rural market survey h2 2014-summary

RICS/ RAU Rural Land Market Survey H2 2014

1

RICS Economics

RICS/ RAU Rural Land Market Survey Great Britain H2 2014

• Land prices break through £10,000 per acre

• Lower commodity prices tempers pace of demand but supply conditions remain tight

• Prices expected to continue rising The H2 RICS/RAU Rural Land Market Survey shows that demand for farmland continues to outpace supply. This is driving up prices and supporting expectations for further rises over the year to come. Rents remained broadly stable over the second half of the year and investment yields fell to match their previous all time low of 1.6%. The survey’s transactions based measure of farmland prices (which includes a residential component where its value is estimated to be less than 50%) rose by 2.8% during H2 and 8.3% over the year to reach £10,067 per acre based on a four quarter moving average. The survey’s opinion based measure (a hypothetical estimate by surveyors of the value of bare land) rose by 2% in H2 and by 6% year on year to reach £8,223 per acre. According to surveyors, average annual arable land rents (under the Agricultural Tenancies Act) decreased in H2 for the first time in six years but remain 0.8% higher over the year. Pasture lands rents, on the other hand, rose by 3.4% in H2 and by 7.8% over the year to reach £107 per acre. Anecdotal evidence from members suggests that the recent fall in commodity prices may be tempering the pace of demand, particularly for smaller blocks, in all parts of the country. However, demand is still increasing and tight supply conditions are providing additional support. Indeed, supply of commercial farmland remained flat or decreased in nine of the ten areas covered by the survey while demand grew in all but one part of the UK. Despite a slight fall in land price in H2 as a result of the uncertainty brought about by the independence referendum and CAP review, Scotland still experienced the highest (opinion based) annual price growth of any part of the UK with a rise of almost 17%. However, at an estimate of just £4375 per acre, prices in Scotland are still 47% below the national average with the price of pasture land at least 40% cheaper than any other part of the UK. Yorkshire and Humber and Wales also witnessed particularly strong price growth during 2014 with arable land in both areas driving the rises. The increase in demand from ‘lifestyle’ buyers that began in H2 2013 continued throughout the whole of 2014 with this trend being noticed across most parts of the UK. This is adding to price pressures and keeping price expectations in positive territory in all areas.

Tight Supply Conditions Supporting Price Expectations

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3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Scotland NorthEast

Eastern SouthEast

EastMids

National NorthWest

YorksHumber

SouthWest

Wales WestMids

*based on surveyor opinions of bare farmland prices

£per acre Regional opinion based price snapshot - H2 2014*

Source: RICS / RAU

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Transaction based measure includes residential component*

Opinion based measure - bare land only**

Source: RICS / RAU

* where residential value is estimated to be less than 50% of total value (based on a 4 quarter moving average)**Series started in 2003

Weighted average price of farmland England and Wales only

£per acre

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Commercial Residential

Source: RICS / RAU

Expected price changes - next 12 monthsNet balance, %Rising

Falling

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Commercial Residential

Source: RICS

Net balance, % Demand for farmland

Rising

Falling

2


Notes to editors • The statistics provided by RICS members in England, Wales and Scotland, are collated by the Royal Agricultural

University, Cirencester.

Rents: • Rental figures refer to the typical rent paid for let land for all grades, expressed as a median of all responses of five

or more. • England and Wales rent figures are the weighted average of regional results. • England and Wales yield figure is simple average for all data collected. • ATA = Agricultural Tenancies Act 1995; AHA = Agricultural Holdings Act 1986. Land prices: • Figures refer to the typical prices paid, in £ per acre for bare land. • Regional figures expressed as a median of all responses of five or more. • England and Wales figure is the weighted average (by region). • Non-residential land: where estimated residential value is less than 50%. • Residential land: where estimated residential value is greater than 50%. • The RICS ‘transaction’ based measure of farm land prices is based on actual sales and includes a residential com-

ponent, where that component is estimated to be worth less than 50% of the total value of the plot. • The RICS ‘opinion’ based measure of farm land prices is a hypothetical estimate of bare land only i.e. it excludes the

residential component. As a result, the opinion based measure will tend to be less than the transaction based meas-ure.

Farmland purchasers: • Regional figures for each category are based upon the average response of surveyors responding. • Figures may not aggregate to 100% due to rounding errors. • National balances refer to Great Britain and are based upon a simple average across all respondents. Net balances: • Balance = Proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in demand/availability minus those reporting a fall (if 30% report-

ed a rise and 5% reported a fall, the net balance will be 25%). • Demand and supply balances based on change over previous year. • Expectations balances based on change over next year. • National balances refer Great Britain and are based upon a simple average across all respondents. • Net balance data is opinion based; it does not quantify actual changes in an underlying variable. • Net balance data can range from -100 to +100. • A positive net balance implies that more respondents are seeing increases than decreases (in the underlying varia-

ble), a negative net balance implies that more respondents are seeing decreases than increases and a zero net bal-ance implies an equal number of respondents are seeing increases and decreases.

• Therefore, a -100 reading implies that no respondents are seeing increases (or no change), and a +100 reading implies that no respondents are seeing decreases (or no change).

• A change from +30 to +60 does not mean that the variable grew by 30% in one period and by 60% in the next peri-od, but it does indicate that twice as many surveyors reported an increase compared to a decrease than in the pre-vious period.

• Likewise, if the net balance reading drops from +90 to +5, this still means that more respondents are reporting in-creases than decreases overall, but the breadth of those reporting increases has fallen dramatically; meanwhile, a shift in the reading from -90 to -5 still means that more respondents are reporting decreases than increases overall, but the breadth of those reporting decreases has fallen dramatically.


3

England

Ben Taylor, MRICS, Bidwells, Cambridge, 01223 559459 - “2014 was another quiet year in terms of the volume of land traded, although several noteworthy and high-profile transactions illustrated the presence in the market of investor-purchasers, particularly for larger parcels of prime arable land. Such holdings look set to continue to prove popular, with further competition from those looking to roll over development gains as well as traditional landed buyers in the market. Smaller and lesser quality blocks of land have seen a slight cooling, but location remains key and there is evidence of second rate land still making first rate prices, depending on who the neighbours are.”

