route 11 traffic & toll revenue study

7/28/2019 Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study

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Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study

Tom Maziarz, CT DOT

presentation to

Greenway CommissionSECCOG, June 19, 2013

PreliminaryFindings


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Route 11

Extension

Route 11(existing)

Toll Revenue Study

Part of Financial Plan

Financial plan requirement

to demonstrate ability to pay

sources & amounts of funding

timelines for funding availability

Toll Revenue Study

Can tolling generate enoughrevenue to pay a meaningfulportion of the cost?

Scope of Tolling Study:

wide range of tolling options

broad geographic scope


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Driver Survey

Sites

Tolling Study

Consultant:

expertise & experience in tollingstudies

Analysis based on:

extensive data collection

traffic modeling special survey of drivers

special toll assessment methods

Planning-Level Results:

reasonable estimates of revenue

investment-grade analysis istypically next step if planning studyindicates good revenue potential


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4

Cost & Financing Assumptions:

Cost:

$1.4 Billion to construct

Financing:

Bond full amount (for comparative purposes)

Annual debt payment = $121 Million


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5

Variety of tolling options evaluatedToll collection methods:

Cash & electronic

Electronic onlyToll rates

What is traveler willing to pay?

What rate yields best revenue?

Back-office & administrative functions

How do you manage day-to-day collection, processing, &administration of system?

For planning purposes we used:

Lowest cost collection & back-office options

o all-electronic collection

o private contractor services Best rate for revenue

o about $0.20 per mile

higher rate will trigger: more toll avoidance & lower revenue

common rate on many new facilities

o $1.00 or $2.00 flat rate at interchange


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What was geographic scope?

Toll collection locations:

Route 11 extension

Locations beyond 8.5 mile project

o Existing Route 11

o Route 2 (alternative to Route 11)

o Interchange of Rt 11, I-95, I-395

Why we explored broad geographic scope

Need to consider alternate routes &diversions

Understanding full range of revenue options& yields leads to better informed decisions

Interchange

Route 2

Route 11extension

Route 11

(existing)


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1. Route 11: extension only toll the 8-mile Route 11 extension only.

2. Route 11: extension + existing

toll all 16 miles of Route 11 (existing plus extension).

3. Route 11 (all) & Route 2

toll all 16 miles of Route 11 plus 13 miles of Route 2.

4. Routes 11 extension & I-95 interchange

toll Route 11 extension plus I-95/I-395 interchange.

5. I-95 interchange only

toll I-95/I-395/Route 11 interchange only

Toll Location Alternatives

7


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ChestnutHill Rd.

ScottHill Rd.

HaughtonRd.

FitchvilleRd.

OtrobandoAve.

BozrahSt.

NorwichAve.

WawecusSt.

WitchMeadow

Rd.

East

HaddamRd.

ParumRd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395

HartfordTpke.

TurnerRd.

ChesterfieldRd.

GrassyHill Rd.

FlandersRd.

161

39595

95

395

354

Toll Location Alternatives:

Alternative 1Route 11: Extension Only

Variations Tested:

toll rates: (permile)o $0.20 **

o $0.15

o $0.10

o $0.05collection methods:o electronic with cash option

o electronic only**

All Electronic Tolls (AET)

** $0.20 & AET assumed for all

alternatives presented

toll


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Revenues:

$5.9 million annually (gross)

Low revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost

Traffic:

Toll on Rt 11 extension discourages drivers from

using Rt 11 extension

60-70% of drivers remain on Route 85

Alternative 1 Route 11 Extension Only

Findings

9


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Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry

10

Alternative 1Route 11 Extension Only

2011

current

traffic

2020

Build

no toll

2020

Build

with tollRoute 85 15,000 2,900 11,900

Route 11 0 18,700 7,700

Corridor total 15,000 21,600 19,600

EastHaddamRd.

ParumRd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395

HartfordTpke.Turner

Rd.

GrassyHill Rd.

95

95

161

11

11

82

85

2 354

about 9,000 cars

return to Rt 85

Tolling removes less traffic

from Route 85.

Conclusion: Not viable alternative

Does not remove sufficient trafficfrom Route 85

Very low revenue potential


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Revenues:

$8.5 million annually (gross)

Low revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost

Traffic:

Problem: toll adds traffic to Route 85 (north of Rt 82)

Alternative 2 Route 11: Extension plus Existing

Findings

12


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Alternative 2Route 11: extensionplusexisting

ParumRd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395

HartfordTpke.Turner

Rd.

GrassyHill Rd.

