rtÉ/behaviour & attitudes european election exit polla face-to-face exit poll was conducted...

J.5582

RTÉ/Behaviour & Attitudes European Election Exit Poll

May 23rd 2014

Prepared for:

2

Introduction

3

Introduction

● This report sets out the findings of an Exit Poll commissioned by RTÉ and carried out by Behaviour & Attitudes. The poll was conducted among a sample of 3,081 voters nationwide, interviewed immediately after they had voted in the Election on Friday, 23rd

May, 2014.

● The sample was spread throughout all three European constituencies and undertaken at 175 polling stations. Interviews were conducted face-to-face with randomly selected individuals – throughout the hours of polling from 7am to 10pm in accordance with the 1992 Electoral Act (no interviews took place within 100 yards of a polling station).

● The accuracy level is estimated to be plus or minus 1.7% at a national level, and plus or minus 3.4% at a constituency level. Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to RTÉ and Behaviour & Attitudes.

4

Research Methodology

● A face-to-face Exit Poll was conducted among voters immediately after leaving polling stations on European Election day, Friday, 23rd May, 2013.

● An effective sample of 3,081 voters was interviewed.

● The Poll was undertaken in all three European constituencies.

● 175 polling stations were sampled, distributed proportionate to population within each constituency:

No. of seats No. of Pollingstations

No. of interviews

Statistical margin of

error

Dublin 3 61 1070 ±3.06%

Midlands North West

4 56 970 ±3.21%

South 4 58 1041 ±3.09%

Total 11 175 3,081 ±1.8%

● Specific polling stations within constituency were selected randomly.

5

Voter Selection

Selection of Respondents (Voters)

● In accordance with the 1992 Electoral Act, no interviews took place within 100 yards of a polling station.

● Interviewing was continuous throughout each time-period.

● In the event of refusal at contact, the interviewer noted gender, approximate age and social class, and sought to replace that person at the first available opportunity with a person sharing similar demographic characteristics.

6

Note on Weighting

Two levels of weighting have been applied to this data to ensure accurate reflection of the electorate.

1. Regional Weighting

To correct for the regional imbalance in the sample design the constituency totals have been re-weighted to the known electorate size in each constituency as the table below shows:

Dublin Midlands-North-West

South

Electorate 799,975 1,175,437 1,205,260

% weighted 25.2 36.9 37.9

2. Demographic WeightingThis is a random probability sample survey and should reflect the actual profile of the turnout on the day. However, sampling bias can always occur and we have applied corrective demographic weights to minimise this effect. In practice, given the large sample size these weights only impact on first preference vote by no more than one percentage point in almost all cases. Nonetheless even marginal weighting in our view provides a more precise sample output.

7

Weighting x Population

18+ Population Achieved Weighted

Gender % % %

Male 51 54 51

Female 49 46 49

Age % % %

18 – 24 12 5 7

25 – 34 22 13 18

35 – 49 29 32 30

50 – 64 21 31 26

65+ 16 19 19

Class % % %

AB 13 19 17

C1 28 30 30

C2 21 19 18

DE 31 24 27

F 7 7 8

The table below indicates the weights used.

8

European Elections 2014:Dublin Constituency

9

First Preference Vote: European Election: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

24

11

8

1

12

14

7

14

6

1

1

0

Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin

Nessa Childers, Independent

Emer Costello, Labour Party

Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland

Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil

Brian Hayes, Fine Gael

Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party

Eamon Ryan, Green Party

Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance

Jim Tallon, Independent

Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland

Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua

% First Preference

Vote

Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.

10


TotalGender Age Class

Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE

% % % % % % % % %

Lynn Boylan (Lynn NíBhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin

24 26 23 29 26 27 21 14 41

Nessa Childers, Independent 11 7 14 9 11 8 13 13 8

Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 7 9 2 8 7 9 8 8


1 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 2

Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 13 11 13 9 8 17 14 10

Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 16 12 11 16 14 14 17 9


7 7 8 7 9 9 6 8 7

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 14 13 15 15 16 11 19 5


6 5 8 9 3 8 6 5 9

Jim Tallon, Independent 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1


1 1 0 2 - 1 1 1 1

Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 0 - - - - 0 0 -


11


Region

TotalCity

NorthCity

South

Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown

FingalSouth Dublin

% % % % % %

Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin 24 32 21 14 24 27

Nessa Childers, Independent 11 8 10 15 10 13

Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 8 11 9 6 6

Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 3 0 - - 2

Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 11 9 13 20 8

Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 9 15 16 15 16

Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party 7 14 4 4 8 6

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 8 18 21 12 12

Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance 6 5 11 4 3 8

Jim Tallon, Independent 1 1 1 1 2 0

Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 - 2 1 1

Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 0 - - - -


12


Local Election Party Support – First Preference

Total Fine Gael LabourFianna

FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin

24 1 3 4 86 3 14 12

Nessa Childers, Independent 11 11 9 5 2 9 20 7

Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 10 39 3 0 3 4 1

Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 - - - 1 - 3 2

Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 7 8 64 1 5 7 5

Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 58 12 5 2 7 6 1


7 1 4 3 3 4 18 38

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 10 23 9 2 67 10 3

Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance 6 2 3 4 2 1 14 30

Jim Tallon, Independent 1 1 - 3 - - 2 -


1 - - - - - 2 1

Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 - - - - - 0 -


13

European Election Second Preference Support Levels Versus European Election 1st Preference Support: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections

Second Preference

Total

European Election – 1st Preference

Lynn Boylan

Sinn Féin

NessaChilders Indep-endent

EmerCostello Labour Party

Thomas DarcyDirect

Democ-racy

Ireland

Mary Fitzpatrick Fianna

Fáil

Brian Hayes

Fine Gael

Paul Murphy Stop the Water Tax/

Socialist Party

EamonRyan Green Party

BridSmith People Before Profit

Alliance

Jim Tallon

Independent

Raymond Patrick

WhiteheadDirect

Democracy

Ireland

Damon Matthew

Wise Fís Nua

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

Lynn Boylan (Lynn NíBhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin

6 - 9 1 23 3 4 23 6 14 9 - -

Nessa Childers, Independent

12 11 - 15 19 14 12 11 18 10 8 10 100

Emer Costello, Labour Party

9 5 6 - - 7 24 1 21 4 10 - -


1 2 - - - 1 1 1 1 4 - 35 -

Mary Fitzpatrick, FiannaFáil

5 4 10 9 - - 8 - 6 - - 12 -

Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 9 2 15 23 - 14 - 2 22 6 8 - -


11 23 11 4 24 7 1 - 5 29 - 12 -

Eamon Ryan, Green Party

12 6 14 25 - 19 27 5 - 8 7 - -


10 21 8 1 8 1 1 42 4 - - 9 -

Jim Tallon, Independent 2 2 4 - - 4 2 1 1 3 - 11 -


1 0 1 1 26 - - - - 3 23 - -

Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua

0 1 - - - - - - 2 - - - -

None/no second pref 21 22 22 21 - 30 20 14 15 19 36 11 -


14

Reasons for First Preference European Election Candidate Support: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections

Main Influencing Candidate Factors

Total


Lynn Boylan

Sinn Féin



Thomas DarcyDirect

Democ-racy

Ireland


Fáil

Brian Hayes

Fine Gael


Socialist Party



Alliance

Jim Tallon

Independent

Raymond Patrick

WhiteheadDirect

Democracy

Ireland

Damon Matthew

Wise Fís Nua

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

Personality/ Qualities 30 20 51 27 19 33 32 16 39 28 16 12 -

Party 33 42 14 49 26 44 41 18 20 16 25 36 -

Policies 30 31 27 22 38 16 17 60 35 39 43 52 100

Party Leader 3 2 1 1 - 1 5 3 2 9 - - -

None 5 5 8 1 8 6 4 3 5 8 16 - -

Don't know 0 1 - - 8 - - 1 - - - - -

Q.2Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the European Parliament elections?

15

Reasons for First Preference Vote in European Election Party Support: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections


Total

European Election Party Support

Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % %

Personality/ Qualities 30 32 27 33 20 39 32 21

Party 33 41 49 44 42 20 17 17

Policies 30 17 22 16 31 35 41 51

Party Leader 3 5 1 1 2 2 3 5

None 5 4 1 6 5 5 7 5

Don't know 0 - - - 1 - 1 1


16

Local Election Versus European Election First Preference: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

Local Election First Preference

Vote


TotalFine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 16 66 20 9 1 12 8 3

Labour 12 10 57 8 2 21 7 6

Fianna Fáil 12 5 4 62 2 8 6 6

Sinn Féin 21 3 1 1 75 3 7 8

Green Party 6 3 3 3 1 31 3 2

All Independents/ Others

32 13 15 17 18 23 68 73

Socialist Party/ People Before ProfitAlliance

9 1 1 3 4 2 24 42

Don’t know 1 - - - 1 1 1 1

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections?

