role of climate change in flood-driven incision of swett creek, utah
TRANSCRIPT
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ESS 490 Frances Lin Prof. Kate Huntington
ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN F L O O D - D R I V E N I N C I S I O N O F S W E T T C R E E K , U TA H
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ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN F L O O D - D R I V E N I N C I S I O N O F S W E T T C R E E K , U TA H S W E T T
ESS 490 Frances Lin Prof. Kate Huntington
©FunCage.com
• site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010) • Sweet Creek of.. drains into… • It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion
than… flash floods with higher peak discharges • Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,
temperature, precipitation… • Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on
landscape evolution in this region? • This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change
in incision pattern and rate
C A S E S T U D Y S W E T T C R E E K , H E N RY M O U N TA I N S , U TA H
Case
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#DrainageArea
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• site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010) • Sweet Creek of.. drains into… • It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion
than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010) • Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,
temperature, precipitation… • Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on
landscape evolution in this region? • This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change
in incision pattern and rate
M O T I VAT I O N
• site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010) • Sweet Creek of.. drains into… • It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion
than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010) • Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,
temperature, precipitation… • Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on
landscape evolution in this region? • This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change
in incision pattern and rate
M O T I VAT I O N
• site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010) • Sweet Creek of.. drains into… • It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion
than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010) • Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,
temperature, precipitation… • Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on
landscape evolution in this region? • This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change
in incision pattern and rate
M O T I VAT I O N
• site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010) • Sweet Creek of.. drains into… • It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion
than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010) • Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,
temperature, precipitation… • Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on
landscape evolution in this region? • This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change
in incision pattern and rate
M O T I VAT I O N
• This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs … estimate changes in incision pattern and rate
!
MODERN !
climate
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WARM
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MODERN!
WARM!
using RegCM
!
climate
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using RegCM!extracted hydrograph
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MODERN!
WARM!
climate
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
R e g C M
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
R e g i o n a l C l i m a t e M o d e l
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
R e g i o n a l C l i m a t e M o d e l _
©CLM Community
R e g C M
• origniated from weather prediction
(IPCC, 2001)
©CLM Community
R e g C M
• origniated from weather prediction • now used in a wide range of
climate application • paleoclimate • anthropogenic climate change
(IPCC, 2001)
©CLM Community
R e g C M
• origniated from weather prediction • now used in a wide range of
climate application • paleoclimate • anthropogenic climate change
• data sets include • climatic state • regional physiographic features
(IPCC, 2001)
©CLM Community
R e g C M
• origniated from weather prediction • now used in a wide range of
climate application • paleoclimate • anthropogenic climate change
• data sets include • climatic state • regional physiographic features
• capable of describing climate*** feedback mechanisms
(IPCC, 2001)
©CLM Community
R e g C M
• origniated from weather prediction • now used in a wide range of
climate application • paleoclimate • anthropogenic climate change
• data sets include • climatic state • regional physiographic features
• capable of describing climate*** feedback mechanisms
• has begun to couple various other models
(IPCC, 2001)
©CLM Community
R e g C M
lithosphere hydrosphere biosphere atmosphere
!
MODERN
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM
heat flux
precipitation
ice albedo
temperature
©FrontierScientists @NASA
temperature precipitation
heat flux ice albedo
©FrontierScientists @NASAS I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM
temperature precipitation
heat flux ice albedo
©FrontierScientists @NASAS I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM
??temperature precipitation
heat flux ice albedo
©FrontierScientists @NASAS I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM
??temperature precipitation
heat flux ice albedo
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM
For complete list of RegCM parameters, please visit NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory at Caltech www.jpl.nasa.gov
©FrontierScientists @NASA
C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM
•Hydrographs (output) • graph • discharge vs. time • next step…
©USGS
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM
•Hydrographs (output) • graph • discharge vs. time • next step…
SAMPLE
©USGS
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM
•Hydrographs (output) • graph • discharge vs. time • next step…
J o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )
C l i m a t e R e - a n a l y s i s D a t a
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM
•Hydrographs (output) • graph • discharge vs. time C l i m a t e R e - a n a l y s i s D a t a
J o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )
Validate the model
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )Validated
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MODERN!
WARM
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2
Prescribe [CO2]
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2
I P C C S P E C I A L R E P O RT
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chage
• don’t need to know… mean • pay attention… trends
Prescribe [CO2]
(IPCC, 2000)
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2
Prescribe [CO2]
I P C C S P E C I A L R E P O RT
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chage
• omit the details • pay attention… trends
(IPCC, 2000)
Glo
bal
Te
mp
era
ture
(°C
)
Year
E m i s s i o n S c e n a r i o s
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2
Prescribe [CO2]
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
Prescribe [CO2]..
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
Results
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
ResultsJ o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
ResultsJ o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )incision pattern
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
ResultsJ o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )incision pattern & rate
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
ResultsJ o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )incision pattern & rate
climate
Initial stage of warming, as ice melts, snowmelt flood events dominate the river discharge pattern and cause rapid incision. !
As warming proceeds and precipitation increases, flash flood events become dominant and incision rate slows.
E X P E C T E D R E S U LT S W I L L B E T E S T E D . .
E X P E C T E D R E S U LT S W I L L B E T E S T E D . .
Initial stage of warming, as ice melts, snowmelt flood events dominate the river discharge pattern and cause rapid incision. !
As warming proceeds and precipitation increases, flash flood events become dominant and incision rate slows.
Initial stage of warming, as ice melts, snowmelt flood events dominate the river discharge pattern and cause rapid incision. !
As warming proceeds and precipitation increases, flash flood events become dominant and incision rate slows.
E X P E C T E D R E S U LT S W I L L B E T E S T E D . .
Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on incision of Swett Creek
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#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
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#FoodSecurity
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#EmissionsPolicy
#Deglaciation
#LandscapeChanges?
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Work Cited Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2000). Summary for Policymaker Emission Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. !Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2001). Working Group I: The Scientific Basis. IPCC. !Johnson P.L., Whipple K. X., and Sklar L.S. (2010). Contrasting bedrock incision from snowmelt and flash floods in the Henry Mountains, Utah. Geological Society of America Bulletin. !
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Frances Lin Undergraduate student Dept. of Earth and Space Sciences [email protected]
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