Scotland

Malcolm Taylor FRICS, Bell Ingram, Forfar, 01307 462516 -“Demand for prime arable land still strong especially land for vegetables and potatoes. Sales up to £12k per acre have been agreed. Demand for poorer land or land difficult to work has slipped. Arable and stock units, and units with limited arable potential will become less attractive in the coming year as commodity prices fall in the spring 2015.”

Mark Mitchell FRICS, Bell Ingram Limited, Perth, 01738 621121 –“The two main issues faced in 2014 were the referendum and CAP Review. Both of these impacted significantly on land sales in the second half of 2014. The referendum brought the market to a standstill with sellers being nervous about placing property on the market. The lack of any real detail about the Basic Scheme made both sellers and purchasers wary, in particular what entitlements might or might not be transferable and the likely level of future payment. All in all a year of little sales activity due to considerable uncertainty for both sellers and purchasers.”

James Galbraith MRICS, CKD Galbraith, Edinburgh, 01312 406962 – “The lower subsidy payments will affect land values, particularly following a difficult year in 2013 and with lower commodity

prices.”

Rod Christie FRICS, CKD Galbraith, Elgin 01343 546 362 -“Decrease in supply and steady demand has kept prices static. Very buoyant market for good arable farm land but much slower market for pasture land. Strong demand for land to rent but very limited supply without grazing licences.”

Jennifer Campbell MRICS, Peter Graham & Associates LLP, Avoch, 01463 811942 – “It is now becoming clear that the upland beef sector in my area in the highlands is going to suffer heavy reductions of SFP and for more marginal hill farms, this will result in the slashing of stocking and redundancies of herdsmen. More land I believe will come onto the market as older farmers with uninterested children elect to get out of farming. I believe that land values have peaked and will ultimately reduce in my area. I think rents will also need to adjust to the economic conditions which will be faced for upland livestock farming following the slashing of SFP.”

James Boulton MRICS, Smiths Gore, Wooler, 01668 280812 – “VP farmland sells well, anything with a tenant struggles.”

Wales

Tim Main MRICS, Balfours, Shrewsbury, 01743 353511 –“Quality land is still selling well. Buyers are still more conscious of problems such as bad access.”

Iwan Jones MRICS, BJP, Carmarthen, 01267 236363 –“Farmland prices vary considerably in the SA post code. Some areas where we have two or more expanding dairy farmers competing can see prices paid for bare land of over £10,000/acre. Where we don't have this competition from such buyers land is more reasonable priced. The market can be very hot or cold depending where the land is located.”

Gareth Wall, MRICS, McCartneys LLP, Kington, 01544 230316 – “Good productive arable and pasture land remains a strong price. The more marginal land on the Welsh borders and in Wales has eased slightly due to lower farming income and the forthcoming changes in the Basic Payment Scheme particularly in Wales. Good arable land in the west midlands remains a strong price with particular interest from businesses operating anaerobic digesters.”

Glyn Owens FRICS, McCartneys LLP, Knighton, 01547 528621 –“Demand will remain strong for farmland where there is neighbour and local interest. Unless arable returns improve there will be less interest in larger blocks of arable land. Livestock prices appear to be firming which will help fuel demand for grassland.”

David Powell, MRICS, Powells, Monmouth, 01600 714140 – “The latter half of 2014 saw little land or farms come to the market and those that did received modest interest, with no immediate offers or evidence of premium prices likely to be achieved for equipped farms. Many neighbouring owners adjacent to marketed land cautious in bidding too strongly for land, with concern over future interest rates and reduction in commodity prices being quoted as key reasons for cautiousness. Strong prices still being achieved for good quality accessible bare land where good local demand. An upsurge in applicant registration experienced following SDLT changes, possibly indicating some increase in demand at the end of the year heading into 2015.”

Gareth Lloyd FRICS, Watts & Morgan, Cowbridge, 01446 774152 – “The market continues to attract farmer clients despite the reduction in Single Farm Payments and milk prices etc. It is envisaged that prices will continue to rise during 2015. The demand for disused barns for conversion is not as strong

as in previous years although there is now demand for blocks of land suitable for solar parks and wind turbines, with quite a number already up and running on 30 year leases.”

Eastern

DH Sinfield FRICS, Alexanders, Huntingdon, 01480 432220 –“There is clear evidence of a two tier market for arable land with an overhang of sales which have not found buyers. Some parcels which were guided at £10,000 per acre have failed to sell at those levels and there is evidence that more realistic guiding is now required.”

Barry Hawkins, Barry L Hawkins, Downham Market, 01366 387180 – “As always when produce prices fall interest in land falls but there will always be the must have situation/once in a lifetime . Just wheat and rape land will be hard to sell.”

Ben Taylor MRICS, Bidwells, Cambridge, 01223 559459 – “2014 was another quiet year in terms of the volume of land traded, although several noteworthy and high-profile transactions illustrated the presence in the market of investor-purchasers, particularly for larger parcels of prime arable land. Such holdings look set to continue to prove popular, with further competition from those looking to roll over development gains as well as traditional landed buyers in the market. Smaller and lesser quality blocks of land have seen a slight cooling, but location remains key and there is evidence of second rate land still making first rate prices, depending on who the neighbours are.”

Jim Major FRICS, Brown&Co,

Kings Lynn, 07768 465748 –

“High asking prices for

commercial farms in more

unfashionable rural areas have

appeared to cool demand and the

sentiment in the market appears

to be less enthusiastic, not least

when looking at prices upwards of

£10,000 per acre. Smaller blocks

of bare land suited to farmer

buyers have traded at a material

Chartered Surveyor market comments

4


reduction in recent months as the

wheat price has fallen back.”

Mark Russell MRICS, Carter Jonas,

Cambridge, 01223 346 628 – “Less

land in the second half of the year in

the east continues to be sought after

by a large number of purchasers.

