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ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA: COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS

THESIS

SUBMITTED TO THE

UNIVERSITY OF LUCKNOW

FOR THE DEGREE OF

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

In

JOURNALISM AND MASS COMMUNICATION

BY

NIRAJ KUMAR

Under the Supervision of Ex-officio Head

DR. MUKUL SRIVASTAVA Department of Journalism &

Mass Communication

Prof. RASHMI PANDE

DEPARTMENT OF JOURNALISM AND MASS COMMUNICATION UNIVERSITY OF LUCKNOW

LUCKNOW 2014

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I wish to thanks many persons for completion of this thesis directly or indirectly, no

matter how much one may wish to do so, the acknowledgements of indebtness to others

is seldom complete. However, it is possible to mention but a few who have contributed

most in completion of this work.

My first and foremost acknowledgement goes to Dr. Mukul Srivastava, Department of

Journalism and Mass Communication, University of Lucknow for his guidance and

encouraging advice throughout the completion of process of this thesis. I am also

thankful to Mr. Mahesh Kumar along with other members of the Department of

Journalism and Mass Communication, University of Lucknow for necessary help in

research study.

I am also thankful to the Chief Election Commissioner of India Mr. V.S. Sampath, former

Chief Election Commissioner of India Mr. S.Y.Quraishi and Senior Journalists from Print

and Electronic for giving me interviews to complete this thesis. My thanks also goes to

the 400 media professionals who answered on my questionnaire.

It’s also my duty to acknowledge a few crucial contributions towards completing of this

thesis. I thanks Mr. Sanjeev Trivedi, Mr. Tirthesh Nandan, Mr. Awinash Kumar, and Mr.

Saugat Biswas, all were guided me when I need them to understand the particular thing

related to this thesis. I wish to acknowledge the help of Ms. Rashmi Dixit, who always

reminded me about the deadline of this study. My great acknowledgement goes to my

cousion brother Dr. Pankaj Singh, who is not with us, but because of him what I have

achieved till now in the field of academic.

I would like to give thanks to Mr. Rajesh Kumar, who has supported me throughout my

professional career and because of whom I am what I am today.

Thanks and wish my deepest gratitude to my father, Shri Bhagwati Singh and my sisters

Sanskriti Singh and Sabhyata Singh and brother, Dhiraj Kumar Singh for help and moral

support in whole life. I am grateful to my family members, especially Mr. Rajesh Ranjan

Singh and my friends, Mr. Keshvendra Kumar Jha, Mr. Mukund, Mr. Sudhir Mishra and

Mr. Abhay Mishra for inspiring me at all the stages of this study.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

My special thanks goes to Shri Uday Kumar Singh (Phuphaji), who is no more and

Shrimati Champa devi, both have helped me and my family at crucial times of our life.

Finally, if there was one person, who was very much in shaping my life in all aspects was

my mother Vimla Devi . I wish she were alive to read these lines.

Thanks everybody for helping me in completion of this study.

Niraj Kumar

DECLARATION

I, Niraj Kumar, Ph.D. research Scholar, University of Lucknow, Lucknow, hereby

declare and undertake that the thesis submitted by me entitled “ Role of Indian Media:

Covering General Elections” in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of

the degree of Doctor of Philosophy is my original research work and the same has not

been submitted for the award of any degree or diploma in any university or institution

elsewhere. The material quoted from any other source has been duly acknowledged in the

text.

Niraj Kumar

Research Scholar

Dr. Mukul Srivastava,

Department of Journalism and Mass Communication

University of Lucknow,

Lucknow- 226007

CERTIFCATE

This is to certify that the research dissertation entitled, Role of Indian Media: Covering

General Elections has been completed by Niraj Kumar under my supervision and

guidance.

(Dr. Mukul Srivastava)

CONTENTS

Acknowledgement

Declaration

Certificate

Preface

CHAPTERS PAGE NO.

1. MASS MEDIA, DEMOCRACY AND ELECTIONS 1-17

1.1 Mass Media

1.2 Media and Society

1.3 Media and Democracy

1.4 Media and Elections

1.5 History of Mass Media in India

1.6 Need and Importance of the study

1.7 Review Literature

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 18-20

2.1 Objectives:

2.2 Hypotheses:

2.3 Data Collection:

2.4 Data analysis:

3. DEMOCRACY AND INDIAN ELECTIONS: THE EXPERIENCE

OF MORE THAN SIX DECADES 21-38

3.1 Right to Elect Representatives through Elections

3.2 The Multi-party System in Indian Democracy

3.3 Regional Parties And Coalition Politics

3.4 Democracy in Danger

4. EXIT POLL AND OPINION POLLS: ROLE OF SURVEYS

IN PREDICTING AND SHAPING THE OUTCOME 39-82

4.1 Significance of surveys in the largest democracy of the world

4.2 Role and Impact of Surveys in Various elections

4.3 Analysis of exit polls and actual results of different elections

4.4 Results of Analysis

4.5 Television as a medium of popularizing surveys

4.6 Growing demand to discontinue with poll surveys

4.7 Exit Polls and Opinion Polls and Election Commission of India

4.8 Conclusion

5. THE PAID NEWS SYNDROME: IS IT CUTTING INTO

THE ROOTS OF DEMOCRACY 83-94

5.1 Paid News: Past and Present

5.2 Paid News Undermining Democracy: Press Council Report

5.3 Paid News in Parliament

5.4 Election Commission of India and Paid News

5.5 Menace of Paid News-Who Will Bell the Cat?

6. RISE OF NEWS CHANNEL AND ELECTIONS 95-125

6.1 Emergence of Television News Channel in India

6.2. Media Coverages of the Elections through the Ages and

Heightened Role Now

6.3 Survey Research

6.4 Results

7. INTERPRETATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 126-133

7.1 Limitations and Further Scope of the Study

BIBLIOGRAPHY 134-140

APPENDICES

Questionnaire

Interviews

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure

Numbers

Figures Page No.

Figure 6.3.1 Respondents on role of Opinion poll surveys 103

Figure 6.3.2 Respondents on media influence on Opinion poll 104

Figure 6.3.3 Respondents on opinion poll surveys in India 105

Figure 6.3.4 Respondents on continuation of opinion polls 106

Figure 6.3.5 Respondents on Opinion polls biases 107

Figure 6.3.5 Respondents on Bandwagon effect on Opinion poll 108

Figure 6.3.7 Respondents on opinion polls and Its techniques 109

Figure 6.3.8 Respondents of Media and Opinion polls 110

Figure 6.3.9 Respondents on opinion polls as a fifth estate 111

Figure 6.3.10 Respondents on media endorsing political parties 112

Figure 6.3.11 Media and issues in elections 113

Figure 6.3.12 Respondents on Interactions between voters and

poltical parties

114

Figure 6.3.13 Respondents on effectiveness of Media 115

Figure 6.3.14 Respondents on Paid news 116

Figure 6.3.15 Respondents on Media and Rural-Urban divide 117

Figure 6.3.16 Respondents on biases in Media 118

Figure 6.3.17 Respondents on work pressure in Media 119

Figure 6.3.18 Respondents on Management pressure in Media 120

Figure 6.3.19 Respondents on Media Commercial Concern 121

Figure 6.3.20 Respondents on Media institutions 122

LIST OF TABLES

Table No.

Table Title

Page No.

Table 4.3.1 Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of

Loksabha General Election 2004

47



48



49


Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2004

50


Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2009

51


Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2002

52



53



54


Punjab Assembly Election 2002

55


Punjab Assembly Election 2012

56


Kerala Assembly Elections 2011

57


Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

58


Bihar Assembly Election 2010

59

Table 4.3.14 Table : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll

Results Of Gujrat Assembly Elections 2007

60


Gujrat Assembly Elections 2012

61


Tamilnadu Assembly Elections 2006

62


Tamilnadu Assembly Elections 2011

63


West Bengal Assembly Elections 2011

64


Uttarakhand Assembly Elections 2012

65


Himachal Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

66


Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections 2013

67


Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2013

68


Delhi Assebmly Elections 2013

69


Rajasthan Assembly Elections 2013

70

PREFACE

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS

PREFACE

Since the inception of the human being in this beautiful world communication always

played an important role in the growth of human life. Explaining the importance of

communication is like explaining the importance of breathing. The medium of

communication has been varied at different era, ages and times. As we are living in the

21st century, the mode of communication is very much different what it was before. Not

a single part of the world today can progress without the better means of communication.

India is not different. The importance of mass media for our country has greater

importance as we are functioning as a democratic country. After we became democratic

country or before it, the mass media role was always important for geographical

boundary of India. But after independence, as we entered in the world of democracy, the

role of mass media and its responsibility was enhanced. Nobody can doubt about the

constructive role of ‘fourth estate’ of democracy in the Indian context. In all 16 Loksabha

General Elections and more than 350 State Assembly Elections media role was in the

direction of deepening the root of democracy in the country.

However the role of media has been transformed with changing times and changing mass

media. We have experience the gradual progress and changes of media and its effect, at

the time of Print and Radio, at the time of state owned television, at the time of satellite

television, at the time of 24x7 news channels and at the time of social media. Since the

round the clock television news channels came in the scene, the role and impact of the

media is more visible now. It will not incorrect to say that without the mass media it is

very tough for any political parties and leaders to connect with the electorate. In the

present thesis ‘Role of Indian Media: Covering General Elections’, the researcher has

focused on the role of media during the era of television news channels. How the Indian

media, especially news channels has covered the elections, the great events of democracy

after the emergence of television news channels.

PREFACE

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS

Apart from studying the role of Indian Media, especially television media, during

elections, the focus is also on the two aspects of elections which came in light after the

emergence and rapid growth of television channels. Opinion polls (Pre-poll surveys and

Exit poll surveys) and Paid news are among two important aspects on which researcher

has focussed in this study in two separate chapters. The objective of the study is how

Indian media, especially in the era of television news media, effectively functioning in

the Indian democracy.

MASS MEDIA, DEMOCRACY AND

ELECTIONS

CHAPTER 1

ROLE OF INDIAN MEDIA : COVERING GENERAL ELECTIONS Page 1

MASS MEDIA, DEMOCRACY AND ELECTIONS

1.1 MASS MEDIA

Mass communication is actually a one-way-mode of communication in which media

communicates with the members of society and receives their appreciations and

suggestions from time to time. It refers to means of connecting people from different

parts of the globe by sharing information using technology.1 The medium through which

mass communication occurs is called mass media. Basically the mass media are

diversified media technologies that are intended to reach a large audience by mass

communication. The technologies through which this communication takes place varies.

Broadcast media such as radio, recorded music, film and television transmit their

information electronically. Print media use a physical object such as a newspaper, book,

pamphlet or comics.

Janowitz defined the Mass communication as follow ―Mass communications comprise

the institutions and techniques by which, specialized groups employ technological

devices to disseminate symbolic content to large heterogenous and widely dispersed

audiences.‖2

1.2 MEDIA AND SOCIETY

From the primitive gong of the village town crier, the leaf lettering of anti-colonial

movements, the bold headlines of the national dailies, the crystal clear news footages of

the cable television networks, to the internet blogs, no one can seriously ignore the

impacts of today's mass media on society, politics and governance, especially in

developing democracies.

In any democratic society media plays a very significant role. In today‘s era the media is

all around us. From the shows we watch on TV, the music we listen to on the radio, to the

books, magazines, and newspapers we read each day. Without the media, people in

societies would be isolated, not only from the rest of the world, but from governments,

law-makers, and neighboring towns and cities. The flow of information is important for

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the development of communities and the media facilitates this. Without a wide array of

information, people‘s opinions and views would be limited and their impressions and

conclusions of the world around them stunted. In an age of multinational media

corporations we are constantly persuaded to believe that we live in a "global village" - a

single, undifferentiated information society. Undoubtedly the flow of information

through the media is greater and faster than it was, say, in the 1960s when the term

"global village" was coined - still more by comparison with the age before mass

broadcasting.

1.3 MEDIA AND DEMOCRACY

Any democracy is impossible without a free media. The role of media in the democratic

society can be understand with the popular saying of American founding father and third

president of the united states Thomas Jefferson. Jefferson was a spokesman for

democracy. On the Role of Media in the democratic society Thomas Jefferson had once

said that if he had to choose between a government without newspapers or newspapers

without a government, he would pick the latter.3

The popular saying of Thomas Jefferson

known as Jeffersonian declaration. The mass media constitute the backbone of

democracy. The media supplies the political information that voters base their decisions

on. They identify problems in our society and serve as a medium for deliberation. They

are also the watchdogs that we rely on for uncovering errors and wrongdoings by those

who have power. Democracy requires the active participation of citizens and the media

keep citizens engaged in the business of governance by informing, educating and

mobilising the public. The most important democratic functions that we can expect the

media to serve are listed in an often-cited article by Gurevitch and Blumler (1990). These

2 functions include surveillance of sociopolitical developments, identifying the most

relevant issues, providing a platform for debate across a diverse range of views, holding

officials to account for the way they exercise power, provide incentives for citizens to

learn, choose, and become involved in the political process, and resist efforts of forces

outside the media to subvert their independence.4 It is the mass media that make the

exercise of freedom of expression a reality. Freedom of the press affords the public one

of the best means of discovering and forming an opinion of the ideas and attitudes of their

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political leaders. In particular, it gives politicians the opportunity to reflect and comment

on the preoccupations of public opinion; it thus enables everyone to participate in the free

political debate which is at the very core of the concept of a democratic society. It

informs the public about matters of public interest and act as a watchdog over

government.5

The mass media, which proclaimed as the fourth estate, a co-equal branch

of government that provides the check and balance without which no government can be

effective in any democratic country.

In India democracy took a giant step forward with the first general election held in 1951-

52 over a four-month period. These elections were the biggest experiment in democracy

anywhere in the world. The elections were held based on universal adult franchise, with

all those twenty-one years of age or older having the right to vote. There were over 173

million voters, most of them poor, illiterate, and rural, and having had no experience of

elections. The big question at the time was how would the people respond to this

opportunity.

Many were skeptical about such an electorate being able to exercise its right to vote in a

politically mature and responsible manner. Some said that democratic elections were not

suited to a caste-ridden, multi-religious, illiterate and backward society like India's and

that only a benevolent dictatorship could be effective politically in such a society. The

coming elections were described by some as 'a leap in the dark' and by others as 'fantastic'

and as 'an act of faith.'6

1.4 MEDIA AND ELECTIONS

The mass media are essential to the conduct of democratic elections. A free and fair

election is not only about casting a vote in proper conditions, but also about having

adequate information about parties, policies, candidates and the election process itself so

that voters can make an informed choice. A democratic election with no media freedom

would be a contradiction in terms.

The prime concern is the right of voters to full and accurate information. Parties and

candidates are entitled to use the media to get their messages across to the electorate. The

media play a more specific part in enabling full public participation in elections, not only

CHAPTER 1


by reporting on the performance of government, but also in a number of other ways such

as by educating the voters, by reporting on election campaign, by providing a platform

for the political parties, by allowing the parties to debate, by reporting results and

monitoring vote counting, by scrutinizing the electoral process itself in order to evaluate

its fairness, efficiency, and probity. In a world of mass communications, it is increasingly

the media that determine the political agenda, even in less technologically developed

corners of the globe.7

India would not be able to describe itself as the world‘s largest democracy without the

existence of an independent media and without free and fair elections. Ensuring free and

fair elections is not only the sole responsibility of the Election Commission of India but

also the different institution of democracy to ensure that elections process is held free and

fair. It is the duty of media to keep eye on elections as a watchdog of democracy.The

mass media in India often reflects the diversity and plurality of the country, especially

when general elections take place. The central role of the media in elections is a very

recent development. In many countries, free elections are themselves a new phenomenon.

For large parts of Asia and Africa that were once under colonial rule, free and sovereign

elections are a development of the second half of the twentieth century, while for those

countries in the former Communist bloc they are even more recent than that. Even the

countries of Western Europe and Latin America only fully democratized in the years

shortly before or after the Second World War with the extension of the franchise to

women. Europe, North America, and Latin America evolved a theory of the media as a

"Fourth Estate", offering a check on the activities of governments.

Before the rise of modern electronic media, political information was conveyed through

the two mechanisms of the print media and direct personal contact. In those days,

newspaper readership was higher than today, but this still excluded a very large

proportion of the population that was either too poor to afford a newspaper or that simply

could not read. Hence direct personal communication assumed great importance. This

would include public political meetings addressed by candidates or hustings, where the

different candidates would debate and be questioned. It would also include door-to-door

canvassing by the candidate or party activists, as well as leaflets and posters produced by

CHAPTER 1


the parties or candidates. But In industrialized countries with extensive electronic media,

these methods have declined dramatically in importance. Elsewhere, however, the

political meeting and personal contact with the candidates remains important. Even in

conditions of dire poverty, the media still have a role in communicating political

information. Even when rural communities do not have direct access to independent

media, the information generated by, say, the private press will still go into general

circulation and may reach the rural voters at some stage. So, although word of mouth

may be the direct source of political information, the media will contribute importantly to

the mass of information in circulation.

1.5 HISTORY OF MASS MEDIA IN INDIA

Indian mass media consists of several different types of communications: Newspapers,

television, radio, cinema, magazines, and internet-based websites. Indian media is active

since the late 18th century with print media started in 1780, radio broadcasting initiated

in 1927, and the screening of Auguste and Louis Lumière moving pictures in Bombay

initiated during the July of 1895—is among the oldest and largest media of the world.8

The first newspaper Bengal Gazette was started by James Augustus Hicky in 1780. The

Gazette, a two-sheet newspaper, specialised in writing on the private lives of the Sahibs

of the Company. He dared even to mount scurrillious attacks on the Governor-General,

Warren Hastings' wife, which soon landed "the late printer to the honourable Company"

in trouble. Hicky was sentenced to 4 months jail term and Rs.500 fine, which did not

deter him. After a bitter attack on the Governor-General and the Chief Justice, Hicky was

sentenced to one year in prison and fined Rs.5,000, which finally drove him to penury.

These were the first tentative steps of journalism in India. The southern India got its first

newspaper as The Madras Courier in 1785 by Richard Johnson, a government printer. In

1878, The Hindu was founded, and played a vital role in promoting the cause of Indian

independence from the colonial yoke. Today this paper enjoys the highest circulation in

South India, and is among the top five nationally. Bombay was a late starter compare to

Calcutta (now Kolkata) and Madras (now Chennai). The Bombay Herald came into

existence in 1789. Significantly, a year later a paper called the Courier started carrying

advertisements in Gujarati.9

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The emergence of twenty-four hour television news channels in India started during the

last decade of 20th century. However the news on television was already on Doordarshan,

but it was not round the clock and another thing is that it was government owned. The

private television news channels changed the style of Journalism in India. Post-1990

satellite television in India has become transnational in nature. It coincided with the entry

of multinational companies in the Indian markets under the Government policy of

privatization. International satellite television was introduced in India by CNN through its

coverage of the Gulf War in 1991. In August 1991, Richard Li launched Star Plus, the

first satellite channel beamed the signal to Indian subcontinent. Subhash Chandra‘s Zee

TV appeared in October 1992. It is India‘s first privately owned Hindi channel to cater

the interest of Indian viewers. Doordarshan‘s earlier mandate to aid in the process of

social and economic development had clearly been diluted. Doordarshan had faced a stiff

competition in news and public affairs programming with international channels like

BBC and CNN. For televised news, the viewers had to watch Doordarshan and some

international news channels like BBC or CNN. In this race to provide more news, more

information, Zee Television jumped into the battlefield by launching the news channel

Zee News in 1995. This News and current affairs channel revolutionized the way news

was delivered to the viewers. The other round-the-clock news channel, the Murdoch-

owned Star TV beamed its exclusively 24-hour news channels, Star News in 1998. After

the huge success of news programme ‗Aaj Tak‘, TV Today group launched a 24-hour

Hindi news channel with the same name ‗Aaj Tak‘, in December 2000, which covers

India with insight, courage and plenty of local flavour. Within 11 months of its launch,

Aaj Tak emerged as India‘s number one news channel. The trend of 24 hours news

channel which started in 1995, still continued.10

In any society or democracy media needs freedom in its work. Indian media has been free

and Independent throughout the most of its history, even before establishment of Indian

empire by the Great Asoka, on the foundation of righteousness, openness, morality and

spirituality. Only the period of emergency (1975–1977), declared by Prime Minister

Indira Gandhi, was the brief period when India's media was faced with potential

government retribution.

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1.6 NEED AND IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY

Elections are an important part of any democracy. It is very difficult to study how any

voter arrive at a decision in casting his or her vote for a party or a candidate, the vibrant

Indian democracy make it more difficult in comparison to western democracies. Many

factors influence the decision of voter‘s in democracy like India, where many diversities

influence the decision of voter‘s, like- caste, color, creed, religion, region, family,

personality of candidates, parties, mass media and so on and on. With the proliferation of

mass media, they have become very vital tool for politicians and political parties in

reaching out to a large masses, which was impossible till few years ago. Mass media over

the years have influenced the political process of societies in which citizen enjoy freedom

of speech and expression. What type of role should media play? Whether the media

should restrict themselves to the role of informing and education the society on issues

that are crucial to the people or set agenda for larger debate and deliberations, are issues

on which different people have different views. It is however is for sure that media have

become an inevitable part of the political process especially during elections. In the

present study it is proposed to analyze the patterns of influence, role and impact of mass

media during the election campaigns in the India after independence, especially in the era

of 24 hours news channel. With the new form of mass media which took place in last 20

years, many others aspects also connected with elections. How in the age of twenty- four

hours news channels, media is playing effective role in Indian democracy. How paid

news is threatning to our democracy and media. Apart from this, the study has focused on

the opinion poll surveys. Do surveys affect the opinion of voters? How poll surveys have

performed in recent years?

1.7 REVIEW LITERATURE

The influence of media on elections, political participation and voting behavior has been

studied in the United States, but in India it is still in pre-stage. In India, there have been

several studies on the nature and functions of the media (Fernandez, 2000; Johnson,

2001; Kluver et al., 2007; Prasad, 2006; Sonawalkar, 2001). In fact much of these studies

have focused on the role of the Indian media in the post liberalization period

(Fernandez, 2000; Johnson, 2001; and Sonawalkar, 2001). However, these studies mainly

CHAPTER 1


focus on the cultural impact of the media. For instance Fernandez (2000) in her article

―Nationalizing ‗the Global‘: Media Images, Cultural Politics and the Middle Class in

India‖ argues that the social as well as the cultural images emanating from the process of

economic liberalization in India is a result of the interaction between the global and the

national. Johnson (2001), on the other hand, focuses on the influence of television on

rural India. Sonawalkar (2001) looks at the imperialistic tendencies of Indian television

channels on South Asia from a cultural context. An overview of the Indian media

literature suggests that there has been very little research on the impact of the media

on political participation in general and voting behavior in particular.

The mass media scene becomes pretty alive during elections in India, especially with the

coming of satellite channels. Opinion polling has become a regular feature around the

election time, discussions based on poll results have also become popular in media.

However, serious empirical research in the field especially aimed at gauging the impact

of mass media on the voting behaviour of the electorate is still at a nascent stage in India.

Such research studies assume importance in a country like India- the largest democracy

with over 800 million voters.

Nonetheless some studies have been conducted by academics and media researcher in the

last few decades. Before going further it will be better to have some glimpses from these

studies and are reflected in the following paragraphs :

Indian media are generally criticized for their obsession with politics. M Shatruguna has

talked about a particular case of Andhra Pradesh, where according to him ―there had been

two elections and not one‖. Elections were held in Andhra Pradesh in two phases, on

May 20 and June 15, with 17 parties going to the polls in the first phase and 24 in the

second phase after the death of Rajiv Gandhi. The results showed that opposition to the

congress was clear with the party getting defeat in 14 out of 17 constituencies. Through a

splendid combination of political machinery and unashamed misuse of state machinery,

writes Shatruguna,‖ the ashes of the slain leader were cynically displayed all over the

state…of the 4 seats that went to polls in the second phase, the Congress-I bagged 21,

sweeping the whole of Rayalseema and Winning major chunks in Telangana‖.11

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From this case study one cannot say for sure whether it were the mass media which

helped changed the election outcome. However, there can‘t be denying the fact that

undercurrents could be felt. The live telecast of Rajiv Gandhi funeral, the camera

focusing on the conduct of the immediate family members, their grief-stricken faces, the

role of Priyanka in taking on the family mantle in consoling her mother surely left

impression on the minds of the watchers. Whether it got converted into votes cannot be

said for sure, for want of enough published empirical data available on the subject. In

retrospect, one can argue that after the death of Indira Gandhi in 1984, her son rode the

crest of sympathy and received an unprecedented mandate in the history of parliamentary

democracy in India. The mass media had extensively covered the event of her funeral.

Despite the riots, the killing of innocent Sikhs, the public opinion supported the party and

the family legacy. The party also made extensive use of mass media during election. How

is it that when the very same leader was slain and the party could argue that thanks to the

proliferation of mass media an average person is more informed than he was in the

eighties. With the availability of satellite channels, plurality of views is now available.

The other argument could be that no one from the family forward to take on the mantle of

the part. The lack of a charismatic leader could have been responsible for the lukewarm

response in some parts of the country. Yet another reason could be the split vote and the

erosion of traditional vote base of many parties.12

G Palnithurai‘s study on ―voters reasoning of political participation‖ questions the

validity of the supposed role of mass media in elections. The research was conducted in

1991 with a sample of 525 respondents from rural areas in three voter constituencies. The

sample was designed to get a representation of various geographical areas, caste groups

and economic strata. Some of the findings make it an interesting study: Seventy-seven

percent voters evinced faith in democracy. Over 84 per cent had in the previous election.

About 91 per cent had already made up their mind about who they would vote for in

coming election. While 25 percent said that their decision would be based on the

candidate, over 64 per cent preferred party to candidate. Over 66 per cent said they

discussed politics at home. About 61 per cent said the decision to vote for a particular

candidate or party was same for all the voters in their families. In over 52 per cent cases,

it was the head of the family who decided who the family would vote for. An interesting

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insight that emerged from the qualitative survey, when the team visited the villages was

that for nearly 30 years, the practice followed was that the village committee would

decide as to who to vote for. The practice was given up from the late eighties, as the

youth protested this kind of decision making. Hence came the practice of decision

making within the families.13

Dr. Balwinder Singh‘s media content analysis of two mainstream newspapers viz. the

Hindustan times and Indian express for 47 days from 30 April-15 June, the last day of

withdrawals during the 1991 elections reflect the interest of media in politics. As both the

newspapers are in English and accessed by educated urbanites, one can infer that they

had a lot of material at their disposal to gain from. It is, however, another matter that the

average reading of newspapers does not go beyond 10 to 15 minutes.