17

Local Election Versus 2011 General Election: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections

Q.5Q.10

To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the European elections? To which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in the 2011 General Election?


Party Vote Total

General Election 2011

Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

Don’t know

Did not vote

% % % % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 16 39 7 5 - 3 4 - 18 16

Labour 12 9 27 10 1 13 3 3 13 10

Fianna Fáil 12 9 3 54 2 2 6 - 8 9

Sinn Féin 21 9 21 13 82 5 7 4 14 26

Green Party 6 5 7 - 1 53 6 3 1 9


32 28 35 17 14 21 75 90 43 29


9 4 12 6 4 - 30 64 8 7

18

Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – Candidate Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

Q.3In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?

Factors ofImportance

Total


Lynn Boylan

Sinn Féin



Thomas DarcyDirect

Democ-racy

Ireland


Fáil

Brian Hayes

Fine Gael


Socialist Party



Alliance

Jim Tallon

Independent

Raymond Patrick

Whitehead Direct Democra

cy Ireland

Damon Matthew

Wise Fís Nua

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this constituency in Europe

85 87 90 82 92 81 85 88 80 92 92 80 -

I wanted someone with the experience to represent Ireland/this constituency in Europe

72 63 74 82 23 69 89 67 84 63 33 47 100

I wanted to protest against the Government.

48 78 48 22 93 43 13 71 25 66 75 79 100

I wanted to protest against the EU and its policies towards Ireland

36 59 38 15 64 25 15 50 17 51 51 57 -

None 2 87 90 82 92 81 85 88 80 92 92 80 -

19

Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections


Factors of Importance Total



Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % %


85 85 82 81 87 80 90 90


72 89 82 69 63 84 65 65


48 13 22 43 78 25 62 69


36 15 15 25 59 17 46 50

None 2 3 3 4 2 3 1 1

20

Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections


Factors of Importance

Total


Lynn Boylan

Sinn Féin



Thomas DarcyDirect

Democ-racy

Ireland


Fáil

Brian Hayes

Fine Gael


Socialist Party



Alliance

Jim Tallon

Independent

Raymond Patrick

WhiteheadDirect

Democracy

Ireland

Damon Matthew

Wise Fís Nua

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice.

30 42 32 21 36 31 15 32 21 35 42 12 -

The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers

20 32 19 18 - 24 13 14 11 23 11 10 -

The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams

20 32 23 11 27 18 15 10 17 25 18 - -

The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout

33 38 31 27 11 28 41 31 27 33 33 21 -

The forthcoming introduction of water charges

55 83 59 25 82 52 21 80 27 84 69 42 -

Reduced unemployment figures

44 61 34 45 42 36 45 34 32 49 51 25 -

The removal of some discretionary medical cards

55 80 61 35 82 55 24 72 29 76 85 22 100

The introduction of a Property Tax

51 79 56 24 57 43 22 73 27 70 61 31 100

None 17 5 12 25 - 26 25 8 36 5 7 43 -

21

Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections





Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % %


30 15 21 31 42 21 32 33


20 13 18 24 32 11 17 18


20 15 11 18 32 17 19 17


33 41 27 28 38 27 31 32


55 21 25 52 83 27 71 82


44 45 45 36 61 32 38 40


55 24 35 55 80 29 68 74


51 22 24 43 79 27 63 72

None 17 25 25 26 5 36 10 7

22

Satisfaction with Government – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

Satisfaction with

GovernmentTotal


Lynn Boylan

Sinn Féin



Thomas DarcyDirect

Democ-racy

Ireland


Fáil

Brian Hayes

Fine Gael


Socialist Party



Alliance

Jim Tallon

Independent

Raymond Patrick

WhiteheadDirect

Democracy

Ireland

Damon Matthew

Wise Fís Nua

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

Satisfied with the way the government is running the country

26 5 17 38 7 20 69 7 44 9 17 15 -

Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country

70 92 78 53 93 77 27 93 49 90 83 85 100

Don’t know 4 3 5 9 - 4 5 - 6 1 - - -

23

Satisfaction with Government – European Election Party SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections


Satisfaction with

GovernmentTotal



Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %


26 69 38 20 5 44 12 8


70 27 53 77 92 49 86 91

Don’t know 4 5 9 4 3 6 2 1

24

Economic Outlook – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

Q.12Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?

Economic Outlook Total


Lynn Boylan

Sinn Féin



Thomas DarcyDirect

Democ-racy

Ireland


Fáil

Brian Hayes

Fine Gael


Socialist Party



Alliance

Jim Tallon

Independent

Raymond Patrick

WhiteheadDirect

Democracy

Ireland

Damon Matthew

Wise Fís Nua

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting better

44 22 40 63 6 43 72 28 69 22 32 70 -

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has stayed the same

30 31 34 26 42 33 21 47 21 31 18 30 -

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting worse

26 46 26 11 52 23 7 24 10 47 50 - 100

25

Economic Outlook – European Election Party SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections


View of Economy Total



Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %


44 72 63 43 22 69 32 25


30 21 26 33 31 21 36 40


26 7 11 23 46 10 32 35

26

Household Financial Situation – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

Q.13Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?

Household Financial

SituationTotal


Lynn Boylan

Sinn Féin



Thomas DarcyDirect

Democ-racy

Ireland


Fáil

Brian Hayes

Fine Gael


Socialist Party



Alliance

Jim Tallon

Independent

Raymond Patrick

Whitehead Direct Democra

cy Ireland

Damon Matthew

Wise Fís Nua

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting better

13 4 11 13 - 11 25 10 26 4 16 15 -

The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has stayed the same

41 33 44 55 23 40 47 43 41 38 32 64 -

The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting worse

46 62 45 32 77 49 28 48 33 59 52 21 100

27

Household Financial Situation – European Election Party SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections


Household Financial

SituationTotal



Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % %


13 25 13 11 4 26 9 7


41 47 55 40 33 41 41 40


46 28 32 49 62 33 50 53

28

Dublin ConstituencyInterpretation & Analysis

29

Interpretation & Analysis

Reduced to just a three seat constituency since 2009, Dublin was always going to be the most hard-fought of all three Euro constituencies.

Indeed, in the Behaviour & Attitudes/Sunday Times pre-election Opinion Poll conducted in the weeks leading up to the election, a quarter of all potential voters in the constituency remained undecided as to how they would cast their vote on election day. At that stage, we noted in our commentary that the undecided bloc was heavily skewed towards potential female voters, and that it was this group which might well have the final say on the ultimate seat tally.

That poll indicated a first preference support level for Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan of 19%, followed by Brian Hayes of Fine Gael on 16%, with both of these candidates likely to be elected, with a subsequent dogfight for the final seat amongst any one of five other contenders.

Based upon our exit poll, Lynn Boylan of Sinn Féin is set to be returned as Dublin Euro MEP as early as the first count, and will most certainly top the poll in the capital.

Boylan has performed well across all age groups, amongst males and females equally, and peaks at 41% of all first preferences cast by C2DE, blue collar workers.

As many as three candidates then remain in the hunt for the final two seats – Eamon Ryan of the Green Party, Brian Hayes of Fine Gael, and Mary Fitzpatrick of Fianna Fáil.

30


Ryan’s appeal is across the board with regard to gender and age groupings, and he actually leads the field amongst white collar and professional workers. Brian Hayes, at 14% support in the exit poll, is neck and neck with Ryan, although the Fine Gael candidate will be disappointed that he has not managed to match his pre-election poll support levels on the day.

Fianna Fáil seemed to have chosen well in selecting Mary Fitzpatrick as their candidate in Dublin, given her perceived reputation as something of an anti-Fianna Fáil establishment agitator during the reign of Bertie Ahern in her own constituency of Dublin Central. However, she looks set to fall in late count eliminations.

Labour performed poorly in the initial counts and Costello did not get much of a lift from harder left eliminations, exiting relatively early. Transfers were, of course, always set to decide the final two seats.

Subsequently, Ryan pulled ahead of the pack slightly, benefiting from transfers from Murphy and later again, on the elimination of Fitzpatrick. Our exit poll deemed Ryan elected without reaching the quota and it all remaining too close to call between Childers and Hayes, but the latter perhaps edging it by a hair’s breadth. With a margin this tight, eighth count transfers in a poll - even one this large and broadly based - make it perhaps too close to call. The battle for the final seat is likely to be nail-biting.