However, with some high prices

discussed in the market, vendor

expectations have risen and with the

agricultural commerciality of values

at current levels being questionable

there is some market discussion

about the possibility of a less

exuberant market into 2015.”

Chris Leney MRICS, Robinson &

Hall, Ipswich, 01473 835253 –

“Market remains strong. Local

bidders are still important for smaller

blocks of land. Larger blocks seeing

interest from farmers and non

farmers alike. Reasonable amount of

land changing hands privately.”

Adrian Wilson MRICS, Savills,

Cambridge, 01223 347231 – “There

is still sufficient demand for

commercial farmland. Location,

quality and size are the key

determining factors on high and low

values. There are signs there may be

an increase in supply and the effect

may be to put pressure on values

although we do not envisage any

significant decrease over the next 12

months.”

Tim Fagan MRICS, Strutt & Parker,

Chelmsford, 07702 199588 – “The

land market in Essex is extremely

strong, particularly to the west of the

county where there are a good

number of large farmers who benefit

from non farming income from let

buildings where there is great

demand close to London. Quality of

land is also an issue, and in areas of

central/west Essex around Great

Dunmow and also on the Tendring

Hundred east of Colchester, farmers

have traditionally been able to grow

high value crops and therefore have

the wherewithal to compete strongly

to buy what comes available.

Conversely, in parts of Essex where

local demand is not so strong, it can

be difficult to sell small blocks of

arable land (circa 50 acres) which

are uneconomic for farmer buyers to

travel a distance to farm. We see the

two tier market continuing where

some areas will sell well above

the average of £11,500/acre

whilst others will be below.”

Giles Allen MRICS, Strutt &

Parker, Ipswich, 01473 214841

–“The farmland market in east

anglia remains strong, although

the rise in values has stalled a

little following the substantial

increases of the first half of

2014. Supply remains tight and

demand, particularly from

private investors, relatively

strong. With soft commodity

prices recovering and a

depleted supply of land, values

should remain at least firm in to

the early part of 2015.”

Tom Goodley MRICS, Strutt &

Parker, Norwich, 01603 617431

–“Location, quality and size

seem to be the main three

factors influencing the farmland

market. Large blocks are

appealing to the institutional

investors and some great

results have been achieved.

Most farmers are not in a

position to buy very large

blocks of good quality arable

land, but they are still keen to

pursue more affordable blocks,

especially if located on their

boundary.”

East Midlands

Ben Taylor MRICS, Bidwells,

Cambridge, 01223 559459 –

“2014 was another quiet year in

terms of the volume of land

traded, although several

noteworthy and high-profile

transactions illustrated the

presence in the market of

investor-purchasers,

particularly for larger parcels of

prime arable land. Such

holdings look set to continue to

prove popular, with further

competition from those looking

to roll over development gains

as well as traditional landed

buyers in the market. Smaller

and lesser quality blocks of

land have seen a slight cooling,

but location remains key and

there is evidence of second

rate land still making first rate

prices, depending on who the

neighbours are.”

Elizabeth Allen MRICS, Brown

& Co, Spalding, 01775 717894

– “Demand is still strong in

popular buying areas where

supply is short. With tight

farming cash flows we have an

interesting 12 months ahead.”

Matthew Allen MRICS, Fisher

German, Banbury, 01295

271555 – “In the central

midlands region there remains

strong demand for most types

of farmland however prices

remain strongest where there is

an abundance of special

purchasers. We have seen

some weaker values for

intermediate size blocks where

there is not significant

commercial or investment

appeal. There remains a lack of

supply of larger arable blocks

with very strong demand from a

variety of purchasers when they

have become available. This is

also true for high quality

residential farms. The market

for 2015 is uncertain with few

farms likely to be available prior

to the general election.”

Ian Calverley MRICS, Fisher

German, Retford, 01777

861927 – “Demand in the

second half of the year has

been slowed by struggling

commodity prices. Strong

demand remains for good

blocks of commercial land in

good locations with reasonable

access or a significant

residential element. There still

remains significant investment

interest with money from

outside the industry. Good land

will still sell quickly and there

have been a number of off

market transactions and this

trend looks set to continue for

2015.”

Robert Hurst FRICS, Fisher

German, Newark, 01636

642504 –“Large well equipped

units sell at a premium; small

blocks of bare land where

demand is from local farmers

are achieving a wide range of

prices. There is now some price

resistance and due to the fall in

commodity prices this could put

pressure on land values in

2015.”

Jennifer Whitton MRICS,

Howkins & Harrison, Rugby,

01788 564694 – “The second

half of 2014 has seen an

increase in land being offered,

especially smaller blocks of off-

lying bare land. Land is

generally being sold where

farmers are retiring or families

have split up. A number of

properties sold this half have

been purchased by existing

farmers and the majority of

interest has come from farmers,

both locally and nationally if

there is a house and buildings

with the land. We are also

finding that location and type of

land is having a much bigger

impact on land sales and values

and a bigger gap is being seen

between well located quality

land and badly located poor

land. Rollover relief continues to

play a big part in rising land

values which is unlikely to

change until development

ceases.”

Andrew Pearce MRICS, Savills,

Lincoln, 01522 508933 –

“Supply will be restricted

particularly in relation to

commercial arable units but

much will depend on bank

borrowing and low commodity

prices which may force more

land on to the open market.

Demand will continue to remain

strong with purchasers

competing for the available

units. We predict that there will

be increased interest in the

better located residential

holdings on the back of the

improving residential market.

Demand is particularly strong for

the larger commercial arable

holdings and we predict that the

volume of private deals will

increase further in 2015 to as

much as possibly 35% of overall

sales.”

Charlotte Smithson MRICS,

Smiths Gore, Lincoln, 01522

507310 – “Investor buyers

continue to push up land values

in Lincolnshire on larger blocks.

Smaller blocks are still being

purchase predominantly by


5

farmers.”

