Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 1

Contact: Tom Swiss (773) 485-9477

April 1, 2015

43rd Ward: Smith +12

Property tax concerns trumping parking density in Lincoln Park

CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-question poll for Aldertrack on Wednesday, April 1, 2015 for

43rd Ward Alderman with 440 respondents.

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters.

Caroline Vickrey 192 43.6%

Michelle Smith 248 56.4% Margin of Error +/- 4.77% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS

Incumbents are difficult to beat in Chicago without a catalyst. Early polling indicated the residential

development of Children’s Memorial might have been that catalyst, but Smith has a double-digit lead

with less than a week. The risk of increased property taxes (opposed by Smith) appears more important

than the vehicle density issue created by the residential conversion of Children’s Memorial. Vickrey has

indicated increased property taxes could be a possibility.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further

development in this race.

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 2

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote

based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections,

likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections.

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 229 52.0%

Female 211 48.0%

Respondents by Age

Age 18 – 30 40 9.1%

Age 31 - 45 122 27.7%

Age 46 - 64 122 27.7%

Age 65 plus 156 35.5%

Respondents by Zipcode

60610 Count 72

60614 Count 368