IAEA Technical Meeting on Topical Issues in the Development of Nuclear Power Infrastructure 2 – 5 February 2016; IAEA Vienna, Austria

ROLE OF NEPIO IN DEVELOPING A NATIONAL ROADMAP

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OVERVIEW

NUCLEAR ROADMAP FOR

PENINSULAR MALAYSIA, POST-FUKUSHIMA

CONCLUDING REMARKS

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Malaysia already had a preliminary nuclear roadmap when MNPC was formed as NEPIO in Jan 2011. An international Consultant was engaged to prepare a realistic “step-by-step” nuclear roadmap, among others. As some “must do” early activities are now behind schedule, a “new” revised nuclear timeline or roadmap is needed. Pertinent issues will be highlighted as MNPC prepares a “new” REVISED nuclear timeline or roadmap on our own – contract with Consultant ended 31 Dec 2015. At this moment, NO decision is made regarding the first nuclear power plant project in Malaysia although some pre-project activities had already been completed, as at 31 December 2015. Whilst Malaysia actively explores various sources of energy for electricity generation, the need to strike the right balance in finding an optimal energy mix for the country and having a power source that is safe is well-recognized. Striking the right balance and finding an ideal energy mix is challenging and therefore due consideration is given when deciding which energy mix to adopt. Owing to its wide-ranging impact on the environment and communities, adoption of nuclear energy needs maximum informed consent and public consensus is required to make an informed decision.

NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA

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Under the COP21 Intended Natonally Determined Contribution (INDC), the Government of Malaysia communicated its intention to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP by 45% by 2030, from 2005 levels. This consists of 35% on an unconditional basis and a further 10% is condition upon receipt of climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building from developed countries . Emissions intensity of GDP (constant price 2005) was 0.531 tonne CO2 eq per thousand RM.

http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx Malaysia’s total GHG emissions represented about 0.6% of global emissions in 2011. The emission intensity was 0.41 tCO2eq/RM1000 for that year. This represents a reduction of about 23% from 2005 values. The total GHG emissions including removals by LULUCF sinks was about 0.05% of global emissions. Malaysia used the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines, Good Practice Guidance, 2000 and Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), 2003 for current reporting. The INDC was developed through participatory process via an inter-ministerial/agencies working group. Stakeholder consultations were conducted to obtain inputs on possible measures to reduce GHG emissions. The projected outcomes from the 11th Malaysian Development Plan (2016 - 2020) and relevant policies and plans including the New Economic Model, Government

Transformation Programme and Economic Transformation Programme (2010) form the basis for the development of the INDC. Malaysia has NO intentions to use international market mechanism to achieve INDC target.

INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION OF MALAYSIA

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Launching of the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) as part of the New Economic Model (NEM), by the Prime Minister on 25 October 2010 incorporating an Entry Point Project (EPP) on nuclear power deployment under the National Key Economic Area (NKEA) for Oil, Gas & Energy (OGE) sector, with target of building twin-unit nuclear power plant with total capacity of 2 Gigawatts, with the first unit in operation by 2021.

Nuclear power programme integrated with ETP in New Economic Model to be a high-income economy & avoid a middle-income trap

while also helping to meet increasing electricity demand at competitive cost and need for sustainable development & commitment for carbon emission reduction

NUCLEAR ENERGY IN NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION

EPP 11: Deploying Nuclear Energy for Power Generation

ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMME (ETP) A comprehensive effort to transform Malaysia into a high-income nation by 2020

RATIONALE

Exploring option of deploying

nuclear energy to meet future demand and to

diversify energy mix for the Peninsular

ACTION

Study possibility of delivering a

twin unit nuclear power plant with total

capacity of 2000 MW post-

2020

ENABLERS

4 critical path items/enablers

must be addressed with highest priority

to ensure prompt delivery.

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Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), 2010 Chapter 6: Powering the Malaysian Economy with Oil, Gas and Energy

EPP 11: Deploying Nuclear Energy for Power Generation

Rationale: Malaysia is exploring the option of deploying nuclear energy in order to meet future demand and diversify the energy mix for Peninsular Malaysia. A Nuclear Power Development Steering Committee, headed by the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water, was set up in June 2009 to plan and coordinate the preparatory efforts towards deploying nuclear energy for electricity generation. The committee has been tasked to conduct various studies towards preparing a Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development Plan (NPIDP), which is targetted to be ready by 2013. Prior to conducting these necessary studies, a nuclear power pre-feasibility study and initial site selection study has already been undertaken.

Action: The Steering Committee is studying the possibility of delivering a twin-unit nuclear power plant with a total capacity of 2 gigawatts, with the first unit in operation by 2021.

