Roger HoseinCoordinator of the Trade and Economics

Development UnitUWI St Augustine

World GDP growth1961-1970 5.331971-1980 3.801981-1990 3.161991-2000 2.802001-2013 2.59

Table 2: US Natural Gas Base

Year Discoveries (BCF) Proved Reserves (BCF)

2001 23,749 191,7432002 18,594 195,5612003 20,100 197,1452004 21,102 201,2002005 24,285 213,3082006 24,456 220,4162007 30,313 247,7892008 30,707 255,0352009 47,579 283,8792010 48,879 317,6472011 49,882 348,8092012 48,241 322,6702013 52,635 375,3052014 57,893 433,198Source: EIA Database

Rybczynski-Line

S ROG1

OG2

S1 S2

0

Othergoods

Shale intensive goods

T

(Px/Py)0

(Px/Py)1

(Px/Py)0

Table 3: Trend in oil prices

average annual real price variance standard deviation

1985 to 1994 34.49 87.83 9.371995 to 2004 30.65 52.56 7.252005 to 2014 85.57 278.75 16.7

average annual nominal price variance standard deviation

1985 to 1994 20.02 13.79 3.711995 to 2004 24.99 55.53 7.452005 to 2014 80.38 253.54 15.92

Table 4: Trends in some basic economic fundamentals

Date Level of real economic activity2000=100

Persons withJobs (000's)

Transfers and subsidies TT$bn

(a)

Government Recurrent

expenditure TT$bn (a)

Gross Public Sector Debt (TT$bn) (a)

2007 174.3 587.817.9

31.1 38.9

2008 180.3 597.728.8

43.7 40.9

2009 172.4 588.320.5

30.6 45.3

2010 172.7 582.223.9

40.3 50.1

2011 168.2 585.327.4

43.9 53.1

2012 170.3 596.927.8

45.1 68.2

2013 172.9 631.529.6

48.7 70.9

2014p 173.8 643.533.9

55.1 78.1

Source: Review of the TT Economy 2014 and online Central Bank database, a-fiscal year

Figure 2: % Contributions to variation in the unemployment rate in Trinidad and Tobago 

Real GDP Growth - Non-Petroleum

Sector - 2000=100

Real GDP Growth - Petroleum Sector

- 2000=100

Real GDP Growth - Total - 2000=100

av 1997 2002 5.77 10.49 7.19av 2003 2008 6.48 11.85 8.27av 2009 2014 -0.65 -0.23 -0.58

Table 5: Trend in real economic growth

Relative price of oil and gas in Europe Relative price of oil and gas in the USA (2) (1/2) RATIO

1989 10.98193 11.57647 0.9486421990 9.983193 14.93902 0.6682631991 7.889764 14.45638 0.5457641992 8.221277 11.62147 0.7074211993 6.696850 8.702830 0.7695031994 6.500000 8.963542 0.7251601995 6.327138 10.89941 0.5805031996 7.020408 8.028986 0.8743831997 7.800000 8.146245 0.9574961998 6.680628 6.918269 0.9656501999 8.774510 8.506608 1.0314932000 7.292621 7.179669 1.0157322001 7.596273 6.371007 1.1923192002 8.893238 7.855856 1.1320522003 8.013889 5.518650 1.4521472004 8.815668 7.092308 1.2429902005 7.840517 6.437998 1.2178502006 7.532948 9.766272 0.7713232007 8.462617 10.38849 0.8146152008 6.051186 11.30621 0.5352092009 9.572093 15.91774 0.6013482010 9.119129 18.09795 0.5038762011 9.187448 23.70075 0.3876442012 9.590206 34.10507 0.2811962013 10.15529 26.88172 0.377777

Table 6: Stability of relative oil to gas prices

Date: 07/01/14 Time: 09:18, Sample (adjusted): 1991 2013, Included observations: 23 after adjustments, Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend, Series: LRUSA LREUROPE,

Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized Trace 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None 0.314897 8.730850 15.49471 0.3909