31

European Elections 2014:Midlands North West Constituency

32

First Preference Vote: European Election: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

10

13

2

1

0

20

11

1

11

7

4

16

4

0

Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil

Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin

Mark Dearey, Green Party

T.J. Fay, Independent

Mark Fitzsimons, Independent

Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent

Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil

Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland

Marian Harkin, Independent

Jim Higgins, Fine Gael

Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party

Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael

Ronan Mullan, Independent

Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua

% First Preference

Vote


33



Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F

% % % % % % % % % %

Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10 10 9 12 9 8 11 11 9 9

Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13 15 11 14 19 9 12 9 17 8

Mark Dearey, Green Party 2 2 2 - 3 3 1 3 1 -

T.J. Fay, Independent 1 1 1 - - 2 1 1 1 1

Mark Fitzsimons, Independent 0 - 1 - - 0 0 - 1 -


20 20 20 33 23 21 15 18 23 14

Pat The Cope Gallagher, FiannaFáil

11 11 11 13 7 10 12 10 10 15


1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1

Marian Harkin, Independent 11 9 14 9 11 12 11 13 10 12

Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 8 5 3 6 6 8 6 6 11

Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party 4 3 5 1 3 5 4 4 5 -

Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16 15 17 11 12 17 18 19 11 26

Ronan Mullan, Independent 4 5 3 3 4 5 4 4 5 3


0 0 1 - 1 1 0 0 1 -


34


Region

TotalCavan, Donegal, Leitrim, Louth,

Monaghan

Galway, Mayo, Roscommon,

Sligo

Kildare, Laois,Longford, Meath,

Offaly, Westmeath

% % % %

Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10 6 4 16

Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13 18 8 13

Mark Dearey, Green Party 2 3 2 1

T.J. Fay, Independent 1 1 1 1

Mark Fitzsimons, Independent 0 - 1 0

Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent 20 12 26 19

Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil 11 25 8 5

Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 0 1

Marian Harkin, Independent 11 8 16 9

Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 2 14 3

Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party 4 3 3 5

Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16 15 11 20

Ronan Mullan, Independent 4 5 4 4

Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua 0 - 0 1

Don’t know - - - -


35




FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10 2 - 28 3 7 5 -

Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13 2 3 4 65 - 5 15

Mark Dearey, Green Party 2 1 - 0 1 66 1 11

T.J. Fay, Independent 1 - - 0 - - 3 -

Mark Fitzsimons, Independent 0 - - - 1 - 1 12

Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent 20 11 21 14 15 5 36 28

Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil 11 1 8 32 4 - 4 -

Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 - 2 - - - 3 -

Marian Harkin, Independent 11 9 14 7 5 4 21 -

Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 23 - 1 2 - 2 -

Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party 4 2 38 2 2 7 4 22

Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16 45 11 8 2 - 8 11

Ronan Mullan, Independent 4 5 2 3 1 5 7 -

Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua - - - - - - - -


36

European Election Second Preference Support Levels Versus European Election 1st Preference Support: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

Second Preference

Total


Thomas Byrne, Fianna

Fáil

Matt Carthy,

Sinn Féin


T.J. Fay, Indepen

dent

Mark Fitzsimo

ns, Indepen

dent

Luke ‘Ming’

Flanagan,

Independent

Pat The Cope

Gallagher,

FiannaFáil

Ben Gilroy, Direct

Democracy

Ireland

Marian Harkin, Indepen

dent

Jim Higgins,

Fine Gael


Mairead McGuinn

ess, Fine Gael

Ronan Mullan, Indepen

dent

Cordelia Níc

Fhearraigh, Fís Nua

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil

9 - 8 5 - - 3 53 8 5 - 2 3 8 -

Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin

5 4 - - - - 16 6 11 4 1 4 1 3 -


1 2 1 - - - 1 - - 1 - 5 1 - -

T.J. Fay, Independent 1 - 1 - - 33 0 1 - - - - - 2 34

Mark Fitzsimons, Independent

2 1 1 5 37 - 2 - 12 2 3 - 1 5 -


10 9 32 17 28 - - 9 12 18 3 3 7 10 -

Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil

8 50 8 - - - 6 - - 5 - 3 3 5 -


1 2 1 - - - 2 - - 1 - 3 - - -

Marian Harkin, Independent

12 10 6 17 27 - 20 4 17 - 12 15 14 21 21

Jim Higgins, Fine Gael

8 1 1 5 - - 2 2 - 7 - 2 41 2 -


4 2 1 21 - - 4 2 - 4 5 - 5 7 -

Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael

12 3 2 15 - - 8 5 14 25 59 28 - 17 21

Ronan Mullan, Independent

4 1 4 - - - 9 1 - 6 3 - 6 - 23


1 - 2 5 - - 1 - - - - 7 1 - -

None/no second pref 9 - 8 5 - - 3 53 8 5 - 2 3 8 -


37

Reasons for First Preference European Election Candidate Support: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections


Total



Fáil

Matt Carthy,

Sinn Féin


T.J. Fay, Indepen

dent

Mark Fitzsimo

ns, Indepen

dent

Luke ‘Ming’

Flanagan,

Independent

Pat The Cope

Gallagher,

FiannaFáil

Ben Gilroy, Direct

Democracy

Ireland


dent

Jim Higgins,

Fine Gael


MaireadMcGuinn

ess, Fine Gael


dent

Cordelia Níc


% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Personality/ Qualities

40 24 28 30 29 67 52 34 47 52 36 49 41 52 -

Party 29 51 41 30 - - 9 45 36 9 43 38 35 13 21

Policies 22 14 22 35 53 33 32 16 - 24 18 9 14 23 79

Party Leader 2 5 4 - - - 1 - - 2 1 - 3 - -

None 5 3 5 - 18 - 4 3 17 11 3 4 4 8 -

Don't know 2 2 - 5 - - 3 3 - 3 - - 3 4 -


38

Reasons for First Preference Vote in European Election Party Support: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections


Total



Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Personality/ Qualities 40 40 49 29 28 30 51 -

Party 29 37 38 48 41 30 10 -

Policies 22 15 9 15 22 35 29 -

Party Leader 2 2 - 3 4 - 1 -

None 5 4 4 3 5 - 7 -

Don't know 2 2 - 2 - 5 3 -


39

Local Election Versus European Election First Preference: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

Local Election FirstPreference Vote



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 24 73 10 4 3 10 16 73

Labour 4 2 39 2 1 - 4 2

Fianna Fáil 26 10 14 76 9 5 17 10

Sinn Féin 15 3 7 5 74 5 8 3

Green Party 2 - 3 1 - 65 1 -


29 13 27 12 12 16 54 13

Socialist Party/ People Before Profit Alliance

1 0 5 - 1 5 1 0


40

Local Election Versus 2011 General Election: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in EP Elections

Q.5Q.10



Party Vote Total


Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

Don’t know

Did not vote

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 24 56 12 5 4 - 1 - 16 18

Labour 4 3 19 2 2 - 2 - - 5

Fianna Fáil 26 12 7 68 6 7 10 - 29 29

Sinn Féin 15 9 13 7 72 - 5 - 16 12

Green Party 2 - 6 - - 85 2 - - 2


29 21 42 17 17 8 80 100 37 31


1 - - 0 1 8 2 100 4 1

41

Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – Candidate Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections



Total



Fáil

Matt Carthy,

Sinn Féin


T.J. Fay, Indepen

dent

Mark Fitzsimo

ns, Indepen

dent

Luke ‘Ming’

Flanagan,

Independent

Pat The Cope

Gallagher,

FiannaFáil

Ben Gilroy, Direct

Democracy

Ireland


dent

Jim Higgins,

Fine Gael


MaireadMcGuinn

ess, Fine Gael


dent

Cordelia Níc


% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %


86 88 89 81 82 100 90 80 84 78 83 92 85 84 100


78 82 78 62 90 67 78 83 50 76 80 80 81 59 66


46 47 68 37 82 100 59 42 51 52 19 40 20 36 79


46 39 63 39 82 100 66 45 40 47 17 28 29 42 79

None 6 6 4 14 10 - 3 7 - 8 11 - 6 5 -

42

Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections





Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %


86 84 92 84 89 81 86 -


78 81 80 83 78 62 75 -


46 20 40 44 68 37 55 -


46 26 28 42 63 39 58 -

None 6 7 - 7 4 14 5 -

43

Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections



Total



Fáil

Matt Carthy,

Sinn Féin


T.J. Fay, Indepen

dent

Mark Fitzsimo

ns, Indepen

dent

Luke ‘Ming’

Flanagan,

Independent

Pat The Cope

Gallagher,

FiannaFáil

Ben Gilroy, Direct

Democracy

Ireland


dent

Jim Higgins,

Fine Gael


MaireadMcGuinn

ess, Fine Gael


dent

Cordelia Níc


% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %


34 46 47 45 54 33 46 24 37 42 16 13 17 23 23


32 33 36 33 45 33 44 20 21 40 34 17 20 19 23


22 23 29 24 20 - 24 20 12 25 18 19 19 7 23


36 33 38 41 37 - 42 21 37 38 33 46 35 35 45


52 64 71 33 81 100 69 44 84 52 25 41 26 49 44


46 52 54 28 63 33 54 28 54 43 47 44 40 47 44


52 60 69 38 81 100 60 48 54 52 30 40 34 51 44


52 53 74 37 71 100 69 46 71 50 26 43 29 54 44

None 26 20 17 41 19 - 15 38 16 29 38 32 36 29 34

44

Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections





Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %


34 16 13 35 47 45 42 -


32 24 17 26 36 33 39 -

The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams 22 19 19 21 29 24 22 -

