Romania’s Economic Situation

By Ilie Szasz and Angela Popa

Romania

• Is a country located in Southeastern and Central Europe, North of the Balkan Peninsula, on the Lower Danube, within and outside the Carpathian arch, bordering on the Black Sea

• Romania has the 9th largest territory and the 7th largest population (22,215,42 million people) among the European Union member states.

• Is an upper-middle income European Union member

• It has the 11th largest economy in the European Union by total nominal GDP

• The country is expected to join the Eurozone in 2014.

Romania’s Demography

AGE STRUCTURE

15.50%

69.70%

14.70%

0-14 years

15-64 years

65 years and over

• Romania population is about 22,215,421 (July 2009 est.) and comparison to the world it`s on 52th place.

• Population growth rate in 2009 is negative (-0.147%) because of high death rate (11.88 deaths/1,000 population and 10.53 births/1,000 population) and migrations to other countries.

SEX STRUCTURE

48.60%51.40%

Males

Females

Economic Indicators and The Sectors of the Economy

• Agriculture employs about 29% of the population (one of the highest rates in Europe), and contributes about 8.1% of GDP.

• Dairy products, pork, poultry, and apple production are concentrated in the western region. Beef production is located in central Romania, while the production of fruits, vegetables, and wine ranges from central to southern Romania. Romania is a large producer of many agricultural products and is currently expanding its forestry and fishery industries.

• Fishing is an economic mainstay in parts of the East of Romania and along the Black Sea coast, with important fish markets in places such as Constanta and Galati. Fish such as herring, crab, lobster, haddock and cod are landed at ports such as Constanta. There has been a large scale decrease in employment in the fishing industry within Romania due to the EU's Common Fisheries Policy, which places restrictions on the total tonnage of catch that can be landed, caused by overfishing in the Black Sea.

• Industry - Romania has been successful in developing dynamic telecommunications, industrial robots, aerospace, and weapons sectors. Industry and construction accounted for 32% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2003, a comparatively large share even without taking into account related services. The sector employed 26.4% of the workforce. Romania excels in the production of automobiles, machine tools, and chemicals.

• Services - In 2003 service sector constituted 55% of gross domestic product (GDP), and the sector employed 51.3% of the workforce. The subcomponents of services are financial, renting, and business activities (20.5%); trade, hotels and restaurants, and transport (18%); and other service activities (21.7%). The service sector in Romania has expanded in recent years, employing some 47% of Romanians.

GDP - composition by sector (2008)

8.10%

36%55.90%

agriculture

industry

services

The evolution of the GDP

Inflation and Deficit

The Evolution of the Public Debt

Public Debt (mil RON)

45625.8 42583.452292.3

68532.2

104633.6

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product

288954.6344650.6

416006.8

503958.7 498962.0

0.0

100000.0

200000.0

300000.0

400000.0

500000.0

600000.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Interest rate• Romania’s Central Bank (BNR) could lower the key interest rate to 9 percent following the

economy’s deterioration above expectations in the first quarter

Balance of payments

Unemployment rate

Unemployment rate

7.20%

8.80%

5.90%5.10%

4.10% 4.40%

0.00%1.00%

2.00%3.00%

4.00%5.00%6.00%

7.00%8.00%

9.00%10.00%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

The economic crisis and the rescue plan of Romania

• The financial crisis is also felt in Romania: the first unit to announce it was the Mittal Galati factory in South East Romania, the biggest steel producer.

• Romania’s real economy is set to take the heavier losses from the world financial crisis in the coming years, and lawmakers are recommending consumers more prudence and to change focus from consumption to saving

• Romania’s Government did not plan to "pull the country out of the economic crisis," as we all face a global crisis, but to develop solid policies meant to cushion its effects, by keeping the euro-leu exchange rate under control and financing the budget deficit.

• The country is in a deep recession, out of which it will not get out before 2010 and even if it is little likely for the state to come back to the economy's high rates

• Romania might return to economic growth in the second quarter of 2010, according to the central bank's evaluations and forecasts.

• A Financial Rescue Plan for Romania is that several lenders led by the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday they had agreed to provide $27 billion in emergency loans to Romania to help it deal with the financial crisis.

• The loans include a two-year standby loan of 12.95 billion euros, $17.6 billion, from the monetary fund and 7 billion euros, $9.5 billion, from the European Union, the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Thank you for your attention!