J S Yadava in a study based on the analysis of data collected in a nation wide study of the

election campaign during the eighth parliamentary election held in December 1998 puts

forth the role of media in reinforcing the already held views. The theoretical basis of the

study was that the election campaign helps in reinforcing and mobilizing the opinions of

the electorate and not so much in converting them. He is of the view that during a period

of 18-24 months preceding the elections, the mass media serve to place the current issues

of politics on the agenda of citizens‘ discussions. Through the interplay of mass media

and interpersonal communication, the essence of major political issues get disseminated

widely among the electorate even among the illiterates and those living in remote areas.

As a result they form their impressions and opinions about leaders and parties. During the

campaign period contending parties consolidate such impressions as opinions about

selected political issues in the form of major themes. The campaign, according to him

heightens the interest of voters in public affairs. He contends that voters selectively

perceive media stimuli about their favourite parties and candidates. This implies that

effective campaigning although does not get totally accepted by the voters, it helps in

reinforcing the impression and opinions that already exist in the minds of the voters.14

P V Sharda in her study of the rural audience found that although, the rural voters have

realized the importance of such broadcasts, their final decision as to whom to vote is not

CHAPTER 1


entirely based on the media stimuli. According to her, ―villagers watch these programme

to know what is being said by different political parties.‖

In her another study relating to the impact of radio and television, Sharda has studied the

effectiveness of the two powerful media from a politician‘s perspective. She conducted

qualitative research based of in-depth interviews with 100 politicians from a cross section

of political parties who were elected to the state assembly or the parliament. As many as

75 percent were not satisfied with the limited exposure allowed to them to air their

party‘s point of view or agenda. Over 74 per cent suggested once in a week exposure

around the election time and 17 per cent twice a week. An interesting suggestion came

from some elected representatives to make it a regular feature and restricted to election

times. Radio and television were not considered important campaigning tools by a

majority of politician.15

The issue that has caught the attention of social scientists and serious researchers in the

Indian contest is the increasing proliferation of the electronic media and their impact on

gullible mind of millions of voters who are illiterate but at the same time overawed by the

powerful media with three dimension effect and larger than life projection of

personalities.

There is an increasing debate on the subject of the alleged partisan role of the media in

matters of national and public interest. Media role during elections has come under closer

scrutiny. Thomas Patterson, a renowned profession of political science argues that press‘s

restless search for the riveting story generally work against its intention to provide voters

with a reliable picture of these campaign. ―The press‖, write Patterson, ― is in the news

business, not the business of politics, and because of this, its norms and imperatives are

not those required for the effective organization of electoral coalitions and debate.

Journalists values and political values are at odds with each other.‖ The media he argues

has many strengths but certainly not the capability of looking at the world as a whole and

not in small pieces.16

Taberez Ahmed Neyazi in his research has focused on how Hindi media played an

important role in Indian democracy. An overview of the literature on the Indian news

CHAPTER 1


media shows that the English media, which dominated the national media market from

independence till the late 1990s, is no longer the dominant market player and vernacular

media pose a serious challenge to the dominance and authority of English media in the

public sphere. Neyazi raised few questions through his research that what are the

implications of massive growth of Hindi news media for Indian democracy? Has it led to

the empowerment of the marginalized sections of the society or has it created

fragmentation in the public sphere? Is there a relationship between the deepening of

Indian democracy and the rise of Hindi media? Neyazi found that with the decline of the

congress system after the 1967 general elections, there was a parallel rise of a regional

consciousness in which the regional and vernacular press played an important role. One

cannot ignore the power of vernacular press when looking at their history as they aligned

with nationalists forces to fight against the British during the colonial period, the

vernacular realm and the activities carried out there provided an important shape to the

development of nationalism subsequently. The regional language press in the south India

had already played a significant role in creating a regional awareness and aligning with

regional political parties, and this contributed to the challenge to the dominance of the

national political party, the congress in the 1960s and 1970s. This contribution by Hindi

newspapers came only in the 1980s with the rise of many important non-congress

political leaders in north India. Hindi newspapers provided them a platform for the

emerging political stalwarts of North India to raise their voice in the public arena. In his

conclusion Neyazi found that the expansion of Hindi newspapers and the

vernacularization of the public sphere have significantly influenced politics and society at

the local level. Growing newspapers circulation in North India has been accompanied by

increasing mobilization of marginalized groups, a phenomenon witnessed in South India

in the 1960s. Effective political participation requires informed citizens. The survival of

electoral democracy in India is well established. Elections held every five years are but

one aspect of democracy. The day to day monitoring of the political process by the media

is crucial to ensuring checks and balances in the political system and deepening of the

process of democratization. The media revolution spearheaded by the vernacular media

has brought marginalized groups into the public arena, and posed serious challenges to

CHAPTER 1


the dominance of national political elites, who now cannot afford to ignore issues

emanating from the regional public arena.17

Sevanti Ninan in her study found that Hindi newspapers catering to local needs are

creating new audiences and "a different kind of public sphere" in towns and districts in

the Hindi belt. In her book, "Headlines from the Heartland: Reinventing the Hindi Public

Sphere", Ninan said that in the 1990s, a "newspaper revolution began blowing across

northern and central India". She said that quality of journalism in this age of booming

media gets anywhere near the kind of attention it deserves. But television localization has

been getting some attention.18

Over the years, there have been numerous debates leading

to concern about the increasing role and influence of media, which, it is alleged, have

changed the very fabric of politics. Media as an institution has progressed by leaps and

bounds in a much shorter time frame.

First time in World War-I,when the government news management and power of

propaganda through the mass media came to be realised. The apparent success of

propaganda led to a widespread success by social scientists of the ―hypodermic needle‖

theory of the effects of the media. This theory assumed that everyone was exposed to the

media message equally. Everyone interpreted them in the same general way and everyone

was affected uniformly by the. This, a cleverly designed message could produce a more

or less uniform response from everyone in the population. The theory was not based on

empirical research however it reflected social and psychological theories of the day. The

theory also assumed that the individual in the modern industry society prone to be

manipulated was irrational and governed by unreasonable passion trails that make

themselves a threat to democracy.19

Harwood I Childs in his thesis on public opinion strongly advocates preserving public

opinion, because many forces seen to be at work curtailing and undermining its role .

These, according to Childs, include the tremendous growth in executive power, the

growing complexity and speed of social changes, emergence of pressure groups, higher

stakes among political parties, mass media and other channels.20

CHAPTER 1


The relationship between media campaigning and voting behavior has been the main

focus of research in the field of political communication of the various models and

theories. Thomas Harrop's model has been widely discussed and accepted. According to

Thomas Harrop's thesis, media can influence the voting behaviour in four situations:

1. when party loyalties are weak

2. there are new subjects to cover

3. coverage is credible

4. people rarely discuss politics

Television according to his has strengthened the credibility of the media and supplanted

conversation as a major channel of political communication.21

McCombs et al, speak about the following sequence to the effects of the exposure to

communication viz; awareness, information-attitudes-behavior. In reports both prior to

and during political campaigns, the news media to a considerable degree identify

important issues. Simply put, the news media set the agenda for the campaigns. This line

of thinking suggests that media mentally orients and organises the world for their

audience.22

Walter Lippman questioned the purity and adequacy of mass media as sources of

information in the early part of this century. In his classic study, ―newspapers‖, he felt

that journalist painted just a ―flashlight‖ rather than a mirror at the world. Hence, the

audience did not get a complete image of the political scene. They got a highly selective

glimpses, instead. Lippmann explained why the media could not possibly perform the

functions of public enlightenment that democratic theory required. The media persons, he

argued could not tell the truth objectively because truth was subjective and entailed more

probing investigations and analysis that a busy pace of news products could allow-

source.23

CHAPTER 1


A very interesting insight is offered by Altheide et al, when they say that in a media

world, organized journalism is dead. The media men are post journalist for two reasons.

First, journalist practices techniques and approaches are increasingly geared to media

formats rather than merely directing their craft of topic. Secondly, the topics,

organizations and issues that journalists report about are themselves products of media

journalists format and criteria.24

Evidence of analysing the effects Denis Mc quail argues that much of what has been

written about the effects or effectiveness of the media either derives from research on

campaigns or involves predictions about hypothetical campaign situations which include

political and election campaign, attempts at public information, advertising, public

service information, some forms of education-all of which have definite quantifiable

objectives to achieve.

In democratic societies, the relationship between media organizations is characterized

primarily by competition to maximize audience and to be first within the news. Media in

fact, enjoy so much clout in democratic societies that they tent to believe, they can make

or mar governments. Some media deliberately take on activist role, whether it is fair, is a

debatable point.

CHAPTER 1


REFERENCES

1. Jammicutecoco (September,2011). “The Evolution of Mass Media,” pp. 1

2. Denis McQuail. McQuail's Mass Communication Theory, pp.57

3. http://www.slideshare.net/iDebate/role-of-the-media-in-the-democratic-society

4. http://www.aibd.org.my/node/1219

5. Table of Contents "Media and Elections" HYPERLINK "http://aceproject.org/ace-

en/topics/me/me20"PRIVATE "TYPE=PICT; ALT=Left

6. http://indiansaga.com/history/postindependence/elections.htm

7. "Media and Elections" HYPERLI NK "http://aceproject.org/ace-

en/topics/me/me20"PRIVATE "TYPE=PICT;ALT=Left

8. http://indiacitypages.com/news-media/10040


10. http://EzineArticles.com/83168

11. M Shatruguna, EPW, volume-xxvi, no-25, june 22, 1991, p-1511.

12. Ibid.

13. Dr. G. Palanithurai, ‖voters‘ reasoning of political participation‖, monthly public

opinion surveys, 443, xxxvii, no.11, august 1992

14. J S Yadav,‖campaign and voters‘ choice-1984 parliamentary election‖ in

communication, vol xx no.1, January 1985.

15. P V Sharda, Impact of Television on the political awareness of the rural masses.

Sharda, P.V. 1989. ―Impact of Television on Rural Areas‖, Communicator, Vol. 25, No.

4 p. 2.

16. Thomas Patterson, out of order, (new York:Alfred a knof, 1993).

http://www.studymode.com/profile/Jammicutecoco/

http://www.slideshare.net/iDebate/role-of-the-media-in-the-democratic-society

http://www.aibd.org.my/node/1219

Table%20of%20Contents%20%22Media%20and%20Elections%22%20HYPERLINK%20%22http:/aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/me/me20%22PRIVATE%20%22TYPE=PICT;%20ALT=Left

Table%20of%20Contents%20%22Media%20and%20Elections%22%20HYPERLINK%20%22http:/aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/me/me20%22PRIVATE%20%22TYPE=PICT;%20ALT=Left

http://indiansaga.com/history/postindependence/elections.htm

%22Media%20and%20Elections%22%20HYPERLI%20NK%20%22http:/aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/me/me20%22PRIVATE%20%22TYPE=PICT;ALT=Left

%22Media%20and%20Elections%22%20HYPERLI%20NK%20%22http:/aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/me/me20%22PRIVATE%20%22TYPE=PICT;ALT=Left

http://indiacitypages.com/news-media/10040


http://ezinearticles.com/83168

CHAPTER 1


17. Economic and political weekly, Vol - XLVI No. 10, March 05, 2011 | politics after

vernacularisation: hindi media and Indian democracy by Taberez Ahmed Neyazi.

18. Sevanti Ninan, Headlines from the heartland (2007)

19. Bernard Berlson, Paul F Lazarsfeld and William N. Mc Phee, Voting: a study of

opinion formation in a presidential campaign (Chicago university of Chicago press,1954)

p.234 for ―hypodermic effect‖.

20.Harwood I child, public opinion nature, formation and role (Princeton, New

Jersey,1965)

21. Martin Harrop, ― voting and the elctorate‖ in development of British Politics,henry

Drucker (London, mac millan, 1983)

22. Mccombs E. Maxwell and Donald L Shaw, ― the agenda setting function of the

press,‖ in David Graber‘s ed, Media power in politics.(New Delhi: Mcmilan 1994)

23. Walter Lippmann, public opinion (first printed in 1922, reprint, newyork: free press,

1965)

24. Davind l. Altheide and Robert Shaw, media worlds in the post journalism era

pp.—1-10

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 2


RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

To achieve the objectives and check the hypothesis of the research, the researcher has

planned the research design. The research in this thesis consists of both qualitative and

quantitative analysis and hence a mixed method research. In the present study it is

proposed to analyze the patterns of influence, role and impact of mass media during the

election campaigns in the India after independence and especially in the era of 24 hours

news channel. The Present Study was conducted to analyze the role of Indian Media in

Covering General Elections. The Objectives were related to various aspects of the topic.

2.1 OBJECTIVES

1. To understand the role of Media during elections in Indian Context.

2. To understand the special Characteristics of Electronic Media, especially

television news channels, during their involvement in Election.

3. To know the effectiveness of forecasting of Media in Pre and Post election

results.

4. To Identify factors influencing media's role during elections.

5. To understand the utility and significance of Media Strengthening Democratic

institutions in India with Special reference to Election.

6. To understand the perception of Media Professionals regarding role of Media.

2.2 HYPOTHESES

a. Mass media play an active role during elections.

b. Mass media, especially television news channels, has usurped the political parties

traditional role of reaching out to the electorate.

c. Exit polls are failed to give right predictions in elections.

CHAPTER 2


d. Pre-post poll and exit poll surveys need major changes in their techniques to

prove themselves right in Indian context.

e. Paid news is a big threat to the free, fair and level playing elections

The researcher had underscore 5 hypotheses for this study. First one is Mass media

play an active role during elections. It is noted that during the time of Independence

and first General election the print media dominance can be visible in elections also.

And the trend was same till the few years back when the 24 hours news channels

came in the scene. However in all time media was effective in the scene but the role

of mass media changed in the era of television media, electronic media and social

media. During the time of print the candidates had to focus on person to person

contact in the run-up to the elections, the political rallies were planned for the leaders

of the political parties to reach the voters. All these campaigning style is still exist

during the election now in the era of mass media and social media, but now mass

media has become important tools for the political parties and candidates to reach

new voters.

The study is based on empirical research involving following process to come to

Conclusion;

2.3 DATA COLLECTION

In this study researcher has used the combination of Primary and Secondary data to

explore the various objectives and test the hypothesis formulated. The primary data

was collected from respondents through questionnaire and interview with the

journalists who are active in the field of television news channels. The questionnaire

content of the survey containing 20 Close ended questions. For primary data

‘Random Sampling Method’ was used and questionnaire was given to 400 media

professionals randomly from electronic and print. The questionnaire of interview was

Semi-structural type and on the spot exploratory questions. The secondary data were

collected from various books, newspaper records and websites.

CHAPTER 2


2.4 DATA ANALYSIS

Keeping the objectives and hypotheses of this thesis the research consists of

qualitative and quantitative analysis of the primary and secondary data. Once filled up

questionnaire were received and interview conducted. The researcher here also

analysed the exit polls results of General elections(Loksabha and Assembly). Once

tabulation was done the data was subjected to various analysis to draw conclusions.

The questionnaire and interview were subject to content analysis and important

themes were discussed as results.

DEMOCRACY AND INDIAN

ELECTIONS: THE EXPERIENCE

OF MORE THAN SIX DECADES

CHAPTER 3


DEMOCRACY AND INDIAN ELECTIONS: THE EXPERIENCE OF

MORE THAN SIX DECADES

India‟s world largest democracy has been successfully conducting elections all through

the last 67 years of its attaining independence. The Indian democracy is generally

referred to as the fledging democracy, the political systems in India has reflected rare

resilience despite a plethora of problems compounded by poverty, illiteracy and

deprivation of a large mass of its populace.

According to Norman D. Palmer, since most of the people in India not only did not have

any experience in the electoral process but were also illiterate, at the time of

independence, and in other respects seemingly unprepared to play a responsible role as

free citizens in a democratic society, the decision of the constituent assembly and the

government of India to give every adult Indian male and female the privilege of the

franchisee under the system of universal a direct suffrage, was as has been noted, a truly

momentous one.1

The democracy of India has been a subject matter of much concern and research.

Democracy reflects the voice of a nation. And in any democracy elections and the

process that govern them infact hold the key to the success of democratic institutions or

their downfall.

J. Schumpeter, best known for advocating a procedural definition of democracy, opined

thus:” the democratic method is that institutional arrangement for arriving at political

decisions in which individuals acquire the power to decide by means of a competitive

struggle for the people‟s vote”. New definition of democracy reverses the definition of

classical theory in which “each citizen has a rational opinion about every issue. Each

citizen votes for a representative to carry out his opinion. Thus, selecting a representative

is "secondary."2

The emphasis on importance of elections can also be found in the so-called traditional

theories of democracy which had been formulated in the late eighteenth and nineteenth

CHAPTER 3


century. Political scientist, B. Holden in the 1970s divided the traditional democratic

theory into two types- the liberal democratic theory and radical democratic theory.3

According to Holden, John Locke, is seen as the founding father of the traditional

democratic theory. In liberal democratic theory, people are given a negative role. This

involves the people in passively choosing between options presented to them while in the

radical democratic theory, the people are given a positive role. The people actually

initiate the policies. This involve the belief that the representatives are closely controlled

by their electors. Some important representatives of the liberal theory are Edmund Burke

and John Stuart Mill. J. J. Rousseau, Jeremy Bentham and James Mill represent the

radical theory.4

Some political scientists speak of the pluralist theory, in strict pluralist theory the

importance of elections is downgraded and not seen as embodying the democratic

process. Although elections may still be regarded as a necessary condition for the

existence of the democratic process, the will of people is manifested in the inter-election

pressure-group process.5

If you go through the history of democratization in former colonial states, it has been

inconsistent and erratic. India has been an exception. In comparison with the experience

of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, democracy in India has proved to be resilient.

This despite the fact that the preconditions which western scholars often associated with

democracy- homogeneous population, and industrial economy, high level of education

and shared civic culture-were absent in the India of the 1950s.6

India's first General Election was among other things, an act of faith. A newly

independent country chose to move straight into universal adult suffrage, rather than- as

had been the case in the west-at first reserve the right to vote to men of property, with the

working class and women exluded from the franchise until much later. India became free

in August 1947, and two years later set up an Election Commission. In March,1950

Sukumar Sen was appointed Chief Election Commissioner. It is a pity we know so little

about Sukumar Sen. He left no memoirs and few papers either.7

For no official of

state,certainly no Indian official, has ever had such a stupendous task placed in front of

CHAPTER 3


him. Consider first of all, the size of the electorate, 176 million Indians aged 21 or more,

of whom 85% could not read or write. Each one had to be identified, named and

registered. The registration of voters was merely the first step, For how did one design

party symbols,ballot papers and ballot boxes for a mostly unlettered electorate. Then,

sites for polling stations had to be identified and honest and efficient polling officers

recruited. Moreover concurrent with the general election would be elections to the state

assemblies. Working with Sukumar Sen in this regard were the election commission of

the different provinces, also usually ICS Men.8

The polls were scheduled for the first months of 1952, although some outlying districts

would vote earlier. An American observer justly wrote that the mechanics of the election

'present a problem of collossal proportions'. some numbers will help us understand the

scale of Sen's enterprise. At stake were 4500 seats about 500 for parliament, the rest for

the provincial assemblies. 224000 polling booths were constructed and eqipped with 2

million steel ballot boxes, to make which 82,00 ton of steel were consumed, 16500 clerks

were appointed on six-month contracts to type and collate the electoral roll by

constituecy. About 3,80,000 reams of papers were used for printing the rolls; 56,000

presiding officers were chosen to supervise the voting, these aided by another 2,80,000

helpers; 2,24000 policemen were put on duty to guard against violence and

intimidation..9

The scene and facts from the First General Election to the 16th Loksabha

General election have changed much more. But the grand democratic experiment of India

in 1947 has given birth to a highly politically conscious society, which is pre-requisite for

the success of any democracy. First the voters turnout has increased and the right to vote

has become a reality. The first three Lok Sabha elections witnessed a low percentage of

voters turnout but from 1967, the voter‟s increased from 50 to 60 per cent and 65 per

cent. Similarly, the voter‟s turnout for the state assembly or Panchayati Raj elections has

many a time been 60 and 75 per cent. Compared to many western democracies, India‟s

voter‟s participation in the elections is very high.10

In General elections 2014 the voter

turnout recorded all time high in the history of Indian Loksabha elections. The vote

percentage was more than 66 percent. The traditional low turnout states also recorded

their best in this election.

CHAPTER 3


Table 6.0.1 : Voter Turonout Trend In Loksabha Elections11

Source---http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/GE2014/line.htm

The increase in the voter turnout is not only visible in Loksabha general elections, in

Assembly Elections of states also the record voter turnout visible in last five years.

Thanks to the initiative taken by Election Commission of India. Not only the increase in

voter‟s participation is a quantitative phenomenon, it has great qualitative significance.

The Indian voter has exercised his right to vote by rewarding or punishing political

parties, leaders or groups on the basis of their performance or otherwise. India has

witnessed at least two such occasion when the voter was very harsh on some leaders and

parties and wanted to teach them a lesson. Mrs. Indira Gandhi was punished in 1977

because of her emergency regime and the BJP was punished in 1993 state assembly

elections of UP,MP And HP for demolishing the Babri mosque and violating the secular

spirit of Indian democracy.12

During the last 65 years, India has held 16 elections for Lok

Sabha and more than 350 elections for the state assemblies. Except during the phase of

emergency(1975-77) the Indian voters, political parties and press have been active

participants in the democratic process of India. In this chapter will also come to the dark

era of our democracy when emergency was imposed but before this I would like to focus

on the fabrics of Indian democracy, which helped democracy a success in our country.

CHAPTER 3


3.1 RIGHT TO ELECT REPRESENTATIVES THROUGH ELECTIONS

India is a constitutional democracy with a parliamentary system of government, and at

the heart of the system is a commitment to hold regular, free and fair elections. These

elections determine the composition of the government, the membership of the two

houses of parliament, the state and union territory legislative assemblies, and the

Presidency and vice-presidency. Elections are conducted according to the constitutional

provisions, supplemented by laws made by Parliament. The democratic system in India is

based on the principle of universal adult suffrage; that any citizen over the age of 18 can

vote in an election (before 1989 the age limit was 21). The right to vote is irrespective of

caste, creed, religion or gender. Those who are deemed unsound of mind, and people

convicted of certain criminal offences are not allowed to vote. In the history of more than

65 years of its grand experiment of state and nation building on the basis of participatory

democracy, India is the only country which began its democratic journey on the basis of

universal adult franchise. It requires to be mentioned that universal adult franchise in all

the western democratic countries are a post-World War-2 phenomenon. Every western

country started its democratic journey with limited right of vote and every section of

society struggled very hard to get the right to vote in Europe and North America.13

The

country of around 120 crore people have crossed the number of 77 crore voters at the

time of 3rd

national voters day.

As India enjoys elections and the country stand out as not only the largest but a

triumphant example of democracy. In 65 years since the first elections, there have been

16 general elections and over 350 state contests. Many countries can only change

government by coups or revolutions. But in India, both at the state level and at the centre,

the governments are changed or confirmed by the people as a whole. The Constitution of

India has vested in the Election Commission of India the superintendence, direction and

control of the entire process for conduct of elections to Parliament and Legislature of

every State and to the offices of President and Vice-President of India. It is a permanent

Constitutional Body and was established in accordance with the Constitution on 25th

January 1950. Originally the commission had only a Chief Election Commissioner. It

currently consists of Chief Election Commissioner and two Election Commissioners. For

CHAPTER 3


the first time two additional Commissioners were appointed on 16th October 1989 but

they had a very short tenure till 1st January 1990. Later, on 1st October 1993 two

additional Election Commissioners were appointed. The concept of multi-member

Commission has been in operation since then, with decision making power by majority

vote.15

The Commission is committed to the conduct of free, fair and peaceful elections every

time; it takes all possible steps to ensure that the electorate participates in the electoral

process freely and fearlessly. One election to another, there are innovations in order to

make sure that the hard earned credibility and the efficient conduct of world‟s largest

elections acquires further glory. Rudolph and Rudolph note that the election commission

has a key position at the heart of new regulatory centrism of the Indian state, as an

institution (alongside the presidency and the supreme court) which act as an enforcer of

„rules that safeguarded the democratic legitimacy of the political system‟.16

The functions of the election commission, as set out in Article 324(1) were remarkably

broad. The core duties of the Election Commission can be broken down into a number of

separate undertakings:

-the delimitation of constituencies,

-the drawing up of electoral rolls,

-the supervision of the nomination of candidates,

-the administration of the electoral process,

-the surveillance of the probity of electoral conduct.17

The Election Commission has an important constitutional role in maintaining the

legitimacy of the democratic process which it has, to a large extent, performed

successfully.

CHAPTER 3


3.2 THE MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM IN INDIAN DEMOCRACY

The political parties have played a decisive role in the process of democratization in

India. It is hard to conceive of India‟s democratic system and its success without the

crucial role played by political parties. Political parties were significant institutions even

before Independence. After Independence, they assumed a new importance. On the one

hand, they provide the linkage between institutions and constituencies within the polity,

and on the other, they provide the crucial connection between the political process and

policymakers, and bring to the forefront issues affecting the interests of social groups and

the public at large. Without political parties the democratic system would not have

worked. Parties are in short the agencies and mechanisms through which power is

organized and exercised in a democracy. The most striking feature of India‟s party

politics is that it does not fit neatly into any of the theories of liberal democratic politics

or the conventional categories of party systems known in the west. Political parties in

India do not correspond to European or American party process.18

Rajni Kothari analysed

the Indian party system from the comparative perspective of the distinction between one,

two, and multi party systems. He argued that the term one party dominance expressed

India‟s party system more accurately than the term one party system, which more

precisely described the authoritarian type of party system.

Unlike in several other under-developed nations, instead of the evolution of a national

front, the split of the Indian parties seem to have occurred after independence.This gives

a special character to the Indian party system.19

Our country has selected a constitutional

system which is very close to that of the western nations like U.K., USA, Canada, etc. but

it has failed to develop a party system, similar to theirs. When we try to examine this

question we see that while the constitution of India is an essentially improved product,

drawn from the west, it has undergone a concoction in the midst of a non-western

political; process and a social and political tradition which is essentially authoritarian.