The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout 36 35 46 26 38 41 40 -

The forthcoming introduction of water charges 52 26 41 53 71 33 62 -

Reduced unemployment figures 46 42 44 39 54 28 50 -

The removal of some discretionary medical cards 52 33 40 54 69 38 57 -

The introduction of a Property Tax 52 28 43 49 74 37 62 -

None 26 36 32 29 17 41 21 -

45

Satisfaction with Government – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections


Satisfaction with

GovernmentTotal



Fáil

Matt Carthy,

Sinn Féin


T.J. Fay, Indepen

dent

Mark Fitzsimo

ns, Indepen

dent

Luke ‘Ming’

Flanagan,

Independent

Pat The Cope

Gallagher,

FiannaFáil

Ben Gilroy, Direct

Democracy

Ireland


dent

Jim Higgins,

Fine Gael


MaireadMcGuinn

ess, Fine Gael


dent

Cordelia Níc


% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %


27 15 6 36 9 33 15 12 14 20 68 41 64 25 21


66 80 89 45 91 67 79 81 86 71 30 54 28 68 79

Don’t know 6 5 5 19 - - 6 7 - 9 2 5 8 7 -

46

Satisfaction with Government – European Election Party SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections


Satisfaction with

GovernmentTotal



Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %


27 65 41 14 6 36 18 -


66 28 54 80 89 45 76 -

Don’t know 6 6 5 6 5 19 6 -

47

Economic Outlook – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections


Economic Outlook

Total



Fáil

Matt Carthy,

Sinn Féin


T.J. Fay, Indepen

dent

Mark Fitzsimo

ns, Indepen

dent

Luke ‘Ming’

Flanagan,

Independent

Pat The Cope

Gallagher,

FiannaFáil

Ben Gilroy, Direct

Democracy

Ireland


dent

Jim Higgins,

Fine Gael


MaireadMcGuinn

ess, Fine Gael


dent

Cordelia Níc


% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %


27 22 16 53 9 - 17 14 - 24 40 44 50 30 56


40 45 31 25 28 67 39 44 60 39 44 42 42 51 23


33 33 52 22 63 33 44 42 40 37 16 15 7 19 21

48

Economic Outlook – European Election Party SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections





Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %


27 47 44 18 16 53 20 -


40 43 42 44 31 25 41 -


33 10 15 38 52 22 39 -

49

Household Financial Situation – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections


HouseholdFinancial

SituationTotal



Fáil

Matt Carthy,

Sinn Féin


T.J. Fay, Indepen

dent

Mark Fitzsimo

ns, Indepen

dent

Luke ‘Ming’

Flanagan,

Independent

Pat The Cope

Gallagher,

FiannaFáil

Ben Gilroy, Direct

Democracy

Ireland


dent

Jim Higgins,

Fine Gael


MaireadMcGuinn

ess, Fine Gael


dent

Cordelia Níc


% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %


8 6 5 16 - - 6 2 - 6 14 5 16 6 -


53 51 40 65 55 33 49 53 31 44 67 60 63 67 79


40 43 55 19 45 67 45 45 69 50 19 35 21 27 21

50

Household Financial Situation – European Election Party SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections


Household Financial

SituationTotal



Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %


8 16 5 4 5 16 5 -


53 64 60 52 40 65 49 -


40 21 35 44 55 19 45 -

51

Midlands North West ConstituencyInterpretation & Analysis

52


A four seat constituency, Midlands-North-West sprawls from Donegal in the North down to Galway and Mayo in the West, and into Laois/Offaly and the Midlands.

Given the geographical spread of the constituency, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are running two candidates, with each emanating from different ends of the constituency.

Based upon today’s exit poll, it is a certainty that Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan will be elected as MEP for Midlands-North-West, topping the poll and making it over the line in the early stages of the count.

Flanagan’s support is steady across all socio demographic groupings, albeit peaking amongst the younger 18-34 year old cohort.

A four seat constituency, next in line to be elected will be Mairead McGuinness of Fine Gael. McGuinness will capture circa 16% of the first preference vote, and will benefit from in or around 60% of running mate Jim Higgin’s transfers upon elimination, propelling her over the line. It may take many counts, based on a number of successive eliminations, before McGuinness is elected.

Fianna Fáil stalwart Pat the Cope Gallagher at 11% is neck and neck with his running mate, Thomas Byrne on 10%. Neither appear to be attracting significant transfers, so it is likely that whoever can stay ahead will be elected by virtue of their party rival’s transfers on elimination.

53


We are then in a battle for the fourth and final seat between Marian Harkin, sitting independent MEP and Matt Carthy of Sinn Féin.

Our exit poll suggests Harkin is trailing Carthy on first preferences by a couple of points.

Crucially Harkin is significantly more transfer-friendly than Carthy, and this could see Harkin pip Carthy at the post, come the end of the count, drawing on transfers from Lorraine Higgins of Labour, Ronan Mullan Independent, and even Fine Gael’s Higgins.

54

European Elections 2014:South Constituency

55

First Preference Vote: European Election: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

3

9

26

1

7

5

1

12

17

5

2

1

5

5

1

Richard Cahill, Independent

Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael

Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil

Jillian Godsil, Independent

Simon Harris, Fine Gael

Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil

Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats (The National Party)

Sean Kelly, Fine Gael

Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin

Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent

Peter O'Loughlin, Independent

Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua

Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party

Phil Prendergast, Labour Party

Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland

% First Preference Vote


56



Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F

% % % % % % % % % %

Richard Cahill, Independent 3 2 4 6 4 2 2 3 3 1

Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9 5 12 7 9 8 9 8 8 18

Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 25 27 24 23 26 27 23 28 30

Jillian Godsil, Independent 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1

Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7 6 7 5 7 8 6 9 5 7

Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5 5 4 10 5 4 4 7 3 4


1 1 2 - 2 1 2 1 1 1

Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12 16 8 14 15 11 12 13 10 19

Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 17 19 16 19 22 19 15 14 22 8


5 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 4 2

Peter O'Loughlin, Independent 2 2 2 - 2 1 2 2 1 1

Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua 1 0 1 - 1 1 0 1 0 -

Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 5 5 6 3 4 8 5 7 4 6

Phil Prendergast, Labour Party 5 5 6 5 2 4 7 4 7 2


1 2 1 - 1 2 2 2 1 -


57


Region

Total Cork, KerryClare, Limerick,

TipperaryCarlow, Kilkenny,

Waterford, Wexford

% % % %

Richard Cahill, Independent 3 2 4 3

Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9 14 6 4

Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 26 31 21

Jillian Godsil, Independent 1 2 1 1

Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7 1 4 16

Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5 3 6 5


1 1 1 2

Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12 12 16 9

Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 17 24 11 15

Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent 5 5 8 4

Peter O'Loughlin, Independent 2 1 1 3

Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua 1 0 1 0

Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 5 4 5 7

Phil Prendergast, Labour Party 5 4 6 7

Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 1 2


58




FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

Richard Cahill, Independent 3 2 2 2 - - 6 10

Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9 24 5 2 2 - 4 -

Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 17 18 59 4 7 19 18

Jillian Godsil, Independent 1 1 - - - - 5 -

Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7 14 13 4 - 5 3 -

Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5 3 - 12 3 - 2 -


1 1 1 1 - - 2 -

Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12 27 3 5 4 - 10 -

Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 17 2 - 7 80 - 15 28

Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent 5 3 4 1 4 4 13 10

Peter O'Loughlin, Independent 2 1 1 2 - 6 3 7

Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua 1 - - 0 2 4 0 10

Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 5 3 5 2 1 66 8 9

Phil Prendergast, Labour Party 5 1 47 2 - 9 6 9

Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 1 1 1 - 3 -


59

European Election Second Preference Support Levels Versus European Election 1st Preference Support: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

Second Preference

Total


Richard Cahill,

Independent

Deirdre Clune,

Fine Gael

Brian Crowley, Fianna

Fáil

Jillian Godsil,

Independent


Kieran Hartley,Fianna

Fáil

Theresa Heaney, Catholic

Democrats


Liadh NíRiada, Sinn Féin

Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Indepen

dent

Peter O'Loughl

in, Indepen

dent


Grace O'Sullivan, Green

Party

Phil Prender

gast, Labour Party

Jan Van De Ven, Direct

Democ. Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %Richard Cahill, Independent

3 - - 1 17 2 - 9 3 4 11 10 - 4 3 -

Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael

9 - - 9 6 22 - 16 30 3 4 - - 8 9 -

Brian Crowley, FiannaFáil

11 16 8 - 6 11 53 26 15 12 9 6 - 12 10 7

Jillian Godsil, Independent

3 12 4 1 - - - - 2 5 3 - - 2 4 8


7 - 30 3 8 - 2 - 14 3 - 18 - 3 8 -

Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil

9 - 3 29 - 2 - - 3 2 - - - 3 3 -


2 - 2 2 - 2 - - - 1 3 5 - 5 - 6

Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 10 4 26 16 7 20 2 - - 4 8 7 - 4 16 -

Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin

6 7 5 7 - - 6 17 4 - 16 8 28 9 8 12


4 7 - 2 26 1 2 - 3 9 - 16 15 3 3 -

Peter O'Loughlin, Independent

2 6 - 1 - 1 - - - 3 11 - - - 2 6


1 7 1 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - - 1 - 6

Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party

4 4 2 3 - 7 7 6 3 6 5 8 - - 3 5

Phil Prendergast, Labour Party

4 3 3 4 - 11 4 - 3 1 5 - - 14 - 6


1 - - - 6 1 - - - 4 1 5 - - - -

Don't know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


60

Reasons for First Preference European Election Candidate Support: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections


Total


Richard Cahill,

Independent

Deirdre Clune,

Fine Gael


Fáil

Jillian Godsil,

Independent



Fáil

Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democra

ts




dent

Peter O'Loughl

in, Indepen

dent



Party

Phil Prender

gast, Labour Party


Democ. Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

The personality or qualities of the candidate

46 42 42 64 49 52 45 50 48 34 37 23 46 33 33 27

The party of the candidate

28 18 44 21 14 24 42 6 31 38 15 13 - 24 39 6

The policies of the candidate

19 26 8 12 37 16 11 36 15 18 39 48 54 37 13 56

The candidate’s party leader

2 - 1 1 - - - - 2 3 - - - 2 6 -

None of these 4 3 5 1 - 7 2 7 4 6 9 17 - 3 5 11

Don’t know 1 10 - 1 - 2 - - - 1 - - - - 3 -


61

Reasons for First Preference Vote in European Election Party Support: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections


Total



Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % %

The personality or qualities of the candidate

46 47 33 61 34 33 38 -

The party of the candidate 28 33 39 24 38 24 13 -

The policies of the candidate

19 13 13 12 18 37 40 -

The candidate’s party leader

2 1 6 1 3 2 - -

None of these 4 5 5 1 6 3 8 -

Don’t know 1 0 3 1 1 - 2 -


62

Local Election Versus European Election First Preference: South Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

Local Election FirstPreference Vote



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 28 66 6 18 3 16 18 -

Labour 6 5 55 4 - 5 5 -

Fianna Fail 24 10 7 57 10 11 13 -

Sinn Fein 14 3 - 3 63 4 6 -

Green Party 2 0 4 1 - 27 2 -

All Indep./Others 25 16 28 17 22 38 56 -

Soc.P/PBPA 1 - 2 1 2 2 3 -


63

European Election Versus 2011 General Election: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

Q.5Q.10


European Election First Preference

Party Vote Total


Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

Don’t know

Did not vote

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 28 54 7 9 5 - 8 31 27 26

Labour 6 3 34 3 3 - 1 - 6 4

Fianna Fail 24 11 9 66 8 14 10 - 26 20

Sinn Fein 14 8 17 9 69 - 8 - 5 15

Green Party 2 2 6 0 - 41 2 - 2 1

All Indep./Others 25 22 27 12 16 45 70 69 30 32

Soc.P/PBPA 1 1 1 1 3 - 1 19 1 -

64

Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – Candidate Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections



Total


Richard Cahill,

Independent

Deirdre Clune,

Fine Gael


Fáil

Jillian Godsil,

Independent



Fáil


ts




dent

Peter O'Loughl

in, Indepen

dent



Party

Phil Prender

gast, Labour Party


Democ. Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %


86 83 95 87 94 72 85 88 85 89 86 83 72 84 90 77


77 75 88 88 36 71 79 73 83 68 53 57 61 65 83 56


44 69 17 41 64 21 57 51 18 73 77 39 36 44 28 79


39 51 29 35 76 24 39 37 25 58 52 35 15 52 22 67

None 4 12 3 5 - 6 3 - 7 4 - 5 - 2 2 10

65

Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections





Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %


86 85 90 87 89 84 85 -


77 81 83 87 68 65 59 -


44 19 28 43 73 44 67 -


39 26 22 35 58 52 51 -

None 4 5 2 5 4 2 4

66

Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Candidate Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

Q.4 Please tell me whether any of the following influenced how you voted in the European election, or not?


Total


Richard Cahill,

Independent

Deirdre Clune,

Fine Gael


Fáil

Jillian Godsil,

Independent



Fáil


ts




dent

Peter O'Loughl

in, Indepen

dent



Party

Phil Prender

gast, Labour Party


Democ. Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice.

31 40 17 30 52 21 38 28 23 41 42 30 33 26 31 40


23 25 28 22 14 24 16 23 24 30 11 16 54 19 20 26


22 26 15 19 48 15 37 25 21 29 24 11 18 26 20 13


29 46 42 25 24 26 29 38 25 30 29 33 54 27 29 37


51 79 25 52 61 32 47 31 35 72 72 53 72 49 39 66


42 61 46 37 41 45 44 23 40 50 36 22 33 33 52 48


53 86 33 54 55 29 61 43 37 74 65 35 33 57 49 80


51 75 33 51 66 28 68 34 31 73 73 50 72 48 37 69

None 24 11 29 28 12 31 15 51 31 13 12 22 28 30 22 15

67

Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections




Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % %


31 20 31 32 41 26 39 -


23 25 20 21 30 19 19 -


22 17 20 21 29 26 24 -


29 31 29 25 30 27 35 -


51 31 39 51 72 49 66 -


42 43 52 38 50 33 39 -


53 34 49 55 74 57 63 -


51 31 37 54 73 48 66 -

None 24 31 22 26 13 30 18 -


68

Satisfaction with Government – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections


Satisfaction with

GovernmentTotal


Richard Cahill,

Independent

Deirdre Clune,

Fine Gael


Fáil

Jillian Godsil,

Independent



Fáil


ts




dent

Peter O'Loughl

in, Indepen

dent



Party

Phil Prender

gast, Labour Party


Democ. Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %


26 11 62 18 7 53 15 12 50 7 12 16 28 22 30 10


69 84 30 77 76 44 85 88 42 90 82 84 72 68 61 90

Don’t know 5 5 8 5 17 3 - - 8 3 6 - - 10 9 -

69

Satisfaction with Government – European Election Party SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections


Satisfaction with

GovernmentTotal



Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %


26 54 30 18 7 22 12 -


69 39 61 78 90 68 83 -

Don’t know 5 7 9 4 3 10 5 -

70

Economic Outlook – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections


Economic

Outlook Total


Richard Cahill,

Independent

Deirdre Clune,

Fine Gael


Fáil

Jillian Godsil,

Independent



Fáil


ts




dent

Peter O'Loughl

in, Indepen

dent



Party

Phil Prender

gast, Labour Party


Democ. Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %


35 8 71 25 25 58 41 17 54 18 23 24 46 32 48 11


35 49 15 37 29 29 31 56 36 42 32 48 15 41 26 43


30 42 14 37 45 12 27 27 10 40 45 28 39 27 26 46

71

Economic Outlook – European Election Party SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections





Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %


35 60 48 28 18 32 20 -


35 28 26 37 42 41 40 -


30 12 26 36 40 27 41 -

72

Household Financial Situation – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections


HouseholdFinancial

SituationTotal


Richard Cahill,

Independent

Deirdre Clune,

Fine Gael


Fáil

Jillian Godsil,

Independent



Fáil


ts




dent

Peter O'Loughl

in, Indepen

dent



Party

Phil Prender

gast, Labour Party


Democ. Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %


13 - 31 8 13 21 11 13 25 9 3 - 28 10 14 -


42 35 46 46 41 54 48 13 49 27 36 48 18 42 44 34


45 65 22 46 46 25 42 74 26 63 61 52 54 49 41 66

73

Household Financial Situation – European Election Party SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections


Household Financial

SituationTotal



Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % %


13 26 14 9 9 10 5 -


42 49 44 46 27 42 34 -


45 25 41 45 63 49 61 -

74

South ConstituencyInterpretation & Analysis

75


The South Constituency is a vast one, encompassing swathes of the so-called Greater Dublin Area, such as Wicklow and Wexford, across to Limerick and Clare, swooping down to Cork and Kerry.

This broad geographical constituency footprint led both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to run multiple candidates, although it was always acknowledged that Brian Crowley of Fianna Fáilwould greatly outstrip his running mate, Kieran Hartley, and head the poll, as is his want.

And so it has come to pass. Our exit poll suggests that Crowley will return to Europe on the first count, with his surplus of no practical use to his running mate Hartley in seriously challenging for a seat.

Next in line is Liadh Ní Riada of Sinn Féin whose 17% share of first preferences will comfortably see her home, by virtue of a mix of some of Crowley’s surplus, and transfers from Independent Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, and in particular Grace O’Sullivan of the Greens.

