rp data property pulse (13 june 2013)
TRANSCRIPT
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Market Update
This week we saw a bounce back in consumer confidence, with the release of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment
Survey. The Index, which previously slumped in April and May, rose by 4.7% in June and is now back into territory where optimism
appears to be outweighing pessimism. One of the questions on the survey is where consumers think the wisest place for their savings
is likely to be. The majority of respondents (34%) still think that a financial institution is the best place for their money (ie cash) and the
second most popular response (24.6%) was in real estate. 16% of respondents thought paying down debt was the best option and
8% were advocates of investing in shares.
While consumer confidence is once again looking healthier, business confidence hasnt seen a similar upturn. The National Australia Bank Business Confidence Index showed a slight improvement over May, however the reading remains negative indicating that
businesses are likely to remain relatively unmotivated to spend, hire or invest
Housing finance data was also released this week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data showed the number of owner
occupier loans rose by 0.8% in April while the value of investment loans rose by 1.1% to the highest level in five years. First home
buyers remain a relatively small proportion of the overall housing market, comprising just 14.3% of all owner occupier housing finance
commitments. As pointed out in our YouTube market update last week, the average size of a home loan has hardly moved over the
year, up by 2.6% compared with a year ago, which goes a long way towards explaining the sluggish value growth we are seeing
across the broader housing market.
The Australian dollar has come under increasing downwards pressure, trading at about US$0.95, down nearly 10% over the past
month. The lower dollar is a positive for Australian manufacturing, but also means the cost of imported items (including fuel prices)
will be more expensive and will likely drive inflation higher and potentially create some headwinds for the RBA when considering a
lower cash rate.
RP Data was monitoring 778 auctions across the capital cities last week and we collected results for 697 (90%) properties. The
number of auctions was substantially lower than normal due to the Queens Birthday long weekend. The clearance rate over the week took a dip, falling from 72.2% to 62.6% over the last week. The clearance rate at the same time last year was a paltry 42%,
highlighting just how far auction clearance rates and the match between buyer and seller expectations has improved over the year.
Australias largest auction market, Melbourne, recorded a clearance rate of 70% across 170 reported auction results, lower than the previous week where 79.7% of auctions were successful. The second largest auction market, Sydney, recorded a clearance rate of
67.7% across 319 reported results compared with a success rate of 75.2% the week before. Over the coming week we are expecting
a huge week of auctions, with 1,701 scheduled across the capital cities; the largest auction week since the first week of May when
there were 1,749 auctions held.
Each week RP Data collects the most comprehensive set of auction results available in Australia. Thank you to our vast network of real estate professionals who assist us with aggregating these results. The statistics show how
many auctions were reported by RP Data as well as the total number of auctions that were scheduled over the last week (due to the large number of auctions we are unable to report 100 percent of the results). Sold properties indicate those properties that were either successfully auctioned on the day, sold before the auction or sold after the auction. Properties Not Sold were either passed in at auction or withdrawn. The Market Activity Index monitors activity on the rpdata.com professional system including the volume of Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) reports being undertaken. On average, CMA volumes lead sales activity by about two months providing one of the most
timely leading indicators available in the residential property market.
Number of homes for sale Residential property listings advertised for sale over the month ending 09/06/2013 Note that sales listings are based on a rolling monthly count of unique properties that have been advertised for sale.
DISCLAIMER
In compiling this publication, rpdata.com has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources and RP Data does not warrant its accuracy or completeness. To the full extent allowed by law RP Data excludes
all liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of any part of the information in this publication. RP Data recommends that individuals undertake
their own research and seek independent financial advice before making any decisions. 2013 RP Data Ltd.
Capital city auction clearance rates
Week ending June 9, 2013 The number of new listings added to the national housing market was
down 0.8% last week, with 42,037 new properties made available for
sale. Across the capital cities new listings were down 1.1% over the
week.
Nationally RP Data is tracking 280,231 advertised properties which is
2.9% lower than at the same time last year. At the combined capital
city level we are tracking 123,111 property listings (7.0% lower than last
year).
The largest reduction in listings compared with a year ago has been in
Brisbane where there are now 17% fewer homes on the market. The
only cities where listings numbers are higher compared with the same
time last year is Melbourne (+7.5%) and Darwin (+2.4%).
Note: Our data acquisition is currently being updated for the ACT region.
