rp data rismark home value index 2 apr 2013 final
TRANSCRIPT
RP Data-Rismark March Hedonic Home Value Index Results
National Media Release
Capital gains over the March quarter the highest since May 2010
Dwelling values posted a solid rise over the month of
March, increasing by 1.3 percent across the
combined capital city index. The positive conditions
were broad based, with every capital city recording a
rise, apart from Adelaide where the market remained
steady over the month. Perth has recorded the
highest level of growth over the month with dwelling
values surging 3.4 per cent. Hobart and Darwin also
recorded a large lift in dwelling values, rising 2.5 per
cent and 2.4 per cent respectively over the month.
Every capital city apart from Adelaide (-0.5%) has
seen dwelling values rise over the past quarter. Over
the past 12 months the only capital city not to
experience a rise in values was Hobart (-1.2%).
Rismark International CEO Ben Skilbeck
commented, “The March 2013 result is one of the
strongest we’ve seen over the 3 years since March
2010. Not only were there no value falls recorded
across the capital cities, but, over the past 3 years,
the all dwellings result of +1.32 per cent for the
month was second only to the +1.40 per cent
increase observed in September 2012. Further, it
was the strongest quarterly growth seen since the 3
month period ending May 2010.”
RP Data research director Tim Lawless said, “Since
the capital city housing market bottomed out at the
end of May last year we have seen dwelling values
rise by 4.7 per cent after falling by 7.4 per cent from
their market peak back in late 2010. The most
significant recoveries have been recorded across
Darwin where values have risen 13.9 per cent since
bottoming out in January last year, and Perth where
values are up 9.4 per cent since the market trough in
November 2011.”
“Both these cities are recording rental growth higher
than 10 per cent year on year which is providing a
significantly higher total return compared with other
cities. The RP Data-Rismark Accumulation Index,
which factors in the gross yield as well as capital
gains, is showing a total year on year gross return in
Darwin of 13.9 percent and Perth is recording a total
gross return of 10.6 per cent, both significantly higher
than the combined capitals average of 6.9 per cent
gross,” Mr Lawless said.
% change in dwelling values from market trough to March 2013
www.rpdata.com/indices
Dwelling values across the combined capital cities of Australia recorded a 2.8% rise over the March
quarter, taking the cumulative capital gain to 4.7% since the market bottomed out in May last year.
Released: Tuesday, April 2 Further information contact: rpdata.com – Mitch Koper – 0417 771 778
Highlights over the quarter
Best performing capital city: Hobart +6.1 per cent
Weakest performing capital city: Adelaide, -0.5 per cent
Highest rental yields: Darwin houses with gross rental yield of 6.0 per
cent and Darwin Units at 6.3 per cent
Lowest rental yields: Melbourne houses with gross rental yield of 3.6 per
cent and Melbourne units at 4.4 per cent
Most expensive city: Sydney with a median dwelling price of $550,500
Most affordable city: Hobart with a median dwelling price of $332,500
Source: RP Data–Rismark
* Rest of state change in values are for houses only to end of February
% change in dwelling values, market peak to March 2013
Index results as at March 31, 2013
Media enquiries: RP Data: Mitch Koper – 0417 771 778
Region Month Quarter YoY
Sydney 1.5% 3.4% 3.8% 8.5% $550,500
Melbourne 0.8% 2.5% 0.3% 4.1% $475,000
Brisbane 1.0% 1.9% 1.4% 6.4% $415,000
Adelaide 0.0% -0.5% 0.3% 4.7% $373,000
Perth 3.4% 4.3% 5.8% 10.6% $479,000
Hobart 2.5% 6.1% -1.2% 4.1% $332,500
Darwin 2.4% 2.4% 7.3% 13.9% $516,713
Canberra 0.4% 3.8% 3.4% 8.4% $505,000
8 capital city aggregate 1.3% 2.8% 2.4% 6.9% $465,000
Rest of state* -1.0% -1.1% -0.7% $328,000
Change in dwelling values Total gross
returns
Median
dwelling price
Sydney values are 0.1% higher
than their previous peak
National Media Release (Cont’d)
Across the broad price segments, it looks as if the middle priced housing sector is continuing to show the
healthiest market fundamentals. Based on the RP Data-Rismark Stratified Hedonic Index, dwelling values
across the middle sixty per cent of the housing market have increased by 1.6 per cent over the year to February,
compared with a 0.9 per cent fall in dwelling values at the most affordable end of the housing market, and a 0.6
per cent fall at the most expensive end of the pricing spectrum.