That is why the parliamentary democracy in India is less a system of great parties

fighting for the popular vote and legislative control, than a one party system, in which the

one party modifies its policies according to the pressures exerted upon it, by articulate

CHAPTER 3


public opinion and by relatively small groups of organized opposition in intermittent

conflict with it and with each other.20

The development of the Indian party system after independence revolves around four

major unsolved questions related to its federal character. These are :

1. How to consolidate the national unity and make the best use of independence for the

nation‟s all round development ;

2. How to achieve a proper representation of sectional interests under the demand of a

powerful centre for the nations defence;

3. How to get proper assistance from outside and thus develop the most beneficial

relationship with all, or at least with the best helpers; and

4. How to get the best co-relationship between the state and the central policies,

requirements and ambitions.21

The first four General Elections to the Loksabha, coincided with elections to all the state

assemblies. In the first three election congress party won an over two-thirds majority of

seats in the Loksabha and also won a majority of seats in nearly all state assembly

elections from 1952-62. The multiplicity is itself, in part, consequence of the nature of

the congress dominance. The congress skill in moving in such a manner as always to

occupy the central area leaves only a number of diverse peripheral positions for others.

The positions are, by definition, so to speak, difficult to combine from the circumference

point to another. Thus the left and the right opposition groups demonstrate more

commonness with the congress than with each other. In India, we have the splinter left

parties like those in the USA, but apart from them, we have the rightists and communal

parties also.22

The success of a large number of independents at the general elections

reflects some special characteristics of our party system. It reflects the immaturity of our

party system

It seems justifies to say that “ India represent a social case” in regard to the development

of the modern party system. But inspite of this fact, “ there is a close parallel between

CHAPTER 3


england and india;” besides, there is a party system in India which rests substatially upon

the ovewhelming superiority of one party and its leadership.23

However, Rajni Kothari see Indian party system as one party dominance system. But the

scene is changing now. After Loksabha elections 2014 the dominant party got only 44

seats BJP won more than 280. Is the dominance of one party in the Indian political

system transforming into two party dominance system. It is also noted that after the 2014

Loksabha General elections the importance of other parties or we can say regional parties

are decreasing. It will be premature to reach on any conclusion on the basis of only one

election. But it will be interesting to see that in coming years the Indian political system

takes what shape.

3.3 REGIONAL PARTIES AND COALITION POLITICS

The Congress party has been the most important political institution in India‟s modern

political history. Congress reaped the rewards of its role during the anti-colonial

movement against the British. Politics in India from 1947 to 1967 is usually characterized

as „the Congress System‟. The congress party ran governments at the centre as well as in

the state. But the post-1967 period saw a very important de-linking of parliamentary and

state assembly elections after 1971. It also saw the emergence of anti-congress alliances,

then of a principal opposition party to the congress in state after state, in most state

representing a consolidation of the non-congress space at the state level. A consolidation

of the non- congress opposition, state by state, broadly in tandem with such consolidation

in state assembly elections, took place over the period, and even led to the displacement

of the congress as one of the two leading parties or coalitions. This bipolar consolidation

was the key feature and driving force of the fragmentation of the national party system.

This trend started the era of coalition politics in India. In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan,

Himachal Pradesh, and the Union territory of Delhi, the movement towards a two party

system began as early as 1967 with the consolidation of the non-congress vote behind the

BJS, the ancestor of the BJP. This system has remained stable to date.24

In three other

states, Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura, a bipolar, congress versus Left, two-alliance

system emerged. Here the Congress or a Congress led alliance of state based minor

CHAPTER 3


parties contested against a left front coalition, the two coalitions alternation in power.25

–

ibid parties and party politics in india edited by zoya hasan-122…In five other states,

Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Goa, a Congress-regional two-

party system came into being over 1967-89, changing in the 1990s with the rise of the

BJP in all these states, after an alliance with the regional party. In one major state, Tamil

Nadu, the process began in 1967, and led to the elimination of the congress from the top

two positions. It became an essentially bipolar contest between the two leading parties,

the DMK and AIADMK , with one of the two being allied to the Congress for

parliamentary and state assembly elections. In this arrangement, which was stable from

1977 to 1996, the congress was given the lion‟s share of seats in parliamentary election in

exchange for the regional ally receiving the lion‟s share of state assembly seats. Since

1996, the regional parties have been contesting the majority of Lok Sabha seats too,

giving a few to their congress or bjp allies. In the north-eastern Rim states of Mizoram,

Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Manipur, and in Sikkim, an unstable two party or two-alliance

contest prevailed between congress and a variety of regional parties. The congress

retained preponderance until 1989 in seven major states, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana,

Gujrat, Maharastra, Karnataka and Orissa, where no alternative party or alliance

consolidate itself as a successful challenger for parliamentary elections,although a broad

front anti congress alliance, if put together, could have challenged the congress, as

happened in 1967 and 1977.26

At central level until the late 1980s, it was taken for granted that national parties would

govern India. Regional and state based parties did, of course, contest elections, but their

role was insignificant. In 1952, about 50 parties contested elections, while the number

had gone up to 342 in 2009. Since the fragmentation of the party system that set in after

the decline of one-party dominance and the coming to power of a non-congress coalition

government more and more parties have been formed with the largest number in last

elections- over a hundred new parties formed between 2004 to 2009.27

While there has

been no actual decline in the number of national parties from 1957, the number of Indians

who vote them has come down. Until 1996 the total number of seats won by regional

parties did not change much. Their numbers varied between a low of 31(1957) and a high

CHAPTER 3


of 75(1984). The major change occurred in 1996 when the number of seats won by them

went up to 127, in 1999 to 158 and in 2004 159. The increase has taken place at the

expense of national parties, especially the BJP and the Congress, which had just over 320

seats between them in 2009.28

Six elections from 1991 to 2009, no single party or

coalition got absolute majority. However the 2009 elections resulted in a near majority

for the congress-led UPA which won 262 seats. In the first five national elections from

1952 to 1971, India had a one party dominant system in which the Congress party

received a plurality of votes averaging more than 40 per cent, while the second largest

party could win only ten percent of the vote. In the 1989, 1991, 1996, 1998 and 1999

elections, the congress majority well short of the vote share needed for a seat majority.

These elections saw the vote share of the second party or alliances go up, thereby making

the system more pluralistic and copetetive.29

But the scene changed in 2014 General

Elections, after 30 years any party won simple majority on its own.

New opposition parties and ideologies began to take centrestage from the late 1980s.

This period saw the emergence of the BJP as a major force in Indian politics. It soon

overshadowed the Congress as the largest party in the 1996, 1998 and 1999 elections and

got majority on its own in 2014. At no point before 1989 had the BJP received even one-

tenth of the national vote. It emerged for the first time as the single largest party in 1996;

its vote share increased to 20.3 per cent. The BJP-led government under A.B. Vajpayee

lasted only 13 days. In 1998, the BJP-led alliance secured 253 of the 543 seats and in

1999, the NDA, a coalition of 24 parties led by the BJP, won 304 seats. The NDA lost

control of the government in the elections of April-May 2004, and was defeated by the

UPA, led by the congress. The BJP‟s vote share dipped from 22.2 per cent in 2004 to

18.8 per cent in 2009. The NDA vote share came down to 24.1 per cent in 2009. But in

2014 General Election BJP Vote share increase from 18 percent to 31 percent and party

got majority and the NDA alliance crossed the 300 mark.

The vote share of left parties has varied from 7 in 1957 to below 5 per cent in 2014. The

2004 parliamentary election represented a high point for the left, as it surpassed its own

previous record of 56 seats in 1991. The Left bloc had 61 MPs and the overall vote share

for the left was 8.3 per cent, compared to less than 5 per cent in 2014. The election of

CHAPTER 3


2014 delivered a severe blow to the Left parties. The CPM suffered its worst defeat since

its inception after the split in the united CPI in 1964. Its seat share plummeted to 9. Most

of the Left MPs are drawn from Kerala and 2 each from West Bengal and Tripura. This

underlines the limits of the Left‟s electoral support, which has been unable to grow

beyond West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, despite their resolve and attempts to do so.

Among political parties, the BJP is a atypical. It is not a denominational party, but it

promotes Hindu interests. The BJP can be better defined as an ethnic party, the promoter

of a Hindu ethnicity and nationalism defined along religious lines, which is something

much narrower than a broad, encompassing, multi-ethnic Indian nationalism. The BJP

came to form state governments on its own for the first time ever in 1990, it formed the

government on its own in MP and HP, and formed coalition government with the JD in

Rajasthan and Gujrat. The BJP had arrived as a state-level political force, where as earlier

it had essentially been a sub-state force, thereby contributing to national party system

fragmentation. Most states remained or became bipolar in the 1989-2006 period, except

notably UP. However, in a number of apparently bipolar or two-party states we find the

presence of a significant, often growing, third party that has a vote share in double digits,

but is not yet large enough to win a significant number of seats. It is obviously cutting

into the potential vote share of one or both the two main parties or alliances in a way that

makes it a threat to either or both of the two main parties as well as makes it attractive as

a potential ally of either one of them in order to defeat the other. Political Scientist Zoya

Hasan has give broadly seven explanations for the fragmentation of the Congress-

dominated national party system over the decades, none of excludes the others.

The first explanation is centered on the growing politicization of social cleavages along

regional lines since the late 1960s, due to the increasing centralization of the Congress

party and Congress governments, and latter‟s insensitivity to regional concern about

language, cultural identity, political autonomy, and economic development. This is

understood to have led to the rise and/or further consolidation of regional parties such as

the DMK and its offshoots, Akali Dal, NC, AGP, and small parties in the Northeastern

Rim states.30

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The second explanation highlights the electoral-systemic feature of delinking between

parliamentary and state assembly elections since 1971. This probably facilitated the pre-

electoral alliances and post-electoral coalition of non-Congress forces for national

elections such as in 1977 and 1989, and of non-BJP forces in 1996, since doing so

became easier without compromising their fundamental interests at the state level where

their basic social constituencies and power bases lay.31

The third explanation emphasizes the growth in political consciousness and assertion of

newly prosperous or newly mobilized sections of the electorate, primaritly intermediate

and backwar-caste peasants in the Green revoltion areas of north india, which acted both

as farmers‟ asnd intermediate castes‟ lobby from the late 1960s to the early 1990s.32

The fourth explanation is that of the growing centralization of, and suspension

of,democracy withing the Congress party since 1972, leading to the exit of both

traditional voters and politicians whose voices were not being heard, particularly certain

regional groups and intermediate and backward-caste farmers in the northern belt, to new

or other parties.33

The fifth explanation is that of the influence on incentive of a systematic feature of the

polity, the division of powers in the constitution between the centre and the states. With

the powers that are more relevant to the daily lives of people in a largely rural society,

such as agriculture and land us,irrigation and water supply, electricity, police, education,

health and other social expenditures being vested in the states, there are incentives to

organize to capture power at the state level.34

The sixth explanation is the growing politicization of communal and caste cleavages in

the 1990s, leading to the collapse of a catcall party like the Congress in states like UP and

Bihar where such politicization led to collapse of the middle ground, and the gravitation

of huge chunks of the electorate to communal and caste-based parties such as the

BJP,BSP,SP and RJD.35

CHAPTER 3


The seventh explanation is one that attaches greatest significance not to social cleavages

or the dominant congress party‟s structure and functioning, but to the systemic properties

of the FPTP electoral system working themselves out in a federal polity.36

The Indian party system is evolving over successive elections, and that the various trends

and counter-trend will play themselves out over the coming years and decades. As a

system Indian system is distinctive. Certainly it does not correspond to its European and

Amercian counterparts. Writing about it Paul Brass noted the difference: „party politics in

India display numerous paradoxical feature, which reveal the blending of western and

modern forms of bureaucratic organization and participatory policies with indigenous

practices and institutions. India‟s leading political party, the Indian National Congress, is

one of the oldest in the world, yet it has not succeeded in providing the nucleus for an

institutionalized party system which can be fitted easily into any one of the conventional

categories of party systems easily into any one of the conventional categories of party

systems known in the west‟.

3.4 DEMOCRACY IN DANGER

The experience of Indian democracy without the era of emergency will be incompleted. It

is blot on Indian experience of democracy in last 67 years. The era of Emergency, which

was inaugurated by Indira Gandhi on June 25/26, 1975, was the darkest chapter in the

democratic history of India. India experienced its greatest political crisis since the

Independence when Internal emergency was declared under the Article-352 of the

constitution of India. The emergency framed the “bread versus freedom” debate in India;

it took the argument out of the estate of national emergency in India on June 26, 1975,

analysts in the Western world wrote almost unanimously of their regret that a great

experiment had come to an end- the experiment of India‟s development within a pluralist

democratic framework. Mrs. Gandhi‟s suspension of civil liberties, her arrests of

opposition leaders, her attempts to amend the constitution, and her postponement of

scheduled national elections appeared to confirm liberal fears that an era of

authoritarianism had dawned in India.37

The government imposed strict censorship on

the Press and stifled all protest and opposition to the government. The state governments

CHAPTER 3


were rigidly controlled. The two non-congress governments of DMK in Tamil Nadu and

Janata Dal in Gujarat were dismissed in January and March 1976 despite being quite

compliant. Not only the non-congress, the Congress chief ministers of U.P. and Orissa

were replaced for not being reliable enough. The Internal democracy within the congress

party was more or less completely snuffed. From the second half of 1976 the Youth

Congress led by Sanjay Gandhi became more important than the parent organization.38

A series of decress, laws and constitutional amendments reduced the powers of the

judiciary to check the functioning of the executive. The emergency concentrated

unlimited state and party power in the hands of the prime minister to be exercised

through a small coterie of politicians and bureaucrats around her. On 18th January 1977,

Mrs Gandhi suddenly announced that elections to Loksabha would be held in March. She

also simultaneously released political prisoners, removed press censorship and other

restrictions on political activity such as holding of public meetings. Political parties were

allowed to campaign freely.39

The elections were held on 16th March in a free and fair

atmosphere, and when the results came in it was clear that Congress had been thoroughly

defeated. Both Mrs. Gandhi and Sanjay Gandhi lost their seats. Mrs. Gandhi issued a

statement accepting the verdict of the people with „due humility‟.

The lifting of the emergency and the free elections that followed, were a defining

moment in India‟s post-independence and democratic history. They revealed the Indian

people‟s underlying attachment to democratic values which were in turn the result of the

impact of the freedom struggle and the experience of democratic functioning, including

free elections, since 1947. As Tariq ali pointed out, in the elections of March 1977 „ the

urban and rural poor demonstrated in a very concrete and striking fashion that questions

of basic civil rights were not merely the preoccupations of the urban middle classes.‟

Inder Malhotra covering the election campaign, reported of the „truly remarkable‟ manner

in which „village audiences in the remote countryside react to sophisticated arguments

about civil liberties, fundamental rights and independence of the judiciary.‟

The years 1975-77 have been described as the years of the „test of democracy‟; there is

no doubt that the Indian people passed the test with distinction if no full marks. The

CHAPTER 3


period of emergency is a short period in the history of 67 years of democracy in India.

But it raised the many questions on the future and basic features of Indian democracy.

With passing of many elections at national and state level after 37 years of emergency the

Indian system has established the glory of democracy again and again with changing of

successive government with the people mandate. The period of 67 years to evaluate the

democracy in any country is short period of time but in vast and diversified country like

India this time period can be considered as an era which is enough to judge the success

and failure of democracy. And no doubt in it that after every election India celebrated the

democracy.

It would be better to sum up this chapter with following sentences of Chief Election

Commissioner of India V.S.Sampath “ We have earned very good name in democratic

credentials. We should improve this credentials more. We have always requested political

parties and leaders to keep up the level of dignity of your campaigning. Our appeal once

again would be election come and go, people win people lose and that‟s all different, but

the rules of the game have to be played fairly. We would request all the political parties

to cooperate in the largest interest of the democracy.”40

CHAPTER 3


REFERENCES

1. http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/17261/6/06_chapter%201.pdf…

2. Schumpeter. 1976. Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. London: Allen and

Unwin. Pp. 269

3. B holden, the nature of democracy, pp. 66 .

4. http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/17261/6/06_chapter%201.pdf

5. J. Plamenatax democracy and illusion p.34…

6. Zoya Hasan, parties and party politics in india,.pp.1

7. Ramchandra Guha, India after Gandhi, the history of the world‟s largest

democracy,(2007) pp. 133-134

8. Ibid.

9. Ibid.

10. C.p.bhambri, Indian politics since independenc, volume 2,pp.116-117

11. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/GE2014/line.htm

12. C.p.bhambri, Indian politics since independenc, volume 2,pp.117

13. Ibid., pp.116

14. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/current/CEC_NVD_30012013.pdf

15. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/the_setup.aspx

16. The Oxford Companion to Politics in India by Niraja Gopal Jayal/Pratap Bhanu

Mehta…Page-98

17. Ibid., pp.101

18. Ibid., pp. 241

19. Verinder Grover, political parties and party system, pp.723

20. Ibid., pp.724

21. Ibid., pp.724-725

22. Ibid., pp. 723

23. Ibid., pp.724

24. Zoya Hasan, Parties and Party Politics in India, pp.122

25. Ibid.

26. Ibid.


Mehta…pp.245

28. Ibid.

29. Ibid., pp.246

30. Zoya Hasan, parties and party politics in india,.pp.129-130

31. Ibid.

32. Ibid.\

33. Ibid.

34. Ibid.

35. Ibid.

36. Ibid.

37. Shashi Tharoor, India: from midnight to the millennium and beyond, pp.199-200

http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/17261/6/06_chapter%201.pdf

http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/GE2014/line.htm

http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/current/CEC_NVD_30012013.pdf

http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/the_setup.aspx

CHAPTER 3


38. Bipan Chandra, Mridula Mukherjee, Adity Mukherjee, India after independence,

pp.254


pp.259

40. Chief Election Commissioner of India, Interview by the researcher.

EXIT POLL AND OPINION POLLS:

ROLE OF SURVEYS

IN PREDICTING AND SHAPING THE

OUTCOME

CHAPTER 4


EXIT POLL AND OPINION POLLS: ROLE OF SURVEYS IN

PREDICTING AND SHAPING THE OUTCOME

In all democratic countries media, politicians and political observers have become

increasingly obsessed with forecasting elections results. India is no exception, although

the largest democracy of the world came late into the business of opinion polling.

Political parties and media have been much influenced by opinion polls in deciding on

the timing of elections as well as in shaping their campaign strategy. The purpose of

forecasts now extends beyond merely entertaining a curious public eager to know what is

going to happen. Politicians and newspaper readers also look to public and private polls

for help on three questions: when will the election occur? Why and how will the people

use their vote? How will those votes be translated into seats in parliament? Psephology

or poll forecasting, first popularised by Gallup in the West, is the science of making

predictions based on field surveys as well as analysing electoral results. An opinion poll

is a survey of public opinion, usually designed to represent the opinions of a population

by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within

confidence intervals. An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they

have exited the polling stations. Pollsters – usually private companies working for

newspapers or broadcasters – conduct polls to gain an early indication as to how an

election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even days

to count.

Warren Mitosfsky, founder of Mitofsky International, is credited with having invented

the exit poll. It is pertinent to track the actual beginning of opinion polls and elections

studies in the worldwide perspective before going to trace the origin of poll surveys in

India based on opinion poll. The beginning of the polling started when Dr. Gallup

founded the American institute of public opinion in Princeton, New Jersey, USA, in the

year 1935. The objectivity of this organization was to determine the opinions held by

people with objectivity and impartiality. The first prediction made by Gallup that

Franklin Roosevelt would defeat Alfred Landon for the “Gallup polls” is best known for

its accuracy in predicting the election outcome of US presidential elections. The only two

notable exceptions in their track record were the 1948 Thomas Dewey-Harry‟s Truman

CHAPTER 4


elections when they wrongly predicted like other pollsters that Dewey will win, but he

actually lost. The second inaccurate prediction was in 1976 when Gallup poll indicated

that Gerald ford would win, but he actually lost to jimmy carter by small margin1

4.1 SIGNIFICANCE OF SURVEYS IN THE LARGEST DEMOCRACY OF THE

WORLD

In India till sometimes back and we can say that before the emergence of 24 hours news

channel in India poll surveys were just of academic importance, and not much credence

or valued time was devoted to analyze them. But with changing times and media's reach,

especially with the emergence of news channels, they became more and more acceptable

and recognizable. They have now become a part of every election. Psephology, the

formal study of elections, is only a little older than independent India. In India some

valuable research completed on voting, nationally and locally. It ranges from the pioneer

work of W.H. Morris Jones, J.O.Field and Myron Wiener to more specialized studies

such as those by A.H.Somjee, V. Siriskar, B. Ahmed and S.Eldersveld, as well as by

E.P.W. de Costa and others who have ventures into opinion polling.2

In the 1950s, there were virtually no market research organizations in India. The

dominance of the congress diminished any incentive to develop political polls. The first

national poll was carried out by the Indian institute of public opinion (IIPO) before the

1957 general election3. Dr. Eric da Costa - the founder of the Indian institute of public

opinion (IIPO) in the early 1950s, which was modelled on the American institute of

public opinion – is credited with pioneering elections studies and is considered the father

of opinion polling in India4. The IIPO has covered almost all subsequent elections till

1980s. IIPO‟s procedure has been to measure the percentage of votes likely to be cast for

each party and to convert votes into seats using a „multiplier‟ (defined as the percent of

seats for a party divided by its percent of votes). The problem with the „multiplier‟ is that

it varies and cannot be assessed before an election5. The news magazine India Today has

played a major role in promoting professional opinion polling in India. In 1980 it

commissioned IMRB with Ashok Lahiri and Prannoy Roy to conduct the first-ever large

All-India survey5

CHAPTER 4


One tool of research that has only recently been exploited in India is the opinion poll. The

diversity of the country and the difficulty of framing questions that are equally

meaningful to different linguistic and communal groups, as well as the sheer cost, has

held back its development. It is a technique that has proved valuable elsewhere and that

can reveal not only how far men and women, old and young, rich and poor, vote

different, but also how votes correlate with opinions about issues. Opinion polls get most

publicity when used by the media for forecasting elections results. But academic sample

surveys, asking an elaborate battery of questions about the elector‟s background and

attitudes, can offer much more profound insights into the whys and the wherefores of

voting6

In Ireland, a generation ago it used to be said that opinion polls would never

work. The Irish were such charming people that, instead of giving their real views, they

would always be trying to please the interviewer. Similar doubts about polls are still

expressed in India, and to them are added the real difficulties of conducting interviews in

many languages, often with illiterate, uninformed, or merely fearful respondents.

However, polls are now an established part of the Irish electoral scene and in India they

are approaching that status. In 1989, they were spectacularly successful in forecasting the

result. Although polls are fallible, especially in Indian conditions, it is possible to derive

from sample surveys a far more accurate picture of the voting intentions and political

attitudes of the Indian electorate than from any other source7.

In the Indian democracy elections are not merely a process to select and choose the

governments. In India elections are considered as a festival of democracy. Our country

enjoy elections and stand out as not only the largest but a triumphant example of

democracy. Despite of many failing of our political parties and politicians no one can

doubt the success of the democratic process. In more than 65 years of Indian democracy

country has witnessed 16 Loksabha elections and more than 350 state assembly elections.

In many countries governments change by coups or revolutions but in our country since

the independence of our country in 1947 both at the state level and at the centre, the

governments are changed or confirmed by the people as a whole. For example, In

General elections of Loksabha 1977 the Indian electorate threw out one government but

in 1980 they decided that it should come back. In 1984, at a time of crisis, they gave an

emphatic mandate to a new leader. In 1989 they opted for change. In 1991 they reverted

CHAPTER 4


narrowly to the traditional dominance of the congress. In 1996 they didn‟t vote to return

the congress however the successive two governments were in existence with the support

of the Congress. 1998 Indian voters gave largest number of seats to BJP and in 1999 it

was almost repeated again. In 2004 the mood of the voters changed and country

witnessed congress as the largest party again and the verdict was repeated in 2009

Loksabha elections with electorate gave close to magic number of 272 seats to congress

led UPA again. After 5 years the mood of the electorate changed in way that the party

which won 206 seats in last election performed worst in the history of independent India.

The congress party won its lowest tally of 44. On the other hand the electors of Indian

imposed the faith in Bharatiya Janata Party which won on its own over 280 seats, a

mandate not seen in last 30 years of Loksabha elections, and the BJP led NDA won more

than 330 seats.

Politicians and journalists have always tried to develop a sense of how public opinion is

moving. But it is very difficult to translate a broad perception of mood into precise

quantitative terms, measuring a small change in party‟s vote. Forecasting the number of

seats likely to be won is an even more hazardous occupation than forecasting votes. A

small swing of vote can cause a disproportionately large change in seats. For pollsters,

therefore, even normal sampling errors can have a significant impact in terms of seats

won or lost.8

International experience has shown that the most accurate way of measuring

party support is to conduct a mass opinion survey of a cross-section of the public, using a

sample selected on scientific principles. In 1936, since Dr. Gallup launched this

technique, it has been adopted all over the world to forecast the outcome of elections. In

most cases, the percentage vote of each party has been predicted with a reasonably high

degree of accuracy. However, there have been some spectacular failures.9

It is ironic, for

instance, that, when Dr. Gallup made his reputation in 1936 by correctly predicting

president Roosevelt‟s re-election, his forecast had a large error than the prediction he

made later which so severely damaged his reputation. In 1936 Gallup over-stated

Roosevelt‟s vote by 7 percent (Roosevelt won with 55 percent of the vote compared to

the gall up forecast of 62 percent); in 1948, though gallup‟s error was only 4.5 percent, he

predicted the wrong winner (dewey lost by 4 percent while gall up had forecast a victory

margin of 5 percent.10

CHAPTER 4


Polls can go wrong because they are incompetently conducted, or because poor sampling

procedure is used, or because a significant number of electors stay away from the booth.

Apologists claim that they err frequently because of a „late-swing‟-voters changing their

minds during the last few days, between the final opinion poll interviews and the actual

casting of ballots. The problem with all analysis and surveys of elections is that it

ultimately rests on the votes of individuals. Voters are, almost necessarily, treated as

equal expressions of support, even though a vote means very different things to different

people. To some it is a resounding statement of faith in a party or an individual; to others

it is a marginal, almost random choice, a hesitant decision about the lesser evil. Voting

statistics do not have intensity measurements attached to them. Yet, just as a relationship

can range from a passionate love-affair to a casual acquaintance, so a vote can signify

powerful convictions or near apath. When on builds great edifices of explanation on the

statistics of an election result, on should remember how varied in quality the bricks that

on is using are.11

Elections are an inevitable part of democratic societies. Democracies provide universal

suffrage, the right to vote to its citizens. Whether the constant hammering of media

messages has any perceptible impact on the behaviour of the people is a matter of much

empirical research. Political parties, candidates, media organization and researchers,

however, are interested to know how people perceive the political campaigns, which by

and large are mediated through mass media. That people with different demographic

profile think and behave differently is also a matter of interests to the campaigners as this

helps them preparing messages to suit the psyche of electorate with varying backgrounds

and tastes to get the “desired response”.