Sam Holt MRICS, Strutt & Parker

LLP, London, 02073 185172 –

“Blocks of land over 100 acres

remain attractive to agri-

businesses with diverse income

streams. Smaller farmers have

been affected by lower commodity

prices, and as a result we may see

some of these come to the market

in the next six to twelve months.

Some large parcels of land have

traded without coming to the open

market, which has resulted in a

premium, but often only where

marriage value is concerned.

Rental values have been

compressed due to the lack of

return in the second half of 2014.”

North East

David Coulson FRICS, Addisons

Chartered Surveyors, Crook,

07779 623371 – “The continuing

shortage of quality farms continues

to distort the market. There is a

premium for quality farms and bare

land but demand for other land has

eased slightly. We have

experienced a huge variation in

sale prices across the north east

with a variation of as much as 30%

for arable land. Upland hill farms

lacking decent buildings can be

difficult to sell as stock needs to be

wintered when brought down from

the hill. Small parcels of grassland

under 10 acres have been making

substantial prices with many well in

excess of £10,000 per acre.”

Sam Johnson MRICS, Carter

Jonas, Harrogate, 07768 658217-

“General scarcity continues to be

the prevailing factor responsible for

the preservation of high values.

The market however is incredibly

discerning and values vary greatly

across the region and as such, an

appreciation of the local market is

key. It has been clearly

demonstrated that there are good

quality purchasers willing to pay a

premium for large, good quality,

commercial blocks of agricultural

land and well equipped units.

Properties with sporting value in

the region are also generating

significant interest from the

market.”

Neal Thompson FRICS, Edwin

Thompson, Berwick upon

Tweed, 01289 304432 – “There

has been remarkably little land

sold on the open market in this

area over the last 12 months.

The pace of land value increase

is likely to slow as 3 years of

modest profitability tempers

farmer demand. Good quality,

well located parcels of land with

a restricted residential element

are likely to continue to grow in

value, especially where there is

neighbour interest.”

Ashley Dodgson MRICS, GSC

Grays, Bedale, 01677 422400 –

“The land market continues to

remain robust with demand

exceeding supply albeit the gap

between prime and average

land is becoming more

pronounced with wide variances

in values. However, this does

not account for an increasing

number of private/off market

transactions, which are often at

premium prices to purchasers

with "roll-over" funds or

neighbouring farmers benefiting

from the synergy in owning

adjacent land. The strength in

depth of the market is mixed

particularly for poorer quality

land in less sought after areas,

where interest can be limited. It

is difficult to predict the direction

of the land market in 2015 with

variable commodity prices,

reduced farm profits, the

introduction of the Basic

Payment Scheme and a general

election. That said, whilst

interest rates remain at current

low levels, the UK and world

population continues to grow

and favourable IHT & CGT tax

regimes remain, land should

remain a popular investment.”

James Boulton MRICS, Smiths

Gore, Wooler, 01668 280812 –

“Lack of supply is affecting the

market, although this is

increasing the demand in the

rental sector where rents are

good.”

Charles Raine FRICS,

YoungsRPS, Hexham, 07730

546422 – “Demand in the letting

sector remains extremely strong

with a good number of strong

tenders for any farms which

come to the market. Equipped

farms are seeing a strong

demand from farmers wishing to

expand.”

North West

Graham Bowcock MRICS,

Berrys, Northwich, 01606

818953 – “We have seen

another interesting year with

continuing short supply in the

north west and strong demand.

Most land tends to be bought by

farmers, although this may ease

in line with downward pressure

in commodity prices. However,

non-farming investors and

amenity buyers continue to play

their part in making the market,

something which is likely to

continue as residential values

rise and tax breaks remain

available.”

South East

Julian Sayers FRICS, Adkin,

Wantage, 07850 397667 –

“Demand for farmland in the

locality continues to strengthen

fuelled by funds being available

from those selling development

land. Supply on the other hand

remains scarce particularly for

substantial parcels of arable

land.”

Russell Parkes MRICS,

Batcheller Monkhouse,

Pulborough, 01798 872081 –

“The south east land market is

generally stable. There is

reasonable demand for large

commercial blocks and small

amenity parcels. However this

lessens for mid-range areas of

about 50 acres, unless there is

neighbouring interest.”

Matthew Peters FRICS, Bruton

Knowles, Gloucester, 01452

880184 – “With so little coming

to the market anything that has

has sold very well in an

undersupplied market place.

The increasing number of farms

sold privately has all led so

some exceptional prices being

paid. Anything that is

commercial creates real interest

against those holdings that have

a large residential value. Land

values have become difficult to

call with certain areas achieving

well over £10,000 per acre whilst in

other areas where there is little

neighbouring interest sees little

enthusiasm in paying over £7,000 per

acre. Roll over money is again to the

fore with a number of purchasers still

looking. As long as supply remains so

tight I can see no reason for prices to

fall even though commodity prices

appear to be under pressure.”

Richard Liddiard FRICS, Carter Jonas,

Newbury, 01635 263012 –“The market

has continued to rise with demand

outstripping supply. However the

immediate future must be viewed with

some caution in the light of uncertainty

in the form of the upcoming election

plunging oil prices and a downturn in

economic activity throughout the world.

The changing outlook will inevitably

feed into the farmland market and we

will see a continued flight to quality

from well funded individuals/

businesses who have been driving the

market for the larger farms and blocks

of land. However the smaller parcels

may find it more challenging to achieve

high prices where the funding to

purchase will become an issue for

lenders in a period of uncertainty.”

Ed Smith MRICS, Carter Jonas LLP,

Oxford, 01865 404443 – “The market

has had a strong appetite for large

blocks of arable land around 700 acres

and above, with higher premiums

being paid for quality and location.

Medium sized blocks around 250 acres

have become much more reliant on

local interest, with little interest being

registered at all for second grade land,

except where there is a special

purchaser. Demand for smaller blocks

of 10-20 acres remains high in certain

areas, but largely driven by non-

farming purchasers.”

