Rose Aiko & Abel KinyondoRose Aiko & Abel Kinyondo

2323rdrd October 2013, Mayfair Hotel October 2013, Mayfair Hotel

EXPERIENCE OF CRIME, CRIME REPORTING AND READINESS TO SEEK EXPERIENCE OF CRIME, CRIME REPORTING AND READINESS TO SEEK

POLICE ASSISTANCE: TANZANIA AND OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES IN POLICE ASSISTANCE: TANZANIA AND OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES IN

COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVECOMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

In this session• Why this analysis• About the Afrobarometer• Key findings and food for thought• Recommendation & areas for

further research

Why this analysis• Public safety and security (people and properties)

essential for sustainable socioeconomic progress• Tanzania media reports and anecdotal evidence

attest to a rise in magnitude and severity of crime• Successful mitigation and control dependent on

cooperation between law enforcers and citizens (including through crime reporting)

• Police force in major drive to reform:– What observable contribution in everyday lives of people? – what needs to change?

Why this analysis…• Harness the power of popular opinion for

reform:– Progress—how we compare overtime and with other

countries• Help gauge strong and weak points in safety and security

building (what works; what to change)• Prompt debate: are we taking the right steps/smartest

decision for people’s safety and security?

– Ultimately popular opinion of performance of governments and their functionaries influences public support

About the Afrobarometer• A comparative series of public opinion surveys that measure

public attitudes toward democracy, governance, the economy, leadership, identity, and other related issues

• Run Africa—based network of researchers and analysts

• Goal: To give the public a voice in policy making processes by providing high-quality public opinion data to policy-makers, policy advocates and civil society organizations, academics, media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans

• In each country there is a National Partner responsible for survey implementation. In Tanzania, the National Partner is REPOA

• Standard survey instrument across all countries for comparability.

• Representative national random sample in each country.

• Round 5 (2011—2013): 35 Countries

Key findings • Experience and fear of crime—trends,

and comparisons• Engaging citizens in crime mitigation

• Crime reporting • Readiness to seek police intervention• Main reasons why crime is not reported to

police• Pointers from regression analysis

I: EXPERIENCE AND FEAR OF CRIME—TRENDS, AND COMPARISONS

• Experience of crime questions:• Over the past year, how often, if ever, have you or anyone in

your family: • Been physically attacked?• Had something stolen from your house?

• Fear of crime questions:• Over the past year, how often, if ever, have you or anyone in

your family: • Feared crime in your own home?• Felt unsafe walking in your neighbourhood?

Tanzania: Experience of crime, 2003—2012

• rise in theft and attacks in 2012• higher frequency per individual

Tanzania: Fear of crime in the home, 2003—2012

Rise (5% points overall) in anxiety about crime in homes in 2012, after improvement in 2005—2008.

Tanzania: Fear of crime–home vs. in the neighbourhood, 2012

• Elevated fear of crime in the home compared to fear of crime in the neighborhood

• Women generally more fearful than men (not shown here)

Experience and fear of crime—Tanzania and Africa, Round 5

Tanzania not particularly safer than other African countries (much higher fear than in many other parts of Africa)

Round 5: Best and worst rated on people safety

• Best: reporting lowest experience of crime and anxiety (Mauritius, Niger, Algeria, Ghana, Benin)

• Worst: reporting highest experience of crime and anxiety (Tanzania, South Africa, Cameroon, Liberia, Swaziland).

**Mean score is a simple mean of proportion of respondents experiencing each type of crime and expressing anxiety about safety

II: ENGAGING CITIZENS IN CRIME MITIGATION (ROUND 5)

Questions to gauge engagement :•Crime reporting

o [If respondent answered “Yes” to experience of crime question, asked] Was any such incident reported to the police?

