & Russian companies’oil reserves
1988 Middle East (OPEC) oil reserves leap
Prove
d (A+B
+C1)
reserv
es of T
op
10**
Prove
d (A+B
+C1)
and 50
% of C2
reserv
es of T
op 10**
19881987
(bn bbl) (bn bbl)
* LUK, YUKOS, SurgutNG,TNK ** 4 with Onako + Sidanco, Rosneft, Tatneft,Sibneft,Slavneft, Bashneft
Oil Equivalent Reserves
0100200300400500600700800
MiddleEast
Russia andCaspian
OtherOPEC
Non OPECexporters
OilGasBOE total
RUSSIAN AND CASPIAN PRODUCTION COMPARED TO WORLD PRODUCTION
10,88,8
5,86,9
10,50,7
1,1
0,9
0,8
3,519,3
16,5
10,89,4
15,2
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
1986 1991 1996 2001 2010
mm
bo/d
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
% W
orld
Pro
duct
ion
CaspianRussian% WORLD Production
TCF GAS
2,93
9
22,5919,06 20,47 20,47
1,69
3,74
4,87
1,943,88 5,821,06
2,121,41
2,82
0,07
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
RUSSIA CURRENT PRODUCTION AREAS CENTRAL ASIA EAST SIBERIA RUSSIAN OFFSHORE
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
2000 2001 2002
50 58 70
YUKOS PRODUCTION
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1986 1987 19881989 1990 1991 19921993 1994 1995 19961997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Year
ly P
rodu
ctio
n, mill
ion
tons
YUKOS PRODUCTION
Average daily rate per new well by Russian oil companies in 2001
75,4
58,0
27,724,2
22,3 21,3 19,7 18,5
12,8
8,34,0
22,4
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
t / d
YUKOSSibneft
ONAKO
SIDANCO
LukoilTNK
SlavneftRosneft
SurgutneftegasBashneft
TatneftTotal
FSU oil is competitive on the world market
Reserves,bln.bbl
* - finding, development and production excl. transportation and taxes (CERA,Sept. 2001)
100
16
12
8
4
200 300 400 500 600 700
$/bbl
Iraq
Kuw
ait
IranSaudi Arabia
UA
E
USA
, str
ippe
r wel
ls
Wes
tern
Sib
eria
Vene
zuel
a(x-
heav
y)
Oth
er L
atin
Am
eric
a
Nig
eria
Alg
eria B
rasi
l
Nor
th S
ea
Wes
tern
Can
ada
Mex
ico
Chi
na (o
nsho
re)
Indo
nesi
a
USA, Mexican Gulf (deep)
USA
, Ala
ska
USA onshore
Angola
Kaz
akhs
tan
Russia
Oth
er
Worldwide full-cycle upstream cost* of oil in 2001
800
Best Companies**
** - 2001 finding, development and production cost –3.7 $/bbl,
Including Government expenses
Vene
zuel
a(co
nv)
OIL EXPORT ROUTES
GAS EXPORT ROUTES
Future Potential Reserves
0
50
100
150
200
250
Russia andCaspian
MiddleEast
DeepWater
OilGasTotal BOE
EXPLORATION MATURITY
Potential of Russian Shelf
• Seven major basins, each equal to or larger than the Gulf of Mexico or the North Sea
• Extensions of producing trends in Pechora Sea, Kara Sea and Sea of Okhotsk
• Thick sedimentary basins with all elements for hydrocarbon accumulations in other Arctic and Pacific Basins
RU
SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2000-2010
20 MMBOD22 MMBOD
15 MMBOD 16 MMBOD
US CONSUMPTION
8,0 7,0
6,05,0
2,54,0
2,5 3,0
2,01,01,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010
mm
bod
OTHER
RUSSIA+CASPIAN
MIDDLE EAST
AFRICA
WEST HEMISPHERE
USA
W.EUROPE CONSUMPTION
7,05,0
3,04,0
3,0 4,0
2,0 3,0
0
4
8
12
16
2000 2010
mm
bod
RUSSIA+CASPIAN
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EUROPE
EAST ASIA CONSUMPTION
6,0 5,0
11,016,0
1,02,0
1,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010
mm
bod
OTHER
RUSSIA+CASPIAN
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EAST ASIA
18 MMBOD
24 MMBOD
CONCLUSIONS• Russian oil reserves are probably in the range of 90-105 Billion barrels• These reserves will be capable of sustaining an additional 35%
increase over current levels (7.5 MMBOD) for an extended period• New export oil and gas pipelines will allow additional Caspian oil to
be marketed and supply Russian oil and gas to the Far East• A combination of mature, developing and frontier exploration can add
an estimated 40-50 billion barrels and larger amounts of natural gas• Russian and Caspian oil exports will reach the level of one half of the
Middle East by 2010• Russian gas reserves allow a significant increase from current
production and will assume increasing importance as world production eventually peaks and begins to decline