Matthew Allen MRICS, Fisher German,

Banbury, 01295 271555 – “In the

central midlands region there remains

strong demand for most types of

farmland however prices remain

strongest where there is an abundance

of special purchasers. We have seen

some weaker values for intermediate

size blocks where there is not

significant commercial or investment

appeal. There remains a lack of supply

of larger arable blocks with very strong

demand from a variety of purchasers

when they have become available.

This is also true for high quality

residential farms. The market for 2015

is uncertain with few farms likely to be

6


available prior to the general

election.”

Rowan Allan MRICS, HJ Burt,

Steyning, 01903 879488 – “A very

busy 2014 with some significant

acreages sold as working farms as

well as a number of smaller

amenity/lifestyle blocks attracting

the usual premium interest and

prices. With a few more blocks of

500 acres or more offered for sale

in Sussex in 2014, buyers had a

little more choice and with

competition as expected shown for

the best located and equipped

holdings, but with the less good

quality land areas still needing to

be realistically priced in order to

achieve sales.”

Andrew Brown MRICS, Marriotts

Property LLP, Faringdon, 01367

242422 – “Continued farmer led

demand keeps upward pressure

on land and farm buildings,

particularly arable. The residential

element is a more variable beast.

Larger houses with a few hundred

acres have seen less interest

whereas cottages and smaller

dwellings with land have enjoyed

good demand. We expect the

same to remain true during 2015.

The view that farmland is a good

bet in these still uncertain times

holds true as arable land prices

rose about ten percent in 2014 in

our area.”

Matthew Sudlow MRICS, Strutt &

Parker LLP, London , 02073

184668 – “The recent trend of less

and less land being transacted has

continued. Strutt & Parker

Farmland Database shows 64%

fewer acres sold publicly in 2014

when compared to 2012. This lack

of supply continues to underpin

land values. Prices will remain the

same and likely increase for any

larger blocks of land made

available (350 acres plus). The

lifestyle buyer is starting to

become more active again in the

south east. The upcoming general

election and any new government

policies this may bring such as

mansion tax could have a further

impact on this emerging trend.”

Simon Male MRICS, Woolley &

Wallis, Salisbury, 01722 424515 –

“The prevailing fiscal regime, low

interest rates and market

perceptions appear to be

encouraging landowners to hold

onto farmland in the expectation

that prices will continue to

increase and/or stabilise (but

not go down). The limited

supply of farmland to the open

market continues to create

fierce competition for the best

commercial blocks of farmland

but buyers appear increasingly

discerning with significant

discounts being applied to land

with shortcomings.

Comparatively less interest

residential farms despite

recovery in housing markets.

Increasing supply of pasture

land and small arable blocks to

rental market.”

South West

Kit Harding FRICS, Carter

Jonas, Bath, 01225 747271 -

“The farmland market in the

west country continues to see a

lack of supply. Premium prices

are being paid for well equipped

farms and larger blocks of

arable land. A greater

divergency between the value of

pasture land and arable land is

becoming evident and prices for

both are dictated by local

demand and quality. In some

less fashionable areas land is

proving more difficult to sell.”

David Kivell FRICS, D R Kivell

and Partners, Tavistock, 01822

810810 - “The 2014 farm and

land market suffered at the

hands of a late wet spring and

lower commodity prices.Low

milk prices will make banks less

keen to support land purchases

although prospects for beef and

sheep appear more optimistic.

Large scale pig farmers are very

bullish in the land market. The

change from single to basic

payment scheme is looking like

no more than a storm in a tea

cup. Residential buyers seem

poised to re-enter the residential

farm market.”

William Fox Grant MRICS, Fox

Grant, Salisbury, 01722 782727

– “There is a dire shortage of

supply of farms and bare land of

any quantity. In the 25 years of

marketing farmland I can not

remember a time with such a

shortage of supply. I am looking

forward to 2015 with some

optimism as it can only improve

from last year. We have

expanded in 2014 purchasing

Peter Radish Taunton so we do

expect more supply as a result!”

Will Handel MRICS, Greenslade

Taylor Hunt, Honiton, 01404

46222 – “The east Devon land

market continued to strengthen

throughout 2014 as established

farming businesses were keen

to expand further when the

opportunities arose. Increased

competition from non farming

buyers resulted in some

exceptional prices being

achieved. Location continues to

be an important factor in

determining value as prices can

vary significantly from one

district to another.”

Charles Lucas FRICS,

Humberts, Marlborough, 01672

519111 – “Whilst there is still an

underlying shortage of supply,

there is still a strong demand

but this is tempered by current

cereal prices. With a pending

election in 2014 we consider

that there is unlikely to be any

change in supply or land values

in the short term.”

Stuart Hext MRICS, Luscombe

Maye, Kingsbridge, 01548

857474 – “Demand continues to

outstrip supply. Real shortage of

whole farms coming to market.

Only pockets of "away" ground,

pony paddocks or marginal land

coming to market. Occasional

good quality block hotly

contested from buyers on local,

regional and national level.”

Andrew Brown MRICS,

Marriotts Property LLP,

Faringdon, 01367 242422 –

“Continued farmer led demand

keeps upward pressure on land

and farm buildings, particularly

arable. The residential element

is a more variable beast. Larger

houses with a few hundred

acres have seen less interest

whereas cottages and smaller

dwellings with land have

enjoyed good demand. We

expect the same to remain true

during 2015. The view that

farmland is a good bet in these

still uncertain times holds true as

arable land prices rose about ten

percent in 2014 in our area.”

Philip Hodgkin MRICS, Smiths Gore,

Taunton, 01823 446986 - “Increasing

differentiation in value between poor

land tending to be pasture and

ploughable/arable land”

Andrew Dodds MRICS, Stags, South

Molton, 01769 575244 – “Demand for

residential farms continued to

strengthen through the second half of

2014 with interest from buyers moving

into the south west and those already

living in the region. Land values

continue to be mainly driven by interest

from local farmers, who also appear

keen to take on existing commercial

units.”

