rte frontline and irish daily mail survey november 2012

1 RTE Frontline/Irish Daily Mail

Budget 2013: Fears & Hopes Amárach Briefing for RTE Frontline/Irish Daily Mail

November 2012

For the second year running, RTE Frontline and the Irish Daily Mail have commissioned Amárach Research to examine the mood of the nation ahead of Budget 2013. The findings are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults in Ireland, interviewed online in November 2012. With economic uncertainly increasing rather than decreasing, we have examined the current financial circumstances of the nation’s households and families, and their preferences for tax and spending changes in the forthcoming budget. This report summarises the main findings including comparisons with key findings from the 2011 study.

RTE Frontline/

Irish Daily Mail

1. Under Pressure

consumer behaviour

2. Debt Problems

mortgages & loans

3. Balancing Act

Budget 2013

1. Under Pressure

consumer behaviour


Feeling the Pinch

Source: Amárach Research, November 2011/12

%

Decreased

2011

%

Decreased

2012

All Adults 68 68

Males 65 69

Females 70 70

18-24s 37 46

25-34s 62 62

35-44s 78 74

45-54s 86 84

55+ 74 75 Q. Would you say your level of disposable income has

increased or decreased over the last year?

39%

29%

18%

11%

4%

40%

28%

19%

10%

2%

decreasedsignificantly

decreasedslightly

no changeeither way

increasedslightly

increasedsignificantly

Incomes Under Pressure 2011 vs 2012

2011 2012


Money Remaining

Source: Amárach Research, November 2012

(not asked in 2011)

Q. Typically how much money do you have left at the end of the month

(assuming you are paid weekly please give the average of monthly),

before your next wage or salary payment?

%

Nothing

Left 2012

All Adults 31

Males 27

Females 36

18-24s 22

25-34s 30

35-44s 35

45-54s 36

55+ 26

31%

21%

35%

7% 7%

Nothing € 1 to 99 € 100 to 499 €500+ Refused

Money remaining at the end of the month


Deep Impact


Q. Have any of the following happened/occurred in your household in the

past 12 months?

%

None 2011

%

None 2012

All Adults 31 34

Males 28 29

Females 34 39

18-24s 44 43

25-34s 26 31

35-44s 23 23

45-54s 22 25

55+ 38 43

31%

9%

15% 19%

54%

34%

11%

20% 20%

46%

none of these missing amortgage

repayment

buyinggroceries oncredit due to

insufficientfunds

missing aloan

repayment

a reduction inincome due

to taxincreases

Past Experiences

2011 2012


Making An Effort


%

Strong

2011

%

Strong

2012

All Adults 56 66

Males 52 62

Females 60 70

18-24s 38 49

25-34s 58 67

35-44s 60 71

45-54s 75 75

55+ 51 68

Q. What effort, if any, have you made in the past 12 months

to reduce you household expenditure?

56%

38%

6%

66%

30%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

A strongeffort

A slighteffort

No effort atall

Cutting Expenditure 2011 vs 2012

2011 2012


Cut Leaders


Q. In which of the following areas, if any, have you reduced household expenditure in the past 12 months?

86% 83%

80%

74%

58%

26%

81% 77%

71%

65%

37%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

leisureexpenses

groceries &clothing

phone &energy

car & travel insurance childcare &schooling

Areas of Reduced Expenditure 2011 vs 2012

2011 2012


Bridging the Gap


%

Family

2011

%

Family

2012

All Adults 32 35

Males 31 33

Females 34 38

18-24s 42 52

25-34s 46 52

35-44s 39 41

45-54s 30 24

55+ 12 15

Q. Over the past year, have you done any of the following?

32%

24%

9% 5%

47%

35%

26%

9% 4%

45%

borrowedmoneyfrom

friends orfamily

dependedmore on

credit cardto pay bills

borrowedmoneyfrom amoneylender

notdeclaredincome toavoid tax

none ofthese

Making Ends Meet 2011 VS 2012

2011 2012


Missed meals due to lack of money

% Missed

Meals

Total 32

Males 32

Females 33

18-24s 47

25-34s 42

35-44s 36

45-54s 25

55+ 18 Q. Have you missed a meal because of lack of money?