For a long time scholars, who have studied the media behaviour of the public have found

a close relationship between their interest level in politics and attention to political

stimulus through mass media coverage. The phenomenon has several consequences in

political communication. The most interested in politics can also partisans or „brand

loyalists‟ to certain political parties. This leads one to seeking more political information

about political parties or candidates of their choice. The impact of media, the research

suggests, is likely to be greatest when the recipients of the message have little

CHAPTER 4


information and existing attitudes.12

The role of opinion polling especially during the last

few decades has been a subject of much fascination to those who are engaged in it but of

concern to political scientists, sociologists and concerned citizenry.

4.2 ROLE AND IMPACT OF SURVEYS IN VARIOUS ELECTIONS

The IIPO was the first organization in India to conduct an election survey. In 1957, the

first all India level election poll was conducted before the second LokSabha election.

Based on this survey, the first election prediction was done which was quite accurate.

Eric da costa reviewing the operations of IIPO in 1980 said: “….it was not known at that

time whether in fact an all India poll was truly feasible. The obstacles of illiteracy and the

difficulties of organizing random samples in many areas of the India union seemed

overwhelming. The first that the experiment was a extraordinary success was not proved

until the first national poll was published in 1957.” The IIPO conducted election surveys

till 1980s, but after the exit of Dr. Costa, opinion polling on elections did not figure high

on the agenda of the organization and it was discontinued. The institutional beginning of

academic study of general elections based on an all India sample survey started at the

centre for the study of developing societies (CSDS), Delhi, in the 1960s. The study

popularly known as the national election study was first conducted in 1967 as a scientific

study of the political behaviour, opinion, and attitudes of the electorates in India. This

was followed by another national level study conducted during the 1971 general

elections. During the 1980 Loksabha elections, while the CSDS designed the all India

survey, the IIPO conducted the fieldwork. Although this survey was not the part of the

series, but it can be used to partly fill the gap in the series14

During the 1980s, survey

research of elections and voting behaviour did not figure prominently on the centre‟s

intellectual agenda, nor was the series take over by any other institution, which resulted

in a long break in the time series data and it was in the mid-1990s that the CSDS revived

the nes tradition and it remains one of the most prestigious studies of voting behaviour in

India.15

In 1991, most of the polls seemed to fare reasonably well. Three of the four

nationwide surveys came up with forecasts that were within 20 seats of the final congress

tally of 232 seats.(India today 233; frontline 224; week 245-270). Only one (Sunday 310)

seemed seriously in error. But all these surveys conducted before the assassination of

Rajiv Gandhi. There is no doubt that the assassination produced a sharp swing to the

CHAPTER 4


congress. If the constituencies that voted belatedly in June had behaved like those that

voted on 21st May, the Congress would seem to be the correct benchmark against which

to assess the accuracy of the 1991 polls.16

Till 2009 in Loksabh election barring a few

occasions, such surveys have, however, never been appropriate or even close to the mark.

The opinion polls and the exit polls conducted during 2004 and 2009 general elections

are examples of some of the worst surveys conducted by agencies. In the 2004 elections,

every agency in its forecast declared NDA as the winner. But the results went the other

way. It was predicted that the BJP and its allies would win about 230-250 seats and the

Congress and allies close to 205. But the Congress and its allies went ahead and formed

the government with 219 seats and the NDA could not cross the 190 mark. It‟s a matter

of research also that why despite of surveys conducted by the many agencies, the

outcome and direction of exit or opinion polls are in the same way. The reason for this

tendency according to the director of CSDS Mr. Sanjay Kumar “Also, agencies

conducting opinion polls get influenced by each other‟s polls. If two or more polls show a

particular party as the winner, the third agency tries to dilute its survey if it has a different

result,”17

In 2009 general election most opinion polls and exit polls conducted by major

agencies gave the UPA an edge over the NDA, but none were predicted almost simple

majority for the UPA. When the final results came UPA got close to the number of seats

needed for simple majority. NDA was short behind prediction in many surveys.

4.3 ANALYSIS OF EXIT POLLS AND ACTUAL RESULTS OF DIFFERENT

ELECTIONS

To know the success and failures of exit polls in India, the analysis of election exit polls

results have been done. The exit polls results sample taken randomly during last 10-15

years elections. It is noticeable that last 15 years are also the era of emergence and rapid

growth of television news channels in India. To understand the success and failure of exit

polls in India I randomly selected 24 elections for which exit polls have done since 2002.

Among these 24 elections exit polls, 3 are of Loksabha General elections and rest are of

assembly elections. Out of 24 sample of exit polls 16 are of elections that were held since

2009 or during the last 5 years Period. It will help to understand the trends of the exit

polls in predicting the election outcome in recent years. The results of exit polls were

compared with actual results the election. On two basic grounds success and failure of the

CHAPTER 4


results decided. First, whether exit polls were able to read the mood of voters that which

party or alliance is going to win largest number of seats and Second, whether the exit

polls prediction of seats for the parties got right or near the actual number. After the

comparison of the exit polls and actual results the performance and evaluation of exit

polls decided on four categories--- Very Good, Good, Bad and Worst.

In the Very Good category those exit polls have been place which were succeeded in

reading the mood of the Voter and seats of the Party or alliance on the same line what

final outcome has produced.

In Good category those exit polls have been placed which were able to read the voters

mood but couldn't able to predict the right number of seats. For example: exit polls

predicted that Party A will got largest number of seats or got majority marks but failed to

get the extent of win or loss in terms number of seats.

In Bad category those elections exit polls were placed which were not able to predict the

clear winner or loser...in some cases different agencies or news channels divided in their

predictions for the same elections also.

In the Worst category case those exit polls were placed in which the actual outcome were

entirely opposite to the exit polls predictions... Those exit polls were also placed in this

category in which exit polls results were showing close fight between parties and alliance

but finally the clear winner emerged.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.1: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Loksabha General Election

200418

PARTY/ALLIANCE

NDA UPA OTHERS

POLL AGENCIES

AAJ TAK/ORG 248 190 105

NDTV/INDIAN

EXP.

230-250 190-205 100-120

SAHARA/DRS 263-278

171-181 92-102

STAR NEWS 263-275 174-186 86-98

ZEE NEWS 249 176 117

ACTUAL 185 217 137

SOURCE-

16,MAY

2004/PIONEER

The analysis of exit poll and actual results of general elections 2004 shows that the

pollsters failed to read the mood of voters very badly. All agencies gave National

democratic alliance over 272 plus seats or near 272 seats. Not a single pollsters had

predicted that United progressive alliance will get 217 seats. it shows that the 2004 exit

polls not only failed in projecting the seats which is no where around the actual seats but

polls also failed to read the mood of voters. The exit polls of 2004 general elections

considered as the worst exit polls in the history of psephology.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.2 : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Loksabha General Election

200919

PARTY/AL

LIANCE

NDA UPA THIRD

FRONT

FOURTH

FRONT

POLL

AGENCY

CNN-

IBN/DAINI

K

BHASKAR

165-

185

185-

205

110-130 25-35

STAR-

NIELSEN

196 199 100 36

INDIA TV-

C VOTER

183-

195

189-

201

105-121

ACTUAL 159 262 79 27

SOURCE-

http://www.hindu.com/20

09/05/14/stories/2009051

457840100.htm/

ELECTION

COMMISSION OF

INDIA

The exit polls of general elections 2009 was not only failed but also seemed confused

over which alliance or party will win. Exit polls results were giving in the range of

around 200 seats to both alliance- NDA and UPA. However actual results were very clear

in favour of UPA. UPA were only 10 short of clear majority and NDA were not only far

away from majority number, the alliance was short of minimum numbers of seats given

by the pollsters to NDA. In this election also exit polls failed to predict the outcome in

both ways in terms of seats and reading the mood of the voters.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.3 : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Loksabha General Election

201420

CHANNEL BJP+ CONGRESS+ OTHERS

ABP-NEWS 281 97 165

CNN-IBN 270-282 92-102 150-159

INDIA TODAY 261-283 101-120 152-162

INDIA TV 289 101 153

NEWS24/CHANAKYA 340 70 133

TIMES NOW 249 148 146

ACTUAL 336 58 149

SOURCES-

http://www.india.com/election-

2014/parties/aam-aadmi-

party/lok-sabha-elections-2014-

exit-poll-results-19422/Election

Commission of India

The results of general elections 2014 established the credibility of exit polls first time in

the era of television news channels. However expect one all exit polls were not predicted

the numbers the NDA got in the final counting but every exit polls were projecting the

big victory for NDA, so almost all exit polls prediction, in number of seats, was near the

actual numbers. But exit polls also failed here in predicting the seats of UPA. Except

News 24/Chanakya no one had predicted humiliating defeat to the UPA, which won only

58 seats in the actual count.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.4 : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Maharashtra Assembly

Elections 2004 21

PARTY/ALLIANCE INC+ BJP+ OTHERS

POLLING

AGENCY

AAJ TAK 140-150 100-110 30-40

NDTV 120-130 125-135 30-45

STAR 142 122 24

ZEE

125 115 48

ACTUAL

141 117 30

SOURCE-

WIKIPEDIA

MAHARASTRA

ASSEMBLY

ELECTION,2004

In Maharashtra assembly elections 2004 maximum of exit polls succeeded to predict the

mood and numbers of seats. The table show that out of four, two of exit poll agency or

news channels were in range of actual number of seats and two of them were near. The

exit polls were also succeeded to predict the number of runner-up seats near the actual

results.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.5 : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Maharashtra Assembly

Elections 200922

PARTY/ALLIANCE CONG-NCP SS-BJP MNS OTHERS

POLLING

AGENCY

CNN-IBN 135-145 105-115 8-12 25-35

STAR NEWS-

NIELSON

137 113 12 26

ACTUAL

OUTCOME

144 91 13 40

SOURCE-

WIKIPEDIA

MAHARASTRA

ASSEMBLY

ELECTION,2009

The exit polls of Maharashtra assembly elections 2009 was also considered as a

successful one in predicting the mood and number of seats in favour of Cong-Ncp

Alliance. However the prediction of runner-up seats was short of the predictions but

mood of the voters gauged by the pollsters.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.6 : Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Uttar Pradesh Assembly

Election 200223

PARTY/ALLIANCE BJP CONG SP+ BSP+

POLL AGENCY

AAJ TAK 142 22 136 83

DD 118 36 156 80

ZEE 131 24 145 84

TIMES/DRS 122-134 10-20 155-170 80-84

ACTUAL 109 26 146 99

SOURCE-

INDIAN

EXPRESS, 26

FEB, 2002

The exit polls of Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2002 was also a success. However no

party got clear majority in the finals results in four cornered contest in the largest state of

Indian. Exit polls also showed the fractured mandate in this elections which was proved

by the actual results of the elections.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.7: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Uttar Pradesh Assembly

Election 200724

PARTY/ALLIAN

CE

BJP CONG SP BSP

POLL AGENCY

STAR-NIELSON 108 27 96 137

CN-IBN/INDIAN

EXPRESS

108 21-27 145 152-168

ACTUAL 51

22 97 206

SOURCE-

http://www.dancewit

hshadows.com/politi

cs/up-exit-polls.asp

In the assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh 2007, the exit polls were in no win situation.

Not a single agency was right. However almost all agencies gave maximum seats to BSP,

but no one had predicted that Party will cross the magic number of 202.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.8: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Uttar Pradesh Assembly

Election 201225

ALLIAN

CE/PAR

TY

BSP SP BJP INC-RLD OTHERS

POLL

AGENC

Y

STAR

NEWS-

NIELSE

N

83 183 71 51 11

CNN-

IBN

65-77 232-

250

28-38 36-44 11-23

AAJ

TAK

88-98 195-

210

50-56 38-42 20

ACTUA

L

80 224 47 37 15 SOURCE-

http://en.wikipedia.or

g/wiki/Uttar_Pradesh

_Legislative_Assemb

ly_election,_2012#O

pinion_polls/SOURC

E-ELECTION

COMMISSION OF

INDIA

The exit polls of 2012 elections of Uttar Pradesh got almost right in terms of reading

mood and predicting the seats. The exit polls were also succeeded in predicting the seats

of rest of the parties right.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.9: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Punjab Assembly Election

200226

PARTY/ALLIANCE BJP+ CONG+

POLL AGENCY

AAJ TAK 17 91

DD/C FOR 30 72

ACTUAL 44 62

SOURCE-INDIAN EXPRESS, 26

FEBRUARY, 2002

The exit polls done during Punjab assembly elections 2002 was success in predicting

mood of the voters but not the number of seats. All pollsters given congress the majority

of seats but the difference of seats in actual and exit polls results may be considered as

failure, if we see the strength of Punjab assembly, which is only 117.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.10: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Punjab Assembly Election

201227

ALLIANCE/P

ARTY

BJP-

SAD

CON

G

OTHERS

POLL

AGENCY

INDIA TV/C

VOTER

44-50 62-68

HEADLINES

TODAY

58-62 50-54

NEWS

24/CHANAK

YA

52 60

CSDS/IBN 51-63 48-60

STAR NEWS-

NIELSEN

58 56

ACTUAL 68 46 3

SOURCE---

http://www.hindustantimes.com/pun

jab/chandigarh/4--exit-polls-give-an-

edge-to-congress-in-punjab/article1-

820349.aspx/ELECTION

COMMISSION OF INDIA

The exit poll results of Punjab assembly election 2012 was in the category of failed. Not

only it failed to predict but the different poll agencies are in difference in predicting, who

will win. Some of them were showing win for BJP-SAD alliance and some of them

showed win for Congress.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.11: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Kerala Assembly Elections

201128

ALLIAN

E/PARTY

LDF UDF OTHERS

POLL

AGENCY

CSDS-CNN

IBN

69-77 63-71

C

FORE/ASIA

NET

58-68 78-82 0-2

HEADLINE

S TODAY-

ORG

48-55 85-92

STAR

NEWS

49 88

CHANAKY

A-NEWS 24

35-53 84-102 0-6

ACTUAL 68 72 SOURCE-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala_L

egislative_Assembly_election,_2011#

Post-poll_surveys/ELECTION

COMMISSION OF INDIA

The Kerala assembly elections 2011 exit polls were able to read the mood of voters but

they were not able to predict the number of the winner what they actually won in the final

outcome. Few among them gave winner more seats in comparison to actual numbers

alliance got, and some of them gave lesser number of seats in comparison to actual

numbers what the runner-up got.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.12: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Karnataka Assembly

Elections 201329

ALLIAN

CE/PAR

TY

CONG BJP JD

S

KJP OTH

ERS

TIMES

NOW

132 38 38 15

HEADLI

NES

TODAY

114 55 34 11 9

C

VOTER

110-118 51-59 31-

37

9-13 7-11

ABP

NEWS

110-118 51-59 31-

37

9-13

ACTUA

L

122 40 40 6 16

SOURCE-

http://electionaffairs.c

om/karnataka/assembl

y_elections_2013/exit

_poll_karnataka_asse

mbly_elections_2013.

php

In the 224 assembly seats of Karnataka, every poll agencies or news channels predicted

majority for the congress party and predictions were also around the actual results. It is

clear from the table analysis that mood of voters and seats predicted for the different

parties in the states were on the line of voter mood.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.13: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Bihar Assembly Election

201030

PARTY/ALLIANCE JDU-BJP RJD-LJP CONG OTHERS

POLL

AGENCY/NEWS

CHANNEL

CNN-IBN 185-201 21-32 6-12 9-19

STAR NEWS-

NIELSON

148 68 14 13

C-VOTER 142-154 59-71 12-18

ACTUAL 206 25 4 8

SOURCE-20th

Nov, 2010,

Exit polls

results: Bihar

election 2010,

A Website.

The exit polls of Bihar assembly elections 2010 was very much in reading the mood of

the voters. But all pollsters except one were nowhere around the numbers what the NDA

alliance got after the counting held. It clearly shows that the exit polls failed to gauge the

number of seats what the different parties or alliance got. All exit polls were showing

clear mandate to NDA but except one no one had predicted landslide victory to the NDA.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.14: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Gujrat Assembly Elections

200731

PARTY/

ALLIANCE

BJP CONG OTHERS

POLL

AGENCY

CNN-IBN 92-100 77-85

NDTV 24/7 90-110 70-95

STAR NEWS 103 76

ACTUAL 117 59 6

SOURCE-IBN

POLITICS

WEBSITE, 23

DEC, 2007

The exit polls of Gujrat Assembly Elections were giving clear mandate to BJP and actual

results also confirmed it with big mandate to the party. But in the case of congress all exit

polls were giving more seats to the party what it actually won. It may be good to say that

successful in reading the mood of voters but not in predicting the actual seats.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.15: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Gujrat Assembly Elections

201232

ALLIANCE/PO

LL

BJ

P

CON

G

OTHER

S

POLL

AGENCY

C VOTER-

TIMES NOW

119

-

129

49-59

CHANAKYA-

NEWS 24

140 40

HEADLINES

TODAY

118

-

128

50-56

ABP NEWS 116 60

ACTUAL 116 60 6 SOURCE-

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com

/2012-12-17/news/35868737_1_vote-share-

polls-on-television-channels-

seats/ELECTION COMMISSION OF

INDIA

The maximum exit polls of 2012 Gujrat assembly elections were very close in predicting

the seats and reading the mood of voters. It can be said that it was a success in both terms

in predicting actual number of seats and reading the mood.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.16: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Tamilnadu Assembly

Elections 200633

PARTY/A

LLIANCE

DMK+ AIAD

MK+

OTHERS

POLL

AGENCIE

S

CNN-IBN

HINDU

157-

167

64-74 2-6

ACTUAL 163 69 2

SOURCE---

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Nadu

_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2006#

Exit_polls

The exit polls of Tamilnadu Assembly elections 2006 was a good success. The actual

number of winner and runner-up were in same range what exit poll had predicted.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.17: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Tamilnadu Assembly

Elections 201134

ALLIANC

E/PARTY

DMK+ AIADMK+ OTHERS

POLL

AGENCY

HEADLIN

ES

TODAY/O

RG

115-130 105-120

CNN-

IBN/THE

WEEK

102-114 120-132

ASIANET

-C FORE

POLL

117 132

STAR

NEWS

124 110


http://en.wikipedia.org/

wiki/Tamil_Nadu_Legi

slative_Assembly_elect

ion,_2011#Post-

poll_surveys

The exit polls of Tamilnadu assembly election 2011 were a clear blot on the pollsters

because the success achieved in 2006 were turned down completely in 2011 assembly

elections. Even no pollsters were able to gauge the mood of voters, no one had given

majority to any party or alliance. The exit polls performance were as worst as in 2004

General Election of loksabha.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.18: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of West Bengal Assembly

Elections 201135

ALLIA

NCE/P

ARTY

TMC+ LEFT BJP OTHERS

POLL

AGEN

CY

STAR

NEWS

-

NIELS

EN

225 34 2 33

IBN-

WEEK

222-234 60-72 2 10

ACTU

AL

227 62 0 5

SOURCE-

http://electionaffairs.com/W

est%20Bengal/assembly_ele

ctions_2011/Exit_Poll_resul

ts_West%20Bengal_Assem

bly_Elections_2011.html/E

LECTION COMMISSION

OF INDIA

The exit polls of West Bengal assembly elections 2011 were a clear success. In terms of

predicting the number and mood, in both case polls were near or in the range of actual

numbers.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.19: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Uttarakhand Assembly

Elections 201236

ALLIA

NCE/P

ARTY

BJP CON

G

OTHERS

POLL

AGEN

CY

STAR

NEWS

39 29 2

HEAD

LINES

TODA

Y

26-

30

38-42 0

NEWS

24

28 30 12

NEWS

EXPRE

SS

26 32 12

INDIA

TV

22-

29

29-35 0

ACTU

AL

31 32 7 SOURCE---

http://electionaffairs.com/uttarakhand/stat

e_assembly_elections_2012/exit_poll_res

ults_uttarakhand_Assembly_Elections_20

12.html/ECI

The actual outcome of the Uttrakhand Assembly elections was presented a hung

assembly in the state. If we analyse the different exit poll results there were many

indications from this polls. First different exit polls were in different position in gauging

the mood of the voter. Second thing is that except two agencies/news channel no one

gave any party majority. It was also interesting that two agencies were giving majority to

two different parties, one to the Congress and one to the BJP. The exit poll results of

Uttarakhand assembly elections 2012 failed to read both mood and numbers of the

parties.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.20: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Himachal Pradesh

Assembly Elections 201237

ALLIANCE/PO

LL

BJ

P

CON

G

OTHER

S

POLL

AGENCY

C VOTER-

TIMES NOW

27-

35

30-38

CHANAKYA-

NEWS 24

23 40 5


http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com

/2012-12-17/news/35868737_1_vote-share-

polls-on-television-channels-

seats/ELECTION COMMISSION OF

INDIA

The exit polls results of Himachal Pradesh elections were somewhere on the same line

what actual results produced. They were around the actual numbers but in case of small

states the predictions should be more close to the actual number.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.21: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Madhya Pradesh Assembly

Elections 201338

ALLIANCE/PA

RTY

BJP CO

NG

BSP OTHERS

AGENCY

TIMES NOW-C

VOTER

128 92 6 4

ORG-INDIA

TODAY

138 80 12

CHANAKYA 161 62 7

ABP NEWS-

NIELSEN

138 80 6

CNN-

IBN/CSDS

136-146 67-

77

13-21

ACTUAL 165 58 4 3

SOURCE---

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.

com/india/Assembly-

elections-Exit-polls-point-to-

Congress-rout-in-four-states-

vary-wildly-on-

Delhi/articleshow/26869114.c

ms

The actual results of the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections 2013 shows that the exit

polls results for the state were successful in reading the mood but they were not able to

predict that BJP will get landslide victory in the state. Except one agency all were far

away from the actual seats BJP and runner-up won.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.22: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Ch Attishgarh Assembly

Elections 201339

ALLIANCE/PA

RTY

BJP CONG BSP OTHERS

AGENCY

TIMES NOW-C

VOTER

44 41 2 3

ORG-INDIA

TODAY

53 33 4

CHANAKYA 51 39

CSDS 45-55 32-40 1-7

ACTUAL 49 39 2

SOURCE-

http://timesofindi

a.indiatimes.com

/india/Assembly-

elections-Exit-

polls-point-to-

Congress-rout-

in-four-states-

vary-wildly-on-

Delhi/articlesho

w/26869114.cms

In Chhattisgarh assembly exit polls 2013 all exit polls were around the actual seats BJP

and Congress won. Naturally the exit polls were successful in reading the mood of the

voters and number of seats parties won.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.23: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Delhi Assebmly Elections

201340

PARTY/ALLIA

NCE

BJP CONG AAP OTHERS

POLL

AGENCY

TIMES NOW-C

VOTER

31 24 11 4

INDIA

TODAY-ORG

41 20 6 3

CHANAKYA 29 10 31 0

ABP-NEWS

NIELSON

37 16 15 2

ACTUAL 31 8 28 3

SOURCE-

http://timesofindia.india

times.com/india/Assem

bly-elections-Exit-polls-

point-to-Congress-rout-

in-four-states-vary-

wildly-on-

Delhi/articleshow/26869

114.cms

In case of Delhi assembly elections 2013 exit polls showed mixed results. However poll

agencies were predicting BJP as the largest party in the 70 member Assembly. But except

one poll agency/news channel all were failed to read the mood of voters and number of

seats of opposition parties. Analysis of the results show that except one agency all were

failed to reach near the actual outcome.

CHAPTER 4


Table 4.3.24: Depicting The Exit And Actual Poll Results Of Rajasthan Assembly

Elections 201341

ALLIANCE/PAR

TY

BJP CONG OTHERS

AGENCY

TIMES NOW-C

VOTER

130 48 21

ORG-INDIA

TODAY

110 62 28

CHANAKYA 147 39 14

CSDS 126-136 49-57 12-20

ACTUAL 163 21 16

SOURCE-

http://timesofindia.indiati

mes.com/india/Assembly

-elections-Exit-polls-

point-to-Congress-rout-

in-four-states-vary-

wildly-on-

Delhi/articleshow/26869

114.cms

The actual results of the Rajasthan assembly elections 2013 shows that the exit polls

results for the state were successful in reading the mood that who will be the largest party

in the state but they were not able to predict that BJP will get landslide victory in the

state. No agency was near the actual seats won by the BJP and Congress.

CHAPTER 4


4.4 RESULTS OF ANALYSIS

The analysis of the all twenty-four elections exit polls and actual results show mixed

picture about the exit polls. After comparison between the actual results and exit poll

results of 24 general elections(3 Loksabha+21 State Assemblies) it has been found that

in 6 elections exit polls performance were in the category of worst. In 1 elections exit

polls performance were in bad category. In case of 8 elections the exit polls performed in

the category of Very Good and in 9 elections the performance were in Good Category.

The analysis of the results show that the exit polls predictions were not so bad or worst as

the public image is. However the analysis show that in Loksabha general elections 2014

exit polls got first time right since 1999 election. In last 3 Loksabha elections before

2014, the exit polls produced worst results. The public image about the opinion and exit

polls are build up more on the basis of Loksabha elections because during Loksabha

elections the electorate of the whole country get involved in the election process at the

same period and every voters have eye on the any development about the elections and

exit polls and opinion polls are among them. In state elections exit polls results show that

out of 21 elections exit polls 7 performed very good and 9 are in good category. 4

assembly elections exit polls predictions were worst and 1 election was bad for exit polls.

