rosneft · selling, general and administrative expenses includepayroll at headquarters and...
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ROSNEFT
Q2 and 1H 2012 IFRS Financial Results
August 1, 2012
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Important Notice
The information contained herein has been prepared by the Company. The opinions presented herein are based ongeneral information gathered at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. The Company relies oninformation obtained from sources believed to be reliable but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
These materials contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Anystatement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact is a forward-looking statement that involves knownand unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements tobe materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. We assume no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflectactual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements.
This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for orpurchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever.No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on itscompleteness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion andchange. The contents of this presentation have not been verified by the Company. Accordingly, no representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its shareholders, directors,officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinionscontained in this presentation. None of the Company nor any of its shareholders, directors, officers or employees norany other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or itscontents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
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Q2’12 – challenges
Weak prices for crude and petroleum products
Negative export duty lag effect
FX loss
Q3-Q4’12 priorities
Meeting 2012 Business plan targets
Implementation of key investment projects in upstream and downstream segments
Continued cost control
Internal optimization
Key financial results in 1H’12:
Revenue – 1,466 RUB bln
EBITDA – 254 RUB bln
Net Income – 104 RUB bln
Free cash flow 25 RUB bln in Q2’12
Crude oil and gas production increased in by 2.0% and 7.3% 1H’12 vs. 1H’11, respectively
12.4% refining throughput growth in 1H’12 vs. 1H’11
Retail sales growth of 6.7 % in Q2’12 vs. Q1’12
Efficient lifting cost control
PositivesPositives Challenges, PrioritiesChallenges, Priorities
Q2’12 and 1H’12 Highlights
3
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Macroeconomic Environment
Q2’12 Q1’12 ∆, % 1H’12 1H’11 ∆, %
Average USD/RUB exchange rate 31.01 30.26 2.5% 30.64 28.62 7.1%
Inflation for the period, % 1.7% 1.5% 3.2% 5.0%
Urals FOB Primorsk, th. RUB/bbl 3.25 3.50 (7.1)% 3.38 3.06 10.5%
Gasoil 0.1% (FOB/CIF Med), th. RUB/tonne 28.70 30.16 (5.0)% 29.44 26.33 11.8%
Fuel oil 3.5% (FOB/CIF Med), th. RUB/tonne 19.53 20.64 (5.3)% 20.09 16.90 18.9%
High octane gasoline (av. Russia), th. RUB/tonne
25.08 23.07 8.7% 24.07 23.18 3.9%
Diesel (av. Russia), th. RUB/tonne (summer) 22.53 21.81 3.2% 22.17 18.69 18.7%
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Q2’12 and 1H’12 Results Overview
Q2’12 Q1’12 ∆, % 1H’12 1H’11 ∆, %
Hydrocarbon production, th. boe per day 2,621 2,634 (0.5)% 2,628 2,565 2.5%
Crude oil production, th. barrels per day 2,413 2,408 0.2% 2,410 2,362 2.0%
Gas production, bcm 3.22 3.50 (8.0)% 6.72 6.26 7.3%
Petroleum product output, mln t 13.67 14.83 (7.8)% 28.50 25.19 13.1%
Revenues, RUB bln 718 748 (4.0)% 1,466 1,239 18.3%
EBITDA, RUB bln 89 165 (46.1)% 254 346 (26.6)%
Net income, RUB bln (8) 112 - 104 190 (45.3)%
Operating cash flow1, RUB bln 146 72 102.8% 218 272 (19.9)%
Capital expenditures, RUB bln 121 118 2.5% 239 177 35.0%
Free cash flow, RUB bln 25 (46) - (21) 95 -
Net debt, RUB bln 658 527 24.9% 658 364 80.7%
1 Operating cash flow is adjusted for the effect from operations with trading securities as part of excess cash management (outflow of 1 RUB bln in Q2’12, inflow of 2 RUB bln in Q1’12, inflow of 1 RUB bln in 1H’12, outflow of 2 RUB bln in 1H’11).