32%

68%

Yes No

Source: Amárach Research, November 2012

(not asked in 2011)


Savings Habits


Q. Do you save regularly?

48% 52%

37%

29% 27%

25%

18% 15%

34%

55%

45%

38%

33% 33% 33%

19% 16%

27%

don't saveregularly

saveregularly

dippedinto

savings topay for:

groceries& clothing

phone &energy

bills

car &travel

expenses

insurance leisureexpenses

childcare&

schooling

none ofthese

Rainy Days 2011 VS 2012

Q. All who save regularly: Have you had to dip into savings over the last year to help pay for any of the following?

2011 2012


Future Concerns


Q. How concerned that the following might happen in the next 12 months?

66% 65%

45% 42%

39% 38%

33%

70%

75%

49% 47%

42% 44%

34%

Income cut forself or partner

Income reductiondue to taxincreases

Reduced hoursfor self or partner

Redundancy forself or partner

Missing a loanrepayment

Buying grocerieson credit due to

lack of funds

Missing amortgagerepayment

Concerns for Next 12 Months 2011 vs 2012

2011 2012


Difficulty Coping


€50

decrease

%

Easily

2011

%

Easily

2012

All Adults 24 21

Males 28 24

Females 20 17

18-24s 30 16

25-34s 26 19

35-44s 13 19

45-54s 16 22

55+ 31 23 Q. We would now like you to tell us the likely impact that the following

scenarios would have on your after tax income:

€50/100/150 monthly decrease in income

24%

12%

8%

21%

11%

8%

€50 monthly decrease



2011 Easily 2012 Easily

2. Debt Problems

mortgages & loans


Negative Equity


%

Negative

Equity

2011

%

Negative

Equity

2012

All

Mortgage 22 30

Males 26 32

Females 17 28

18-24s 11 17

25-34s 33 55

35-44s 30 34

45-54s 14 24

55+ 15 18

Q. Base – all who pay mortgage: Now thinking about the value of

your home today, do you think it is worth more than you currently

owe on your mortgage, about the same as you currently owe on

your mortgage, or less than you currently owe on your mortgage?

50%

19% 22%

9%

42%

18%

30%

10%

value of homegreater than

mortgage

value of homesame asmortgage

value of homeless thanmortgage

don't know

2011 2012


Missed Payments


Q. Have you missed any mortgage repayments in the past 12 months?

81%

19%

73%

26%

74%

25%

70%

27%

Have not missedany mortgagerepayments

Have missed oneor more mortgage

repayments

Have not missedany other loan

repayments

Have missed atleast one loan

repayment

Q. In the past 12 months have you missed a repayment on any other debt (e.g.: car loan, utility bill, phone bill etc)?

Base: All responsible for paying mortgage on the home

Average

number of

monthly

repayments

missed in

2012 = 3.9

2011 = 3.3

2011 2012


Missed Payments


Q. If you have missed a mortgage repayment, have you been contacted by your mortgage provider?

Q. If so, how were you contacted?

19%

77% 79% 72%

8% 12%

87%

69% 65%

9%

Not contactedby mortgage

provider

Contacted bymortgageprovider

If contacted,how?

Post Phone Email

Mortgage Provider Contact

Base: All mortgage payees who have missed a repayment in past 12 months

2011 2012

3. Balancing Act

Budget 2013


Budget Balance 2011 VS 2012


%

Tax

Increases

2011

%

Tax

Increases

2012

All Adults 33 34

Males 32 34

Females 33 33

18-24s 38 36

25-34s 33 32

35-44s 31 32

45-54s 32 31

55+ 31 35 Q. What do you think should be the share of tax increases

and spending cuts in meeting the requirements of the

forthcoming budget?