The analysis of assembly elections exit polls give positive picture about the exit polls in

India. Question is after the success of 2014 Loksabha general election exit polls, public

image will change? “The prospects of Opinion poll and Exit poll are bright in a

democratic country like India due to regular elections. Most of the polls were correct in

making the assessment in Loksabha general election 2014”.said Mr. Sanjay Kumar,

Director, CSDS42

4.5 TELEVISION AS A MEDIUM OF POPULARIZING SURVEYS

Elections surveys in India is more than 60 years old, but survey conducted to measure the

voting behaviour of Indians and quantifying their political opinion and attitudes have

become very popular in India in recent times. The popularity of opinion polls started in

the 1980s when Dr. Pranoy Roy started conducting opinion polls during elections to find

out the mood of the India voters. The attempt by Dr. Roy was to make opinion polls a

scientific way of studying elections with number crunching and seat predictions. In 1989,

CHAPTER 4


Dr. Roy in collaboration with the marketing and research group conducted an exit poll

when 77,000 voters were interviewed after casting their votes. The poll predicted the

victory of congress and it was more or less accurate and elections results later on

confirmed the accuracy of the poll. „Vote swing‟ calculated on the basis of gain or loss of

vote share compared to the last elections by political parties became a very popular word

and Dr. Roy became a household name among television viewers in India. The initiative

taken by Dr. Roy was picked up, and the media and opinion polling hit the growth

trajectory in the 1990s aided by proliferation of electronic media in the corresponding

period. Election surveys and exit polls for measuring voter‟s opinion and behaviour

became quite popular in the country.43

Many factors contributed to the growing

popularity of election surveys in India in the 1990s, but it expanded very fast due to

mainly three factors: (a) it created a curiosity among the voters as well as political parties

to know about the party which would win the elections and how many seats major

political parties would win in the election before the actual election took place; (b) for

political parties pre-poll surveys provided them information about the electoral behaviour

of the various sections of the voters and their political choices; (c) for media it provided

them immense data on the voting behaviour and attitudes of the voters and helped them

in analyzing the election and making seat forecast more comprehensively and in a

detailed manner. The inquisitiveness of media in knowing the elections results

beforehand made electoral studies with elections forecasting and seat prediction during

elections quite prevalent and popular.44

The emergence of 24 hours news channels during

the end of 1990s and in the beginning of the 21st century witnessed further growth of the

opinion poll industry in India and media started engaging various market research

organizations to conduct polls during the elections. We invariably find expert panels on

television during the elections each time making in-depth analysis of poll results citing a

host of factors like anti-incumbency, multiplicity of parties and changing alliances et al.

for inaccurate predictions.

Apart from market research agencies like AC Nielson and ORG-Marg, new organizations

like the Centre for Media Studies, Development and Research Services, C-Voter also

entered this industry of opinion polls and exit polls to analyze the voting behaviour of the

Indian electorates. Exit polls became the buzzword and election forecasting and

CHAPTER 4


predicting the number of seats that party combinations are likely to win in the national

and state level elections became a regular feature during this decade. Among print media,

India today published the first poll in 1989 and since then it had been continuously

conducting opinion polls of every major election and making elections forecasts. In the

last two general elections of 2004 and 2009, almost all the prominent news channels in

association with print media used market research agencies and other polling agencies for

conducting elections polls. Based on the survey data and using the expertise of pollsters

and psephologists, seat predictions were made which were completely off the mark in

2004 and if not accurate showed the results in the right direction in 2009.45

The industry of opinion and exit polls have flourished during last one and half decade.

The large number of surveys conducted among the Indian electorates during last one

decade is a testimony to industry in the country. The last three general elections held in

the year 2004, 2009 and 2014 shows a fierce competition in the Indian media for

conducting pre-poll surveys and exit polls. Infact the opinion polls and exit polls results

give byline/title to the print and electronic media as headlines. There is no doubt that

news television in India is now clearly shaping the voter attitudes. After emergence of

television news channels the television has reached from metro to urban, then semi-urban

and now in rural areas. The capacity of news television to shape the voter attitudes have

been expanded due to extension of television in rural areas and as we know that majority

of our voters live in rural part of India.

The findings of the CNN-IBN-THE Hindu Election Tracker Survey, conducted by the

CSDS showed that 42 per cent voters accessing television every day, TV is, by far, the

most preferred medium for information on news and current affairs. The survey was

based on interviews with close to 20,000 respondents spread across 267 constituencies in

18 States. While 42 per cent watched TV news daily, 29 per cent respondents said they

read newspapers every day. Twelve per cent listened to radio, while 5 per cent accessed

the Internet. Sixty-six per cent of those interviewed said they never went online for news,

while 44 per cent did not use radio for news at all. Sixty per cent of voters have

moderate-to-high media exposure. This was based on an index, which measured how

regularly voters accessed the four mediums, radio, Internet, TV and print. North Indian

CHAPTER 4


States, according to the survey, had the highest exposure to different media forms, while

east India ranked the lowest.46

4.6 GROWING DEMAND TO DISCONTINUE WITH POLL SURVEYS

The widespread perception about the opinion polls surveys is that the forecasts might

influence voters, especially the undecided. This is one of the major reasons, the objection

arises to poll forecasts. People also feel that some of the surveys, if not all, are not

objective because they are sponsored by the interested parties. According to Ajay Singh

of Governance Now, a news magazine, “Yes, this is fact. Can‟t say for every pollsters.

But I know the pollsters who changed the percentage in favour of particular party. But

what I think in the basis of my journalistic experience despite of many pros and cons that

poll surveys should be continued.”47

Senior Journalist Shankar Arnimesh of Focus News

Channel mentioned an incident of how the surveys results were affected by the political

parties “...during 2004 Loksabha General elections a media adviser of the senior leader of

BJP told the poll agency that increased the seats of BJP from 240 to 272. Generally the

poll agents do all exercise in a close room. There are few who go to the voters and take

their opinion. Opinion polls are impactful on floating votes and definetly it works.”48

Since there are more misses than hits for the Indian pollsters and the surveys are neither

uniform any infallible. However, interest in opinion poll or exit poll surveys revives

before every impending election. Opinion polls offering predictions are widely

publicized, people question whether they affect the final outcome by having either a

„bandwagon‟ effect (encouraging voters to vote for the winning side) or and „underdog

effect‟(evoking sympathy and support for the apparent loser which increase his votes).

Infact the evidence that either phenomenon occurs is negligible. If anything, experience

suggests that underdog sympathy is more likely. Poll may cause some voters to turn

against the party shown as leading in the opinion polls because they dislike the prospect

of any party winning by an excessive margin.49

Exit polls, presumably more credible, are not free from errors. The investigators

complain that they are not allowed to stand near the exit gates. However the cultural

CHAPTER 4


diversity; illiteracy and the heterogeneous character of the electorate were sometimes

responsible for contradictions in poll predictions as is generally believed but the real

reason appears to be the existence of a plethora of political parties and fragmentation of

the electorate. This logic appears to be plausible as opinion polls in countries like the

U.S. and the U.K. fare better since they deal with just two or three parties. The dynamics

of urban-rural divide also plays a major role in upsetting calculations. While a fool proof

and transparent methodology needs to be adopted in surveys for ensuring objectivity and

accuracy, the apprehension that these predictions might influence voters appears to be

exaggerated. It is difficult to change the Indian voter; the so-called influence might at

best be marginal making no difference to the final result.

There are many reasons for the position that opinion and exit polls are bad for our

democracy. One, media-driven opinion polls and forecasts based on these are widely

noted by the public at large. Two, following from the first, these polls therefore influence

the process by which people make up their mind about who to vote for. Three, this

influence is either illegitimate, for most of the forecasts are not correct, or undesirable

anyway as it adversely affects the level-playing ground in politics. Not everyone makes

all the three arguments. And not every critic of the impact of opinion polls questions the

professional integrity of the pollsters.

The limitations of opinion poll-based elections studies and its criticism began in the

1970s. Academicians pointed out that election surveys held in the last two decades failed

to bring forward any expertise in understanding and explaining the voting behaviour of

the Indian electorate. The 1990s saw not only the growth of opinion polling industry on

elections but also more criticisms and limitations of survey research in measuring voting

behaviour in India. Apart from academic questions on the scope and relevance of election

surveys, the polling industry also got mired in public controversy and questioning. There

were allegations that findings of the elections surveys were tampered and used as potent

tool to swing the opinion of the voters for political gain. This led to public litigations to

curb polling on elections and putting restrictions on elections surveys. As a result of this

election commission took initiative to impose ban on poll surveys.50

CHAPTER 4


4.7 EXIT POLLS AND OPINION POLLS AND ELECTION COMMISSION OF

INDIA

The Election Commission of India took the step to ban the exit polls in 2009. The

commission is trying to ban elections survey since long as the commission think the

publishing of poll surveys will have the potential to influence the voters mind. As former

Chief Election Commissioner of India, S.Y. Quraishi is always in favour to ban the

opinion poll, “ Opinion poll may be paid. People say there is no significance difference

due to Opinion poll. What is the meaning of significant difference if one vote can be

affected by the wrong information. It is not fair with the process of election.”51

Various agencies conduct poll surveys prior to the poll on the likely voting pattern and

publish and disseminate the results of such surveys through different media. Similarly, on

the date of poll, actual result of the election is sought to be predicted on the basis of

information collected from the voters. Results of such surveys, called „Exit Poll‟, are

published and disseminated after the poll is over. In the case of an election, where poll is

taken on a single day, there cannot be any serious objection in publishing the results of

Exit Polls after the close of poll. However, in many general elections, poll has to be

staggered over different dates mainly for law and order and security related reasons. In

such cases, publishing the result of opinion poll on the earlier phases will have the

potential to influence the voting pattern in the subsequent phases. Similarly, the opinion

polls, which are conducted during the run-up to the poll, are also likely to influence the

minds of the electors. The Commission has been of the view that here should be some

restriction or regulation on the publishing / dissemination of the results of opinion polls

and exit polls. The Commission had issued some guidelines in this regard in 1998. This

was challenged in petitions before Courts and subsequently on the observation of the

Hon‟ble Supreme Court that the Commission did not have the power to enforce the

guidelines; the same were withdrawn by the Commission. The ECI had in April, 2004,

discussed the issue of Exit Polls and Opinion Polls with the recognized political parties.

The unanimous view expressed by the political parties at that meeting was that there

should be prohibition on publishing the results of Opinion Polls from the date of

notification of election, and that the Exit Polls should not be permitted till the poll is

CHAPTER 4


completed in all phases. After taking the views of political parties, on the proposal of the

commission the Government of India in 2009 amended the law in tune with the views

expressed by the political parties on exit polls. The amendment to the Representation of

the People Act, 1951 to prohibit conduct of Exit Polls is a follow up action on

recommendation of the political parties and the Commission. However, the amendment

addresses only one part of the recommendation relating to Exit Polls. The Commission

had reiterated the need to extend similar restrictions to Opinion Polls also, when the

Amendment Act of 2010, dealing with Exit Polls was passed by the Parliament.

The Commission is of the considered view, and reiterates its earlier recommendation, that

the conduct of Opinion Polls and dissemination of results of such polls should be

prohibited right from the day of the first notification of an election and till the completion

of poll in all the phases where a general election is held in different phases. Such a

restriction would be in the wider interests of free and fair elections as such Opinion Polls

often tend to cause prejudicial effect on the minds of electors.53

In November, 2013, after

getting fresh support from various political parties, the Election Commission has written

to the Ministry of Law and Justice for a ban on opinion polls from the date of notification

of elections. Majority of party supported ban on opinion polls except Bharatiya Janata

Party. Prominent parties which sought a ban or restriction on opinion polls ahead of

elections include Congress, CPI-M, BSP and NCP, besides SP, AIADMK, DMK, JD-U,

Shiv Sena and SAD. The TMC, DMDK, IUML and KJP have also favoured a ban/

restriction on polls during elections, saying it affects the voters. The BJP, however, says

there should be no ban as this would fall in the realm of a restriction on fundamental right

of freedom of speech and expression. A number of political parties have responded

positively to the EC proposal, with Congress leading the bandwagon in seeking a

complete ban or regulation on opinion polls during the election process.

However the pollsters are not in the favour of banning opinion poll. YogendraYadav, the

man who has come to be identified with opinion has raised concern against a ban. He said

“…Any attempt at banning opinion polls will simply open up a black-market of

information- opinion polls will still be conducted. They will be conducted because

politicians will need it, they will be conducted because parties desperately need it,

CHAPTER 4


newspapers,and media channels need it. They will be done but they will be brushed under

the carpet. That will make it much worse than what it it now.” YogendraYadav added,

“…there has to be a professional code of conduct for opinion polls. There should be strict

norms for disclosure. Disclosing who sponsored the survey, who paid for it, disclosing

what the sample size was, what was the technique through which the sample was

selected, what was the social profile of the sample, what was the raw vote share obtained

and how was that raw vote share converted into vote estimates and seat estimates. Once

these things are done, so much of the problem and loss of reputation of opinion polls will

be checked. You have to have a professional code of conduct and a regulatory body to

which you can appeal if professional norms are violated. So all we need is somebody like

Editors's Guild, NBA, Advertiser's Council- somebody needs to step in.”55

Currently in India opinion polls is banned 48 hours prior to voting. The ban on opinion

has been sought on the grounds that the polls confuse the voter, thereby affecting the

sanctity of the process. What is the provision regarding opinion polls in other parts of the

world, a look at other countries and poll surveys, In united states of America there is no

legal restrictions on either the publication of pre-election opinion polls or exit polls. And

in UK also no restrictions on the publication of pre-election surveys, although the

publication of exit polls taken before voting closes is prohibited by the Representation of

the People Act (Amendment), 2000. In Scandinavian countries there are no formal legal

restrictions against the publication of elect oral survey results during an election

campaign. In practice, however, no media organisation publishes poll results later than a

day before the election, and exit poll results are not published until all polling stations

have closed. In South Africa also no prohibition on the publication of electoral survey

results prior to an election. Exit polls, however, are banned by the 1998 Electoral Act. In

Bulgaria the law prohibits the publication of new electoral survey results at any point

during the last 14 days of the election campaign, and also on Election Day. In Italy a

prohibition on the publication of opinion polls begins 15 days before Election Day and

continues until the close of voting. In Russia the publication of any electoral survey

results for five days prior to Election Day and on Election Day itself. Australia has no

legal restrictions on the publication of either pre-election opinion polls or–with the

exception of Victoria–exit polls. Reportedly, the media rarely use exit polls due to

CHAPTER 4


experiences with erroneous results and the increased speed at which results are delivered.

In Canada Public opinion surveys assumed immense importance in the 1980s. It is now

prohibited to publish the results of opinion surveys that identify specific political parties

or candidates in the final three days before a poll closes.56

Despite opposition from the pollsters the election commission of India banned the exit

polls in elections in India, but not succeeded to ban on opinion polls, the proposal in this

regard is pending. Chief Election Commissioner V.S.Sampath on the question of

disappointment over not banning the opinion polls replied “ it‟s not a matter of

disappointment and repentance. We are doing our duty. What we should do we are doing,

it is lawmakers work to take decision on it.”57

4.8 CONCLUSION

Opinion polls seen to be an unavoidable evil in modern day elections. Millions of rupees

are spent to gauge the opinions of the electorate on varying issues before elections.

Whether people change their decision after knowing the findings of the pre-poll opinion

i.e. whether they follow the „bandwagon effect‟ or „underdog‟ effect not much serious

work seems to have been done in any of democracies under study. Though it is a matter

of serious concern but will it suit the opinion poll agencies to conduct such studies.

Do opinion polls play a decisive role in elections? Is their power in politics a reality, an

exaggeration or a myth? While no definition answers are in sight, politics over the years

has become a booming business. Polls can go wrong and have gone wrong a number of

times. Dr. Gallup who pioneered opinion polling who made a reputation in 1936 by

correctly predicting president Roosevelt‟s re-election his forecast had a large error than

the prediction he made later.

Dr.BhaskarRao, a leading pollster in India, a student of Dr. Gall up say emphatically “I

am a critic of the polls; opinion polls are supposed to help making an intelligent, a better

choice a better decision. That‟s looking beyond temporal things. But we have reduced

them to a commercial exercise.” The challenges in conducting election surveys in India

arise from a variety of reasons like the geographical span of the country, the highest

number of electorates in the world, the existing socio-cultural and demographic

CHAPTER 4


diversities, proliferation of political parties, the changing nature of party competition, and

the rapidly changing domain knowledge and technology for polling around the world.

Unlike countries in the western world, where the nature of the electorate is homogenous,

voters in India are highly heterogeneous with a wide range of diversity in terms of region,

and non-homogenous character of the Indian electorate poses a big challenge for studying

the opinion and attitudes of the voters with reasonable confidence. The poll surveys in

most democratic countries is not a very complex task as the electoral competition is

limited to two dominant parties based on the bi-party system. On the other hand,

independent India‟s experiment with electoral politics was based on the multiparty

system.58

However this is not the place to get into a detailed assessment of the accuracy or

otherwise of opinion polls in India, but let me just note that contrary to popular

impressions the overall record of Indian pollsters is not bad by international standards. Of

late we have seen some really bad forecasts, but these have been cases of poor

professionalism and not of political manipulation. By and large, most of the agencies and

media houses involved in this exercise have.

The analysis of 24 elections exit polls

results also show that the record of pollsters are not so bad but they need to improvise

their techniques so that the chances of errors can be minimized. Opinion polls have come

to stay in India and all things considered need not be banned; people sit glued to their TV

sets on the eve of every election curious to know who will be their chosen

representatives. It is imperative that Indian agencies conducting opinion polls constantly

innovate and improvise their research methodology for bridging the gap between

forecasts and actual results. Then alone opinion polls get better credibility and

acceptance.

CHAPTER 4


REFERENCES

1. Sanjay Kumar and Praveen Rai, Measuring Voting Behaviour in India, pp.15-16

2. David Butler, Ashok Lahiri, Prannoy Roy, India Decides,Elections 1952-1995,pp.

1

3. Ibid., pp.41



41

6. Ibid.

7. Ibid., pp.5

8. Ibid., pp. 39

9. Ibid.

10. Ibid.

11. Ibid.

12. Angus Campbell et.Al.eds, Elections and the Political Order, pp. 40-62


14. Ibid., pp.22

15. Ibid., pp.23


41

17. http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-opinion-and-exit-polls-cannot-have-the-

last-word-on-poll-outcome-1914797...

18. the pioneer, 16,MAY 2004

19. http://www.hindu.com/2009/05/14/stories/2009051457840100.htm/ Election

Commission Of India

20. http://www.india.com/election-2014/parties/aam-aadmi-party/lok-sabha-elections-

2014-exit-poll-results-19422/Election Commission of India

21. Wikipedia, Maharashtra Assembly Election, 2004

22. Wikipedia, Maharashtra Assembly Election, 2009

23. Indian express, 26 Feb, 2002

24. http://www.dancewithshadows.com/politics/up-exit-polls.asp

25. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uttar_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election,_201

2#Opinion_polls/ Election Commission Of India

26. Indian express, 26 Feb, 2002

27. http://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/chandigarh/4--exit-polls-give-an-edge-to-

congress-in-punjab/article1-820349.aspx/ELECTION

28. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2011#Post-

poll_surveys/ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA

29. http://electionaffairs.com/karnataka/assembly_elections_2013/exit_poll_karnatak

a_assembly_elections_2013.php

30. Exit polls results: Bihar election 2010, 20th Nov, 2010,

31. Ibn politicsa website, 23 Dec, 2007

32. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-12-

17/news/35868737_1_vote-share-polls-on-television-channels-seats/Election

Commission of India

CHAPTER 4


33. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Nadu_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2006#

Exit_polls

34. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Nadu_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2011#

Post-poll_surveys

35. http://electionaffairs.com/West%20Bengal/assembly_elections_2011/Exit_Poll_re

sults_West%20Bengal_Assembly_Elections_2011.html/Election Commission

36. http://electionaffairs.com/uttarakhand/state_assembly_elections_2012/exit_poll_r

esults_uttarakhand_Assembly_Elections_2012.html/ECI

37. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-12-

17/news/35868737_1_vote-share-polls-on-television-channels-seats/Election

Commission Of India

38. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Assembly-elections-Exit-polls-point-to-

Congress-rout-in-four-states-vary-wildly-on-Delhi/articleshow/26869114.cms



40. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Assembly-elections-Exit-polls



42. Interview with Mr. Sanjay Kumar, Director, CSDS


44. Ibid.

45. Ibid., pp.26

46. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/for-news-most-indian-voters-turn-

totv/article4964056.ece---Article written by PrashantJha.

47. interview with Ajay Singh, editor, governance now magazine...

48. interview with Shankar arnimesh, senior journalist with focus news


41-42

50. Sanjay Kumar and Praveen Rai, Measuring Voting Behaviour in India, pp.143

51. interview with S.Y.Quraishi, Former Chief Election Commissioner of India

52. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/PROPOSED_ELECTORAL_REFORMS.pdf...

53. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/recent/Exit_Polls.pdf.

54. http://newindianexpress.com/nation/EC-Ban-opinion-polls-from-notification-

day/2013/11/15/article1892695.ece

55. http://ibnlive.in.com/news/professional-code-of-conduct-for-opinion-polls-

necessary-aap/432252-80.html

56. http://www.indianexpress.com/news/opinion-polls/1175751/

57. Chief Election Commissioner V.S.Sampath, Interview by researcher.

58. Sanjay Kumar and Praveen Rai, Measuring Voting Behaviour in India, pp.143

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Assembly-elections-Exit-polls-point-to-Congress-rout-in-four-states-vary-wildly-on-Delhi/articleshow/26869114.cms


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Assembly-elections-Exit-polls



http://ibnlive.in.com/news/professional-code-of-conduct-for-opinion-polls-necessary-aap/432252-80.html


http://www.indianexpress.com/news/opinion-polls/1175751/

THE PAID NEWS SYNDROME: IS IT

CUTTING INTO

THE ROOTS OF DEMOCRACY?

CHAPTER 5


THE PAID NEWS SYNDROME: IS IT CUTTING INTO THE ROOTS OF

DEMOCRACY

Paid news is a much hyped phenomenon nowdays. However before the 15 Loksabha

elections the trend for this was visible but in the 15th general election to the Loksabha in

2009, this disturbing trend was highlighted by the media that is payment of money by the

politicians to the media organization for their favorable coverage which is popularly

known as ‗paid news‘. Paid news or paid content are those articles in newspapers,

magazines and the electronic media, which indicate favorable conditions for the

institution that has paid for it. The news is much like an advertisement but without the ad

tag. This kind of news has been considered a serious malpractice since it deceives the

citizens, not letting them know that the news is, in fact, an advertisement. Secondly , the

payment modes usually violate tax laws and election spending laws. More seriously, it

has raised electoral concerns because the media has a direct influence on voters.

The Press Council of India(PCI) defines paid news as, “Any news or analysis appearing

in any media (Print and electronic) for a price in cash or kind as consideration.” For

democratic India, the media continuous to be acclaimed as the forth important pillars

after judiciary, parliament and bureaucratic set-up, but unfortunately a cancer in the form

of paid news has been diagnosed with the Indian media in the recent past. Millions of

rupees have been reportedly paid to media houses for paid news.1

Dileep Mandal, Senior Journalist who worked on Paid news opined that ― This is very

bad because it affect the freedom of people in democracy. It affects the right of people to

choose because of wrong information in the shape of news, which is basically paid.

Earlier it was on the Entertainment and Business pages of newspapers, now it is on

political page. News was manipulated through reporters in early phases but after paid

news the chain of reporter is no more in the scene. Now media houses directly talk to

political parties and leaders on rate cards. We can say that small scale industry is now

institutional because earlier reporter there now media organization itself.‖2

CHAPTER 5


5.1 PAID NEWS: PAST AND PRESENT

What we are talking about paid news, it is not new at all and it was there in 19th century

as the form of Cheque Book Journalism. Infact the nexus of managing the news is not

new phenomenon in India, but paid news is a new form. Mitrokhin papers- the writings

of a former KGB agent, who worked for several years closely as an agent of the USSR,

bring out shocking details of funding by the KGB: ‗According to KGB files, by 1973, it

had ten Indian newspapers on its payroll(which cannot be identified for legal reasons) as

well as a press agency under its control. During 1972 the KGB claimed to have planted

3,789 articles in Indian newspaper-probably more than in any other country in the non-

communist world. According to its files, the number fell to 2,760 in 1973 but rose to

4486 in 1974 and 5510 in 1975. The paid news phenomenon which has come into

prominence and public discourse in the recent years was made fully operational by a

foreign intelligence agency in the crucial period of Indian political history in the 1970s.3

Before the domination of Television in Mass Media there were many politicians who

don‘t bother about the media coverages. Many politicians said that they don‘t care media

and they can win without the media. The CM of Karnataka from 1972 to 1980 Devraj

Arsh use the word ‗invisible voter‘ to tease the media. He said that his voters are not

visible to media. Mr. Devraj proved this to win the Assembly election of 1978 with huge

margin. From LaluYadav to Kanshiram to Mayawati to Left leaders in West Bengal

proved their importance in politics despite ignorance of media. Before coming to the

National politics Lalu Yadav was not bother about managing media. But after taking the

charge of railway ministry he appointed an IAS officer unofficially to manage the media.

Before 2009 Loksabha election rail ministry increased the expenses on advertisement to

media around 50 crores.4

In 2003, Bennett Coleman and Co. Ltd started a‖ paid content‖

service called Medianet, which sent journalists to cover product launches or celebrity

related events for a fee. Its competitors pointed out that this practice blatantly violated

journalistic ethics, but the BCCL management claimed that it was acceptable given that

such ‗advertorials‘ appeared in the city-specific colour supplement on society trivia rather

than in the main newspaper itself. Medianet effectively institutionalized the phenomenon

of paid news, which involves paying newspapers and broadcasters for positive coverage.

CHAPTER 5


Disguised as news, it is more effective than simple advertising, as it misleads the reader

or viewer into thinking that the information or views being put out have been

independently obtained by the journalist.

The menace of paid news, which began on a small scale in the elections in 2004, assumed

frightening proportions in the elections in 2009, though it is still talked about somewhat

in muted tones. Rate cards or packages were given on plain sheets of paper that listed

rates for publications of editorial content that praised a particular candidate or criticized

his or her political opponents. Candidates who refused to comply with these conditions

were denied coverage. In its non-institutionalised forms, these practices are extremely

difficult to prove because the financial transactions occur without any official record.

News terminologies have been coined: ‗paid news‘, ‗news packages‘ and ‗private

treaties‘. Effectively by these terms, the distinction between advertisement and news is

sought to be blurred.5

Dilip Mandal in his book ‗Media ka Underworld‘ explained the reasons why cases of

paid news were emphatically emerged in year 2009. The nature of media in the year 2009

were following---

1. It was the year of global crisis to go, Indian media was also affected by it. The

relief package from the government was also continue in this year.

2. It was election year. UPA government was free from left and its ideology

pressure.

3. Year 2009 was the year of election and during election a lot of money was spend.

Before this the expense of elections commission on general elections was 1300

crore. An estimated expense of between 10 thousands to 50 thousands crore from

candidates and parties spent.

4. A big percent of above mentioned amount went to media houses. An estimated

one-fifth of the total estimated amount.

5. First time from media organizations representative approached candidates and

parties with coverage rate cards and paid news was discussed.6

CHAPTER 5


Money power of politicians clearly enables them to acquire media power during

elections. Likewise, the propaganda power of media barons enables them to control or

acquire political power-both financially rewarding exercises. In one way, the media is

leading the charge in keeping the aam aadmi, who is much poorer than the elected

representatives, out of the electoral process.