95

95

161

11

11

82

2354

85 85

Conclusion: Alt 2 is nota viable option given low revenues & local traffic impacts

2011

currenttraffic

2020

Buildno toll

2020

Buildwith toll

Route 85 2,400 1,600 8,600

Route 11 9,700 15,300 5,300

Corridor total 12,100 16,900 13,900

Tolling existing Rt 11

adds traffic to Route 85(1,600 to 8,600)



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ChestnutHill Rd.

ScottHill Rd.

HaughtonRd.

FitchvilleRd.

OtrobandoAve.

BozrahSt.

NorwichAve.

WawecusSt.

Witch

MeadowRd.

East

HaddamRd.

ParumRd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395

HartfordTpke.

TurnerRd.

ChesterfieldRd.

GrassyHill Rd.

FlandersRd.

39595

95

395

161

354


Alternative3Route 11 (all) + Route 2

toll

toll

toll

same as Alt 2, but adds a toll to Route 2


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16

Alternative 3 - Toll Route 11 plus Route 2

ParumRd.

NewLondon

Rd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

ChestnutHillRd. Scott

HillRd.

HaughtonRd.

FitchvilleRd.

BozrahSt.

NorwichAve.

395

232

32

11

354

tolling Rt 2 diverts 18,100drivers to other roads

(Rt 2 drops from 33,100 to 15,300)

2011

currenttraffic

2020

Buildno toll

2020

Buildwith toll

Route 2 27,200 33,100 15,300



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17

Where do the

18,100 cars go?

ParumRd.

NewLondon Rd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

ChestnutHillRd. Scott

Hill

Rd.

FitchvilleRd.

BozrahSt.

Norwich Ave.

395

232

3211

354

Route 82:4-5 miles south

Diversion routes

Volume

Diverted

Norwich Av -Fitchville Rd 6,700

Route 82 4,500

Route 32 3,600

Other Local Roads 2,000

I-395 1,300

18,100

Conclusion: Despite revenue potential, Alt. 3 is not viable option.


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ChestnutHill Rd.

ScottHill Rd.

HaughtonRd.

FitchvilleRd.

OtrobandoAve.

BozrahSt.

NorwichAve.

WawecusSt.

Witch

MeadowRd.

East

HaddamRd.

ParumRd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395

HartfordTpke.

TurnerRd.

ChesterfieldRd.

GrassyHill Rd.

FlandersRd.

39595

95

395

161

354


Alternative 4Route 11 extension + Interchange

tolltoll

same as Alt 1, but adds toll to 95/395/11 interchange


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Revenues: $46 - $78 million annually (gross)

o $46 million = $1.00 toll at interchange (plus $0.20/mile on Route 11 extension)

o $78 million = $2.00 toll at interchange (plus $0.20/mile on Route 11 extension)

High revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost

Note: Federal law currently prohibits adding tolls to an Interstate highway unless it is part of aspecial pilot program. However, federal transportation act must be reauthorized in less than 2

years and restrictions might be changed.

Traffic:

Route 85: Results similar to Alt 1 (tolls on Rt 11 extension only). Placing a toll on

Route 11fails to remove the desired amount of traffic from Route 85.

I-95 & I-395: Diversion from I-95 & I-395 (at $1.00 toll) is about 9% butfurther

analysis required.

Alternative 4 Route 11 Extension plus Interchange

Findings

19


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20

Alternative 4Route 11 Extensionplus Interchange

EastHaddam

Rd.

ParumRd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395Hartford

Tpke.TurnerRd.

ChesterfieldRd.

GrassyHillRd. Flanders

Rd.

95

95

161

11

11

82

85

2354

Toll at

interchange

= $1.00

Toll on Rt 11

= $0.20/mileMainline Toll Zone / Gantry

Ramp Toll Zone / Gantry

Route 85 &Route 11 volumes2011

current

traffic

2020Build

no toll

2020Build

with toll

Route 85 15,000 1,300 11,500

Route 11 0 22,900 9,200

Corridor total 15,000 24,200 20,700

about 10,000 cars

return to Route 85

Tolling Rt 11removes less

traffic from Route 85.


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21


2020

Build

no toll

2020

Build

with toll

traffic

diverted

by toll

I-95 79,700 72,100 7,600 (10%)

I-395 27,400 25,000 2,400 (9%)

Corridor total 107,100 97,100 10,000 (9%)

tolling interchangediverts about 9% of traffic

from I-95 & I-395

EastHaddam

Rd.

ParumRd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395Hartford

Tpke.TurnerRd.

ChesterfieldRd.


Rd.