According to Rismark’s Ben Skilbeck, a review of housing credit aggregates indicates that the investor segment
of the housing market is showing greater responsiveness to the low interest rate environment than the owner
occupier segment. Credit growth for the 12 months to end February was 3.9 per cent in the owner occupied
segment compared to the investor segment at 5.6 per cent.
“With gross capital city unit rental yields now at 4.9 per cent, and a number of short term fixed rate loans also
being offered at these levels, it’s not surprising to see investors responding to these conditions more quickly than
owner occupiers”.
Apart from the capital gains being recorded across the housing market, other indicators are continuing to
suggest the housing market recovery will continue. Mr Lawless points out that both auction market and private
treaty indicators are showing strong results. RP Data’s mortgage platforms have also shown a surge in activity.
“Auction clearance rates haven’t been below 55 per cent on any occasion so far this year, and over recent
weeks the capital city weighted average clearance rate has been around the 60 percent mark with Melbourne
and Sydney nudging the 70 mark. Additionally, vendors selling their homes by private treaty have been
discounting their prices by a lesser amount in order to make a sale. The average selling time was consistently
shortening prior to the Christmas / New Year slow down.”
“RP Data’s Mortgage Index, which tracks activity across the RP Data mortgage platforms, reached levels not
seen since August 2009, suggesting housing finance commitments are likely to show a decent lift when the ABS
publishes the data for February and March later this year.”
Media enquiries contact:
Mitch Koper, National Media & Communications Manager 0417 771 778 or [email protected]
Introduction to the RP Data-Rismark Daily Hedonic Home Value Index methodology:
The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that
addresses the issue of compositional bias associated with median price and other measures. In simple terms,
the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual
properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling.
By separating each property comprising the index into its various formational and locational attributes, differing
observed sales values for each property can be separated into those associated with varying attributes and
those resulting from changes in the underlying residential property market. Also, by understanding the value
associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of
dwellings with known characteristics for which there is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and
sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in the market value of
the stock of residential property comprising an index can be accurately tracked through time. RP Data owns and
maintains Australia's largest property related database in Australia which includes transaction data for every
home sale within every state and territory. RP Data augments this data with recent sales advice from real estate
industry professionals, listings information and attributes data collected from a variety of sources. For detailed
methodological information please visit www.rpdata.com
www.rpdata.com/indices Media enquiries: RP Data: Mitch Koper – 0417 771 778
www.rpdata.com/indices
The indices in grey shading have been designed for trading environments in partnership with the Australian Securities Exchange (www.asx.com.au). Indices under blue shading (Hobart,
Darwin, Canberra, Brisbane and the 8 capital city aggregate) are calculated under the same methodology however are not currently planned to be part of the trading environment.
*The median price is the middle price of all settled sales over the three months to the end of the final month. Median prices are provided as an indicator of what price a typical home sold
for over the most recent quarter. The median price has no direct relationship with the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index value. The change in the Index value over time reflects the
underlying capital growth rates generated by residential property in the relevant region.
The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index growth rates are not ordinarily influenced by capital expenditure on homes, compositional changes in the types of properties being transacted, or
variations in the type and quality of new homes manufactured over time. The RP Data-Rismark ‘index values’ are not, therefore, the same as the ‘median price’ sold during a given period.
See the methodology below for further details.