•Readiness to seek police assistanceo If you were a victim of crime in this country, who, if anyone, would you go to

first for assistance? [police one of the response options]

•Reasons people don’t report crimes to policeo Some people say that many crimes are never reported to the police. Based

on your experience, what do you think is the main reason that many people do not report crimes like thefts or attacks to the police when they occur? [response options given]

Crime reporting, country comparisons

-Algeria, Mauritius, Zimbabwe has highest reporting rates-Tanzania reporting rate => Africa average, 42%-Reporting is just a step of many in mitigation

Tanzania: Major reasons why crimes are not reported to police

• Survey data shows police stations are few/too far in comparison to many other countries

Enumeration Areas (EAs) with Police station within easy reach, by Country

• Benin and Niger, comparable to Tanzania in proximity of police stations but performs significantly better than Tanzania in people safety

• Suggest there is more to people safety than proximity to police stations.

Readiness to seek police assistance

What regression analysis shows: Crime Reporting in Tanzania

.

_cons -.857624 .4198311 -2.04 0.041 -1.680478 -.0347702 Region -.1635486 .1901609 -0.86 0.390 -.5362572 .2091601Interaction6 1.325594 .3939556 3.36 0.001 .5534555 2.097733Ordunpunis~d -.4717733 .1562316 -3.02 0.003 -.7779816 -.1655649 Nomedicare .4692744 .1733113 2.71 0.007 .1295905 .8089584 Gender -.3667257 .1385417 -2.65 0.008 -.6382625 -.095189 Alternative .4872418 .1784925 2.73 0.006 .1374029 .8370807 Coruption .7679754 .3316284 2.32 0.021 .1179957 1.417955 Trust -.5791653 .1439391 -4.02 0.000 -.8612806 -.2970499 Attacked .6112156 .3005815 2.03 0.042 .0220867 1.200345 Stolen .6560034 .1803253 3.64 0.000 .3025722 1.009435 Proximity .4548812 .2124385 2.14 0.032 .0385094 .8712531 Report Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] Robust

Log pseudolikelihood = -593.71276 Pseudo R2 = 0.0720 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Wald chi2(11) = 82.25Logistic regression Number of obs = 926

What regression analysis shows: Readiness to Seek Police Intervention in TZ

_cons -1.528763 .1812008 -8.44 0.000 -1.88391 -1.173616 Region -.4635384 .1583994 -2.93 0.003 -.7739956 -.1530813Interaction5 .9399593 .2933651 3.20 0.001 .3649744 1.514944Judicialtr~t -.3423603 .1302032 -2.63 0.009 -.5975539 -.0871666 Television .5189581 .1417946 3.66 0.000 .2410458 .7968704 Newspapers .395237 .1404687 2.81 0.005 .1199235 .6705505 Roadquality .2803825 .1213905 2.31 0.021 .0424614 .5183036 Education .3401064 .0990736 3.43 0.001 .1459257 .5342872 Employment .4544457 .1133297 4.01 0.000 .2323237 .6765677 Easeness .750133 .1125738 6.66 0.000 .5294924 .9707735 Trust -.3082507 .1182389 -2.61 0.009 -.5399946 -.0765067 Attacked .3849574 .1658421 2.32 0.020 .0599129 .7100019 Stolen -.3269507 .17023 -1.92 0.055 -.6605954 .0066941 Proximity .6007633 .1905994 3.15 0.002 .2271953 .9743314 Readness Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] Robust

Log pseudolikelihood = -998.64646 Pseudo R2 = 0.1180 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Wald chi2(13) = 208.67Logistic regression Number of obs = 1665

What regression analysis shows: Crime Reporting (Africa)Logistic regression Number of obs = 11076

Wald chi2(14) = 810.57

Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -7207.6727 Pseudo R2 = 0.0590

Report Robust Coef. Std. Err z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]

Proximity Road Unsafe Attacked Easiness Education Employment Gender Television Newspaper Adult WAO EAO SAO -cons

.1527421 .0428038 3.57 0.000 .0688481 .236636 -.1681403 .0434192 -3.87 0.000 -.2532404 -.0830402 .2058249 .0414591 4.96 0.000 .1245665 .2870833 .4146153 .0439021 9.44 0.000 .3285688 .5006619 .1297881 .0415985 3.12 0.002 .0482566 .2113197 .0709383 .0237775 2.98 0.003 .0243352 .1175413 .1451293 .0427967 3.39 0.001 .0612493 .2290093 -.0984554 .0404066 -2.44 0.015 -.177651 -.0192599 .2178485 .0487627 4.47 0.000 .122319 .3134652 .2925243 .0477907 6.12 0.000 .1988562 .3861923 .0378485 .007753 4.88 0.000 .022653 .053044 -.6076722 .0845374 -7.19 0.000 -.7733624 -.441982 -.1545934 .0911534 -1.70 0.090 -.3332508 .024064 .3979464 .085 4.68 0.000 .2313493 .5645434 -.7037003 .1218841 -5.77 0.000 -.9425888 -.4648119