Indeed, Phil Prendergast’s spirited attempt to distance herself from Labour’s woes has yielded no dividends and she is likely to join her colleagues Emer Costello in Dublin and Lorraine Higgins in Midlands North West as also-rans. However, Prendergast stayed until late in the race, and would seem to have lasted longer than her Labour stablemates.

76


The third candidate likely to be elected in the South constituency is Sean Kelly of Fine Gael, who will benefit from the elimination of his running mate Simon Harris, some of whose transfers will also bolster Deirdre Clune, who is in pole position to pick up the fourth and final seat.

Probably the most predictable of all three Euro constituencies, it would be a major shock based on these exit poll figures if anybody but the four aforementioned candidates were to be elected to the European Parliament in Ireland South.

77

Local Election 2014National Picture

78

First Preference Party Vote: Local ElectionsBase: All Voters

24

7

22

16

3

28

3

Fine Gael

Labour

Fianna Fail

Sinn Fein

Green Party

All Indep./Others

Soc.P/PBPA

First Preference

Vote%

Gender Age Class

MaleFemal

e18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F

% % % % % % % % %

23 24 20 21 24 25 26 19 39

7 7 4 4 7 8 8 7 1

23 21 28 19 20 23 20 22 34

17 14 14 20 16 14 12 22 6

3 3 1 4 4 2 5 2 -

26 30 32 31 28 26 29 29 20

2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 -

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections

79

First Preference Party Vote: Local ElectionsBase: All Voters

24

7

22

16

3

28

3

Fine Gael

Labour

Fianna Fail

Sinn Fein

Green Party

All Indep./Others

Soc.P/PBPA

% First Preference

Vote

RegionEuropean Election Exit Poll Party Support – First

Preference

DublinRestLeins

Munster

Conn/ Ulster

Fine Gael

Lab-our

FiannaFáil

Sinn Féin

GreenParty

All Indep/Others

Soc.P./PBPA

% % % % % % % % % % %

16 27 27 23 69 12 12 2 13 14 3

12 8 5 2 5 52 4 1 13 5 6

12 22 25 29 9 8 64 7 9 13 6

21 17 13 12 3 2 4 70 3 7 8

6 2 2 2 1 3 1 0 34 2 2

32 24 27 32 14 23 15 18 27 58 73

9 1 1 1 0 2 1 2 2 7 42


80

Local Elections First Preference Vote Versus 2011 General ElectionBase: All Voters

2014 LocalElection Exit

Poll Total

2011 General Election First Preference

Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

Indepen-dent/ Others

SP/PBP

Don’t know

Did not vote

% % % % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 24 52 8 7 3 2 4 5 21 20

Labour Party 7 4 27 4 2 7 2 3 6 6

Fianna Fáil 22 11 6 65 5 6 9 - 22 22

Sinn Féin 16 8 18 9 74 2 7 3 11 16

Green Party 3 2 7 0 0 59 3 2 1 3

All Independent/Others

28 23 34 15 16 22 75 87 36 31


3 1 5 2 2 2 9 58 4 2


81

Future General Election Voting Intention x Local Election Party SupportBase: All Voters

Q.14And to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote if a General Election were held tomorrow?

Future GE Support Total

Local Election Party Support

Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn FéinGreen Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 21 70 14 5 1 12 7 3

Labour Party 5 2 50 2 0 7 2 1

Fianna Fáil 19 3 10 69 2 - 6 4

Sinn Féin 18 2 3 5 82 - 11 11

Green Party 3 1 2 1 1 53 2 4

All Independent/Others 22 7 11 6 5 13 60 70


3 - 1 0 1 3 8 59

Don’t know 12 16 11 12 8 14 12 8

Would not vote 0 0 - 0 - - 1 -

82

Local Election 1st Preference Party x Satisfaction with GovernmentBase: All Voters



TotalFine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinnFéin

Green Party

All Independent

/ Others

Socialist Party / People

Before Profit Alliance

% % % % % % % %


26 58 40 16 6 29 15 8


68 35 54 79 91 62 79 88

Don’t know 5 7 6 4 3 9 6 4

83

Local Election 1st Preference Party x View of EconomyBase: All Voters


Total


Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinnFéin

Green Party

All Independent

/ Others



% % % % % % % %


34 54 53 25 18 57 27 26


36 33 30 41 33 25 39 40


30 13 18 34 49 17 35 35

84

Local Election 1st Preference Party x Household Financial SituationBase: All Voters


Total


Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinnFéin

Green Party

All Independent

/ Others



% % % % % % % %


11 21 17 7 5 14 8 6


46 52 52 47 34 51 44 44


43 27 31 46 61 36 48 50

85

Reason for Vote x Local Election 1st Preference PartyBase: Voters

Q.6And thinking again of the local election, please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the local election?

Main Reason for Preference Total


Fine Gael LabourFianna

FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. Party/People Before Profit

% % % % % % % %

The personality or qualities of the candidate 50 57 56 54 28 28 54 20

The party of the candidate 23 28 25 27 37 30 8 21

The policies of the candidate 21 10 16 14 27 32 31 54

The candidate’s party leader 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 1

None of these 3 2 2 2 5 5 5 5

Don’t know 1 1 - 1 0 2 1 -

86

Type of Representation Wanted x Local Election 1st

Preference PartyBase: All Voters

Q.7In the Local Election, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?



Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others


% % % % % % % %

I wanted a candidate who

would represent my views on local issues

Important 89 85 90 89 92 83 90 94

Not important 10 14 9 8 7 15 9 5

Don’t know 1 1 0 3 1 2 1 1

I wanted to protest against the Government and its policies

Important 53 22 29 55 82 47 68 75

Not important 45 75 69 43 17 50 30 22

Don’t know 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 3

87

Influencing Factors x Local Election 1st Preference PartyBase: All Voters

Factors of Influence Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others


% % % % % % % %

The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice

32 18 22 36 46 26 36 39


28 23 22 29 39 15 29 19

The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams 23 15 15 24 38 17 22 16

The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout 29 29 31 24 36 31 29 22


55 30 39 57 81 40 66 81

Reduced unemployment figures 45 41 49 41 59 30 46 45


57 36 45 59 82 39 63 69

The introduction of a Property Tax 54 30 39 56 79 34 65 74

None 25 38 26 26 9 37 20 10

Q.8 Please tell me whether any of the following influenced how you voted in the Local election, or not?

88

Coalition Preferences x Local Election SupportBase: All Voters

Q.15 Which of the following coalitions would you like to see following the next General Election?

Preferred Coalition Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael and Labour 18 45 46 5 2 16 9 7

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 15 20 10 30 2 7 10 3

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 4 7 3 1 7 1 3 2

Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil 15 3 7 24 35 4 10 14

Sinn Féin, Labour, Greens and other left wing parties and independents

12 1 8 2 29 27 20 29

Other 13 7 11 15 14 22 16 20

Don’t know 24 19 18 24 13 26 34 28

Would not vote 1 1 - 0 0 1 1 -

89

Replacement of Leader x Local Election SupportBase: All Voters

Q.16Which, if any, of the following do you feel should be replaced as the leader of their party over the next three months or so?

Leaders Feel Should be Replaced

Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Enda Kenny as leader of Fine Gael 35 15 23 38 58 30 39 47

Micheál Martin as leader of FiannaFáil

22 19 19 19 29 23 24 29

Eamon Gilmore as leader of the Labour Party

44 27 40 44 59 44 50 52

Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin 34 43 36 35 19 41 33 23

Eamon Ryan as leader of the Green Party

10 8 5 7 14 7 14 20

Don’t know 10 11 6 9 5 13 12 8

None 14 20 18 12 9 14 12 10

90

European Integration Views x Local Election Party SupportBase: All Voters

Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

In favour of further European integration

47 58 56 46 36 41 43 32

Against further European integration

40 31 32 41 50 30 45 57

Don’t know 13 12 11 13 14 29 12 11

Q.17 Are you in favour of, or against, further European integration?

91

Same Sex Marriage Views x Local Party SupportBase: All Voters

Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Yes – in favour of same sex marriage 69 68 75 57 75 81 73 75

No – against same sex marriage 21 23 16 29 17 8 18 20

Don’t know 10 10 9 14 8 10 9 4

Q.18

As you probably know, in 2010 Irish law was changed to allow for full civil partnership between same sex couples. Since then, a decision has been taken to hold a referendum in 2015 on whether the law should be changed to allow for full marriage for same sex couples, with all of the legal entitlements that are enjoyed by married couples. If such a referendum was held today, would you vote yes in favour of same sex marriage or no against same sex marriage?

92

Local ElectionInterpretation & Analysis

93


Typically, voters have used Local Government Elections as an opportunity to register their dissatisfaction with the Government of the day with, for example, Independent candidates often performing more strongly than they would in a General Election.