Adrian Cannon MRICS, Tayler &

Fletcher LLP, Bourton-on-the-Water,

01451 820913 – “Limited supply

coming to market with private deals

still ongoing and values variable

dependant on interest.”

Tom Pullin MRICS, Voyce Pullin,

Bristol, 01454 269486 – “Bare land

values continue to remain strong

although with the recent deterioration

in the milk price there is an element of

uncertainty as to whether this is likely

to have an impact on values and

supply of land and farms coming to the

market. Together with the general

election in the spring the next six

months are likely to test the market.”

Simon Male MRICS, Woolley & Wallis,

Salisbury, 01722 424515 – “The

prevailing fiscal regime, low interest

rates and market perceptions appear

to be encouraging landowners to hold

onto farmland in the expectation that

prices will continue to increase and/or

stabilise (but not go down). The limited

supply of farmland to the open market

continues to create fierce competition

for the best commercial blocks of

farmland but buyers appear

increasingly discerning with significant

discounts being applied to land with

shortcomings. Comparatively less

interest residential farms despite

recovery in housing markets.

Increasing supply of pasture land and

small arable blocks to rental market.”


7

West Midlands

Tim Main MRICS, Balfours,

Shrewsbury, 01743 353511 –

“Quality land is still selling well.

Buyers are still more conscious of

problems such as bad access.”

Mike Taylor FRICS, Barbers Rural,

Market Drayton, 01630 692500 –

“Good quality arable land remains

very keenly sought after and where

there is irrigation, you can name

your price. The market for poorer

arable land and permanent pasture

is a lot more mixed, depending on

location and timing. Good quality

dairy farms are still selling well, but

some blocks of grassland in the

wrong places are more difficult to

sell. The advantage of good local

knowledge of the market place

cannot be under estimated.”

Jeremy Jehan MRICS, Brightwells,

Hereford, 01432 261325 – “All

parcels sold well and very pleasing

prices achieved, on a very quiet

year in lowland Herefordshire, with

few equipped farms available on

the open market. The uplands

were busier and generally

customers for most blocks. Price

has held up well, throughout, with

fewer purchasers actively looking.

Money still cheap to borrow but

commodity price falls and

squeezing subsidy returns may

just weaken the market if any extra

supply comes on stream in 2015.”

Matthew Peters FRICS, Bruton

Knowles, Gloucester, 01452

880184 – “With so little coming to

the market anything that has sold

very well in an undersupplied

market place. The increasing

number of farms sold privately has

all led so some exceptional prices

being paid. Anything that is

commercial creates real interest

against those holdings that have a

large residential value. Land

values have become difficult to call

with certain areas achieving well

over £10,000 per acre whilst in

other areas where there is little

neighbouring interest sees little

enthusiasm in paying over £7,000

per acre. Roll over money is again

to the fore with a number of

purchasers still looking. As long

as supply remains so tight I can

see no reason for prices to fall

even though commodity prices

appear to be under pressure.”

Victoria Pocock MRICS, Carter

Jonas, Shrewsbury, 01939

210101 – “Demand for good

quality bare land in Shropshire

continues to be strong but at

this time of year supply is not

great with the majority holding

off marketing until spring. The

struggle with poor milk price is

clearly having an adverse effect

on farm incomes and we are

likely to see more land and

farms to come onto the market

in spring 2015 as a result of

this. With the lead up to the

election there is likely to be

some effect for both buyers and

sellers but only time will tell on

this.”

Charles Meynell FRICS, Fisher

German LLP, Stafford, 01785

273999 – “In the right location

bare land prices for better

quality arable and grassland

have exceeded £12,000 per

acre, driven by strong

competing interest from

neighbours. Where no local

interest exists demand and

hence price is subdued. At last

there is interest in residential

farms, even where the quality of

the house and fixed equipment

is modest; location remains

key.”

William Fox Grant MRICS, Fox

Grant, Salisbury, 01722 782727

– “There is a dire shortage of

supply of farms and bare land of

any quantity. In the 25 years of

marketing farmland I can not

remember a time with such a

shortage of supply. I am looking

forward to 2015 with some

optimism as it can only improve

from last year. We have

expanded in 2014 purchasing

Peter Radish Taunton so we do

expect more supply as a result!”

Jennifer Whitton MRICS,

Howkins & Harrison, Rugby,

01788 564694 – “The second

half of 2014 has seen an

increase in land being offered,

especially smaller blocks of off-

lying bare land. Land is

generally being sold where

farmers are retiring or families

have split up. A number of

properties sold this half have

been purchased by existing

farmers and the majority of

interest has come from farmers,

both locally and nationally if

there is a house and buildings

with the land. We are also

finding that location and type of

land is having a much bigger

impact on land sales and values

and a bigger gap is being seen

between well located quality

land and badly located poor

land. Rollover relief continues to

play a big part in rising land

values which is unlikely to

change until development

ceases.”

Gareth Wall MRICS,

McCartneys LLP, Kington,

01544 230316 – “Good

productive arable and pasture

land remains a strong price. The

more marginal land on the

Welsh borders and in Wales

has eased slightly due to lower

farming income and the

forthcoming changes in the

Basic Payment Scheme

particularly in Wales. Good

arable land in the west midlands

remains a strong price with

particular interest from

businesses operating anaerobic

digesters.”

Glyn Owens FRICS,

McCartneys LLP, Knighton,

01547 528621 –“Demand will

remain strong for farmland

where there is neighbour and

local interest. Unless arable

returns improve there will be

less interest in larger blocks of

arable land. Livestock prices

appear to be firming which will

help fuel demand for grassland.”

Jack Tavernor MRICS, Strutt

and Parker, Shrewsbury ,

01743 284206 – “There

continues to be strong demand

for quality land from strong

farming businesses. Increasing

competition from non-food

producing uses is also

underpinning the strong values

seen. Demand overall,

particularly from commercial

farmers is not being satisfied by

the supply coming forward and I

don’t anticipate this supply and

demand balance changing any

time soon. The dairy industry in

particular will experience tough times

but I don’t expect this to mean a

significant amount of extra land coming

forwards.”