At most 1 0.001416 0.032582 3.841466 0.8567

Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level

**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None 0.314897 8.698268 14.26460 0.3121

At most 1 0.001416 0.032582 3.841466 0.8567

Table 7: Results from cointegration testing

RCA with the USA in

gas

RCA with China in gas

RCA with Argentina

RCA with Brazil

RCA with Chile

RCA with Mexico

1999 3.7282000 2.9962001 2.5422002 3.7632003 4.0012004 4.0242005 3.9032006 4.7912007 4.373 5.0762008 3.717 15.534 16.7042009 5.958 0.592 10.008 0.476 5.2242010 3.991 0.85 22.556 3.989 51.494 4.276252011 2.136 0.863 19.534 4.198 14.367 2.674Source: Author’s Computations

Table 8: T&T’s RCA in Natural Gas with selected markets

Table 9: Trade Complementarity

USA China India Caricom Dominican Republic

South America

Argentina Chile BrazilMexico

1999 0.0411 0.0001 0.0001 0.0121 0.0039 0.002 0.0988 0.0067

2000 0.0803 0 0 0.0001 0.0218 0.0002 0.0186 0.125 0.0203

2001 0.0717 0 0.0001 0 0.0196 0.0005 0.0198 0.1022 0.0212

2002 0.0924 0 0.001 0.0528 0.0029 0.0698 0.1821 0.046

2003 0.2294 0 0.0032 0.0925 0.0022 0.1267 0.2806 0.1557

2004 0.3842 0 0.0647 0.0001 0.1636 0.0759 0.2329 0.4497 0.3087

2005 0.277 0 0.0698 0.0001 0.1076 0.0967 0.1637 0.2353 0.1807

2006 0.3056 0.0033 0.1377 0.1619 0.1451 0.293 0.2678 0.197

2007 0.323 0.0159 0.191 0.1456 0.0713 0.2843 0.2374 0.2233

2008 0.2098 0.0135 0.1416 0.1175 0.0913 0.2357 0.1071 0.2045

2009 0.2247 0.0334 0.2271 0.1524 0.1974 0.2536 0.3171 0.375 0.1775

2010 0.059 0.0222 0.0521 0.0597 0.0786 0.1 0.1154 0.1449 0.0547

Source: Author computations

Master List 1999 2012 change gain or loss

333 3.54 1.8 -1.74 loss

334 17.63 4.39 -13.24 loss

342 14.53 5.12 -9.41 loss

343 6.17 24.53 18.37 gain

344 41.9 2.38 -39.51 loss

512 23.67 12.58 -11.08 loss

522 37.1 9.62 -27.48 loss

554 3.35 1.31 -2.04 loss

562 6.19 3.62 -2.57 loss

Source: Computed form COMTRADE data.

Table 10: Display of Gain or Loss in RCA from 1999 to 2012

14

Table 11: Projected labour force demand

level of GDP

Number of people actual and

'supplied' by natural labour force increases

Number of people actual and required to work using a historical

output per worker ratio as the scaling factor

Unmet Domestic Labour needs (000)

1995 40 431.6 431.62012 98.4 596.9 596.92013 100 624.5 624.52014 102.5 634.5 640.6 6.12015 105.1 644.7 656.5 11.82016 107.7 655.1 673.3 18.22017 110.4 665.6 689.9 24.32018 113.1 676.3 706.9 30.62019 116.0 687.2 725.0 37.82020 118.9 698.3 742.8 44.52021 121.8 709.5 761.5 52.02022 124.9 720.9 780.4 59.52023 128.0 732.5 799.8 67.32024 131.2 744.3 820.0 75.72025 134.5 756.2 840.6 84.4

Diversification issue 1: Freeing up wastage in the economy:reform of the macroeconomy, transfer and subsidies (GATEand fuel subsidy) in particular.

Diversification issue 2: Optimal use of remaininghydrocarbon resources: Farm out lease out program andoverhauling Petrotrin.

Diversification issue 3: Improving labour resource allocation:too much jobs being created in the NT sector. If we need toget 175,000 more workers, do we turn to Caricom?

Diversification issue 4: Tobago remains stagnant and in needof urgent attention, maybe we should openly consider themedical tourism approach of Costa Rica via a Lewisian logic?

Diversification issue 5: Opening up economic space: Highwayto Mayaro, finishing PF highway; growth poles married withETECK parks?