The common wisdom would therefore be that the share of vote registered by parties in such Local Elections are not necessarily indicative of how those same parties are likely to perform in the subsequent General Election.

Notwithstanding this, the parties will continue to leverage the Locals as a means of blooding new candidates for the next General Election.

In the 2009 Local Elections, Fine Gael won 32% of the first preference vote, emerging not only as the biggest party on the day, but also realising a significant seat bonus, winning 39% (340) of all seats on their 32% share of the vote.

Based on this election’s exit poll figures, Fine Gael’s Local Government vote is likely to decline to in or around 24%. Assuming no significant seat bonus, on the basis that both Government parties are ‘on the backfoot’ from the electorate’s perspective, the main coalition party stands to win in or around 220 seats, out of the total 949 being contested.

The Labour Party, meanwhile, is set to suffer a circa 50% decline in the share of the local election vote it garnered in 2009. These figures would yield roughly 65 local council seats, compared to the 132 it won five years ago.

94


The big winners in the 2014 Locals are undoubtedly Sinn Féin and Independent candidates. From a baseline of just 7% of the vote in 2009, equating to just 6% of all seats won in that election, Sinn Féin will have captured approximately 16% of the popular local Government Election vote by the time all counts are tallied at the end of Saturday, 24th May.

In terms of seat allocation, this should see the party increase its haul from just over 50 seats in 2009 to as many as 150 this year.

Meanwhile, the number of Independent candidate councillors sitting on local authorities around the country is likely to settle in at between 250 and 300 seats. In fact, the Independent bloc may well be the largest across the country, shattering the status quo enjoyed by mainstream parties in the local Government realm since the foundation of the State.

Finally, in 2009, Fianna Fáil support was in decline, and they were disappointed with the 25% of Local Election first preferences they won then.

Fast forward to May 2014, and the party is beginning to recover from its disastrous 2011 General Election result of just 17% of first preferences.

In practical terms, the Soldiers of Destiny have come close at 22% to matching their 2009 Local Election result in today’s poll and, given the fact that the number of local election seats being contested has increased from 883 five years ago to 949 today, the party is set to more or less match the tally of 218 seats it won last time out.

95


● xxx

European Election 2014National Picture

96

First Preference Party Vote: European ElectionsBase: All Voters

22

6

22

17

6

27

3

Fine Gael

Labour

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./Others

Soc.P/PBPA

First Preference

Vote%

Gender Age Class

MaleFemal

e18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F

% % % % % % % % %

23 21 18 22 22 23 24 18 40

5 6 3 4 5 7 6 6 1

22 22 26 18 20 25 21 22 28

19 16 19 22 17 15 13 24 8

6 6 4 6 8 5 10 3 2

24 29 30 28 27 25 27 27 21

3 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 -


97

First Preference Party Vote: European ElectionsBase: All Voters

22

6

22

17

6

27

3

Fine Gael

Labour

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./Others

Soc.P/PBPA

% First Preference

Vote

RegionLocal Election Exit Poll Party Support – First

Preference

DublinRestLeins

Munster

Conn/ Ulster

Fine Gael

Lab-our

FiannaFáil

Sinn Féin

GreenParty

All Indep/Others

Soc.P./PBPA

% % % % % % % % % % %

14 27 25 22 65 15 9 4 5 11 2

8 6 5 3 3 41 2 1 6 4 4

12 22 32 21 11 12 65 5 6 12 6

24 16 17 10 2 2 5 77 2 11 15

14 3 6 2 3 12 2 1 67 6 5

28 27 15 43 16 19 16 12 15 55 68

14 - - - 0 3 1 2 3 9 51


98

European Elections First Preference Vote Versus 2011 General ElectionBase: All Voters

2014 EuropeanElection Exit

Poll Total

2011 General Election First Preference

Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

Indepen-dent/ Others

SP/PBPDon’t Know

Did not vote

% % % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 22 46 10 7 4 2 8 5 25 17

Labour Party 6 4 20 2 1 5 5 3 6 6

Fianna Fáil 22 12 9 62 6 3 15 3 24 20

Sinn Féin 17 8 20 11 71 4 11 14 15 19

Green Party 6 6 11 3 1 70 5 4 6 6

All Independent/Others

27 25 30 16 17 16 56 71 25 32

Socialist Party/People Before Profit Alliance

3 2 7 1 3 3 11 54 3 4


99

Future General Election Voting Intention x European Election Party SupportBase: All Voters

Q.14And to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote if a General Election were held tomorrow?

Future GE Support Total


Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn FéinGreen Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 21 65 10 9 2 18 10 3

Labour Party 5 2 48 2 1 10 3 4

Fianna Fáil 19 6 6 60 4 5 10 3

Sinn Féin 18 2 5 4 74 4 12 15

Green Party 3 0 2 1 1 33 1 1

All Independent/Others 22 11 16 11 11 17 50 67


3 0 2 1 2 0 8 41

Don’t know 12 14 13 13 6 13 14 7

Would not vote 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 -

100

European Election 1st Preference Party x Satisfaction with GovernmentBase: All Voters



TotalFine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinnFéin

Green Party

All Independent

/ Others




26 61 36 17 6 36 15 8


68 33 56 79 91 55 80 91

Don’t know 5 6 8 5 3 9 5 1

101

European Election 1st Preference Party x View of EconomyBase: All Voters


Total


Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinnFéin

Green Party

All Independent

/ Others




34 57 52 27 19 55 23 25


36 32 30 39 35 28 39 40


30 10 18 35 46 17 38 35

102

European Election 1st Preference Party x Household Financial SituationBase: All Voters


Total


Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinnFéin

Green Party

All Independent

/ Others



% % % % % % % %


11 22 11 7 7 19 6 7


46 54 52 47 33 44 44 40


43 24 36 45 61 37 50 53

103

Reason for Vote x European Election 1st Preference PartyBase: Voters


Main Reason for Preference Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others


% % % % % % % %

The personality or qualities of the candidate 40 42 35 46 28 36 43 21

The party of the candidate 30 36 42 35 40 23 12 17

The policies of the candidate 22 14 16 14 24 36 34 51

The candidate’s party leader 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 5

None of these 5 4 3 3 5 4 7 5

Don’t know 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1

104

Type of Representation Wanted x European Election 1st

Preference PartyBase: All Voters




Fine Gael

LabourFianna

FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others


% % % % % % % %

I wanted a candidate who

would represent my views on local issues

Important 89 85 92 90 92 86 89 90

Not important 10 14 8 8 8 13 9 7

Don’t know 1 1 - 2 0 1 1 2

I wanted to protest against the Government and its policies

Important 53 29 28 51 81 39 66 72

Not important 45 69 71 46 17 59 33 25

Don’t know 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 4

105

Influencing Factors x European Election 1st Preference PartyBase: All Voters

Factors of Influence Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others


% % % % % % % %

The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice

32 18 23 33 43 26 39 33


26 23 19 23 32 16 29 18

The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams 22 17 16 21 30 21 22 17

The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout 33 34 33 26 35 28 36 32


52 28 34 52 75 35 65 82

Reduced unemployment figures 44 43 47 38 55 32 44 40


53 32 41 55 75 39 61 74

The introduction of a Property Tax 51 28 34 51 76 35 63 72

None 23 32 26 27 11 35 17 7


106

Coalition Preferences x European Election SupportBase: All Voters

Q.15 Which of the following coalitions would you like to see following the next General Election?

Preferred Coalition Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael and Labour 18 46 43 8 2 20 9 8

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 15 20 9 29 4 15 10 6

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 4 5 2 3 7 2 3 2

Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil 15 4 5 20 35 5 11 9

Sinn Féin, Labour, Greens and other left wing parties and independents

12 3 12 3 27 18 17 31

Other 13 6 12 14 13 20 17 26

Don’t know 24 18 19 25 15 24 33 21

Would not vote 1 1 - 0 0 0 1 1

107

Replacement of Leader x European Election SupportBase: All Voters

Q.16Which, if any, of the following do you feel should be replaced as the leader of their party over the next three months or so?

Leaders Feel Should be Replaced

Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Enda Kenny as leader of Fine Gael 35 14 26 38 55 28 39 43

Micheál Martin as leader of FiannaFáil

22 19 21 20 29 22 22 24

Eamon Gilmore as leader of the Labour Party

44 27 41 47 59 37 47 49

Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin 34 43 39 35 19 36 34 27

Eamon Ryan as leader of the Green Party

10 8 9 9 14 6 12 15

Don’t know 10 11 9 8 7 10 13 11

None 14 22 19 12 8 19 12 11

108

European Integration Views x European Election Party SupportBase: All Voters

Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

In favour of further European integration

47 58 55 46 35 61 40 35

Against further European integration

40 29 34 42 51 25 46 50

Don’t know 13 13 11 12 13 14 14 15

Q.17 Are you in favour of, or against, further European integration?