Yorkshire & Humberside

Sam Johnson MRICS, Carter Jonas,

Harrogate, 07768 658217 – “General

scarcity continues to be the prevailing

factor responsible for the preservation

of high values. The market however is

incredibly discerning and values vary

greatly across the region and as such,

an appreciation of the local market is

key. It has been clearly demonstrated

that there are good quality purchasers

willing to pay a premium for large,

good quality, commercial blocks of

agricultural land and well equipped

units. Properties with sporting value in

the region are also generating

significant interest from the market.”

Ashley Dodgson MRICS, GSC Grays,

Bedale, 01677 422400 – “The land

market continues to remain robust with

demand exceeding supply albeit the

gap between prime and average land

is becoming more pronounced with

wide variances in values. However,

this does not account for an increasing

number of private/off market

transactions, which are often at

premium prices to purchasers with "roll

-over" funds or neighbouring farmers

benefiting from the synergy in owning

adjacent land. The strength in depth of

the market is mixed particularly for

poorer quality land in less sought after

areas, where interest can be limited. It

is difficult to predict the direction of the

land market in 2015 with variable

commodity prices, reduced farm

profits, the introduction of the Basic

Payment Scheme and a general

election. That said, whilst interest rates

remain at current low levels, the UK

and world population continues to grow

and favourable IHT & CGT tax regimes

remain, land should remain a popular

investment.”

8


England - National

Ben Taylor MRICS, Bidwells, Cambridge, 01223 559459

Scotland - National

Malcolm Taylor FRICS, Bell Ingram, Forfar, 01307 462516

Stewart Hamilton MRICS, Bell Ingram, Forfar, 01307 462516

Mark Mitchell FRICS, Bell Ingram Limited, Perth, 01738 621121

Alison Muir MRICS, CKD Galbraith, Ayr, 01292 292533

Rachel Myles MRICS, CKD Galbraith, Cupar, 01334 659 989

James Galbraith, MRICS, CKD Galbraith, Edinburgh, 01312 406962

Rod Christie FRICS, CKD Galbraith, Elgin,01343 546362

Mike Thompson MRICS, CKD Galbraith, Galashiels, 01896 662823

William Inglis MRICS, CKD Galbraith, Isle of Islay, 07920 273991

Colin Stewart MRICS, CKD Galbraith, Perth, 01738 448144

Charlotte Lane MRICS, CKD Galbraith, Stirling, 07899 877728

Gordon McConachie, CKD Galbraith, Aberdeen, 01224 860710

Walter Barbour FRICS, CKD Galbraith, Perth, 01738 456 069

Rhona Booth MRICS, Davidson & Robertson Rural, Forfar, 01307 490220

Stuart Sharp, GM Thopson, Stranraer, 07874 158270

James Denne MRICS, Knight Frank LLP, Lauder, 01578 722814

Jennifer Campbell MRICS, Peter Graham & Associates LLP, Avoch, 01463 811942

James Boulton MRICS, Smiths Gore, Wooler, 01668 280812

Wales - National

Tim Main MRICS, Balfours, Shrewsbury, 01743 353511

Iwan Jones MRICS, BJP, Carmarthen, 01267 236363

Eifion Bibby MRICS, DMPC, Colwyn Bay, 01492 510360

Kathryn Perkins MRICS, Edward Perkins Chartered Surveyors, Haverfordwest, 01437 760730

