Russia and the US

• Population: Them: 150 million and shrinking; US: 300 million and growing (why immigration won’t work for them)

• GDP: Them 1.29 trillion; Avg. annual growth = 10%; 2009 contraction = 10%

US: 13.4 trillion• Nuclear warheads (deployed/ total). Them: 4718 / 13000

US: 2623 / 9400 (China: 180 / 240)• Military spending; Them: 59 billion (4% global, 4%GDP)

US: 607 billion (around half global; 4%GDP)

A quick review of past relations…• Why didn’t we like them? Why didn’t they like us?• What interests and strategies did we have in common?

Anti-imperialism, deterrence, BOP, centralization of domestic power, bipolarism

• What role did we play in their “democratic” transition (and its failure)?– Spending pressures– Europe or US as model?– Staying out of the way– Are Russians ready for democracy and a market

economy? Did we push them? Not guide them?– Did we make a mistake by backing Yeltsin?

US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS TODAY: THE REALIST SCHOOL• The core argument: We still have many strategic interests Russia that trump their becoming a democracy

• They aren’t our “friends:” Balancing doctrine…Or are they: biopolarism in Europe with US helping the USSR to balance Europe

• A weaker, democratic Russia more threatens us than a strong undemo. one.

• Does the oil rule apply?• Their nukes require realism

– The Treaty of Moscow: fewer bombs but still on hair trigger status– Dissolution of the ABM treaty; debates about missile shields – Russian new generation of MIRVs

• The Red Army’s threat to Europe vs. the threat to itself• Legitimate security concerns will lead to a predictably aggressive

Russia– 50 million Russians in the “near abroad”– NATO and EU expansion into the Baltics, Poland, & the perhaps the

Ukraine (this is what Georgia was about)– Chechnya and the war on terrorism

US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS TODAY: THE LIBERAL PERSPECTIVE IN THE REGION

• The core argument: Russia matters tremendously for the Third Wave of Democracy

• Putin the terrible: He is a model for Post-Soviet autocracies and we need to change him if we can

• Is it a wise idea to have different rules for non-western former-Soviet states?

• WTO and a Russian “special relationship” with NATO would make Russia less aggressive… but their behavior must be changed first

• A democratic, transparent Russia will be more stable economically… we should pressure for democracy in the region

• US should be willing to compromise strike power in return for reducing our threat Russia

• The US should try to aid Russian development because its emphasis on its primary economy will harm US interests over the long run