33% 34%

67% 66%

2011 2012

Increase taxes Cut spending


Closing the Budget Gap 2011 VS 2012


Q. For each tax or cut please say whether think the government should go ahead or not with each measure

76%

41% 39% 39% 39% 38%

35% 33% 33%

23% 20%

16%

70%

34% 31% 30%

34% 35%

31% 33%

21% 20% 17%

12%

Increase topincome tax

rate

Cut socialwelfare rates

tounemployed

Cut singleparents

allowance

Introduce aseptic tank

charge

Reintroduceuniversity

fees

Introducewater rates

forhouseholds

Cut childrensbenefit

Introduceproperty tax

forhouseholds

Increase rateof VAT

Cut in statepension level

Increasebottom

income taxrate

Increasecharges for

doctorvisits/A&E

Go ahead 2011 Go ahead 2012


Attitudes to Government Spending I

Q:Suppose the government had to choose between the following , which do you think it should choose?

55%

30%

15%

55%

36%

6%

Keep taxes and spendingon these services at the

same level as now

Increase taxes and spendmore on health, education

and social welfare

Reduce Taxes and spendless on health, education

and social welfare

Ireland UK

Source: Amárach Research, November 2011/12 , British Social Attitudes No. 29


Attitudes to Government Spending II

Q. Some people think that there should be more government spending on social welfare, while other people disagree. For

each of the groups I read out please say whether you would like to see more or less government spending on them than now.

42%

30%

15% 13%

75%

53%

15%

29%

Benefits for people whocare for the sick or disabled

Benefits for disabled peoplewho cannot work

Benefits for unemployedpeople

Benefits for single parents

% 'spend more' Ireland % 'spend more' UK



Attitudes to Government Spending III

Q:Who do you think should mainly be responsible for ensuring that people have enough to live on if the become

unemployed? Q:Which of the two statements comes lose to your own view ?

62%

28%

9%

1%

59%

33%

5% 3%

Mainly thegovernment

Mainly a personthemselves and

their family

Mainly apersons

employer

Don't know

Ireland UK42%

26%

32%

62%

19%

8%

Benefits forunemployed people

are too high anddiscourage them from

finding jobs

Benefits forunemployed people

are too low andcause hardship

Neither

Ireland UK



Attitudes to Government Spending IV


Q:Please say whether you agree or disagree with the following statements ?

50%

67%

54%

37%

If benefits weren't so generouspeople would learn to stand on

their own two feet

Government should redistributeincome from the better off to those

less well off

Ireland Agree UK Agree

%

Irish

agree 1

%

Irish

agree 2

All

Recipients 50 67

Males 50 68

Females 51 65

18-24s 59 53

25-34s 49 61

35-44s 51 67

45-54s 46 69

55+ 49 78


Main Use of Child Benefit


Q. What do you do with your child benefit payments?

Base: all who receive child benefit

53% 50%

42%

20%

53% 52%

33%

15%

spend ongroceries etc

spend on thechildren

use to paybills

put insavingsaccount

%

Save

Benefit

2011

%

Save

Benefit

2012

All

Recipients 20 15

Males 25 20

Females 16 11

18-24s 28 26

25-34s 22 22

35-44s 17 11

45-54s 18 15

55+ 30 5

2011 2012


The Budget & Child Benefit


Q. If cuts were to be made to child benefit payments in the

upcoming budget how would you prefer it was done?

Base: all who receive child benefit

63%

20%

13%

4%

64%

16% 16%

1% 2%

Introducemeanstesting

decreaseaverageamount

tax just likeother income

other No Cuts

%

Means

Test 2011

%

Means

Test 2012

All

Recipients 63 64

Males 61 65

Females 64 63

18-24s 61 74

25-34s 70 59

35-44s 69 69

45-54s 50 57

55+ 43 74

2011 2012

About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 to explore your path

to recovery and success through research:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

rte frontline and irish daily mail survey november 2012

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