Reported auctions 59
Reported auctions 3 Sold: 19
Sold: 1 Not Sold: 40
Not Sold: 2
Reported auctions 350
Sold: 231
Not Sold: 119
Reported auctions 32
Sold: 14
Not Sold: 18 Reported auctions 20
Sold: 11
Not Sold: 9
Reported auctions 53 Reported auctions 174 Reported auctions 6
Sold: 29 Sold: 119 Sold: 3
Not Sold: 24 Not Sold: 55 Not Sold: 3
Brisbane
32.2%
P erth
S ydney
43.8%
66.0%
Northern T erritory
33.3%
54.7% 68.4% 50.0%
Canberra
55.0%
Adelaide M elbourne T asmania
State Last month (same time last yr) Last month (same time last yr)
Qld 9,363 (11,202) 72,391 (84,044) $33,111,556,805 $82,778,892
NSW 11,632 (12,278) 70,518 (72,812) $35,528,252,193 $88,820,630
Vic 10,848 (10,967) 70,622 (64,894) $30,645,762,930 $76,614,407
WA 5,919 (5,494) 32,423 (31,669) $19,008,667,227 $47,521,668
SA 2,871 (2,972) 20,538 (19,112) $9,213,410,210 $23,033,526
NT 363 (402) 1,731 (1,817) $978,981,810 $2,447,455
Tas 1,041 (1,195) 12,008 (12,213) $3,329,998,874 $8,324,997
Aus 42,037 (45,010) 280,231 (288,530) $131,816,630,049 $329,541,575
New advertised listings Total advertised listings Approximate value
of total listed stock
Approx agents commission available
(based on 2.5% commission rate)
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For the year to March 2013, rpdata estimated that 400,209 house and unit sales occurred
nationally which is 2.3 per cent more sales than over the same period a year ago. However,
this is 8.8 per cent fewer sales compared with the five year average.
According to Mr Lawless, dwelling sales based on trend, have been rising since the housing
market bottomed out in May last year.
In fact, the number of house and unit sales transacted over the March quarter was the highest recorded since the three months ending November 2011, Mr Lawless said.
Across the capital cities, Perth and Darwin were the only two areas where transaction
numbers over the year to March 2013 were higher than their respective five-year average
number of sales.
In Perth, where market conditions were previously very soft prior to 2012, dwelling sales are
now tracking 15.4 per cent higher than the five-year average; Perth house sales jumped by
25 per cent over the past twelve months alone.
Darwin has also shown a significant increase in house sales over the past year, rising by just
over 15 per cent to be almost 2 per cent higher than the five-year average number of sales.
The capital cities where transactions are the lowest relative to their five-year average sales
rate are Hobart (-17.1%), Canberra (-17.0%) and Melbourne (-15.0%).
Popular properties where demand for residential property is currently higher than average A five-year hiatus for property sales over the past half decade is beginning to show signs of change with rpdatas national research director Tim Lawless today reporting that based on a recent analysis of sales, there are now some regions showing
substantial improvement in transaction volumes.
DISCLAIMER In compiling this publication, rpdata.com has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources and RP Data does not warrant its accuracy or completeness. To the full extent allowed by law RP Data
excludes all liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of any part of the information in this publication. RP Data recommends that individuals undertake
their own research and seek independent financial advice before making any decisions. 2012 RP Data Ltd.
National Media Release RP Data Weekly Property Pulse Released: Wednesday 12 June 2013
Brimbank, VIC 2,145 3,088 3,117 -30.5% -31.2%
Bass Coast, VIC 819 1,184 1,242 -30.8% -34.1%
Glenorchy, TAS 651 950 1,122 -31.4% -42.0%
Macedon Ranges, VIC 482 705 710 -31.6% -32.1%
Sorell, TAS 216 316 384 -31.7% -43.7%
Central Coast, TAS 267 392 468 -31.8% -42.9%
Moorabool, VIC 317 473 455 -32.9% -30.3%
Circular Head, TAS 111 166 203 -33.0% -45.5%
Glenelg, VIC 212 320 375 -33.7% -43.5%
South Gippsland, VIC 355 545 568 -34.9% -37.5%
Golden Plains, VIC 106 165 184 -35.7% -42.4%
Moyne, VIC 152 239 251 -36.3% -39.3%
Hepburn, VIC 200 326 329 -38.7% -39.2%
Brighton, TAS 169 278 323 -39.2% -47.6%
Melbourne, VIC 2,892 4,891 4,664 -40.9% -38.0%
Murrindindi, VIC 134 227 274 -41.0% -51.0%
South Burnett, QLD 350 597 761 -41.4% -54.0%
Port Hedland, WA 137 243 258 -43.6% -46.9%
Isaac, QLD 252 458 469 -45.0% -46.3%