The wealth of 543 MPs of the 15th

loksabha are worth close to 28 billion and the 64 union

cabinet members from the LokSabha account for 5 billion. About two-thirds of MLAs in

Maharastra and three fourths in Haryana are millionaires. The links between wealth and

winning elections are thus firmer than ever before. P.Sainathha ―The average worth of a

loksabha MP is Rs. 1 million. But there are 74 MPs with serious criminal charges against

them whose wealth averages 60 million. That is average wealth of a cabinet minister is

around 75 million.7

In India Paid news phenomenon is widely prevalent in almost all states in the country,

except perhaps the two southern states of Tamilnadu and Kerala. And these two states

have not been afflicted by this cancer only bcoz the media is sharply divided in their

allegiance to the major political parties in the state.

The media has written so much about black money but herein the media itself is

becoming a party to such transactions. For a few honorable exceptions such as P. Sainath,

Prabhash Joshi and a few working journalists unions, the subject had remained from

public gaze till recently. Finally, the press council of India appointed a committee

comprising Pranjoy Guha Thakurta and K Sreenivas Reddy to go into the matter and

submit a report to the council. The PCI entrusted a subcommittee to write a report on paid

news. The report assembled circumstantial evidence and named leading newspapers that

had apparently received funds for publishing information, sought to be disguised as news,

in favour of particular individuals, including representatives of political parties who were

contesting elections. Owing to the influence of a powerful lobby of publishers in the

council, a highly watered-down version of the report was presented to the government.

However, the subcommittee‘s full report was leaked and is available on a number of

websites. Speaking in Indore on July 15, on the occasion of the 75th

birth anniversary of

the late Prabhash Joshi, the Vice-President Hamid Ansari observed that the Press

CHAPTER 5


Council‘s ―inability to go public with its report on paid news is a pointer to the problems

of self-regulation and the ‗culture of silence‘ in the entire industry when it comes to self-

criticism‖.

Leaders of the Opposition in the LokSabha Sushma Swaraj said that the paid news

phenomenon had started out as an aberration, went of to become a disease and is now an

epidemic. She said she was not directly approached by media companies but her

campaign managers were.

5.2 PAID NEWS UNDERMINING DEMOCRACY: PRESS COUNCIL REPORT

The Press Council of India report on paid news found that the phenomenon of ‗paid news'

goes beyond the corruption of individual journalists and media companies. It has become

pervasive, structured and highly organised and in the process, is undermining democracy

in India. The report titled ―Paid News: How corruption in the Indian media undermines

Indian democracy.‖ It marshals a vast amount of material on the issue and is a

compendium of media malpractice. It explicitly names newspapers and channels —

including some of the biggest groups in the country — seen as having indulged in the

―paid news‖ practice. The report speaks of the ―deception or fraud‖ that paid news entails

as having three levels:

First, ―the reader of the publication or the viewer of the television programme is deceived

into believing that what is essentially an advertisement is in fact, independently produced

news content.‖

Second, ―By not officially declaring the expenditure incurred on planting ―paid news‖

items, the candidate standing for election violates the Conduct of Election Rules, 1961,

which are meant to be enforced by the Election Commission of India under the

Representation of the People Act, 1951.‖

And third, ―by not accounting for the money received from candidates, the concerned

media company or its representatives are violating the provisions of the Companies Act,

1956 as well as the Income Tax Act, 1961, among other laws.‖

CHAPTER 5


The report also says that the paid news phenomenon appears to be less pervasive in

statessuch as Kerala or Tamil Nadu, where the media is clearly divided along political

lines.‖8

The former Chief Election Commissioner of India S Y Quraishi said that election

commission can‘t control paid news during elections. Qureshi opines that Press Council

of India should set guidelines for the media and however electronic media is out of PCI‘s

ambit. To fulfill this lacunae, a special body need to be formed to cover all media.

5.3 PAID NEWS IN PARLIAMENT

It is easy to understand the seriousness of the problem of Paid news with the fact that

issue is discussed in the Indian parliament. Speaking in the LokSabha on March 3, 2010,

the then Leader of the Opposition and senior BJP leader Shri L.K. Advani said election

campaigns should be publicly funded while expressing concern about the phenomenon of

―paid news‖ which he described as a ―very serious issue‖. He said publications and

television channels should be made to account for the revenue generated from ―paid

news‖. In the Rajya Sabha the then Union Minister of Information and Broadcasting

Ambika Soni stated: ―In recent months, however, there have been a number of media

reports that sections of the electronic and print media have received monetary

considerations for publishing or broadcasting news in favour of particular individuals or

organizations or corporate entities, what is essentially ‗advertisements‘ disguised as

‗news‘. This has been commonly referred to as the ‗paid news syndrome‘. ―This

phenomenon of ‗paid news‘ is therefore, a serious matter as it influences the functioning

of a free press. …Thus, there is no denying the fact that there is an urgent need to protect

the right of citizens to correct and unbiased information. It is important that all sections of

society should introspect on this issue as it has wide-ranging implications for our

democratic structure.‖9

Leaders from all parties have raised concert to this serivous problem. Leader of CPM

ShriYechuri stated that ―paid news‖ was ―not merely a serious matter influencing the

functioning of a free press, but it is an issue that also concerns the future of parliamentary

democracy in India‖. He also reasoned how it is disorting the parliamentary democracy in

CHAPTER 5


multiple ways: (the) media ceases to be objective and, therefore, distorts public

perception; it distorts the electoral political choices of the people by providing undue

advantage to those candidates/political parties who are able to afford these packages, it

manipulates democracy, negating it completely by denying or by not providing equal

access to those who cannot afford to indulge in such malpractices thereby breaching the

provisions of the Constitution of India. Shri Arun Jaitley stated: ―… I completely share

the spirit and substance of what my friend, ShriYechury, said. I only disagree with him

partly on his suggestion of possible solutions. The menace has assumed such large

proportions that a solution cannot be to just deny them government advertisements. I

have read the statement of the Hon‘ble Minister, which is actually based on two premises

– first, that this constitutes free speech; second, that the Press Council of India, which I

would state is a toothless wonder, is already looking into the matter. And, therefore, both

these premises, that the Press Council of India is capable of finding a solution to this, and

that this is an expression of free speech, are fundamentally erroneous. If you look at the

menace of money power in elections over the last few years, it has grown

disproportionately. It is directly linked to the collection of funds for elections by

candidates and political parties and by state governments. This leads to increase of

political corruption. It pollutes the very stream of administration and public life in this

country. The volumes have grown.10

The standing committee of parliament has documented the trend of ‗paid news‘ in its

various forms and recommended content regulation by an empowered mechanism. The

committee also criticized the ministry of information and broadcasting for ―failing to

discharge its responsibility‖. The committee on information technology began examining

the issue of ‗paid news‘ in 2010. Three years later, it has concluded that the ―dangerous

trend of presenting information as paid news content‖ has spread at a remarkable pace in

sections of the media. ‗Paid news‘ has had a ―serious and damaging impact‖ on innocent

audiences; undermines democratic practices; affects markets, industry and health; is a tax

fraud; and a question of ethics.

In its most controversial remarks, the committee had dismissed self-regulations as an

eyewash, and recommended that a statutory body such as the Media Council be set up to

CHAPTER 5


look at ―media contents in both print and electronic media‖ with powers to take ―strong

actions‖. Alternatively, the press council could be revamped in case of print journalism

and a separate statutory body be set for the electronic media. It called for strengthening

election laws and empowering the Election Commission and asked the I$B Ministry to

act swiftly on issues of cross-media ownership. The committee found the existing

regulatory set-up dealing with paid news as inadequate. The committee recommended

establishment of either a single regulatory body for both print and electronic media or

enhancing punitive powers of the PCI and setting-up a similar statutory body for the

electronic media. Such regulators should have the power to take strong action against

offenders and should not include media owners/interested parties as members.

The committee recommended that the ECI should have the authority to take punitive

action against electoral candidates in cases of paid news. It endorsed the ECI‘s proposal

amendment to the RP act and urged the government to provide the ECI with more powers

to deal with paid news.

5.4 ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA AND PAID NEWS

To conduct free and fair elections is the main goal of Election Commission of India. But

practice of paid news is somewhere cutting the roots of our democracy. To

institutionalize paid news in print and electronic media to influence public opinion

especially during the elections is not a good trend. The phenomenon of paid news is seen

during the election time more. During this time the role of election commission is very

important to curb this menace. It is important here to see what election commission have

done to check paid news. First of all the election commission has decided to go by the

definition of Press Council of India as any news or analysis appearing in any media for a

price in cash or kind as consideration.11

The practice of paid news has to be seen as an attempt to circumvent the provisions of

Sections 77 and 123 (6) of R.P. Act 1951 which prescribe accounting and ceiling of

election expenses and make exceeding such prescribed limits a corrupt practice in

elections. Election commission invited the attention of state chief electoral officers on

recent phenomenon of ‗Paid News‘. Several political parties and media groups have also

CHAPTER 5


conveyed their similar concerns to the Commission. There has been dialogue of several

stakeholders with the Commission at different platforms and there is near unanimity to

take necessary steps to put a halt to such mal-practice which puts undue influence on the

free will of the voters, encourages the role of money power in a covert manner and

disturbs level playing field in elections.

The Commission has directed that maximum vigilance may be observed by making use

of the existing provisions of law so that the incidence of ‗Paid News‘ or surrogate

advertisements in Print and Electronic media in the context of elections is arrested. The

cases of ‗Paid News‘ generally manifest in the forms of news articles/reports published

about a particular candidate or a party eulogising them, or similar news articles/reports

denigrating the opponents, both intended at unduly influencing the voters. The same or

similar type of news articles/ reportings (with cosmetic modifications) appearing in more

than one newspaper periodical would amount to further corroboration as circumstantial

evidence that such news publication could result from collusion of the candidate/party

with the editors, publishers, financers of the newspaper etc. Such collusion would,

however, have generally no transactional evidence of payment of consideration in

cash or kind.12

Apart from taking measures to stop paid news the election commission of India created a

in-house division to tackle paid news, money power. The ECI now has a very senior

Income Tax Department official heading its poll expenditure monitoring wing to check

the practice of ‗paid news' and other abuses of money power in elections.13

The election

commission has proposed to amendment of law to make `paid news‘ an electoral

offence….commission has been proposed amendment in the Representation of People

Act, 1951, to provide therein that publishing and abetting the publishing of `paid news‘

for furthering the prospect of election of any candidate or for prejudicially affecting the

prospect of election of any candidate be made an electoral offence under chapter-III of

Part-VII of Representation of People Act,1951 with punishment of a minimum of two

years imprisonment.14

CHAPTER 5


The commission has take many Measures to check ‗Paid News‘ during elections i.e.

advertisement in garb of news in Media and related matters. After 2008 Commission

issued further guidelines to constitute Media Certification and Monitoring Committee

(MCMC) in each district during election period to take up the additional task of keeping a

check on the cases of Paid News.15

The Election Commission of India through its different initiatives have took serious note

of Paid news cases during elections. Few politicians are also facing the charges of giving

wrong information about their expenditure details to the commission. Among them the

case of Congress senior leader and former Maharashtra CM Ashok Chavan is much

publicized. The Election Commission of India has found him guilty in a case related to

his assembly election in 2009. After finding him guilty the commission had sent him

notice, which was stayed by High Court now. The finding of the commission, which

formed the basis of the showcause notice could pave the way for his disqualification as

an MP and bar him from contesting poll for thress years. It will be interesting to see what

the final outcome will be in this case but whatever the decision it is clear that serious note

from ECI to this is definetly helpful to curb the money use in elections and ‗paid news‘.

5.5 MENACE OF PAID NEWS-WHO WILL BELL THE CAT?

According to Dilip Mandal, Senior Journalist and writer of a book ‗Media ka

Underworld‘ on ‗Paid news‘ is not very optimistic about to stop this menace. He said ―it

can‘t be stopped but a something and small can be done. How can you say that some

particular story is Paid news. It is very tough to stop this. But the people and

organizations who are indulge in Paid news should be given less importance. If they will

lose the faith of readers and viewers then paid news will not exist.‖16

Question here is to

curb the paid news, who will bell the cat? In spite of huge support across society and

across the polity nothing much seems to have been done about ending the menace of paid

news, the reasons need to be seen in the mindset of the vested interests — the media

beneficiaries of the racket and the political players in the electoral field who place a high

value on propagandistic support in India's burgeoning mass media. This nexus needs to

be broken. At the same time, it must be realised that government intervention is likely to

do more harm than good in respect of media functioning. Pushing for effective self-

CHAPTER 5


regulation and publicly shaming the corrupt elements is the way to go — without losing

more time

The PCI report explores several ways to curb the menace of ―paid news‖. It seeks a far

more pro-active role from the Election Commission for instance. The report also calls for

giving regulatory bodies like the Press Council more teeth. It further appeals to media

organisations to adopt a number of principles that would curb ―paid news‖. However, it

recognises that self-regulation and civil society oversight, while welcome and useful, can

tackle the problem ―only to an extent‖. There would have to be effective use of existing

laws to ―apprehend those indulging in practices that are tantamount to committing a fraud

on the public‖.17

Senior Journalist with India T.V. Shamsher Singh gave practical views on paid news and

media ― There was a time when people used to accept reporting in media at its face value.

Now there is a general complain „Sab Beeke Hue Hain‟. Journalists who were earlier

respected are now viewed with disdain. And media houses are themselves responsible for

it. And if they want to redeem themselves and get back the lost glory then this practice of

paid news has to stop immediately.‖18

There is a need to have uniform regulations and guidelines for public and private as well

as print and electronic media to ensure a level playing field for all parties and candidates

during campaigning. A single initiative or measure cannot improve the situation. A

combination of efforts is required to install a system of ―checks and balances‖. This

includes self-regulation by the media itself and guidelines from professional bodies such

as academics, independent researchers, civil society groups and regulatory agencies like

the Press Council of India, the Information Commission, the Election Commission of

India and the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI).

CHAPTER 5


REFERENCES

1. Ashutosh Nandi, Cuttack, 24 Oct,2010, The times of India.

2. interview with Dileep Mandal, senior journalist and writer of the book ‗Media ka

Underworld‘ during June, 2011

3. Madhav Godbole, India‘s parliamentary democracy on trial, pp.258

4. Dilleep Mandal, ‗Media ka underworld‘, pp. 42

5. Madhav Godbole, India‘s parliamentary democracy on trial. 271

6. Ibid.

7. Hindu Newspaper, June 20, 2009.

8. Pci report retrived from http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/sainath/paid-

news-undermining-democracy-press-council-report/article407201.ece

9. http://www.newswatch.in/paid-news/%E2%80%9Cpaid-news%E2%80%9D-in-

parliament


parliament

11. instructions on election expenditure monitoring-march 2013, eci page-16

12. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/CurrentElections/ECI_Instructions/ins15062010.pdf

13. hindu, October 8, 2010. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/new-eci-

division-to-tackle-paid-news-money-power/article818518.ece

14. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/electoral_ref.pdf

15. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/CurrentElections/ECI_Instructions/PaidNewsGuidelines

27082012.pdf

16. interview with Dilip Mandal, senior journalist and the writer of the book ‗Media

ke Underworld‘ in 2011

17. http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/sainath/paid-news-undermining-

democracy-press-council-report/article407201.ece

18. interview with Shamsher Singh, Senior Journalist, India Television

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/sainath/paid-news-undermining-democracy-press-council-report/article407201.ece


http://www.newswatch.in/paid-news/%E2%80%9Cpaid-news%E2%80%9D-in-parliament




http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/CurrentElections/ECI_Instructions/PaidNewsGuidelines27082012.pdf




RISE OF NEWS CHANNEL AND

ELECTIONS

CHAPTER 6


RISE OF NEWS CHANNEL AND ELECTIONS

The increasing influence of news channels in India was energized by economic

liberalization in early 1990s. It gave citizen access to news channels first in urban and

semi-urban areas and then from urban to rural areas. Infact not only the news channel, the

whole electronic media was stimulated by the post liberalization era. The rise of 24 hours

news channels gave citizen access to different sources as opposed to the sole government

regulated news channel of the pre-liberalization era.

In India and other post-colonial countries television often becomes the "compelling

medium for influencing a normative national consciousness of language, image and

sound, television reproduces a vision of the world for its audiences. These productions

link television with the political economy of nation building. The medium can work to

socialize people, foment material desires, and normalize consumer relations"(Ives, 2007,

p. 154). The broadcast media under state monopoly helped to tentatively bridge the gap

between a literate elite and the mass audience, to which print media, had formerly

catered. The emergence of the cable satellite television helped to narrow the gap between

literate elite and others, even further as it brought " market forces and the power of

television together by 1992".1

Satellite television news networks have never expanded as

they have in India. In less than a decade, between 1998 and 2006 India has experienced

the rise of more than 50 twenty-four hours satellite news channels. They are a prominent

part of a vibrant satellite television industry, comprising of more than 300 channels, that

has targeted Indian homes since the early 1990s.2

The numbers signify a much larger story. The rise of satellite television, and satellite

news networks, has engendered a transformation in India's political culture, the nature of

the state and expression of Indian nationhood. Much like India's 'newspaper revolution'

that started in the 1970s , and the 'cassette culture' of the 1980s, the availability of

privately procured satellite television has meant that people discovered new ways to think

about themselves and to participate in the politics that would have been unthinkable a

generation before.3

CHAPTER 6


6.1 EMERGENCE OF TELEVISION NEWS CHANNEL IN INDIA

The historiography of Indian television can be divided into the pre and post satellite

period. The story of the pre-satellite period is fairly simple: television was a cultural and

political instrument of the state, simultaneously implicit in the creation of a consumerist

middle class. Its various manifestations have found able chroniclers-from former

broadcasters to critical scholars like Purnima Mankekar and Arvind Rajagopal.

Mankekar's ethnographic and textual work for example, sketched he state attempted to

use television to create 'modern' nation and reinforce notions of the family and

womanhood, while also underlining television's close linkages with the creation of a

middle Class.4

Television was consciously turned into a mass medium in the 1980s as a

political/developmental strategy, kick started partly by the need to package it as India's

show-window on the international stage during the 1982 Asian Games in New Delhi.

Though the Doordarshan was an agent of the socialist state, it simultaneously

accommodated the steady growth of Indian capitalism, gradually turning commercial

from the late 1970s onwards with the introduction of advertising. The development of a

national television network in the 1980s, accompanied with television advertising,

augmented the creation of new consumer class and this formed the basis for a new notion

of collectively expressed as the middle class. Yet this makeover of Doordarshan and its

co-option by the forces of capitalism happened in strictly controlled conditions. News

programming remained a zealously guarded sanctum sanctorum, even though a great deal

of programming in genres like entertainment was farmed out to sponsors and private

producers. All programming, however, was subject to strict bureaucratic and political

control.5

Television first came to India by accident, not by planning. When the multinational

philips left behind some television equipment as a gift after an exhibition in New Delhi,

All India Radio used it to put together the first broadcast in September 1959, run by

professionals who were simply experimenting with the new equipment, the initial

broadcasts consisted of two one-hour transmissions a week. They were watched by

'telecubs' organised around the 21 gifted television sets that were installed within a 25-km

CHAPTER 6


radius in Delhi. UNESCO chipped in with a gift of 50 television sets and the Ford

foundation helped fund the first formal educational teleccasts for 250 schools around

Delhi on selected days of the week. The initial broadcasts reveal the motivations of the

programmers and their controllers: they were restricted only to four subjects- road sense,

food adulteration, care of public property and manners. It took another six years for a

regular daily one-hour service to appear. This began in 1965 with help from the West

German governments: transmissions consisted of news bulletins in hindi and agricultural

programmes for farmers. Regular news bulletins in english were introduced in 1971.

Television continued to be run as an of All India Radio until 1976.

India's television encounter of the 1960s remained a developmental exercise and a

curiosity restricted only to a few bureaucrats, politicians and a few select localities in

Delhi. For the rest of India, television simply did not exist. The lone transmission from

Delhi operated on a weak signal and the state did not allow any infrastructure for the

development of the industry. When Nehru died in 1964, the country had a grand total of

58 licensed TV sets. The first Indian television factory opened only in 1969 in Kanpur,

and in indication of the minuscule size of the existing market, produced 1250 sets in first

year of manufacture.7

Till the early 1990s, television viewers in India could only watch programmes broadcast

by the state-owned Doordarshan (now part of the Prasar Bharati Corporation). Barely a

decade later, they have access to hundreds of television channels from all over the world,

most of them privately owned. In 1995, barely 20 million television set owning

households in the country had cable and satellite connections. This number has since

gone up five-fold to around 100 million households.

The first India-based private television channel to enter the news space, Zee News, began

operations somewhat tentatively in 1994. At present, India is the only country in the

world with over four dozen 24-hour television channels that broadcast news and current

affairs programmes in over a dozen languages, including nearly 20 channels in the most

widely spoken language: Hindi.

CHAPTER 6


6.2. MEDIA COVERAGES OF THE ELECTIONS THROUGH THE AGES AND

HEIGHTENED ROLE NOW

Indira Gandhi's ascent to power in 1966 marked a change in the state's relationships with

television. Most studies of this period agree that, for a variety of reasons, Indira Gandhi

understood the potential of television as a mass medium far more than any of her political

contemporaries. In this context, Sevanti Ninan has noted an old joke about India's first

three prime ministers: ' Nehru was a visionary, Lal Bahadur Shashtri a revisionary and

Indira gandhi a televisionary'. Indira Gandhi kickstarted the process that turned television

into a mass medium. She separated television from radio, initiated the indigenous indian

satellite programme that was to become the backbone of the national television network,

allowed the entry of colours television- with incentives for television manufacture-and

introduced television advertising.

The policy changes were based on two reasons: faith in developmental communication

and her discovery of television as a political tool. As one critic wrote just after the

emergency, 'Mrs Gandhi didn't givt it much importance... until she discovered what a

powerful weapon it could be both for offence and defence'. Indira gandhi's policies bear

this out. As she turned Nehru's lofty but flawed ideal of centralised planning into dogma,

inserting socialism into the constitution and unleashing a new brand of populist politics to

successfully break the power of the congress hierarchy, she saw the potential for using

television as the state's visual messenger. In essence, this was based on what has been

called the hypodermic needle model, so dear to soviet style planners. Television was to

be the syringe that would deliver the required medicine into society, the assumption being

that it would be accepted unquestionably by every host. Of course, communication

studies from the 1970s onwards have shown that television reception works in much

more complex ways and that different people interpret the same messages differently

based on their individual circumstances, but this was not allow how the Indian state

understood television.As minister for information and broadcasting in 1964, Indira

Gandhi injected new energy into broadcasting and instituted the first official inquiry into

the state of Indian broadcasting. She was the prime minister by the time this inquiry, the

Chanda committee, recommended whole scale changes to the broadcasting structure and

CHAPTER 6


a rapid expansion of television, blaming insufficient funding of mass media for tthe

inadequate information, poor motivation and insufficient participation of the masses in

the country's development'.8

But it also questioned the government's stranglehold on the medium; prominent among

its 219 recommendations was one that called for the setting up of an autonomous national

television service. The demand for autonomy, however, was always resisted with the twin

arguments that national interest and the imperative of development necessitated control

over powerfull media like television.9

In practice, though, the state was indistinguishable

from the ruling party and the all india radio code, adopted in 1968, forbade criticism of

various entities, including any state government, political party and friendly countries.10

It was a governmental straitjacket that further reinforced the role of broadcasting as the

government's propaganda service. The expansion of television began in earnest only

during the emergency. Television had been restricted to the Delhi area until as late as

1972 when a TV transmitter was set up in Bombay, followed by strategic transmitters in

the border cities of Amritsar and Srinagar in 1973. This was a security measure in

response to Pakistan television, whose signals could be received in these border areas.

The Srinagar's station's broadcasts also covered parts of Kashmir under Pakistan control.

This was still nowhere near a national presence and the first semblance of a symbolic

India-wide network emerged only in the first year of the Emergency, with the setting up

of new stations in Lucknow, Madras and Calcutta in 1975. With severe censorship

imposed upon the print media, the Indira government saw broadcasting as a crucial tool

to direct public opinion. Her son Sanjay Gandhi, who did not have any official position in

the government, became a regular fixture on television. In 1977, in a celebrated case, the

Delhi station was ordered to screen the bollywood blockbuster Bobby to deter crowds

from attending an opposition rally. The rally still drew supporters and Indira Gandhi was

swept out of power but her political imperatives laid the foundation of a truly national

network.

At the height of the Emergency in 1976 three important things happened; television was

separated from All India Radio and put under a new entity called Doordarshan, though it

remained under the control of the ministry of information and broadcasting; the

CHAPTER 6


government reduced excise duties on television sets which encouraged local manufacture;

and for the first time advertising was allowed on television. All three measures spurred

television's expansion. The creation of Doordarshan meant the recognition of television

as a separate medium from radio and the easing duties led to a spurt in production of

television sets. From just one company producing 1250 sets in 1969 India had progressed

to 40 companies making a quarter of a million by 1977.11

Television became a mass medium in India only during the 1980s. Three factors

contributed to this : the creation of a national network of transmitters linked with satellite

technology; Doordarshan commercialisation and resultant focus on entertainment; and

economic reforms that made television sets cheaper. The Initial years Election

Campaigns in India after the independence involved print advertisements inviting the

voters, in a manner similar to inviting one to their wedding. The personal care taken by

each of the politicians is also evident from them apologising, on their inability to meet all

the people of the constituency.Congress in the initial years utilized the brand

‘Independence Struggle’ to their fullest advantage. This brand image was too difficult for

the competing parties to reckon with. In 1984 the elections battleground witnessed an

advertisement firm aiding one of the competing parties namely Congress. Most

advertisements were aimed at disparaging the opposition, rather than proclaiming their

role if elected. The factors like greed and lack of unity were highlighted to put the

competitors in bad light. The bad will against some party has played a major role in

electing the new government.

In the era of 24 hours news channel in India first time during election time people saw a

large scale implementation of advertising in 2004 general election. The BJP’s India

Shining campaign was all set to take the mass off their feet. The party or the NDA

government main objective was to expose the audience as much as possible to acquire

their mindshare. They were successful as everybody was talking about it. This campaign

would have succeeded if not for the counter campaign of Congress and a difference of

opinion emerged from the media. The Congress highlighted the flaws in their campaign

and emphasised that ‘aam aadmi’ was no better off than he was 5 years ago. This is an

example where lack of integrated marketing communication especially the

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communication from the media has led to the downfall of the party concerned. The

Congress with the help of Orchard advertising came up with a campaign that questioned

the BJP the basis of the campaign, highlighting the lack of progress in the critical mass.