5
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2,362
2,410 2,430
(8) (3) (2) (2)
50
12 1
1H'2011 Far East Southern Russia Timan-Pechora Western Siberia Vankor Other Eastern Siberia
Central Russia 1H'2012 July'12
+2.0%
Daily Crude Oil Production
mln bblDaily Crude Oil Production Reconciliation, 1H’12 vs. 1H’11 Daily Crude Oil Production Reconciliation, 1H’12 vs. 1H’11
‘000 bpd
6
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3.8%
2.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.1%
-1.1%
-2.4%
Gazprom Neft*
Rosneft
TNK-BP
Surgutneftegas
Tatneft
Slavneft
LUOIL (in Russia)
7
Daily Crude Oil Production (continued)
Daily Crude Oil Production in Russia, 1H’12 vs. 1H’11 Daily Crude Oil Production in Russia, 1H’12 vs. 1H’11
Russ
ia’s
ave
rage
+1.0
%
10,206
10,309
4818
37
10,000
10,100
10,200
10,300
10,400
10,500
1H'11 Rosneft Other integrated companies
Other companies
1H'12
Daily crude oil output in Russia, ‘000 bpd
+1.0%
* Not including share in Tomskneft.
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Yugansk: 2% ahead of plan in 1H’12
88
1,250
1,300
1,350
2010 2011 2012
Yuganskneftegaz Daily Crude Oil Production, ‘000 bpdYuganskneftegaz Daily Crude Oil Production, ‘000 bpd Strategic goal – to keep plateau production for a maximum period of time
1H’12 highlights:
Crude oil production – 33.2 mln t, or 2% higher than planned
Number of new wells – 444 (2012 plan – 927)
Jan Feb Nov DecSep OctAugMar Apr May Jun Jul
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Vankor:6% ahead of plan in 1H’12
99
Vankor crude oil production, ‘000 bpdVankor crude oil production, ‘000 bpd
0
100
200
300
400
500
Plan Actual
2012
Current output –356 th. bpd
Gradual launch of the Central oil treatment unit started
Jan Dec
Reaching full project capacity in 2013
1H’12 highlights:
Crude production – 8.4 mln t, or 6% higher than planned (2012 plan – 18 mln t)
Number of new wells – 41 (2012 plan – 76)
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Revenues Reconciliation, RUB bln
748
(36) 26 (24)(19) 16
3 2 2 718
Q1'12 Oil exports price Oil exports volume Product exports price
Product exports volume
Product domestic volume
Bunker fuel sales to end users
Petrochemicals Other Q2'12
1H’1
2 vs
. 1H
’11
1H’1
2 vs
. 1H
’11
Q2’
12 v
s. Q
1’12
Q2’
12 v
s. Q
1’12
-4.0%
1,239 62
1554
40 29(4)
6 24 2
(1)1,466
1H'11 Oil exports price Oil exports volume
Product export price
Product export volumes
Product domestic price
Product domestic volume
Bunker fuel sales to end
users
Petrochemicals Oil domestic market
Other 1H'12
+18.3%
10
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197.6 200.4 200.7
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q2'11 Q1'12 Q2'12
Europe and other directions Asia CIS Domestic
11
Crude Oil Sales
Crude Oil and Condensate Sales Volumes, mln bblCrude Oil and Condensate Sales Volumes, mln bbl Average Prices, th. RUB/bblAverage Prices, th. RUB/bbl
115.1 116.2125.1
Q2’11 Q1’12 Q1’12
Brent (dated) 3.28 3.59 3.36Urals (average CIF Med and NWE) 3.19 3.54 3.30
Rosneft export
Europe and other directions 3.15 3.51 3.20Asia 2.70 3.13 2.78
SalesProduction by subsidiaries
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2.45
2.762.66
2.88
3.302.99
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Q2'11 Q1'12 Q2'12
Western Siberia Southern Russia Far East Other
SalesProduction by subsidiaries
12
1.43
1.781.92
0
1
2
3
Q2'11 Q1'12 Q2'12
Other Far East Southern Russia
Western Siberia Average price
Gas Production and Sales
Gas Sales vs. Production, bcmGas Sales vs. Production, bcm Gas Sales Prices, th. RUB per 1,000 cubic metersGas Sales Prices, th. RUB per 1,000 cubic meters
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Non-controlled Expenses
1313
Q2’12 Q1’12 ∆, % 1H’12 1H’11 ∆, %
Urals FOB Novorossiysk USD/bbl 105.4 116.0 (9.1)% 110.7 107.1 3.4%
Urals FOB Novorossiysk th.RUB/t 23.91 25.68 (6.9)% 24.81 22.43 10.6%