Enablers: In order to ensure prompt delivery, the project will be launched without delay

and four critical path items must be addressed with highest priority. Firstly, there must

be public acceptance of the project. Secondly, Malaysia must ratify the relevant

international treaties. Thirdly, the Government must ensure that the correct

regulatory framework is put in place. Finally, approvals for plant sites including from

local populace must be obtained.

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OBJECTIVES

PLAN, SPEARHEAD AND COORDINATE ENSURE IDENTIFY

the implementation of nuclear energy development programme for Malaysia and to take the necessary action to realise the development of the first NPP in Malaysia; the development of nuclear infrastructure for the country is in line with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) guidelines covering 19 key areas. the company or special purpose vehicle (SPV) to be the owner and/or operator of nuclear power plant.

DETAILS

7 JAN 2011

Establishment of Malaysia Nuclear Power Corporation

(MNPC) as a new fully dedicated Nuclear Energy Programme Implementing

Organisation (NEPIO)

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ETP Annual Report 2011

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ETP TIMELINE or Roadmap (2010 – 2021)

10 RAHSIA Source: Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) Roadmap 2010, page 194-196

As of end-2015, we were here, delay of ~5 years

A preliminary Nuclear Roadmap already existed before MNPC was formed in January 2011

Post-Fukushima COD in 2021 is NO LONGER POSSIBLE

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“ORIGINAL” MILESTONES FOR NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA

MILESTONE 1: JUNE 2009 Ready to make a knowledgeable commitment

to a nuclear power programme Cabinet decision for nuclear energy to be a fuel option post-2020.

MILESTONE 2: 2013

Ready to invite bids for the first nuclear power plant

MILESTONE 3 : 2021

Ready to commission and operate the first nuclear power plant

(8-9 year gap between Milestones 2 and 3.

UAE project has a 7.5 year gap between Contract Signing and Unit 1 COD)

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NUCLEAR ROADMAP, PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

POST-FUKUSHIMA

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In view of 5-year delay,, so far, a REVISED Nuclear Roadmap is needed for nuclear power development in Peninsular Malaysia. IAEA step-by-step Milestones (template) are still relevant Situation today (post-Fukushima) is MORE challenging compared to 5 years ago (end-2010) when original nuclear timeline was proposed in ETP 2010 report. Cost-competitiveness of nuclear electricity is now less promising - higher nuclear capital cost to incorporate extra safety designs and lower fossil fuel prices today. Public may be persuaded to accept or tolerate nuclear power after COP21 but it will not be easy. The public have witnessed “live & repeated” news of explosions and major damage to NPPs in Fukushima Dai-ichi station in 2011, as well as news waste water contamination and hardships endured by evacuated residents around Fukushima over last 4+ years.

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Source:

2007 IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-G-3.1 on “Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power”

2008 IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-G-3.2 on “Evaluation of the Status of National Nuclear Infrastructure Development”

8-10 years We are here but NO

project site selected

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Revised nuclear roadmap for Peninsular Malaysia is expected to have LONGER timeline to allow for Nuclear Bill, Nuclear Regulator and Owner-Operator to be formed and also Site Selection to be completed. If a decision to proceed with multi-vendor EPC bidding process is made in 2019/2020, what is a REALISTIC interval between contract signing (say 2021) and COD of Unit 1. Is 9 - 10 years realistic and sufficient to complete the first NPP project in a NEW country? Experiences of on-going (Gen 3/3+) NPP projects in countries already with operating NPPs show project delays e.g. Finland, France, China, South Korea, Russia and USA. The UK Hinkley Point C project is still awaiting EdF Final Investment Decision (as at January 2016).

Interval between Milestone 2 and Milestone 3

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Example of Project Delays – EPR1600

COUNTRY ORIGINAL COD TARGET COD REASONS FOR DELAY

FINLAND

OLKILUOTO-3 2010 Dec 2018 Post Fukushima

-New requirements from Regulator (STUK)

-Reactor Instrumentation & Control (I&C)

FRANCE

FLAMANVILLE-3

2012 Grid: 2018

COD: 2019

- Delays in component delivery by AREVA

- Problems in coordinating 9 subcontractors.