Methodology: The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that addresses the issue of compositional bias associated with
median price and other measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the
number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By separating each property comprising the index into its various formational and locational
attributes, differing observed sales values for each property can be separated into those associated with varying attributes and those resulting from changes in the underlying residential
property market. Also, by understanding the value associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of dwellings with known
characteristics for which there is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in
the market value of the stock of residential property comprising an index can be accurately tracked through time. RP Data owns and maintains Australia's largest property related database
in Australia which includes transaction data for every home sale within every state and territory. RP Data augments this data with recent sales advice from real estate industry
professionals, listings information and attribute data collected from a variety of sources. For detailed methodological information please visit www.rpdata.com
For more information on the RP Data-Rismark Indices, please go to http://www.rpdata.com
Media enquiries contact: Mitch Koper, National Media & Communications Manager 0417 771 778 or [email protected]
RP Data RP Data is the number one provider of property information, analytics and risk management services in Australia and New Zealand, 100 per cent owned by CoreLogic CLX– the world’s largest data and analytics provider. Through its expansive database, it attracts a strong and loyal customer base ranging from real estate agents, finance and banking organisations, government and consumers. RP Data combines public, contributory and propriety data to develop predictive decision-making analytics, coupled with its business services that bring insight and transparency to property markets. Backed by 30-years of history, RP Data is the holder of the country’s largest residential and commercial property database; this provides an excellent platform to electronically value very property in Australia on a weekly basis - on average 30 million valuations are generated each month. Recognised as a leader and an established player in the mortgage industry, RP Data continues to work with the Australian Finance and lending community to minimise risk and deliver value to consumers. Rismark International Rismark International ("Rismark") is a funds management and quantitative research business. It is dedicated to the development of intellectual property required to facilitate the creation of financial markets over the residential real estate asset class. Rismark also has a long history of advising Australian and overseas governments on the development of innovative economic policies as they relate to housing and financial markets. As a by-product of its quantitative research activities, Rismark has developed the technology and intellectual property underlying the market-leading RP Data-Rismark hedonic property price indices and related automated property valuation models (AVMs), amongst other things. For more information visit www.rismark.com.au.
Media enquiries: RP Data: Mitch Koper – 0417 771 778
Table 1: RP Data-Rismark Daily Home Value Index Results (Actual Results)
Capital Growth to 31 March 2013 Sydney Melbourne
Brisbane -
Gold Coast Adelaide Perth
Australia 5
Capitals
(ASX) Hobart Darwin Canberra Brisbane
Australia
8 Capitals
Table 1A: All Dwellings
Month 1.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% 3.4% 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 0.4% 1.0% 1.3%
Quarter 3.4% 2.5% 1.5% -0.5% 4.3% 2.7% 6.1% 2.4% 3.8% 1.9% 2.8%
Year-to-Date 3.4% 2.5% 1.5% -0.5% 4.3% 2.7% 6.1% 2.4% 3.8% 1.9% 2.8%
Year-on-Year 3.8% 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 5.8% 2.4% -1.2% 7.3% 3.4% 1.4% 2.4%
Total Return Year-on-Year 8.5% 4.1% 6.3% 4.7% 10.6% 6.8% 4.1% 13.9% 8.4% 6.4% 6.9%
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter $550,500 $475,000 $410,000 $373,000 $479,000 $460,000 $332,500 $516,713 $505,000 $415,000 $465,000
Table 1B: Houses
Month 1.7% 0.9% 0.8% -0.1% 3.3% 1.4% 2.5% 3.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.4%
Quarter 3.7% 2.5% 1.5% -0.8% 4.5% 2.7% 6.0% 4.5% 4.1% 1.9% 2.9%
Year-to-Date 3.7% 2.5% 1.5% -0.8% 4.5% 2.7% 6.0% 4.5% 4.1% 1.9% 2.9%
Year-on-Year 3.7% 0.6% 1.6% 0.3% 5.8% 2.4% -0.9% 7.8% 3.6% 1.6% 2.5%
Total Return Year-on-Year 8.3% 4.3% 6.5% 4.7% 10.7% 6.8% 4.4% 14.5% 8.6% 6.5% 6.9%
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter $620,000 $505,000 $447,000 $392,000 $492,000 $484,000 $360,000 $585,000 $535,000 $435,000 $485,000
Table 1C: Units
Month 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 0.7% 5.3% 0.8% 1.9% -0.7% -2.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Quarter 2.4% 2.3% 1.6% 3.5% 1.7% 2.3% 6.7% -6.1% 0.9% 2.1% 2.3%
Year-to-Date 2.4% 2.3% 1.6% 3.5% 1.7% 2.3% 6.7% -6.1% 0.9% 2.1% 2.3%
Year-on-Year 4.1% -1.6% -1.0% 0.4% 4.9% 1.8% -3.7% 4.9% 0.9% -0.3% 2.0%
Total Return Year-on-Year 9.4% 2.8% 4.4% 5.2% 10.2% 6.9% 1.3% 11.4% 6.7% 5.4% 7.1%
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter $488,000 $421,750 $340,000 $312,500 $420,000 $415,000 $260,000 $400,000 $414,000 $360,000 $420,000
Table 1D: Rental Yield Results
Houses 4.2% 3.6% 4.7% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1% 5.2% 6.0% 4.5% 4.7% 4.1%
Units 5.0% 4.4% 5.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% 6.3% 5.6% 5.6% 4.9%