95

95

161

11

11

82

85

2354

Toll at

interchange

= $1.00

Toll on Rt 11

= $0.20/mileMainline Toll Zone / Gantry


I-95 & I-395 traffic volumes


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WitchMeadow

Rd.

EastHaddam

Rd.

ParumRd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395

HartfordTpke.Turner

Rd.

ChesterfieldRd.


Rd.

95

95

161

11

1182

85

2354

22


Toll at interchange

= $1.00Toll on Rt 11

= $0.20/mile



Conclusion: Not viable alternative

Good revenue potential

But it does not remove sufficient trafficfrom Route 85


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ChestnutHill Rd.

ScottHill Rd.

HaughtonRd.

FitchvilleRd.

OtrobandoAve.

BozrahSt.

NorwichAve.

WawecusSt.

Witch

MeadowRd.

East

HaddamRd.

ParumRd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395

HartfordTpke.

TurnerRd.

ChesterfieldRd.

GrassyHill Rd.

FlandersRd.

39595

95

395

161

354


Alternative 5Interchange only

toll

Add a toll to 95/395/11 interchange only


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Revenues $38 - $69 million annual gross (versus $46-$78M for Alt 4)

o $38 million = $1.00 toll

o $69 million = $2.00 toll

high revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost

Note: Federal law currently prohibits adding tolls to an Interstate highwayunless it is part of a special pilot program. However, federal transportation act

must be reauthorized in less than 2 years and restrictions might be changed.

Traffic: Route 85: no impact from tolls

I-95 & I-395: Diversion from I-95 & I-395 (at $1.00 toll) is about 15% but

further analysis required.

Alternative 5 Interchange only

Findings

24


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25


2020

Build

no toll

2020

Build

with toll

traffic

diverted

by toll

I-95 79,700 68,200 11,500 (14%)

I-395 27,400 23,000 4,400 (16%)

Corridor total 107,100 91,200 15,900 (15%)



tolling interchange

diverts about 15% of traffic

from I-95 & I-395

WitchMeadow

Rd.

EastHaddam

Rd.

ParumRd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395

Hartford

Tpke.TurnerRd.

ChesterfieldRd.


Rd.

95

95

161

11

11

82

85

2354

Toll at

interchange

= $1.00


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26




WitchMeadow

Rd.

EastHaddam

Rd.

ParumRd.

LakeHayward

Rd.

DrFoote

Rd.

395

HartfordTpke.Turner

Rd.

ChesterfieldRd.


Rd.

95

95

161

11

11

82

85

2354

Toll at

interchange

= $1.00

Conclusion: Warrants further study.

Good revenue potential

Traffic impacts need further study.

o to identify which roads are impacted

o to determine if we can to reduce diversions


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$6.1

$6.0

$8.5

$51.0

$28.3

$54.0

$29.9

$19.5

$18.0

$9.5

$18.5

$10.4

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120

1 - Rt 11 Extension Only

Route 11

Route 2

I-95

I-395

$28.0

$46.3

$78.6

$5.9

$8.5

millions:

$37.8

$69.0

AnnualDebt

Service

$121 (1)

2 - Rt 11: Extension + Existing

3 - Rt 11 (all) + Rt 2

4A - Rt 11 Ext.+ Interchange ($1.00)

5A Interchange Only ($1.00)

4B - Rt 11 Ext. + Interchange ($2.00)

5B Interchange Only ($2.00)

Financial Summary:

Preliminary Estimates of Gross Toll Revenues(assumes all electronic tolling at $0.20/mile)

(1) $1.7 billion bond issue. Based on total 2020 estimated project cost & additional 30% for bond sales & capitalization

of interest cost. Assumes 30-year bond term, 24-year earning period, & 5% interest rate.


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1. Alternative 5 only potentially viable tolling option If tolling is to be part of financial plan, Alt 5 (or some variation) is most viable

2. Alternative 5 needs further analysis

Traffic impacts: requires detailed assessmento Where traffic is diverted to & why?

Are these long distance trips that will shift to Rt 9, Rt 44, Rt 6, ?

Are these shorter trips that will shift to local roads?

o Can these diversions be avoided or managed?

Adjust toll rates & policies

Highway exit & entrance location & design

Revenue estimate: update & revise revenue estimate as well

Conclusions

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Continue with full Route 11 scope of work (all 3 tracks):

1. Environmental analysis2. Design plans

3. Financial plan

Financial plan:

Traditional funding sources

o Federal & state

o Timelines for availability of funds

Additional tolling analysis for Alt 5 (or version of this)

o Detailed diversion analysiso Revised revenue analysis

o Public engagement

Phasing options

Next Steps

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route 11 traffic & toll revenue study

Documents