Roebourne, WA 144 264 340 -45.4% -57.6%
Council regionNo. sales year
to Mar '13
No. sales
5yr Avg
No. sales
10yr Avg
No. sales year to
Mar '13 v 5yr Avg
No. sales year to
Mar '13 v 10yr Avg
Busselton, WA 830 643 835 29.1% -0.7%
Gloucester, NSW 110 85 96 28.9% 14.3%
Serpentine-Jarrahdale, WA 342 269 272 27.0% 25.6%
Murray, WA 264 213 270 23.7% -2.3%
Rockingham, WA 2,847 2,329 2,943 22.2% -3.3%
East Fremantle, WA 175 146 165 19.8% 6.3%
Stirling, WA 5,648 4,723 5,284 19.6% 6.9%
Augusta-Margaret River, WA 264 222 303 18.7% -12.7%
Mandurah, WA 2,083 1,762 2,285 18.2% -8.8%
Cottesloe, WA 185 158 176 17.1% 5.1%
Bayswater, WA 1,636 1,408 1,601 16.2% 2.2%
Fremantle, WA 689 593 676 16.2% 2.0%
Gosnells, WA 1,986 1,718 2,157 15.6% -7.9%
Kiama, NSW 532 461 438 15.5% 21.5%
Subiaco, WA 458 397 503 15.3% -8.9%
Mundaring, WA 653 569 724 14.8% -9.8%
Mount Isa, QLD 508 444 601 14.4% -15.4%
Kwinana, WA 700 613 825 14.3% -15.1%
Cambridge, WA 668 586 703 14.0% -4.9%
Bassendean, WA 332 292 324 13.6% 2.5%
Greater Hume Shire, NSW 156 138 173 13.2% -9.8%
Claremont, WA 195 174 212 12.3% -7.9%
Greater Taree, NSW 989 882 971 12.1% 1.9%
Swan, WA 2,398 2,141 2,609 12.0% -8.1%
Melville, WA 2,024 1,817 2,131 11.4% -5.0%
Wanneroo, WA 3,657 3,288 3,995 11.2% -8.5%
Unincorporated NSW, NSW 351 316 474 11.1% -26.0%
Armadale, WA 1,473 1,333 1,561 10.5% -5.6%
Harvey, WA 424 385 517 10.2% -17.9%
Victoria Park, WA 994 903 1,045 10.1% -4.9%
Rolling 12 month number of sales versus 5 year average,
National
Source: rpdata
Source: rpdata *Includes only those council regions that have recorded at least 100 sales over the past 12 months.
Annual sales to March 2013 versus five year average
number of sales, Australian capital cities
Top 30: Council regions where dwelling sales are higher over the past year
compared with 5 year average*
Council regions where dwelling sales are the lowest over the past year
compared with 5 year average
Source: rpdata A relatively soft level of buyer demand is demonstrated by the fact that the number of house and unit sales was lower over
the year to March 2013 across each of these cities compared
with the previous twelve months, Mr Lawless said.
At a more granular level, Mr Lawless analysis shows that there were 60 council regions across the country where
dwelling sales over the year to March 2013 where higher than
the five-year average.
Based on the council specific data, Mr Lawless confirmed that
regions in Western Australian are bouncing back to an above
average rate of sale, particularly council regions within the
Perth metro area.
Of the sixty council regions that were recording an above
average number of sales over the year to March 2013; 37
(62%) were in Western Australia, 17 (28%) were in New South
Wales, 3 (5%) were in the Northern Territory, 2 were in South
Australia (3%) and 1 was in Queensland.
According to Mr Lawless, an interesting trend is emerging
across those areas where the number of sales is tracking
significantly below the five year average.
There were 53 council areas across the country where the number of dwelling sales over the year to March 2013 was
tracking more than 25 per cent lower than the five-year
average. Nearly half (47%) of these regions were located in
Victoria and almost 20 per cent were located in Tasmania.
This highlights the relatively sedate housing market conditions
in these states compared with their five year average, Mr Lawless said.
The three Councils recording the most significant slowdown in
sales over the year to March 2013 compared with their five-
year average are all key mining regions:
Shire of Roebourne which includes the suburbs surrounding Karratha recorded 144 sales over the year to March 2013;
45% lower than the five year average.
Queenslands Isaac Regional Council, which is home to the coal mining towns of Moranbah, Clermont, Dysart and Nebo
(amongst others), recorded 252 sales over the year to March
2013; 45% lower than the five year average.
Port Hedland the heavyweight of the mining towns showed that transactions have slowed from a five-year average of 243
sales down to 137 over the year ending March 2013.
The slowdown in these mining regions shouldnt come as a great surprise considering weaker commodity prices and a
slowing of infrastructure projects associated with the mining
sector, Mr Lawless said.