The campaign aimed at capturing the mindshare of the public and for doing the same they

had to eliminate BJP. The lack of colours in the campaign and taglines like ‘Congress ka

haath aam aadmi ke saath’ reinforced the lack of feel good factor. Their campaign

promised the aam aadmi a better and brighter future. This being a very late retaliation,

BJP did not expect this to have great bearing on the election result and neither did the

media. The exit polls predicted a BJP win but the end result saw Congress as the runaway

winner.

The 2009 general elections was not devoid of the same. But the new side to the campaign

scenario in 2009 is the greater involvement of advertising agencies. With the increased

use of internet, mobile phone, television, the campaigning methodologies are also

changing. With the changing demography and increasing use of mobile phones and

internet, the means of reaching voters is getting modified drastically. Other electronic

mass medium or social media also got their place in the election campaigning apart from

television channels.

In 2009 Congress has been the early bird as it shortlisted India’s biggest advertising

agency, JWT, and a smaller Delhi-based firm with the experience of handling several

political accounts, including the BJP’s 2004 polls campaign, Crayon. The slogan “Aam

admi ke badte kadam, har kadam par Bharat bulund “targets the common man. The

emphasis they lay on common man is bound to sway the masses. The most recent of their

campaigns is the ‘Jai Ho’ advertisement. Their means of reaching the target audience has

been through the click of mouse by using of social networking sites like orkut, facebook

etc to drive traffic to the video on the youtube website. This is the means; the Congress

has adopted to connect with the youth of the country whose number has been constantly

increasing year after year. To counter the ‘Jai Ho’ campaign of Congress, BJP appointed

Simoes-Tag and Utopia to carry forward its ‘Majboot Neta Nirnayak Sarkar’ poll

campaign. When election results announced congress led UPA emerged with a majority

marks and BJP led NDA was distant runner-up.12

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6.3 SURVEY RESEARCH

The importance and impact of 'fourth estate' in any democracy is well-known. In Indian

democracy also since we experimented with the governance of this type, the media has

played an important role. In mass media there are many new components of

communication has been added in recent years. What media professionals, who also

happens to be voters, think about the role of media in present day and opinion poll

surveys in elections? To know the impact of mass media in elections among media

professionals in this research 400 media professionals surveyed by me of different age

group from print and electronic media. A set of 20 close-ended questions were asked to

all of them. The focus of the study and hypothesis of research is based on opinion poll

surveys in India, so many questions were related to opinion surveys.

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1. Do opinion polls have decisive role in election outcome? Out of 400 respondents,

35% said that opinion polls have decisive role in election outcome and 33% said

no. However 28 % were not fully agree with the statement and rest of 5 percent

were not in position to decide. In India questions have been raised on the opinion

polls outcome in predicting election results since long. The respondents reactions

suggests that a major part of respondents accept the role of opinion polls in

elections results but 60 percent are in the two group of rejecting the statement and

were not fully agree.

Figure 6.3.1: Respondents on Role of Opinion poll surveys

It means majority of respondents don’t see opinion polls in Indian elections as decisive

factor and it doesn’t affect the actual outcome of the election decisively.

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2. Do media play role in influencing views on opinion poll surveys, more than half

of the respondents said yes. 52 % said during elections media influence their

opinion and 35 said no. It is clear that in democracy and during elections media

play a major role in making the opinion.

Figure 6.3.2: Respondents on Media’s influence on opinion poll

52% 35%

10%

3%

DO MEDIA INFLUENCE YOUR VIEWS ON OPINION POLL SURVEYS DURING ELECTIONS?

A

B

C

D

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3. In comparison to western democracies, in Indian democracy the opinion polls

have not make their positive mark on the voters. Many reasons for this as our

democracy has different features. 40% media professionals said that in India

opinion poll surveys are successful and 28 said no. 20 percent were not fully

agree and 12 percent were not in position to say.

Fig 6.3.3 : Respondents on opinion poll surveys in India

Due to existence of plethora of political parties and fragmentation of electorate it

is very hard to capture the mood of the voters in any particular election. The

dynamics of urban-rural divide also plays a major role in upsetting calculations.

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4. Should opinion polls survey in India continued? Election commission of India has

already banned exit polls till the last phase of elections and also sent proposals to

ban opinion polls from the date of elections notification. But it is interesting that

despite of many failures of opinion poll surveys, respondents are not in favour of

banning it. 70 percent said it should be continued and 22.5 percent were in favour

of banning it. The reasons behind this answer may be many, but one is that in

India election is like festival and opinion polls survey results is one of the festive

character of it. The voters of India don't want to loose any character of democracy

festival.

Fig 6.3.4: Respondents on continuation of opinion polls

Media see opinion poll surveys results as a major news issue for newspapers and

news channels, so it is obvious that majority of respondents were in favour of

continuing with the surveys during elections.

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5. Opinion polls are affected by the biases of agency or groups who conduct polls?

Majority of respondents said yes. 75 percent said that polls survey results are

affected by the biases of agency. Critics of opinion polls also give these reasons to

prove their points, even general perception is developing towards opinion surveys

that surveys are leaned to particular party or alliance sometimes.

Figure 6.3.5: Respondents on Opinion polls biases

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6. Political parties who get positive results may get advantage through the survey

results. This type of effect on possible results is called the bandwagon effect.

Election Commission of India have also gave it as a reasons to ban opinion

surveys, commission has argued that due to surveys results the level playing

purpose of commission to conduct elections are dented.

Figure 6.3.6: Respondents on Bandwagon effect on Opinion poll

A majority of respondents feel that opinion polls surveys affect the opinion of

voters. Sixty-Six percent said yes and Twenty-One percent said no.

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7. Do opinion poll surveys need social researcher to conduct the surveys, on this

particular questions more than 90 percent media professionals yes. It means that

maximum respondents feel that social researcher can improve the quality of

surveys during elections and the outcome will be more accurate than now.

Figure 6.3.7 : Respondents on opinion polls and Its techniques

There is growing demand from the political experts also that opinion poll surveys

sample size should be scientific so that it can be able to predict the outcome close

to the actual results.

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8. Media organizations don't favour to ban opinion polls in elections. When question

was asked on media loving opinion polls, 92.5 percent respondents said yes.

Basically opinion polls provide more news item to the news channels. News

channels got lot of details through the survey results and they air programmes and

news items, which fulfill the time space of news channels and also a TRP getting

item during elections.

Figure 6.3.8 : Respondents on Media and Opinion polls

93%

3% 3% 1%

MEDIA LOVE OPINION POLLS? DO YOU AGREE?

A

B

C

D

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9. Do opinion polls play a fifth estate role in democracy during elections. Maximum

respondents said no. 55 percent said no and 17.5 percent were not fully agree.

Only 20 percent said in favour of the statement.

Fig 6.3.9: Respondents on opinion polls as a fifth estate

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10. Indian democracy has matured in last 65 years and media played an important

role in deepening the democracy. Do media should endorse political parties in

India like Britain, maximum media professionals were not in favour of this type

of role of media. More than 75 percent said no.

Fig 6.3.10: Respondents on media endorsing political parties

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11. However maximum respondents not in favour of endorsing political parties by

media, but more than 75 percent of them also not happy with the media during

elections campaign because majority of respondents think grassroot issues don't

get priority in media coverage during election time.

Fig 6.3.11: Media and issues in elections

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12. After emergence of news channels the interaction between voters and political

parties have increased. Eighty percent said during the era of 24 hours news

channel, the news channels enabled the voters of that category who were illiterate,

not able to read newspapers to know the policies and programmes of political

parties through their daily activities, through spokespersons.

Fig 6.3.12 : Respondents on Interactions between voters and poltical parties

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13. Media playing effective role during elections. Around Seventy-Five percent said

yes.

Fig 6.3.13: Respondents on effectiveness of Media

However a minority section of respondents don’t accept the effective role of media,

but it is clear that since independence and first general election to last one media have

played crucial role by informing people about the issues and other election related

materials.

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14. In 2009 general elections and in few assembly elections paid news emerged as a

threat for democracy. Even media professional also have a majority view that the

menace should be discontinued. More than Seventy-Five were in favour of

discontinuing with this.

Fig 6.3.14: Respondents on Paid news

Basically paid news is big threat to democracy in form of news. And it is time to

take call but question is can we able to get out from this menace?

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15. Television is still have to fully covered the rural part of India, so the news

channels.

Fig 6.3.15: Respondents on Media and Rural-Urban divide

Eighty percent of the respondents not happy with the role of media for rural areas

as they think that media is far more oriented to urban issues and rural issues are

not get priority in the news.

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16. Eighty-Five percent of respondents said media organizations have many types of

biases inside or outside the organizations.

Fig 6.3.16: Respondents on biases in Media

In covering news media professionals and media organizations pre-determined

with many type of biases.

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17. All media professional have work pressure during their daily activities. 88

percent of them said they work under pressure.

Fig 6.3.17: Respondents on work pressure in Media

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18. Also around the 85 percent of respondents said they also work under the pressure

of management.

Fig 6.3.18: Respondents on Management pressure in Media

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19. Media value the commercial concern more than the public concern. Seventy-

Five percent of respondents said media value the commercial concern more.

Fig 6.3.19: Respondents on Media Commercial Concern

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20. Media institutions not provide according to the time and demand of organization.

Institutions are more academic than practical knowledge. Around 70 percent said

on this statement.

Fig 6.3.20: Respondents on Media institutions

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6.4 RESULTS

Out of 20 close-ended questions nine questions were on directly related to role and

functioning of media, nine were related to opinion polls(Pre-poll and exit polls) surveys

and one related to new phenomenon in the mass media which is known as paid news and

one related to media educational institutions. The question is always raised on the opinion

and exit polls in India that it effect the election outcome. After the analysis of nine

questions related to opinion polls survey it shows that opinion polls in India is not

attained the maturity in conducting the polls. However on the success of opinion polls in

India opinion is fractured but majority of people want it to continue with this practice

during elections. This is despite the fact that majority of respondents accepted the

negative points of opinion polls like; opinion polls are affected by the biases of agencies

who conduct polls, opinion polls have bandwagon effect on the voters, and opinion polls

agencies need to improve their techniques and social researchers should be used in this

surveys. It is hard to say what is the basic reasons that despite of accepting some negative

points of surveys, why respondents want to continue with it. One of the main reason may

be that the majority don’t want to do away with the surveys because it adds colour during

the season of elections. Second reason may be that respondents want that by improving

the surveys techniques there will be scope of predicting election results right. It is

because of one reason or many that majority want polls surveys to continue but one of the

reason is also that Indian media love opinion polls.

The analysis of 10 questions directly related to role and functioning of media shows that

at present mass media is playing effective role in Indian democracy and during Indian

elections. The effectivenss of media during elections seen in the context that after the

emergence of news channels the political parties and voters came close through the mass

media. Analysis also show some learning lessons for Indian media on few front that

during elections rural and grassroot issues are not taken up, people’s concern are ignored

by the media for the sake of commercial. There is need to change the functioning of

media organizations in context of biasness, management pressure and work pressure. The

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recent years phenomenon in media, known as paid news is rejected by the majority of

respondents. Paid news is not only the threat to democracy but it is also threat to the

credibility of mass media. In recent years mass media study and institutions has

flourished after the news channels growth, but it is time to change the style of education

in these organizations because this medium need practical knowledge of media.

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REFERENCES

1. Arvind Rajagopal, Politics after television, p.7(2004)

2. Nalin Mehta, India on television, pp.1

3. Ibid, pp.2-3

4. Ibid, pp.8-9

5. Ibid, pp.26-27

6. Ibid, pp.29-30

7. Ibid, pp.30-31

8. Ibid, pp.33

9. Arvind Rajagopal, politics after television, pp.77

10. Chatterjee, Broadcasting in India, pp.104-105

11. Page and Crawley, Satellites over South Asia, New Delhi, pp. 56

12. http://iims-markathon.blogspot.com/2009/05/indian-election-campaigning.html

INTERPRETATIONS AND

CONCLUSIONS

CHAPTER 7


INTERPRETATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

India would not be able to describe itself as the world’s largest democracy without the

existence of an independent media. The mass media in India often reflects the diversity

and plurality of the country, especially when General Elections take place. Not once but

again and again in the history of Indian democracy mass media has proved its potential.

That’s why democracy has stood the test of times among all systems of governance. In

the any era of history information has been reckoned as power and it is assumed that

those who control the information control the destiny of any nations. Freedom of media is

necessary for any democracy to major its extent in the society. Election constitute an

important feature and function of democracy and it has been an issue of research and

concern in the last few decades that what role media play during election.

Allegations of caste politics, communal politics, partisan politics, criminalization of

politics and money and muscle power in politics- despite of all this the basic faith in

democracy has sustained in all sections of the society. Faith in democracy is inherent in

the voters of Indian democracy. It should be noted that in last General Election in 2014

and in many states Assemblies Elections during last few years the voter turnout has

increased in comparison to last one and many of states have recorded all time turnout.

The recently concluded General Elections recorded the all time voter turnout of more

than 66 percent after independence in any Loksabha Election.

Our democracy and politics have many negative side but our electorate always demands

transparency and accountability. However many winning factors work in favour of a

candidate, sometimes personalities and charisma also work in favour of party and

candidate. The word committed and loyal vote banks in Indian elections is eroding its

base. The recent Loksabha Election of 2014 has proved it with the fact that identity based

parties got defeated in their regions despite of their support base in particular community.

It is also clear with the recent election is that non-developmental issues will not favour

any party until the party has worked on the developmental front. Infact in the era of mass

media and 24 hours news channels also not take up the non-developmental issues which

do not appeal to the 21st century voters of India, among which youth has a good

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proportion. It’s a good sign for Indian democracy that country is heading towards right

path of politics. It’s a matter of research that which type of governments suits better to

our diverse country, but it is clear from the experience of 67 years of democracy in India

that Indian electorate do their best to select best among the existing parties and alliances.

After the dominance of Congress party for 30 years since the independence of our

country in 1947 till 1977, the era of coalitions began in India in 1977, despite the

experiment miserable, the country has witnessed coalition in 1989, 1996 and in 1998. The

BJP-led government in centre from 1999 to 2004, which was the first non-congress

government to fulfilled its term, was also an alliance of small parties. The UPA and

UPA-2 government at the centre were also the Cong-led alliances. But it is noticeable

that in recent past in different state assembly elections the trend of giving mandate to one

party has been seen, which is a good sign for Indian democracy. It is also noticeable that

in 2009, the UPA alliance went on seats sharing but Congress managed to get more than

200 seats, first time for any and only party since 1991. The 2014 Genteral Election broke

the record of last three decades, Bharatiya Janata Party on its own managed to get the

majority mark of 272. The party won 282 seats, first time since 1984 election, which was

happened after the murder of then prime minister Indira Gandhi, any party got clear

mandate in Loksabha. Noticeable point is that BJP-led NDA got more than 300 seats and

ruling party was only able to get 44 seats. After elections three party lost their status of

national party. In multiparty democracies like India there are many other reasons why the

concept of committed vote bank is eroding. The impact of brand loyal or identity politics

vote bank is decreasing due to record voter turnout in election, which has been

established from the recent years election results. Infact due to high voter turnout the

impact of identity politics bank is decreasing and the mass media has played an important

role in increasing voter turnout high.

Since the emergence of 24 hours news channel in India since last decade of last century

and first decade of 21st century the media played important role to connect the masses on

different issues, to their political leaders. The reach of television sets to new middle class

and rural part of the country helped to reach the voters who are not able to read. The

regionalization of newspapers were connecting the masses with their local issues since

long years. The increasing influence of electronic media stimulated it and the gave

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citizens access to numerous news sources as opposed to the sole government regulated

news channel of the pre–liberalization era.

Role of Mass media in Indian democracy has been the focal point of the researcher and

analysts for sometimes. The so-called dirty trick department of political parties have now

been replaced with highly educated professionals who specialize in communication

technology, media planning, strategy formulation and market research. The candidates

are packaged and sold in the market force as soaps and detergent, using fierce marketing

strategies. This all changes in the election management is due to liberalization of

economy and it affect on the Indian media. The growth of 24 hours news channels is also

the results of new economy and market. However the market force has involved some

undesirable and unwanted trend in the media and Indian democracy. Paid news is one of

them. Since 2009 General Election in India the word ‘paid news’ emerged as major threat

to democracy from the unholy alliance of politicians and few media organizations. It is

difficult to say which media is clean and clear and which one is fully involved in this

dirty game of manipulating election through the fourth estate of democracy, but this

phenomenon has affected the role of media during election. The emergence of regional

24 hours news channel and also regional edition of newspapers in different states in

recent years have spread this phenomenon more in assembly election than the national

election.

It is noted that in liberal democracies also the elections are going on American and in our

country also a lot of glamour and glitz is now being attached to election in new era of

mass media and due to new technology. The age-old institution of politics has taken

thousands of years to shape and mould itself but the media especially the mass media are

just a hundred odd years old. Thanks to technology through their reach and accessibility,

the media have created a lot of clout around themselves. The potential of mass media in

persuading and manipulating the public in taking decisions which they may not be

inclined to, had there been no mass media, is a subject matter of much academic

discussions and empirical research. Although there have been no definitive studies to

suggest that the voting decisions are based on mass media stimuli alone, one school of

thoughts believes that the individual is protected in two ways from direct ‘manipulation’

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by the media. On the one hand, media messages are received indirectly through the

opinion leaders. On the other hand, a number of research scholars feel the media set the

agenda during elections, by choosing which issues to highlight and which to ignore the

media, feel the critics, take on a partisan role. The ‘agenda setting’ theory has received a

lot of attentions by researchers. A number of studies do suggest that the issues in media

focus also become election issues. The syndrome of paid news which is visible during

election is the results of new era of mass media. It is time to take action against this

menace otherwise in coming years during election this phenomenon will have major

threat to the democratic set up of country.

If media had reported the matter objectively, if no better, the elections outcomes could be

different. The feeling about media objectivity is the major concern among scholars,

researchers and social scientists. There are number of researcher and analysts who

question the adequacy of mass media. According to them Mass media are inadequate

sources of information. They question its purity and adequacy. These researchers and

analysts do not accept mass media as the mirror of the society rather than the ‘flashlight’.

Hence, the audience do not get a complete image of the political scene. That’s why the

father of modern Journalism Walter Lippmann said ‘news and truth were not necessarily’

the same thing and needed to be clearly distinguished. In the world of news, however, the

issues are less deeply rooted. They flow from candidate, events and information.

Media must pick up people’s issues and focus on them during elections. There is a

growing disconnect between political masters and people and media should effectively

bring it out in open. Manifesto of any political party is an important document during

elections. But rather than going deep into it and analyzing that whether it reflects the

concern of the people or not , media tends to just gloss over important points and then

forget about it. However the role may be enhanced according to the demand of voters in

the age of information based society. But media role is not only to inform the electorate,

the responsibility of fourth estate is also to put the issues which is in the better interest of

country and democracy. The role of media as an agenda setter has transformed in the 24

hours news channels era. Earlier the active role as agenda setting of press was not visible

as now. Now the media set the agenda for the day, for the week, for the month. Now the

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election issues are not stick to one or two, it is fragmented in the era of mass media

because in market and driven and due to competition it is not possible for the media to

stick only on one issues.

The opinions about media can be divided broadly as of liberal functionalist and radical

functionalists. Both the schools of thought have propounded their views based on

empirical research and survey technique. Whereas the classical radical tradition sees the

media as agencies of mystification that ‘bend reality’ and engender false consciousness,

the liberal tradition assumes a much greater degree of affinity between media, reality and

the public. The media are assumed to reflect rather shape society.

The historian tradition argues that the mass media have changed society by modifying

time and place. The political tradition argues that even if media do not change the minds

of most of the voters, they have changed the political process. Modern media have

changed the conduct of elections, selection of political leaders.

Media bias especially in times of election in the democratic country is undeniable as

reflected in the analysis of various media messages, research studies and expert

comments on the subject. In India the feeling is that while the mainstream media are

liberal, the local and vernacular press by and large tend to favour the party in power.

India has the distinction of publishing the maximum number of newspapers.

Nation’s political agenda once set up by the political leaders was now decided by the

media who control which facets of politics will be reported and which ignored. Similarly,

candidate in the past needed the backing of the political parties to projet themselves but

the functions now is increasingly performed by the mass media.

It is also noted that in the satellite news channel age opinion polls have flourished like the

growth of 24 hours news channels in India. Do opinion polls affect the election outcome

it’s a subject of more empirical research but the experts, media professionals and political

leaders also believe that it affect the opinion of voters, who is not decided yet in favour

for any party or alliance. Another question raised on the opinion polls surveys are related

to their success rate. There is a perception in India that poll surveys always goes wrong.

But this study found different trend after the analysis of exit polls results and actual

CHAPTER 7


results. The trend is not as bad is as seen. The reason to see opinion polls as failure is that

in Loksabha elections the results were not near to the actual outcome except 2014

General Loksabha election. But positive side of opinion polls looked in the prediction of

state elections, despite of few worst and bad predictions the number of very good

predictions in state elections are high. Politics over the years has become a booming

business with hundreds of opinion polls held by various organizations, media and interest

groups at the time of an election. However in this study maximum respondents and

experts accept the bandwagon or underdog effect of opinion polls. Another area of

criticisms against opinion and exit polls has been that the discipline has gone from the

social scientist domain to the market researcher who probably were not adequately

equipped to handle serious matters as the political behavior of the masses. It is felt that

market researchers lack political sensitivity which is needed for a research of this kind.

If we go through the hypotheses of this study that mass media play an active role during

elections. It is noted that during the time of Independence and first General election the

print media dominance can be visible in elections also. And the trend was same till the

few years back when the 24 hours news channels came in the scene. However in all time

media was effective in the scene but the role of mass media changed in the era of

television media, electronic media and social media. During the time of print the

candidates had to focus on person to person contact in the run-up to the elections, the

political rallies were planned for the leaders of the political parties to reach the voters. All

these campaigning style is still exist during the election now in the era of mass media and

social media, but now mass media has become important tools for the political parties

and candidates to reach new voters. after television the major political parties appointed

television-styled politicians to face camera. Television news channel also helped in free

and fair elections. The incidents of booth capturing and violence during elections have

minimized. Actually, after the 24-hours news channel the scenario of politics changed.

Now in the time of social media the role of media has taken different shape now. Now the

parties and leaders have social media department to connect with the people and to reach

the electorate on different issues. It seems that media is more active today, however the

role has changed but the basic functions of media to inform and to educate the people is

still the same.

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The second hypotheses is also proved that in the age of new mass media the traditional

role of political parties and leaders to reach electorate has been usurped. However

traditional role is still working, it is the new role of media which has dominant in the

elections times.

Third and fourth hypotheses of the research is related to opinion polls surveys. There is a

perception that exit polls and opinion polls are failed in India. The experts and media

professionals also see it as below the average. Poll surveys are not free from the biases of

agencies and there is a need to improve the techniques of the surveys so that it can be

believed. However the analysis of the exit and actual results show the picture little

different in the favour of poll surveys. But no doubt that the surveys in India needs to be

change drastically to change the perception of the people of the largest democracy of the

world, because the people watch it closely during the election times.

From the analysis of the available literature and primary data it is also proved that paid

news is major threat to the level playing field of election. There is a timeless need to stop

this menace with the help of all institutions of democracy, so that the credibility of media

can’t be blamed.

Elections in India are just not a process to select the representative. It is a festival in the

world largest democracy of the world. And it is also reflected on the functioning of the

media. However Indian media are criticized for their obsession with politics and

elections, but the role of Indian media can’t be under estimate because in a country of

democratic set up like ours not everything but many things go through the way media is

covering the events.

7.1 LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER SCOPE OF THE STUDY

In western democracies a lot of research have been done on the role of media during

elections and its effect on the public opinion but in India it has still to go a long way. And

it was the main limitation of this research work that the literature related to this topic is

not available much. However positive side of the story is that after the Bachelor and

Master degree course started in Journalism and Mass Communication subject in the

different universities of India the research in this subject on different topics have started.

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In India and any democratic society of the world there can’t be democracy without free

and fair media. In this sense democracy and media are inter dependent. Media function

freely on its speech and expression only in a democracy. Both are necessary to each one.

Any democratic society expects that media will provide platform for the leaders to

communicate with large section of the society to encourage the diverse views of the

country. Scope are very much in the research in the field of media in India and hope in

coming years the different aspects of the subject will be touched by the researcher.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BIBLIOGRAPHY


REFERENCES

1. Angus Campbell et.Al.eds, Elections and the Political Order, pp. 40-62

2. Arvind Rajagopal, Politics after television, (2004)

3. B holden, the nature of democracy, pp. 66 .

4. Bernard Berlson, Paul F Lazarsfeld and William N. Mc Phee, Voting: a study of

opinion formation in a presidential campaign (Chicago university of Chicago

press,1954) p.234 for “hypodermic effect”.


6. C.p.bhambri, Indian politics since independenc, volume 2,pp.116-117,

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BIBLIOGRAPHY


INTERVIEWS

1. Interview with Chief Election Commissioner of India Mr. V.S.Sampath

2. Interview with former Chief Election Commissioner of India Mr. S.Y.Quraishi

3. Interview with Mr. Sanjay Kumar, Director, CSDS

4. Interview with Mr. Ajay Singh, Editor, Governance Now, Magazine

5. Interview with Mr. Pankaj Srivastava, Senior Journalist, IBN-7 News Channel

6. Interviw with Mr. Shankar Arnimesh, Senior Journalist, Focus News Channel

7. Interview with Mr.Shamsher Singh, Senior Journalist, India Tv News Channel

8. Interview with Mr. Sanjay Baragta, Senior Journalist, Aaj Tak News channel

9. Interview with Mr Dileep Mandal, Senior Journalist

10. Interview with Mr. Dinesh Gautam, Senior Journalist, Sahara Samay News Channel

APPENDICES

Questionnaire Note: This questionnaire is related to the research on ‘Role of media in elections’.

The focus of study and the hypothesis of research is based on opinion poll surveys in

India, so out of 20 closed-ended questions maximum are related to opinion poll

surveys. Please give your opinion. It is confidential.

Name- Age-

Occupation/Designation- Experience-

Area- Contact no.-

1.Opinion polls have decisive role in election outcome? Do you agree?

1. Yes 2. No 3. Not fully agree 4. Can’t Say.

Answer-

2.Do media influences your views on opinion poll surveys during election ?


Answer-

3. Opinion poll surveys during elections in India are not successful?


Answer-

4.Opinion poll survey should be continued in India. Do you agree?


Answer-

5. Opinion polls are affected by the biases of agency or groups who conduct polls?


Answer-

6. Political parties who get positive results in pre-poll surveys can take advantage.

Do you agree?