What regression analysis shows: Readiness to Seek Police assistance (Africa)

Logistic regression Number of obs = 30603

Wald chi2(19) = 3312.58

Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -18577.32 Pseudo R2 = 0.0939

Readiness Robust Coef. Std. Err z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]

Proximity Road Trust Juditrust Easiness Education Employment Ordunpunis Television Newspaper Interaction1 Interaction2 Interaction5 Food Medicare Cash WAO EAO NAO -cons

.2866151 .0374647 7.65 0.000 .2131857 .3600444 .330231 .0271325 12.17 0.000 .2770522 .3834097 -.1189842 .0420469 -2.83 0.005 -.2013947 -.0365737 -.1062659 .0328781 -3.23 0.001 -.1707057 -.041826 .3778251 .0325437 11.61 0.000 .3140406 .4416096 .149869 .0152918 9.80 0.000 .1198976 .1798404 .1047509 .277683 3.77 0.000 .0503259 .1591758 .1039359 .0252547 4.12 0.000 .0544376 .1534343 .6052682 .0318173 19.02 0.000 .5429074 .667629 .2051746 .0313207 6.55 0.000 .1437871 .2665621 -.2022191 .0534005 -3.79 0.000 -.3068822 -.097556 .3091296 .0653441 4.73 0.000 .1810576 .4372016 .2825256 .063306 4.46 0.000 .1584481 .406603 -.2011571 .0291409 -.6.90 0.000 -.2582722 -.1440419 -.1346371 .0294925 -.4.57 0.000 -.1924414 -.0768329 -.1200202 .0350861 -.3.42 0.001 -.1887878 -.0512527 -.1535677 .0305699 -5.02 0.000 -.2134837 -.0936518 -.4204128 .0379797 -11.07 0.000 -.4948516 -.3459739 -.0149514 .0508451 -.029 0.769 -.1146059 .0847031 -.2520625 .0506321 -4.98 0.000 -.3512996 -.1528253

Regression Results…• Women in Tanzania tend to engage less with the police as

compared to men • The following variables have positive and significant impact on

crime reporting and/or readiness to seek police assistance: • having more police stations in the vicinity • education level of an individual • employment status of an individual • poverty level of an individual **• exposure to media• Ease of obtaining police help,• punishing reported suspects,• Corruption,

• Interesting find: • corruption improves citizens’ engagement with the police and • trust does have the opposite (negative) effect—not what we expected

• A rise of crime and anxiety about crime from trough (2005—2008) coinciding with the period the police force embarked on major reform drive

• Criminals have become smatter, more innovative?• Reform losing steam vs. resources spread too thinly?

• Tanzanians are as vulnerable at home (in Tanzania) as any other African country citizens in their own countries.

• Swayed by a peace and security myth ? Not ‘acting’ when we should be?

• Crime reporting, readiness to seek police assistance not encouraging/low in Tanzania

• Proximity—ease of reach of police/police stations, still a challenge

• Crime control and mitigation, whose job—Police alone? How?

Conclusion & Food for thought

Recommendations and further research• The government (at all levels) /private sector

– Facilities, equipment ease of reach (more police stations or better infrastructure?) & related resources

– Resource support/ Public Private Partnerships (PPP)

• Police – Professionalism—eliminate internal corruption(?); build responsiveness

to victims seeking assistance– Awareness building/cultivating the culture of community/individual

policing

• Citizens– Mindset—everyone has got a stake in it (stay alert & report crime/

suspicious situations)

• Areas for further research: – What meaning/value do Tanzanians attach to: i) Corruption ii) Trust– What has ‘culture’ got to do with trust and corruption?

Thank youThank you