"russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by andrey laptev

14
RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF CURRENT GLOBAL STEEL TRENDS AND CHALLENGES Andrey Laptev, Head of Corporate Strategy February 12 th , 2014

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Presentation of Andrey Laptev, Head of Corporate Strategy Severstal Group, for Adam Smith Conferences.

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Page 1: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF CURRENT GLOBAL STEEL TRENDS AND CHALLENGES

Andrey Laptev, Head of Corporate Strategy February 12th, 2014

Page 2: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

Where the Global Steel Industry is Today

Source: Bloomberg, Severstal estimates

* Top-40 – companies, constituents of Bloomberg Global Steel Producers Index

• Subdued profitability

• Negative FCF

• Excessive leverage

Page 2

Average EBITDA margin, % CAPEX and leverage position

16.7%

9.0%

12.6%

10.7%

7.7% 7.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

55.1

45.4

47.4 47.0 46.5 46.0 1.8

3.7

3.2 3.2

4.0

3.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

40

46

52

58

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Total CAPEX, $ bn (LHS) Median Net debt/EBITDA (RHS)

Page 3: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

The Steel Overcapacity Challenge

Page 3 Source: Worldsteel, Severstal estimates

Global crude steel nominal excess capacity, mmt

• Healthy post-crisis demand growth was insufficient to offset existing structurally excess capacity and new additions

15%

23%

33%

23% 21%

24% 22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

500

1000

1500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Global excess steel capacity, mln tonnes (LHS) Excess capacity as % of total global crude steel capacity (RHS)

Page 4: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

Wait for “Invisible Hand” or Search for Solutions?

Page 4

Government measures

Capacity discipline

Local markets consolidation

SSAB / Ruukki merger

Chinese steel capacity regulation plans

Solutions in other industries

Page 5: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

20-Dec-12 24-Feb-13 1-May-13 6-Jul-13 10-Sep-13 15-Nov-13 20-Jan-14

US domestic (EXW) EU Southern (EXW) China export (FOB) Russia export (FOB)

US Market: A Healthy Example

Source: Metal Bulletin Page 5

• Capacity eliminations

• Market consolidation

• Healthy long-term demand

HRC prices by region, $/t

Page 6: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

Russian Steel Demand Supported in 2013-2014

Page 6 Source: Metal Expert, Severstal estimates

* In Severstal product range

Industry Estimated volume in 2013, mmt

Steel consumption growth, y-o-y, % Main drivers in 2013-2014

2013 2014F

Automotive 1.8 -10.5% • Localization • Households income growth

Machinery 13 -3.5% • White goods • Handling equipment • Agricultural machinery

Tubes and pipes 9 6%

• New pipelines projects (“South Stream”)

• Drilling activity • Construction

Construction 20 5.5% • Mortgage growth • Liquidation of savings

Domestic demand

43.8 3%*

Exports 25 -7.9% • Demand growth in Europe and the

USA • Removing sanctions against Iran

Steel consumption by the main demand segments in Russia

Page 7: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

Tougher Competition on Export Markets

Source: Worldsteel, CRU Page 7

Global crude steel production growth by region in 2013, YoY %

-2.7% -1.9% -1.8% -1.5%

-0.8%

1.9%

3.1%

6.8% 7.5%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

CIS (ex.Russia)

NorthAmerica

EU Russia SouthAmerica

Other Asia Japan Middle East China

Chinese finished steel exports, mln t

Total world: +3.5%

11 7 7 8

20 27

52

66 56

24

43 48

55 59

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Page 8: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

Russian Domestic Market Challenge

Page 8

Source: Company data, press releases

Selected pig iron, steel and rolling capacity additions in Russia

Domestic sales, as % of total

Source: Company data

Note: For Peer 2 domestic sales include sales to Russia & CIS

33%

59%

77%

39%

63%

84%

Peer 1 Severstal Peer 2

2012 2013Year Company Project Capacity, mtpa

2011 MMK Cold Rolling Mill-2000 2,0

2012 NLMK BF #7 at Lipetsk plant 3,4

2013 NLMK Kaluga mini-mill 1,5

2013 UMMC Tyumen mini-mill 0,5

2013 Severstal Balakovo mini-mill 1,0

2013 Novorosmetall New EAF at

Abinskiy plant 1,3

Page 9: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

Key Players’ CAPEX is Back to Normal

Page 9

Group CAPEX, $mln

Source: Company data, Severstal estimates

Note: For CAPEX/EBITDA ratio guided 2014 CAPEX and 9M2013 annualized EBITDA are used

1134

1460 1400

500

850 976

48%

58% 50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

400

800

1200

1600

Peer 2 Peer 1 Severstal

CAPEX Average in 2010-2013 CAPEX 2014E CAPEX/EBITDA, %

CAPEX/EBITDA Average in 2010-2013, %

80% 72%

54%

Page 10: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

Russian Steelmakers’ Profitability Stabilized

Page 10

Severstal’s Russian Steel Segment EBITDA per tonne vs Key peers, $/t

Source: Company data, Severstal estimates

117

102

60

82 73

163

93

74 82

115

2011 2012 1Q'13 2Q'13 3Q'13

Average (Peer 1, Peer 2) Severstal

Page 12: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

Severstal: Responding to the Challenges

Page 12

Dividends

CAPEX

Net debt

Margins

Payout of not less than 25% of Net Income

Medium-term target of $1.0bn per annum

Striving to keep Net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x

Targeting cycle-average EBITDA margin of c. 20%

FCF Stable positive free cash flow

Cost Position Middle-to-the-left position of all our assets on

the cost curve

Page 13: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

Thank You!

Page 14: "Russia in the context of current global steel trends and challenges" by Andrey Laptev

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