Export customs duty th.RUB/t 13.74 12.13 13.3% 12.93 11.30 14.4%
Yugansk – Novorossiysk tariff th.RUB/t 1.49 1.49 - 1.49 1.44 3.5%
MET th.RUB/t 4.83 5.28 (8.5)% 5.06 4.28 18.2%
Total non-controlled costs th.RUB/t 20.06 18.89 6.1% 19.48 17.02 14.5%
Non-controlled costs / Urals FOB Novorossiysk
% 83.9% 73.5% 78.5% 75.9%
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Upstream Margins, RUB/bbl
RUB/bbl
* Assuming Urals price of 100 USD/bbl and exchange rate of 32.0 USD/RUB in August and September.
1,045 1,201 1,200905 779
5991,020 967 1,000
698727 741
704670
601
663 635 635
1,7121,608 1,650
1,8571,875
1,887
1,6421,597 1,565
1,149
761
996
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12* Sep-12*
Net export revenue before transport MET Export duty Average net export revenue for the quater
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Export Duty Lag Effect, RUB bln
147
126
165
89
30
60
90
120
150
180
Q1'12 Q2'12
Normalized EBITDA Actual EBITDA Lag effect
18
-37
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-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
16
Petroleum Product Prices & Refining Margin
16
Petroleum product prices*, RUB per tonnePetroleum product prices*, RUB per tonne Net Refining margin, RUB per bblNet Refining margin, RUB per bbl
Net refining margin = weighed average refinery gate price ofpetroleum products produced from 1 bbl of crude oil minus weightedaverage crude export netback, minus refinery operating expenses.
* Weighed average refinery-gate net price.
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
Premium gasoline (domestic) Naphta (export)
Diesel (domestic) Diesel (export)
Fuel oil (domestic) Fuel oil (export)
-42
375
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48%
44%
1,667
1,594
1,489; 1%
1,650
I кв. 2012I кв. 2012 II кв. 2012II кв. 2012
Non-Transneft exports
1,188
1,279; 1%
1,134
2,343; 3%
1,472
Netback Ladder*, RUB/bbl
Q1’12Q1’12 Q2’12Q2’12
* Excluding German refineries.
Sales
volumes
Domestic sales
CIS Transneft export
Rosneft refineries
Transneft exports
5%
2,598; 2%
5%
40%
51%
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Crude Oil Netbacks, RUB/bbl
1,425
1,677 1,706
1,2511,124
879
1,7101,824 1,818
1,4411,246
1,065
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
netback (Primorsk and Novorossiysk) netback (ESPO)
average price (Primorsk and Novorossiysk) average price (ESPO)
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Expenses Dynamics
Upstream Operating Expenses, RUB/bbl of oil producedUpstream Operating Expenses, RUB/bbl of oil produced Refining Operating Expenses, RUB/bbl of oil processedRefining Operating Expenses, RUB/bbl of oil processed
SG&A Expenses, RUB/bbl of oil producedSG&A Expenses, RUB/bbl of oil produced Transportation Expenses, RUB/bbl of oil producedTransportation Expenses, RUB/bbl of oil produced
8979
93 9488 88
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12
6271
81 85 89104
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12
55 58
7178 76
89
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12
284 279251
273299 289
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12
Cost per tonne was calculated using actual expenses without roundingUpstream operating expenses include materials and electricity, workover, wages and salaries, and cost of transport to a trunk pipeline.Selling, general and administrative expenses include payroll at headquarters and management-related subsidiaries, payroll of top management of operating subsidiaries, audit & consulting expenses, bad debt allowance and other costs.Transportation costs include costs to transport crude oil for refining and to end customers, and to deliver petroleum products from refineries to end customers (cost of pipeline and railroad transportation, handling, port fees, sea freight and other costs).