CHINA

TAISHAN 1-2 2013 & 2014 Early 2016 &

End 2016

- Key component delays and project management issues - Design issues

UK

HINKLEY POINT C

2023 N/A Financial delay (awaiting Final Investment Decision by EDF)

Source: WNA Country Profiles (update 2015)

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Example of Project Delays - APR1400

COUNTRY ORIGINAL COD TARGET COD REASONS FOR DELAY

KOREA

SHIN KORI-3 Early 2013 April 2016 (Cabling & Faulty Valve Parts)

Shin-Kori #3 connected to grid (January 2016) SHIN KORI-4 Early 2015 February 2017

UAE

BARAKAH 1-2

COD of Unit 1 in

May 2017;

One year later for

Unit 2 COD

On time

(Delay of Reference

Plant, Shin Kori-3 is NOT

a factor during

Construction)

None reported so far (Reference Plant is still well

ahead and already connected to grid)

Source: WNA Country Profiles (update Jan 2016) http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/

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Example of Project Delays - AP1000

COUNTRY ORIGINAL COD TARGET COD REASONS FOR DELAY

CHINA

SANMEN 1-2 2014 2016/2017 - Design changes

- Problem with US-supplied main coolant pumps

HAIYANG 1-2 2015 Mid 2016/2017 - Design changes & component problem

USA

SUMMER 2-3 N/A

Mid 2019/ Early

2020

-Design and fabrication issues

VOGTLE 3-4 N/A Q2 2019/Q2

2020

- Design changes

Source: WNA Country Profiles (update 2015)

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Therefore, it is prudent to provide “extra” time in new roadmap, to allow, among others, for:- a. project financial close, b. project licensing and permitting to resolve regulatory &

inspection issues e.g. time needed for owner & successful vendor to prepare PSAR and then Nuclear Regulator to review PSAR and issue construction license

c. supply chain delivery and localisation d. vendor learning curve for first NPP project in a new country e. Others

As of 31 Jan 2016, the revised Nuclear Roadmap for Peninsular Malaysia is still under discussion, as MNPC focuses on nuclear-related activities under 11 MP

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NUCLEAR ENERGY IN 11TH MALAYSIA PLAN

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11TH MALAYSIA PLAN:

ENERGY FOCUS AREA STRATEGIES

21 Source: Economic Planning Unit (EPU) Prime Minister’s Dept, 11th Malaysia Plan (2016-2020)

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CONCLUDING REMARKS

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10 September Decision to draft National Nuclear Policy 28 August 2009 Budget in Parliament to explore nuclear energy & formulate new National Energy Policy

26 June Nuclear energy adopted as one of fuel options for electricity supply post-2020, especially for Peninsular Malaysia

10 December Decision to establish NEPIO 25 October Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) launched with nuclear power deployment included 16 July Decision to adopt National Nuclear Policy 10 June New National Energy Policy incorporated in 10MP with nuclear energy as longer term option for the Peninsula

7 January Incorporation of MNPC as NEPIO

21 May *11MP covers; - establishment of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Commission, - Atomic Energy Regulatory Bill passed by the Parliament, - public engagement for acceptance of nuclear power plant development - implementation of NPIDP & NPRIDP, developed in 10MP

POLICY DIRECTIONS TOWARDS

NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT (2008 – 2015)

*11MP = 11 Malaysia Plan, 2016 – 2020

After Fukushima (3/2011), NO nuclear-related decisions made

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MNPC had a template Roadmap explicitly included in ETP report of Oct, 2010, when MNPC was established on 7 January 2011. MNPC-appointed Consultant also prepared a post-Fukushima Roadmap in 2015, revising the “original” (2010) Roadmap. MNPC is now (2016) discussing on another revised Nuclear Roadmap with a tentative COD of 1st NPP Unit in 2030. There are “must-do” activities if the new COD target can be achieved. In 11 MP period (2016 -2020), activities to be carried out include:- 1. Tabling the new comprehensive Nuclear Law, 2. Setting-up an independent Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 3. Capacity building and 4. Nuclear Communication for public buy-in. In the 3 Nuclear Roadmaps, IAEA multi-phase Milestones are relevant and consistent with MNPC corporate objective.

NUCLEAR ROADMAPS 2010, 2015, 2016?

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(tentative REVISED) TARGET MILESTONES FOR NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA

MILESTONE 1: JUNE 2009 Ready to make a knowledgeable commitment

to a nuclear power programme Cabinet decision for nuclear energy to be a fuel option post-2020.

MILESTONE 2: 2019/2020 (?) (Rescheduled from 2013)

Ready to invite bids for the first nuclear power plant based on the timeline for EPP11 under OGE sector in the ETP.

MILESTONE 3 : 2030 (?) (Rescheduled from 2021)

Ready to commission and operate the first nuclear power plant based on the timeline for EPP11 under OGE sector in the ETP.

OWING TO DELAY IN TABLING OF THE DRAFT NUCLEAR BILL & SITE EVALUATION, COD FOR UNIT 1 EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED TO 2030, as mentioned in Parliament

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Thank You

Mohd Zamzam Jaafar Chief Executive Officer Malaysia Nuclear Power Corporation zamzamj@mnpc.org.my