Answer-

7. Opinion surveys need social researcher to conduct the surveys with proper

techniques?


Answer-

8. Media organization love opinion polls. Do you agree?


Answer-

9. Media referred as the fourth estate but some analysts reckon opinion polls as the

fifth estate. Do you agree?


Answer-

10. Media should endorse political parties during elections in India like Britain. Do

you agree?


Answer-

11.During election media involves itself in election campaign news rather than focus

on grassroot issues? Do you agree?


Answer-

12. After emergence of 24 hours news channel, the interaction between voters and

politcal parties have increased. Do you agree?


Answer-

13.Is media playing effective role during elections?


Answer-

14. Paid news concept should not exist in Media. Do you agree?


Answer-

15.Media is less rural concern than urban. Do you agree?


Answer-

16. Do you think media organizations have many types of biases inside or outside

the organization?


Answer-

17. Do you think reporters, news producer and anchors have more work pressure?


Answer-

18.Do you think reporters, news producer and anchors work under the pressure of

management?


Answer-

19. Media value the commercial concern more than the people’s concern during

elections.


Answer-

20. Do media instituitions provide education according to the time and demand of

organization?


Answer-

Thanks for response and giving me your valuable times.

Niraj kumar

V.S.SAMPATH, CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER

1.Why 9 phase election in 2014 General Election. In 2009 it was in 5 phases, why 9 this

time?

V.S.Sampath--- It is not correct to say 9 phases, it is 9 poll days. You can’t compare

phases of last election with polling of this election. Poll days gives greater flexibility for

election management organization with regards to better utilization of resources.

2. Why Six-phase election in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh for the seats of 40 and 80

respectively. You don’t think it will affect on the voter enthusiasm to come and vote due

to polling on many phases?

V.S.Sampath--- As far as voter is concern it will not affect their enthusiasm. One voter

has to vote only one vote. It will beneficial for election machinery and political parties

also. It’s a win win for everybody. Five, six and eight are artificial numbers. Years back

there was poll dates in Indian election. When we do exercise on polling dates we do care

of weather and other things also.

3. In last five states assembly elections it was seen that many senior leaders violated the

Model Code of Conduct. Will you strongly deal this time on the cases of Model Code of

Conduct?

V.S. Sampath--- Model Code of Conduct is mainly for ensuring minimum standard in

campaignig. We had issued advisory to political parties, we have made an appeal to

political parties in this regard.

4. What’s your plan to increase voter turnout in Loksabha?

V.S.Sampath--- We have SVEEP measures. We will intensify it. We will give more

attention to electoral roll. Those who got left out from the electoral roll, we will give

them opportunity to add them in roll.

5. Do you think that high voter turnout will decrease the impact of caste, region, religion

based vote bank, which is called identity based vote bank?

V.S.Sampath--- Correct. When there is higher voter turnout the the impact of undue

influences and undesirable influences minimize.

6. Since 2004 Election Commission of India is trying to ban Opinion and Exit poll. Exit

poll is now banned since 2009, Opinion poll is not ban. Any disappointment over it that

ECI is not successful to ban it?

V.S.Sampath--- It’s not a matter of disappointment and repentance. We are doing our

duty. What we should do we are doing, it is lawmakers work to take decision on it.

V.S.SAMPATH, CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER

7. You have increased the expenditure limits of 40 lakh to 70 lakh in parliamentary

elections. Do you think that in poverty based country like India it will not provide level

playing field.

V.S.Sampath--- There is conflicting and contradictory views. Some people are saying that

40 lakh is unrealistic. This is again response to request made by all political parties in the

all political parties meet to raise the limit.

8. What’s your appeal to political parties and voters.

.V.S.Sampath --- we have earned very good name in democratic credentials. We should

improve this credentials more. We have always requested political parties and leaders to

keep up the level of dignity of your campaigning. Our appeal once again would be

election come and go, people win people lose and that’s all different, but the rules of the

game have to be played fairly. We would request all the political parties to cooperate in

the largest interest of the democracy.

S.Y.QURAISHI, FORMER CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER

1. General Election to Lok Sabha is the largest human management exercise in the

world. After every human efforts, do Election Commission of India also pray god for

success of this exercise?

S.Y.Quraishi --- God’s favour the brave. God help also include in our work.

2. In 2009 it was 5 phase election during your time in Election Commission of India as

an Election Commissioner. What do you think about the phases this time?

S.Y.Quraishi--- The reporting on newspapers and news channels is Kite flying about

phases of election. I don’t know on what basis they are saying this. But basic issue why

Election Commission of India conduct elections in multi phases. We take care of all

things and first among all is security. There is a security threats during election in our

country. We want that not a single life lost during elections. All political parties leaders

demand Para military forces in their constituencies because despite of competent local

police, question raises on them that they are working under political pressure. Five phase

will be definetly it may be six phase this time also.

3. How an exclusive phase will be helpful in naxal affected areas?

S.Y.Quraishi--- Earlier we focussed on easy going states first where election can be done

easily in terms of naxal and security threats. But after the experience of West Bengal

assembly elections 2011 where deployment of advance forces in naxal affected areas

were more helpful in election, ECI changed the strategy. It gives extra advantage to Para

military forces to understand the areas where they are deployed in naxal affected areas.

So now in few first phases we conduct elections on extremism affected areas exclusively.

4. How bureaucracy work very efficiently during elections.

S.Y.Quraishi--- It is noticeable that Indian bureaucracy which consider as incompetent

work very perfectionally during elections in the world largest human management

exercise. We identify bureaucrats who is not neutral. Zero tolerance in this.

5. Political parties don’t take model code of conduct seriously?

S.Y.Quraishi--- I am not with you that parties are not serious. If political parties were not

serious the election would be chaotic. Model code of conduct is effective, we can’t hang

who violates it. Model code of conduct has moral pressure. We should not forget that the

Model code of conduct initiative was started by political parties with the help of local

administration in keral in the 60s.

6. Do you think it will be correct to ban Opinion poll?

S.Y.QURAISHI, FORMER CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER

S.Y.Quraishi--- Opinion poll may be paid. People say there is no significance difference

due to Opinion poll. What is the meaning of significant difference if one vote can be

affected by the wrong information. It is not fair with the process of election.

7. The vote percentage are increasing with every elections in last 5 years. What do you

think this time the voter turnout will be? And there is a difference between the voter

turnout in North and South India? How Election commission of India will address it?

S.Y.Quraishi--- I think the trend is established. According to me the voter turnout will

be between 65 to 70 percent. Voters are aware now, voter education has played an

important part in it.

8. How do you see this Loksabha Election ?

S.Y.Quraishi--- This will be the biggest election in the world. Voters will prove their

maturity in this election once again.

SANJAY KUMAR, DIRECTOR, CSDS 1. How do you see the prospect of opinion polls and exit polls in India?

Sanjay Kumar--- The prospects of Opinion poll and Exit poll are bright in a democratic

country like India due to regular elections. While candidates do spend time in their

constituency but they fine it difficult to assess people,s demands so large number of

candidates depend upon the opinion poll for gathering informtation about the

constituency problem. Parties use opinion poll to assess strength and weakness of

candidates before giving tickets.

2. If we talk about the Loksabha General Elections, do you think the 2014 GE exit polls

success will boost the morale of pollsters in India?

Sanjay Kumar--- Yes why not, most of the polls were correct in making the assessment

so there is every reason for the pollster to celebrate the conduct of exit poll and opinion

poll during the 2014 elections.

3. Tell me in details about the 1999 and 2004 exit polls results which is consider as a

worst in the history of Loksabha Exit Polls?

Sanjay Kumar--- The 2004 exit polls were considered worst as all the polls which

predicted BJP or NDA coming to power while it was the congress or the UPA which

came to power. This is the worst record of the exit polls in india. 1999 was not bad , it

was more or less in the range, at least it did not predict a wrong winner, the seats may be

less or more.

4. How do you compare the Exit polls of States assembly elections and Loksabha

elections in terms of Predicting the mood voters and number of seats?

Sanjay Kumar---It is much easier to make estimate of vote share or seat if the parties in

political contest are few, naturally in state assembly elections the parties are limited while

in national elections there are various parties which contest election, so it is easier to

estimate vote and seat in state assembly elections compared to Loksabha elections. Also

it is much easier for states which witness bi polar contest compared to states which

witness multipolar contests.

5. It also seems that in major multiparty states, exit and opinion polls got wrong? What

do you think?

Sanjay Kumar---Yes in multi party contest, if there are various parties contesting election

estimating vote share is much more difficult to compared if there are only two parties.

We need a much bigger sample if more parties are contesting elections.

AJAY SINGH, EDITOR,GOVERNANCE NOW 1. What’s your view on Opinion Polls?

A.S.- It’s a tool. Basically it’s a tool to know the mood of the people during elections.

What people think we can know to use this tool. It is OK.

2. Do you think Opinion Poll play any decisive role in the outcome of the election

results?

A.S.- I don’t think that opinion poll play any decisive role in the outcome of the election

results. Of course, Opinion Polls have a kind of effect on news level, on the media. I

think people are by and large not affected by opinion polls.

3. Why Opinion polls are not successful in India comparison to western democracy like

United States of America and Britain?

A.S.- There is homogeneity in western society, homogeneity in social structure. In

western democracy economic disparity, social disparity not occur, like in India. That’s

the reason opinion poll is not successful in India.

4. Do you think pollsters or poll agency change the actual results of opinion poll in

favour of any party?

A.S.- Yes, this is fact. Cant say for every pollsters. But I know the pollsters who changed

the percentage in favour of particular party.

5. Many questions raise on the continuity of pre-poll surveys in India. Do you think it

should be continued in India?

A.S.- I know it but what I think in the basis of my journalistic experience despite of

many pros and cons Pre-poll surveys should be continued.

6. What’s your take on new phenomenon of Paid news in the era of 24 hours news

television?

A.S.-Paid news concept is against the very existence of the media. It is in submersive

nature. If you are printing news by taking money, it is not good. It is subortive the very

existence of the Industry. Bahut Ganda hai.

PANKAJ SRIVASTAVA,JOURNALIST, IBN-7

1. What do you think on Pre-poll surveys in Indian elections?

P.S. --- Pre-poll survey or exit poll is not a good exercise. History of opinion poll survey is not

bright in India. Maximum election surveys were wrong in past except few. There is somewhere

ideological similarity between surveys and the current government. In 2004 election maximum

surveys were in favour of Atal-government, but during reporting I felt that Atal government is not

going to return. Some case was happened during the last U.P. assembly election. Poll-surveys

lack professional skills. People don’t openly answer to surveys questions.

2. Do you think media, the fourth estate of democracy is playing its role in India?

P.S.--- ’Fourth Estate’ term is a self-acclaimed word. I don’t think that Media is a ‘Fourth

Estate’. Yes, Media play the role of watchdog. Media is not free like the three pillars of

Democracy Opinion survey is only a part of media exercise, not more than this.

3. Is there biases in media organizations and opinion surveys?

P.S.--- Biases should be erased. There is biasness in media person. Personal thought

overshadowed the reality. There is need of real professionalism in media and surveys.

4. Do you think Media concern is more commercial than people’s concern?

P.S.---Media concern commercial more than anything. They also take care of people’s concern

but focus is on commercial.

5. What’s your take on the new phenomenon in the journalism called paid news?

P.S.---There is major credit loss to journalism because of paid news. Now you can by news. Paid

news is ‘Dhokha’ with news viewers.

6. Do you think media professionals work under the pressure?

P.S.---Media person lacks time to work on news. TV Reporters don’t get enough time to get into

the depth of news. Anchors and news producers don’t have time to analyze the topic. That’s why

electronic media is in a follow up role.

SHANKAR ARNIMESH, JOURNALIST,FOCUS NEWS

1. What’s your view on opinion poll during elections?

S.A.---In India opinion polls are not scientific. The sample size of the opinion polls are

very small in comparison to total electorate. Generally the sample size does not exceed

30-35 thousand. During my career as a reporter I didn’t see any agent of any polling

agency at any polling booth. I always surprised how it all happened. I can mention here

an incident during 2004 general elections a media adviser of the senior leader of BJP told

the poll agency that increased the seats of BJP from 240 to 272. Generally the poll agents

do all exercise in a close room. There are few who go to the voters and take their opinion.

Opinion polls are impactful on floating votes and definetly it works.

2. How can opinion polls accurate in predicting elections results?

S.A.---In India opinion polls can be successful if we do it proper techniques, with

scientific methods and with big sample size.

3. How after the emergence of television news channel changed the style of politics?

S.A.-Television has changed the vision of politicians. After television the major political

parties appointed television-styled politicians to face camera. The spokesperson of

political parties take special care of their dress. In BJP Prakash Jawdekar change his dress

between every press conferences. Television news channel also helped in free and fair

elections. The incidents of booth capturing and violence during elections have

minimized. Actually, after the 24-hours news channel the scenario of politics changed.

4. How paid news is direct threat to the Indian media and Indian democracy?

S.A.-The impact channel has degraded because you are loosening your credibility. News

is diluted. Content is diluted. The news channel is now output based rather than input

based. After the open paid news in journalism the credibility is on the stake.

5. How media is playing an important role in society to raise the issues concerning

common man?

S.A.---After expansion of television and different mode of media the voters are more

aware. We can say that media is a parallel system against government. Because people

complain about their problems through media.

6. Do you think to curb the money power in elections, electoral reforms is needed?

S.A.-Election reform is needed. The politicians and parties expense money during

elections, that’s why they are free to expense unlimited amount. Politicians manage

media on the expenses of money. If election commission spend money during elections

many malpractices of elections can be curbed. Paid news is one of them. In India

SHANKAR ARNIMESH, JOURNALIST,FOCUS NEWS

channels have not there revenue model. Few are depended on Ad and few are in loss. The

media should be operated through trust.

The ownership of media is not concern about the Nation service, it is based on profit

making. Media is not mere a business, it should be different.

7. What’s your take on paid news?

S.A.- The Paid news syndrome came in 2009 general elections. However, before the

2009 elections many newspapers were started to to publish paid news. We can see in

same newspaper stories which claim victory of two different parties candidates from the

same constituency. Through the paid news syndrome news are affected. In the era of paid

news the journalism is on sale. It is deeply institionalise in journalism. Infact few senior

journalists are get salaries from the big corporate houses.

8. Do you think media is showing way to the government or it is managed by the

government?

S.A.-During NDA regime government was on backfoot due to media. Various scams

were surfaced during Vajpayee government regime. BJP leaders often told to reporters

why you all criticize us, focus on congress. Media was more active at that time. During

the first tenure of Manmohan Singh’s government the media was supportive towards

government. But during present tenure many scams have been unearthed. In states, media

is not soft to the government, it is because of good governance that many governments

repeated. The government try to manage media and somehow media is managed. That’s

why media is loosing its credibility. Many journalists were found in radia tape, which

shows how the few influential journalists are corrupted.

SANJAY BARAGTA,JOURNALIST,AAJ TAK

1. What is the role of media during elections ?

S.B.--- After independence the mood of election is judged from the rural areas. But

now it is judged from the air conditioned room that’s why media is not able to judge

the mood of the voters. Maximum voters of India is from village and media is more

focussed on urban areas. It is very tough to reach on conclusion on the basis of

information from urban voters.

But why this happened?

S.B.--- This is because of the market oriented media. Newspaper has become product.

Media houses want maximum profit from minimum resources, which is possible

through focusing on urban market. television news channels also focused on the

urban news only. Earlier newspapers were focused on rural area but it is not the

situation now.

Why journalism is not passion now?

S.B.--- Now the ethics and idealism of journalism have been the matter of past. I

accept that I am not doing journalism. I see that which news can be sale, I mean can

give more TRPs.

What’s your reaction on Paid news?

S.B.--- Paid news is deception with the readers and viewers of the news. We take

money for the advertisements but present it as news, which is basically news Paid

news. Journalist are not getting money through paid news, it is media houses

5. How the role of media has been changed after emergence of 24 hours news

channels?

S.B.--- There are many positives have emerged after the emergence of 24 hours news

channels. In free and fair elections channels have contributed a lot. But there is a

threat also in the form of paid news. If we talk about Hindi and English news

channels hindi news channels are confused. Don’t think on serious content, think on

TRPs only. English channels are followed by the people who make opinion and

decide on it.

6 Do you think media is in role of agenda setter?

S.B.--- Media set the agenda. Media set the agenda of Anna Hazare movement. Set

the agenda of IC-814. Jessica lal case was also one of them. Issues related to elections

are fragmented.

SHAMSHER SINGH,JOURNALIST, INDIA TV

1.What’s your views on opinion poll surveys during election?

S.S.--- Opinion polls across world are a vital and intrinsic part of elections. But given the

vastness of India and a society which is split down the middle because of multiple

primordial identities like caste ,religion etc and loyalties created by these

factors….creates a huge problem while pollsters are framing questions for opinion polls.

Also sample size is often so small for these polls that more often than not it is likely to

throw wrong results. I think an effort is required to make these polls more scientific,

where questions are properly framed and options for answers should not be vague. Also

pollsters needs to undergo rigorous training so that when they interact with people they

are able to feel the pulse of the people and thus know that answers given are true or not.

2.Do opinion polls play any decisive role in election outcome? If yes, then how?

S.S.---Well, opinion polls are a new phenomenon in election covereage in India. And if

we look at parliamentary or state elections held in last two decades, it certainly has not

played any decisive role or has not influenced the outcome of the elections. In 2004 all

opinion polls predicted return of NDA to power at centre but it was decisive defeat in

elections. If we look at recently concluded assembly election in Kerala, all opinion polls

predicted a landslide for UDF but ultimately result showed a wafer thin margin and it

narrowly made it. So, I think Indian voters are politically matured and do not get swayed

by what opinion polls are predicting.

3.How can media play effective role during elections?

S.S.---Media must pick up people’s issues and focus on them during elections. There is a

growing disconnect between political masters and people and media should effectively

bring it out in open. Manifesto Of any political party is an important document during

elections. But rather than going deep into it andanalyzing that whether it reflects the

concern of the people or not , media tends to just gloss over important points and then

forget about it. This is an important document which must be taken to the people and

scrutinized and reported. Apart from this, media also has to play the role of a watch dog

and intervene effectively whenever and wherever elections rules are violated but sadly it

is all the time looking for sensational news and thus often ignore important news items

which are more relevant for people at large.

4. Which factors influence media during elections?

S.S.---Unlike some European countries where media houses endorse one political party

or another, in India media is supposed to be neutral. But is it really? Every media house

has its own political biases and it reflects in its reporting of events. Its just does not


happen at the time of elections. In fact it builds up in the run up to the elections. And then

during elections it comes to the fore.

5 .What’s your take on paid news syndrome?

S.S.---Well, nothing worst could have happened to media than this phenomenon of paid

news. You take money from political party or individual candidates to publish news that

will benefit that political party or individual candidate. It amounts to creating a false

image and thus influence the public opinion wrong way. It gives an edge to political party

or the candidate which has money power and put others at a disadvantage who can not

buy space in media. If journalism has to be fair, which it ought to be, then this has to stop

immediately.

6. How Paid news negatively affected the profession of Journalism?

S.S.---Indeed it has. There was a time when people used to accept reporting in media at

its face value. Now there is a general complain ‘ sab beeke hue hain’. Journalists who

were earlier respected and now viewed with disdain. And media houses are themselves

responsible for it. And if they want to redeem themselves and get back the lost glory then

this practice of paid news has to stop immediately.

7. Do media instituitions provied education according to the demand of organization? Do

you think there is need to relook?

S.S.---Well we cannot expect media institution to churn out professionals according to

the demand of various organisations. Off late, a new trend has emerged where big media

houses have set up their own shops to train young people who wants to come into this

field. And they are tutored as p[er the demand of the organisation and absorbed at the

end of the course. So these people are trained almost on job. But there is certainly a need

to relook where not only young minds but also journalists already in profession are also

educated with the new emerging trends in media globally so that general standard can be

raised.

8. Please share your experience as media professionals. Which types of changes you

have seen in Journalism during this period?

S.S.---Well media has undergone tremendous transformation in last two decades after the

arrival of cable television. Earlier people were used to reading newspapers with their

morning tea. Now they are updated every minute about the developments. New

technology has emerged. Internet is available on people’s mobile and they can log in

whenever they want no matter where they are. This connectivity has brought in a great

dissemination of information. That is the brighter side of developments. Down side is that


a new concept has emerged which is called ‘infotainment’. And mad race for trp has

driven almost all hindi news channel to embrace this concept. And gradually news has

vanished and entertainment has taken lot of air time. This certainly needs to be changed.

For entertainment there are channels to show them. News channels must stick to the news

business.

DILEEP MANDAL,JOURNALIST

1. How paid news is a big threat for the Media?

D.M.--- Paid news is not a new phenomenon. It emerged and felt in 2009 General

election in broad manner. This is very bad because it affect the freedom of people in

democracy. It affects the right of people to choose because of wrong information in

the shape of news, which is basically paid. Earlier it was on the Entertainment and

Business pages of newspapers, now it is on political page. News was manipulated

through reporters in early phases but after paid news the chain of reporter is no more

in the scene. Now media houses directly talk to political parties and leaders on rate

cards. We can say that small scale industry is now institutional because earlier

reporter there now media organization itself.

It means that the role of reporters in news have been declined?

D.M.--- Infact in Board of Directors , there is no journalist as its member who talk

about the journalism ethics. Media industry looks for profit and role of journalist in

policy making of media organization is very small. Media houses decide what should

be aired for viewers. Why in 2009 the paid news syndrome came in limelight, it

might come in earlier years. Year 2008 and 2009 was the year of economic crisis in

the whole world. India was also affected by it. Due to recession the advertisement

growth rate recorded negative. In this situation packaged was given by government

and media house managed money for itself. But there was no economic recession in

media houses. Media houses expanded their business during these period. Sixty news

channels were opened and newspapers also expanded. But on the name of economic

recession Media restructured itself. They cut short the strength of their work force,

increased the rate of advertisement, got government package and earned money from

paid news. So it can be said that it was not recession years for media.

How Paid news is affecting the Indian democracy?

D.M.--- According to Chowmsky and Herman media is campaign for propaganda. It

is a medium for high class society to govern, because minority have to govern on

majority. The fourth pillar of democracy is also the fourth pillar of the high class

society. Due to paid news media is losing its credibility. The traditional means of

election campaign was discontinued by T.N. Seshan on the name of electoral reforms

but leaders and political parties used other means. Media is one of it. Paid news is

also a part of it.

Why the syndrome of paid news is less in Kerala and Taminnadu in comparison to

other major states?

D.M.--- Kerala and Tamilnadu both have special features. In both two states major

media group is governed and controlled by the political parties. Directly there is no

DILEEP MANDAL,JOURNALIST

paid news but control of media by political parties also goes to same way as paid

news.

There are many theory which talk about media. In your view media is following which

theory ?

D.M.--- There is not an special theory working for media and media is working on it.

All theories are working collectively.

Political parties are also against the paid news.

D.M.--- Political parties who govern are not generally against the media related issues

because they manage media through many ways. Government increase the number of

advertisements before the election period. Media don’t decide how to think on

particular topic but it decide that on which topic or issues people should think over.

Is it possible to stop the paid news?

D.M.--- It can’t be stopped but a something and small can be done. How can you say

that some particular story is Paid news. It is very tough to stop this. But the people

and organizations who are indulge in Paid news should be given less importance. If

they will lose the faith of readers and viewers then paid news will not exist.

Do you think Mass media is fulfilling its role in Indian context?

D.M.--- Media is not it its role. Media is in favor of powerful and high level group. If

somebody manage to come, apart from this society, this is because of Power of

Democracy.

DINESH GAUTAM,JOURNALIST,SAHARA SAMAY

1. How media is playing an important role in the deepening of democracy in India?

D.G.--- In democracy majority of people’s view is necessary on any topic, issues or

subject. Media play an important role to connect the people on any issues. We all are

attached with information round the clock through Mass Media. Information empower us

which is possible through the Media.

2. How the emergence of 24 hours news channel have changed the campaigning style of

political parties and delivery of news during election?

D.G. --- Politicians want to catch the eyeballs. They want to attract the people through

Mass Media. It is easy for them to put their views from the platform of media rather

than to campaign door to door or voter to voter. After the emergence of different types of

Mass Media many positives have emerged but there are negatives also. Among negatives

paid news is one of them.

3. How the present era is different from that of Newspapers/Radio dominance era?

D.G.--- After emergence of 24-hour news channel media is more impactful. Voters are

able to see the incident addition to listening and reading it. In India, a major portion of

voters are not literate, after the news channel they are able to make their opinion through

watching television.

4. Do you think in elections politicians try to manage media in their favour?

D.G.--- Political parties try to manage media through different means during elections

and they try to set their agenda. But sometimes they get success, sometimes not.

5. What your views on media impact through different phases?

D.G.--- In past media raises the issues against established government. They try to check

and balance the government. But the trend is not common now because media

organizations have their own interests. They try to take unusual favour from government

through media.

6. What your take on Paid news syndrome?

D.G.--- It is a dangerous syndrome. Paid news is presented like a news item which is

dangerous for the democracy because news has its impact on voters.

7. What your views on functioning of Media in contemporary India?

D.G.--- Many times and again and again important news are missed both in print and

electronic media. Infact print media is in same way on which electronic is following.

DINESH GAUTAM,JOURNALIST,SAHARA SAMAY

Print media present the news like masala. It focus on layout, printing style rather than

content of the issues. News is presented like Masala News.

8. What your take on opinion poll surveys during elections?

D.G.--- The Election Commission of India have to decide that whether opinion poll

surveys are just taking opinions of voters or they are trying to make the opinion. If it is

just for taking opinion then no problem, but if it is not then it is problematic for

democracy.

9. Media is less rural concern than urban. How can we expand our reach to rural issues,

which will help in real democracy?

D.G.--- Rural people have different neis. Due to market media focus on urban centric

news. But we have to take care of the rural issues. We can focus on rural issues through

them who have their interest in rural areas.

10. As a media professional do you think Journalism and Mass communication

institutions provide education according to the demand of media organization?

D.G.--- Some media institutions are providing education according to the line of media

organizations demand. But there are few. Among them are some reputed institutions. But

another problem is that serious candidates are not coming in this field which is a major

concern. Those who are coming are just taking journalism as a profession not as a social

mission.

11. What your views on relation between media and politics?

D.G.--- It has changed drastically. In past wrong was treated as wrong and right was

treated as right. But due to pressure on media sometimes don’t try to focus or cover the

wrong.

12. It is media which is strengthening democracy or vice versa?

D.G.--- It is vice versa, both are strengthening each other.

role of indian media: covering general elections · 2018-07-09 · role of indian media: covering...

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