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Interest Expense
20
RUB bln Q2’12 Q1’12 Q2'11 Q1’11
1. Interest accrued according to loan agreements 7.0 5.7 4.9 5.1
2. Interest paid (cash) 6.6 5.6 4.9 8.1
3. Change in interest payables (1-2) 0.4 0.1 0.0 (3.0)
4. Interest capitalized* 5.7 4.6 3.0 2.8
5. Interest SWAP loss/(gain) 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.0
6. Debt issue cost 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
7. Other 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.4
8. Interest expense as reflected in P&L (1-4+5+6+7) 2.4 2.3 3.6 3.9
* Capitalized interests are estimated in accordance with FASB ASC 835-20 ‘Capitalization of interest’.The capitalization rate is calculated by dividing interest expenses on loans related to capital expenditures by the average balance of these loans. Interests capitalized are calculated by multiplying the average balance of construction in progress by the capitalization rate.
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FX (loss)/gain
21
31 Mar.12USD mln
30 Jun.12USD mln
Average monetary position
FX gain,RUB bln
Cash in foreign currencies 2,384 2,255 2,319 9
Accounts receivable and payable and other monetary items in foreign currencies
7,910 5,729 6,819 24
Deposits in foreign currencies 851 352 602 2
Long-term loans and borrowings in foreign currencies
(19,948) (22,488) (21,218) (74)
FX loss (39)
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EBITDA and Net Income per bbl ReconciliationQ2’12 vs. Q1’12
EBIT
DA
, RU
B/bb
lEB
ITD
A, R
UB/
bbl
Net
Inco
me,
RU
B/bb
lN
et In
com
e, R
UB/
bbl
823
(155)
(172) 26 10(79)
(10)
443
Q1'12 Revenue Taxes Crude oil and petroleum product purchases
Transport OPEX Other Q2'12
559
(380)
5170 (25)
(324)
(46)
(41)
Q1'12 EBITDA DD&A Income tax Equity share FX Other Q2'12
-107.3%
-46.2%
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145127
65
68
419
Источники Использование
219251
58
68
8038
Источники Использование
23
Sources and Uses of Cash, RUB bln
1H’121H’12 Q2’12Q2’12
CAPEX andinterest
Decrease in cash andother ST investments
Net increase of debt
Operations
Decrease in cash and ST investments
Acquisition and sale of assets
Net increase of debt
CAPEX andinterest
Acquisition and sale of assets
Operations
Shares buyback
Shares buyback
UsesSources UsesSources
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270
10
(78)17
219
1H'11 Increase in WC in 1H'11 Change in NI, adjusted for non-cash items
Decrease in WC in 1H'12 1H'12
1H`1
2 vs
1H’1
11H
`12
vs1H
’11
Q2’
12 v
sQ
1’12
Q2’
12 v
sQ
1’12
74
69 (83) 86
(1)
145
Q1'12 Increase in WC in Q1'12 Change in NI, adjusted for non-cash items
Decrease in WC in Q2'12 Result from operations with trading securities
Q2'12
Operating Cash Flow Reconciliation, RUB bln
24
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118
121
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
25
Capital Expenditures
* Other includes net change in construction materials.