James Andrews MRICS, Llewellyn Humphreys, Carmarthen, 01267 237812

Gareth Wall MRICS, McCartneys LLP, Kington, 01544 230316

Glyn Owens FRICS, McCartneys LLP, Knighton, 01547 528621

Victoria Rees MRICS, Owen and Owen, Pembroke, 01646 621500

David Powell MRICS, Powells, Monmouth, 01600 714140

Gareth Lloyd FRICS, Watts & Morgan, Cowbridge, 01446 774152

Eastern

DH Sinfield FRICS, Alexanders, Huntingdon, 01480 432220

Barry Hawkins, Barry L Hawkins , Downham Market, 01366 387180


Jim Major FRICS, Brown&Co, Kings Lynn, 07768 465748

Mark Russell MRICS, Carter Jonas, Cambridge, 01223 346 628

Chris Leney MRICS, Robinson & Hall, Ipswich, 01473 835253

Adrian Wilson MRICS, Savills, Cambridge, 01223 347231

Giles Allen MRICS, Strutt & Parker, Ipswich, 01473 214841

Tom Goodley MRICS, Strutt & Parker, Norwich, 01603 617431

Tim Fagan MRICS, Strutt and Parker, Chelmsford, 07702 199588

East Midlands

Rupert Harrison FRICS, Andrew Granger, Loughborough, 01509 243720

Julia Hayhurst MRICS, Bagshaws, Uttoxeter, 01889 562811


Elizabeth Allen MRICS, Brown & Co, Spalding, 01775 717894

Matthew Allen MRICS, Fisher German, Banbury, 01295 271555

Ian Calverley MRICS, Fisher German, Retford, 01777 861 927

Robert Hurst FRICS, Fisher German, Newark, 01636 642504

Jennifer Whitton MRICS, Howkins & Harrison, Rugby, 01788 564694

Rupert West FRICS, King West, Market Harborough, 01858 435970

Peter Horne FRICS, Merryweathers, Doncaster, 07836 310565

Camilla Shipley, Pygott & Crone, Sleaford, 01529 414555

Andrew Pearce MRICS, Savills, Lincoln, 01522 508933

Charlotte Smithson MRICS, Smiths Gore, Lincoln, 01522 507310

Sam Holt MRICS, Strutt & Parker LLP, London, 02073 185172

North East

David Coulson FRICS, Addisons Chartered Surveyors, Crook, 07779 623371

Sam Johnson MRICS, Carter Jonas, Harrogate, 07768 658217

Neal Thompson FRICS, Edwin Thompson, Berwick upon Tweed, 01289 304432

Ashley Dodgson MRICS, GSC Grays, Bedale, 01677 422400

James Boulton MRICS, Smiths Gore, Wooler, 01668 280812

William Douglas MRICS, Smiths Gore, York, 01904 756303

Charles Raine FRICS, YoungsRPS, Hexham, 07730 546422

North West

Graham Bowcock MRICS, Berrys, Northwich, 01606 818953

Craig Brough MRICS, H&H Land & Property, Carlisle, 01228 406260

Andrew Coney MRICS, P Wilson & Company, Preston, 01772 882277

Jo Edwards MRICS, PFKLand Agency, Penrith, 01768 866611

Tony Rimmer MRICS, Rostons, Chester, 01829 773000


South East

Julian Sayers FRICS, Adkin, Wantage, 07850 397667

Russell Parkes MRICS, Batcheller Monkhouse, Pulborough, 01798 872081

Matthew Peters FRICS, Bruton Knowles, Gloucester, 01452 880184

Richard Liddiard FRICS, Carter Jonas, Newbury, 01635 263012

Ed Smith, MRICS, Carter Jonas LLP, Oxford, 01865 404443

Martin Allen, MRICS, Elgars, Canterbury, 01227 720557

Matthew Allen MRICS, Fisher German, Banbury, 01295 271555

Rowan Allan MRICS, HJ Burt, Steyning, 01903 879488

Andrew Brown MRICS, Marriotts Property LLP, Faringdon, 01367 242422

Matthew Sudlow MRICS, Strutt & Parker LLP, London, 02073 184668

Simon Male MRICS, Woolley & Wallis, Salisbury, 01722 424515

South West

Richard Greasby MRICS, Butler Sherborn, Cirenecster, 01285 883740

Kit Harding FRICS, Carter Jonas, Bath, 01225 747271

David Kivell FRICS, D R Kivell and Partners, Tavistock, 01822 810810

William Fox Grant MRICS, Fox Grant, Salisbury, 01722 782727

Martyn Venner MRICS, Greenslade Taylor Hunt, Bridgwater, 01278 425555

Will Handel MRICS, Greenslade Taylor Hunt, Honiton, 01404 46222

Richard Webber MRICS, Greenslade Taylor Hunt, South Molton, 01769 574500

Charles Lucas FRICS, Humberts, Marlborough, 01672 519111

Stuart Hext MRICS, Luscombe Maye, Kingsbridge, 01548 857474

Andrew Brown MRICS, Marriotts Property LLP, Faringdon, 01367 242422

Ryan Kuszek MRICS, National Trust, Bristol, 01275 378440

Philip Hodgkin MRICS, Smiths Gore, Taunton, 01823 446986

Andrew Dodds MRICS, Stags, South Molton, 01769 575244

Stuart Gray MRICS, Strutt & Parker LLP, St Albans, 01727 738297

Contributor details


9

Adrian Cannon MRICS, Tayler & Fletcher LLP, Bourton-on-the-Water, 01451 820913

Tom Pullin MRICS, Voyce Pullin, Bristol, 01454 269486

Simon Male MRICS, Woolley & Wallis, Salisbury, 01722 424515

West Midlands

Julia Hayhurst MRICS, Bagshaws, Uttoxeter, 01889 562811

Tim Main MRICS, Balfours, Shrewsbury, 01743 353511

Mike Taylor FRICS, Barbers Rural, Market Drayton, 01630 692500

Jeremy Jehan MRICS, Brightwells, Hereford, 01432 261325

Matthew Peters FRICS, Bruton Knowles, Gloucester, 01452 880184

Victoria Pocock MRICS, Carter Jonas, Shrewsbury, 01939 210101

Charles Meynell FRICS, Fisher German LLP, Stafford, 01785 273999

William Fox Grant MRICS, Fox Grant, Salisbury, 01722 782727

Richard Banks MRICS, G Herbert Banks, Great Witley, 01299 896968

Jennifer Whitton, MRICS, Howkins & Harrison, Rugby, 01788 564694

Gareth Wall MRICS, McCartneys LLP, Kington, 01544 230316

Glyn Owens FRICS, McCartneys LLP, Knighton, 01547 528621

Jack Tavernor MRICS, Strutt and Parker, Shrewsbury, 01743 284206

Yorkshire & Humberside

Sam Johnson MRICS, Carter Jonas, Harrogate, 07768 658217

Ashley Dodgson MRICS, GSC Grays, Bedale, 01677 422400

Peter Horne FRICS, Merryweathers, Doncaster, 07836 310565


Contributor details

10


RICS/ RAU Rural Market Survey

Management

RICS

Josh Miller

Senior Economist

T: +44 (0)20 7334 3777

[email protected]

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

Parliament Square

London

SW1P 3AD

RAU

Diane Martin MRICS, FAAV Senior Lecturer in Valuation T: + 44 (0)1285 652531 [email protected]

Royal Agricultural University

Stroud Road

Cirencester

Gloucestershire

GL7 6JS

About the Royal Agricultural University (RAU)

Founded in 1845, the Royal Agricultural University (RAU) is the oldest agricultural college in the English speaking world and has a long-standing, global reputation in education, research and consultancy.

The RAU currently provides a unique learning environment for approximately 1000 students from over 40 different countries. The College offers almost 30 different degree courses in disciplines as varied as agriculture, business, equine, food, and land and property management.

Since the 1930s, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has accredited courses at the RAU. Today, the College offers a choice of five degree programmes at undergraduate and postgraduate levels within its School of Real Estate and Land Management, from where it continues to train and educate the future leaders of the land and property professions.

The RAU has always pioneered research as part of its academic output and also has an established track record of working with government, institutional and private sector clients, utilising the expertise of its academic resources to deliver high quality contract research and consultancy.

About the RICS/ RAU Rural Market Survey

The statistics provided by RICS members in England, Wales and Scotland, are collated by the Royal

Agricultural University, Cirencester.

rural market survey h2 2014-summary

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