109

Same Sex Marriage Views x European Party SupportBase: All Voters

Total



FáilSinn Féin

Green Party

All Indep./ Others

Soc. P./PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Yes – in favour of same sex marriage 69 66 81 56 74 84 73 80

No – against same sex marriage 21 23 11 30 18 10 18 15

Don’t know 10 12 8 14 8 6 9 4

Q.18

As you probably know, in 2010 Irish law was changed to allow for full civil partnership between same sex couples. Since then, a decision has been taken to hold a referendum in 2015 on whether the law should be changed to allow for full marriage for same sex couples, with all of the legal entitlements that are enjoyed by married couples. If such a referendum was held today, would you vote yes in favour of same sex marriage or no against same sex marriage?

110

Questionnaires

111

Dublin Constituency questionnaire

112


113


114


115

Midlands-North-West Constituency questionnaire

116


117


118


119

South Constituency questionnaire

120


121


122


123

Sampling Points

124

Dublin sampling points

Dublin Dublin

St. Gabriel's NS, Cowper St., Dublin 7 Sandyford Community Centre

O'Connell's Secondary School, North Richmond St. (Off NCR) Dublin 1 Combined Clubs Hall, Balbriggan

1. Virgin Mary NS, Shangan Road, Dublin 9 Scoil Mhuire, Blakestown Road

Our Lady of Consolation NS, Collins Avenue East, Donneycarney, Dublin 5 Scoil Mhuire, Blakestown Road

Christ the King NS, Annaly Road, Cabra, Dublin 7 Scoil Bhríde Boys NS, Blanchardstown

Belgrove Junior Boys NS, Seafield Road, Clontarf, Dublin 3 Church of Ireland NS, Main Street, Castleknock

St. Patrick's Boys NS, Milbourne Avenue, Drumcondra Road, Dublin 9 St. Margaret's N.S. St. Margaret's

St. Finian's NS, Glenties Park, Rivermount, Finglas South, Dublin 11 St. Nicholas of Myra Hall, Kinsaley

St. Benedict's Resource Centre, St. Mary's Road North, East Wall, Dublin 3 Pope John Paul NS, Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide

Gaelscoil Cholmcille, Coolock Lane (behind Astro Park) Dublin 17 Skerries Community Centre

Sean O'Casey Community Centre, St. Mary's Road North, East Wall, Dublin 3 Scoil Drimnagh, Feltrim Road, Swords

St. Joseph's NS, Macroom Road, Dublin 17 Tyrellstown Community Centre, Holbstown Road, Tyrellstown

Larkhill Boys School, Glenann Road, Dublin 9 Archbishop Ryan Senior NS, Foxdene, Lucan South

Crumlin College VEC, Crumlin Road, Dublin 12 St Peter The Apostle N.S. Neilstown Road

De la Salle Boys National School, Ballyfermot Road, Dublin 10 Scoil Carmel, Firhouse Road

St. Gabriel's Primary School, Ballyfermot Road, Dublin 10 Scoil Aine Naofa, Newcastle Road, Lucan

Ringsend Girls NS, Cambridge Road, Dublin 4 Lucan Educate Together N.S.

1. Ballsbridge College, Shelbourne Road, Dublin 4 Palmerstown Boys N.S. The Oval, Palmerstown

2. St. Mary's NS, Belmont Avenue, Donnybrook, Dublin 4 St. Mary's N.s. Grange Road, Rathfarnham

Beechwood Avenue Community Centre, Mountainview Road, Dublin 6 St. Thomas Junior N.S. Fortunestown Road

2. DIT Admin Building, Rathmines House, 143-149 Lower Rathmines Road, Dublin 6 Kilnamanagh National School, Treepark Road, Kilnamanagh

Presentation Primary School, Terenure Road West, Dublin 6W Springfield N.S. Maplewood Road

Scout Hall, St. Agnes Church Ground, Crumlin Village, Dublin 12 Bishop Shanahan N.S. Orwell Road, Templeogue

St. Colmcilles NS St. Lawrence's NS

Carysfort NS, Convent Road, Blackrock New Trinity Comprehensive School, Ballymun Road, Dublin 9

Good Shepherd NS Scoil Catriona, 59 Baggot St Lower, Dublin 2.

Harold Boy NS, Patrick St. St. Clare's NS, Harold's Cross Road, Dublin 6W

Dominican NS Scoil Mhuire N.S., Tuckets Lane, Howth, Dublin 13

Hollypark NS St Helen's N.S., Limetree Avenue, Portmarnock

Glencullen NS Scoil Mhuire, Glenmore, Ballyboden

Rathmichael NS, Shankill St Pius X N.S., Fortfield Park, Terenure, Dublin 6

125

Midlands-North-West sampling points

Midlands-North-West Midlands-North-West

Scoil Einde, Dr. Mannix Road Convent NS, Church Avenue, Portlaoise

Presentation Infants NS Newcastle Road Ballinalee National School

Scoil Bhríde, Oldtown, Sallins Road, Naas Scoil Mhuire NS, Kells

Aghards NS Castlejordan Community Centre

Scoil Bhríde, Green lane Edenderry Library

Derrinturn NS Tang Community School

Scoil Mhuire Junior School, Ballymany Multyfarnham NS

Patrician Primary School Cappataggle NS, Cappataggle, Ballinasloe, Co. Galway

St. Fintans Hall, Mountrath Carrowbeg NS, Liscananown

Drogheda Borough Council Office Fair St. Drogheda Gurteen NS, Cappalusk

Dunleer NS, Dunleer, Co. Louth Doire Glinne SN, Letterfore, Oughterard

Tenure NS, Mulany, Drogheda Clontuskert NS

Ashbourne Comminity Centre Askill Community Centre, Gubacreeny

Ratoath Senior National School Naíonra Thuas Mhic Eadraigh, Baile Óbha

Duleek Boys NS Derrynabrack NS, Cloontia

Scoil Eoin Phoil, Arden Dysart NS

Clara Boys NS, ClaraRunnamote NS, Lisnaglen, Cloonygormican, Co. Roscommon

Cornamaddy NS, Moydrum Sooey Community Centre, Ballynakill, Co. Sligo

Baile Chlair SN, an Carn Mor, Baile Chlair, Cheatrú an Bhrúnaigh

Tunnyduff NS

Mountbellew NS, Mountbellew Laghy NS

Carnanool NS Craigstown NS

Scoil Iosa NS, Ballyhaunis Cashel National School, Glencolmcille, Co. Donegal

Kilglass NS Scout Hall, York St., Castleblayney

Ballyconnell Central NS, Ballyconnell, Co. Cavan Batterstown N.S. Dunboyne

Gort an Choirce SN Cooneal N.S., Ballysakeery

MaChaire Rabhtaigh NS Manorhamilton Community Centre

Staplestown NS Rathcormac National School, Drumcliff, Co. Sligo

Timahoe Community Hall, Timahoe Duleek Boys NS

126

South sampling points

South Sampling Points

Social & Resource Centre, 61/62 Roches Buildings, Blackpool

Greenmount NS, Greenmount

St. Patrick's NS, Gardener's Hill

Scoil Mhuire Bonrian Convent School, Boherboy Road, Tivoli

Castleconnell NS

St. Brigid's National School, Singland

St. John of God's NS

Sixmilebridge NS

Clonlara NS

Scoil Ghobnatan, Mallow

Bandon GAA

Carrigaline Community Complex

Ballynora NS

Coolmoohan Community Centre

St. Colman's NS, Cloyne

Christian Brothers Primary, Midleton

Holy Family NS Balloonagh Tralee

Scoil an Ghleanna, Baile ui She, Ballycaneen

Patrickswell NS

Roxborough NS

Ballina NS

Pon Road Community Centre

Leighlinbridge NS

Castlecomer Convent Primary School

St. Senann's School

St. John's Road School

St. Andrew's NS Bray

Enniskerry NS

Kilcoole NS

Ballyvaughan NS

Scariff National School

Coachford NS

South Sampling Points

Lower Glanmire NS (New Inn)

Watergrasshill NS

Scoil Naisunta Baile Mhic Íre

Lisgoold Community Centre, Lisgoold, Co. Cork

Lissagriffin NS, Crookhaven

Knockanes NS, Brewsterfield

Killury NS, Causeway

Kilorglin NS

Caherelly NS

Aragh NS

Ballycahill

Scoil Teampall Toinne

Golden NS

St. Saviour's NS, Ballybeg

Nurney NS

St Canices Central National School, Kilkenny City

Strangmill NS

Scoil Chroí Ró Naofa (Ballymurn NS)

Ballyhack NS, Arthurstown

Glynn NS

Churchill NS

St. Paul’s Boys N.S. Lisduggan

CBS, Stephen Street, Kilkenny City

Callan Parish Hall, Callan Town

Clonakilty

Patrician Hall Ballinascarthy

rtÉ/behaviour & attitudes european election exit polla face-to-face exit poll was conducted...

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