USD mln
2010 2011 2012П
Upstream Vankor Other Upstream Refining
Marketing Other*
389
271
~480RUB bln
20112012
RUB bln
81
97
80
133
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497
(218)251
68
38*
22
658
Adjusted net debt as of December 31, 2011
Adjusted operating cash flow
CAPEX and interest paid Cash paid for acquisition of treasury shares
Acquisitions of share capital, licenses
Forex effect and acquisitions of other financial assets, net
Adjusted net debt as of June 30, 2012
RUB bln
Net debt as of December 31, 2011 and as of June 30, 2012 is adjusted for short and medium term bank deposits and other short-term investments of RUB 85 bln and of RUB 29 bln as a part of the excess cash management.
Operating cash flow is adjusted for the operations with trading securities as a part of the excess cash management.
* Acquisitions of additional shares in subsidiaries and equity investees, licenses, net of fixed assets disposal.
Net Debt Reconciliation
26
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Credit Profile
Jun. 30, 2012
Dec. 31,2011
Total debt, RUB bln 825 748
Net debt, RUB bln 658 497
Long-term debt, % 83.5% 79.7%
USD denominated debt, % 82.3% 84.5%
Gearing (Net Debt to Net Debt + Equity)
24.2% 19.4%
Weighted av. cost of debt 4.1% 3.8%
LTM EBITDA interest coverage 23.1 31.2
Net debt / LTM EBITDA 1.19 0.77
Repayment profile, RUB blnRepayment profile, RUB bln
S&P BBB- (credit watch negative)
Moody’s Ваа1 (stable)
Fitch BBB (stable)
Credit ratingCredit rating36.8 28.6 27.7
56.9
108.7
516.1
2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 and later
Repaid as of June 30, 2012 To be repaid
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Cash Management
Rosneft’s total cash position including cash and equivalents and short-term investments related to cash management was RUB 200.3 bln as of June 30, 2012
Cash management is based on analysis of different alternatives (including risk analysis) to choose the best investment for a specific period of time
Cash portfolio includes:
– RUB 138.0 bln of cash and equivalents
– RUB 7.0 bln of short-term structured deposits denominated in foreign currency placed in leading local bank
– RUB 8.0 bln of short-term deposits denominated in RUB and FCY placed in leading local and foreign banks
– RUB 14.0 bln of short-term investments into state and corporate bonds and other securities
– RUB 33.3 bln of short-term securities (are not included in net debt calculation)
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Q2’12 and 1H`12 IFRS Financial Results
Appendix
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EBITDA and Net Income per bbl Reconciliation1H’12 vs. 1H’11
EBIT
DA
, RU
B/bb
lEB
ITD
A, R
UB/
bbl
Net
Inco
me,
RU
B/bb
lN
et In
com
e, R
UB/
bbl
882496 (466)
(179)
(14) (50) (26) (10)633
1H'11 Revenue Taxes Purchases Transport OPEX SG&A Other 1H'12
-28.2%
484
(249)
1 5 78
20
(81) 1 259
1H'11 EBITDA DD&A Interest Income tax Equity share FX Other 1H'12
-46.5%
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Transportation Costs Q2’12 vs. Q1’12
60 58
Q1'12 Volume Mix Q2'12
Seasonal increase in FCA sales
1312
Q1'12 Volume Mix Q2'12
Total Transportation Costs, RUB blnTotal Transportation Costs, RUB bln Transportation Costs for Crude Exports, RUB blnTransportation Costs for Crude Exports, RUB bln
Transportation Costs for Crude Deliveries to Refineries, RUB blnTransportation Costs for Crude Deliveries to Refineries, RUB bln
Transportation Costs for Product Exports, RUB blnTransportation Costs for Product Exports, RUB bln
1614
Q1'12 Volume Mix Q2'12
2527
Q1'12 Volume Mix Q2'12
Seasonal turnarounds at refineries
Seasonal increase in FCA salesSeasonal refineries turnarounds